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Modified least squares ratio estimator for autocorrelated data: Estimation and prediction 自相关数据的修正最小二乘比值估计:估计与预测
Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmds.2025.100109
Satyanarayana Poojari, Sachin Acharya, Varun Kumar S.G., Vinitha Serrao
Autocorrelated errors in regression models make ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators inefficient, potentially leading to the misinterpretation of test procedures. Generalized least squares (GLS) estimation is a more efficient approach than OLS in the presence of autocorrelated errors. The GLS estimators based on Cochrane–Orcutt (COR) and Hildreth–Lu (HU) methods are the most commonly used to estimate unknown model parameters. This study investigates the impact of autocorrelation on parameter estimation and prediction in regression models and introduces a novel approach to address the challenge possessed by autocorrelated errors. In this paper, two modified GLS estimators based on the least square ratio method are proposed namely the Least Square Ratio-Cochrane–Orcutt Estimator (LSRE-COR) estimator and the Least Square Ratio-Hildreth–Lu (LSRE-HU) estimator. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with OLS, COR, HU, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and least square ratio estimator (LSRE) based on total mean square error (TMSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that the proposed LSRE-HU and LSRE-COR consistently outperform all other estimators across various levels of autocorrelation and numbers of regressors for moderately large samples. The effectiveness of these methods is illustrated through real-life applications.
回归模型中的自相关误差使普通最小二乘(OLS)估计器效率低下,潜在地导致对测试过程的误解。在存在自相关误差的情况下,广义最小二乘(GLS)估计比OLS估计更有效。基于Cochrane-Orcutt (COR)和Hildreth-Lu (HU)方法的GLS估计器是最常用的未知模型参数估计方法。本文研究了自相关对回归模型参数估计和预测的影响,并引入了一种新的方法来解决自相关误差所带来的挑战。本文提出了基于最小二乘比值法的两个改进的GLS估计量,即最小二乘比值- cochrane - orcut估计量(LSRE-COR)和最小二乘比值- hildreth - lu估计量(LSRE-HU)。通过蒙特卡罗仿真研究,比较了基于总均方误差(TMSE)和均方根误差(RMSE)的估计器与OLS、COR、HU、最大似然估计器(MLE)和最小二乘比值估计器(LSRE)的性能。结果表明,对于中等规模的样本,所提出的LSRE-HU和LSRE-COR在各种自相关水平和回归量数量上始终优于所有其他估计器。通过实际应用说明了这些方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Computational Mathematics and Data Science
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