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Changes in Managers’ Forecasting Behavior and the Market’s Assessment of Forecast Credibility during Periods of Financial Misreporting 财务误报期间管理者预测行为的变化与市场对预测可信度的评估
Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1919291
Stephen P. Baginski, Sean McGuire, Nathan Y. Sharp, Brady J. Twedt
The capital market benefits of high quality financial reporting create incentives for managers to signal the quality of their voluntary disclosure practices. Prior research focuses on the relations between observable measures of earnings quality and observable measures of voluntary disclosure quality. We examine the characteristics of management earnings forecasts during periods in which managers possess private (i.e., unobservable to the market) knowledge that they are engaging in financial misreporting (i.e., committing accounting fraud). Using a sample of Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions, we hypothesize and find that managers issue more bad news forecasts in periods of fraud relative to pre-fraud periods and control firms, consistent with the increased use of voluntary disclosure to manage expectations downward while violating constraints on earnings management. The fraud period forecasts are, when compared to fraudulent earnings observed by the market, less ex post biased and more accurate than pre-fraud period forecasts and thus give the appearance of higher quality voluntary disclosures. However, the fraud period forecasts are not less ex post biased or more accurate when accounting restatements later reveal true actual earnings. A consequence of the perceived increase in quality is greater bad news fraud-period forecast impact on prices relative to pre-fraud periods. Further, the enhanced price reactions do not deteriorate after the fraud is made public, suggesting that the public revelation does not taint investors’ assessment of the credibility of bad news management forecasts.
高质量财务报告对资本市场的好处,促使管理人员表明其自愿披露做法的质量。以往的研究主要集中在盈余质量的可观察测度与自愿披露质量的可观察测度之间的关系。我们研究了在管理者拥有私人(即,市场无法观察到的)知识的时期,他们正在从事财务误报(即,犯下会计欺诈)的管理层盈利预测的特征。使用美国证券交易委员会执法行动的样本,我们假设并发现,相对于欺诈前和控制公司,管理者在欺诈期间发布了更多的坏消息预测,这与越来越多地使用自愿披露来管理预期向下,同时违反盈余管理约束相一致。与市场观察到的欺诈性收益相比,欺诈期预测事后偏差较小,比欺诈期前预测更准确,从而使自愿披露的质量更高。然而,当会计重述揭示真实的实际收益时,舞弊期预测并不会减少事后偏差或更加准确。感知到质量提高的结果是,与欺诈前相比,欺诈期间的坏消息预测对价格的影响更大。此外,在欺诈行为被公开后,增强的价格反应不会恶化,这表明公开披露不会影响投资者对坏消息管理预测可信度的评估。
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引用次数: 1
Market Intermediation, Publicness, and Securities Class Actions 市场中介、公开性和证券集体诉讼
Pub Date : 2015-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2687216
Hillary A. Sale, R. Thompson
Securities class actions play a crucial, if contested, role in the policing of securities fraud and the protection of securities markets. The theoretical understanding of these private enforcement claims needs to evolve to encompass the broader set of goals that underlie the securities regulatory impulse and the publicness of those goals. Further, a clear grasp of the modern securities class action also requires an updated understanding of how the role of market intermediation in securities transactions has reshaped the realities of securities litigation in public companies and the evolution of the fraud cause of action in the context of open-market transactions. The Supreme Court’s embrace of market efficiency as a mechanism to establish reliance in its 1988 decision, Basic, Inc. v. Levinson, illustrates the necessary adaptation of common law fraud to the modern market setting, and Congressional enactment of the PSLRA in 1995 exemplifies the efforts to respond to the litigation risks inherent in that adaptation. Together, Basic and the PSLRA provide a frame for understanding both a series of recent Supreme Court decisions on securities class actions and a different understanding of the theory undergirding those class actions. To develop this understanding, we expand the conversation about the goals of securities regulation to include the set of goals that are rooted in publicness and focus on market protection, innovation, and growth, as well as stability and systemic considerations. We posit that this broader theoretical understanding explains why the Court rejected a challenge to the fraud on the market doctrine and, instead, permitted the continued use of market efficiency: the Court chose to preserve the deterrence and enforcement role of these cases in promoting market growth and innovation. We then apply this understanding of publicness and market intermediation to the interpretation of the Court’s limited, but ambiguous, use of “price impact” in securities fraud cases. Our analysis reveals that the practical balance established by Basic and the PSLRA has prevailed over pure doctrinal approaches to issues like reliance or other, more incomplete theoretical explanations focused solely on compensation, deterrence, and investor protection, but neglecting the role of publicness in the securities markets.
证券集体诉讼在监管证券欺诈和保护证券市场方面发挥着至关重要的作用。对这些私人执法要求的理论理解需要发展,以涵盖构成证券监管冲动和这些目标的公开性的更广泛的目标。此外,要清楚地掌握现代证券集体诉讼,还需要对市场中介在证券交易中的作用如何重塑上市公司证券诉讼的现实以及公开市场交易背景下欺诈诉因的演变有一个最新的理解。最高法院在1988年的判决“Basic, Inc. v. Levinson”中将市场效率作为建立信赖的一种机制,这说明了普通法欺诈必须适应现代市场环境,1995年国会颁布的PSLRA体现了应对这种适应所固有的诉讼风险的努力。总之,Basic和PSLRA提供了一个框架来理解最近一系列最高法院关于证券集体诉讼的判决,以及对这些集体诉讼的理论的不同理解。为了发展这种理解,我们扩大了关于证券监管目标的对话,包括植根于公开的一系列目标,重点是市场保护、创新和增长,以及稳定性和系统性考虑。我们认为,这种更广泛的理论理解解释了为什么法院驳回了对市场欺诈理论的挑战,相反,允许继续使用市场效率:法院选择保留这些案件在促进市场增长和创新方面的威慑和执法作用。然后,我们将这种对公开性和市场中介的理解应用于法院在证券欺诈案件中有限但模棱两可地使用“价格影响”的解释。我们的分析表明,《基本原则》和《PSLRA》所建立的实际平衡,在处理依赖或其他更不完整的理论解释等问题时,已经胜过了纯粹的理论方法,这些理论解释只关注补偿、威慑和投资者保护,而忽视了公开在证券市场中的作用。
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引用次数: 3
Strategic Trading and Delayed Disclosure by Informed Traders 策略交易和延迟披露的知情交易者
Pub Date : 2015-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2694336
E. Danesh
The current SEC regulation section 13(f) allows financial institutions to delay the disclosure of their quarter-end stock holdings up to 45 days. Motivated by a recent regulatory debate about the appropriate length of delay for disclosures, I develop a model to examine a financial institution’s optimal response in different regulatory environments in terms of permitted delay. I show that an institution with access to better information about stocks optimally chooses to delay filing its disclosure for as long as permitted by the regulations. I demonstrate that this forbearance results in higher levels of profits for the financial institution relative to the case with immediate disclosure. Furthermore, delayed disclosure has nuanced implications on market quality: while longer delays by financial institutions with access to private information render the markets less liquid, they result in prices that are more reflective of the fundamentals.
美国证券交易委员会(SEC)目前的监管规定第13(f)条允许金融机构将季度末股票持有量的披露推迟至多45天。受最近关于披露的适当延迟长度的监管辩论的启发,我开发了一个模型,以允许延迟的角度来研究金融机构在不同监管环境下的最佳反应。我的研究表明,一家能够获得更多股票信息的机构,在监管允许的时间内,最好选择推迟提交披露文件。我证明,相对于立即披露的情况,这种忍耐为金融机构带来了更高的利润水平。此外,延迟披露对市场质量有着微妙的影响:虽然金融机构获得私人信息的时间越长,市场的流动性就越低,但这会导致价格更能反映基本面。
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引用次数: 2
Karl Polanyi and the Problem of Corporate Social Responsibility 卡尔·波兰尼与企业社会责任问题
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6478.2015.00718.x
L. Moncrieff
This article considers Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as part of the projects in ‘new governance and decentred regulation’, which draw social forces towards the regulation of economic behaviour. It uses Karl Polanyi to open up pertinent interfaces between society and economy for observation, and Gunther Teubner to substantiate a ‘regulatory’ view of the company's social relationships. The article finds that CSR combines movements for the recognition of social relationships, on an unprecedented scale, with rigorous simultaneous movements for market building and social abstraction. Twenty‐first‐century market economy is defined by a capacity to contain ‘the social,’ which is thrown between the two movements, creating opportunities for companies to void the market's social limits. The article counterposes that the social that ‘returns’ after marketization needs to find its way past market‐building CSR, to constructively unshackle and redefine the framing of social conflicts that concern the corporation.
本文将企业社会责任(CSR)作为“新治理和去中心化监管”项目的一部分,将社会力量引向对经济行为的监管。它使用卡尔·波兰尼(Karl Polanyi)来打开社会与经济之间的相关接口以供观察,并使用冈瑟·特布纳(Gunther Teubner)来证实公司社会关系的“监管”观点。文章发现,企业社会责任以前所未有的规模将社会关系的认可运动与市场建设和社会抽象的严格同步运动结合在一起。21世纪的市场经济被定义为包含“社会”的能力,它被抛在两个运动之间,为公司创造了摆脱市场社会限制的机会。本文认为,市场化后“回归”的社会需要找到一条超越市场构建型企业社会责任的道路,建设性地解开和重新定义与企业有关的社会冲突框架。
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引用次数: 10
Sinking, Fast and Slow: Bifurcating Beta in Financial and Behavioral Space 下沉,快与慢:金融和行为空间的分岔Beta
Pub Date : 2015-07-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2629541
J. Chen
Modern portfolio theory accords symmetrical treatment to all deviations from expected return, positive or negative. This assumption is vulnerable on both descriptive and behavioral grounds. Many of the predictive flaws in contemporary finance stem from mathematically elegant but empirically flawed Gaussian models. In reality, returns are skewed. The presumption that returns and volatility are symmetrical also defies human behavior. Losing hurts worse than winning feels good; investors do not react equally to upside gain and downside loss. Moreover, correlation tightening during bear markets, not offset by changes in correlation during bull markets, suggest that standard diversification strategies may erode upside returns without providing adequate protection during times of stress.This article outlines mathematical tools for calculating volatility, variance, covariance, correlation, and beta, not merely across the entire spectrum of returns, but also on either side of mean returns. It pays special attention to beta. Beta is a composite measure that reflects changes in volatility and in correlation as returns move across either side of their expected value. Beta’s separate components address the distinct managerial concerns arising from loss aversion (or upside speculation) and from changes in correlation under different market conditions. Bifurcating beta in financial space describes both phenomena and anticipates the behavioral response to volatility and correlation in falling markets — problems appropriately described as sinking, fast and slow.
现代投资组合理论对所有偏离预期收益的情况,无论是正的还是负的,都给予对称处理。这种假设在描述和行为上都是脆弱的。当代金融中的许多预测缺陷源于数学上优雅但在经验上存在缺陷的高斯模型。在现实中,回报是倾斜的。回报率和波动性对称的假设也违背了人类的行为。失败带来的伤害比胜利带来的愉悦更大;投资者对上行收益和下行损失的反应并不相同。此外,熊市期间的相关性收紧,并没有被牛市期间相关性的变化所抵消,这表明标准的多元化策略可能会侵蚀上行回报,而不会在压力时期提供足够的保护。本文概述了用于计算波动性、方差、协方差、相关性和beta的数学工具,不仅适用于整个回报谱,还适用于平均回报的两侧。它特别关注。贝塔系数是一种综合指标,反映了当回报率越过其预期值的任何一侧时波动性和相关性的变化。贝塔系数的独立成分解决了不同的管理问题,这些问题来自于损失厌恶(或上行投机)和不同市场条件下相关性的变化。金融领域的分岔beta描述了这两种现象,并预测了市场下跌时对波动性和相关性的行为反应——这些问题被恰当地描述为下沉、快速和缓慢。
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引用次数: 2
Carrot or Stick? The Shift from Voluntary to Mandatory Disclosure of Risk Factors 胡萝卜还是大棒?风险因素披露从自愿向强制性的转变
Pub Date : 2015-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/jels.12115
Karen K. Nelson, A. Pritchard
This study investigates risk factor disclosures, examining both the voluntary, incentive-based disclosure regime provided by the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act as well as the SEC’s subsequent mandate of these disclosures. Firms subject to greater litigation risk disclose more risk factors, update the language more from year-to-year, and use more readable language than firms with lower litigation risk. These differences in the quality of disclosure are pronounced in the voluntary disclosure regime, but converge following the SEC mandate, as low risk firms improved the quality of their risk factor disclosures. Consistent with these findings, the risk factor disclosures of high litigation risk firms are significantly more informative about systematic and idiosyncratic firm risk when disclosure is voluntary but not when disclosure is mandated. Overall, the results suggest that for some firms voluntary disclosure of risk factors is not a substitute for a regulatory mandate.
本研究调查了风险因素披露,考察了《私人证券诉讼改革法案》安全港条款提供的自愿、基于激励的披露制度,以及美国证券交易委员会随后对这些披露的授权。与诉讼风险较低的律所相比,诉讼风险较高的律所披露的风险因素更多,每年更新的语言也更多,并且使用的语言更具可读性。这些披露质量的差异在自愿披露制度中很明显,但在美国证券交易委员会的要求下趋于一致,因为低风险公司提高了其风险因素披露的质量。与这些发现一致,高诉讼风险公司的风险因素披露,当披露是自愿的,而不是强制披露时,对系统和特殊公司风险的信息更丰富。总体而言,结果表明,对一些公司来说,自愿披露风险因素并不能替代监管要求。
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引用次数: 76
The Spectral Stress VaR (SSVaR) 应力谱VaR (SSVaR)
Pub Date : 2015-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2622391
D. Guégan, Bertrand K. Hassani, Kehan Li
One of the key lessons of the crisis which began in 2007 has been the need to strengthen the risk coverage of the capital framework. In response, the Basel Committee in July 2009 completed a number of critical reforms to the Basel II framework which will raise capital requirements for the trading book and complex securitisation exposures, a major source of losses for many international active banks. One of the reforms is to introduce a stressed value-at-risk (VaR) capital requirement based on a continuous 12-month period of significant financial stress (Basel III (2011)). However the Basel framework does not specify a model to calculate the stressed VaR and leaves it up to the banks to develop an appropriate internal model to capture material risks they face. Consequently we propose a forward stress risk measure ``spectral stress VaR" (SSVaR) as an implementation model of stressed VaR, by exploiting the asymptotic normality property of the distribution of estimator of VaR_p. In particular to allow SSVaR incorporating the tail structure information we perform the spectral analysis to build it. Using a data set composed of operational risk factors we fit a panel of distributions to construct the SSVaR in order to stress it. Additionally we show how the SSVaR can be an indicator regarding the inner model robustness for the bank.
始于2007年的这场危机的一个关键教训是,有必要加强资本框架的风险覆盖。作为回应,巴塞尔委员会于2009年7月完成了对巴塞尔协议II框架的一系列关键改革,这些改革将提高交易簿和复杂证券化敞口的资本要求,这是许多国际活跃银行的主要损失来源。其中一项改革是根据连续12个月的重大财务压力(巴塞尔协议III(2011))引入压力风险价值(VaR)资本要求。然而,巴塞尔框架并未指定计算压力风险值的模型,而是让银行自行开发适当的内部模型,以捕捉它们面临的重大风险。因此,我们利用VaR_p估计量分布的渐近正态性,提出了一种正演应力风险测度“谱应力VaR”(SSVaR)作为应力VaR的实现模型。特别是为了允许SSVaR结合尾部结构信息,我们执行光谱分析来构建它。使用由操作风险因素组成的数据集,我们拟合了一个分布面板来构建SSVaR,以便强调它。此外,我们还展示了SSVaR如何成为银行内部模型稳健性的指标。
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引用次数: 2
Catching Insider Trading 抓内幕交易
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3160473
Margaret Ryznar, F. Sensenbrenner
This Columbia Law School Blue Sky Blog post on insider trading analyzes shares from NASDAQ, AMEX, the New York Stock Exchange, and over the counter (OTC) markets, which allows for an examination of insider behavior within different market structures. We find that trades are different from surrounding trades in both trade to trade price impact and trade lot volume, information that should aid the government in identifying and prosecuting insider trading.
这篇哥伦比亚大学法学院蓝天博客的内幕交易文章分析了纳斯达克、美国证券交易所、纽约证券交易所和场外交易市场的股票,这允许对不同市场结构中的内幕行为进行检查。我们发现,交易在交易价格影响和交易量方面与周围交易不同,这些信息应该有助于政府识别和起诉内幕交易。
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引用次数: 0
Algunos Swaps de Tipos de Interés (Some Interest Rate Swaps)
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2191702
Pablo Fernandez
Spanish Abstract: Esta nota contiene un caso real de una empresa que tenia un credito con tipo de interes variable y contrato un swap para pagar tipo de interes fijo y eliminar su riesgo de interes. La nota tambien contiene 30 comentarios sobre el swap y varias contestaciones a los mismos realizadas por lectores de versiones anteriores de este documento. English Abstract: This note has a real case of a company that had a variable-interest credit and subscribed a swap to pay fixed-interest and so, to eliminate its interest rate risk. The note also has 30 comments about the swap and answers to these comments made by readers of previous versions.
摘要:本票据包含一个真实的案例,该公司持有浮动利率信贷,并签订掉期合同,以支付固定利率并消除利息风险。该备忘录还包含了30条关于交换的评论,以及本文件以前版本的读者对交换的一些回应。该票据有一个真实的案例,该公司拥有可变利率信贷,并签订了支付固定利率的互换,从而消除了其利率风险。The note也一直30 comments about The swap问答这些comments made by读者of previous版本。
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引用次数: 0
Amicus Brief of Scholars of Insurance Regulation in MetLife v. FSOC 大都会人寿诉FSOC案中保险监管学者的法庭之友摘要
Pub Date : 2015-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2611853
Deepak Gupta, D. Schwarcz
This Amicus Brief of Scholars of Insurance Regulation involves MetLife's challenge to the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s ("FSOC") determination that material financial distress at the company could pose a threat to U.S. financial stability. The brief focuses on one central element of MetLife’s challenge -- that FSOC failed to adequately consider the strength of the state insurance regulatory system in designating MetLife as a systemically significant nonbank financial company. The amicus brief argues that FSOC’s designation of MetLife fairly accounts for state insurance regulation’s focus on protecting policyholders rather than mitigating systemic risk. It argues that advancing these two regulatory goals often requires very different types of prudential safeguards and supervisory scrutiny. Many of the central features of U.S. state insurance regulation, the brief suggests, are inadequate in their capacity to prevent, anticipate, or respond to systemic risks. This problem is structural and cannot be remedied by state reforms, as states lack the inherent jurisdiction and ability to properly monitor and regulate systemic financial risk.
本《保险监管学者之友简报》涉及大都会人寿对金融稳定监督委员会(“FSOC”)认定该公司的重大财务困境可能对美国金融稳定构成威胁的挑战。该简报的重点是大都会人寿面临挑战的一个核心要素——FSOC在将大都会人寿指定为具有系统重要性的非银行金融公司时,未能充分考虑到州保险监管体系的实力。法庭之友意见书辩称,FSOC对大都会人寿的指定公平地说明了州保险监管的重点是保护保单持有人,而不是减轻系统性风险。报告认为,推进这两个监管目标往往需要非常不同类型的审慎保障措施和监管审查。简报认为,美国各州保险监管的许多核心特征在预防、预测或应对系统性风险方面能力不足。这个问题是结构性的,无法通过国家改革来解决,因为国家缺乏固有的管辖权和能力来适当地监测和监管系统性金融风险。
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引用次数: 0
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Corporate Law: Law & Finance eJournal
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