Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition最新文献

Striving to mitigate climate change, the European Union has adopted net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as a target for 2050. In this paper, European chemical industry roadmaps from the past six years are assessed and compared to uncover how the industry envisions its role in the transition to net-zero emissions. The roadmaps are assessed in terms of ambition level, technology and feedstock strategies, investment needs and costs, agency and dependency on other actors, as well as timeline and concretion. Although net-zero pathways are often drawn out in the roadmaps, some also choose to emphasize and argue for less ambitious pathways with emission reductions of only 40–60 %. The roadmaps vary widely in terms of the importance they assign to mechanical and chemical recycling, switching to biogenic carbon and carbon dioxide as feedstock, electrification and hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. A commonality though, is that low-tech or near-term mitigation pathways such as demand reduction, reuse or material efficiency are seldom included. High investment needs are generally highlighted, as well as the need for policy to create enabling conditions, whereas the agency and responsibility of the chemical industry itself is downplayed. Our analysis highlights that the chemical industry does not yet have a strong and shared vision for pathways to net-zero emissions. We conclude that such a future vision would benefit from taking a whole value chain approach including demand-side options and consideration of scope 3 emissions.

Indonesia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with an electricity system reliant on fossil fuels and renewable electricity contributing a small portion of their growing demand. In this study, an optimization approach is utilized to analyze different policy-driven pathways for Indonesia's long-term electricity planning by formulating different scenarios based on current policy discussions and changes in the power sector. Through an optimization model, several scenarios incorporating multiple changes such as cost reductions of technologies, halting coal capacity beyond the current pipeline, and carbon taxation schemes are built. The findings show the magnitude of transformation needed to achieve net zero goals and consolidate the discussion around halting coal capacity addition beyond currently planned in terms of technical, environmental, and economic aspects. These findings will be useful to electricity sector policymakers and planners as Indonesia continues along its sustainable economic development pathway.

As power systems integrate increasing quantities of wind, solar and energy storage resources, it is important to revisit power system capacity expansion modeling methods and assumptions that have been utilized in thermal-dominated systems. We conduct a series of case study analyses using a simplified representation of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system to demonstrate how least-cost capacity expansion outcomes are impacted by changes in model resolution across two temporal dimensions: 1) the number of considered representative periods, and 2) the system dispatch interval. First, we find that the least-cost generation portfolio can differ significantly for small changes in the number of representative days, but largely converges to the 365-day result once 104 representative days are considered. Furthermore, systems with wind, solar and storage resources were more sensitive to changes in the number of representative days than a thermal-dominated system. Second, we find that considering five-minute dispatch resolution consistently results in least-cost generation portfolios with less solar capacity and more energy storage capacity than corresponding scenarios with hourly dispatch intervals. This suggests that hourly dispatch representation fails to capture the intra-hour volatility of solar generation, and therefore also overlooks opportunities for storage resources to provide system value by balancing this volatility. Collectively these results indicate that capacity expansion modelers should revisit conventional approaches to temporal representation when conducting analyses of deeply decarbonized power systems to ensure that such analyses are robust and actionable. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze capacity expansion outcomes with five-minute dispatch resolution in this manner.

This paper investigates the obstacles to Distributive Generation (DG) uptake in Pakistan, finding inertia and resistance from incumbent actors as key and understanding this as a problem of misaligned institutional logics. Focusing particularly on bank finance and drawing lightly on a neo-institutional framework of types of logic and mechanism – we highlight misalignment of regulative, cognitive, and normative aspects of the institutionalized system, driven in particular by difficulties in acquiring finance, and lack of sufficient incentives for the distribution companies to facilitate DG. This in turn leads to: (i) the continuance of user preferences for fossil-fuel back-up energy systems that compensate for daily power outages; (ii) under-facilitation of DG by the incumbent distribution companies; (iii) restricted lending behavior; (iv) and, overall, limited planning, coordination, and collaboration between the actors in the system. While focused on Pakistan, the attributes that the country shares with several others in the region allow for some generalization of the findings.

Cogeneration has higher efficiency than separate heat and power generation. Since both are generated in a single process, it is necessary to allocate the emissions to by-products for comparing their environmental performance. Numerous methods exist resulting in very different allocations. There is no consensus regarding the method choice. The main objective of this article is the development and implementation of an evaluation scheme allowing the choice of an appropriate method for specific applications. This scheme consists of nine criteria in the categories “Applicability”, “Environmental relevance”, and “Systematic approach” allowing a rating. The Finnish method performs best for a standard use case resulting in emission factors of 322 g CO₂ / kWh_el and 192 g CO₂ / kWh_th. Both are associated with less emissions per unit then the electricity and district heating mix of Germany in 2020 that were 375 g CO₂ / kWh_el and 270 g CO₂ / kWh_th. Therefore, cogeneration electricity and heat could contribute to climate protection in the short- to mid-term. The implementation of two sensitivity analyses shows that the location and country-specific emission factors can have a great influence on the results and the contribution to climate protection. Depending on use case and individual importance of certain criteria the Energy, the Exergy or the Greenhouse Gas method can be preferable. Each scored with one point less than the Finnish method. In contrast to existing publications, this study supports decision-makers in transparently selecting an appropriate allocation method when assessing the products of cogeneration by considering different criteria.

While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, the European Union activates all available fossil-fuel levers and Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action. This study assesses the trajectory of the Greek electricity mix and its reliance on natural gas under the current policy framework on the one hand, and an ambitious scenario aiming for complete decarbonisation by 2035 on the other. We model these scenarios using an energy system modelling framework, comprising LEAP and OSeMOSYS model implementations for Greece, and use a stakeholder-informed fuzzy cognitive mapping exercise to uncover transition uncertainties. While power generation from natural gas is projected to increase by almost 50% until 2030 under existing policies, the proposed decarbonisation scenario has the potential to achieve complete independence from Russian gas by 2026 while also leading to a cleaner and considerably cheaper power sector. This ‘higher climate ambition’ scenario is found feasible and more robust in case high fossil fuel prices persist post-2022, even if bottlenecks stressed by stakeholders such as community acceptance or technological constraints emerge and potentially constrain the expansion of certain renewable energy technologies. Apart from the added value of stakeholder input in modelling science, as reflected in the impact of barriers Greek stakeholders critically highlighted, our results emphasise that a diversified energy-supply mix alongside bold energy efficiency strategies are key to rapid and feasible decarbonisation in the country.

To better support informed decision-making around renewable heating strategies on local scale, a new methodology was developed for simulating integrated heating scenarios. This paper proposes, describes and demonstrates the modeling methodology with a focus on a variety of KPIs, allowing a more inclusive evaluation of technical options, systems and scenarios. Key KPIs include system costs, CO₂ emissions, mitigation costs and end-user costs and investments. Key function of the model is an in-depth cost analysis by a breakdown of costs among types of measures (home equipment, insulation, local equipment and infrastructure), cost components (investments, O&M, taxes, subsidies) and stakeholders (system, government, owner-occupiers, renters, real estate owners, grid operators and local entrepreneurs). The methodology was applied to a fictive Dutch neighbourhood according to the urban and building typology provided in the paper. The results of six scenarios show large variety in costs among scenarios with significantly higher costs than the reference scenario in all scenarios, with scenario ‘hybrid’ and ‘efficiency’ presenting the best potential of becoming cost-competitive with the reference scenario in 2030. The method is suitable for evaluating a wide diversity of settings and contexts.

Consumption of solid fuels (such as biomass, dung, and coal) causes household air pollution, which reportedly is responsible for over 3.5 million premature deaths worldwide. Therefore, over the last couple of years, national governments, and organization as well as international organizations are promoting energy transition from these solid fuels to clean and modern fuels in households. This paper aims to provide comprehensive review of the conceptualization and the drivers of the household energy transition to clean fuels. A systematic literature review approach was identified and used to systematically identify, select, evaluate, and synthesize the relevant published and gray literature appropriate to answer the research question of the study. It is found that the majority (78.4%) of studies conceptualized household energy transition as a switch/shift from one energy fuel to another, while few studies conceptualized energy transition as a change in energy conversion technologies (11.8%) and change in energy use patterns (9.8%). Furthermore, this study found that majority of the studies identified socioeconomic and market/economic factors as key determinants of household energy transition with few studies reported environmental factors, behavioral and government/structural factors as drivers for household energy transition.

Climate change mitigation entails different meanings for developed and developing countries. As a major emitting, high-income, developing economy that is largely dependant on hydrocarbons, Russia currently sits in the middle of the two groups, needing not only to drastically reduce emissions but also to ensure necessary economic growth to finance decarbonisation. This study explores two mitigation scenarios, one reflecting a cautious and the other a more ambitious decarbonisation pathway for Russia. These scenarios are co-created with a group of 135 national stakeholders, who inform the underlying assumptions based on their perceptions, expectations, and reservations: the more conservative scenario reflects the average of all input, while the ambitious scenario represents the optimistic end of the stakeholder input range. The two scenarios are modelled in CONTO, an input-output system of interconnected macro-structural calculations at the national level, to analyse the interplay between Russia's economy and decarbonisation progress, shedding light on the implications of mitigation for socioeconomic development. We find that, even for a country as dependant on hydrocarbons and under the most ambitious pathway that is still within experts’ realistic reach, Russia can achieve drastic reduction in absolute emissions and reach net-zero closely after 2050, while also achieving positive economic development in the long run. We highlight the need to prioritise a diverse set of mitigation options currently available and relevant to the Russian context, including energy efficiency and intensity improvements, electrification, and nuclear power, as well as to exploit the large potential lying within the Russian ecosystem's carbon sinks.

The Inflation Reduction Act sets the stage for substantial greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States. However, analyses show that on its own, the IRA is insufficient to meet the nation's stated climate goals. We use an energy system optimization model to understand how the U.S. can build on the IRA to meet climate goals. We model two carbon taxes and a suite of efficiency, fuel, and technology standards, including a clean electricity standard (CES), electrification standards for commercial and residential buildings, a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standard, and a clean fuel standard for industry. We compare these three policy scenarios to the U.S.’s stated climate goals (Nationally Determined Contribution). The two carbon taxes and the suite of standards achieve the GHG emissions goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, but no scenario reaches net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Notably, we find that the average GHG abatement cost under the modeled standards is comparable to a carbon tax set at ∼$200/ton, and both policies achieve similar emissions reductions. Temoa's cost-minimization structure results in the carbon tax always reducing emissions more cheaply than a set of standards; but the similarity in cost emphasizes the near-optimal second-best nature of well-designed standards.” The marginal cost of GHG emissions reduction in each scenario is less than 2% of total system costs. While the modeling results indicate that meeting climate targets may still be possible, they demonstrate that doing so will require rapid and sustained deployment of zero-emission technologies across the energy system.