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Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis 重新审视印度储蓄与经济增长之间的因果关系:一个实证分析
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001
Suresh Kumar Patra , Dogga Satyanarayana Murthy , Mahendra Babu Kuruva , Avipsa Mohanty

This paper attempts to analyze the long run association between savings and growth; and investigates the causality issue in Indian context for the period 1950–51 to 2011–12. Firstly, the study identifies the structural break in the year 1980 by employing Bi-Perron test with unknown time. Further, it examines the association and the direction of causality between savings and real economic activity. The empirical evidence of the study suggests that savings boost the real activity both in the pre and post break period in the long run, while economic growth causes saving in the short run in the pre break period. Thus, the present study brings evidence in favour of the neoclassical exogenous and the post-neoclassical endogenous growth models and suggest that both the incentive-based measures and the productivity-based measures would be useful to generate higher savings and reinforce the acceleration of income and growth.

本文试图分析储蓄与经济增长之间的长期关系;并调查了1950-51年至2011-12年期间印度背景下的因果关系问题。首先,采用未知时间的Bi-Perron检验对1980年的结构断裂进行了识别。此外,它还检验了储蓄与实际经济活动之间的关联和因果关系。本研究的实证证据表明,储蓄在长期内促进了休假前和休假后的实际活动,而经济增长在短期内促进了休假前的储蓄。因此,本研究提供了支持新古典外生和后新古典内生增长模型的证据,并表明基于激励的措施和基于生产率的措施都有助于产生更高的储蓄,并加强收入和增长的加速。
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引用次数: 26
Revisiting the evolutionism of Edith Penrose’s The theory of the growth of the firm: Penrose’s entrepreneur meets Veblenian institutions 重新审视伊迪丝·彭罗斯《企业成长理论》的进化论:彭罗斯的企业家遇到了韦勃勒制度
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.03.002
Felipe Almeida, Huáscar Pessali

Edith Penrose’s The theory of the growth of the firm has offered key ingredients to an evolutionary approach to the growth of the firm. The entrepreneur enlivened by Edith Penrose in that book is revisited here, considering the role played by institutions in his decision-making. It is argued that her view of the entrepreneur rests greatly in the task of successfully linking two intertwined institutional sets, one internal and the other external to the firm. As a result, the entrepreneur must deal with instrumental and ceremonial elements of both institutional sets in order to re-channel pecuniary gains. The evolutionary approach of Veblenian institutionalism offers an apt definition of institutions to the case in point and is thus used here to expand Penrose’s case account of Hercules Powder Company.

伊迪丝·彭罗斯的企业成长理论为企业成长的进化方法提供了关键要素。在这本书中,伊迪丝·彭罗斯(Edith Penrose)激发了这位企业家的活力,在这里,我们重新审视了制度在他的决策中所扮演的角色。有人认为,她对企业家的看法在很大程度上取决于成功地将两个相互交织的制度集(一个是企业内部的,另一个是企业外部的)联系起来的任务。因此,企业家必须处理两种制度设置的工具和仪式因素,以便重新引导金钱收益。Veblenian制度主义的进化方法为本案提供了一个恰当的制度定义,因此在这里被用来扩展彭罗斯对赫拉克勒斯粉末公司的案例描述。
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引用次数: 4
Portfolio management using realized covariances: Evidence from Brazil 使用已实现协方差的投资组合管理:来自巴西的证据
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.04.002
João F. Caldeira , Guilherme V. Moura , Marcelo S. Perlin , André A.P. Santos

It is often argued that intraday returns can be used to construct covariance estimates that are more accurate than those based on daily returns. However, it is still unclear whether high frequency data provide more precise covariance estimates in markets more contaminated from microstructure noise such as higher bid-ask spreads and lower liquidity. We address this question by investigating the benefits of using high frequency data in the Brazilian equities market to construct optimal minimum variance portfolios. We implement alternative realized covariance estimators based on intraday returns sampled at alternative frequencies and obtain their dynamic versions using a multivariate GARCH framework. Our evidence based on a high-dimensional data set suggests that realized covariance estimators performed significantly better from an economic point of view in comparison to standard estimators based on low-frequency (close-to-close) data as they delivered less risky portfolios.

人们经常认为,日内收益可以用来构建协方差估计,这比基于日收益的协方差估计更准确。然而,高频数据是否在受微观结构噪音(如更高的买卖价差和更低的流动性)影响更大的市场中提供更精确的协方差估计仍不清楚。我们通过研究在巴西股票市场中使用高频数据构建最优最小方差投资组合的好处来解决这个问题。我们基于在不同频率采样的日内回报实现了不同的协方差估计,并使用多元GARCH框架获得了它们的动态版本。我们基于高维数据集的证据表明,从经济角度来看,与基于低频(近距离)数据的标准估计器相比,实现的协方差估计器表现得更好,因为它们提供的投资组合风险更低。
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引用次数: 10
The incorporation of structural change into growth theory: A historical appraisal 结构变化与增长理论的结合:一个历史的评价
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.003
Francisco Adilson Gabardo , João Basilio Pereima , Pedro Einloft

Despite being an empirical fact that structural change is an inseparable companion of the growth process, it appears as if growth theorists have relegated it to a secondary role. One of the reasons for this apparent neglect is undoubtedly the difficulty of dealing with the issues of sectoral dynamics and structural change within the framework of analytical models. A second reason derives from the fact that for a long time the analysis of growth, from a theoretical perspective, has focused predominantly on aspects of supply and technical progress, leaving the analysis of demand and consumption evolution, crucial for the understanding of structural change, aside. The present paper provides an overview of some of the main works in modern growth theory and appraises the introduction of the subject of structural change into the analysis of economic growth. The exposition elucidates the sources and effects of the process of structural change and surveys some of the recent literature from different schools of thought that integrates structural change into their analysis, commenting on their main features and contributions.

尽管结构性变化是增长过程不可分割的伙伴这一经验事实,但似乎增长理论家已将其降级为次要角色。造成这种明显忽视的原因之一无疑是难以在分析模型的框架内处理部门动态和结构变化问题。第二个原因源于这样一个事实,即长期以来,从理论角度对增长的分析主要集中在供给和技术进步方面,而把对理解结构变化至关重要的需求和消费演变的分析放在一边。本文概述了现代增长理论的一些主要著作,并对将结构变化这一主题引入经济增长分析进行了评价。本文阐述了结构变化过程的来源和影响,并调查了一些来自不同思想流派的近期文献,这些文献将结构变化整合到他们的分析中,评论了他们的主要特征和贡献。
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引用次数: 38
The effect of technological intensity of exports on the economic growth of Brazilian microregions: A spatial analysis with panel data 出口技术强度对巴西微区经济增长的影响:基于面板数据的空间分析
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.03.001
Augusta Pelinski Raiher , Alex Sander Souza do Carmo, Alysson Luiz Stege

The objective of this study was to analyze empirically the effects of exports segmented into technological levels on the economic growth of Brazilian microregions during the period 2000–2010 in light of the Crespo-Cuaresma and Wörz’s (2005) model. The hypothesis is that exports increase economic growth due to the productivity differential existing between the exporting and non exporting sectors and the positive externality generated by the exporting in the non exporting sector. Theoretically, the higher technology the exported goods have, the stronger these effects are. By classifying the exports into technological levels and estimating the empirical model using the spatial data panel technique, with fixed effect, the two central hypotheses in the Crespo-Cuaresma and Wörz’s (2005) model were validated, with a productivity differential in all exporting segments, and also with a subsequent effect of externalities on the economic dynamism. This effect might go beyond territorial limits mainly when the goods exported belong to the low and mid-low technology industry. Also, a differentiated effect was observed regarding the external insertion in the economic growth of the regions with high exports vs. those with low participation in the international trade. In the former, the most intense indirect effect is mainly related to products with higher aggregated value, while in the latter more effects are seen mainly linked to the exportation of non-industrial products.

本研究的目的是根据Crespo-Cuaresma和Wörz(2005)的模型,实证分析2000-2010年期间出口对巴西微区域经济增长的影响。假设是,由于出口和非出口部门之间存在的生产率差异以及出口在非出口部门产生的正外部性,出口增加了经济增长。从理论上讲,出口产品的技术含量越高,这种效应就越强。通过对出口的技术水平进行分类,并使用空间数据面板技术对实证模型进行估计,在固定效应下,验证了Crespo-Cuaresma和Wörz(2005)模型中的两个中心假设,包括所有出口部门的生产率差异,以及外部性对经济动态的后续影响。当出口的产品属于中低技术产业时,这种影响可能会超越地域限制。此外,在出口高的地区与参与国际贸易较少的地区的经济增长中,外部介入的影响也有所不同。在前者中,间接影响最强烈的主要是与总价值较高的产品有关,而在后者中,更多的影响主要与非工业产品的出口有关。
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引用次数: 9
ASEAN economic growth, trade openness and banking-sector depth: The nexus 东盟经济增长、贸易开放和银行业深度:关系
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.002
Rudra P. Pradhan , Mak B. Arvin , John H. Hall , Neville R. Norman

This paper investigated the linkages between banking sector depth, trade openness, and economic growth using a panel data set covering the ASEAN regional forum countries for the period 1961–2012. Using our multivariate framework, we first found that all the variables were integrated of order one and were cointegrated. Our panel-data estimation procedures offered more robust estimates than previous studies by utilizing variations between countries as well as variations over time. The results of this study indicated a general long-run equilibrium relationship among trade openness, banking sector depth and economic growth as well as a short-run relationship between these variables. Policy recommendations include those that will promote greater banking sector development as well as increased trade openness.

本文利用涵盖东盟地区论坛国家1961-2012年的面板数据集,研究了银行业深度、贸易开放程度和经济增长之间的联系。使用我们的多变量框架,我们首先发现所有的变量都是1阶的积分,并且是协整的。我们的面板数据估计程序通过利用国家之间和时间之间的差异,提供了比以前的研究更可靠的估计。研究结果表明,贸易开放程度、银行业深度与经济增长之间存在一般的长期均衡关系,这些变量之间也存在短期均衡关系。政策建议包括促进银行业发展和提高贸易开放程度的政策建议。
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引用次数: 39
Impact of infrastructure expenses in strategic sectors for Brazilian poverty 战略部门基础设施支出对巴西贫困的影响
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.01.002
Emerson Marinho , Guaracyane Campelo , João França , Jair Araujo

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investments in the reduction of poverty in Brazil, controlled through other determinants such as economic growth, income inequality, average schooling years, unemployment rate and state budgets from 1995 to 2011. A model for a dynamic panel data, estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) in two steps as developed by Arellano-Bond (1991) and Blundell-Bond (1998) found among other conclusions, a significant inverse relation between public investment in infrastructure and poverty. The Granger causality test for panel data proposed by Hurlin and Venet (2001, 2004) and Hurlin (2004, 2005) reinforced results validation.

本文分析了基础设施投资对巴西减少贫困的影响,通过其他决定因素如经济增长、收入不平等、平均受教育年限、失业率和1995年至2011年的国家预算来控制。由Arellano-Bond(1991)和Blundell-Bond(1998)开发的两步广义矩量法(GMM)估计的动态面板数据模型发现,基础设施公共投资与贫困之间存在显著的反比关系。Hurlin和Venet(2001,2004)和Hurlin(2004,2005)提出的面板数据格兰杰因果检验加强了结果的验证性。
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引用次数: 35
The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model 汇款对经济增长的影响:一个计量经济学模型
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2016.06.001
Dietmar Meyer , Adela Shera

Remittances in the world represent one of major international financial resources, which sometimes they exceed the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI). For centuries, there have been heated debates on the sources of economic growth in developing economies and also why some countries reflect strong economic growth comparing to others.

This study aims to observe the impacts of remittances on economic growth, using panel data set of six high remittances receiving countries, Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Moldova, Romania and Bosnia Herzegovina during the period 1999–2013. These countries have experienced a major increase in remittance inflows, and at this time accounts for the bulk of total remittance receipts, compared with other regions. Most countries, remittances represent the largest source of foreign exchange earnings and represent more than 10 percent of GDP.

In other words, the econometric analysis will be based on those six remittance receiving countries. The paper is then to review the empirical literature devoted to the impact of remittances on economic growth, in order, to identify empirically if there are significant relationships between remittances and growth in these countries. The results suggest that remittances have a positive impact on growth and that this impact increases at higher levels of remittances relative to GDP.

在世界范围内,汇款是主要的国际金融资源之一,有时超过了外国直接投资的流量。几个世纪以来,关于发展中经济体经济增长的来源以及为什么一些国家的经济增长比其他国家强劲的争论一直很激烈。本研究旨在观察汇款对经济增长的影响,使用1999-2013年期间六个高汇款接收国(阿尔巴尼亚、保加利亚、马其顿、摩尔多瓦、罗马尼亚和波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那)的面板数据集。与其他区域相比,这些国家的汇款流入大幅增加,目前占汇款总收入的大部分。在大多数国家,汇款是外汇收入的最大来源,占国内生产总值的10%以上。换句话说,计量经济学分析将以这六个汇款接收国为基础。然后,本文将回顾专门研究汇款对经济增长影响的实证文献,以便从经验上确定汇款与这些国家的增长之间是否存在显著关系。研究结果表明,汇款对经济增长具有积极影响,且汇款相对于GDP的比例越高,这种影响越明显。
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引用次数: 264
Effects of physical activity on earnings in the Brazilian labor market 体育锻炼对巴西劳动力市场收入的影响
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2016.07.001
Marcia Regina Godoy, Divanildo Triches

This article investigates the effects of physical activity on earnings in the Brazilian labor market, analyzing workers aged between 30 and 50 years. To that end, quantile regression was applied to analyze microdata from the 2008 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD). The results showed that workers who engage in regular physical exercise exhibit better social and economic conditions compared to sedentary individuals. Sedentary lifestyles are typically more common among female employees than their male counterparts and this is reflected in earnings in the labor market. The impact of physical activity on wages varied from 15.0 to 31.0% and was greater among the highest quantiles. The lowest salaries were recorded among non-white sedentary women.

本文调查了巴西劳动力市场中体力活动对收入的影响,分析了年龄在30至50岁之间的工人。为此,分位数回归应用于分析2008年全国家庭抽样调查(PNAD)的微观数据。研究结果显示,与久坐不动的人相比,经常进行体育锻炼的员工表现出更好的社会和经济状况。久坐不动的生活方式在女性员工中比男性员工更常见,这也反映在劳动力市场的收入上。体力活动对工资的影响从15.0%到31.0%不等,在最高的分位数中影响更大。非白人久坐女性的工资最低。
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引用次数: 2
Public versus private sector: Do workers’ behave differently? 公共部门与私营部门:员工的行为不同吗?
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.01.001
Paulo Aguiar do Monte

It has been widely assumed in the literature that public sector organization operates in a different way compared to private sector organization. This paper intends to contribute to develop further this issue by investigating whether the relationship between worker efforts differs significantly both in the public and in the private sector. By drawing on data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), Brazil 2003–2012, and proxies for worker effort (unpaid overtime work and absences), it was observed, initially, significant differences between worker’s profiles depending on the sector they are employed. In turn, the estimation results of the dynamic panel models confirm that the level of worker effort alters according to their switches from one sector to another in the labor market. Briefly, public sector workers do not tend to do unpaid overtime work comparable to those in private sector, and they are more likely to be absent at work.

在文献中,人们普遍认为公共部门组织的运作方式与私营部门组织不同。本文打算通过调查工人努力之间的关系在公共部门和私营部门是否有显着差异来进一步发展这一问题。通过利用巴西2003-2012年月度就业调查(PME)的数据,以及工人努力(无薪加班和缺勤)的代理数据,最初观察到,不同行业的工人的概况存在显著差异。反过来,动态面板模型的估计结果证实,工人的努力水平根据他们在劳动力市场从一个部门到另一个部门的转换而改变。简而言之,与私营部门的工人相比,公共部门的工人往往不愿意无偿加班,而且他们更有可能缺勤。
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引用次数: 22
期刊
EconomiA
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