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A prediction of future flows of ephemeral rivers by using stochastic modeling (AR autoregressive modeling) 基于随机模型(AR自回归模型)的短期河流未来流量预测
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.05.003
Mir Mohammad Ali Malakoutian , Seyedeh Yasaman Samaei , Mitra Khaksar , Yas Malakoutian

There are different flow prediction models such as Autoregressive models, Autoregressive moving average models, first-order autoregressive-moving average models, etc. The main purposes of this dissertation were to fit a model to represent a river flow data of 10 rivers in the Northern part of Cyprus. The modeling was built on the estimate of parameters, modeling the residuals, generating synthetic river flows, and checking for the goodness of fit to the monitored data. Finally, the findings were used to evaluate the synthetic series for future flow predictions. The study on available data demonstrated that the (AR) model was an efficient and reliable technique in which, the model identification technique was supplemented by the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) in order to decide the type and the order of the model. The Box-Pierce Porte Manteau test is used to check the dependency of residuals. it is recommended to generate stochastic modeling for the downstream drainage areas of the 10 rivers in which the surface geology totally changes and surface flow turns to be a subsurface flow due to the gravel and pebbles distributed all around the riverbeds.

流量预测模型有自回归模型、自回归移动平均模型、一阶自回归移动平均模型等。本文的主要目的是拟合一个模型来表示塞浦路斯北部10条河流的流量数据。建模是建立在参数估计、残差建模、生成合成河流流量和检验与监测数据的拟合优度的基础上的。最后,将这些发现用于评估未来流量预测的综合序列。通过对已有数据的研究,证明了(AR)模型是一种高效、可靠的方法,该方法在模型识别技术的基础上辅以赤池信息准则(AIC)来确定模型的类型和顺序。Box-Pierce Porte Manteau检验用于检验残差的相关性。建议对10条河流的下游流域进行随机建模,在这些流域,由于河床周围分布着砾石和卵石,地表地质完全改变,地表流变成了地下流。
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引用次数: 6
3D printing – A review of processes, materials and applications in industry 4.0 3D打印——工业4.0中的工艺、材料和应用综述
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2021.09.004
Anketa Jandyal, Ikshita Chaturvedi, Ishika Wazir, Ankush Raina PhD, Mir Irfan Ul Haq PhD
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引用次数: 147
Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Turkish civil aviation industry 新冠肺炎疫情对土耳其民航业的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2021.11.002
Muhammet Deveci , Muharrem Enis Çiftçi , İbrahim Zeki Akyurt , Ernesto D.R. Santibanez Gonzalez

COVID-19 pandemic, which has announced to the world from Wuhan in China, has naturally formed economic shocks in air transport. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis, governments closed international borders and almost all airlines have drastically reduced their available seat capacity. The aim of this study is to examine the early and late responses such as financial decisions, managing and recovering flights, human resources management and hygiene measures taken by Turkish air carriers in a crisis environment during pandemics and economic shocks. Turkish Civil Aviation Industry (TCAI) is analyzed pre and during COVID-19 in terms of market overview. Finally, we also present current and future directions, and provide examples of the reactions from Turkish and global carriers. The results show that TCAI is heavily impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the market is re-shaping with fewer carriers in the recovery phase. Airline staff faced significant salary decreases in TCAI due to revenue decrease of the airlines. Cargo-only flights are increased crucially in the TCAI, although passenger figures are dropped.

从中国武汉向世界宣布的新冠肺炎疫情,自然形成了航空运输的经济冲击。由于新冠肺炎危机,各国政府关闭了国际边境,几乎所有航空公司都大幅减少了可用座位容量。本研究的目的是审查土耳其航空公司在大流行病和经济冲击期间的危机环境中采取的早期和后期应对措施,如财务决策、管理和恢复航班、人力资源管理和卫生措施。从市场概况方面分析了2019冠状病毒病之前和期间的土耳其民航业(TCAI)。最后,我们还提出了当前和未来的方向,并提供了来自土耳其和全球航空公司的反应的例子。结果表明,TCAI受新冠肺炎大流行影响严重,市场正在重塑,处于恢复阶段的携带者数量减少。由于航空公司的收入减少,航空公司员工在TCAI中面临显著的工资下降。货运航班的增加对TCAI至关重要,尽管乘客数量有所下降。
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引用次数: 20
Design of a Distribution Network in a Multi-product, Multi-period Green Supply Chain System Under Demand Uncertainty 需求不确定性下多产品、多周期绿色供应链系统配电网设计
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.01.005
Azam Boskabadi , Mirpouya Mirmozaffari , Reza Yazdani , Ali Farahani

This paper proposes a novel fuzzy mathematical model for a distribution network design problem in a multi-product, multi-period, multi-echelon, multi-plant, multi-retailer, multi-mode of transportation green supply chain system. The three purposes of the model are to minimise total network cost, maximise net profit per capita for each human resource, and diminish CO2 emission throughout the network. P-hub median location with multiple allocations is used for locating the distribution centres. One scenario is designed for fuzzy customer demands with a trapezoidal membership function. Furthermore, the model determines the design of the network (selecting the optimum numbers, locations of plants, and distribution centres to open), finding the best strategy for material transportation through the network with the availability of different transportation modes, the capacities level of the facilities (plants or distribution centres (DCs)), and the number of outsourced products. Finally, all uncertain customer demands for all product types can be satisfied based on the methods mentioned above. This multi-objective mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model is solved by NSGA-II, MOPSO and a hybrid meta-heuristic algorithm. The results show that NSGA-II is the exclusive algorithm that obtains the best result according to the evaluation criteria.

针对多产品、多周期、多梯次、多工厂、多零售商、多运输方式的绿色供应链系统中的配送网络设计问题,提出了一种新的模糊数学模型。该模型的三个目的是最小化总网络成本,最大化每个人力资源的人均净利润,以及减少整个网络的二氧化碳排放。使用多重分配的P-hub中位数定位来定位配送中心。针对模糊客户需求,设计了一种梯形隶属函数方案。此外,该模型确定了网络的设计(选择最优的数量、工厂的位置和要开放的配送中心),通过不同运输模式的可用性、设施(工厂或配送中心(dc))的能力水平和外包产品的数量,找到通过网络进行物资运输的最佳策略。最后,基于上述方法可以满足所有产品类型的所有不确定客户需求。采用NSGA-II、MOPSO和混合元启发式算法求解该多目标混合整数非线性数学模型。结果表明,根据评价标准,NSGA-II是获得最佳结果的唯一算法。
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引用次数: 24
Contextual relationships among drivers and barriers to circular economy: An integrated ISM and DEMATEL approach 循环经济的驱动因素和障碍之间的语境关系:ISM和DEMATEL的综合方法
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2021.09.003
Shrinath Manoharan , Venkata Sai Kumar Pulimi , Golam Kabir , Syed Mithun Ali

Recently, Circular Economy (CE) is implemented by the manufacturing industries since it helps the management to reduce waste and increase productivity. Industries are adopting CE because it helps them gain economic, environmental, and social benefits. This study is primarily aimed at the identification and ranking of the drivers and barriers for the implementation of CE in the automobile industry. For this, an integrated approach of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) is utilized. The results of this study indicate that the share/ benefit and reduction of cost are the most critical drivers while unaware/limited knowledge and cost and financial constraint are the major barriers for the implementation of CE in the automobile industry. This integrated approach will help the decision makers and policy makers to take immediate and effective actions, and focus on the productivity of the company.

最近,循环经济(CE)被制造业实施,因为它有助于管理层减少浪费和提高生产力。各行各业正在采用CE,因为它有助于它们获得经济、环境和社会效益。本研究的主要目的是识别和排名的驱动因素和障碍的实施CE在汽车行业。为此,采用了解释结构建模(ISM)和决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)相结合的方法。本研究的结果表明,共享/效益和降低成本是最关键的驱动因素,而不知道/有限的知识和成本和财务约束是汽车行业实施节能减排的主要障碍。这种综合方法将有助于决策者和政策制定者采取即时有效的行动,并关注公司的生产力。
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引用次数: 28
Nature inspired evolutionary algorithm integrated performance assessment of floating solar photovoltaic module for low-carbon clean energy generation 基于自然启发进化算法的浮式太阳能光伏组件低碳清洁发电综合性能评估
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2021.10.002
Anik Goswami, Pradip Kumar Sadhu

Development and deployment of FSPV systems are still in the nascent stages hence long-term performance, control and feasibility study of FSPV systems are not well addressed. Precise and robust estimation of FSPV panel parameters will play an important role in determining the actual performance, carbon savings and long-term feasibility studies of FSPV systems. Here, hybrid stochastic firefly algorithm (HSFA) is used for parameter estimation and optimization. The hybrid algorithm is used to find out the parameters of single diode model, double diode model and FSPV module. An experiment is also performed using FSPV modules under varying irradiance conditions. The accuracy of model is evaluated by comparing the simulated results with the experimental results and computing the relative error and root mean square error (RMSE). The parameters extracted using the proposed method has a very low RMSE value of 9.83002E-04. Assessment of the experimental and estimated results show that the relative error for measured electricity on a sunny day is 0.57% while for an overcast day it is 0.89%. For partial shading condition, the relative error and RMSE was 0.79% and 6.5%, respectively. The results which are in well agreement with the experimental values demonstrate the superior performance of the model in determining the FSPV parameters. Proper estimation of the FSPV parameters will help researchers, scientists, engineers and all actors associated with solar PV systems in making sound judgements towards the deployment of FSPV systems and help the society in developing a sustainable ecosystem towards implementation of industry 4.0 by adapting to low-carbon power generation methods.

FSPV系统的开发和部署仍处于初级阶段,因此FSPV系统的长期性能、控制和可行性研究尚未得到很好的解决。精确、稳健的FSPV面板参数估计对于确定FSPV系统的实际性能、碳减排和长期可行性研究具有重要作用。本文采用混合随机萤火虫算法(HSFA)进行参数估计和优化。采用混合算法求解了单二极管模型、双二极管模型和FSPV模块的参数。用FSPV模块在不同辐照度条件下进行了实验。通过将模拟结果与实验结果进行比较,计算相对误差和均方根误差(RMSE),对模型的精度进行了评价。采用该方法提取的参数RMSE值非常低,为9.83002E-04。对实验结果和估计结果的评估表明,晴天测电量的相对误差为0.57%,阴天测电量的相对误差为0.89%。在部分遮阳条件下,相对误差为0.79%,均方根误差为6.5%。计算结果与实验值吻合较好,表明该模型在确定FSPV参数方面具有较好的性能。正确估计FSPV参数将有助于研究人员、科学家、工程师和与太阳能光伏系统相关的所有参与者对FSPV系统的部署做出合理的判断,并通过适应低碳发电方法,帮助社会发展可持续的生态系统,以实现工业4.0。
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引用次数: 6
The role of additive manufacturing in industry 4.0: An exploration of different business models 增材制造在工业4.0中的作用:不同商业模式的探索
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.07.001
Badr Elhazmiri , Nida Naveed , Muhammad Naveed Anwar , Mir Irfan Ul Haq

Purpose

The rising interest in the integration of digital advanced manufacturing and production systems in the Industry 4.0 context is one of the main factors in the introduction of Additive Manufacturing (AM). The novel technology might change the way firms operate, and the way they interact with consumers, opening new horizons for an improved profit margin and more sustainable business models. The research presented a comprehensive review on the potent role of AM in adhering to customers’ complicated and unique needs using various technologies and techniques, as it discussed the role of AM in introducing new business models that increase the business competitiveness and profitability through an optimisation of production processes. In addition, AM is grasping with innovative solutions varying from waste reduction to shorter supply chains to longer products lifecycle, incentivising firms to adopt it for the economies realised on materials, energy, and costs. Notwithstanding, AM implementation is still in its infancy and faces technical challenges of capability, IT integration, and outcomes.

Design/Methodology/approach

This research is based on a quantitative approach that was administered online by means of a highly structured online survey, which aim was to collect primary data that fills the gaps of the research hypotheses due to the lacking nature of research papers exploring them. Therefore, the literature review was a paramount phase in acquiring empirical knowledge about the problem background and concept boundaries that shaped the topic's core objectives and research questions from the lacking nature of explored areas.

Findings

This research investigated the role of AM in industry 4.0 by exploring its impact and intersection with AM firms’ business models while exposing the limitations and challenges to its adoption within industrial contexts. The study highlighted that the AM positive impacts on companies’ business models on the value chain and turnover. This study also revealed the eco-design prospect of AM that will be helpful for different firms to rethink their business models shaping them to be more cost-efficient.

Originality

This research gave insight on AM technology through a quantitative survey that mainly aimed to classify knowledge and to investigate the role of AM as a lever in improving firms’ value chains through an exploration of possible intersections with business models and impacts of implementation, possible sustainability scenarios and challenges it may face within Industry 4.0 context.

在工业4.0背景下,对数字先进制造和生产系统集成的兴趣日益浓厚,这是引入增材制造(AM)的主要因素之一。这项新技术可能会改变公司的运作方式,以及它们与消费者互动的方式,为提高利润率和更可持续的商业模式开辟新的视野。该研究全面回顾了增材制造在使用各种技术和技术坚持客户复杂和独特需求方面的强大作用,因为它讨论了增材制造在引入新的商业模式方面的作用,通过优化生产流程来提高业务竞争力和盈利能力。此外,AM正在抓住创新的解决方案,从减少废物到缩短供应链到延长产品生命周期,激励公司采用它来实现材料,能源和成本上的经济。尽管如此,AM的实施仍处于起步阶段,面临着能力、IT集成和结果的技术挑战。设计/方法/方法本研究基于定量方法,通过高度结构化的在线调查在线管理,其目的是收集原始数据,填补由于缺乏研究论文的性质而导致的研究假设的空白。因此,文献综述是获取关于问题背景和概念边界的经验知识的重要阶段,这些知识塑造了主题的核心目标和研究问题,从探索领域的缺乏性质出发。本研究通过探索增材制造在工业4.0中的影响和与增材制造公司商业模式的交叉,同时揭示了在工业背景下采用增材制造的限制和挑战,调查了增材制造在工业4.0中的作用。该研究强调了AM对公司在价值链和营业额上的商业模式的积极影响。本研究还揭示了增材制造的生态设计前景,这将有助于不同的公司重新思考其商业模式,使其更具成本效益。本研究通过一项定量调查对增材制造技术进行了深入了解,该调查主要旨在对知识进行分类,并通过探索与商业模式的可能交叉点、实施的影响、可能的可持续性情景和在工业4.0背景下可能面临的挑战,调查增材制造作为改善公司价值链的杠杆的作用。
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引用次数: 5
Additive manufacturing technologies: Industrial and medical applications 增材制造技术:工业和医疗应用
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.05.001
Saquib Rouf , Abrar Malik , Navdeep Singh , Ankush Raina , Nida Naveed , Md Irfanul Haque Siddiqui , Mir Irfan Ul Haq

3D printing is increasingly becoming an important technology in the manufacturing sector and has the potential to revolutionize manufacturing. 3D printing allows customization, which produces sophisticated structures while lowering waste and at the same time allowing more flexibility in the design. This paper includes a brief overview of the main types of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies. It reviews the work carried out in various types of 3D printing technologies particularly focusing on mechanical characterization. Based on the literature studied, comparisons have been drawn on the various merits and challenges offered by various 3D printed materials. Dedicated sections on various materials aspects and application areas have been included particularly from a medical science point of view. This paper ends with a dedicated section on applications of Additive Manufacturing (AM) in orthopedic, dental, prosthetics, food and textile sectors. It tries to establish relationships between AM, industry 4.0 and sustainability. This paper shall act as a stimulant to trigger further advancements in the above fields.

3D打印正日益成为制造业的一项重要技术,并有可能彻底改变制造业。3D打印允许定制,从而产生复杂的结构,同时减少浪费,同时允许设计更灵活。本文简要概述了增材制造(AM)技术的主要类型。它回顾了在各种类型的3D打印技术中开展的工作,特别是侧重于机械特性。在文献研究的基础上,对各种3D打印材料的优点和挑战进行了比较。特别从医学的角度,还包括了关于各种材料方面和应用领域的专门章节。本文以增材制造(AM)在骨科、牙科、假肢、食品和纺织领域的应用为结束。它试图建立增材制造、工业4.0和可持续性之间的关系。本文将作为一种兴奋剂,激发上述领域的进一步发展。
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引用次数: 36
A green model for identical parallel machines scheduling problem considering tardy jobs and job splitting property 考虑延迟作业和作业分割特性的同一并行机调度问题的绿色模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.01.002
Milad Asadpour , Zahra Hodaei , Marzieh Azami , Ehsan Kehtari , Najmeh Vesal

In most organizations, especially order-oriented ones meeting deadlines are crucial. Job shop environments could be mentioned as an example where decision makers are try to schedule all jobs in such a way that tardy jobs (TJ) are minimized. Indeed, manufacturers are received customers’ orders and required to deliver them no later than the determined due dates. Otherwise, penalties should be paid to customers and it can lead to a huge amount of financial loss. Also, regarding global warming and climate changes manufacturers should redesign their processes from an eco-friendly perspective. Motivated by these issues, in this paper, a green bi-objective model has been formulated to solve the problem of scheduling parallel machines considering TJ and job splitting property (JSP). In the proposed model, the first objective function minimizes the total number of TJ while the second objective function is minimization of total energy consumption. An augmented ε-constraint method has been deployed for solving small-scale problems. However, to solve large-scale problems, an efficient Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm has been developed while a Harmony Search (HS) algorithm has also been applied to examine the quality of the proposed SA algorithm. Random generated problems have been used to compare the results of three deployed algorithms. Results approved that the proposed SA algorithm outperforms others significantly. In particular, SA solved the problems sooner than others while its solutions were closer to solutions of the augmented ε-constraint method.

在大多数组织中,尤其是以订单为导向的组织,按时完成任务至关重要。作业车间环境可以作为一个例子,其中决策者试图以最小化延迟作业(TJ)的方式调度所有作业。事实上,制造商收到客户的订单,并被要求不迟于确定的到期日交付。否则,必须向客户支付罚款,这可能会导致巨大的经济损失。此外,关于全球变暖和气候变化,制造商应该从环保的角度重新设计他们的工艺。基于这些问题,本文建立了一个考虑TJ和作业分割特性的绿色双目标模型来解决并行机调度问题。在该模型中,第一个目标函数是使TJ总数最小化,第二个目标函数是使总能耗最小化。采用增广ε约束方法求解小尺度问题。然而,为了解决大规模问题,我们开发了一种高效的模拟退火(SA)算法,并应用和谐搜索(HS)算法来检验所提出的模拟退火算法的质量。随机生成的问题被用来比较三种部署算法的结果。结果表明,该算法的性能明显优于其他算法。特别是,SA比其他方法更快地解决了问题,且其解更接近增广ε-约束方法的解。
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引用次数: 4
Assessing and predicting operation variables for doctors employing industry 4.0 in health care industry using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach 应用自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)方法对医疗保健行业采用工业4.0的医生操作变量进行评估和预测
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.susoc.2022.05.005
Maryam Fatima , N.U.K. Sherwani , Sameen Khan , Mohd Zaheen Khan

The chief objective of this study is to employ a predictive software called adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach which assess stress amongst doctors employing industry 4.0 technology during their surgeries. This study further investigates factors contributing the operation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity amongst doctors. Also, the effective performance of doctors can be optimized through earlier prediction for percentage of incorporating Industry 4.0 technologies. Survey was conducted amongst doctors using industry 4.0 technologies who provided unbiased answers to several queries in the questionnaire. The ANFIS model was employed to predict success rate of surgeries through models build with the aid of several input parameters. The outcomes such as accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were studied while employing Industry 4.0 technology which were considered significant factors influencing the perceived various kinds of surgeries in different domains. Moreover, the results of the ANFIS modelling approach showed that with increase in percentage of industry 4.0 machines in medical equipment, the operations sensitivity and accuracy increased, hence the most critical predictors. While specificity did not have any major impact on the surgeries. Henceforth, doctors can take preventive actions and simultaneously plan their work load with the aid of industry 4.0, providing better health benefits to patients making the healthcare industry much more efficient and stress-free.

本研究的主要目的是采用一种称为自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)的预测软件方法,评估采用工业4.0技术的医生在手术期间的压力。本研究进一步探讨影响医生手术准确性、敏感性和特异性的因素。此外,通过早期预测采用工业4.0技术的百分比,可以优化医生的有效绩效。调查是在使用工业4.0技术的医生中进行的,他们对问卷中的几个问题提供了公正的答案。采用ANFIS模型,借助于多个输入参数建立模型,预测手术成功率。采用工业4.0技术对手术的准确性、敏感性和特异性等结果进行了研究,认为这是影响不同领域各类手术感知的重要因素。此外,ANFIS建模方法的结果表明,随着医疗设备中工业4.0机器百分比的增加,操作灵敏度和准确性也随之提高,因此是最关键的预测因素。而特异性对手术没有任何重大影响。此后,医生可以在工业4.0的帮助下采取预防措施,同时计划他们的工作量,为患者提供更好的健康益处,使医疗保健行业更加高效和无压力。
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引用次数: 12
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Sustainable Operations and Computers
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