Urban Systems最新文献

The paper describes a development of the Urban Dynamics model into a spatially-disaggregated model. The resulting model is submitted to a number of tests and policy changes. An extension of the model to simulate urban spread and development without the assumption of an a priori fixed area is also discussed. The paper goes some way to providing a synthesis of the Urban Dynamics model with the static but spatially disaggregated Lowry model, the forerunner of the most widely used type of land use model.

The flexibility of the system dynamics method may lead one to overlook certain problems of specification and calibration, three of which are illustrated using the Urban Dynamics model.

This paper examines the Poisson process, which has proven useful in several public sector analyses, as a model of a police patrol car breakdown process. On the basis of available patrol car breakdown data for a 1-yr period, the Poisson was found to be a good model of patrol car breakdowns in a city of approximately 175,000 population. Results of both chisquare and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, implications of the Poisson model for maintenance facility staffing are discussed.

This paper provides a brief review of the range of methodologies encompassed by the Delphi technique. It then investigates a number of criticisms that have been raised in the literature in connection with Delphi and its applications. With this background an evaluation of the usefulness and limitations of these methodologies is made.

The changing pattern of local government decisionmaking in the environmental protection regulatory area is examined. The traditional pluralistic consensus model is discussed and expanded into a more realistic pluralistic conflict model. Several implications relevant to local government decisionmaking are presented.

Fiscal Impact Budgeting Simulations (FIBS) are large-scale computer models which purport to forecast the service, revenue, and expenditure implications of governmental zoning, housing, population, transportation and taxing decisions. Validation of simulation models should be conducted relative to the precise experimental frame. The issues associated with extending public sector simulation validations beyond the reasonableness and completeness stage are explored. Four levels of validation (general overall model, historical, predictive, and structural) and the degree of responsibility (commercial model vendor or local government client) are detailed in an effort to clarify issues related to FIBS validation.

A computer model involving simulation is presented which can be used by small city mass transit decision-makers to determine benefits of alternative routing-scheduling systems. Given the results of an origin-destination survey, the model determines the number of trip demands which will be lost due to poor routing or poor scheduling, and the best travel pattern for the trip demands which can be serviced by the routing-scheduling system. The simulation portion of the model then simulates the operation of the buses on the routes, and the loading, unloading, and transfer of passengers in order to determine trip revenues, vehicle operating costs, and a variety of customer service measures.

A perplexing problem today in certain departments within urban hospitals is their inability to manage the patient flow effectively. This problem was observed during a management review of a Family Planning Clinic of a large teaching hospital in a major city in the southeastern part of the country. Some work stations had long waiting lines while others were empty; some clinic employees were always rushing to meet demand for their time while others sat and chatted; and patient waiting areas were overcrowded at certain times while there was a complete absence of patients at other times.

A computer simulation model was developed to study the possible effects of changing the current staffing policies of the Family Planning Clinic and the overall effect on reducing the observed bottlenecks. Current operating procedures were tested along with seven other alternatives in the analysis.

The simulation model was constructed with statistical parameters based on a comprehensive analysis of hospital records, interviews with the staff, and, most importantly, actual observations of patient arrivals, waiting lines, service times, and exit times.

More dollars are now being spent in health care delivery research than ever before. This study not only offers recommendations for improved patient flow at the Family Planning Clinic, but also shows that the use of such sophisticated analytical techniques in the health delivery field can be just as valuable and evoke just as many synergistic effects as has already been demonstrated in industry.

This paper briefly examines research on political responsiveness and suggests that the current concentration on policy-level responsiveness is insufficient. A definition of responsiveness is provided which incorporates citizen evaluation of political responses to the specific demands placed by them. This formulation is then utilized in an impact-responsiveness pilot study of two urban agencies. Findings indicate that responsiveness is a discrete characteristic of public agency performance with a causal background different from related variables such as agency effectiveness. A set of social-psychological variables which describe the attitudes and activities of agency work units processing demands are found to be a better predictor of responsiveness than either the structural features of the agency or the socio-economic characteristics of the demanders evaluating agency responsiveness.