Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06972-8
Suryun Ham, Yeomin Jeong, Jin Ho Yoo, Somin Lim, Heesook Ji, Yu-Kyung Hyun
{"title":"What is the effect of atmospheric initial condition inconsistency between the hindcasts and real-time forecasts?","authors":"Suryun Ham, Yeomin Jeong, Jin Ho Yoo, Somin Lim, Heesook Ji, Yu-Kyung Hyun","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06972-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06972-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"29 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136022687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-27DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06998-y
Xiangjiang Wei, Si Gao, Maoqiu Jian, Fei Liu, Wei Zhang
{"title":"Interdecadal change in the relationship between the Pacific Meridional Mode and landfalling tropical cyclone frequency in China","authors":"Xiangjiang Wei, Si Gao, Maoqiu Jian, Fei Liu, Wei Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06998-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06998-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"12 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136263150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-26DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06991-5
David E. Rupp, Larry W. O’Neill, Erica Fleishman, Paul C. Loikith, Dan Loomis
{"title":"Response of gap wind-driven freezing rain and ice accretion in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, to global warming","authors":"David E. Rupp, Larry W. O’Neill, Erica Fleishman, Paul C. Loikith, Dan Loomis","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06991-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06991-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"3 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134909593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-25DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06988-0
Rui Shi, Ju Chen, Yunkai He, Wei Song, Daning Li, Yeqiang Shu, Dongxiao Wang
{"title":"Evaluation of the performance of the latest WRF model (V4.5) in simulating surface elements and its sensitivity to the diurnal SST cycle in the South China Sea","authors":"Rui Shi, Ju Chen, Yunkai He, Wei Song, Daning Li, Yeqiang Shu, Dongxiao Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06988-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06988-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"60 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135217407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-21DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06984-4
Francesco De Leo, Riccardo Briganti, Giovanni Besio
Abstract The interest for the impact of climate change on ocean waves within the Mediterranean Sea has motivated a number of studies aimed at identifying trends in sea states parameters from historical multi-decadal wave records. In the last two decades progress in computing and the availability of suitable time series from observations further supported research on this topic. With the aim of identifying consensus among previous research on the Mediterranean Sea and its sub-basins, this review analysed the results presented in peer reviewed articles researching historical ocean waves trends published after the year 2000. Most studies focused on the significant wave height trends, while direction and wave period appear to be under-studied in this context. We analysed trends in mean wave climate and extreme sea states. We divided the Mediterranean basin in 12 sub-basins and analysed the results available in the literature from a wide range of data sources, such as satellite altimetry and numerical models, among others. The consensus on the significant wave height mean climate trends is limited, while statistically significant trends in extreme values are detected in the western Mediterranean Sea, in particular in the Gulf of Lion and in the Tyrrhenian Sea, with complex spatial distributions. Negative extreme sea state trends in the sub-basins, although frequently identified, are mostly not significant. We discuss the sources of uncertainty in results introduced by the data used, statistics employed to characterise mean or extreme conditions, length of the time period used for the analysis, and thresholds used to prove trends statistical significance. The reduction of such uncertainties, and the relationship between trends in sea states and weather processes are identified as priority for future research.
{"title":"Trends in ocean waves climate within the Mediterranean Sea: a review","authors":"Francesco De Leo, Riccardo Briganti, Giovanni Besio","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06984-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06984-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The interest for the impact of climate change on ocean waves within the Mediterranean Sea has motivated a number of studies aimed at identifying trends in sea states parameters from historical multi-decadal wave records. In the last two decades progress in computing and the availability of suitable time series from observations further supported research on this topic. With the aim of identifying consensus among previous research on the Mediterranean Sea and its sub-basins, this review analysed the results presented in peer reviewed articles researching historical ocean waves trends published after the year 2000. Most studies focused on the significant wave height trends, while direction and wave period appear to be under-studied in this context. We analysed trends in mean wave climate and extreme sea states. We divided the Mediterranean basin in 12 sub-basins and analysed the results available in the literature from a wide range of data sources, such as satellite altimetry and numerical models, among others. The consensus on the significant wave height mean climate trends is limited, while statistically significant trends in extreme values are detected in the western Mediterranean Sea, in particular in the Gulf of Lion and in the Tyrrhenian Sea, with complex spatial distributions. Negative extreme sea state trends in the sub-basins, although frequently identified, are mostly not significant. We discuss the sources of uncertainty in results introduced by the data used, statistics employed to characterise mean or extreme conditions, length of the time period used for the analysis, and thresholds used to prove trends statistical significance. The reduction of such uncertainties, and the relationship between trends in sea states and weather processes are identified as priority for future research.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"49 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135511576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-19DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06954-w
Armenia Franco-Díaz, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Andrew G. Turner, Buwen Dong, Liang Guo
Abstract Climate-length experiments of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0 (GA7) and Global Coupled 3.0 (GC3) configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalyses for the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The results show systematic model biases, such as overestimated rainfall over southern China and underestimated rainfall over northern China, suggesting a monsoon that does not penetrate northward enough. We evaluate the effects on the EASM of regional errors in sea-surface temperature (SST) conditions in three regions: the Pacific, the Indian, and the Atlantic Oceans. The global SST biases in GC3 configuration substantially shift the EASM seasonal cycle: a late northward progression of the EASM in the early/mid-monsoon season, and an early retreat of the monsoon that also reduces rainfall over most of northern China. The EASM seasonal rainfall bias in the EASM region is linked to changes in the locations and strength of the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is associated with biases in local evaporation and moisture transport towards South China. GC3 biases in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) teleconnection pathways also influence the EASM biases. GC3 biases weaken the ENSO teleconnection to the EASM and cause a strong dry bias in southeast China during developing El Niño.
{"title":"Effect of global and regional SST biases on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the MetUM GA7 and GC3 configurations","authors":"Armenia Franco-Díaz, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Andrew G. Turner, Buwen Dong, Liang Guo","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06954-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06954-w","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate-length experiments of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0 (GA7) and Global Coupled 3.0 (GC3) configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalyses for the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The results show systematic model biases, such as overestimated rainfall over southern China and underestimated rainfall over northern China, suggesting a monsoon that does not penetrate northward enough. We evaluate the effects on the EASM of regional errors in sea-surface temperature (SST) conditions in three regions: the Pacific, the Indian, and the Atlantic Oceans. The global SST biases in GC3 configuration substantially shift the EASM seasonal cycle: a late northward progression of the EASM in the early/mid-monsoon season, and an early retreat of the monsoon that also reduces rainfall over most of northern China. The EASM seasonal rainfall bias in the EASM region is linked to changes in the locations and strength of the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is associated with biases in local evaporation and moisture transport towards South China. GC3 biases in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) teleconnection pathways also influence the EASM biases. GC3 biases weaken the ENSO teleconnection to the EASM and cause a strong dry bias in southeast China during developing El Niño.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135730176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-18DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06977-3
Yun Qian, Zhun Guo, Vincent E. Larson, L. Ruby Leung, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Hui Wan, Hailong Wang, Heng Xiao, Shaocheng Xie, Ben Yang, Kai Zhang, Shixuan Zhang, Yuying Zhang
Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.
{"title":"Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model","authors":"Yun Qian, Zhun Guo, Vincent E. Larson, L. Ruby Leung, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Hui Wan, Hailong Wang, Heng Xiao, Shaocheng Xie, Ben Yang, Kai Zhang, Shixuan Zhang, Yuying Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06977-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06977-3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135824405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06979-1
Anna Carolina Bazzanela, Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Pedro Regoto
{"title":"Performance of CMIP6 models over South America","authors":"Anna Carolina Bazzanela, Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Pedro Regoto","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06979-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06979-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136033027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4
Valentina Pivotti, Bruce T. Anderson
Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as one of the largest coupled climate modes, influences the livelihoods of millions of people and ecosystems survival. Thus, how ENSO is expected to behave under the influence of anthropogenic climate change is a substantial question to investigate. In this paper, we analyze future predictions of specific traits of ENSO, in combination with a subset of well-established precursors—the Trade Wind Charging and North Pacific Meridional Mode (TWC/NPMM). We study it across three sets of experiments from a protocol-driven ensemble from CMIP6—the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Namely, (1) experiments at constant 1950’s radiative forcings, and (2) experiments of present (1950–2014) and (3) future (2015–2050) climate with prescribed increasing radiative forcings. We first investigate the current and predicted spatial characteristics of ENSO events, by calculating area, amplitude and longitude of the Center of Heat Index (CHI). We see that TWC/NPMM-charged events are consistently stronger, in both the presence and absence of external forcings; however, as anthropogenic forcings increase, the area of all ENSO events increases. Since the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship has been shown to affect the oscillatory behavior of ENSO, we analyze ENSO frequency by calculating CHI-analogous indicators on the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) of its signal. With this new methodology, we show that across the ensemble, ENSO oscillates at different frequencies, and its oscillatory behavior shows different degrees of stochasticity, over time and across models. However, we see no consistent indication of future trends in the oscillatory behavior of ENSO and the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship.
{"title":"Assessing the future influence of the North Pacific trade wind precursors on ENSO in the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble","authors":"Valentina Pivotti, Bruce T. Anderson","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as one of the largest coupled climate modes, influences the livelihoods of millions of people and ecosystems survival. Thus, how ENSO is expected to behave under the influence of anthropogenic climate change is a substantial question to investigate. In this paper, we analyze future predictions of specific traits of ENSO, in combination with a subset of well-established precursors—the Trade Wind Charging and North Pacific Meridional Mode (TWC/NPMM). We study it across three sets of experiments from a protocol-driven ensemble from CMIP6—the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Namely, (1) experiments at constant 1950’s radiative forcings, and (2) experiments of present (1950–2014) and (3) future (2015–2050) climate with prescribed increasing radiative forcings. We first investigate the current and predicted spatial characteristics of ENSO events, by calculating area, amplitude and longitude of the Center of Heat Index (CHI). We see that TWC/NPMM-charged events are consistently stronger, in both the presence and absence of external forcings; however, as anthropogenic forcings increase, the area of all ENSO events increases. Since the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship has been shown to affect the oscillatory behavior of ENSO, we analyze ENSO frequency by calculating CHI-analogous indicators on the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) of its signal. With this new methodology, we show that across the ensemble, ENSO oscillates at different frequencies, and its oscillatory behavior shows different degrees of stochasticity, over time and across models. However, we see no consistent indication of future trends in the oscillatory behavior of ENSO and the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136032924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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