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Advanced Modeling of Production Induced Pressure Depletion and Well Spacing Impact on Infill Wells in Spraberry, Permian Basin 二叠纪Spraberry盆地生产压力衰竭及井距影响的先进建模
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191696-MS
Tao Xu, G. Lindsay, Wei Zheng, Q. Yan, K. Patron, Farhan Alimahomed, M. Panjaitan, R. Malpani
Since early 2016, commodity prices have been gradually increasing, and the Permian Basin has become the most active basin for unconventional horizontal well development. As the plays in the basin are developed, new infill wells are drilled near pre-existing wells (known as "parent wells"). The impact of pressure depletion caused by adjacent existing producers may have a larger role in the performance of these new infill wells. How the various well spacing impact with the degree of reservoir pressure depletion from parent well is more important than ever for operators to optimize the completion design. Through data analytics and comprehensive fracture/reservoir modeling this paper studies how changes in well spacing and proppant volume in the Spraberry, a main formation in the Permian Basin, will impact new infill well performance. The studies in this paper are focused on the Midland Basin. A public database was used to identify the number of parent and child wells in the Midland basin. Data analysis of production normalized by total proppant and lateral length shows that parent wells outperform infill, or child, wells. To further understand the relationship between parent and child wells, a reservoir dataset for the Spraberry formation was used to build a hydraulic fracture and reservoir simulation model for both the parent well and a two-well infill pad. After production history matching a P50 type well as the parent well, three periods of production depletion were modeled (6 months, 3 years and 5 years) to understand the timing impact on the infill well production. A geomechanical finite-element model (FEM) was then used to quantify the changes to the magnitude and azimuth of the in-situ stresses from the various reservoir depletion scenarios. A two-well infill pad was then simulated into the altered stress field next to the parent well at various spacings between the parent and child wells. A sensitivity was then performed with different stimulation job sizes to understand the volume impact on created complex fracture propagation and total system recovery. This study can help operators understand how well spacing, reservoir depletion, and completion job size impact the infill well performance so they can optimize their infill well completion strategy.
2016年初以来,大宗商品价格逐渐上涨,二叠纪盆地成为非常规水平井开发最活跃的盆地。随着盆地内储层的开发,新的填充井在原有井(称为“母井”)附近钻探。邻近现有生产商造成的压力枯竭的影响可能会对这些新填充井的性能产生更大的影响。对于作业者优化完井设计而言,不同井距对母井压力枯竭程度的影响比以往任何时候都更为重要。通过数据分析和综合裂缝/油藏建模,本文研究了二叠纪盆地主要地层Spraberry井距和支撑剂体积的变化对新填充井性能的影响。本文的研究主要集中在米德兰盆地。使用一个公共数据库来确定Midland盆地的父井和子井的数量。根据总支撑剂和水平段长度对产量进行归一化的数据分析表明,母井的产量优于填充井或子井。为了进一步了解父井和子井之间的关系,研究人员利用Spraberry地层的油藏数据集,建立了父井和两口井的水力裂缝和油藏模拟模型。在将P50型井的生产历史与母井匹配后,对3个生产枯竭期(6个月、3年和5年)进行了建模,以了解时间对填充井生产的影响。然后使用地质力学有限元模型(FEM)来量化各种油藏枯竭情景下地应力的大小和方位角的变化。然后,在母井和子井之间的不同间距处,将两口井的填充垫块模拟到母井旁边改变的应力场中。然后对不同增产作业规模进行敏感性测试,以了解体积对生成的复杂裂缝扩展和系统总采收率的影响。该研究可以帮助作业者了解井距、油藏枯竭和完井作业规模对填充井性能的影响,从而优化其填充井完井策略。
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引用次数: 3
Quantifying the Probability of Success of Stimulation Treatments When Information is Limited 信息有限时刺激治疗成功概率的量化
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191753-MS
T. Hoeink, D. Cotrell, Elijah Odusina, Sachin Ghorpade
A paradigm shift in dealing with subsurface uncertainty in hydraulic fracturing treatments is introduced. The mathematically rigorous application of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for a proposed stimulation of a lateral well within an unconventional reservoir in the Marcellus with limited formation data delivers the ability to identify the optimum treatment parameters and to quantify its probability of success. Selection of the optimum reservoir stimulation treatment is achieved by systematically investigating thousands of hydraulic fracture simulations over a large parameter space covering formation properties with inherent uncertainties (e.g., stress gradients, leak-off coefficients) and tunable treatment parameters (e.g. pumping rates, fluid and proppant properties, perforation spacing), and computing an objective function. Operators commonly select objectives based on technical (e.g., propped fracture length, fracture height containment), operational and investment considerations. Here, the average fracture conductivity at closure is selected as the primary technical objective to be maximized. A subsequent uncertainty analysis of the optimum treatment plan that expressly includes the limits of formation property knowledge quantifies the probability of success. Production forecasts of specific cases illustrate the range of possible outcomes. Results from more than 12,000 hydraulic stimulation simulations demonstrate a wide distribution of results in terms of average fracture conductivity. Surprisingly, only a small, isolated fraction (< 5%) of the design space returns clearly superior results compared to the majority of investigated scenarios. The optimum treatment designs in this study are associated with relatively low volumes of a gel treatment pumped at relatively high rates. Production simulations illustrate that the best 10% of cases significantly outperform production over the first two years by approximately 50%. Collectively, the approach presented here illustrates the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on several thousand simulations that cover a large, realistic parameter space. Embracing uncertainty, this approach enables identification of the best treatment plan and quantification of the probability of success given limited formation data. In addition, this methodology offers input for risk assessment and return on investment decisions.
介绍了水力压裂处理中处理地下不确定性的一种范式转变。针对Marcellus非常规油藏水平井增产方案,采用不确定性和敏感性分析进行数学上的严格应用,利用有限的地层数据确定最佳处理参数,并量化其成功的概率。选择最佳的油藏增产措施是通过系统地研究数千次水力压裂模拟来实现的,这些模拟涵盖了具有固有不确定性(例如应力梯度、泄漏系数)和可调处理参数(例如泵速、流体和支撑剂性质、射孔间距)的地层属性,并计算目标函数。作业者通常根据技术(例如,支撑裂缝长度、裂缝高度密封)、操作和投资考虑来选择目标。在这里,选择闭合时的平均裂缝导流率作为要最大化的主要技术目标。随后对最优处理方案的不确定性分析明确包含了地层属性知识的限制,从而量化了成功的概率。具体情况的生产预测说明了可能结果的范围。超过12,000次的水力压裂模拟结果表明,在平均裂缝导流能力方面,结果分布广泛。令人惊讶的是,与大多数被调查的场景相比,只有一小部分孤立的设计空间(< 5%)返回了明显更好的结果。本研究中的最佳处理设计与相对低体积的凝胶处理以相对高的速率泵送有关。生产模拟表明,在前两年,最好的10%的案例的产量显著高于产量约50%。总的来说,这里提出的方法说明了不确定性和敏感性分析在几千个模拟中的应用,这些模拟涵盖了一个大的、现实的参数空间。考虑到不确定性,这种方法可以在有限的地层数据下确定最佳的处理方案,并量化成功的概率。此外,该方法为风险评估和投资决策回报提供了输入。
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引用次数: 1
Stability of Biopolymer and Partially Hydrolyzed Polyacrylamide in Presence of H2S and Oxygen 生物聚合物和部分水解聚丙烯酰胺在H2S和氧气存在下的稳定性
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191581-MS
M. T. Al-Murayri, Dawood S. Kamal, J. G. Garcia, N. Al-Tameemi, J. Driver, Richard Hernandez, R. Fortenberry, Christopher Britton
There are many oil reservoirs worldwide with substantial amount of H2S but otherwise very favorable conditions for polymer flooding such as low temperature, high permeability, and moderate to high oil viscosity. However, there is a legitimate concern about the chemical stability of polymers when there is dissolved oxygen in the injection water or injection facility and its high concentrations of H2S in the reservoir. Several synthetic polymers and biopolymers were selected for stability testing under a wide range of conditions. We focused on identifying the concentration limits for co-presence of H2S and oxygen for which the synthetic and biopolymers are stable for an extended period, using different, widely available brine compositions. Experiments were conducted with and without standard polymer protection packages to evaluate their effects on stability and degradation under sour conditions. Viscosity of polymer solutions with varying concentrations of H2S and oxygen were measured and compared with the oxygen free or H2S free solution viscosities for a period of 6 months. Several methods of safely introducing H2S to the polymer solution were investigated and compared. The laboratory results indicated that biopolymers were stable at all the concentrations of oxygen and H2S concentrations studied. Three synthetic polymers tested showed some degradation in the presence of oxygen and H2S but were stable when either species is absent. The results indicated that oxygen is the limiting reagent in the degradation reaction with partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) polymers under normal reservoir conditions. We observed little-to-no difference in degradation between samples with 10 or 100 ppm H2S at 500 ppb oxygen concentration, so H2S is not the limiting reagent under these conditions. Additionally, HPAM exposed to 10 ppm H2S and intermediate levels of oxygen (~0.5 ppm) only partially degrades, while samples exposed to H2S and ambient oxygen completely degrade. We anticipate these results will be useful for operators evaluating the potential of polymer flooding in sour reservoirs to follow a stricter polymer preparation at the surface facility to minimize oxygen concenration.
世界上有许多具有大量H2S的油藏,但它们具有低温、高渗透、中高油粘度等非常有利的聚合物驱条件。然而,当注入水或注入设备中存在溶解氧以及储层中高浓度的H2S时,人们有理由担心聚合物的化学稳定性。选择几种合成聚合物和生物聚合物在各种条件下进行稳定性测试。我们专注于确定H2S和氧气共存的浓度限制,在这种情况下,合成聚合物和生物聚合物可以使用不同的、广泛可用的盐水成分长时间保持稳定。采用标准聚合物保护包和无标准聚合物保护包进行了实验,以评估其在酸性条件下的稳定性和降解效果。在6个月的时间里,测量了不同浓度H2S和氧的聚合物溶液的粘度,并与无氧溶液或无H2S溶液的粘度进行了比较。研究并比较了几种将H2S安全引入聚合物溶液的方法。实验结果表明,生物聚合物在所有氧和H2S浓度下都是稳定的。测试的三种合成聚合物在氧气和H2S存在时表现出一定的降解,但在两种物质都不存在时表现稳定。结果表明,在正常储层条件下,氧是部分水解聚丙烯酰胺(HPAM)聚合物降解反应的限制试剂。我们观察到,在氧气浓度为500 ppb时,含10 ppm或100 ppm H2S的样品在降解方面几乎没有差异,因此在这些条件下H2S不是限制试剂。此外,HPAM暴露于10ppm H2S和中等水平的氧气(~0.5 ppm)中只能部分降解,而暴露于H2S和环境氧气中的样品则完全降解。我们预计这些结果将有助于作业者评估含硫油藏中聚合物驱的潜力,以便在地面设施中进行更严格的聚合物制备,以尽量减少氧浓度。
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引用次数: 3
Estimating Hydraulic Fracture Geometry by Analyzing the Pressure Interference Between Fractured Horizontal Wells 通过分析压裂水平井间压力干涉估计水力裂缝几何形状
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191492-MS
P. Seth, Ripudaman Manchanda, Ashish Kumar, M. Sharma
Pressure interference measurements in fractured horizontal wells have been used to characterize hydraulic fractures (Kampfer and Dawson, 2016; Roussel and Agrawal, 2017). Past work has modeled this interference using static reservoir gridblocks as a proxy for hydraulic fractures. In this paper, we show that to accurately interpret the pressure response observed in a fractured monitor well, one needs to explicitly model the fractures and their propagation as a compliant discontinuity in the reservoir. A fully-coupled 3-D geomechanical reservoir model which models fractures explicitly as open and compliant channels has been developed to simulate pressure interference between hydraulic fractures in a multi-well pad. Using this model, we simulate dynamic fracture propagation at the treatment well while monitoring pressure at the monitor well. The pressure response inside the monitor well fracture is calculated accurately by explicitly modeling the monitor well fracture as a compliant discontinuity in the reservoir rock. We study the impact of mechanical stress interference between the fractures. The model is then used to simulate and analyze the treatment pressure response observed in a pair of wells in the Permian Basin. Simulation results indicate that hydraulic fracture propagation towards the monitor well results in changes in stress on the monitor fracture. Closure and opening of the monitor fracture is manifested directly as an increase/decrease in pressure in the monitor well fracture. We show that this pressure change in the monitor well is observed primarily because of the elastic effect of mechanically squeezing the monitor fracture by the dynamically propagating hydraulic fracture (not by direct hydraulic communication). As such it is essential to model the compliance of the fractures as has been done in this study. This monitor well pressure response is systematically analyzed to estimate fracture geometry for field data obtained from a Permian Basin well pad. Our representation of the propagating hydraulic fracture and the monitoring well fracture as compliant discontinuities in the reservoir is for the first time shown to be essential to capture the pressure response observed in the field. Previous models have simplified the problem by representing the fracture as static reservoir grid-blocks, and such models are clearly inadequate. Our model captures the impact of a propagating hydraulic fracture on the pressure response observed in a fractured monitor well much more accurately. Such pressure interference analysis can provide operators with a semi-quantitative estimate of hydraulic fracture geometry, relatively inexpensively.
压裂水平井的压力干扰测量已被用于表征水力裂缝(Kampfer和Dawson, 2016;Roussel and Agrawal, 2017)。过去的工作使用静态油藏网格块作为水力裂缝的代理来模拟这种干扰。在本文中,我们表明,为了准确地解释裂缝监测井中观察到的压力响应,需要明确地将裂缝及其扩展建模为油藏中的柔顺不连续面。开发了一种完全耦合的三维地质力学储层模型,该模型将裂缝明确地建模为开放和弯曲的通道,以模拟多井区水力裂缝之间的压力干扰。利用该模型,我们在监测井压力的同时模拟了处理井的动态裂缝扩展。通过将监测井裂缝明确地建模为储层岩石中的柔顺不连续面,准确地计算了监测井裂缝内部的压力响应。我们研究了裂缝间机械应力干扰的影响。然后将该模型用于模拟和分析在二叠纪盆地的一对井中观察到的处理压力响应。模拟结果表明,水力裂缝向监测井方向扩展导致监测裂缝应力发生变化。监测裂缝的闭合和打开直接表现为监测井裂缝内压力的增加/减少。我们发现,监测井的压力变化主要是由于动态扩展的水力裂缝(而不是直接的水力通信)机械挤压监测裂缝的弹性效应造成的。因此,正如本研究所做的那样,对骨折的顺应性进行建模是至关重要的。系统分析了该监测井的压力响应,以估计二叠纪盆地井台现场数据的裂缝几何形状。我们将扩展的水力裂缝和监测井裂缝表示为油藏中的柔顺不连续面,这首次证明了对于捕获现场观察到的压力响应至关重要。以前的模型将裂缝表示为静态储集网格块,从而简化了问题,这种模型显然是不充分的。我们的模型更准确地捕捉了水力裂缝扩展对裂缝监测井中观察到的压力响应的影响。这种压力干扰分析可以为作业者提供水力裂缝几何形状的半定量估计,成本相对较低。
{"title":"Estimating Hydraulic Fracture Geometry by Analyzing the Pressure Interference Between Fractured Horizontal Wells","authors":"P. Seth, Ripudaman Manchanda, Ashish Kumar, M. Sharma","doi":"10.2118/191492-MS","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/191492-MS","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Pressure interference measurements in fractured horizontal wells have been used to characterize hydraulic fractures (Kampfer and Dawson, 2016; Roussel and Agrawal, 2017). Past work has modeled this interference using static reservoir gridblocks as a proxy for hydraulic fractures. In this paper, we show that to accurately interpret the pressure response observed in a fractured monitor well, one needs to explicitly model the fractures and their propagation as a compliant discontinuity in the reservoir.\u0000 A fully-coupled 3-D geomechanical reservoir model which models fractures explicitly as open and compliant channels has been developed to simulate pressure interference between hydraulic fractures in a multi-well pad. Using this model, we simulate dynamic fracture propagation at the treatment well while monitoring pressure at the monitor well. The pressure response inside the monitor well fracture is calculated accurately by explicitly modeling the monitor well fracture as a compliant discontinuity in the reservoir rock. We study the impact of mechanical stress interference between the fractures. The model is then used to simulate and analyze the treatment pressure response observed in a pair of wells in the Permian Basin.\u0000 Simulation results indicate that hydraulic fracture propagation towards the monitor well results in changes in stress on the monitor fracture. Closure and opening of the monitor fracture is manifested directly as an increase/decrease in pressure in the monitor well fracture. We show that this pressure change in the monitor well is observed primarily because of the elastic effect of mechanically squeezing the monitor fracture by the dynamically propagating hydraulic fracture (not by direct hydraulic communication). As such it is essential to model the compliance of the fractures as has been done in this study. This monitor well pressure response is systematically analyzed to estimate fracture geometry for field data obtained from a Permian Basin well pad.\u0000 Our representation of the propagating hydraulic fracture and the monitoring well fracture as compliant discontinuities in the reservoir is for the first time shown to be essential to capture the pressure response observed in the field. Previous models have simplified the problem by representing the fracture as static reservoir grid-blocks, and such models are clearly inadequate. Our model captures the impact of a propagating hydraulic fracture on the pressure response observed in a fractured monitor well much more accurately. Such pressure interference analysis can provide operators with a semi-quantitative estimate of hydraulic fracture geometry, relatively inexpensively.","PeriodicalId":11015,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Mon, September 24, 2018","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77728379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Subsea Well Integrity - Permanent Monitoring Solution to Verify Critical Well Barriers, Simplify and Reduce Cost of Periodic Testing 海底油井完整性-永久性监测解决方案,可验证关键井屏障,简化并降低定期测试成本
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191677-MS
S. Grimstad
This paper will focus on well integrity standards and give practical examples on how they are applied for wells in the Norwegian Sea. Further the paper will review how the standards are used for testing and verifying barriers in a well, and how well integrity on subsea and TLP (tension leg platforms) benefit with the introduction of annulus B monitoring. Examples will present how barriers can be moved and testing time reduced, while still complying to standards and local regulations as well as making the well design more robust. Data from a well using the annulus B monitoring system will be presented and explained to give an understanding how this can benefit subsea wells throughout life of well.
本文将重点介绍油井完整性标准,并给出如何将其应用于挪威海油井的实际示例。此外,本文还将回顾如何使用这些标准来测试和验证井中的屏障,以及引入环空B监测后,海底和张力腿平台的井完整性如何受益。示例将展示如何移动障碍并减少测试时间,同时仍然符合标准和当地法规,并使井设计更加坚固。本文将介绍并解释使用环空B监测系统的井的数据,以了解该系统如何在井的整个生命周期内为海底井带来好处。
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引用次数: 1
Advanced Computer Modelling for Metal-to-Metal Seal in API Flanges API法兰金属对金属密封的先进计算机建模
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191636-MS
Harshkumar Patel, H. Hariharan, G. Bailey, G. Jung
API flanges maintain integrity through metal-to-metal seal between gasket and flange groove, where sealability depends on contact stresses through bolt makeup-load, tension, fluid-pressure, bending moment. Approaches like API-6AF2 have limitations. With increased deep-water operations, there is an urgent need to understand true sealability/leakage. This requires micro-scale examination of seal. Very few FEA in literature model surface conditions. The objective here has been to develop an analytical model to estimate contact stresses and leakage considering surface topography. This work presents a novel approach for modelling sealability/leakage in metal-to-metal surfaces. It utilizes a contact-mechanics and a fluid-flow model. Deterministic multi-asperity contact-mechanics model provides quantitative estimation of gasket contact stresses, contact gap, and contact area. The leakage model uses contact gap information and correlates it with hydraulic permeability between gasket and groove surfaces and predicts leakage using fluid flow through porous media equations. User inputs are gasket surface topography, size, material properties, operating pressure, and fluid viscosity. The calculations are performed on a small surface domain and results are then scaled-up to obtain contact load/leakage for the entire flange/gasket. Various types of artificially generated surfaces were considered in the model and a parametric study was conducted. Effects of surface finishing have been explained by visual representation of model outputs such as contact status, load distribution, and leakage path. It was observed that critical contact stress to achieve complete sealability is highly dependent on surface characteristics. For similar surface topography, leakage rates are primarily a function of surface RMS. For the same RMS, it is more difficult to seal a randomly rough surface than a patterned or uniform one. As expected, it is easier to seal a soft gasket than a harder one. Similarly, it becomes progressively difficult to seal larger flanges. Parametric studies/analysis can help improve understanding of leakage. The models can be used to understand relative magnitude of challenges in sealing gases/liquids at true viscosities. With further refinement and experimental validation, the models could serve as a design tool that could greatly assist in selecting effective seal and improve well process safety. Further, the presented approach can also be applied to develop leakage models for other metal-to-metal seal applications such as tubular connections, expandables, etc.
API法兰通过垫片和法兰槽之间的金属对金属密封来保持完整性,其中密封性取决于螺栓构成的接触应力——载荷、张力、流体压力、弯矩。像API-6AF2这样的方法有局限性。随着深水作业的增加,迫切需要了解真正的密封性/泄漏性。这需要对密封件进行微观尺度的检查。文献中很少有模拟表面条件的有限元分析。这里的目标是开发一个分析模型来估计考虑表面形貌的接触应力和泄漏。这项工作提出了一种新的方法来模拟金属对金属表面的密封性/泄漏。它利用了接触力学和流体流动模型。确定性多粗糙接触力学模型提供了垫圈接触应力,接触间隙和接触面积的定量估计。泄漏模型采用接触间隙信息,并将其与垫片和沟槽表面之间的水力渗透率联系起来,利用流体通过多孔介质的流动方程来预测泄漏。用户输入垫片表面形貌、尺寸、材料特性、操作压力和流体粘度。计算在一个小的表面范围内进行,然后将结果按比例放大,以获得整个法兰/垫片的接触载荷/泄漏。模型中考虑了各种类型的人工生成曲面,并进行了参数化研究。表面处理的影响已经通过模型输出的可视化表示来解释,例如接触状态、负载分布和泄漏路径。观察到,达到完全密封性的临界接触应力高度依赖于表面特性。对于相似的表面形貌,泄漏率主要是表面均方根的函数。对于相同的RMS,密封随机粗糙的表面比密封有图案或均匀的表面更困难。正如预期的那样,软垫片比硬垫片更容易密封。同样,要密封较大的法兰也变得越来越困难。参数研究/分析有助于提高对泄漏的理解。这些模型可以用来了解在真实粘度下密封气体/液体的相对难度。通过进一步的改进和实验验证,这些模型可以作为设计工具,极大地帮助选择有效的密封,提高钻井过程的安全性。此外,所提出的方法也可以应用于开发其他金属对金属密封应用的泄漏模型,如管连接、膨胀管等。
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引用次数: 13
A Large-Scale Study for a Multi-Basin Machine Learning Model Predicting Horizontal Well Production 多盆地机器学习水平井产量预测模型的大规模研究
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191538-MS
S. Amr, Hadeer El Ashhab, M. El-Saban, Paul S. Schietinger, Curtis Caile, Ayman Kaheel, Luis F. Rodríguez
This paper proposes a set of data driven models that use state of the art machine learning techniques and algorithms to predict monthly production of unconventional horizontal wells. The developed models are intended to forecast both producing locations (PLs) and non-producing well locations (NPLs). Furthermore, results of extensive experiments are presented that were conducted using different methodologies and features combinations. Results are measured against conventional Arps's decline curve analysis showing significant boost in prediction accuracy for both NPLs and PLs. The most accurate model outperforms Arps's-based estimates by almost 23% for NPLs and 36% for PLs. Results also show that using data from multiple basins in training models for another basin yields gains in accuracy, especially for basins with relatively small data.
本文提出了一套数据驱动模型,该模型使用最先进的机器学习技术和算法来预测非常规水平井的月产量。所开发的模型旨在预测生产井位(PLs)和非生产井位(NPLs)。此外,还介绍了使用不同方法和特征组合进行的大量实验结果。与传统的Arps下降曲线分析相比,结果显示不良贷款和不良贷款的预测精度都有显著提高。最准确的模型对不良贷款的预测精度比基于Arps的估计高出近23%,对不良贷款的预测精度高出36%。结果还表明,在训练模型中使用来自多个盆地的数据可以提高另一个盆地的准确性,特别是对于数据相对较少的盆地。
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引用次数: 9
Integrating Downhole Temperature Sensing Datasets and Visual Analytics for Improved Gas Lift Well Surveillance 集成井下温度传感数据集和可视化分析,改进气举井监测
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191626-MS
O. Bello, D. Bale, Lei Yang, D. Yang, Ajish Kb, Murali Lajith, S. Lazarus
Given the near ubiquity of fiber-optic, information and communication technologies in reservoir and well management, there is a significant need for one-stop shop downhole distributed sensing data analysis methods together with machine learning techniques towards autonomous analysis of such data sources. However, traditional approaches of converting distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data to actionable insights for optimizing gas lift well operations management remain dependent on training based on human annotations. Annotation of downhole distributed temperature sensor data is a laborious task that is not feasible in practice to train a big data classification algorithm for accurate and reliable anomaly detection of gas lift valves. Furthermore, even obtaining training examples for event diagnosis is challenging due to the rarity of some gas lift valve problems. In gas lift well surveillance, it is essential to generate real-time results to allow a swift response by an engineer to prevent harmful consequences of gas lift valve failure onsets on well performance. The online learning capabilities, also mean that the data classification model can be continuously updated to accommodate reservoir changes in the well environment. In this paper, we propose a novel online real-time DTS data visual analytics platform for gas lift wells using big data tools. The proposed system combines Apache Kafka for data ingestion, Apache Spark for in-memory data processing and analytics, Apache Cassandra for storing raw data and processed results, and INT geo toolkit for data visualization. Specifically, the data analytics pipeline uses data mining algorithms to statistically learn features from the DTS measurements. The learned features are used as inputs to a k-means algorithm and then use supervised learning to predict the performance status of gas lift valves and raise alarms based on analytics-based intelligent warning system. The performance of the proposed system architecture for detecting gas lift valve anomaly is evaluated under varying deployment scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, DTS data analytics pipeline system has not been used for real-time anomaly detection in gas lift well operations.
鉴于光纤、信息和通信技术在油藏和井管理中几乎无处不在,因此迫切需要一站式的井下分布式传感数据分析方法以及机器学习技术,以实现对这些数据源的自主分析。然而,将分布式温度传感器(DTS)数据转换为优化气举井作业管理的可操作见解的传统方法仍然依赖于基于人工注释的培训。对井下分布式温度传感器数据进行标注是一项费力的工作,在实践中很难训练出准确可靠的气举阀异常检测大数据分类算法。此外,由于一些气举阀问题的罕见性,即使获得事件诊断的训练样例也具有挑战性。在气举井监测中,生成实时结果至关重要,以便工程师能够快速响应,以防止气举阀故障对井性能造成有害后果。在线学习功能也意味着数据分类模型可以不断更新,以适应井环境中储层的变化。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于大数据工具的气举井在线实时DTS数据可视化分析平台。该系统将Apache Kafka用于数据摄取,Apache Spark用于内存数据处理和分析,Apache Cassandra用于存储原始数据和处理结果,INT geo工具包用于数据可视化。具体来说,数据分析管道使用数据挖掘算法从DTS测量中统计地学习特征。将学习到的特征作为k-means算法的输入,然后使用监督学习来预测气举阀的性能状态,并基于基于分析的智能预警系统发出警报。在不同的部署场景下,评估了所提出的气举阀异常检测系统架构的性能。据我们所知,DTS数据分析管道系统尚未用于气举井作业的实时异常检测。
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引用次数: 3
Casing Failure Data Analytics: A Novel Data Mining Approach in Predicting Casing Failures for Improved Drilling Performance and Production Optimization 套管失效数据分析:一种新的数据挖掘方法,用于预测套管失效,以提高钻井性能和优化生产
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191570-MS
C. Noshi, S. Noynaert, J. Schubert
The last decade has spotted a tremendous upsurge in casing failures. The aftermaths of casing failure can include the possibility of blowouts, environmental pollution, injuries/fatalities, and loss of the entire well to name a few. The motivation behind this work is to present findings from a predictive analytics investigation of casing failure data using supervised and unsupervised data mining algorithms. Scientists and researchers have speculated the potential underlying causes of failure but to date this type of work remains unpublished and unavailable in the public domain literature. The study assembled comprehensive data from eighty land-based wells during drilling, fracturing, workover, and production operations. Twenty wells suffered from casing failure while the remaining sixty offset wells were compiled from well reports, fracturing treatment data, drilling records, and recovered casing data. The failures were unsystemic but included fatigue failure, bending stresses from excessive dogleg, buckling, high hoop stress on connections, and split coupling. The failures were detected at various depths, both in cemented and uncemented hole sections. Failures were spotted at the upper and lower production casing. Using a predictive analytics software from SAS, twenty-six variables were evaluated through the application of various data mining techniques on the failed casing data points. The missing data was accounted for using multivariate normal imputation. The study outcome addressed common casing sizes and couplings involved with each failure, failure location, hydraulic fracturing stages, cement impairment, dogleg severity, thermal and tensile loads, production-induced shearing, and DLS. The predictive algorithms used in this study included Logistic Regression, supervised Hierarchal Clustering, and Decision Trees. While the descriptive analytics manifested in visual representations included Scatterplot Matrices and PivotTables. A combination of the causes of failure were identified. A total of five statistical techniques using the aforementioned algorithms were developed to evaluate the concurrent effect of the interplay of these variables. Nineteen variables were believed to possess a high contribution to failure. Scatterplot matrix suggested a complex correlation between the total base water used in fracturing simulation and casing thickness. Logistic Regression suggested nine variables were significant including: TVD, operator, frac start month, MD of most severe DL, heel TVD, hole size, BHT, total proppant mass, cumulative DLS in lateral and build sections variables as significant failure contributors. PivotTables showed that the rate of casing failure was highest during the winter season. This investigation is aimed to develop a thorough understanding of casing failures and the myriad of contributing factors to develop comprehensive predictive models for future failure prediction via the application of data mining algorithms. These m
在过去的十年中,套管失效的数量急剧上升。套管失效的后果可能包括井喷、环境污染、伤亡和整口井的损失等。这项工作背后的动机是利用有监督和无监督数据挖掘算法对套管失效数据进行预测分析研究。科学家和研究人员推测了失败的潜在原因,但到目前为止,这类工作仍未发表,也无法在公共领域文献中找到。该研究收集了80口陆基井在钻井、压裂、修井和生产过程中的综合数据。20口井出现套管损坏,其余60口井根据井报告、压裂处理数据、钻井记录和回收的套管数据进行了整理。失效不是系统性的,但包括疲劳失效、过度狗腿造成的弯曲应力、屈曲、连接件上的高环向应力和联轴器断裂。在不同深度(包括胶结井段和未胶结井段)均检测到失效。在上部和下部生产套管都发现了故障。使用SAS的预测分析软件,通过对失效套管数据点应用各种数据挖掘技术,对26个变量进行了评估。缺失的数据使用多元正态插值进行解释。研究结果涵盖了常见的套管尺寸和套管接头,包括每次失效、失效位置、水力压裂阶段、水泥损伤、狗腿严重程度、热载荷和拉伸载荷、生产诱导剪切和DLS。本研究中使用的预测算法包括逻辑回归、监督层次聚类和决策树。而描述性分析则体现在视觉表示中,包括散点图矩阵和数据透视表。确定了故障原因的组合。使用上述算法共开发了五种统计技术来评估这些变量相互作用的并发效应。19个变量被认为对失败有很大的贡献。散点图矩阵表明,压裂模拟中使用的总基水与套管厚度之间存在复杂的相关性。Logistic回归分析表明,9个变量具有显著性,包括TVD、作业者、压裂开始月份、最严重深度下降的MD、跟部TVD、井眼尺寸、BHT、总支撑剂质量、横向累积DLS和建井段变量。数据透视表显示,套管失败率在冬季最高。该研究旨在通过数据挖掘算法的应用,全面了解套管失效及其影响因素,为未来的失效预测建立全面的预测模型。这些模型旨在为具有成本效益、安全性和更好的钻井实践提供理论和统计基础。
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引用次数: 6
Activating Shale to Form Well Barriers: Theory and Field Examples 激活页岩形成井障:理论与现场实例
Pub Date : 2018-09-24 DOI: 10.2118/191607-MS
T. Kristiansen, T. Dyngeland, S. Kinn, R. Flatebø, N. Aarseth
Shale is a general term used for argillaceous (clay-rich) rocks which are the most abundant sediment on the earth. It is believed that clay rich rocks comprise more than 50-75% of the geologic column. Shale has very varying petrophysical and mechanical properties. Shale is in the most cases acting as a trap or seal for hydrocarbon migration, but has also in more recent years been targeted as a reservoir target in some basins. In some wells it has been observed on cement bond logs that shales in uncemented intervals have moved in and closed the annulus. Pressure communication testing has been performed on these sections and the sections has been qualified as well barrier elements (Williams et al., 2009) for plug and abandonment (P&A) purposes. The main mechanism behind the deformation process is believed to be shale creep. In this paper we will discuss shale creep and other shale deformation mechanisms and how an understanding of these can be used to activate shale that has not contacted the casing yet to form a well barrier. We have developed a numerical model based on first order principles to better understand the mechanical deformation process. We are also supporting the modeling results with laboratory experiments, before we discuss a couple of field cases where shale intervals have been activated and verified to have formed a well barrier as part of the well construction process in new wells.
页岩是地球上沉积物最丰富的泥质(富含粘土)岩石的总称。据信,富含粘土的岩石占地质柱的50-75%以上。页岩具有非常不同的岩石物理和力学性质。页岩在大多数情况下作为油气运移的圈闭或密封,但近年来在一些盆地也被视为储层目标。在一些井中,水泥胶结测井观察到,未胶结层段的页岩进入并封闭环空。在这些井段进行了压力通信测试,这些井段已被认定为井眼隔离元件(Williams et al., 2009),可用于封井弃井(P&A)。变形过程背后的主要机制被认为是页岩蠕变。在本文中,我们将讨论页岩蠕变和其他页岩变形机制,以及如何利用对这些机制的理解来激活尚未接触套管的页岩,以形成井眼屏障。为了更好地理解机械变形过程,我们开发了基于一阶原理的数值模型。我们还通过实验室实验来支持建模结果,然后我们讨论了几个现场案例,在这些案例中,页岩层段已经被激活并验证形成了井障,这是新井建井过程的一部分。
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引用次数: 13
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Day 1 Mon, September 24, 2018
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