Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, N. Perevalov
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance. IMPACT divides the world economy into six regions: United States, the euro area, Japan, China, oil-importing emerging-market economies and oil-exporting rest of the world. The model features a rich set of cross-border trade and financial linkages that have been shown in the literature to be crucial to explaining global co-movements in business cycles. It is also globally consistent in the sense that both net foreign assets and net exports must be equal to zero at the global level. These cross-region linkages and the global stock-flow consistency allow IMPACT to generate a rigorous and more complete picture of the evolution of the global economy to better inform policy.
{"title":"IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity","authors":"Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, N. Perevalov","doi":"10.34989/TR-116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34989/TR-116","url":null,"abstract":"We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance. IMPACT divides the world economy into six regions: United States, the euro area, Japan, China, oil-importing emerging-market economies and oil-exporting rest of the world. The model features a rich set of cross-border trade and financial linkages that have been shown in the literature to be crucial to explaining global co-movements in business cycles. It is also globally consistent in the sense that both net foreign assets and net exports must be equal to zero at the global level. These cross-region linkages and the global stock-flow consistency allow IMPACT to generate a rigorous and more complete picture of the evolution of the global economy to better inform policy.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88898979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Steve Taylor, B. Pickering, P. Grace, M. Boniface, V. Bakir, D. Boyd, Sven Engesser, R. Epstein, N. Fawzi, Philip M. Fernbach, D. Fisher, B. Gardner, Kristof Jacobs, S. Jacobson, Benjamin Krmer, A. Kucharski, Andrew McStay, H. Mercier, Miriam J. Metzger, Francesca Polletta, Walter Quattrociocchi, S. Sloman, D. Sperber, C. Spierings, C. Wardle, Fabiana Zollo, A. Zubiaga
The Internet provides fast and ubiquitous communication that enables all kinds of communities and provides citizens with easy access to vast amounts of information, although the information is not necessarily verified and may present a distorted view of real events or facts. The Internet’s power as an instant source of mass information can be used to influence opinions, which can have far-reaching consequences. This report’s purpose is to provide input into the advisory processes that determine European support for research into the effects and management of Fake News (e.g. deliberate misinformation), Echo Chambers (e.g. closed communities where biases can be reinforced through lack of diversity in opinions), and the Internet’s influence on social and political movements such as Populism; to provide insight into how innovation that takes these aspects into account can be supported. To address this aim, this report concerns socio-technical implications of the Internet related to the impact of closed communities and misinformation and makes recommendations derived from a consultation with domain experts concerning the research needed to address specific challenges. This study has used the Delphi Method, an iterative consultation mechanism aimed at consensus building within a targeted panel of experts. Three rounds of iteration were undertaken and a total of fourteen experts participated in all three rounds. The result of the consultation is 67 assertion statements that reached consensus amongst the experts in five broad themes, and these are presented in this report and summarised into key recommendations. The key overarching recommendation is that we need to understand how opinions are formed and are influenced in the current digital age. Investigations are needed to understand the underlying cognitive and emotional processes that enable peoples’ opinions to be influenced in the context of a hybrid media system that mixes online and offline channels and broadcast and interactive social media.
{"title":"Opinion forming in the digital age","authors":"Steve Taylor, B. Pickering, P. Grace, M. Boniface, V. Bakir, D. Boyd, Sven Engesser, R. Epstein, N. Fawzi, Philip M. Fernbach, D. Fisher, B. Gardner, Kristof Jacobs, S. Jacobson, Benjamin Krmer, A. Kucharski, Andrew McStay, H. Mercier, Miriam J. Metzger, Francesca Polletta, Walter Quattrociocchi, S. Sloman, D. Sperber, C. Spierings, C. Wardle, Fabiana Zollo, A. Zubiaga","doi":"10.5281/ZENODO.1468575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1468575","url":null,"abstract":"The Internet provides fast and ubiquitous communication that enables all kinds of communities and provides citizens with easy access to vast amounts of information, although the information is not necessarily verified and may present a distorted view of real events or facts. The Internet’s power as an instant source of mass information can be used to influence opinions, which can have far-reaching consequences. This report’s purpose is to provide input into the advisory processes that determine European support for research into the effects and management of Fake News (e.g. deliberate misinformation), Echo Chambers (e.g. closed communities where biases can be reinforced through lack of diversity in opinions), and the Internet’s influence on social and political movements such as Populism; to provide insight into how innovation that takes these aspects into account can be supported. To address this aim, this report concerns socio-technical implications of the Internet related to the impact of closed communities and misinformation and makes recommendations derived from a consultation with domain experts concerning the research needed to address specific challenges. This study has used the Delphi Method, an iterative consultation mechanism aimed at consensus building within a targeted panel of experts. Three rounds of iteration were undertaken and a total of fourteen experts participated in all three rounds. The result of the consultation is 67 assertion statements that reached consensus amongst the experts in five broad themes, and these are presented in this report and summarised into key recommendations. The key overarching recommendation is that we need to understand how opinions are formed and are influenced in the current digital age. Investigations are needed to understand the underlying cognitive and emotional processes that enable peoples’ opinions to be influenced in the context of a hybrid media system that mixes online and offline channels and broadcast and interactive social media.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83545242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Vouk, Richard S. Burcher, C. Johnston, R. W. Jenkinson, D. Saad, John Gaiot, Glenn A. Benoy, D. Robertson, M. T. Laitta
Vous avez des questions? Nous pouvons vous aider. Pour communiquer directement avec un auteur, consultez la première page de la revue dans laquelle son article a été publié afin de trouver ses coordonnées. Si vous n’arrivez pas à les repérer, communiquez avec nous à PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca. Questions? Contact the NRC Publications Archive team at PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca. If you wish to email the authors directly, please see the first page of the publication for their contact information. https://publications-cnrc.canada.ca/fra/droits L’accès à ce site Web et l’utilisation de son contenu sont assujettis aux conditions présentées dans le site
{"title":"Geospatial data for developing nutrient SPARROW models for the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States","authors":"I. Vouk, Richard S. Burcher, C. Johnston, R. W. Jenkinson, D. Saad, John Gaiot, Glenn A. Benoy, D. Robertson, M. T. Laitta","doi":"10.4224/23004810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4224/23004810","url":null,"abstract":"Vous avez des questions? Nous pouvons vous aider. Pour communiquer directement avec un auteur, consultez la première page de la revue dans laquelle son article a été publié afin de trouver ses coordonnées. Si vous n’arrivez pas à les repérer, communiquez avec nous à PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca. Questions? Contact the NRC Publications Archive team at PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca. If you wish to email the authors directly, please see the first page of the publication for their contact information. https://publications-cnrc.canada.ca/fra/droits L’accès à ce site Web et l’utilisation de son contenu sont assujettis aux conditions présentées dans le site","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84764155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-01DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000262165
P. Bergamo, D. Faeh
{"title":"Development of site-specific elastic design spectra for future building codes, Part 1: an updated classification of empirical amplification functions","authors":"P. Bergamo, D. Faeh","doi":"10.3929/ETHZ-B-000262165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000262165","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85738778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract : India possesses a rich history of combating insurgencies throughout its country. The Naxalite movement originated when India gained its independence and now seventy years later presents the greatest insurgency threat. India also experienced a pivotal counterinsurgency experience as a third party actor in Sri Lanka. This research study sought to compare the influence of India's external counterinsurgency approaches in Sri Lanka to their domestic approaches against the Naxalites. The methodology for this research consists of analyzing each case study for the appearance or absence of twenty-four counterinsurgency approaches. This research found no evidence of counterinsurgency operations in Sri Lanka influencing future domestic counterinsurgency operations against the Naxalites. The major counterinsurgency findings include the necessity to enact political reform; to reduce insurgent support; to recruit, train, and employ local security forces; to co-opt the population; and to achieve unity of effort.
{"title":"Comparing India's Counterinsurgency Approaches in Sri Lanka and Against the Naxalites","authors":"Jason M Wingeart","doi":"10.21236/ad1001927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21236/ad1001927","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract : India possesses a rich history of combating insurgencies throughout its country. The Naxalite movement originated when India gained its independence and now seventy years later presents the greatest insurgency threat. India also experienced a pivotal counterinsurgency experience as a third party actor in Sri Lanka. This research study sought to compare the influence of India's external counterinsurgency approaches in Sri Lanka to their domestic approaches against the Naxalites. The methodology for this research consists of analyzing each case study for the appearance or absence of twenty-four counterinsurgency approaches. This research found no evidence of counterinsurgency operations in Sri Lanka influencing future domestic counterinsurgency operations against the Naxalites. The major counterinsurgency findings include the necessity to enact political reform; to reduce insurgent support; to recruit, train, and employ local security forces; to co-opt the population; and to achieve unity of effort.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80993455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Curtis, M. Kohler, R. Kannappan, M. Briggs, F. Day‐Lewis
Reactive solute transport in aquifers is commonly affected by rate limited mass transfer. This slow mass transfer can exhibit significant control on the times required to restore contaminated aquifers to near-pristine conditions under both ambient and forced-gradient flow systems and is therefore important to understand. Both nonreactive and reactive tracer experiments provide valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. At the grain scale and column scale, mass transfer limitations were manifested as a concentration rebound when contaminated sediments were contacted with pristine groundwater. This behavior was successfully modeled using the multirate mass transfer model. Mass transfer observed in a 2 m long intermediate laboratory scale experiment showed significant concentration rebound in the first half meter along a flowpath through the tank and negligible rebound near the exit of the tank. Experimental observations and model simulations show that although concentration rebound was small at the end of the tank, the overall elution of uranium from of the tank was still controlled by mass transfer which was manifested by a long tail. At the field scale, mass transfer parameters inferred from geo-electrical measurements of bulk conductivity and traditional conductivity measurements of fluid samples showed significant spatial variability.more » Overall the improved understanding of mass transfer across multiple scales should lead to more robust reactive transport simulations and site management.« less
{"title":"Upscaling of U (VI) desorption and transport from decimeter‐scale heterogeneity to plume‐scale modeling","authors":"G. Curtis, M. Kohler, R. Kannappan, M. Briggs, F. Day‐Lewis","doi":"10.2172/1170615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2172/1170615","url":null,"abstract":"Reactive solute transport in aquifers is commonly affected by rate limited mass transfer. This slow mass transfer can exhibit significant control on the times required to restore contaminated aquifers to near-pristine conditions under both ambient and forced-gradient flow systems and is therefore important to understand. Both nonreactive and reactive tracer experiments provide valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. At the grain scale and column scale, mass transfer limitations were manifested as a concentration rebound when contaminated sediments were contacted with pristine groundwater. This behavior was successfully modeled using the multirate mass transfer model. Mass transfer observed in a 2 m long intermediate laboratory scale experiment showed significant concentration rebound in the first half meter along a flowpath through the tank and negligible rebound near the exit of the tank. Experimental observations and model simulations show that although concentration rebound was small at the end of the tank, the overall elution of uranium from of the tank was still controlled by mass transfer which was manifested by a long tail. At the field scale, mass transfer parameters inferred from geo-electrical measurements of bulk conductivity and traditional conductivity measurements of fluid samples showed significant spatial variability.more » Overall the improved understanding of mass transfer across multiple scales should lead to more robust reactive transport simulations and site management.« less","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87979056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Goodness of fit procedures are essential tools for assessing model adequacy in statistics. In this work, we present a general theory and approach to goodness of fit techniques based on U-processes for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Many of the examples will focus on U-statistics of order 2. While many authors have proposed goodness of fit tests for U-statistics of order one, less has been developed for higher order U-statistics. In this paper, we propose goodness of fit tests for U-statistics of order 2 by using theoretical results from Nolan and Pollard (1987) and Nolan and Pollard (1988). We propose a resampling approach which is a generalization of that proposed in Lin et al. (1996). Simulation studies are used to illustrate the proposed methods.
拟合优度程序是评估统计模型充分性的基本工具。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种基于加速失效时间(AFT)模型的u过程拟合优度技术的一般理论和方法。许多示例将集中于阶为2的u统计量。虽然许多作者提出了一阶u统计量的拟合优度检验，但对高阶u统计量的拟合优度检验却很少。本文利用Nolan and Pollard(1987)和Nolan and Pollard(1988)的理论结果，提出了二阶u统计量的拟合优度检验。我们提出了一种重采样方法，这是Lin等人(1996)提出的方法的概括。仿真研究用于说明所提出的方法。
{"title":"A general approach to goodness of fit for U processes","authors":"D. Ghosh, Youngjoo Cho","doi":"10.5705/SS.202014.0141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5705/SS.202014.0141","url":null,"abstract":"Goodness of fit procedures are essential tools for assessing model adequacy in statistics. In this work, we present a general theory and approach to goodness of fit techniques based on U-processes for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Many of the examples will focus on U-statistics of order 2. While many authors have proposed goodness of fit tests for U-statistics of order one, less has been developed for higher order U-statistics. In this paper, we propose goodness of fit tests for U-statistics of order 2 by using theoretical results from Nolan and Pollard (1987) and Nolan and Pollard (1988). We propose a resampling approach which is a generalization of that proposed in Lin et al. (1996). Simulation studies are used to illustrate the proposed methods.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81817472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-01-01DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-A-010469841
C. Favre, H. Völzer, Peter Müller
A workflow graph is a classical flow graph extended by concurrent fork and join. Workflow graphs can be used to represent the main control-flow of e.g. business process models modeled in languages such as BPMN or UML activity diagrams. They can also be seen as compact representations of free-choice Petri nets with a unique start and a unique end. A workflow graph is said to be sound if it is free of deadlocks and exhibits no lack of synchronization, which correspond to liveness and safeness of a slightly modified version of the corresponding Petri net. We present a new characterization of unsoundness of workflow graphs in terms of three structural, i.e., graphical error patterns. We also present a polynomialtime algorithm that decides unsoundness and returns for each unsound workflow graph, one of the three structural error patterns as diagnostic information. An experimental evaluation on over 1350 workflow graphs derived from industrial business process models suggests that our technique performs well in practice.
{"title":"Diagnostic Information for Control-Flow Analysis of Workflow Graphs (aka Free-ChoiceWorkflow Nets)","authors":"C. Favre, H. Völzer, Peter Müller","doi":"10.3929/ETHZ-A-010469841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-A-010469841","url":null,"abstract":"A workflow graph is a classical flow graph extended by concurrent fork and join. Workflow graphs can be used to represent the main control-flow of e.g. business process models modeled in languages such as BPMN or UML activity diagrams. They can also be seen as compact representations of free-choice Petri nets with a unique start and a unique end. A workflow graph is said to be sound if it is free of deadlocks and exhibits no lack of synchronization, which correspond to liveness and safeness of a slightly modified version of the corresponding Petri net. We present a new characterization of unsoundness of workflow graphs in terms of three structural, i.e., graphical error patterns. We also present a polynomialtime algorithm that decides unsoundness and returns for each unsound workflow graph, one of the three structural error patterns as diagnostic information. An experimental evaluation on over 1350 workflow graphs derived from industrial business process models suggests that our technique performs well in practice.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89631156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This product represents a USGS Administrative Report that discusses samples and methods used to conduct uranium-series isotope analyses and resulting ages and initial 234U/238U activity ratios of pedogenic cements developed in several different surfaces in the Hanford area middle to late Pleistocene. Samples were collected and dated to provide calibration of soil development in surface deposits that are being used in the Hanford Site-Wide probabilistic seismic hazard analysis conducted by AMEC. The report includes description of sample locations and physical characteristics, sample preparation, chemical processing and mass spectrometry, analytical results, and calculated ages for individual sites. Ages of innermost rinds on a number of samples from five sites in eastern Washington are consistent with a range of minimum depositional ages from 17 ka for cataclysmic flood deposits to greater than 500 ka for alluvium at several sites.
{"title":"230Th/U ages Supporting Hanford Site‐Wide Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis","authors":"J. Paces","doi":"10.2172/1128696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2172/1128696","url":null,"abstract":"This product represents a USGS Administrative Report that discusses samples and methods used to conduct uranium-series isotope analyses and resulting ages and initial 234U/238U activity ratios of pedogenic cements developed in several different surfaces in the Hanford area middle to late Pleistocene. Samples were collected and dated to provide calibration of soil development in surface deposits that are being used in the Hanford Site-Wide probabilistic seismic hazard analysis conducted by AMEC. The report includes description of sample locations and physical characteristics, sample preparation, chemical processing and mass spectrometry, analytical results, and calculated ages for individual sites. Ages of innermost rinds on a number of samples from five sites in eastern Washington are consistent with a range of minimum depositional ages from 17 ka for cataclysmic flood deposits to greater than 500 ka for alluvium at several sites.","PeriodicalId":10841,"journal":{"name":"CTIT technical reports series","volume":"70 2 1","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72651922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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