Pub Date : 2021-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ceqi.2021.01.001
Ming Lu , Ziyang Yu , Qingyi Ji
Previous studies have examined how information intervention affects intergroup prejudice and conflict. On that basis, this study introduced psychological adjustment cost into a behavioral model for identity and individual attitude change. The model predicts that changes in attitude are related to an individual’s initial identity, and the same information can either change or reinforce initial attitudes. Then, we used a survey to explore whether information about migration could change the attitudes of Shanghai residents toward interregional migrants to their city. We found that after reading neutrally described information about the benefits of internal migration, the attitudes of non-native interviewees toward immigrants became more positive while those of native Shanghai residents became more negative. We also found that young, well-educated people developed more positive attitudes about immigrants after reading the information.
{"title":"Pride and prejudice: Different responses to migrant information among different identity groups","authors":"Ming Lu , Ziyang Yu , Qingyi Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2021.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2021.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Previous studies have examined how information intervention affects intergroup prejudice and conflict. On that basis, this study introduced psychological adjustment cost into a behavioral model for identity and individual attitude change. The model predicts that changes in attitude are related to an individual’s initial identity, and the same information can either change or reinforce initial attitudes. Then, we used a survey to explore whether information about migration could change the attitudes of Shanghai residents toward interregional migrants to their city. We found that after reading neutrally described information about the benefits of internal migration, the attitudes of non-native interviewees toward immigrants became more positive while those of native Shanghai residents became more negative. We also found that young, well-educated people developed more positive attitudes about immigrants after reading the information.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"1 1","pages":"Pages 84-96"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ceqi.2021.01.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"98953876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A large literature has studied how the presence of uninsurable labor-income risk affects the patterns of savings and portfolio allocation over the life cycle. For example, workers in risky companies, occupations, or industries may have a larger incentive to accumulate wealth to insure against adverse events, such as unemployment, and to prepare for retirement. Moreover, they are likely to hold different investment portfolios, e.g., how much they invest in risky assets and how much of their investment is directed toward liquid versus illiquid accounts. In models with heterogeneous agents, income risk is usually represented by a probability distribution over income draws with a constant variance. Nonetheless, there is increasing evidence that labor-income risk is itself idiosyncratic. For example, Meghir and Pistaferri (2004) use income data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to show that there is strong support in favor of income dynamics with a time-varying volatility. Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song (2015) show that an income process where variance switches stochastically between low and high regimes can match several higher-order of income moments including the high kurtosis of earnings in the U.S. data. Chang, Hong, Karabarbounis, Wang, and Zhang (2020) use administrative data from Statistics Norway to calibrate a life-cycle model with stochastic volatility in earnings and explore its implications for portfolio choice.
{"title":"A Life-Cycle Model with Individual Volatility Dynamics","authors":"Marios Karabarbounis","doi":"10.21144/eq1060402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1060402","url":null,"abstract":"A large literature has studied how the presence of uninsurable labor-income risk affects the patterns of savings and portfolio allocation over the life cycle. For example, workers in risky companies, occupations, or industries may have a larger incentive to accumulate wealth to insure against adverse events, such as unemployment, and to prepare for retirement. Moreover, they are likely to hold different investment portfolios, e.g., how much they invest in risky assets and how much of their investment is directed toward liquid versus illiquid accounts. In models with heterogeneous agents, income risk is usually represented by a probability distribution over income draws with a constant variance. Nonetheless, there is increasing evidence that labor-income risk is itself idiosyncratic. For example, Meghir and Pistaferri (2004) use income data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to show that there is strong support in favor of income dynamics with a time-varying volatility. Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song (2015) show that an income process where variance switches stochastically between low and high regimes can match several higher-order of income moments including the high kurtosis of earnings in the U.S. data. Chang, Hong, Karabarbounis, Wang, and Zhang (2020) use administrative data from Statistics Norway to calibrate a life-cycle model with stochastic volatility in earnings and explore its implications for portfolio choice.","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76445157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative that can be used as insurance against a reference entity’s credit risk, where a reference entity is either a government or corporation that has issued debt. It is formally a bilateral contract between a protection seller and protection buyer. The former is taking a short position in the CDS, while the latter is taking a long position. The protection seller compensates the protection buyer if there is a credit event with respect to any of the bonds issued by the contract’s reference entity. Credit events include bankruptcy, failure to pay, and restructuring, among other items. In exchange, the protection buyer makes periodic interest payments to the protection seller until the contract expires. As a result of their role in the 2008 financial crisis and in the sovereign debt crises in Europe, credit default swaps are among the most controversial derivative instruments. In both corporate and sovereign contexts, proponents of CDS attest to their beneficial effects in providing and transferring liquidity risk during times of distress. Critics view CDS as speculative bets, especially since CDS holders may hold more CDS than bonds with respect to the reference entity. That is, if a party owns equal amounts of bonds and CDS for a particular reference entity, then the party is completely insured against a negative credit event. In this way, a CDS works pretty much like an insurance policy on a car, house, or any other asset. However, unlike insurance, it is possible to own more CDS protection than the underlying bonds. As a result, CDS contracts make it possible to trade on
{"title":"Sovereign CDS Market: The Role of Dealers in Credit Events","authors":"Lawrence Jia, Bruno Sultanum, Elliot Tobin","doi":"10.21144/eq1060301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1060301","url":null,"abstract":"A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative that can be used as insurance against a reference entity’s credit risk, where a reference entity is either a government or corporation that has issued debt. It is formally a bilateral contract between a protection seller and protection buyer. The former is taking a short position in the CDS, while the latter is taking a long position. The protection seller compensates the protection buyer if there is a credit event with respect to any of the bonds issued by the contract’s reference entity. Credit events include bankruptcy, failure to pay, and restructuring, among other items. In exchange, the protection buyer makes periodic interest payments to the protection seller until the contract expires. As a result of their role in the 2008 financial crisis and in the sovereign debt crises in Europe, credit default swaps are among the most controversial derivative instruments. In both corporate and sovereign contexts, proponents of CDS attest to their beneficial effects in providing and transferring liquidity risk during times of distress. Critics view CDS as speculative bets, especially since CDS holders may hold more CDS than bonds with respect to the reference entity. That is, if a party owns equal amounts of bonds and CDS for a particular reference entity, then the party is completely insured against a negative credit event. In this way, a CDS works pretty much like an insurance policy on a car, house, or any other asset. However, unlike insurance, it is possible to own more CDS protection than the underlying bonds. As a result, CDS contracts make it possible to trade on","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"16 1","pages":"97-113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86139527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-22DOI: 10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2020.01.13
Boqiang Lin, Wei Wu
{"title":"The Implication of Global Energy Efficiency Evolution—SDA and Empirical Study Based on Global Input-Output Data","authors":"Boqiang Lin, Wei Wu","doi":"10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2020.01.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2020.01.13","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"48 1","pages":"663-684"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86131744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-22DOI: 10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2019.04.14
Yuchao Peng, Lili Yan, Yi Fang
{"title":"Economic Growth Lower Bound and Non-Linear Fiscal Policy—Based on a DSGE Model with Occasional Binding Constraint","authors":"Yuchao Peng, Lili Yan, Yi Fang","doi":"10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2019.04.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13821/J.CNKI.CEQ.2019.04.14","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"42 1","pages":"309-328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78215461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study an economic environment affected by shocks that may be either permanent or transitory in nature. Contrary to the standard perfect information setup, we assume that households cannot distinguish between the two types of shocks. We describe how to solve the model under this imperfect information assumption in the context of the one-sector neoclassical model. We show that the solution involves a recasting of the driving process in terms of estimates of the exogenous states and forecast errors made by households rather than the states themselves. Given observations on the driving process, the signal extraction problem used to obtain these estimates and forecast errors may be solved independently of the calculation determining the stability of the model's dynamics. Moreover, standard linear rational expectations toolkits still apply. Given that information available to households is imperfect, the paper highlights the possibility of real economic responses to errors made in reading the economic environment rather than to actual changes in fundamentals.
{"title":"The Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks under Imperfect Information","authors":"Andrew T. Foerster, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte","doi":"10.21144/eq1060201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1060201","url":null,"abstract":"We study an economic environment affected by shocks that may be either permanent or transitory in nature. Contrary to the standard perfect information setup, we assume that households cannot distinguish between the two types of shocks. We describe how to solve the model under this imperfect information assumption in the context of the one-sector neoclassical model. We show that the solution involves a recasting of the driving process in terms of estimates of the exogenous states and forecast errors made by households rather than the states themselves. Given observations on the driving process, the signal extraction problem used to obtain these estimates and forecast errors may be solved independently of the calculation determining the stability of the model's dynamics. Moreover, standard linear rational expectations toolkits still apply. Given that information available to households is imperfect, the paper highlights the possibility of real economic responses to errors made in reading the economic environment rather than to actual changes in fundamentals.","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"17 1","pages":"41-59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78164561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Taking internet banking as an example, we study diffusion of cost-saving technological innovations. We show that the diffusion of internet banking follows an S-shaped logistic curve as it penetrates a log-logistic bank-size distribution. We test the theoretical hypothesis with an empirical study of internet banking diffusion among banks across fifty U.S. states. Using an instrument-variable approach, we estimate the positive effect of average bank size on internet banking diffusion. The empirical findings allow us to examine the technological, economic, and institutional factors governing the diffusion process and explain the variation in diffusion rates across geographic regions.
{"title":"Technology Diffusion: The Case of Internet Banking","authors":"Richard Sullivan, Zhu Wang","doi":"10.21144/eq1060102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1060102","url":null,"abstract":"Taking internet banking as an example, we study diffusion of cost-saving technological innovations. We show that the diffusion of internet banking follows an S-shaped logistic curve as it penetrates a log-logistic bank-size distribution. We test the theoretical hypothesis with an empirical study of internet banking diffusion among banks across fifty U.S. states. Using an instrument-variable approach, we estimate the positive effect of average bank size on internet banking diffusion. The empirical findings allow us to examine the technological, economic, and institutional factors governing the diffusion process and explain the variation in diffusion rates across geographic regions.","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"647 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76272946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Women have traditionally been underrepresented among governors of the Federal Reserve Board and among presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. This lack of diversity may limit the representation of the interests of women, leave out valuable talent, and affect group dynamics and decision-making. These concerns are also relevant for the members of the Boards of Directors of the twelve regional banks of the Federal Reserve System. This article presents and analyzes hand-collected data on female representation on these twelve boards. Since 1977, when the first five women began serving as directors, the proportion of females has increased significantly, reaching its peak of 31.5 percent (thirty-three women out of the total 108 directors) in the last year of our sample, 2017. In our analysis, we find that the limited proportion of new directors who are female, not a differential quitting rate by gender, is the main driver of their limited representation. Using our statistical model, we extrapolate trends in hiring and quitting to predict the time it could take to achieve equal representation. We find it could take between thirteen years (if the trends of the last ten years are maintained) and thirty-one years (if trends are instead those observed since 1977). We find evidence suggestive of using targeted appointments of women to replace departing female directors or maintaining some implicit minimum female representation.
{"title":"Gender Composition of the Boards of Directors of the Regional Federal Reserve Banks","authors":"C. Davis, Arantxa Jarque","doi":"10.21144/eq1050401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1050401","url":null,"abstract":"Women have traditionally been underrepresented among governors of the Federal Reserve Board and among presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. This lack of diversity may limit the representation of the interests of women, leave out valuable talent, and affect group dynamics and decision-making. These concerns are also relevant for the members of the Boards of Directors of the twelve regional banks of the Federal Reserve System. This article presents and analyzes hand-collected data on female representation on these twelve boards. Since 1977, when the first five women began serving as directors, the proportion of females has increased significantly, reaching its peak of 31.5 percent (thirty-three women out of the total 108 directors) in the last year of our sample, 2017. In our analysis, we find that the limited proportion of new directors who are female, not a differential quitting rate by gender, is the main driver of their limited representation. Using our statistical model, we extrapolate trends in hiring and quitting to predict the time it could take to achieve equal representation. We find it could take between thirteen years (if the trends of the last ten years are maintained) and thirty-one years (if trends are instead those observed since 1977). We find evidence suggestive of using targeted appointments of women to replace departing female directors or maintaining some implicit minimum female representation.","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78427833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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