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Whither U.S. inflation and interest rates? 美国通胀和利率走向何方?
IF 1.3 Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100184
David Andolfatto
I consider a long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. My thesis is that the U.S. has moved from a deflationary regime to an inflationary regime. The shift is associated with China’s emergence as a bona fide geopolitical rival to the U.S. and what this geopolitical event implies for the supply and demand for U.S. Treasury securities going forward. U.S. fiscal deficits are likely to remain large. The growth in the global demand for U.S. Treasury securities shows signs of slowing. Together, these forces are likely to exert upward pressure on U.S. inflation and interest rates.
我考虑的是美国经济的长期前景。我的论点是,美国已经从一个通缩体制转向了一个通胀体制。这种转变与中国崛起为美国真正的地缘政治对手,以及这一地缘政治事件对未来美国国债供需的影响有关。美国财政赤字可能仍将保持在高位。全球对美国国债需求的增长出现放缓迹象。这些因素加在一起,可能会给美国的通胀和利率带来上行压力。
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引用次数: 0
The role of informality in the economic growth, employment, and inflation during the COVID-19 crisis COVID-19危机期间非正规经济在经济增长、就业和通货膨胀中的作用
Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100150
Manuel Torres-Favela, Edgar M. Luna
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the global economy, with variable effects on economic growth, employment, and inflation rates in different countries and regions. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region experienced the most severe consequences for economic growth and employment, while the change in inflation was relatively less affected. A notable characteristic of the LAC region is its high level of informality and its close relationship with inflation dynamics. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was built and simulated to understand the role of informality in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings highlight that the informal sector exacerbates the negative impacts of the crisis on economic growth and employment rates but mitigates the inflationary effects resulting from the containment measures. In summary, the high rates of informality in the LAC region play an important role in shaping the consequences of restrictive measures to curb the pandemic on the economy.
新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济产生重大影响,对不同国家和地区的经济增长、就业和通货膨胀率产生了不同的影响。拉丁美洲和加勒比区域对经济增长和就业的影响最为严重,而通货膨胀的变化受到的影响相对较小。拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的一个显著特点是其高度的非正式性及其与通货膨胀动态的密切关系。建立并模拟了一个动态随机一般均衡模型,以了解非正式性在COVID-19危机中的作用。调查结果强调,非正规部门加剧了危机对经济增长和就业率的负面影响,但减轻了遏制措施造成的通货膨胀影响。总而言之,拉丁美洲和加勒比区域的高非正规率在形成遏制该流行病的限制性措施对经济的影响方面发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Capital ratios and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital: Evidence from Chilean banks 资本比率和加权平均资本成本:智利银行的证据
Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100143
Rodrigo Cifuentes , Tomás Gómez , Alejandro Jara
This paper finds that an additional percentage point in the ratio of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital to risk-weighted assets is associated with an increase in the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of Chilean banks by a maximum of only 11.7 basis points. This result is found by evaluating the impact of capital ratios on the return on capital and on the return on debt, following alternative empirical strategies which consider both market data and bank balance sheet information. Higher capital ratios decrease the return on banks’ capital – partly because more capital makes banks less risky – in magnitudes similar to those found in the literature for other countries. Second, we study the role of capital in the return of bank debt. We see a strong impact of capital ratios on the return of subordinated debt and no effect on senior debt.
本文发现,普通股一级资本(CET1)与风险加权资产的比率每增加一个百分点,智利银行的加权平均资本成本(WACC)最多只会增加11.7个基点。通过评估资本比率对资本回报率和债务回报率的影响,遵循考虑市场数据和银行资产负债表信息的替代实证策略,发现了这一结果。较高的资本充足率降低了银行的资本回报率——部分原因是资本增加会降低银行的风险——其程度与其他国家的文献中发现的相似。其次,我们研究了资本在银行债务回报中的作用。我们看到,资本比率对次级债务的回报率有很大影响,而对优先债务没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
From bottlenecks to inflation: Impact of global supply-chain disruptions on inflation in select Asian economies 从瓶颈到通胀:全球供应链中断对部分亚洲经济体通货膨胀的影响
Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100141
Reizle Jade C. Platitas, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo
Supply-chain bottlenecks emerged alongside unprecedented inflationary surges amid the resulting mismatches in supply and demand for goods and services throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This study employs a local projection approach to investigate the inflationary impact of global supply-chain pressures in the Philippines and select East Asian neighbors. We find that supply-chain disruptions are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in headline inflation in the Philippines, Rep. of Korea, Thailand, and Singapore. Supply-chain shocks also have a considerable impact on the tradable segment of core inflation. Meanwhile, non-tradable inflation has a generally smaller, short-lived, and insignificant response to global supply-chain pressures reflecting the limited presence of second-round, indirect effects.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,由于商品和服务的供需不匹配,供应链瓶颈与前所未有的通胀飙升同时出现。本研究采用本地预测方法,探讨全球供应链压力对菲律宾及东亚邻国的通胀影响。我们发现,在菲律宾、韩国、泰国和新加坡,供应链中断之后,总体通货膨胀率会出现可观的、统计上显著的上升。供应链冲击对核心通胀的可交易部分也有相当大的影响。与此同时,非贸易通胀对全球供应链压力的反应通常较小、短暂且微不足道,这反映了第二轮间接影响的有限存在。
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引用次数: 0
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in Latin America and the Caribbean 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的中央银行数字货币(CBDCs)
Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100140
Viviana Alfonso C , Steven Kamin , Fabrizio Zampolli
The pros and cons of CBDCs have been examined in numerous writings but much less research has focused on specific economies or regions. This paper attempts to fill that gap for the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies. It first examines the views of central banks in the region toward CBDCs, drawing on a BIS survey conducted in late 2020 and early 2021. It finds that a large share of LAC central banks are engaged in CBDC research, as in other regions, and that their interest is primarily centred around financial inclusion, efficiency, and safety of the domestic payments system. Second, the paper examines whether the engagement of LAC central banks with CBDCs can be explained by the structural characteristics of their economies. It finds higher engagement in countries with strong innovation, fast payment systems, high government effectiveness, high financial development, and strong interest in CBDCs by the public. LAC jurisdictions are generally weaker in these areas than in advanced economies but are broadly comparable to other EMDEs. Third, the paper identifies potential benefits of CBDCs that are particularly relevant for LAC economies: promotion of financial inclusion; reduction of informality; increasing the resilience of the payment system in the face of natural disasters; increasing competition in the payments system; and reducing the cost of cross-border payments. The paper also discusses the costs and risks of CBDCs but argues that these can be addressed through proper design and implementation. Finally, the paper reviews the design choices made by a number of central banks in the region and the associated implementation issues. Common features of CBDCs in use include a two-tier architecture, offline capabilities, restriction to be used only by residents, and safeguards for privacy, but they differ in their approach to ledger management.
许多著作都对cbdc的利弊进行了研究,但针对特定经济体或地区的研究要少得多。本文试图为拉丁美洲和加勒比(LAC)经济体填补这一空白。它首先根据国际清算银行在2020年底和2021年初进行的一项调查,研究了该地区央行对cbdc的看法。报告发现,与其他地区一样,拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的大部分中央银行都参与了CBDC的研究,它们的兴趣主要集中在国内支付系统的金融包容性、效率和安全性上。其次,本文考察了拉美和加勒比地区央行与cbdc的接触是否可以用其经济的结构特征来解释。报告发现,在创新能力强、支付系统快速、政府效率高、金融发展程度高、公众对cbdc有浓厚兴趣的国家,参与程度更高。拉美和加勒比地区的司法管辖区在这些领域普遍弱于发达经济体,但与其他新兴市场发展中国家大体相当。第三,本文确定了cbdc与LAC经济体特别相关的潜在好处:促进金融包容性;减少不拘礼节;提高支付系统面对自然灾害的应变能力;支付系统竞争加剧;降低跨境支付的成本。该论文还讨论了cbdc的成本和风险,但认为这些可以通过适当的设计和实施来解决。最后,本文回顾了该地区一些中央银行所做的设计选择以及相关的实施问题。正在使用的cbdc的共同特征包括两层架构、离线功能、仅限居民使用的限制以及隐私保护,但它们在分类账管理方法上有所不同。
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引用次数: 0
The interdependencies of Canadian financial institutions: An application to climate transition shocks 加拿大金融机构的相互依赖性:对气候转型冲击的应用
IF 1.3 Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100163
Gabriel Bruneau , Javier Ojea-Ferreiro , Andrew Plummer , Marie-Christine Tremblay , Aidan Witts
We develop a methodological framework to analyse systemic risks capturing both direct and indirect (or systemic) effects. We apply it to climate transition shocks in the context of Canada. We use scenario analysis to capture the direct effects—in the form of credit, market and liquidity risks—on public and private assets and derivatives portfolios of deposit-taking institutions, life insurance companies, pension funds and investment funds. We extend an agent-based model to capture the indirect—or systemic effects—via an interconnected financial system. The model assumes behavioural and regulatory rules and includes transmission channels such as cross-holding positions, business similarities, common exposures and fire sales. We find that delayed climate transition scenario may only modestly transmit through the Canadian financial system, but systemic interconnections amplify these effects.
我们开发了一个方法框架来分析系统性风险,包括直接和间接(或系统性)影响。我们将其应用于加拿大背景下的气候转型冲击。我们使用情景分析来捕捉以信贷、市场和流动性风险的形式对公共和私人资产以及存款机构、人寿保险公司、养老基金和投资基金的衍生品投资组合的直接影响。我们扩展了一个基于主体的模型,通过一个相互关联的金融体系来捕捉间接或系统效应。该模型假定了行为和监管规则,并包括交叉持有头寸、业务相似性、共同风险敞口和低价出售等传播渠道。我们发现,延迟的气候转型情景可能只会适度地通过加拿大的金融体系传导,但系统的相互联系放大了这些影响。
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引用次数: 0
The loan puzzle in Mexico 墨西哥的贷款难题
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100160
Luis Fernando Colunga-Ramos
Empirical evidence for advanced economies suggests that following a monetary tightening, commercial and industrial bank loans show a positive “puzzling response”. Since there is no wide evidence for the Mexican case, this paper analyzes the response of bank loans at the sectoral level after a monetary contraction. For this purpose, I estimate a structural VAR model with block exogeneity to identify a monetary shock for a small open economy. The results show evidence of firms’ loan puzzles during 2001-2019 characterized by an inflation-targeting regime in Mexico. Those short-lived loan puzzles are mainly observed in sectors with the lowest delinquency rates during the period of analysis. My finding of the loan puzzle at the aggregate level in a recent sample arises in a closed as well as in an open economy approach.
发达经济体的经验证据表明,在货币紧缩之后,商业和工业银行贷款表现出积极的“令人困惑的反应”。由于没有关于墨西哥案例的广泛证据,本文分析了货币紧缩后部门层面银行贷款的反应。为此,我估计了一个具有块外生性的结构性VAR模型,以确定小型开放经济体的货币冲击。结果显示了2001年至2019年期间企业贷款难题的证据,其特征是墨西哥的通胀目标制。这些短期贷款难题主要出现在分析期间拖欠率最低的部门。我在最近的一个样本中发现,在总水平上的贷款谜题既出现在封闭经济方法中,也出现在开放经济方法中。
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引用次数: 0
Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions 2000年代的巴西经济:两次衰退的故事
Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100162
Matheus Cardoso Leal, Márcio Issao Nakane
During the 2008 Great Recession, the adoption of counter-cyclical economic policies made the Brazilian economy more resilient. However, a noteworthy shift occurred in 2014, marked by a deterioration in Brazil’s macroeconomic landscape, primarily driven by a worsening debt situation. Consequently, this downturn led to a decline in private investment, an upswing in unemployment rates, and negative growth rates over multiple quarters. To comprehend these macroeconomic fluctuations, this paper employs the Business Cycle Accounting (BCA) analytical framework, focusing on quarterly data spanning from 2002 to 2019. Among the key findings, the study reveals that the efficiency wedge played a pivotal role in replicating observed output movements during both recessions, with the labor wedge following closely. Investment and government consumption wedges were not significant business cycle drivers in the period.
在2008年大衰退期间,采取反周期经济政策使巴西经济更具弹性。然而,2014年发生了一个值得注意的变化,主要是由于债务状况恶化,巴西的宏观经济形势恶化。因此,这次衰退导致私人投资下降,失业率上升,以及多个季度的负增长。为了理解这些宏观经济波动,本文采用了商业周期会计(BCA)分析框架,重点关注2002年至2019年的季度数据。在主要发现中,研究表明,在两次经济衰退期间,效率楔子在复制观察到的产出运动中发挥了关键作用,劳动力楔子紧随其后。在此期间,投资和政府消费楔子并不是重要的商业周期驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of financial inclusion on economic and social indicators in Mexico 金融包容性对墨西哥经济和社会指标的影响
Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100161
Guadalupe del Carmen Briano-Turrent
This paper analyses the relationship between financial inclusion and the economic and social development in Mexico. For this quantitative research, a study sample composed by 448 observations during the 2007–2020 was analyzed using fixed effect estimations with instrumental variables 2SLS. Empirical results show that access to banking services reduces poverty, informality and inequality and favor the human development and its components of health, standard of living and education. The banking penetration decreases poverty, informality and inequality and enhances the standard of living and education. An increase in the usage of banking services diminishes the poverty and informality and increases the human development. This research contributes to practical implications for policy makers to enhance financial inclusion and human development in Mexico.
本文分析了墨西哥普惠金融与经济社会发展的关系。在此定量研究中,采用工具变量2SLS的固定效应估计方法,对2007-2020年期间由448个观测数据组成的研究样本进行了分析。实证结果表明,获得银行服务可以减少贫困、不正规和不平等现象,有利于人类发展及其组成部分,包括健康、生活水平和教育。银行的渗透减少了贫困、非正规和不平等,提高了生活水平和教育水平。银行服务使用的增加减少了贫困和非正式性,并促进了人类发展。本研究对政策制定者加强墨西哥的金融包容性和人类发展具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Crypto assets and CBDCs in Latin America and the Caribbean: Opportunities and risks 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的加密资产和cbdc:机遇与风险
Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100157
Olga Bespalova, Maximiliano Appendino, Rina Bhattacharya, Jean Francois Clevy Aguilar, Nan Geng, Takuji Komatsuzaki, Justin Lesniak, Weicheng Lian, Sandra Marcelino, Mauricio Villafuerte, Yorbol Yakhshilikov
After providing a general overview of the nature, pros, and cons of crypto assets and CBDCs, this paper focuses on documenting their recent experience in LAC. The region records a high interest in unbacked crypto assets and stablecoins and its authorities’ policy responses have varied substantially, ranging from the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador to their prohibition in many other countries worried about their impact on financial stability, currency/asset substitution, tax evasion, corruption, and money laundering. This paper also describes briefly the results of a survey on CBDCs’ introduction plans and crypto assets regulation. Finally, this paper presents some general lessons and policy recommendations for the region on the regulation of crypto assets, digital currencies and cross-border payments, and on the potential introduction of CBDCs.
在概述了加密资产和cbdc的性质、优缺点之后,本文重点介绍了它们最近在LAC方面的经验。该地区对无担保的加密资产和稳定币有着浓厚的兴趣,其当局的政策反应各不相同,从在萨尔瓦多引入比特币作为法定货币,到许多其他国家因担心比特币对金融稳定、货币/资产替代、逃税、腐败和洗钱的影响而禁止比特币。本文还简要介绍了对cbdc的引入计划和加密资产监管的调查结果。最后,本文为该地区提供了一些关于加密资产、数字货币和跨境支付监管以及潜在引入cbdc的一般经验教训和政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Latin American Journal of Central Banking
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