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The Siren Song of Litigation Funding 诉讼资金的警笛之歌
Pub Date : 2019-08-27 DOI: 10.36639/MBELR.9.1.SIREN
J. B. Heaton
For an investor, litigation funding is too tempting to resist. Litigation funding promises that most elusive of investment returns: ones uncorrelated with an investor’s other investment returns, like those from stocks and bonds and commodities. Litigation funding also invests in a world that seems fraught with possible pricing inefficiencies. It seems plausible — even likely — that a team of smart lawyer-underwriters can identify high-value litigation investments to generate superior returns for litigation-funding investors. But more than a decade of experience suggests that the promise of litigation funding is a siren song. The promise draws investors into the water, but the payoffs may be meagre and rare. While litigation funding has always been controversial with defendants and business trade associations, the real problem is that the investment class is a poor one. First, high-stakes civil litigation is far more complex and random than most investors understand. There are an overwhelming number of ways that litigants can lose and far fewer paths to significant victories. Second, only a subset of good cases — from an investment perspective — is likely to find its way to funders. Third, litigation funding is probably prone to optimism bias, causing litigation funders to overestimate the probability of victory in their cases. Finally, litigation funding is fungible with little value added by the funder, suggesting that competition will drive down any significant profits that have existed in the business previously. While litigation funding serves a valuable social purpose when it allows meritorious cases to proceed that otherwise would not be pursued, we can expect investor success in the field to be rare and likely limited to those funders with the most litigation savvy and the best luck. Nevertheless, investors are unlikely to give up on the space despite the large prospect of poor returns.
对于投资者来说,诉讼融资太诱人了,难以抗拒。诉讼融资承诺了最难以捉摸的投资回报:与投资者的其他投资回报(如股票、债券和大宗商品)不相关的回报。诉讼基金还投资于一个似乎充满了可能的定价效率低下的世界。一个由聪明的律师兼承销商组成的团队,能够识别出高价值的诉讼投资,从而为诉讼融资投资者带来更高的回报,这似乎是合理的——甚至是可能的。但十多年来的经验表明,诉讼资金的承诺是一种诱惑。这一承诺吸引了投资者,但回报可能是微薄和罕见的。尽管诉讼资金一直在被告和商业行业协会之间存在争议,但真正的问题在于,投资类别是一个糟糕的类别。首先,高风险的民事诉讼比大多数投资者所理解的要复杂和随机得多。诉讼当事人可能输掉官司的方式有很多,而取得重大胜利的途径要少得多。其次,从投资的角度来看,只有一小部分好案例可能找到出资人。第三,诉讼资助可能容易出现乐观偏见,导致诉讼出资人高估其案件胜诉的概率。最后,诉讼融资是可替代的,出资人几乎没有增加任何价值,这表明竞争将压低该行业此前存在的任何可观利润。虽然诉讼融资有一个有价值的社会目的,因为它允许有价值的案件继续进行,否则就不会追求,但我们可以预期,投资者在这一领域的成功是罕见的,可能仅限于那些最懂诉讼、运气最好的投资者。然而,投资者不太可能放弃这一领域,尽管回报率可能很低。
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引用次数: 2
Nailing the Flag to the Mast – Promises of Super-Priority in Public Debt 把旗子钉在桅杆上——承诺优先处理公共债务
Pub Date : 2019-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3432139
M. Gousgounis, G. M. Gulati, L. Buchheit
Confronted with eroding market confidence in a country's debt obligations, what's a local politician to do? Major changes to fiscal policies are inevitably controversial back home. Securing financial support from multilateral official sector entities usually involves knuckling under to unpopular economic reforms. But there is one measure all politicians can take quickly and cheaply – cross their hearts, hope to die, and solemnly promise to treat debt service payments as the first, the highest and the most sacred priority in the use of public funds. The question is, what are such promises worth in practice? We argue not much.
面对市场对一国债务信心的侵蚀,当地政客该怎么做?财政政策的重大变化不可避免地会在国内引起争议。从多边官方部门实体获得财政支持通常需要屈服于不受欢迎的经济改革。但有一项措施是所有政客都能迅速而廉价地采取的——发誓,希望去死,郑重承诺,在使用公共资金时,将偿债作为第一、最高、最神圣的优先事项。问题是,这样的承诺在实践中值多少钱?我们很少争吵。
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引用次数: 1
The Costs of Curbing Speculation: Evidence from the Establishment of 'Investment Grade' 抑制投机的代价:来自“投资级”确立的证据
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2700814
Asaf Bernstein
Recent regulatory restrictions on proprietary trading by banks, such as the “Volcker Rule”, have elevated discussion about the potential costs to non-financial firms of restricting investments of major institutional investors, such as banks. History provides some hints to the possible costs of excluding banks from “speculative” investments. On February 15th, 1936 the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency unexpectedly announced that member banks of the Federal Reserve System, one of the largest investors in corporate bonds, were no longer allowed to purchase securities rated as speculative grade by rating agencies. This controversial ruling affected more than half of all publicly traded corporate bonds and represented the inception of federal rating-contingent bank investment restrictions. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity at the investment grade cut-off, I find that following the announcement financing constraints induced by the exclusion of banks from the speculative grade corporate debt market cause a persistent 3-5% decline in the equity market value of firms requiring speculative financing. I find that this decline is concentrated among firms in industries reliant on external financing. This decline does not, however, appear to be driven by a change in perceived default risk or direct debt financing costs, since bond yields do not change. Instead, I find that firms who initially require speculative financing reduce the size of their debt issuances to improve their credit rating. These firms subsequently have less long-term debt, fewer investments, and slower asset growth in the years following the ruling. Overall these results provide evidence that regulators may need to consider the costs to non-financial firms of policies that attempt to curb speculative trading by banks.
最近对银行自营交易的监管限制,如“沃尔克规则”(Volcker Rule),引发了有关限制银行等主要机构投资者投资对非金融公司的潜在成本的讨论。历史提供了一些提示,说明将银行排除在“投机性”投资之外可能付出的代价。1936年2月15日,美国货币监理署出人意料地宣布,作为公司债券最大的投资者之一,联邦储备系统的成员银行不再被允许购买被评级机构评为投机级的证券。这一有争议的裁决影响了所有公开交易的公司债券的一半以上,并标志着联邦评级附带银行投资限制的开始。使用投资级截止点的模糊回归不连续,我发现在宣布融资约束后,由于银行被排除在投机级公司债券市场之外,导致需要投机融资的公司的股票市场价值持续下降3-5%。我发现这种下降集中在依赖外部融资的行业的公司。然而,这种下降似乎不是由感知违约风险或直接债务融资成本的变化驱动的,因为债券收益率没有变化。相反,我发现最初需要投机性融资的公司会减少其债务发行规模,以提高其信用评级。随后,这些公司的长期债务减少,投资减少,在裁决后的几年里,资产增长放缓。总的来说,这些结果提供的证据表明,监管机构可能需要考虑试图遏制银行投机交易的政策对非金融公司的成本。
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引用次数: 0
The Value of Say on Pay 薪酬话语权的价值
Pub Date : 2019-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3337192
Axel H. Kind, Marco Poltera, Johannes Zaia
This paper measures the influence of "say on pay" (SoP) - mandatory shareholder votes on top-management compensation - on the market value of corporate voting rights. By exploiting the staggered introduction of SoP regulations across ten major European economies, we show by difference-in-differences (DiD) regressions that the value of voting rights at annual shareholder meetings - extracted from prices of liquid options - has increased for firms with excessive CEO pay, while it has decreased for other companies. Surprisingly, shareholders tend to value advisory SoP votes but not the stricter binding votes. Thus, the option to signal dissent with current compensation via SoP votes is not per se valuable and can actually translate into net costs for shareholders. Finally, the effect of mandatory SoP on voting values is concentrated on the year of introduction and fades out over time. Placebo regressions support the accuracy of our DiD research design.
本文衡量了“薪酬话语权”(SoP)——股东对高管薪酬的强制性投票——对公司投票权市场价值的影响。通过利用欧洲10个主要经济体错开引入SoP法规的情况,我们通过差分回归(DiD)表明,年度股东大会上的投票权价值(从流动性期权价格中提取)在CEO薪酬过高的公司中有所增加,而在其他公司中有所下降。令人惊讶的是,股东倾向于重视辅导性SoP投票,而不是更严格的约束性投票。因此,通过SoP投票对当前薪酬表示异议的选择权本身没有价值,实际上可以转化为股东的净成本。最后,强制性SoP对投票值的影响主要集中在引入年份,并随着时间的推移逐渐消失。安慰剂回归支持我们DiD研究设计的准确性。
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引用次数: 1
Effectiveness of Policy and Regulation in European Sovereign Credit Risk Markets: A Network Analysis 欧洲主权信用风险市场的政策与监管有效性:一个网络分析
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000092476
Rebekka Buse, M. Schienle, Jörg Urban
We study the impact of changes in regulations and policy interventions on systemic risk among European sovereigns measured as volatility spillovers in respective credit risk markets. Our unique intraday CDS dataset allows for precise measurement of the effectiveness of these events in a network setting. In particular, it allows discerning interventions which entail significant changes in network cross-effects with appropriate bootstrap confidence intervals. We show that it was mainly regulatory changes with the ban of trading naked sovereign CDS in 2012 as well as the new ISDA regulations in 2014 which were most effective in reducing systemic risk. In comparison, we find that the effect of policy interventions was minor and generally not sustainable. In particular, they only had a significant impact when implemented for the first time and when targeting more than one country. For the volatility spillover channels, we generally find balanced networks with no fragmentation over time.
我们研究了监管变化和政策干预对欧洲主权国家系统性风险的影响,以各自信用风险市场的波动溢出效应来衡量。我们独特的日内CDS数据集允许在网络设置中精确测量这些事件的有效性。特别是,它允许在适当的自举置信区间内识别需要网络交叉效应显著变化的干预措施。我们表明,在降低系统性风险方面最有效的是监管变化,包括2012年禁止交易裸主权CDS以及2014年新的ISDA法规。相比之下,我们发现政策干预的效果很小,而且通常是不可持续的。特别是,它们只有在首次实施和针对不止一个国家时才会产生重大影响。对于波动性溢出通道,我们通常发现平衡的网络不会随着时间的推移而分裂。
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引用次数: 0
Patent Eligibility and Investment 专利资格与投资
Pub Date : 2019-02-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3340937
David O. Taylor
Have the Supreme Court’s recent patent eligibility cases changed the behavior of venture capital and private equity investment firms, and if so how? This Article provides empirical data about investors’ answers to those important questions. Analyzing responses to a survey of 475 investors at firms investing in various industries and at various stages of funding, this Article explores how the Court’s recent cases have influenced these firms’ decisions to invest in companies developing technology. The survey results reveal investors’ overwhelming belief that patent eligibility is an important consideration in investment decisionmaking, and that reduced patent eligibility makes it less likely their firms will invest in companies developing technology. According to investors, however, the impact differs between industries. For example, investors predominantly indicated no impact or only slightly decreased investments in the software and Internet industry, but somewhat or strongly decreased investments in the biotechnology, medical device, and pharmaceutical industries. The data and these findings (as well as others described in the Article) provide critical insight, enabling evidence-based evaluation of competing arguments in the ongoing debate about the need for congressional intervention in the law of patent eligibility. And, in particular, they indicate reform is most crucial to ensure continued robust investment in the development of life science technologies.
最高法院最近的专利资格案件是否改变了风险资本和私募股权投资公司的行为,如果有的话,是如何改变的?本文提供了投资者对这些重要问题的答案的实证数据。本文分析了对投资于不同行业和不同融资阶段的公司的475名投资者的调查结果,探讨了法院最近的案件如何影响这些公司投资开发技术公司的决定。调查结果显示,投资者压倒性地认为专利资格是投资决策中的一个重要考虑因素,专利资格的降低使他们的公司不太可能投资于开发技术的公司。然而,投资者表示,不同行业的影响有所不同。例如,投资者主要表示在软件和互联网行业的投资没有受到影响或只是略有减少,但在生物技术、医疗设备和制药行业的投资有所减少或大幅减少。数据和这些发现(以及文章中描述的其他发现)提供了关键的见解,使在正在进行的关于国会是否需要干预专利资格法律的辩论中,能够对相互竞争的论点进行基于证据的评估。他们特别指出,改革对于确保对生命科学技术发展的持续强劲投资至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
The 2017 Tax Act’s Potential Impact on Bank Safety and Capitalization 2017年税法对银行安全和资本化的潜在影响
Pub Date : 2019-02-20 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3268891
M. Roe, M. Troege
Much has been written and discussed in banking circles about recent rollbacks in prudential regulation, with some seeing the rollbacks as unsafe and others seeing them as allowing stronger financial action. Undiscussed is that the basic taxation of the corporation in the United States—and banks are taxed like ordinary corporations—has a profound impact on the level of debt and equity throughout the economy and in the banking system in particular, and that recent changes to the tax code could affect bank safety, stability, and capitalization levels. We analyze here how and why the 2017 tax act will incentivize banks to be better capitalized, albeit modestly so. For those worried about regulatory rollbacks that decrease bank safety, this tax incentive—which has been unremarked upon and not analyzed in the academic literature, as far as we can tell—offsets some recent regulatory rollbacks. And, more important analytically and potentially for policy, we show that this tax change, if properly expanded, would have a major beneficial safety impact on banks. Properly reformed, the taxation of banks (1) can substantially improve bank safety, at a level that may well rival the improvements from post-crisis regulation and (2) can be done in a revenue-neutral way.
银行界已经写了很多关于最近审慎监管倒退的文章和讨论,一些人认为这种倒退是不安全的,另一些人则认为它们允许更强有力的金融行动。未被讨论的是,美国公司的基本税收——银行像普通公司一样被征税——对整个经济,特别是银行系统的债务和股本水平有着深远的影响,最近对税法的修改可能会影响银行的安全、稳定和资本化水平。我们在此分析2017年的税收法案如何以及为什么会激励银行提高资本充足率,尽管这种激励力度不大。对于那些担心监管回退会降低银行安全性的人来说,这种税收激励——据我们所知,在学术文献中没有被注意到,也没有被分析过——抵消了最近一些监管回退。而且,更重要的分析和潜在的政策是,我们表明,这种税收变化,如果适当扩大,将对银行的安全产生重大有益影响。经过适当改革,对银行征税(1)可以大大提高银行的安全性,其水平完全可以与危机后监管带来的改善相媲美;(2)可以以一种收入中性的方式实现。
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引用次数: 0
A Game Theoretic Approach to Assessing the Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Extent to Which a Global Financial Regulatory Organization May Be Necessary to Resolve the Issues and Lasting Impact of the 2007–9 Financial Crisis? 用博弈论的方法来评估金融危机的起因,以及在何种程度上需要一个全球性的金融监管组织来解决2007 - 2009年金融危机的问题和持久影响?
Pub Date : 2019-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3329615
Khadijah Gibril Sesay
The Domino Causal Theory in this paper takes a game theoretic approach to assessing the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-9. The paper assesses the relationship between the causal contributors highlighted at each stage and uses descriptive game theory to determine whether the impact of the 2007-09 crisis could have been resolved. The paper focuses on the causes of the crisis based on the pre-crisis events that occurred in the UK and US and as such the concept of a Global Financial Regulation Organisation as a resolution to prevailing financial regulation failures is limited to the critical analysis of these two jurisdictions. The Domino Causal Theory developed by the author derives from descriptive models of Game Theory. The domino causal theory categorizes the causes of the crisis into four stages 1) regulatory failures 2) Market failures 3) The failure of Non-Governmental Organisation 4) Depositor panic. At each stage the author will critically assess the failures that occurred prior to the crisis, it determines whether they have been resolved and whether these failures support the need for a GFRO capable of mitigating the occurrence of another crisis.

Please note that the article cited 'The Entrepreneurial Nature of Salespeople: How They Justify Unethical Behaviors', was applied by SSRN I have no involvement in its application or to this paper please contact SSRN directly to discuss why this has been applied to this article.
本文中的多米诺因果理论采用博弈论的方法来评估2007- 2009年金融危机的原因。本文评估了每个阶段突出的因果因素之间的关系,并使用描述性博弈论来确定2007-09年危机的影响是否可以得到解决。本文的重点是基于发生在英国和美国的危机前事件的危机原因,因此,全球金融监管组织作为解决普遍金融监管失败的概念仅限于对这两个司法管辖区的批判性分析。作者提出的多米诺因果理论来源于博弈论的描述模型。多米诺骨牌因果理论将危机的原因分为四个阶段:1)监管失灵;2)市场失灵;3)非政府组织失灵;4)储户恐慌。在每个阶段,作者将批判性地评估危机之前发生的失败,确定它们是否已经解决,以及这些失败是否支持对能够减轻另一场危机发生的GFRO的需求。请注意,文章引用的“销售人员的企业家性质:他们如何证明不道德行为”是由SSRN应用的,我没有参与它的应用,或者对于这篇论文,请直接联系SSRN讨论为什么这篇文章被应用。
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引用次数: 0
Did TARP Reduce or Increase Systemic Risk? The Effects of Government Aid on Financial System Stability 问题资产救助计划降低了还是增加了系统风险?政府救助对金融体系稳定的影响
Pub Date : 2019-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2844817
Allen N. Berger, Raluca A. Roman, John Sedunov
Theory suggests that government aid to banks may either reduce or increase systemic risk. We are the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks, and those in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel that reduced market leverage by increasing the value of common equity. Results are robust to endogeneity and selection bias checks. Findings yield policy conclusions about whether to aid banks, the best targets for future assistance, and short-term versus long-term effects.
理论上,政府对银行的援助可能会减少或增加系统性风险。通过分析问题资产救助计划(TARP),我们率先从经验上解决了这个问题。分析表明,问题资产救助计划显著降低了对系统性风险的贡献,尤其是对规模更大、更安全的银行,以及地方经济状况较好的银行。这主要是通过资本缓冲渠道实现的,该渠道通过增加普通股的价值来降低市场杠杆。结果对内生性和选择偏差检查是稳健的。研究结果得出了关于是否援助银行、未来援助的最佳目标以及短期与长期影响的政策结论。
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引用次数: 91
Coin-Operated Capitalism 投币式资本主义
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3215345
Shaanan N. Cohney, David Hoffman, Jeremy M. Sklaroff, David A. Wishnick
This Article presents the legal literature’s first detailed analysis of the inner workings of Initial Coin Offerings. We characterize the ICO as an example of financial innovation, placing it in kinship with venture capital contracting, asset securitization, and (obviously) the IPO. We also take the form seriously as an example of technological innovation, where promoters are beginning to effectuate their promises to investors through computer code, rather than traditional contract. To understand the dynamics of this shift, we first collect contracts, “white papers,” and other contract-like documents for the fifty top-grossing ICOs of 2017. We then analyze how such projects’ software code reflected (or failed to reflect) their contractual promises. Our inquiry reveals that many ICOs failed even to promise that they would protect investors against insider self-dealing. Fewer still manifested such contracts in code. Surprisingly, in a community known for espousing a technolibertarian belief in the power of “trustless trust” built with carefully designed code, a significant fraction of issuers retained centralized control through previously undisclosed code permitting modification of the entities’ governing structures. These findings offer valuable lessons to legal scholars, economists, and policymakers about the roles played by gatekeepers; about the value of regulation; and the possibilities for socially valuable private ordering in a relatively anonymous, decentralized environment.
本文介绍了法律文献的首次详细分析的内部运作的首次代币发行。我们将ICO描述为金融创新的一个例子,将其与风险投资合同、资产证券化以及(显然)IPO联系在一起。我们也把这种形式作为技术创新的一个例子来认真对待,发起人开始通过计算机代码而不是传统的合同来实现他们对投资者的承诺。为了了解这种转变的动态,我们首先收集了2017年50个最赚钱的ico的合同、“白皮书”和其他类似合同的文件。然后我们分析这些项目的软件代码是如何反映(或未能反映)它们的合同承诺的。我们的调查显示,许多ico甚至没有承诺他们会保护投资者免受内幕交易的侵害。更少的人在代码中表现出这样的契约。令人惊讶的是,在一个以支持技术自由主义信念而闻名的社区中,通过精心设计的代码构建的“无需信任的信任”的力量,很大一部分发行人通过先前未公开的代码保留了集中控制,允许修改实体的治理结构。这些发现为法律学者、经济学家和政策制定者提供了关于看门人所扮演角色的宝贵经验;关于规制的价值;以及在一个相对匿名、去中心化的环境中,有社会价值的私人订购的可能性。
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引用次数: 68
期刊
Corporate Law: Law & Finance eJournal
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