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Heuristics in Political Behavior 政治行为的启发式
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.9
M. Steenbergen, Céline Colombo
Politics is a complex affair. Whether one is a legislator or a citizen, making political decisions is rarely easy. The question of how people deal with this complexity has been on the minds of scholars for decades, if not centuries. One important answer, which emerged in the 1970s, is that decision makers rely on heuristics to tame the intricacies of politics. Heuristics are (cognitive) shortcuts that allow decision makers to bypass a great deal of information while producing an output in the form of a judgment or choice. Often such outputs are indistinguishable from what a complete consideration of the decision-relevant information would have produced. At other times the outputs may not be optimal, but they are good enough. It can also happen, however, that heuristics introduce formidable biases and result in inferior decisions. This chapter reviews the literature on heuristics use by the mass public and political elites. It discusses the kinds of heuristics that are used, how they function, and why they are both inevitable and fallible. Finally, the chapter considers the normative implications of heuristics in political behavior.
政治是复杂的事情。无论一个人是立法者还是公民,做出政治决定很少是容易的。人们如何处理这种复杂性的问题已经困扰了学者们几十年,如果不是几个世纪的话。20世纪70年代出现的一个重要答案是,决策者依靠启发式来驯服错综复杂的政治。启发式是一种(认知)捷径,它允许决策者绕过大量信息,同时以判断或选择的形式产生输出。这种产出往往与对有关决策的资料进行全面考虑所产生的产出难以区分。在其他时候,输出可能不是最佳的,但它们已经足够好了。然而,启发式方法也可能引入可怕的偏见,并导致较差的决策。本章回顾了大众和政治精英使用启发式的文献。它讨论了所使用的各种启发式,它们是如何起作用的,以及为什么它们既是不可避免的,又是容易出错的。最后,本章考虑了启发式在政治行为中的规范含义。
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引用次数: 8
Did Groupthink or Polythink Derail the 2016 Raqqa Offensive? 是群体思维还是多元思维阻碍了2016年的拉卡攻势?
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.22
K. Barr, A. Mintz
This chapter examines the effect of group dynamics on the 2016 decision within the administration of President Barack Obama to lead the international coalition in a mission to liberate Raqqa, Syria, from the Islamic State. The authors show that whereas the groupthink syndrome characterized the decision-making process of the US-led coalition’s decision to attack Raqqa, it was polythink that characterized the decision-making dynamics both in the US-led coalition and within the inner circle of Obama’s own foreign policy advisors. Through case-study analysis, the authors illustrate that groupthink is more likely in strategic decisions, whereas polythink is more likely in tactical decisions.
本章考察了群体动力学对2016年奥巴马政府决定领导国际联盟从伊斯兰国手中解放叙利亚拉卡的影响。作者指出,在以美国为首的联军决定进攻拉卡的决策过程中,群体思维综合症是其特征,而在以美国为首的联军和奥巴马自己的外交政策顾问的核心圈子中,多元思维则是其决策动态的特征。通过案例分析,作者说明了群体思维更可能出现在战略决策中,而多元思维更可能出现在战术决策中。
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引用次数: 0
The Theory of Gendered Prejudice: A Social Dominance and Intersectionalist Perspective 性别偏见理论:一个社会支配和交叉主义的视角
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.11
J. Sidanius, S. Hudson, Gregory Davis, R. Bergh
Over the last twenty-five years or so, there has been a growing awareness among race and gender scholars that a fully adequate analysis of these two forms of societal oppression cannot be done in isolation from one another. That is, an understanding of racism and sexism is fundamentally incomplete without an appreciation of how race and gender intersect and interact with one another in the creation and maintenance of group-based hierarchy and oppression. This chapter argues that while intersectionalist and critical race theorists have qualitatively (and occasionally quantitatively) drawn attention to the fact that the racial and gender dimensions of oppression are both interactively implicated in the maintenance of group-based inequality, a fully satisfactory empirical analysis of the dynamics of racism and sexism has yet to be achieved. Using the theoretical frameworks of evolutionary psychology and social dominance theory (SDT), this chapter offers an alternative understanding of the intersectional entanglement of racism and sexism. This chapter introduces the theory of gendered prejudice, a derivative of SDT, and posits that a satisfactory account of racism, or what social dominance theorists generalize as “arbitrary-set” oppression, is a deeply gendered phenomenon.
在过去25年左右的时间里,种族和性别学者越来越意识到,对这两种形式的社会压迫的充分分析不能彼此孤立地进行。也就是说,对种族主义和性别主义的理解从根本上来说是不完整的,如果不了解种族和性别是如何在以群体为基础的等级制度和压迫的创造和维持中相互交叉和相互作用的。本章认为,虽然交叉主义和批判种族理论家已经定性地(偶尔定量地)提请注意这样一个事实,即压迫的种族和性别维度都与维持基于群体的不平等相互关联,但对种族主义和性别歧视的动态进行完全令人满意的实证分析尚未实现。本章运用进化心理学和社会支配理论(SDT)的理论框架,为种族主义和性别主义的交叉纠缠提供了另一种理解。本章介绍了性别偏见理论,这是SDT的衍生理论,并假设对种族主义的令人满意的解释,或者社会统治理论家概括为“任意设定”的压迫,是一种深刻的性别现象。
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引用次数: 21
Bounded Rationality in Political Science and Politics 政治科学与政治学中的有限理性
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.21
Jonathan Bendor
Although Herbert Simon and Allen Newell studied problem-solving by experts as well as nonexperts, political scientists generally understand “bounded rationality” to refer primarily to cognitive constraints: how we fall short of completely rational decision-making. This incomplete understanding deprives us of an enormously useful intellectual legacy, built not only by Newell and Simon but also by a wide array of cognitive scientists who have explored how humans have collectively solved very difficult problems such as eliminating smallpox or designing nuclear submarines. This chapter surveys this richer understanding of bounded rationality. Cognitive capacities receive as much attention as cognitive constraints. The chapter reports work on how cultural storehouses of knowledge and certain organizational arrangements amplify our cognitive capacities in both the short and the long run. Finally, it extracts from the literature a set of thematically related propositions that are building blocks for constructing macro-theories of politics out of cognitively realistic micro-premises.
尽管赫伯特·西蒙和艾伦·纽维尔研究了专家和非专家解决问题的方法,但政治学家通常认为“有限理性”主要指的是认知约束:我们如何无法做出完全理性的决策。这种不完整的理解使我们失去了一份极其有用的知识遗产,这份遗产不仅是由纽厄尔和西蒙创造的,也是由一大批探索人类如何集体解决诸如消灭天花或设计核潜艇等非常困难的问题的认知科学家创造的。本章考察了对有限理性的更丰富的理解。认知能力和认知约束一样受到重视。本章报告了知识的文化宝库和某些组织安排如何在短期和长期内增强我们的认知能力。最后,从文献中提取出一组主题相关的命题,这些命题是从认知现实的微观前提中构建宏观政治理论的基石。
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引用次数: 1
Using Applied Decision Analysis to Understand Foreign Policy Decision-Making 运用应用决策分析理解外交政策决策
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.32
J. T. Chatagnier
A leader’s approach to foreign policy decision-making is a critical explanatory factor in understanding why certain decisions are made. While several tools are available to analysts who wish to examine the process by which decision makers settle upon their chosen alternative, one of the most compelling is applied decision analysis (ADA), which allows scholars to uncover the unique “decision DNA” associated with a given leader. This chapter surveys the literature that has used the ADA methodology to examine questions of foreign policy decision-making. It pulls from twenty studies of leaders’ decisions—with more than twenty different leaders, ranging from Winston Churchill to Mao Zedong to Osama bin Laden—which comprise more than one hundred total unique decisions, examining and discussing the findings of each. It draws inferences about which decision rules best explain leaders’ policy choices, concluding that the works in question show overwhelming support for the poliheuristic theory of decision; and it discusses how future scholars can build on the ADA research program and how this information can best be used by policymakers.
领导人制定外交政策的方法是理解为什么做出某些决定的关键解释因素。虽然有几个工具可供分析人员使用,他们希望检查决策者决定他们所选择的替代方案的过程,其中最引人注目的是应用决策分析(ADA),它允许学者揭示与特定领导者相关的独特“决策DNA”。本章概述了使用ADA方法来研究外交政策决策问题的文献。它对哪些决策规则最能解释领导人的政策选择做出了推论,并得出结论:所讨论的工作显示了对决策的多元启发式理论的压倒性支持;它还讨论了未来的学者如何在ADA研究项目的基础上继续发展,以及政策制定者如何最好地利用这些信息。
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引用次数: 0
Integrative Complexity in Politics 政治中的综合复杂性
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.7
L. G. Conway, P. Suedfeld, P. Tetlock
Political action is often a product of political thinking, and one of the most important aspects of political thought is its complexity. Thus, it is not surprising that the study of integrative complexity—the level of cognitive differentiation and subsequent integration of idea elements pertaining to an issue—has had a long and rich history in understanding political behavior. This chapter explores two arenas in which integrative complexity has contributed to our understanding of political behavior: political violence and political success. It then pursues multiple perspectives that help explain where integrative complexity comes from, including the cognitive manager model, the value pluralism model, and a strategic communication model. The chapter concludes by placing past research in the context of new developments in integrative complexity theory and measurement and considers productive directions for future complexity research in an increasingly social media–driven environment.
政治行动往往是政治思想的产物,而政治思想最重要的一个方面就是它的复杂性。因此,毫不奇怪,对综合复杂性的研究——与一个问题有关的认知分化水平和随后的思想要素整合——在理解政治行为方面有着悠久而丰富的历史。本章探讨了综合复杂性有助于我们理解政治行为的两个领域:政治暴力和政治成功。然后,它追求多种视角,帮助解释整合复杂性的来源,包括认知管理者模型,价值多元化模型和战略沟通模型。本章最后将过去的研究放在综合复杂性理论和测量的新发展背景下,并考虑在日益社会化媒体驱动的环境下未来复杂性研究的生产方向。
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引用次数: 11
Agenda Setting and Bounded Rationality 议程设置与有限理性
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.19
B. Jones, Zachary A. McGee
This chapter reviews the existing scholarship on agenda setting, focusing on two aspects of human choice. The first aspect centers on behavioral analyses of choice, especially cognitive limits to rationality (e.g., limits to the human attention span, the process of satisficing, and the use of heuristics), directed at understanding how individuals prioritize action. The second aspect focuses on organizational choice, with an emphasis on the impacts of information processing, search processes, and organizational structure. The chapter examines linkages between micro and macro processes, showing how studies of organizations and broader political systems based on a model of comprehensive rationality fail. Focusing on behavioral foundations allows for a more accurate and holistic explanation of issue prioritization (agenda setting) in complex organizations based on behavioral models of choice. The chapter concludes with suggestions for future directions of research.
本章回顾了议程设置的现有学术研究,重点关注人类选择的两个方面。第一个方面集中于选择的行为分析,特别是理性的认知限制(例如,人类注意力持续时间的限制,满足的过程和启发式的使用),旨在了解个人如何优先考虑行动。第二个方面侧重于组织选择,强调信息处理、搜索过程和组织结构的影响。本章考察了微观和宏观过程之间的联系,展示了基于综合理性模型的组织和更广泛的政治制度研究是如何失败的。关注行为基础可以更准确、更全面地解释基于行为选择模型的复杂组织中的问题优先级(议程设置)。最后,对未来的研究方向提出了建议。
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引用次数: 2
Overreaction and Bubbles in Politics and Policy 政治和政策中的过度反应和泡沫
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.28
M. Maor
Although research examining overreaction in politics and policy remains at an early stage, it is clear that it largely develops along three paths: 1) psychological explanations which put all overreactions down to errors derived from cognitive biases and constraints on information processing, as well as sociopsychological dynamics in small decision-making groups; 2) emerging institutional explanations which put all overreaction down to errors derived from institutional values, procedures, myths, and routines; 3) emerging strategic explanations centering on the idea that overreactions in politics and policy at times reflect intentional choices which may derive from the desire of political executives to pander to voters’ policy positions, to appear more competent than challengers, or to signal extremity to voters. This chapter outlines the conceptual foundations of these explanations, their analytical anatomy, and their conceptual reach. It starts by defining overreaction in politics and policy and then elaborates on the analytical foundations of these explanations and the ways they integrate theories and findings from cognitive sciences. It then highlights the disproportionate policy perspective and the derived repertoire of deliberate policy overreactions. Next, it elaborates on the way strategic explanations reconcile intentionality with behavioral micro-foundation. It then looks at policy and political overreaction which are sustained by positive feedback processes over a relatively long period of time—termed “policy bubbles” and “political bubbles,” respectively. It concludes by describing a number of directions in which the overreaction agenda could be experimentally broadened to better encompass scope conditions of its cognitive causes and the dynamics of policy bubbles.
尽管对政治和政策中的过度反应的研究仍处于早期阶段,但很明显,它主要沿着三条路径发展:1)心理学解释,将所有过度反应归结为认知偏见和信息处理限制所导致的错误,以及小决策群体中的社会心理动态;2)新兴的制度解释,将所有过度反应归结为源自制度价值观、程序、神话和惯例的错误;3)新兴的战略解释,其核心思想是,政治和政策中的过度反应有时反映了有意的选择,这种选择可能源于政治高管想要迎合选民的政策立场,表现得比挑战者更有能力,或者向选民发出极端信号。本章概述了这些解释的概念基础,它们的分析解剖,以及它们的概念范围。它首先定义了政治和政策中的过度反应,然后详细阐述了这些解释的分析基础,以及它们整合认知科学理论和发现的方式。然后,它突出了不成比例的政策视角,以及由此衍生的蓄意政策过度反应。其次,阐述了策略解释如何调和意向性与行为微观基础。然后,它着眼于政策和政治的过度反应,这些反应是由正反馈过程在相对较长一段时间内持续的——分别被称为“政策泡沫”和“政治泡沫”。最后,它描述了一些方向,在这些方向上,可以实验性地扩大过度反应议程,以更好地涵盖其认知原因的范围条件和政策泡沫的动态。
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引用次数: 16
The Operational Codes of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton 唐纳德·特朗普和希拉里·克林顿的操作代码
Pub Date : 2018-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.4
S. Walker, M. Schafer, Gary Smith
This chapter profiles the bounded rationality of two major candidates for US president in the 2016 presidential election. It identifies their philosophical beliefs regarding (1) the friendly or hostile nature of the political universe, (2) the achievement of fundamental political values, (3) the predictability of the future, (4) control over historical development, and (5) the role of chance in political life. It also examines their instrumental beliefs regarding (1) the optimum strategic approach to political goals, (2) tactical flexibility in carrying out a strategy, (3) calculation and management of risk, (4) role of timing, and (5) utility of various means in taking political action. These beliefs define a leader’s “operational code” regarding the exercise of power by self and others in world politics. The chapter extrapolates from these beliefs some game theory predictions for how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton as the next US president would exercise power in world politics.
本章分析了2016年美国总统大选中两位主要候选人的有限理性。它确定了他们关于(1)政治世界的友好或敌对性质,(2)基本政治价值的实现,(3)未来的可预测性,(4)对历史发展的控制,以及(5)政治生活中机会的作用的哲学信仰。它还考察了他们关于(1)实现政治目标的最佳战略方法,(2)执行战略的战术灵活性,(3)风险的计算和管理,(4)时机的作用,以及(5)采取政治行动的各种手段的效用的工具性信念。这些信念定义了领导人在世界政治中运用自己和他人权力的“操作准则”。本章从这些信念中推断出一些博弈论预测,即唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)或希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)作为下一任美国总统将如何在世界政治中行使权力。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science
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