Latin American Journal of Central Banking最新文献

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the introduction, in October 2018, of maximum thresholds (“caps”) on debit card interchange fees for domestic payment cards in Brazil. We investigate the behavior of card issuers’ revenues from debit and credit card interchange fees, the merchant discount rate (MDR) of debit transactions, debit and credit card usage, and debit card scheme fees paid by card issuers and acquirers after the cap. We find a gradual and increasing reduction in the MDR, from 6.0% in 2018Q4 to 22.8% in 2020Q1. Additionally, we observe a statistically significant difference between debit and credit card MDR in 2019Q4 and 2020Q1. The cap reduces card issuers’ earnings from the debit card interchange fee proportionally to the cut but does not affect similar revenues from credit cards. Overall, there is no evidence that the regulation of the debit card interchange fee changes the dynamics of debit card usage or that it changes debit card scheme fees.

This paper describes the set of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models that Banco de España uses to project GDP growth rates and to simulate macrofinancial risk scenarios for Brazil and Mexico. The toolkit consists of large benchmark models to produce baseline projections and various smaller satellite models to conduct risk scenarios. We showcase the use of this modeling framework with tailored empirical applications. Given the material importance of Brazil and Mexico to the Spanish economy and banking system, this toolkit contributes to the monitoring of Spain’s international risk exposure.

In this paper, we analyze BRICS countries’ long-term exchange rate market efficiency. Our analysis, using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) for the 2009–2021 period, shows considerable differences in the exchange rate efficiency of BRICS countries, with South Africa the most efficient and China the least efficient. Based on daily exchange rates, our analysis shows that after a country shifts to a flexible exchange rate regime, the price efficiency of its currency improves, but not immediately. All the BRICS countries show improvements in market efficiency over the 13-year period of our study. The adaptive market hypothesis supports our finding of efficiency improvements over time more than the efficient market hypothesis does.

The article analyzes the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Mexico. We calibrated a semi-structural model for a small open economy, based on Aguilar and Ramírez-Bulos (2018), for Mexico by using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4. The fiscal policy block models the fiscal deficit depending on output, an endogenous sovereign risk premium, a state-owned oil company, and public debt dynamics with domestic and foreign components. We assumed a fiscal rule whereby the deficit has an upper bound. The monetary policy follows a Taylor rule. We study the effects of different shocks on the economy, such as a drop in commodity prices, an expansion of public spending, an increase in the risk premium, a hike in the interest rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate. We show that, remarkably, the risk premium channel transmits threats from the fiscal block to the monetary block, calling for the central bank to stabilize inflation. By contrast, starting at the economy’s steady state, an exogenous monetary policy shock affects the fiscal block mainly through the interest rate’s influence on the debt service, prompting a fiscal response to stabilize deficit.

This article provides several estimates for the shadow rate (SR) of the short-term interest rate in US. We assume maximal models with two and three Gaussian factors, and we use forward rates to estimate the model’s parameters. Based on that, we conclude that point estimates of SR should be taken with caution because they depend on the characteristics of the data set, including the sample size, maturities, and smoothness. The latter is even more crucial than other settings discussed previously in the literature, such as the number of factors.

The COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably caused both supply and demand shocks. Nevertheless, it is uncertain to what extent each factor contributed more to the evolution of prices and economic activity at different points since the onset of the pandemic. Whether inflationary pressures are mainly due to demand or supply shocks is an important matter for the stance of monetary policy. By employing a sign-restricted SBVAR, we study supply and demand factors as potential sources of heterogeneity in sectoral performance of economic activity in Mexico. We find that during the peak contraction in 2020-2Q, the demand shock was the dominant source of fluctuation across most sectors. Moreover, we assess the extent to which economic activity responds to foreign shocks and find that domestic demand shocks are the primary drivers of GDP fluctuations in 2020-2Q, with external demand and supply conditions and exchange rate shocks also playing significant roles. In contrast, since the beginning of 2021, external supply has negatively contributed to the variation of several sectors, particularly in industrial production, whereas domestic and external demand factors have generally positively contributed.

This document presents a multivariate analysis of the relationship among daily returns of pension funds in Mexico from 1997 to 2019. We provide evidence of a positive relationship among daily returns through five statistical methods. We find Granger causality of the returns of some funds to others, showing that some managers’ decisions affect the others’ investment decisions. We introduce financial-connectedness indicators for daily returns, finding a high degree of linkage and spillovers. The high levels of financial connectedness observed suggest that shocks on the economy affect the SIEFORE returns in the same direction and with generally similar magnitude.

Since the institution of a unified European market, the retail payment system has changed significantly. In September 2020, the European Commission adopted the Digital Finance Package, that includes a digital finance strategy, legislative proposals on crypto-assets and digital resilience, as well as a renewed strategy for retail payments.

This work proposes the framework for a new pan-European retail payment system based on public identity recognition and disintermediation of currently used devices: Euro-PaID. The aim is to have a competitive EU financial sector that gives consumers access to innovative financial products whilst ensuring consumer protection and financial stability.

The new system is designed in compliance with existing regulations. However, because certain aspects do not fall within the scope of applicable EU law, ad hoc regulation should be enacted. We concluded that a holistic approach is essential in rethinking regulation to address the numerous social implications of a hypothetical change in the payments system.