We compute the Fama-French and momentum factor returns for the Indian equity market for the October 1993 - December 2013 period using data from CMIE Prowess. We differ from the previous studies on this topic, in the Indian market, in several significant ways. First, we cover a greater number of firms relative to the existing studies. Second, we exclude illiquid firms to ensure that the portfolios are investible. Third, we have classified firms into small and big using more appropriate cut-off considering the distribution of firm size. Fourth, as there are several instances of vanishing of public companies in India, we have computed the returns with a correction for survival bias. During the period from January 1994 to December 2014, the average annual return of the momentum factor was 21.9%; the average annual return on the value portfolio (HML was 15.3%; that of the size factor (SMB) was 15.3%; that of the size factor (SMB) nearly 0%; and the the average annual excess return on the market factor (MRP) was 11.5%. This is a revised version of our earlier paper on this topic. The revision is carried out to primarily accommodate the data of firms which are retrospectively added to the prowess database by CMIE. The time series of daily, monthly and yearly returns of the factors and the underlying portfolios are made available at an online data library. The authors would update the library on a monthly basis.
{"title":"Four Factor Model in Indian Equities Market","authors":"Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla, Joshy Jacob, J. Varma","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2334482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2334482","url":null,"abstract":"We compute the Fama-French and momentum factor returns for the Indian equity market for the October 1993 - December 2013 period using data from CMIE Prowess. We differ from the previous studies on this topic, in the Indian market, in several significant ways. First, we cover a greater number of firms relative to the existing studies. Second, we exclude illiquid firms to ensure that the portfolios are investible. Third, we have classified firms into small and big using more appropriate cut-off considering the distribution of firm size. Fourth, as there are several instances of vanishing of public companies in India, we have computed the returns with a correction for survival bias. During the period from January 1994 to December 2014, the average annual return of the momentum factor was 21.9%; the average annual return on the value portfolio (HML was 15.3%; that of the size factor (SMB) was 15.3%; that of the size factor (SMB) nearly 0%; and the the average annual excess return on the market factor (MRP) was 11.5%. This is a revised version of our earlier paper on this topic. The revision is carried out to primarily accommodate the data of firms which are retrospectively added to the prowess database by CMIE. The time series of daily, monthly and yearly returns of the factors and the underlying portfolios are made available at an online data library. The authors would update the library on a monthly basis.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125223836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study tests the validity of asset pricing model conditional on up and down market for emerging market of Pakistan. The results indicate that when emerging market undergoes negative market excess return, basic capital asset pricing model is inaccurate to predict stock returns. Although the conditional asset pricing model accurately predicts the risk-return trade off with beta as sole determinant of stock returns when there is up market, however yet it is significantly variant during down market where significant impact of residuals is evinced on stock returns. The market excess returns of up and down markets are also found asymmetric.
{"title":"Asset Pricing Model Conditional on Up and Down Market for Emerging Market: The Case of Pakistan","authors":"Nida Shah, Javaid Ali Dars, M. Haroon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2495827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2495827","url":null,"abstract":"This study tests the validity of asset pricing model conditional on up and down market for emerging market of Pakistan. The results indicate that when emerging market undergoes negative market excess return, basic capital asset pricing model is inaccurate to predict stock returns. Although the conditional asset pricing model accurately predicts the risk-return trade off with beta as sole determinant of stock returns when there is up market, however yet it is significantly variant during down market where significant impact of residuals is evinced on stock returns. The market excess returns of up and down markets are also found asymmetric.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116458028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christophe J. Godlewski, Rima Turk-Ariss, L. Weill
Sukuk, the shari’a-compliant alternative mode of financing to conventional bonds, have considerably expanded over the last decade. We analyze the stock market reaction to two key features of this instrument: sukuk type and characteristics of the shari’a scholar certifying the issue. We use the event study methodology to measure abnormal returns for a sample of 131 sukuk from eight countries over the period 2006–2013 and find that Ijara sukuk structures exert a positive influence on the stock price of the issuing firm. We observe a similar positive impact from shari’a scholar reputation and proximity to issuer. Overall our results support the hypotheses that the type of sukuk and the choice of scholars hired to certify these securities matter for the market valuation of the issuing company.
{"title":"Do the Type of Sukuk and Choice of Shari’a Scholar Matter?","authors":"Christophe J. Godlewski, Rima Turk-Ariss, L. Weill","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2537420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2537420","url":null,"abstract":"Sukuk, the shari’a-compliant alternative mode of financing to conventional bonds, have considerably expanded over the last decade. We analyze the stock market reaction to two key features of this instrument: sukuk type and characteristics of the shari’a scholar certifying the issue. We use the event study methodology to measure abnormal returns for a sample of 131 sukuk from eight countries over the period 2006–2013 and find that Ijara sukuk structures exert a positive influence on the stock price of the issuing firm. We observe a similar positive impact from shari’a scholar reputation and proximity to issuer. Overall our results support the hypotheses that the type of sukuk and the choice of scholars hired to certify these securities matter for the market valuation of the issuing company.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126194973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-06-19DOI: 10.11648/J.JIM.20130205.11
Najeb Masoud, Glenn Hardaker
This study investigates empirically into the acclaimed positive role played financial market leading growth, with evidence from the Jordan financial market. Utilising, several econometric techniques models, such as unit root test, co-integration test and formal tests of causality developed by C.J. Granger and yearly Jordan data for the period 1980-2012. Results show that both Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration test support the view that there is a short-run and long- run relationship between financial market development and economic growth in Jordan. On the other hand, there was no evidence to support the view that financial market in Jordan is a leading sector in the process of the country's economic development. In particular, the causality relationship between financial market development and economic growth in Jordan is bi-directional. Higher development in the financial market causes higher real economic growth. High economic growth in turn promotes development in the financial market. This study's results will be useful in reaching policy decisions to develop financial markets to increase economic growth in developing countries or/ emerging economies, in general, and within Jordan, in particular. Furthermore, providing empirical evidence regarding this critical issue within specific emerging economies will add to the literature on financial market related to the role of financial market development and its influence on economic growth and, thus, initiate an exciting topic for research.
{"title":"Do Financial Market Lead to Economic Growth? A Causality Test in Jordan","authors":"Najeb Masoud, Glenn Hardaker","doi":"10.11648/J.JIM.20130205.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11648/J.JIM.20130205.11","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates empirically into the acclaimed positive role played financial market leading growth, with evidence from the Jordan financial market. Utilising, several econometric techniques models, such as unit root test, co-integration test and formal tests of causality developed by C.J. Granger and yearly Jordan data for the period 1980-2012. Results show that both Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration test support the view that there is a short-run and long- run relationship between financial market development and economic growth in Jordan. On the other hand, there was no evidence to support the view that financial market in Jordan is a leading sector in the process of the country's economic development. In particular, the causality relationship between financial market development and economic growth in Jordan is bi-directional. Higher development in the financial market causes higher real economic growth. High economic growth in turn promotes development in the financial market. This study's results will be useful in reaching policy decisions to develop financial markets to increase economic growth in developing countries or/ emerging economies, in general, and within Jordan, in particular. Furthermore, providing empirical evidence regarding this critical issue within specific emerging economies will add to the literature on financial market related to the role of financial market development and its influence on economic growth and, thus, initiate an exciting topic for research.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"518 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116239941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This was the first paper to study exclusively the effects of Ramadan on the United Arab Emirates Stock market. In doing so, the study aims to establish such impacts with the intention of advising the investors on whether it would be profitable to invest during the holy month of Ramadan or no.The study found that the average returns for banks in ADX, and DFM in Ramadan is less than the usual average in the period 2008-2013. Similarly, the foretasted return using regression. This result reflect the economy slow down during Ramadan as mentioned in literature review, the percentage of slowing down about 0.98%. This slow down percentage demonstrates the hypothesis of Ramadan effect, so the investors can gain profit if they follow recommended days, and dates.
{"title":"Ramadan Effect on UAE Stock Market - Banks Sector","authors":"Musab Alatiyat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2449967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2449967","url":null,"abstract":"This was the first paper to study exclusively the effects of Ramadan on the United Arab Emirates Stock market. In doing so, the study aims to establish such impacts with the intention of advising the investors on whether it would be profitable to invest during the holy month of Ramadan or no.The study found that the average returns for banks in ADX, and DFM in Ramadan is less than the usual average in the period 2008-2013. Similarly, the foretasted return using regression. This result reflect the economy slow down during Ramadan as mentioned in literature review, the percentage of slowing down about 0.98%. This slow down percentage demonstrates the hypothesis of Ramadan effect, so the investors can gain profit if they follow recommended days, and dates.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127250514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Political instability of several countries in the Middle East is overshadowing one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming century: Water - a natural resource that is easily taken for granted, but whose scarcity might lead to serious conflicts. This paper investigates an optimal Water Allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivershed by introducing the WATER-Model. A series of scenarios are analyzed to examine the effects of different levels of cooperation for an optimal water allocation. Special emphasize is put on the effects of filling new Turkish reservoirs which can cause additional welfare losses if these actions are not done on a basin-wide coordinated basis. Modeling results show that Turkey is most efficient in its water usage. However, using the water for irrigation purposes in Turkey, instead of the Iraqi or Syrian domestic and industrial sector, decreases the overall welfare. Especially the Euphrates basin might thus encounter losses of up to 33% due to such strategic behaviour. The predicted water demand growth in the region is going to increase this water scarcity further. Minimum flow treaties between riparian countries, however, can help to increase the overall welfare and should therefore be fostered.
{"title":"WATER-Model: An Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in Turkey, Syria and Iraq","authors":"P. oei, Markus Siehlow","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2440711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2440711","url":null,"abstract":"Political instability of several countries in the Middle East is overshadowing one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming century: Water - a natural resource that is easily taken for granted, but whose scarcity might lead to serious conflicts. This paper investigates an optimal Water Allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivershed by introducing the WATER-Model. A series of scenarios are analyzed to examine the effects of different levels of cooperation for an optimal water allocation. Special emphasize is put on the effects of filling new Turkish reservoirs which can cause additional welfare losses if these actions are not done on a basin-wide coordinated basis. Modeling results show that Turkey is most efficient in its water usage. However, using the water for irrigation purposes in Turkey, instead of the Iraqi or Syrian domestic and industrial sector, decreases the overall welfare. Especially the Euphrates basin might thus encounter losses of up to 33% due to such strategic behaviour. The predicted water demand growth in the region is going to increase this water scarcity further. Minimum flow treaties between riparian countries, however, can help to increase the overall welfare and should therefore be fostered.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124967537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using 9559 single jumps detected from high frequency data of 220 individual stocks in SZ300P index, the paper investigates the liquidity dynamics around price jumps in Chinese market. By event study method and regression method, some interesting empirical results are obtained. The trading volumes at the price jumps are extraordinarily high, in particular at the positive price jumps, and the buyer-initiated trades contribute more to price volatilities. These may be associated with the high proportion of retail investors and their herding behavior for price chasing. Some evidences from the limit order book at jumps may reveal existence of plenty of informed trading, e.g., the order depth is quite large even 30 minutes before jumps, the occurrence of price jumps needs a quite thick limit order book, and price jumps consume the liquidity at a fast speed. The price reversal after price jumps is significant, and the volume and depth dynamics both contribute to the price reversal effect. Moreover, the size and direction of jumps are significantly correlated with the returns and trades in the post-jump trading time. The findings could be explained as the joint effect of herding behavior and informed trading. All these results may suggest that Chinese stock market need make a great effort to enforce its market discipline, and reform its trading regime.
{"title":"Price Jumps and the Related Liquidity Dynamics: Evidences from Chinese Stock Market","authors":"Die Wan, Xianhua Wei, Xiaoguang Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2421106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2421106","url":null,"abstract":"Using 9559 single jumps detected from high frequency data of 220 individual stocks in SZ300P index, the paper investigates the liquidity dynamics around price jumps in Chinese market. By event study method and regression method, some interesting empirical results are obtained. The trading volumes at the price jumps are extraordinarily high, in particular at the positive price jumps, and the buyer-initiated trades contribute more to price volatilities. These may be associated with the high proportion of retail investors and their herding behavior for price chasing. Some evidences from the limit order book at jumps may reveal existence of plenty of informed trading, e.g., the order depth is quite large even 30 minutes before jumps, the occurrence of price jumps needs a quite thick limit order book, and price jumps consume the liquidity at a fast speed. The price reversal after price jumps is significant, and the volume and depth dynamics both contribute to the price reversal effect. Moreover, the size and direction of jumps are significantly correlated with the returns and trades in the post-jump trading time. The findings could be explained as the joint effect of herding behavior and informed trading. All these results may suggest that Chinese stock market need make a great effort to enforce its market discipline, and reform its trading regime.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115593293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the interdependence of China’s policy uncertainty, the global oil market, and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market specific demand significantly raise China’s economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index the interdependence between these variables is rising since 2003 as China’s influence in the oil market increases. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the U.S. is smaller and largely flat over time.
{"title":"Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns","authors":"Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2423165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2423165","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the interdependence of China’s policy uncertainty, the global oil market, and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market specific demand significantly raise China’s economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index the interdependence between these variables is rising since 2003 as China’s influence in the oil market increases. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the U.S. is smaller and largely flat over time.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122742357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of optimal investment for shareholders by using the utility-indifference pricing theory. The marginal value of cash holdings is measured in shareholder’s marginal utility of cash. The model predicts that the marginal value of cash varies negatively with the stock price, and positively with the volatility of the stock price. We then test this model using a sample of 453 Chinese Listed Companies from 1999 to 2012. Consistent with the model, we find the same quantitative relationship between the marginal value of cash and the stock price, the volatility of the stock price. The effect may offer a new method to predict the changes of stock price in practice. Our conclusions may also support that cash holdings are more valuable for financially constrained firms than unconstrained firms.
{"title":"Cash Value and Stock Price","authors":"Yanyang Yan, Qiao Sijia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2516250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2516250","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of optimal investment for shareholders by using the utility-indifference pricing theory. The marginal value of cash holdings is measured in shareholder’s marginal utility of cash. The model predicts that the marginal value of cash varies negatively with the stock price, and positively with the volatility of the stock price. We then test this model using a sample of 453 Chinese Listed Companies from 1999 to 2012. Consistent with the model, we find the same quantitative relationship between the marginal value of cash and the stock price, the volatility of the stock price. The effect may offer a new method to predict the changes of stock price in practice. Our conclusions may also support that cash holdings are more valuable for financially constrained firms than unconstrained firms.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125274749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China is the largest emerging market and attracts a great deal of attention from investors and researchers worldwide. The Fama-French three-factor model is the outcome of decades of research on U.S. stock returns. To what extent the three factors explain the variation in Chinese stock returns is an intriguing question. This paper documents empirical evidence on this issue and identifies some pitfalls that arise in the application of the three-factor model to Chinese stock returns. We find that several special features in China affect the three factors considerably and also influence the explanatory power of the three-factor model.
{"title":"The Fama-French Three Factors in Chinese Stock Market","authors":"J. Xu, Shaojun Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2367908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2367908","url":null,"abstract":"China is the largest emerging market and attracts a great deal of attention from investors and researchers worldwide. The Fama-French three-factor model is the outcome of decades of research on U.S. stock returns. To what extent the three factors explain the variation in Chinese stock returns is an intriguing question. This paper documents empirical evidence on this issue and identifies some pitfalls that arise in the application of the three-factor model to Chinese stock returns. We find that several special features in China affect the three factors considerably and also influence the explanatory power of the three-factor model.","PeriodicalId":108284,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Financial Markets - Emerging Markets eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115421073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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