Clinical Epidemiology最新文献

Purpose: The aim of curative-intent treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is to restore the patients' survival to what it would have been, had they not developed HCC. We examined the chances of such 'statistical cure' from HCC in patients with cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease (ALD cirrhosis).

Patients and methods: Using nationwide Danish healthcare registries, all patients with ALD cirrhosis who were treated for HCC in 2004-2018 were identified and included in cohorts based on initial HCC treatment. We used cure fraction analyses to estimate the chance of being statistically cured by each HCC treatment.

Results: We included 1087 patients with HCC due to ALD cirrhosis, of whom 51 (4.7%) were treated with resection and 215 (19.8%) were treated with ablation. The cure fraction, ie the fraction of patients who experienced no excess mortality from HCC, was 31.8% (95% CI: 0.0-67.5) following resection and 22.9% (95% CI: 2.6-43.2) following ablation. In patients who were still alive five years after the initial HCC treatment, the likelihood of having been statistically cured at that time was 69.0% after resection and 60.2% after ablation. For both treatments, a 90% chance of having been statistically cured was reached after seven years.

Conclusion: Based on cure fraction analyses, resection for HCC statistically cures 31.8% of patients with HCC and underlying ALD cirrhosis, while ablation statistically cures 22.9% of patients. Seven years after curative-intent treatments for HCC, surviving patients are 90% likely to be statistically cured of HCC. This information is valuable to patients and the clinicians caring for them.

Background: High-Dimensional Propensity Score procedure (HDPS) is a data-driven approach to assist control for confounding in pharmacoepidemiologic research. The transition to the International Classification of Disease (ICD-9/10) in the US health system may pose uncertainty in applying the HDPS procedure.

Methods: We assembled a base cohort of patients in MarketScan^® Commercial Claims Database who had newly initiated celecoxib or traditional NSAIDs to compare gastrointestinal bleeding risk. We then created bootstrapped hypothetical cohorts from the base cohort with predefined patient selection patterns from the ICD eras. Three strategies for HDPS deployment were tested: 1) split the cohort by ICD era, deploy HDPS twice, and pool the relative risks (pooled RR), 2) consider codes from each ICD era as a separate data dimension and deploy HDPS in the entire cohort (data dimensions) and 3) map ICD codes from both eras to Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) concepts before deploying HDPS in the entire cohort (CCS mapping). We calculated percent bias and root-mean-squared error to compare the strategies.

Results: A similar bias reduction was observed in cohorts where patient selection pattern from each ICD era was comparable between the exposure groups. In the presence of considerable disparity in patient selection, we observed a bimodal distribution of propensity scores in the data dimensions strategy, indicating instrument-like covariates. Moreover, the CCS mapping strategy resulted in at least 30% less bias than pooled RR and data dimensions strategies (RMSE: 0.14, 0.19, 0.21, respectively) in this scenario.

Conclusion: Mapping ICD codes to a stable terminology like CCS serves as a helpful strategy to reduce residual bias when deploying HDPS in pharmacoepidemiologic studies spanning both ICD eras.

Purpose: The Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) suggests a step-wise approach for pharmacological treatment of asthma. Valid study of real-world treatment patterns using dispensing databases includes proper measurement of medication adherence. We aim to explore such patterns by applying a time-varying proportion of days covered (tPDC)-based algorithm.

Patients and methods: We designed a retrospective inception cohort study using the University of Groningen IADB.nl community pharmacy dispensing database. Included were 19,184 young adults who initiated asthma medication anywhere between 1994 and 2021, in the Netherlands. Main treatment steps were defined as: 1 - SABA/ICS-formoterol as needed, 2 - low dose ICS, 3 - low dose ICS + LABA or tiotropium, or intermediate dose ICS, 4 - intermediate to high dose ICS + LABA or tiotropium, triple therapy, or high dose ICS, 5 - treatment prescribed by a specialist. Changes in treatment steps were determined using a time-varying proportion of days covered (tPDC)-based algorithm. Individual drug treatment trajectories were visualized over time using a lasagna plot.

Results: At initiation, of the 19,184 included individuals, 52%, 7%, 15%, 16%, and 10% started treatment in steps 1 to 5, respectively. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 3 (1-7) years. Median (IQR) number of switches was 1 (0-3). Comparing starting step to last observed step, 37% never switched between treatment steps, 20% of individuals stepped down and 22% stepped up.

Conclusion: The low proportion of treatment switches between steps indicates that tailoring of treatment to patients' needs might be suboptimal. The tPDC-based algorithm functions well in translating dispensing data into continuous drug-utilization data, enabling a more granular assessment of treatment patterns among asthma patients.

Purpose: Development and evaluation of a drug-safety signal detection system integrating data-mining tools in longitudinal data is essential. This study aimed to construct a new triage system using longitudinal data for drug-safety signal detection, integrating data-mining tools, and evaluate adaptability of such system.

Patients and methods: Based on relevant guidelines and structural frameworks in Taiwan's pharmacovigilance system, we constructed a triage system integrating sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) and tree-based scan statistics (TreeScan) as data-mining tools for detecting safety signals. We conducted an exploratory analysis utilizing Taiwan's National Health Insurance Database and selecting two drug classes (sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and non-fluorinated quinolones (NFQ)) as chronic and episodic treatment respectively, as examples to test feasibility of the system.

Results: Under the proposed system, either cohort-based or self-controlled mining with SSA and TreeScan was selected, based on whether the screened drug had an appropriate comparator. All detected alerts were further classified as known adverse drug reactions (ADRs), events related to other causes or potential signals from the triage algorithm, building on existing drug labels and clinical judgement. Exploratory analysis revealed greater numbers of signals for NFQ with a relatively low proportion of known ADRs; most were related to indication, patient characteristics or bias. No safety signals were found. By contrast, most SGLT2i signals were known ADRs or events related to patient characteristics. Four were potential signals warranting further investigation.

Conclusion: The proposed system facilitated active and systematic screening to detect and classify potential safety signals. Countries with real-world longitudinal data could adopt it to streamline drug-safety surveillance.

Post-operative inflammation in cancer patients can be modulated by drugs and diets, but evidence on its prognostic role, which would be crucial for personalized treatment and surveillance schemes, remains rather limited. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse studies on the prognostic value of post-operative C-reactive protein (CRP)-based inflammatory biomarkers among patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) (PROSPERO#: CRD42022293832). PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane databases were searched until February 2023. Studies reporting associations between post-operative CRP, Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) or modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) with overall survival (OS), CRC-specific survival (CSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the predictor-outcome associations were pooled using R-software, version 4.2. Sixteen studies (n = 6079) were included in the meta-analyses. Elevated post-operative CRP was a predictor of poor OS, CSS and RFS compared with low CRP levels [HR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.32-2.25); 1.63 (1.30-2.05); 2.23 (1.44-3.47), respectively]. A unit increase in post-operative GPS predicted poor OS [HR (95% Cl): 1.31 (1.14-1.51)]. Moreover, a unit increase in post-operative mGPS was associated with poor OS and CSS [HR (95% Cl): 1.93 (1.37-2.72); 3.16 (1.48-6.76), respectively]. Post-operative CRP-based inflammatory biomarkers have a significant prognostic role for patients with CRC. Prognostic value of these easy-to-obtain routine measurements thereby seems to outperform most of the much more complex blood- or tissue-based predictors in the current focus of multi-omics-based research. Future studies should validate our findings, establish optimal time for biomarker assessment and determine clinically useful cut-off values of these biomarkers for post-operative risk-stratification and treatment-response monitoring.

Objective: To evaluate the risk of obesity in preschool children with prolonged screen time in Taiwan.

Methods: Using a nationwide survey with random sampling, we collected information on 8378 preschool children aged 2-6 years among 206 preschools in Taiwan from 2016 to 2019. Socioeconomic data, body mass index, and lifestyle of the preschool children and their caregivers were compared among the groups of preschool children who had moderate and prolonged daily screen time. We used multiple log-binomial regression models to calculate the adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of obesity associated with prolonged screen time.

Results: The prevalence of obesity in the preschool children was 13.1%, and the average screen time was 104.6 minutes. Children's age, sleep hours, outdoor play time, sugar intake, snack eating before dinner, sleep disturbance, and obesity, as well as caregiver's sex, age, education, screen time, exercise time and parent obesity were factors related to high screen time for preschool children. Compared with children with moderate screen time, children with prolonged screen time had a higher risk of obesity (PR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.18-1.79). With a 60-minute increase in screen time, the risk of obesity increased, with an PR of 1.10 (95% CI, 1.03-1.17).

Conclusion: Preschool children with prolonged screen time had an increased risk of obesity in Taiwan. Interventions may be needed for this very susceptible population.

Introduction: Recurrence of cancer is not routinely registered in Danish national health registers. This study aimed to develop and validate a register-based algorithm to identify patients diagnosed with recurrent lung cancer and to estimate the accuracy of the identified diagnosis date.

Material and methods: Patients with early-stage lung cancer treated with surgery were included in the study. Recurrence indicators were diagnosis and procedure codes recorded in the Danish National Patient Register and pathology results recorded in the Danish National Pathology Register. Information from CT scans and medical records served as the gold standard to assess the accuracy of the algorithm.

Results: The final population consisted of 217 patients; 72 (33%) had recurrence according to the gold standard. The median follow-up time since primary lung cancer diagnosis was 29 months (interquartile interval: 18-46). The algorithm for identifying a recurrence reached a sensitivity of 83.3% (95% CI: 72.7-91.1), a specificity of 93.8% (95% CI: 88.5-97.1), and a positive predictive value of 87.0% (95% CI: 76.7-93.9). The algorithm identified 70% of the recurrences within 60 days of the recurrence date registered by the gold standard method. The positive predictive value of the algorithm decreased to 70% when the algorithm was simulated in a population with a recurrence rate of 15%.

Conclusion: The proposed algorithm demonstrated good performance in a population with 33% recurrences over a median of 29 months. It can be used to identify patients diagnosed with recurrent lung cancer, and it may be a valuable tool for future research in this field. However, a lower positive predictive value is seen when applying the algorithm in populations with low recurrence rates.

Background: This retrospective cohort study aimed to examine the positive predictive value (PPV) of pediatric stroke diagnoses in the Danish National Registry of Patients (DNRP) and the impact of different stroke definitions on the PPV.

Methods: We included children registered with a stroke or stroke-related diagnosis in the DNRP between January 2017 through December 2020. Two assessors reviewed medical records and validated cases according to the American Heart and American Stroke Association (AHA/ASA) stroke definition. The level of interrater agreement was examined using kappa statistics. Validation by the AHA/ASA definition was compared with validation according to the definition in the International Classification of Disease 11th version (ICD-11) and the World Health Organization's definition.

Results: Stroke was confirmed in 120 of 309 included children, yielding an overall PPV of 0.39 (95% CI: 0.33-0.45). PPV varied across stroke subtypes from 0.83 (95% CI: 0.71-0.92) for ischemic stroke (AIS), 0.57 (95% CI: 0.37-0.76) for unspecified stroke, 0.42 (95% CI: 0.33-0.52) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) to 0.31 (95% CI: 0.55-0.98) and 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01-0.22) for cerebral venous thrombosis and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), respectively. Most non-confirmed ICH and SAH diagnoses were in children with traumatic intracranial hemorrhages (36 and 66% respectively). Among 70 confirmed AIS cases, 25 (36%) were identified in non-AIS code groups. PPV varied significantly across stroke definitions with the highest for the AHA/ASA definition (PPV = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.34-0.45) and the lowest for the WHO definition (PPV = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.24-0.34). Correspondingly, the incidence of pediatric AIS per 100.000 person-years changed from 1.5 for the AHA/ASA definition to 1.2 for ICD-11 and 1.0 for the WHO-definition. The overall interrater agreement was considered excellent (κ=0.85).

Conclusion: After validation, stroke was confirmed in only half of the children registered in the DNRP with a stroke-specific diagnosis. Non-validated administrative data should be used with caution in pediatric stroke research. Pediatric stroke incidence rates may vary markedly depending on which stroke definition is used.

Background and aims: Previous studies have not been able to determine whether non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) reduce the risk of sepsis in cirrhosis. We aimed to examine this question with data from 1198 patients with cirrhosis and ascites included in clinical studies of satavaptan, a vasopressin receptor antagonist with no effect on infection risk.

Methods: Risk of sepsis was estimated for NSBB users vs nonusers. Patients were examined every four weeks, or in relation to hospitalization, for the one-year duration of the trials. We computed the cumulative risk of sepsis for patients who did vs did not use NSBB at baseline. We used Cox regression to compare hazard rates of sepsis between current users and nonusers, accounting for changes in NSBB use over time. We adjusted for patient sex and age, MELD-Na score, albumin, use of antibiotics, use of proton pump inhibitors, cirrhosis etiology, history of variceal bleeding or SBP, severity of ascites and HE, HCC, other cancers, and diabetes, while stratifying on geographical region.

Results: Of the 1198 patients, 54% used NSBB at some time. There were 56 sepsis episodes. The 1-year risk of sepsis was reduced to 5.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-8.6) in baseline NSBB users vs 11.6% (95% CI 7.0-15.9) in baseline nonusers. The hazard ratio of sepsis for current NSBB users vs current nonusers was reduced to 0.5 (95% CI 0.3-0.8) and after adjustment to 0.7 (95% CI 0.4-1.3).

Conclusion: NSBB use may reduce the risk of sepsis in patients with cirrhosis and ascites, but the precision of the estimate was limited by the number of episodes of sepsis.

Purpose: Statins reportedly increase the survival of patients with cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease (ALD cirrhosis), but this association might be confounded by socioeconomic status. We examined the prevalence of statin use and socioeconomic and demographic predictors of statin initiation and discontinuation among patients with ALD cirrhosis.

Patients and methods: Using Danish nationwide healthcare registries, we examined statin use among patients diagnosed with ALD cirrhosis in 1997-2018. We computed the prevalence of statin use and incidence of statin initiation and discontinuation, and we used multivariable Cox regression to identify predictors of statin initiation and discontinuation.

Results: We identified 28,260 patients with ALD cirrhosis in 1997-2018. During this period, the prevalence of statin use rose sharply, reaching 19.0% in late 2018. Among patients diagnosed with ALD cirrhosis after 2010, 16.9% were using statins when they were diagnosed with cirrhosis. Among the patients who did not use statins initially, those with lower educational attainment were more likely to begin taking them than those with higher attainment. Also, cohabiting patients were more likely to begin than patients who lived alone, and employed patients were more likely to begin compared to patients outside the labour force. Among current statin users, unemployment predicted statin discontinuation.

Conclusion: The use of statins has become increasingly prevalent among Danish patients with ALD cirrhosis, reaching 19.0% in 2018. Employment, cohabitation, and a short education predicted statin initiation after ALD cirrhosis diagnosis, and unemployment predicted statin discontinuation. Overall, statin use was not a marker of a high socioeconomic status.