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Expectations, impacts, and contradictions of e-scooters from a social exclusion perspective: Reflections from London's rental trial 社会排斥视角下电动滑板车的期望、影响与矛盾:来自伦敦租赁试点的反思
Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100053
Daniel Oviedo, Carolina Moore, Anastasia Trofimova
There are few attempts at introducing new personal transport technologies have made as much noise as the relatively recent appearance of electric scooters (e-scooters) in cities as an on-demand shared mobility service supported by digital platforms. In London, United Kingdom, urban pilots for shared e-scooter services have been met with significant disruptions stemming from issues that range from the pandemic to regulatory uncertainty, recent political shifts, and slow legislative processes. This paper seeks to address gaps in reliable evidence about e-scooters’ positive and negative contributions to social and environmental development goals using a qualitative approach grounded in a framework of transport-related social exclusion. The framework comprises of eight dimensions linked with usage of new modes of personal transport technologies: 1) geographic, 2) spatial, 3) from facilities, 4) economics, 5) time-based, 6) physical, 7) fear-based, and 8) discrimination. The paper builds on semi-structured interviews with 27 stakeholders representing diverse organisations in the public, private, and third sectors, and an online survey with over 1000 respondents, including users and non-users of private and shared e-scooters. We interrogate the practices, experiences, and expectations of stakeholders within London’s, as well as the United Kingdom’s urban micro-mobility landscape. The paper expands on current research efforts that are concerned almost exclusively with the environmental, road traffic safety, and reductionist interpretations of ‘inclusion’ and ‘accessibility’, adding depth and nuance to discussions on intersectionality, deprivation, as well as social and cultural values in the planning of on-demand shared mobility services.
在引入新的个人交通技术方面,很少有尝试像最近在城市中出现的电动滑板车(e-scooters)那样引起如此大的轰动,因为电动滑板车是一种由数字平台支持的按需共享出行服务。在英国伦敦,共享电动滑板车服务的城市试点遇到了严重的中断,原因包括大流行、监管不确定性、最近的政治转变和立法进程缓慢等问题。本文试图利用基于交通相关社会排斥框架的定性方法,解决电动滑板车对社会和环境发展目标的积极和消极贡献的可靠证据的差距。该框架包括与个人交通技术新模式使用相关的八个维度:1)地理,2)空间,3)设施,4)经济,5)基于时间,6)物理,7)基于恐惧,8)歧视。该报告基于对27名代表公共、私营和第三部门不同组织的利益相关者的半结构化访谈,以及对1000多名受访者的在线调查,包括私人和共享电动滑板车的用户和非用户。我们调查了伦敦以及英国城市微交通景观中利益相关者的实践、经验和期望。本文扩展了目前几乎只关注环境、道路交通安全以及“包容性”和“可达性”的简化主义解释的研究成果,增加了对按需共享移动服务规划中的交叉性、剥夺以及社会和文化价值的讨论的深度和细微差别。
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引用次数: 0
Validation of the need satisfaction in cycling to and from school scale among students from Germany 德国学生骑车上下学需求满意度的验证
Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100052
Dorothea M.I. Schönbach , Adilson Marques , Miguel Peralta , Dorota Kleszczewska , Anna Dzielska , Rafael Burgueño , Francisco Javier Huertas-Delgado , Yolanda Demetriou
According to Germany’s 2022 Report Card, the prevalence of overall physical activity among children and adolescents is poor (D-). Cycling to/from school is one possibility among others to increase physical activity. We developed an intervention based on the self-determination theory in previous research to promote a more self-determined form of motivation among students. To establish a robust measurement instrument, this study aimed to validate the German need satisfaction in cycling to/from school scale in terms of construct and criterion validity and reliability, and examine gender differences regarding the mean satisfaction of needs. In 2021, 239 students (46.9 % girls, 51.9 % boys, 1.3 % diverse) aged between 10 and 17 attending an intermediate or high educational level in Southern Germany participated in this study. Global model fit, measurement model invariance tests across gender, and internal consistency were good. Convergent validity was established; however, discriminant validity was doubtful. Concurrent criterion validity was shown by the correlation between mean satisfaction of needs and mean intrinsic motivation and an increased likelihood of cycling to school through the mean satisfaction of needs. We concluded that our study provides a valid and reliable scale to measure the satisfaction of autonomy, competence, and relatedness in cycling to/from school, but only if item 10 within the autonomy subscale is removed.
根据德国2022年的报告卡,儿童和青少年的整体体育活动普及率很低(D-)。骑自行车上下学是增加身体活动的一种可能性。在之前的研究中,我们基于自我决定理论开发了一种干预措施,以促进学生更自主的动机形式。本研究旨在建立一个稳健的测量工具,验证德国人往返学校需求满意度量表的结构、效度和信度,并检验需求平均满意度的性别差异。2021年,在德国南部接受中等或高等教育的10至17岁的239名学生(46.9% %女生,51.9% %男生,1.3% %多元)参加了这项研究。整体模型拟合、测量模型跨性别不变性检验和内部一致性良好。建立了收敛效度;然而,判别效度值得怀疑。通过平均需求满意度与平均内在动机之间的相关性,以及通过平均需求满意度增加骑车上学的可能性,显示了并发效度。我们的结论是,我们的研究提供了一个有效和可靠的量表来衡量自主性,能力和相关性在骑车上学/放学的满意度,但只有在自主性子量表中的第10项被删除。
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引用次数: 0
How do cyclists experience a context-aware prototype warning system? Assessing perceived safety, perception and riding behaviour changes through a field study 骑自行车的人如何体验环境感知的原型警告系统?通过实地研究评估感知安全,感知和骑乘行为的变化
Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100051
Georgios Kapousizis , Annemarie Jutte , M. Baran Ulak , Karst Geurs
The number of bicycle crashes is increasing in many European countries. In the Netherlands, a country well-known for its high-quality cycling infrastructure and cycling culture, bicycle crashes are also increasing, especially for e-bike users. Smart bicycle technologies, such as safety warning support systems, could contribute to reducing crash risk for cyclists. However, perceived safety and trust in these technologies are determinant factors in accepting and using such technologies. This study investigated users’ perceived safety, perceived trust, and perceived performance with a context-aware prototype warning system to support cyclists in the real world. In addition, it investigated users’ riding behaviour changes when receiving warnings in high crash risk locations by collecting GPS data. The above were evaluated through a field trial experiment using three rides per participant, with the first one serving as a control ride and a follow-up questionnaire after each ride conducted in Enschede, the Netherlands, between April and May 2024, with a sample of 46 participants. Results show that participants’ perceived safety increased after they tried out the prototype warning system. In addition, it was found that warning systems positively influence participants’ riding behaviour, since they reduced their speed. This study proves the potential benefits of smart bicycle technologies in improving cyclists’ safety.
在许多欧洲国家,自行车事故的数量正在增加。在荷兰,一个以其高质量的自行车基础设施和自行车文化而闻名的国家,自行车事故也在增加,特别是对于电动自行车用户。智能自行车技术,如安全预警支持系统,可能有助于降低骑车者的撞车风险。然而,对这些技术的感知安全和信任是接受和使用这些技术的决定因素。本研究通过情境感知原型预警系统调查了现实世界中骑车者的感知安全、感知信任和感知表现。此外,它还通过收集GPS数据,调查用户在高碰撞风险位置收到警告时的骑行行为变化。以上是通过现场试验来评估的,每位参与者使用三次骑行,第一次作为对照骑行,每次骑行后进行后续问卷调查,于2024年4月至5月在荷兰恩斯赫德进行,样本为46名参与者。实验结果表明,实验对象在试用了原型预警系统后,安全感有所提高。此外,研究发现,警告系统对参与者的骑行行为有积极影响,因为它们降低了他们的速度。这项研究证明了智能自行车技术在提高骑自行车者安全方面的潜在效益。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling the impact of road infrastructure on cycling moving speed 模拟道路基础设施对自行车运动速度的影响
Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100049
Afshin Jafari , Dhirendra Singh , Lucy Gunn , Alan Both , Billie Giles-Corti
Cycling for transport is a sustainable alternative to using motorised vehicles for daily trips and is a key form of micromobility. Travel time is a critical factor influencing cycling route choice behaviour and uptake. Thus, it is important to understand the factors affecting cycling travel time and speed and their impact on cycling behaviour. In this study, an agent-based transport simulation model with heterogeneous cycling speeds was developed and used for Melbourne to study the impact of a hypothetical traffic signal optimisation intervention along six key cycling corridors. Linear regression and random forest models were used to identify factors affecting cycling speed, which informed the parameters of the agent-based model. Simulation outputs showed, on average, an increase of 4.1 % in the number of cyclists on the corridors, as existing cyclists chose to use these corridors, and an average reduction in cyclists’ moving travel time of 6.2 % for those using the intervention corridors (excluding time spent waiting at traffic signals). The findings provide insights into the effects of road attributes on cycling speed and behaviour, as well as the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing cycling delays. These insights are valuable for developing solutions to optimise urban infrastructure for micromobility, enhancing the efficiency and appeal of cycling as a viable transport option.
骑自行车作为交通工具是一种可持续的替代使用机动车辆进行日常旅行,是一种关键的微型交通形式。出行时间是影响骑行路线选择行为和吸收的关键因素。因此,了解影响骑行时间和速度的因素及其对骑行行为的影响是很重要的。在本研究中,我们开发了一个基于agent的、具有不同骑行速度的交通模拟模型,并以墨尔本为例,研究了假设的交通信号优化干预对六个关键骑行通道的影响。采用线性回归和随机森林模型识别影响循环速度的因素,从而为基于智能体的模型的参数提供信息。模拟结果显示,由于现有的骑自行车者选择使用这些走廊,骑自行车的人数平均增加了4.1 %,而使用干预走廊的骑自行车者的移动旅行时间平均减少了6.2 %(不包括等待交通信号的时间)。这些发现为了解道路属性对骑行速度和行为的影响,以及旨在减少骑行延误的干预措施的有效性提供了见解。这些见解对于开发优化城市微交通基础设施的解决方案,提高自行车作为一种可行的交通选择的效率和吸引力具有重要价值。
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引用次数: 0
Designing an E-Bike City: An automated process for network-wide multimodal road space reallocation 设计电动自行车城市:全网多式联运道路空间重新分配的自动化流程
Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100048
Lukas Ballo , Martin Raubal , Kay W. Axhausen
Effective and timely decarbonization of urban mobility requires systemic changes to transportation systems. High-quality cycling networks are seen as one of such measures and multiple scholars have developed automated approaches for a quick generation of such interventions. However, a common shortcoming is that they mostly ignore the tradeoffs and dependencies in allocating scarce road space to different modes. In this paper, we introduce an automated process for generating alternative multimodal transport networks within the boundaries of existing road space. Based on the user’s configuration, the resulting networks can prioritize separated cycling infrastructure, dedicated lanes for public transport, or a dense provision of on-street parking spaces. Also, the prioritization and the resulting designs can follow a variety of design principles, such as one-way streets, or impermeable superblocks. The outputs can be visualized on a map and used in common transport simulation toolkits. A case study in Zurich is used to demonstrate the process on a real-world network and discuss the results. The underlying software package SNMan (Street Network Manipulator) is available as open-source software and can be utilized by researchers and planners to envision alternative urban mobility futures in any place in the world.
要有效、及时地实现城市交通的去碳化,就必须对交通系统进行系统性改革。高质量的自行车网络被视为此类措施之一,多位学者已开发出可快速生成此类干预措施的自动化方法。然而,这些方法的一个共同缺点是,它们大多忽略了将稀缺的道路空间分配给不同模式时的权衡和依赖关系。在本文中,我们介绍了一种在现有道路空间范围内生成替代多式联运网络的自动化流程。根据用户的配置,生成的网络可以优先考虑分离式自行车基础设施、公共交通专用车道或密集的路边停车位。此外,优先级和由此产生的设计还可以遵循各种设计原则,如单行道或防渗超级街区。设计结果可在地图上直观显示,并可用于常用的交通模拟工具包。苏黎世的一个案例研究用于演示在真实世界网络中的流程并讨论结果。基础软件包 SNMan(街道网络操纵器)是开源软件,研究人员和规划人员可以利用它来设想世界上任何地方的另一种城市交通未来。
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引用次数: 0
Scooting into place: How comfort on different infrastructure types influences shared e-scooter trip making 滑行到位:不同类型基础设施的舒适度如何影响共享电动滑板车出行
Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100047
Adam Weiss , Sam Pollock , Lina Kattan
Shared e-scooters are a growing disruptive micro-mobility technology. Several Canadian cities, including Calgary, have launched pilot programs to test these micro-mobility options. As part of the Calgarian pilot, a public engagement survey was launched to collect information about the public’s perception of shared e-scooters. The survey includes a set of questions related to users’ perception of comfort using shared e-scooters on various infrastructure types: roads, bike lanes, sidewalks and dedicated pathways, as well as a question related to the frequency of use of the e-scooters. Comfort in general and specific comfort on the type of infrastructure most used is expected to have a high degree of correlation with the frequency of use. We present a joint ordered choice model examining how different sociodemographic characteristics and typical travel patterns of the survey respondents influence perceptions of comfort on these different infrastructure types and their frequency of e-scooter use. The model estimation results show that e-scooter use is not uniform across age and gender demographics and that infrastructure, riding comfort, and e-scooter use are linked. E-scooter riding comfort was negatively associated with infrastructure types that led to more potential interactions with motor vehicles and pedestrians. These results will allow decision makers to tailor new policies and prioritize infrastructure to improve the overall usage of e-scooters and maximize the benefits these new technologies will provide.
共享电动滑板车是一种不断发展的颠覆性微型交通技术。包括卡尔加里在内的几个加拿大城市已经启动了试点项目,以测试这些微型交通选择。作为卡尔加里试点项目的一部分,启动了一项公众参与调查,以收集有关公众对共享电动滑板车看法的信息。该调查包括一系列问题,涉及用户对在各种基础设施类型(道路、自行车道、人行道和专用道)上使用共享电动滑板车舒适度的看法,以及一个有关电动滑板车使用频率的问题。一般舒适度和在最常用的基础设施类型上的具体舒适度预计与使用频率高度相关。我们提出了一个联合有序选择模型,研究调查对象的不同社会人口特征和典型出行模式如何影响他们对这些不同类型基础设施的舒适度感知及其使用电动滑板车的频率。模型估计结果表明,不同年龄和性别的人群对电动摩托车的使用并不一致,而基础设施、骑行舒适度和电动摩托车的使用是相互关联的。电动滑板车的骑行舒适度与基础设施类型呈负相关,而基础设施类型会导致电动滑板车与机动车和行人产生更多潜在的互动。这些结果将有助于决策者调整新政策和基础设施的优先次序,以提高电动滑板车的总体使用率,并最大限度地发挥这些新技术将带来的益处。
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引用次数: 0
A deep reinforcement learning solution to help reduce the cost in waiting time of securing a traffic light for cyclists 深度强化学习解决方案,帮助降低为骑车人争取交通信号灯的等待时间成本
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100046
Lucas Magnana , Hervé Rivano , Nicolas Chiabaut

Cyclists prefer to use infrastructures that separate them from motorized traffic. Using a traffic light to segregate car and bike flows, with the addition of bike-specific green phases, is a lightweight and cheap solution that can be deployed dynamically to assess the opportunity of a heavier infrastructure such as a separate bike lane. To compensate for the increased waiting time induced by these new phases, we introduce in this paper a deep reinforcement learning solution that adapts the green phase cycle of a traffic light to the traffic. Vehicle counter data are used to compare the DRL approach with the actuated traffic light control algorithm over whole days. Results show that DRL achieves better minimization of vehicle waiting time at every hours. Our DRL approach is also robust to moderate changes in bike traffic. The code used for this paper is available at : https://github.com/LucasMagnana/A-DRL-solution-to-help-reduce-the-cost-in-waiting-time-of-securing-a-traffic-light-for-cyclists

骑自行车的人更喜欢使用能将他们与机动车辆分隔开来的基础设施。使用红绿灯隔离汽车流和自行车流,并增加自行车专用的绿色阶段,是一种轻便、廉价的解决方案,可以动态部署,以评估更重的基础设施(如单独的自行车道)的机会。为了弥补这些新阶段导致的等待时间增加,我们在本文中介绍了一种深度强化学习解决方案,该方案可根据交通流量调整交通信号灯的绿灯周期。我们使用车辆计数器数据对 DRL 方法和全天交通灯控制算法进行了比较。结果表明,DRL 更好地减少了每个时段的车辆等待时间。我们的 DRL 方法对自行车流量的适度变化也很稳健。本文使用的代码可在以下网址获取: https://github.com/LucasMagnana/A-DRL-solution-to-help-reduce-the-cost-in-waiting-time-of-securing-a-traffic-light-for-cyclists
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引用次数: 0
Bike users’ route choice behaviour: Expectations from electric bikes versus reality in Greater Helsinki 自行车用户的路线选择行为:大赫尔辛基地区电动自行车的期望与现实
Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100045
Khashayar Khavarian , Shaghayegh Vosough , Claudio Roncoli

Electric pedal-assist bikes (e-bikes) are an emerging technology that aims to enhance cycling by incorporating battery-powered motors activated while pedalling. To promote cycling effectively, it is crucial to understand the factors that influence cyclists’ route choice behaviour. This study investigates individual route choice behaviour among cyclists, taking into account their bike type (i.e., e-bikes and regular bikes). Data collected through a stated preference (SP) survey in Finland is analysed using discrete choice models to compare the differences between e-bike and regular bike users’ route choice behaviour. The study also compares the outputs of multinomial and mixed Logit models for both e-bike and regular bike users to address the impact of error correlation in SP data. Furthermore, by employing a classification approach, the study examines the differences between the expected and actual behavioural changes upon using e-bikes, referred to as the expectation–reality gap, in terms of route choice behaviour. Our research findings highlight certain factors that consistently promote cycling among both regular bike and e-bike users, specifically, low interaction with traffic, fewer intersections, and the presence of separated bike facilities. Also, our findings imply that the SP survey is well-designed to capture the preferences of the individuals. Hence, the observations are not severely correlated, i.e., errors can be assumed to be independently and identically distributed. Furthermore, we show that regular bike and e-bike users with similar characteristics do not share similar beliefs regarding the effects of e-bikes on their cycling habits.

电动脚踏助力自行车(电动自行车)是一种新兴技术,旨在通过在踩踏时安装电池供电的电机来提高自行车的骑行效率。要有效推广自行车运动,了解影响骑车人路线选择行为的因素至关重要。本研究在考虑自行车类型(即电动自行车和普通自行车)的基础上,调查了骑车人的个人路线选择行为。通过离散选择模型对在芬兰进行的陈述偏好(SP)调查收集的数据进行了分析,以比较电动自行车和普通自行车用户在路线选择行为上的差异。研究还比较了电动自行车和普通自行车用户的多项式和混合 Logit 模型的输出结果,以解决 SP 数据中误差相关性的影响。此外,本研究还采用分类方法,从路线选择行为的角度研究了使用电动自行车时预期行为变化与实际行为变化之间的差异,即预期与现实之间的差距。我们的研究结果强调了一些因素,这些因素始终促进普通自行车和电动自行车用户骑自行车,特别是与交通的互动少、交叉路口少以及存在分隔的自行车设施。此外,我们的研究结果还表明,SP 调查的设计很好地捕捉到了个人的偏好。因此,观察结果不存在严重的相关性,即误差可以假定为独立且相同的分布。此外,我们还表明,具有相似特征的普通自行车用户和电动自行车用户对电动自行车对其骑车习惯的影响并没有相似的看法。
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引用次数: 0
Overtaking on rural roads – Cyclists' and motorists' perspectives 乡村道路上的超车--骑自行车者和驾车者的观点
Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100044
Katja Kircher , Magdalena Lindman

Cycling is good for health and the environment, and urban traffic planning is increasingly focused on making cycling easier and safer for everyone. Cycling in rural areas also has a high potential for increased cycling, but fundamental knowledge about rural road cycling is missing. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of rural cycling and the perceptions of cyclists and motorists on rural roads, especially in overtaking situations. Cross-sectional data from three surveys with 1899 respondents in total were used, whereof one survey provides results representative for Swedish adults in terms of age, gender, income, educational level and geographical regions. In total, 38 % of the respondents use rural roads as cyclists or pedestrians, 10 % never use rural roads and the remaining 52 % use rural roads as motorists only. Out of the latter, 44 % stated that they would like to cycle on rural roads, but do not do so for various reasons. The way overtaking manoeuvres are experienced differs between motorists with and without cycling experience. Qualitative analyses revealed which factors make cyclists uncomfortable during overtaking manoeuvres on rural roads. These should be considered when developing recommendations for appropriate overtaking manoeuvres. Examples of application are legislation, motorist information campaigns, driver coaching and future vehicle automation systems.

骑自行车有利于健康和环境,城市交通规划也越来越注重让骑自行车对每个人来说都更方便、更安全。在农村地区骑自行车也有很大的发展潜力,但有关农村道路自行车的基本知识还很缺乏。本研究旨在调查农村骑车的普遍程度以及骑车人和驾车人对农村道路的看法,尤其是在超车情况下。研究采用了三项调查的横截面数据,共有 1899 名受访者,其中一项调查的结果在年龄、性别、收入、教育水平和地理区域方面对瑞典成年人具有代表性。总共有 38% 的受访者作为骑车人或行人使用乡村道路,10% 的受访者从不使用乡村道路,其余 52% 的受访者仅作为驾车人使用乡村道路。在后者中,44% 的人表示愿意在乡村道路上骑自行车,但由于种种原因没有这样做。有和没有骑自行车经验的驾驶者对超车动作的体验不同。定性分析揭示了哪些因素会让骑车人在乡村道路上超车时感到不舒服。在制定适当的超车操作建议时,应考虑到这些因素。应用实例包括立法、机动车驾驶员信息宣传活动、驾驶员培训和未来的车辆自动化系统。
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引用次数: 0
Potential of e-bikes to replace passenger car trips and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 电动自行车替代乘用车出行和减少温室气体排放的潜力
Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100043
Çağlar Tozluoğlu, Yuan Liao, Frances Sprei

In Sweden, the transport sector accounts for 32% of greenhouse gas emissions, with passenger cars contributing to 62% of these. In this context, electric bikes, commonly known as e-bikes, have emerged as a promising solution for reducing carbon emissions in the transport sector. This paper explores the potential of e-bikes in substituting passenger car trips and reducing transportation-related emissions. To achieve this objective, we use a synthetic population in the Västra Götaland (VG) region, Sweden, with daily activity schedules and simulate an average weekday of travelling with e-bikes instead of their private cars. For assessing the potential for e-bike substitution, the current literature often relies on trip-level analysis, which does not adequately consider people’s daily travel-activity plans, resulting in an unrealistic estimation of replaceable trips and their carbon emissions reduction. Combining an e-bike speed model by agents’ characteristics and an open-source routing engine, our simulation identifies potential car trips that can be replaced with e-bikes, considering all activities and the travel between them for an average weekday. The simulation results suggest that e-bikes could replace 57.6% of car trips. Building on this, we explore the potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from car trips taken by residents in the study area. If the top 70% of feasible car users, ranked by shortest to longest daily travel distances, switch to e-bikes, emissions could be reduced by 10.1% compared to 2018 levels. If all feasible car users adopt e-bikes, a reduction of up to 22.8% in emissions could be achieved, representing the upper limit presented by our study. The findings also reveal that males under 40 years old provide the highest e-bike substitution rates in their daily activity schedules, and in areas with a high population density, replaceable car trips are more common than in rural areas. This research provides valuable insights into e-bike substitution and its impact on emission reduction. It contributes to the existing literature through its modelling approach that realistically considers individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics and daily activity schedules when assessing the substitution potential.

在瑞典,交通部门的温室气体排放量占 32%,其中乘用车占 62%。在这种情况下,电动自行车(俗称电动自行车)已成为减少交通部门碳排放的一种有前途的解决方案。本文探讨了电动自行车在替代乘用车出行和减少交通相关排放方面的潜力。为了实现这一目标,我们在瑞典韦斯特拉戈塔兰(VG)地区使用了一个具有日常活动时间表的合成人口,并模拟了一个使用电动自行车代替私家车出行的平均工作日。为了评估电动自行车的替代潜力,目前的文献通常依赖于出行层面的分析,这种分析没有充分考虑人们的日常出行活动计划,导致对可替代出行及其碳减排量的估算不切实际。我们的模拟结合了电动自行车速度模型和开放源码路由引擎,考虑到一个普通工作日的所有活动和活动之间的出行,确定了可以用电动自行车替代的潜在汽车出行。模拟结果表明,电动自行车可替代 57.6% 的汽车出行。在此基础上,我们探讨了研究区居民汽车出行可能减少的温室气体排放量。如果前 70% 的可行汽车用户(按最短到最长的每日出行距离排序)改用电动自行车,与 2018 年的水平相比,排放量可减少 10.1%。如果所有可行的汽车用户都采用电动自行车,则排放量最多可减少 22.8%,这是我们研究提出的上限。研究结果还显示,40 岁以下的男性在日常活动中使用电动自行车的替代率最高,在人口密度高的地区,可替代的汽车出行比农村地区更为普遍。这项研究为电动自行车替代及其对减排的影响提供了宝贵的见解。该研究的建模方法在评估替代潜力时真实地考虑了个人的社会人口特征和日常活动安排,为现有文献做出了贡献。
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Journal of Cycling and Micromobility Research
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