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What Does Matter in Economy Today: When Human Psychology Drives Financial Markets 当今经济中什么重要:当人类心理驱动金融市场
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.12.002
Abderrazak Dhaoui

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the impact of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller on the variability of trading. Using a daily data for five international capital markets in developed countries, strong evidence is found. The hypothesis of rationality fails to determine the investors’ trading behavior. The economy is, however, driven by behavioral biases, including more especially animal spirits summarized in investors’ sentiments and beliefs.

本文为理性预期和行为偏差的影响的实证检验提供了第一个证据,包括阿克洛夫和席勒在交易可变性上定义的其他动物精神。利用发达国家五大国际资本市场的每日数据,我们发现了强有力的证据。理性假设不能决定投资者的交易行为。然而,经济是由行为偏见驱动的,尤其是投资者情绪和信念中概括的动物精神。
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引用次数: 9
The Relationship between Growth-Inequality-Poverty Triangle and Environmental Degradation: Unveiling the Reality 增长-不平等-贫困三角与环境退化的关系:揭示现实
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.007
Syeda Anam Hassan, Khalid Zaman, Shah Gul

It is important to recognize that increase in well-being is no longer dependent on further economic growth, but on economic and social well-being, which means that the decline in carbon dioxide emission without reducing real wellbeing and growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the main driving forces affecting short and long-run carbon emissions pattern due to changes in growth, inequality and poverty triangle in Pakistan over the period 1980 – 2011 by using multivariate cointegration approach. This study uses five different models i.e., each model have an important policy implication in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that, on the short run, there is a significant negative relationship between economic growth & carbon emissions and economic growth & poverty while there is a positive relationship between i) economic growth & income inequality; and ii) poverty & income inequality. On the long-run, there is a significant positive relationship between GDP & income inequality, carbon dioxide emissions & income inequality, and poverty & income inequality in Pakistan. On the other side, there is a negative relationship between carbon emissions & economic growth, carbon emissions & income inequality, and economic growth & income inequality. The results of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis show an inverted U-shaped trajectory in relation to economic growth in Pakistan. This study contributes to the debate on the existence and policy relevance of the EKC for Pakistan. The conclusion ensures the sustainability of an urgent need to look beyond the EKC by adopting courageous policy measures of environmental preservation in Pakistan irrespective of the country's level of income. For reduction of CO2 emission, environmental progressive management policies, economic transport system regulations, and low emit fuel consumption by industries are the need of the world.

重要的是要认识到,福祉的增加不再依赖于进一步的经济增长,而是依赖于经济和社会福祉,这意味着二氧化碳排放量的下降不会减少真正的福祉和增长。本研究的目的是利用多元协整方法,探讨1980 - 2011年期间巴基斯坦经济增长、不平等和贫困三角变化对短期和长期碳排放格局的主要驱动因素。本研究使用了五种不同的模型,即每个模型在巴基斯坦的背景下都有重要的政策含义。研究结果表明,在短期内,经济增长与经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系;碳排放与经济增长贫困与经济增长之间存在正相关关系;收入不平等;ii)贫困&;收入不平等。从长期来看,GDP & &;收入不平等,二氧化碳排放;收入不平等和贫困巴基斯坦的收入不平等。另一方面,碳排放& &;经济增长、碳排放;收入不平等与经济增长收入不平等。环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设结果显示巴基斯坦经济增长呈倒u型轨迹。这项研究有助于对巴基斯坦的EKC的存在和政策相关性的辩论。该结论确保了一种迫切需要的可持续性,即无论巴基斯坦的收入水平如何,都要在该国采取大胆的环境保护政策措施,超越环境保护委员会。为了减少二氧化碳的排放,环境渐进式管理政策、经济运输系统法规和工业低排放燃料消耗是世界的需要。
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引用次数: 73
The Role of Financial Engineering in Reducing Financial Risks in Commercial Jordanian Banks 金融工程在降低约旦商业银行金融风险中的作用
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2015.02.001
Ahmad Siam
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引用次数: 0
Leadership Styles at Syrian Universities and the Differences Caused by Sector and Follower Characteristics 叙利亚大学的领导风格及其部门和追随者特征造成的差异
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.11.001
Rami Ayoubi, Bayan Khalifa

This study aims at assessing two modern leadership styles: transactional leadership and transformational leadership at Syrian universities. It also aims at exploring whether or not there are differences in leadership styles caused by sector or follower demographics. A quantitative research paradigm was employed. Using a questionnaire survey method, the data was collected from managerial employees at two public and private universities. In total, 216 questionnaires were analyzed using SPSS. The findings revealed that there is a high level of transactional leadership except one of its dimensions, management by exception-passive, which occurred in a medium level. There is also a high level of transformational leadership except one of its dimensions, individualized consideration, which occurred in a medium level. Furthermore, the study found significant differences in leadership styles that are caused by follower demographics, but not sector. Suggestions for Syrian universities are presented. Proposals for future studies are highlighted in the study.

本研究旨在评估两种现代领导风格:叙利亚大学的交易型领导和变革型领导。它还旨在探讨领导风格是否存在由部门或追随者人口统计造成的差异。采用定量研究范式。采用问卷调查法,从两所公立和私立大学的管理人员中收集数据。采用SPSS软件对216份问卷进行分析。研究结果显示,除了例外被动管理(exception-passive management)这一维度出现在中等水平之外,交易型领导的水平较高。变革型领导也有一个高水平,除了它的一个维度,个性化的考虑,这发生在中等水平。此外,研究发现,领导风格的显著差异是由追随者的人口统计造成的,而不是由行业造成的。对叙利亚的大学提出了建议。在研究中强调了对未来研究的建议。
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引用次数: 3
Sensitivity of trading intensity to optimistic and pessimistic beliefs: Evidence from the French stock market 交易强度对乐观和悲观信念的敏感性:来自法国股市的证据
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.008
Abderrazak Dhaoui , Naceur Khraief

In this paper, we will offer some evidence indicating that investor sentiment plays a central role in explaining trading intensity and market trend changes. Based on both econometric and fuzzy logic approaches, the empirical findings show that pessimistic sentiment has a particularly significant impact on the French financial market trend. Moreover, the results suggest that the impact of pessimism on asset returns exceeds that of optimism as a direct indicator of investor's beliefs. Indirect indicators of agent sentiment present more smoothed effects on these two market components. Our results indicate that incorporating psychological factors in macro-financial models leads to better supervision and control of the main drivers of the markets.

在本文中,我们将提供一些证据,表明投资者情绪在解释交易强度和市场趋势变化方面起着核心作用。实证结果表明,悲观情绪对法国金融市场走势的影响尤为显著。此外,研究结果表明,作为投资者信念的直接指标,悲观情绪对资产回报的影响超过乐观情绪。代理人情绪的间接指标对这两个市场组成部分的影响更为平滑。研究结果表明,将心理因素纳入宏观金融模型可以更好地监督和控制市场的主要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 8
A New Trilogy to Understand the Relationship among Organizational Climate, Workplace Bullying and Employee Health 理解组织氛围、工作场所欺凌和员工健康之间关系的新三部曲
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.009
Muhammad Imran Qureshi , Amran Md. Rasli , Khalid Zaman

Organizational Climate is a driving force in the organization behavior which provides foundations to many physical and psychological phenomena to the employees. Bullying is one of the major under considered phenomenon, usually caused by the organizational climate. The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between organizational climates, workplace bullying and workers’ health in selected higher education institutes of Pakistan. A proportionate random sample of 20 Universities comprising of 10 from public sector and 10 from private sector was selected for the study. The model of workplace bullying, organizational climate and worker's health was estimated by Structural Equation Modeling using AMOS software. The study found a negative relationship between organizational climate and bullying on one hand, while on the other hand, an increased workplace bullying effects employees’ health negatively due to affected sleeping hours. Drug abuse was treated as a moderator between health and affected sleeping hours. The study suggested that organizations should control workplace bullying which may cause physical and psychological effects on employee's health.

组织氛围是组织行为的驱动力,它为员工的许多生理和心理现象提供了基础。欺凌是一种被忽视的主要现象,通常是由组织氛围引起的。本研究的目的是在巴基斯坦选定的高等教育机构中研究组织氛围、工作场所欺凌和工人健康之间的关系。按比例随机抽取20所大学进行研究,其中10所来自公共部门,10所来自私营部门。运用结构方程模型对工作场所欺凌、组织氛围与员工健康的关系模型进行了估算。研究发现,一方面,组织氛围和欺凌之间存在负相关关系,另一方面,由于睡眠时间受到影响,工作场所欺凌的增加对员工的健康产生了负面影响。药物滥用被认为是健康和受影响睡眠时间之间的调节因素。该研究建议,组织应该控制职场欺凌,因为它可能会对员工的身体和心理健康造成影响。
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引用次数: 79
Factors critical to the success of Six-Sigma quality program and their influence on performance indicators in some of Lebanese hospitals 六西格玛质量计划成功的关键因素及其对黎巴嫩一些医院绩效指标的影响
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.07.001
Assrar Sabry

Medical literature reports that Six-Sigma was applied at specific healthcare organizations. However, there is a lack of studies that investigate the broader status of Six-Sigma in Lebanese healthcare systems. The purpose of this paper is to explore the realities of factors critical (CSFs) to the success of a Six-Sigma quality program to identify the nature of the quality program implemented in some of Lebanese hospitals in Beirut. It also examines the impact of (CSFs) of a Six-Sigma quality program and its influence on performance indicators.

In order to achieve the objectives of the study, two questionnaires were used; ANOVA, Eta Squared, Pearson Correlations were used to analyse the data collected from a sample of 101 respondents. Three hypotheses, (H1), (H2) and (H3), were tested and partially accepted based on the results found.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: First, an overview on the relevant literature reviews with respect to the identified Six-Sigma factors. After that, the methodology and the data analysis of the results are presented. The end of this paper is concluded with the discussion and suggestions for further research.

医学文献报道,六西格玛被应用于特定的医疗保健组织。然而,缺乏研究调查六西格玛在黎巴嫩医疗保健系统的更广泛的地位。本文的目的是探讨六西格玛质量计划成功的关键因素(CSFs)的现实,以确定在贝鲁特的一些黎巴嫩医院实施的质量计划的性质。本文还考察了六西格玛质量项目(CSFs)的影响及其对绩效指标的影响。为了达到研究的目的,使用了两份问卷;方差分析,埃塔平方,Pearson相关性被用来分析从101个受访者样本中收集的数据。对(H1)、(H2)和(H3)三个假设进行了检验,并根据发现的结果部分接受。本文的其余部分组织如下:首先,概述了有关六西格玛因素的相关文献综述。然后,介绍了研究方法和结果的数据分析。最后对全文进行了总结,并提出了进一步研究的建议。
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引用次数: 53
Personality Traits as Predictors of Shopping Motivations and Behaviors: A Canonical Correlation Analysis 人格特质作为购物动机和行为的预测因子:典型相关分析
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.10.001
Ali Gohary , Kambiz Heidarzadeh Hanzaee

This study examines the relationship between Big Five personality traits with shopping motivation variables consisting of compulsive and impulsive buying, hedonic and utilitarian shopping values. Two hundred forty seven college students were recruited to participate in this research. Bivariate correlation demonstrates an overlap between personality traits; consequently, canonical correlation was performed to prevent this phenomenon. The results of multiple regression analysis suggested conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness as predictors of compulsive buying, impulsive buying and utilitarian shopping values. In addition, the results showed significant differences between males and females on conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness, compulsive buying and hedonic shopping value. Besides, using hierarchical regression analysis, we examined sex as moderator between Big Five personality traits and shopping variables, but we didn’t find sufficient evidence to prove it.

本研究考察了五大人格特征与购物动机变量(强迫性和冲动性购物、享乐主义和功利主义购物价值观)之间的关系。二百四十七名大学生被招募参与这项研究。双变量相关表明人格特征之间存在重叠;因此,典型相关被执行,以防止这种现象。多元回归分析结果显示,尽责性、神经质和开放性是强迫性购买、冲动购买和功利主义购物价值观的预测因子。另外,在责任心、神经质、开放性、强迫性购买和享乐性购物价值方面,男性和女性存在显著差异。此外,我们使用层次回归分析,考察了性别在五大人格特征和购物变量之间的调节作用,但我们没有找到足够的证据来证明这一点。
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引用次数: 52
Financial performance evaluation and bankruptcy prediction (failure)1 财务绩效评价与破产预测(失败
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.010
Talal A. Al-Kassar Dr. , Jared S. Soileau Dr.

Despite the copious number of statistical failure prediction models described in the literature, testing of whether such methodologies work in practice is lacking. This paper examines the performance of the same companies with solvency for predicting bankruptcy and comparison in both models. This model is suggested for measuring the values of financial performance (Al-Kassar and Soileau; 2012), and applying the financial failure model (Z-score) used by Taffler (1983). The data of six companies were examined for the period 1998-2011.

The methodology which used at empirical study includes measuring financial performance according to both models. Then both results have been shown in table (8). The correlations between their results for both models are shown highly relationship. They were tested by T-test. Therefore, they were classified and ranked the companies according to these values.

The research also demonstrates the need to include measures of both financial and non-financial performance in the evaluation as they complement each other. Without both financial and non-financial, the evaluation process is incomplete and does not provide desired results or the correct image of the process. The research suggests including comprehensive measures of performance evaluation of projects by using indicators of adopted criteria. Thus, the application of both models leads to better results and assists users in maintaining greater objectivity while obtaining more accurate results than from analysis based on personal evaluation alone.

尽管文献中描述了大量的统计故障预测模型,但缺乏对这些方法在实践中是否有效的测试。本文考察了同一家具有偿付能力的公司在破产预测方面的表现,并对两种模型进行了比较。该模型被建议用于衡量财务绩效的价值(Al-Kassar和Soileau;2012),并应用了Taffler(1983)使用的财务失败模型(Z-score)。对六家公司1998-2011年的数据进行了研究。在实证研究中使用的方法包括根据两种模型测量财务绩效。然后,这两个结果已显示在表(8)中。两种模型的结果之间的相关性显示为高度相关。采用t检验。因此,他们根据这些价值对公司进行分类和排名。研究还表明,有必要在评价中包括财务和非财务绩效的措施,因为它们是相辅相成的。没有财务和非财务的评价过程是不完整的,不能提供期望的结果或过程的正确形象。研究建议采用所采用标准的指标,纳入项目绩效评价的综合措施。因此,两种模型的应用导致更好的结果,并帮助用户保持更大的客观性,同时获得更准确的结果,而不是仅仅基于个人评价的分析。
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引用次数: 23
Measurement of the influence of banking automation on unemployment- Analytical study on Syrian banks 银行自动化对失业影响的测量——对叙利亚银行的分析研究
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aebj.2014.10.002
Mohammad Alsattouf, Mohammad Sobeih, Rula Ghossen

This study aims to find out if there is an effect of banking automation on the size of disguised unemployment and structural disguised unemployment in Syrian banks.

The sample of study is stratified cluster and it consisted of (191) officials. The study concluded the following:

-There is an effect of banking automation in Syria on disguised unemployment appearing at the size increase of this unemployment as much as about 17% of full time clocks.

- There were significant differences in the size of disguised unemployment due to the sector's type that the bank belongs to, and this size was bigger in the governmental banks.

-There is an effect of banking automation in Syria as structural disguised unemployment appears at being 12% of Syrian Banks. Officials never had convenient qualification to deal with automating system and about 45% of them have rather convenient qualification to deal with this system. Therefore, we found that there is a part of technological disguised unemployment in Syrian banks due to those unqualification officials.

- There were significant differences in the size of worker's training due to the sector's type that the bank belongs to, and this size was bigger in the private banks.

本研究旨在找出银行自动化是否对叙利亚银行的变相失业和结构性变相失业的规模有影响。研究样本为分层聚类,共191名官员。该研究得出以下结论:-在叙利亚,银行自动化对隐性失业产生了影响,这种失业的规模增加了大约17%的全职时钟。-由于银行所属行业的不同,变相失业的规模存在显著差异,在政府银行中变相失业的规模更大。-叙利亚银行业自动化的影响是,结构性变相失业似乎占叙利亚银行的12%。官员从来没有方便的资格来处理自动化系统,大约45%的官员有相当方便的资格来处理这个系统。因此,我们发现叙利亚银行存在部分技术性变相失业,原因是这些不合格的官员。-由于银行所属行业的不同,员工培训规模存在显著差异,民营银行的员工培训规模更大。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Arab Economic and Business Journal
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