Natural Hazards Research最新文献_第5页

Surface creep differences and affecting factor along the Xianshuihe fault zone in response to the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes 汶川、芦山地震后鲜水河断裂带地表蠕变差异及其影响因素

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.008

Guanzhong Liu , Aichun Liu , Qin Su , Lianglong Fan , Ao Song , Aipeng Guo , Yanxing Li

As the southwest and southeast boundaries of the Bayan Har block, the Xianshuihe Fault Zone (XSHFZ) and the Longmenshan Fault Zone (LMSFZ) are likely to be intrinsically related in terms of tectonic activity. Consequently, it is pertinent to consider the potential response of fault creep in the XSHFZ when the LMSFZ encounters different major earthquake disturbances. This paper presents a comparative and analytical study of the fault creep characteristics of the XSHFZ, employing cross-fault short-baseline survey data collected prior to and following the Wenchuan M8.0 and Lushan M7.0 earthquakes. The findings indicate that despite the Wenchuan earthquake having a significantly higher magnitude than the Lushan earthquake and the theoretical static stress change being considerably larger than that of the Lushan earthquake, the absolute velocity and incremental change of fault creep in the XSHFZ before and after the Wenchuan earthquake are less pronounced than those observed before and after the Lushan earthquake. Following the Wenchuan earthquake, the creep rate and nature of the XSHFZ remained largely unchanged, with a slight decrease in the average slip rate. However, in the aftermath of the Lushan earthquake, the XSHFZ exhibited clear signs of "activation," with a notable increase in the average creep rate and the emergence of strong tensional motion. It is hypothesized that the Maerkang, Miyaluo, Minshan, and Huya Fault Zones within the Longmenshan sub-block contributed to the increased complexity of the strong earthquake process, potentially acting as a 'regulating valve' in influencing the redistribution of post-seismic stress and the creep pattern of adjacent faults. Consequently, their roles in regional tectonic activity cannot be overlooked.

鲜水河断裂带（XSHFZ）和龙门山断裂带（LMSFZ）作为巴颜喀尔地块的西南和东南边界，在构造活动上可能具有内在联系。因此，在大地震扰动下，考虑大地震扰动对大地震带断层蠕变的潜在响应是有意义的。本文利用汶川8.0级地震和芦山7.0级地震前后的跨断层短基线调查资料，对XSHFZ断层蠕变特征进行了对比分析研究。结果表明，尽管汶川地震震级明显高于芦山地震，理论静态应力变化也明显大于芦山地震，但汶川地震前后XSHFZ断层蠕变的绝对速度和增量变化不如芦山地震前后观测到的明显。汶川地震后，XSHFZ的蠕变速率和性质基本保持不变，平均滑动速率略有下降。然而，在芦山地震之后，XSHFZ表现出明显的“激活”迹象，平均蠕变速率明显增加，出现了强烈的张拉运动。假设龙门山子块内的马尔康、米亚罗、岷山和虎牙断裂带增加了强震过程的复杂性，可能在影响震后应力分布和相邻断裂蠕变模式方面发挥“调节阀”的作用。因此，它们在区域构造活动中的作用不容忽视。

{"title":"Surface creep differences and affecting factor along the Xianshuihe fault zone in response to the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes","authors":"Guanzhong Liu , Aichun Liu , Qin Su , Lianglong Fan , Ao Song , Aipeng Guo , Yanxing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the southwest and southeast boundaries of the Bayan Har block, the Xianshuihe Fault Zone (XSHFZ) and the Longmenshan Fault Zone (LMSFZ) are likely to be intrinsically related in terms of tectonic activity. Consequently, it is pertinent to consider the potential response of fault creep in the XSHFZ when the LMSFZ encounters different major earthquake disturbances. This paper presents a comparative and analytical study of the fault creep characteristics of the XSHFZ, employing cross-fault short-baseline survey data collected prior to and following the Wenchuan M8.0 and Lushan M7.0 earthquakes. The findings indicate that despite the Wenchuan earthquake having a significantly higher magnitude than the Lushan earthquake and the theoretical static stress change being considerably larger than that of the Lushan earthquake, the absolute velocity and incremental change of fault creep in the XSHFZ before and after the Wenchuan earthquake are less pronounced than those observed before and after the Lushan earthquake. Following the Wenchuan earthquake, the creep rate and nature of the XSHFZ remained largely unchanged, with a slight decrease in the average slip rate. However, in the aftermath of the Lushan earthquake, the XSHFZ exhibited clear signs of \"activation,\" with a notable increase in the average creep rate and the emergence of strong tensional motion. It is hypothesized that the Maerkang, Miyaluo, Minshan, and Huya Fault Zones within the Longmenshan sub-block contributed to the increased complexity of the strong earthquake process, potentially acting as a 'regulating valve' in influencing the redistribution of post-seismic stress and the creep pattern of adjacent faults. Consequently, their roles in regional tectonic activity cannot be overlooked.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 391-398"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Flood hazard zones prediction using machine-learning-based geospatial approach in lower Niger River basin, Nigeria 基于机器学习的地理空间方法在尼日利亚尼日尔河下游流域的洪水危险区预测

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.002

Adedoyin Benson Adeyemi, Akinola Adesuji Komolafe

Flooding has had devastating impacts on lives and properties over the years, caused as a result of climate change, rapid population growth, urbanization, and poor urban planning. The recurring events of this hazard necessitate the development of accurate flood hazard maps to better inform disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims to integrate Machine Learning Models (MLM) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to predict flood hazard zones in the lower Niger River basin in Nigeria. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) machine learning models were employed to assess flood-prone areas based on twenty (20) influencing factors, categorized into topographic, hydrologic, environmental/anthropogenic, and climatic factors. Based on historical flood events from different sources for the period of 1998–2023 within the study area, data from 1164 flooded and non-flooded points were utilized to train and test the models. Following the evaluation by statistical metrics such as precision, recall, f1-score, overall accuracy, and Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC), XGBoost was found to have the best performance with an overall accuracy of 91% and ROC-AUC score of 0.89 compared to SVM and ANN with overall accuracy 88% and 85% respectively, and ROC-AUC scores 0.82 and 0.86 respectively. The flood hazard maps showed that areas near the river, particularly in the central and southern part of the basin, including the river confluence areas, are most prone to flooding which is likely to affect critical elements such as croplands, settlements, population centers, and infrastructures. This study provides a foundation to prioritize efforts and resources toward mitigating flood impacts in highly vulnerable areas.

多年来，由于气候变化、人口快速增长、城市化和城市规划不善，洪水对生命和财产造成了毁灭性的影响。这种灾害的反复发生要求制定准确的洪水灾害地图，以便更好地为备灾和减灾战略提供信息。因此，本研究旨在将机器学习模型（MLM）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术相结合，以预测尼日利亚尼日尔河下游流域的洪水危险区。采用支持向量机（SVM）、极端梯度增强（XGBoost）和人工神经网络（ANN）机器学习模型，基于地形、水文、环境/人为和气候等20个影响因素对洪水易发地区进行评估。基于研究区1998-2023年不同来源的历史洪水事件，利用1164个被淹点和非被淹点的数据对模型进行训练和检验。通过精密度、召回率、f1评分、总体准确率和接收者工作特征曲线下面积（ROC-AUC）等统计指标进行评价，发现与SVM和ANN的总体准确率分别为88%和85%，ROC-AUC得分分别为0.82和0.86相比，XGBoost的总体准确率为91%，ROC-AUC得分为0.89，表现最佳。洪水灾害图显示，靠近河流的地区，特别是流域中部和南部，包括河流汇合处，最容易发生洪水，这可能会影响农田、定居点、人口中心和基础设施等关键要素。该研究为在高度脆弱地区优先考虑减轻洪水影响的努力和资源提供了基础。

{"title":"Flood hazard zones prediction using machine-learning-based geospatial approach in lower Niger River basin, Nigeria","authors":"Adedoyin Benson Adeyemi, Akinola Adesuji Komolafe","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding has had devastating impacts on lives and properties over the years, caused as a result of climate change, rapid population growth, urbanization, and poor urban planning. The recurring events of this hazard necessitate the development of accurate flood hazard maps to better inform disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims to integrate Machine Learning Models (MLM) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to predict flood hazard zones in the lower Niger River basin in Nigeria. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) machine learning models were employed to assess flood-prone areas based on twenty (20) influencing factors, categorized into topographic, hydrologic, environmental/anthropogenic, and climatic factors. Based on historical flood events from different sources for the period of 1998–2023 within the study area, data from 1164 flooded and non-flooded points were utilized to train and test the models. Following the evaluation by statistical metrics such as precision, recall, f1-score, overall accuracy, and Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC), XGBoost was found to have the best performance with an overall accuracy of 91% and ROC-AUC score of 0.89 compared to SVM and ANN with overall accuracy 88% and 85% respectively, and ROC-AUC scores 0.82 and 0.86 respectively. The flood hazard maps showed that areas near the river, particularly in the central and southern part of the basin, including the river confluence areas, are most prone to flooding which is likely to affect critical elements such as croplands, settlements, population centers, and infrastructures. This study provides a foundation to prioritize efforts and resources toward mitigating flood impacts in highly vulnerable areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 399-412"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seismic capacity assessment of Shikhara style temple with and without traditional seismic enhancement 采用和不采用传统抗震加固的释宫式寺庙抗震能力评价

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.003

Suraj Malla , Mukil Alagirisamy , Purushotam Dangol

Brick masonry heritage structures have long been understood as highly vulnerable under earthquake excitation. Due to preservation constraints and considerations, modern materials are not allowed in seismic strengthening or post-earthquake reconstruction of heritage structures. Thus, traditional strengthening techniques are mandatory in heritage structures. The present paper reports the outcome of reconstruction initiative in a Shikhara style temple located in a world heritage site using timber element based seismic enhancement. Using numerical modeling, capacity assessment with and without timber elements is performed. For capacity assessment pushover analysis is performed for both as built and reconstructed models. The results show considerable increase in seismic capacity even with traditional improvement techniques, i.e. vertical timber elements. 18.05% increase in seismic capacity is found when vertical timber elements are used. Also, about 8% increase in the fundamental vibration frequency is observed after strengthening. The paper reports the details of geometrical features, reconstruction aspects, and numerical analysis results comprising modal analysis and capacity assessment.

长期以来，人们一直认为砖砌体遗产结构在地震作用下非常脆弱。由于保护的限制和考虑，不允许使用现代材料对遗产结构进行地震加固或震后重建。因此，传统的加固技术在遗产建筑中是强制性的。本文报道了采用基于木构元的地震增强技术对世界遗产地石窟式寺庙进行重建的结果。采用数值模拟的方法，对有无木材构件的承载力进行了评估。对于能力评估，将对已建模型和重建模型进行推覆分析。结果表明，即使采用传统的改进技术，即垂直木材构件，其抗震能力也有相当大的提高。当使用垂直木构件时，发现抗震能力提高了18.05%。强化后，基振频率提高了8%左右。本文详细介绍了结构的几何特征、重建方面以及模态分析和能力评估的数值分析结果。

{"title":"Seismic capacity assessment of Shikhara style temple with and without traditional seismic enhancement","authors":"Suraj Malla , Mukil Alagirisamy , Purushotam Dangol","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Brick masonry heritage structures have long been understood as highly vulnerable under earthquake excitation. Due to preservation constraints and considerations, modern materials are not allowed in seismic strengthening or post-earthquake reconstruction of heritage structures. Thus, traditional strengthening techniques are mandatory in heritage structures. The present paper reports the outcome of reconstruction initiative in a Shikhara style temple located in a world heritage site using timber element based seismic enhancement. Using numerical modeling, capacity assessment with and without timber elements is performed. For capacity assessment pushover analysis is performed for both as built and reconstructed models. The results show considerable increase in seismic capacity even with traditional improvement techniques, i.e. vertical timber elements. 18.05% increase in seismic capacity is found when vertical timber elements are used. Also, about 8% increase in the fundamental vibration frequency is observed after strengthening. The paper reports the details of geometrical features, reconstruction aspects, and numerical analysis results comprising modal analysis and capacity assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 299-305"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advances in earthquake and cascading disasters 地震和级联灾害的研究进展

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.010

Xiangli He , Zhaoning Chen , Qing Yang , Chong Xu

Earthquakes and cascading disasters have garnered increasing attention. The 2023 Annual Academic Conference of the Committee on Earthquake Hazard Chain, the Seismological Society of China, was successfully held in Beijing. The conference presentations and proceedings covered a wide range of topics beyond seismic disasters, including landslides, ground fissures, avalanches, freeze-thaw processes, land subsidence, dam-break floods, and multiple chain disasters, such as earthquake-landslide, rainfall-landslide-barrier lakes, earthquake-fires, and earthquake-tsunamis. The research directions addressed various aspects, such as disaster database development, formation mechanisms, spatial distribution, identification techniques, prediction methods, monitoring and early warning systems, hazard assessment, mitigation strategies, and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. In this paper, we systematically categorize and review the conference presentations, focusing on the research status and recent advancements in three major areas: seismic disasters, earthquake-induced cascading disasters, and non-seismically triggered landslides. It aims to provide scientific references for theoretical studies and technological applications in disaster prevention, mitigation, and emergency response. In the future, we should integrate cutting-edge multidisciplinary technologies and theories, leverage data-driven approaches to build a comprehensive database of earthquake disaster chains, enhance precursor monitoring to improve accuracy, advance mechanism research, and develop robust risk assessment systems.

地震和连锁灾害引起了越来越多的关注。中国地震学会地震灾害链委员会2023年学术年会在北京成功召开。会议报告和论文集涵盖了地震灾害之外的广泛主题，包括滑坡、地裂缝、雪崩、冻融过程、地面沉降、溃坝洪水和多连锁灾害，如地震-滑坡、降雨-滑坡-堰塞湖、地震-火灾和地震-海啸。研究方向涉及灾害数据库建设、形成机制、空间分布、识别技术、预测方法、监测预警系统、灾害评估、减灾战略、灾后恢复重建等多个方面。本文对会议报告进行了系统的分类和综述，重点介绍了地震灾害、地震引发的级联灾害和非地震引发的滑坡三个主要领域的研究现状和最新进展。旨在为防灾减灾和应急响应的理论研究和技术应用提供科学参考。未来，我们应整合多学科前沿技术和理论，利用数据驱动的方法，建立全面的地震灾害链数据库，加强前兆监测，提高准确性，推进机理研究，建立健全的风险评估体系。

{"title":"Advances in earthquake and cascading disasters","authors":"Xiangli He , Zhaoning Chen , Qing Yang , Chong Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earthquakes and cascading disasters have garnered increasing attention. The 2023 Annual Academic Conference of the Committee on Earthquake Hazard Chain, the Seismological Society of China, was successfully held in Beijing. The conference presentations and proceedings covered a wide range of topics beyond seismic disasters, including landslides, ground fissures, avalanches, freeze-thaw processes, land subsidence, dam-break floods, and multiple chain disasters, such as earthquake-landslide, rainfall-landslide-barrier lakes, earthquake-fires, and earthquake-tsunamis. The research directions addressed various aspects, such as disaster database development, formation mechanisms, spatial distribution, identification techniques, prediction methods, monitoring and early warning systems, hazard assessment, mitigation strategies, and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. In this paper, we systematically categorize and review the conference presentations, focusing on the research status and recent advancements in three major areas: seismic disasters, earthquake-induced cascading disasters, and non-seismically triggered landslides. It aims to provide scientific references for theoretical studies and technological applications in disaster prevention, mitigation, and emergency response. In the future, we should integrate cutting-edge multidisciplinary technologies and theories, leverage data-driven approaches to build a comprehensive database of earthquake disaster chains, enhance precursor monitoring to improve accuracy, advance mechanism research, and develop robust risk assessment systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 421-431"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Shirur landslide of July 2024 triggered by intense rainfall and unchecked development 2024年7月的施鲁尔滑坡是由强降雨和不受控制的开发引发的

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.005

Priyajit Kundu , Varun Menon , Sreevalsa Kolathayar , Pruthviraj U

On the morning of July 16, 2024, a significant landslide occurred in Shirur of Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka, India. The landslide claimed seven lives, leaving one person missing and severely disrupting the transport network by blocking National Highway 66. The displaced debris travelled 180m across the highway and into the Gangavali River, causing a significant splash and damaging structures on the opposite bank. The event, characterised by a rotational slip, was triggered by a combination of anthropogenic activities and intense rainfall. The construction of National Highway 66, which involved the removal of the slope's toe without adequate protection for the excavation, significantly destabilised the area. On 15th July, the rain gauge in Ankola recorded rainfall of 260 mm. The accumulated rainfall calculated for Shirur using Inverse Distance Weightage (IDW) for the storm period of 4 days was 198 mm, which increased the pore water pressure within the soil, weakening its shear strength and leading to slope failure. This incident underscores the need for further analysis and the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures, as the region remains at risk for future landslides. The Shirur landslide serves as a critical reminder of the dynamic nature of such disasters, particularly when human activities exacerbate natural hazards.

2024年7月16日上午，印度卡纳塔克邦北坎纳达地区Shirur发生重大滑坡。山体滑坡造成7人死亡，1人失踪，66号国道被堵塞，严重扰乱了交通网络。被冲走的碎片沿着高速公路行进了180米，进入了Gangavali河，造成了巨大的水花，并破坏了对岸的建筑。这一以旋转滑动为特征的事件是由人为活动和强降雨共同引发的。66号国道的建设涉及到拆除斜坡的脚趾，没有足够的保护挖掘，严重破坏了该地区的稳定。7月15日，安科拉的雨量计录得260毫米雨量。利用逆距离加权（IDW）计算的Shirur暴雨期4 d的累积降雨量为198 mm，增加了土体孔隙水压力，降低了土体抗剪强度，导致边坡破坏。这一事件强调有必要进一步分析和实施适当的缓解措施，因为该地区今后仍有发生山体滑坡的危险。Shirur滑坡是对此类灾害动态性质的重要提醒，特别是当人类活动加剧自然灾害时。

{"title":"The Shirur landslide of July 2024 triggered by intense rainfall and unchecked development","authors":"Priyajit Kundu , Varun Menon , Sreevalsa Kolathayar , Pruthviraj U","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On the morning of July 16, 2024, a significant landslide occurred in Shirur of Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka, India. The landslide claimed seven lives, leaving one person missing and severely disrupting the transport network by blocking National Highway 66. The displaced debris travelled 180m across the highway and into the Gangavali River, causing a significant splash and damaging structures on the opposite bank. The event, characterised by a rotational slip, was triggered by a combination of anthropogenic activities and intense rainfall. The construction of National Highway 66, which involved the removal of the slope's toe without adequate protection for the excavation, significantly destabilised the area. On 15th July, the rain gauge in Ankola recorded rainfall of 260 mm. The accumulated rainfall calculated for Shirur using Inverse Distance Weightage (IDW) for the storm period of 4 days was 198 mm, which increased the pore water pressure within the soil, weakening its shear strength and leading to slope failure. This incident underscores the need for further analysis and the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures, as the region remains at risk for future landslides. The Shirur landslide serves as a critical reminder of the dynamic nature of such disasters, particularly when human activities exacerbate natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 413-420"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Soil liquefaction potential assessment of ports in Odisha, India 印度奥里萨邦港口土壤液化潜力评价

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.001

Satyaprakash Mishra, Arjun Sil, Amit Kumar Das

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the liquefaction potential at three major port sites in Odisha, India, i.e., Dhamara, Paradeep, and Gopalpur, utilizing well-established methodologies. The evaluation was conducted under the framework of seismic hazard analysis, incorporating site-specific geotechnical data from Standard Penetration Test (SPT) boreholes and considering the maximum estimated earthquake scenarios. The seismic hazard analysis identified varying levels of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) across the port sites, with corresponding magnitudes of 7.4 and 6.5 for Dhamara, Paradeep, and Gopalpur, respectively. Liquefaction susceptibility was quantified using the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI), revealing significant variability across the sites. The Gopalpur port site exhibited a very low to low liquefaction severity, indicating minimal risk under the assessed seismic conditions. In contrast, the Dhamara and Paradeep ports demonstrated a higher susceptibility, with two out of four borehole locations at each site showing high liquefaction severity. This elevated risk is primarily attributed to the presence of saturated silty fine sands in the upper soil layers, which are particularly prone to liquefaction. The findings underscore the critical need for targeted mitigation measures, including ground improvement techniques, at the Dhamara and Paradeep sites to enhance infrastructure stability and safety. The study provides valuable insights into the seismic risks associated with these coastal regions and offers a robust framework for future seismic risk assessments. The outcomes of this research are instrumental in informing the design and implementation of resilient infrastructure in Odisha, thereby contributing to the region's overall seismic safety and disaster preparedness.

本研究利用成熟的方法，对印度奥里萨邦三个主要港口的液化潜力进行了全面评估，即达玛拉、帕拉迪普和戈帕尔普尔。评估是在地震危害分析的框架下进行的，结合了标准穿透试验（SPT）钻孔的具体场地岩土数据，并考虑了最大估计地震情景。地震危害分析确定了各港口站点的峰值地面加速度（PGA）水平不同，Dhamara， Paradeep和Gopalpur的相应震级分别为7.4和6.5。利用液化潜力指数（LPI）对液化易感性进行了量化，揭示了不同地点的显著差异。Gopalpur港口遗址显示出非常低到低的液化严重程度，表明在评估的地震条件下风险最小。相比之下，Dhamara和Paradeep港口表现出更高的敏感性，每个站点的四个钻孔位置中有两个显示出高液化严重程度。这种风险的增加主要归因于上层土壤中饱和粉质细砂的存在，这些细砂特别容易液化。研究结果强调，迫切需要在Dhamara和Paradeep场址采取有针对性的缓解措施，包括地面改善技术，以加强基础设施的稳定性和安全性。该研究为与这些沿海地区相关的地震风险提供了有价值的见解，并为未来的地震风险评估提供了一个强有力的框架。这项研究的结果有助于为奥里萨邦弹性基础设施的设计和实施提供信息，从而为该地区的整体地震安全和备灾做出贡献。

{"title":"Soil liquefaction potential assessment of ports in Odisha, India","authors":"Satyaprakash Mishra, Arjun Sil, Amit Kumar Das","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the liquefaction potential at three major port sites in Odisha, India, i.e., Dhamara, Paradeep, and Gopalpur, utilizing well-established methodologies. The evaluation was conducted under the framework of seismic hazard analysis, incorporating site-specific geotechnical data from Standard Penetration Test (SPT) boreholes and considering the maximum estimated earthquake scenarios. The seismic hazard analysis identified varying levels of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) across the port sites, with corresponding magnitudes of 7.4 and 6.5 for Dhamara, Paradeep, and Gopalpur, respectively. Liquefaction susceptibility was quantified using the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI), revealing significant variability across the sites. The Gopalpur port site exhibited a very low to low liquefaction severity, indicating minimal risk under the assessed seismic conditions. In contrast, the Dhamara and Paradeep ports demonstrated a higher susceptibility, with two out of four borehole locations at each site showing high liquefaction severity. This elevated risk is primarily attributed to the presence of saturated silty fine sands in the upper soil layers, which are particularly prone to liquefaction. The findings underscore the critical need for targeted mitigation measures, including ground improvement techniques, at the Dhamara and Paradeep sites to enhance infrastructure stability and safety. The study provides valuable insights into the seismic risks associated with these coastal regions and offers a robust framework for future seismic risk assessments. The outcomes of this research are instrumental in informing the design and implementation of resilient infrastructure in Odisha, thereby contributing to the region's overall seismic safety and disaster preparedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 287-298"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drought monitoring using the Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) in Ethiopia 利用气候灾害红外降水站（CHIRPS）在埃塞俄比亚进行干旱监测

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.002

Birhan Getachew Tikuye , Ram L. Ray , Busnur Manjunatha , Gebrekidan Worku Tefera , Sanjita Gurau

Ethiopia has experienced numerous natural disasters, with 110 documented events that include floods, disease outbreaks, droughts, landslides, pest infestations, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, mass movements, and wildfires over the past 58 years. Among these, drought occurrences are characterized by various factors such as duration, inter-arrival time, peak intensity, frequency, and severity. This study aims to monitor drought patterns in Ethiopia using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v2) satellite rainfall product. A 3 and 12-month timescale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on a gamma distribution was calculated to evaluate inter-arrival time, peak intensity, frequency, severity, and trends from 1981 to 2021. The performance of CHIRPS data was evaluated compared to gauging stations using the coefficient of determination (R²), root means square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) and showed a good agreement was reached. Results reveal an increasing trend in drought across all seasons, including winter, spring, summer, and autumn. However, statistical analysis via the Mann-Kendall trend test indicates that these upward trends are not statistically significant, with computed p-values (0.335, 0.419, 0.384, and 0.207) exceeding the significance level of α = 0.05. Temporal variations in drought indices reveal that certain years, such as 1984, 2010, and 2016, were among the driest periods in Ethiopia, both in terms of annual and seasonal drought severity. In contrast, 1998, 2007, and 2020 were identified as the wettest years and seasons in the country. The SPI-12 monthly index drought characterization shows an average of 4 drought events per year, with a maximum drought duration of 45 months, a maximum magnitude of 80, a frequency of 18%, and a severity of 2.6. The findings highlight the significance of advanced satellite data in accurately characterizing drought conditions, vital for strengthening the country's capacity to adapt to climate variability. By incorporating these insights into national planning and resource management frameworks, Ethiopia can enhance its ability to protect ecosystems, ensure food security, and maintain overall socio-economic stability in the face of the growing threat of drought.

埃塞俄比亚经历了许多自然灾害，在过去58年里，记录在案的自然灾害有110起，包括洪水、疾病爆发、干旱、山体滑坡、虫害、火山爆发、地震、群众迁徙和野火。其中，干旱的发生受持续时间、间隔时间、峰值强度、频率和严重程度等因素的影响。本研究旨在利用气候灾害组织红外降水站（CHIRPS-v2）卫星降雨产品监测埃塞俄比亚的干旱模式。计算了基于伽玛分布的3个月和12个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI），以评估1981 - 2021年的到达间隔时间、峰值强度、频率、严重程度和趋势。利用决定系数（R2）、均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）对CHIRPS数据的性能与测量站的性能进行了比较，结果表明两者具有很好的一致性。结果表明，在冬、春、夏、秋4个季节，干旱均呈增加趋势。然而，通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验的统计分析表明，这些上升趋势没有统计学意义，计算的p值（0.335,0.419,0.384和0.207）超过了α = 0.05的显著性水平。干旱指数的时间变化表明，在年度和季节性干旱严重程度方面，1984年、2010年和2016年等年份是埃塞俄比亚最干旱的时期。相比之下，1998年、2007年和2020年被确定为该国最潮湿的年份和季节。SPI-12月指数干旱特征显示，平均每年发生4次干旱事件，最大干旱持续时间为45个月，最大震级为80，频率为18%，严重程度为2.6。这些发现强调了先进卫星数据在准确描述干旱条件方面的重要性，这对于加强该国适应气候变化的能力至关重要。通过将这些见解纳入国家规划和资源管理框架，埃塞俄比亚可以增强其保护生态系统、确保粮食安全的能力，并在面临日益严重的干旱威胁时保持整体社会经济稳定。

{"title":"Drought monitoring using the Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) in Ethiopia","authors":"Birhan Getachew Tikuye , Ram L. Ray , Busnur Manjunatha , Gebrekidan Worku Tefera , Sanjita Gurau","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ethiopia has experienced numerous natural disasters, with 110 documented events that include floods, disease outbreaks, droughts, landslides, pest infestations, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, mass movements, and wildfires over the past 58 years. Among these, drought occurrences are characterized by various factors such as duration, inter-arrival time, peak intensity, frequency, and severity. This study aims to monitor drought patterns in Ethiopia using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v2) satellite rainfall product. A 3 and 12-month timescale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on a gamma distribution was calculated to evaluate inter-arrival time, peak intensity, frequency, severity, and trends from 1981 to 2021. The performance of CHIRPS data was evaluated compared to gauging stations using the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), root means square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) and showed a good agreement was reached. Results reveal an increasing trend in drought across all seasons, including winter, spring, summer, and autumn. However, statistical analysis via the Mann-Kendall trend test indicates that these upward trends are not statistically significant, with computed p-values (0.335, 0.419, 0.384, and 0.207) exceeding the significance level of α = 0.05. Temporal variations in drought indices reveal that certain years, such as 1984, 2010, and 2016, were among the driest periods in Ethiopia, both in terms of annual and seasonal drought severity. In contrast, 1998, 2007, and 2020 were identified as the wettest years and seasons in the country. The SPI-12 monthly index drought characterization shows an average of 4 drought events per year, with a maximum drought duration of 45 months, a maximum magnitude of 80, a frequency of 18%, and a severity of 2.6. The findings highlight the significance of advanced satellite data in accurately characterizing drought conditions, vital for strengthening the country's capacity to adapt to climate variability. By incorporating these insights into national planning and resource management frameworks, Ethiopia can enhance its ability to protect ecosystems, ensure food security, and maintain overall socio-economic stability in the face of the growing threat of drought.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 348-362"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change-induced shifts in landslide susceptibility in São Sebastião (southeastern Brazil) 气候变化引起的巴西东南部<s:1> o sebasti<e:1>滑坡易感性变化

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.005

Enner Alcântara , Cheila Flávia Baião , Yasmim Carvalho Guimarães , José Antonio Marengo , José Roberto Mantovani

Landslides are a pressing natural hazard, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather events, and their frequency is expected to rise due to climate change. This paper investigates landslide susceptibility in São Sebastião, a coastal region in southeastern Brazil, under various climate change scenarios. The study fills a critical gap in understanding how future precipitation changes driven by climate models could affect the area's susceptibility to landslides. Current assessments often overlook the combined effects of environmental variables and land-use dynamics under future climate conditions. To bridge this gap, this research integrates environmental variables, including Soil Moisture Index (SMI), slope degree, saturation, relief dissection, geomorphology, geology, and topographic position index (TPI), with land use and land cover (LULC) data. Scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 CMIP5 (Climate Models Intercomparison Programme Version 5) models were applied to model the impact of changing precipitation patterns on landslide susceptibility. Using geospatial data and a weighted sum model, susceptibility maps were developed for each climate scenario and validated with a landslide inventory and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The findings indicate a notable shift in landslide risk, with scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showing significant increases in moderately susceptible areas due to higher precipitation intensities. Frequency Ratio (FR) analysis revealed varying levels of landslide susceptibility across scenarios, with RCP2.6 showing lower probabilities for moderate landslides (FR: 0.007946) compared to higher ratings for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 (FR: 1.663156 for high landslides). Slope and TPI emerged as the most influential variables, while land-use types, particularly urban areas and deforestation zones, showed heightened vulnerability in future scenarios.

山体滑坡是一种紧迫的自然灾害，特别是在容易发生极端天气事件的地区，由于气候变化，其发生频率预计会上升。本文研究了巴西东南部沿海地区 o sebasti在不同气候变化情景下的滑坡易感性。这项研究填补了理解气候模型驱动的未来降水变化如何影响该地区对山体滑坡的易感性的一个关键空白。目前的评估往往忽略了未来气候条件下环境变量和土地利用动态的综合影响。为了弥补这一差距，本研究将土壤湿度指数（SMI）、坡度、饱和度、地形分解、地貌、地质和地形位置指数（TPI）等环境变量与土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）数据相结合。采用IPCC为RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5编制的情景，模拟降水模式变化对滑坡易感性的影响。利用地理空间数据和加权和模型，开发了每个气候情景的敏感性图，并通过滑坡清单和接收者工作特征（ROC）分析进行了验证。研究结果表明，滑坡风险发生了显著变化，RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景显示，由于降水强度较高，中等易感地区的滑坡风险显著增加。频率比（FR）分析显示，不同情景的滑坡易感性水平不同，与RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5较高的评级（高滑坡的FR: 1.663156）相比，RCP2.6显示中等滑坡的概率较低（FR: 0.007946）。坡度和TPI成为影响最大的变量，而土地利用类型，特别是城市地区和森林砍伐区，在未来情景中表现出更高的脆弱性。

{"title":"Climate change-induced shifts in landslide susceptibility in São Sebastião (southeastern Brazil)","authors":"Enner Alcântara , Cheila Flávia Baião , Yasmim Carvalho Guimarães , José Antonio Marengo , José Roberto Mantovani","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides are a pressing natural hazard, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather events, and their frequency is expected to rise due to climate change. This paper investigates landslide susceptibility in São Sebastião, a coastal region in southeastern Brazil, under various climate change scenarios. The study fills a critical gap in understanding how future precipitation changes driven by climate models could affect the area's susceptibility to landslides. Current assessments often overlook the combined effects of environmental variables and land-use dynamics under future climate conditions. To bridge this gap, this research integrates environmental variables, including Soil Moisture Index (SMI), slope degree, saturation, relief dissection, geomorphology, geology, and topographic position index (TPI), with land use and land cover (LULC) data. Scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 CMIP5 (Climate Models Intercomparison Programme Version 5) models were applied to model the impact of changing precipitation patterns on landslide susceptibility. Using geospatial data and a weighted sum model, susceptibility maps were developed for each climate scenario and validated with a landslide inventory and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The findings indicate a notable shift in landslide risk, with scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showing significant increases in moderately susceptible areas due to higher precipitation intensities. Frequency Ratio (FR) analysis revealed varying levels of landslide susceptibility across scenarios, with RCP2.6 showing lower probabilities for moderate landslides (FR: 0.007946) compared to higher ratings for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 (FR: 1.663156 for high landslides). Slope and TPI emerged as the most influential variables, while land-use types, particularly urban areas and deforestation zones, showed heightened vulnerability in future scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 321-334"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development and validation of a novel tool: The family resilience assessment scale for flood-affected families (FRAS-FAF) 一种新型工具的开发与验证：洪灾家庭恢复力评估量表（FRAS-FAF）

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.10.002

Haleema Sadia , Boonjai Srisatidnarakul , Jen-Jiuan Liaw

Family resilience is critical in coping with disasters such as floods, yet there is a lack of tools specifically designed to assess family resilience in flood-prone regions. This study aimed to develop and validate the Family Resilience Assessment Scale for Flood-Affected Families (FRAS-FAF), a culturally sensitive tool tailored to families impacted by recurrent flooding in Pakistan. A mixed-methods study design was employed in two phases. In Phase I, qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with heads of flood-affected families in the Nowshera district of Pakistan, revealing key themes related to family resilience. These insights informed the creation of 54 initial items for the FRAS-FAF. In Phase II, the psychometric properties of the tool were assessed using factor analysis with 400 participants, allocated for Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) 200 and the remaining 200 for Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final version of the scale retained 52 items across five factors: Family Culture, Family Structure, Family Spirituality, Family Resources, and Environment. EFA and CFA confirmed a strong five-factor structure, with model fit indices demonstrating adequate construct validity (χ2 = 1551/df = 936, CFI = .91, TLI = .89, SRMR = .075, RMSEA = .057). Internal consistency was high for all factors, with Cronbach's alpha values ranging from .85 to .96. FRAS-FAF is a reliable and valid tool for assessing family resilience in flood-affected families. It provides a framework for practitioners and policymakers to identify areas of strength and vulnerability, informing the development of targeted interventions aimed at enhancing family resilience in flood-prone regions. The tool's culturally sensitive design ensures its relevance for flood-affected families in Pakistan and offers the potential for adaptation in other disaster-prone areas.

家庭复原力对于应对洪水等灾害至关重要，但目前缺乏专门用于评估洪水易发地区家庭复原力的工具。本研究旨在开发和验证洪灾家庭恢复力评估量表（FRAS-FAF），这是一种为巴基斯坦遭受经常性洪灾影响的家庭量身定制的具有文化敏感性的工具。采用混合方法的研究设计分为两个阶段。在第一阶段，通过对巴基斯坦瑙谢拉地区受洪灾影响家庭的户主进行深入访谈，收集了定性数据，揭示了与家庭复原力相关的关键主题。这些见解为FRAS-FAF的54个初始项目的创建提供了信息。在第二阶段，400名参与者使用因子分析来评估该工具的心理测量特性，其中200人用于探索性因子分析（EFA），其余200人用于验证性因子分析（CFA）。量表的最终版本保留了52个项目，涉及五个因素：家庭文化、家庭结构、家庭精神、家庭资源和环境。EFA和CFA证实了强的五因素结构，模型拟合指标显示足够的结构效度(χ2 = 1551/df = 936, CFI =。[翻译]：89、SRMR =。075, rmsea = .057)。所有因子的内部一致性都很高，Cronbach's alpha值在0.85 ~ 0.96之间。FRAS-FAF是评估受灾家庭的家庭复原力的可靠和有效的工具。它为从业者和政策制定者提供了一个框架，以确定优势和脆弱性领域，为制定旨在增强洪水易发地区家庭抵御能力的有针对性的干预措施提供信息。该工具的文化敏感性设计确保了它与巴基斯坦受洪灾影响的家庭的相关性，并为其他灾害易发地区提供了适应的潜力。

{"title":"Development and validation of a novel tool: The family resilience assessment scale for flood-affected families (FRAS-FAF)","authors":"Haleema Sadia , Boonjai Srisatidnarakul , Jen-Jiuan Liaw","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Family resilience is critical in coping with disasters such as floods, yet there is a lack of tools specifically designed to assess family resilience in flood-prone regions. This study aimed to develop and validate the Family Resilience Assessment Scale for Flood-Affected Families (FRAS-FAF), a culturally sensitive tool tailored to families impacted by recurrent flooding in Pakistan. A mixed-methods study design was employed in two phases. In Phase I, qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with heads of flood-affected families in the Nowshera district of Pakistan, revealing key themes related to family resilience. These insights informed the creation of 54 initial items for the FRAS-FAF. In Phase II, the psychometric properties of the tool were assessed using factor analysis with 400 participants, allocated for Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) 200 and the remaining 200 for Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final version of the scale retained 52 items across five factors: Family Culture, Family Structure, Family Spirituality, Family Resources, and Environment. EFA and CFA confirmed a strong five-factor structure, with model fit indices demonstrating adequate construct validity (χ2 = 1551/df = 936, CFI = .91, TLI = .89, SRMR = .075, RMSEA = .057). Internal consistency was high for all factors, with Cronbach's alpha values ranging from .85 to .96. FRAS-FAF is a reliable and valid tool for assessing family resilience in flood-affected families. It provides a framework for practitioners and policymakers to identify areas of strength and vulnerability, informing the development of targeted interventions aimed at enhancing family resilience in flood-prone regions. The tool's culturally sensitive design ensures its relevance for flood-affected families in Pakistan and offers the potential for adaptation in other disaster-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 229-246"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Specific impacts of climate change on the hydrological patterns and land use dynamics in the Arghandab River Basin, Kandahar, Afghanistan 气候变化对阿富汗坎大哈Arghandab河流域水文模式和土地利用动态的具体影响

Natural Hazards Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.007

Bashir Ahmad Karimi , Mohammad Aslam Haziq , Athiqullah Hayat

Changes in rainfall patterns and warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions have significant impact on the global hydrological cycle. The deteriorating physical properties of river basins, melting glaciers, drought conditions, food shortages, extreme weather events, and alterations in groundwater recharge are all consequences of these changes. Climate change and global warming have placed a greater strain on the climatic factors affecting the Arghandab River Basin. Sustainable development in the basin's depends on assessment of the long-term outcomes of climate change on several characteristics of the basin. The primary goal is to understand the average general hydrology of the basin. Furthermore, based on that, assess the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation Next, evaluate the work done to simulate and model surface runoff and sediment transport in order to understand the impacts of climate change on these processes, as well as the temporal variations and alterations in land use and land cover due to climate change. Data were collected from regional and international data sets. The soil and water assessment tool (Swat, 2012) model was applied to assess the average general hydrology and sediment transport of the basin, and statistics were used to estimate the amount of change. The research found that this basin is highly sensitive to climate change. The results indicate that from 1981 to 2021, the historic temperature increased by 1.41 °C, while average yearly precipitation and runoff decreased by 7.72%. Conversely, evapotranspiration rose by 7.54%. Additionally, shrubland expanded by 2.28%, grassland increased by 12.9%, and barren areas decreased by 15.23%. Such alterations directly affect water availability for agriculture and other essential uses, exacerbating vulnerability to natural hazards. Future research should focus on developing targeted adaptation strategies for the Arghandab River Basin, emphasizing the need for integrated water management practices and innovative groundwater recharge techniques to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

温室气体排放导致的降雨模式变化和气温变暖对全球水文循环产生重大影响。河流流域物理性质的恶化、冰川融化、干旱、粮食短缺、极端天气事件以及地下水补给的改变都是这些变化的后果。气候变化和全球变暖给影响阿甘达布河流域的气候因素带来了更大的压力。流域的可持续发展取决于对气候变化对流域若干特征的长期影响的评估。主要目标是了解该盆地的一般水文情况。在此基础上，评估气候变化对温度和降水的影响。其次，评估地表径流和泥沙输运的模拟和模型工作，以了解气候变化对这些过程的影响，以及气候变化导致的土地利用和土地覆盖的时间变化和变化。数据是从区域和国际数据集中收集的。采用水土评估工具（Swat, 2012）模型对流域平均一般水文输沙量进行评估，并采用统计学方法估算变化量。研究发现，这个盆地对气候变化非常敏感。结果表明：1981 - 2021年，历史气温升高1.41°C，年平均降水量和径流量减少7.72%；反之，蒸散量增加7.54%。灌木林面积增加2.28%，草地面积增加12.9%，荒地面积减少15.23%。这种变化直接影响到农业用水和其他基本用途，加剧了对自然灾害的脆弱性。未来的研究应侧重于为Arghandab河流域制定有针对性的适应战略，强调需要综合水资源管理实践和创新的地下水补给技术来减轻气候变化的影响。

{"title":"Specific impacts of climate change on the hydrological patterns and land use dynamics in the Arghandab River Basin, Kandahar, Afghanistan","authors":"Bashir Ahmad Karimi , Mohammad Aslam Haziq , Athiqullah Hayat","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2024.12.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Changes in rainfall patterns and warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions have significant impact on the global hydrological cycle. The deteriorating physical properties of river basins, melting glaciers, drought conditions, food shortages, extreme weather events, and alterations in groundwater recharge are all consequences of these changes. Climate change and global warming have placed a greater strain on the climatic factors affecting the Arghandab River Basin. Sustainable development in the basin's depends on assessment of the long-term outcomes of climate change on several characteristics of the basin. The primary goal is to understand the average general hydrology of the basin. Furthermore, based on that, assess the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation Next, evaluate the work done to simulate and model surface runoff and sediment transport in order to understand the impacts of climate change on these processes, as well as the temporal variations and alterations in land use and land cover due to climate change. Data were collected from regional and international data sets. The soil and water assessment tool (Swat, 2012) model was applied to assess the average general hydrology and sediment transport of the basin, and statistics were used to estimate the amount of change. The research found that this basin is highly sensitive to climate change. The results indicate that from 1981 to 2021, the historic temperature increased by 1.41 °C, while average yearly precipitation and runoff decreased by 7.72%. Conversely, evapotranspiration rose by 7.54%. Additionally, shrubland expanded by 2.28%, grassland increased by 12.9%, and barren areas decreased by 15.23%. Such alterations directly affect water availability for agriculture and other essential uses, exacerbating vulnerability to natural hazards. Future research should focus on developing targeted adaptation strategies for the Arghandab River Basin, emphasizing the need for integrated water management practices and innovative groundwater recharge techniques to mitigate the impacts of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 380-390"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0