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Estimating Hospital Quality with Quasi-Experimental Data 用准实验数据估计医院质量
Pub Date : 2018-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3118358
Peter Hull
Non-random sorting can bias observational measures of institutional quality and distort quality-based polices. I develop alternative quasi-experimental approaches to quality estimation that accommodate nonlinear causal effects, institutional specialization, and unobserved selection-on-gains. I use this framework to compute empirical Bayes posteriors of the quality of 4,821 U.S. hospitals, combining estimates from ambulance referral quasi-experiments with predictions from observational risk-adjustment models. Higher-spending, higher-volume, and privately-owned hospitals are of higher quality, and most healthcare markets exhibit positive Roy selection-on-gains. I then simulate Medicare reimbursement and consumer guidance programs based on different hospital quality measures. Higher-spending providers tend to see moderately larger performance-linked subsidies when quality posteriors replace conventional rankings, while teaching hospitals are reimbursed relatively less. Admissions policy simulations highlight limitations of consumer guidance programs in settings with unobserved Roy selection: redirecting patients to top-ranked hospitals may worsen expected survival when based on observational rankings, while quasi-experimental rankings appear to generate modest gains.
非随机排序会对机构质量的观察性测量产生偏差,并扭曲基于质量的政策。我开发了另一种准实验方法来进行质量估计,以适应非线性因果效应、制度专业化和未观察到的增益选择。我使用这个框架来计算4821家美国医院质量的经验贝叶斯后验,将救护车转诊准实验的估计与观察性风险调整模型的预测相结合。支出较高、业务量较大的私立医院质量较高,大多数医疗保健市场表现出积极的Roy选择收益。然后,我根据不同的医院质量衡量标准模拟医疗保险报销和消费者指导计划。当高质量排名取代传统排名时,高支出的医疗机构往往会获得相对较大的与绩效挂钩的补贴,而教学医院的报销相对较少。招生政策模拟强调了消费者指导计划在未观察到的罗伊选择环境中的局限性:当基于观察性排名时,将患者重新定向到排名靠前的医院可能会降低预期生存率,而准实验排名似乎会产生适度的收益。
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引用次数: 73
The Effect of Feedback on Children's Physical Activity: A Randomized Control Trial in Alaska 反馈对阿拉斯加儿童体育活动的影响:一项随机对照试验
Pub Date : 2018-01-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3179820
Mouhcine Guettabi
The prevalence of obesity has significantly increased over the last few decades. It was once a condition exclusive to mature adults, but has now become commonplace among children. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared childhood obesity to be one of the most serious public health challenges of the 21st century. According to the Centers for Disease Control 17% of children and adolescents between the age of 2 and 19 are obese in the U.S. Additionally, obesity status can cause children serious psychological harm as a result of social stigmatization, depression, and poor body image. In this paper, I investigate how technology coupled with the social experience affects children's behavior and whether it can facilitate the adoption of more active lifestyles. Using a fitbit like device - named SQORD - and designed specifically for children, I conduct a clustered randomized control trial in the Anchorage School District where we assign schools to either full device access or restricted access. I evaluate the effect of feedback type on the physical activity of elementary school children. One type of feedback allowed students access to a website to check their points and compare their activity levels to that of friends while the other type limited the information to leader-board print outs that they received once every two weeks. I provide evidence that the type of feedback affects physical activity in elementary school children in Alaska.
在过去的几十年里,肥胖的患病率显著上升。这曾经是成年人独有的情况,但现在在儿童中已经很常见了。世界卫生组织(世卫组织)宣布儿童肥胖是21世纪最严重的公共卫生挑战之一。根据疾病控制中心的数据,在美国,17%的2岁至19岁的儿童和青少年肥胖。此外,肥胖状况会给儿童造成严重的心理伤害,因为社会歧视、抑郁和身体形象不佳。在本文中,我研究了技术与社会经验的结合如何影响儿童的行为,以及它是否能促进采用更积极的生活方式。我使用一种类似fitbit的设备——名为SQORD——专门为儿童设计,在安克雷奇学区进行了一项集群随机对照试验,我们将学校分配到完全使用设备或限制使用设备的学校。评价了反馈式对小学生体育活动的影响。一种类型的反馈允许学生访问一个网站来检查他们的分数,并将他们的活动水平与朋友的活动水平进行比较,而另一种类型的反馈则限制了他们每两周收到一次的排行榜打印信息。我提供的证据表明,这种类型的反馈会影响阿拉斯加小学生的体育活动。
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引用次数: 0
A Panel Data Analysis of Hospital Variations in Length of Stay for Hip Replacements: Private Versus Public 髋关节置换术住院时间变化的面板数据分析:私立与公立
Pub Date : 2017-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3077763
Yan Meng, Xueyan Zhao, Xibin Zhang, Jiti Gao
Inequality between private and public patients in Australia has been an ongoing concern due to its two tiered insurance system. This paper investigates the variations in hospital length of stay for hip replacements using Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset from 2003/2004 to 2014/2015, employing a Bayesian hierarchical random coefficient model with trend allowing for structural break. We find systematic differences in the length of stay between public and private hospitals, after observable patient complexity is controlled. This suggests shorter stay in public hospitals due to pressure from Activity-based funding scheme, and longer stay in private system due to potential moral hazard. Our counterfactual analysis shows that public patients stay 1.4 days shorter than private in 2014, which leads to the 'quicker but sicker' concern that is commonly voiced by the public. We also identify widespread variations among individual hospitals. Sources for such variation warrant closer investigation by policy makers.
由于澳大利亚的双层保险制度,私立和公立医院患者之间的不平等一直是一个令人担忧的问题。本文利用2003/2004年至2014/2015年的维多利亚入院数据集,采用考虑结构断裂趋势的贝叶斯分层随机系数模型,研究髋关节置换术住院时间的变化。我们发现,在可观察到的患者复杂性得到控制后,公立医院和私立医院的住院时间存在系统性差异。这意味着由于基于活动的资助计划的压力,在公立医院停留的时间较短,而由于潜在的道德风险,在私立医院停留的时间较长。我们的反事实分析显示,2014年公立医院的患者比私立医院的患者住院时间短1.4天,这导致了公众普遍表达的“更快,但病情更重”的担忧。我们还确定了各个医院之间的广泛差异。这种差异的来源需要决策者进行更密切的调查。
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引用次数: 0
An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Telecare on the Length of Stay in Hospital 远程医疗对住院时间影响的计量经济学分析
Pub Date : 2017-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3017182
Kevin Momanyi
This paper presents some preliminary results of a study investigating the effect of telecare on the length of stay in hospital using linked administrative health and social care data in Scotland. We make various assumptions about the probability distribution of the outcome measure and formulate three Negative Binomial Models to that effect i.e. a basic Negative Binomial Model, a zero-inflated Negative Binomial Model and a zero-truncated Negative Binomial Model. We then bring the models to data and estimate them using a strategy that controls for the effects of confounding variables and unobservable factors. These models provide an alternative to the Propensity Score Matching technique used by the previous studies. The empirical results show that telecare users are expected to spend a shorter time in hospital than non-users, holding other factors constant. The results also show that older individuals, males, rural residents and individuals with comorbidities have a longer length of stay in hospital, on average, than their counterparts, all things equal. Future research will involve conducting a sub-group analysis, investigating the effectiveness of various telecare devices and determining the impact of telecare on admission to hospital.
本文介绍了一项研究的一些初步结果,该研究利用苏格兰相关的行政卫生和社会保健数据调查了远程医疗对住院时间的影响。我们对结果测度的概率分布进行了各种假设,并为此建立了三种负二项模型,即基本负二项模型、零膨胀负二项模型和零截断负二项模型。然后,我们将模型带入数据,并使用控制混杂变量和不可观察因素影响的策略来估计它们。这些模型为以前的研究使用的倾向评分匹配技术提供了另一种选择。实证结果表明,在保持其他因素不变的情况下,远程医疗用户比非远程医疗用户预计在医院花费的时间更短。结果还表明,在所有条件相同的情况下,老年人、男性、农村居民和有合并症的人平均住院时间比他们的同行更长。未来的研究将包括进行分组分析,调查各种远程医疗设备的有效性,并确定远程医疗对入院的影响。
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引用次数: 0
How Common are Dominated Health Plan Options? Evidence from Employer Health Benefits with High-Deductible Plans 主导健康计划有多普遍?来自高免赔额计划的雇主健康福利证据
Pub Date : 2017-07-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3060675
Chenyuan Liu, Justin R. Sydnor
We analyze detailed data on plan designs from the Kaiser Family Foundation Employer Health Benefits Survey for 331 firms that offered employees both a qualifying high-deductible health plan and a lower-deductible option. For an employee at these firms selecting the lower-deductible option will decrease the deductible by $1,300 on average. However, the cost of that additional coverage for the employee, from increased employee premiums and forgone firm contributions to health savings accounts, is nearly as large, averaging $1,100. In 65% of firms the high-deductible option would result in lower maximum possible spending for the employee for the year. Further, we estimate based on simplified plan representations that the high-deductible plan financially dominates the lower-deductible option for employees at roughly half of the firms. Employees facing a range of possible medical-spending distributions would save on average over $500 per year with the high-deductible option, often with no additional annual financial risk. While we cannot pin down the mechanism behind these patterns conclusively, the evidence is consistent with firms passing through lower average costs for high-deductible plans generated by adverse selection patterns to the employees choosing those plans. These results raise questions about the net effect of offering employees choices over plans with different coverage levels. Rather than creating a classic trade-off between risk and expected spending, at many firms plan options generate disparities in overall benefit value for employees who opt into different levels of coverage.
我们分析了来自凯撒家庭基金会雇主健康福利调查的331家公司的详细数据,这些公司为员工提供了合格的高免赔额健康计划和低免赔额选择。对于这些公司的雇员来说,选择免赔额较低的选项将使免赔额平均减少1300美元。然而,员工的额外保险成本(包括增加的员工保费和放弃对健康储蓄账户的公司缴款)几乎同样高,平均为1,100美元。在65%的公司中,高免赔额的选择会降低员工当年的最大可能支出。此外,我们根据简化的计划表示估计,在大约一半的公司中,高免赔额计划在财务上主导了员工的低免赔额选择。如果选择高免赔额方案,面临一系列可能的医疗支出分配的员工平均每年将节省500多美元,而且通常没有额外的年度财务风险。虽然我们不能最终确定这些模式背后的机制,但有证据表明,公司通过逆向选择模式产生的高免赔额计划的较低平均成本,来激励选择这些计划的员工。这些结果提出了一个问题,即为员工提供不同覆盖水平的计划选择的净效应。许多公司并没有在风险和预期支出之间建立一种典型的权衡,而是对选择不同保险等级的员工产生了总体利益价值的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Latent Common Return Volatility Factors: Capturing Elusive Predictive Accuracy Gains When Forecasting Volatility 潜在的共同回报波动因素:在预测波动时捕捉难以捉摸的预测准确性增益
Pub Date : 2017-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2998304
Ming-Yen Cheng, Norman R. Swanson, Xiye Yang
In this paper, we use factor-augmented HAR-type models to predict the daily integrated volatility of asset returns. Our approach is based on a proposed two-step dimension reduction procedure designed to extract latent common volatility factors from a large dimensional and high-frequency returns dataset with 267 constituents of the S&P 500 index. In the first step, we apply either LASSO or elastic net shrinkage on estimates of integrated volatility of all constituents in the dataset, in order to select a subset of asset return series for further processing. In the second step, we utilize (sparse) principal component analysis to estimate latent common asset return factors, from which latent integrated volatility factors are extracted. Although we find limited in-sample fit improvement, relative to a benchmark HAR model, all of our proposed factor-augmented models result in substantial out-of-sample predictive accuracy improvement. In particular, forecasting gains are observed at market, sector, and individual-stock levels, with the exception of the financial sector. Further investigation of the factor structures for non-financial assets shows that industrial and technology stocks are characterized by minimal exposure to financial assets, inasmuch as forecasting gains associated with factor-augmented models for these types of assets are largely attributable to the inclusion of non-financial stock price return volatility in our latent factors.
本文采用因子增强的har模型来预测资产收益的日综合波动率。我们的方法基于提议的两步降维程序,该程序旨在从包含标准普尔500指数267个成分股的大维度高频回报数据集中提取潜在的共同波动因素。在第一步中,我们对数据集中所有成分的综合波动率估计应用LASSO或弹性净收缩,以便选择资产回报序列的子集进行进一步处理。第二步,我们利用(稀疏)主成分分析来估计潜在的共同资产收益因子,从中提取潜在的综合波动因子。尽管相对于基准HAR模型,我们发现样本内拟合改善有限,但我们提出的所有因子增强模型都能显著提高样本外预测精度。特别是,预测收益在市场、行业和个股水平上被观察到,金融部门除外。对非金融资产的因素结构的进一步研究表明,工业和科技股的特点是对金融资产的敞口最小,因为与这些类型的资产的因素增强模型相关的预测收益在很大程度上归因于将非金融股票价格回报波动纳入我们的潜在因素。
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引用次数: 1
The Effect of Health Insurance Coverage Expansions on Auto Liability Claims and Costs 健康保险覆盖范围扩大对汽车责任索赔和成本的影响
Pub Date : 2017-06-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3087503
S. Kadiyala, Paul S. Heaton
How do the Affordable Care Act health insurance coverage expansions affect payment for medical care provided through liability insurance, such as auto insurance? Theoretically, expanding coverage might lead to a substitution of health insurance disbursements for automobile insurance disbursements. Alternatively, expanding health insurance coverage might increase utilization of medical care, increasing auto liability claims payments. The net effect of these two mechanisms can only be determined empirically. We evaluate the health insurance-auto insurance interaction by examining the 2010 ACA dependent coverage expansion. Prior to 2010, individuals 19 and older were excluded from health insurance coverage under their parental health insurance plan. In September 2010, as part of the ACA, individuals were allowed to continue health insurance coverage until age 26. We use this policy change and claims data from insurers representing approximately 60% of the automobile passenger market to evaluate the effects of expanding health insurance coverage on auto liability claim payments. Using a difference-in-difference research design, we find an approximate 10% reduction in the total BI claim count in the policy-affected 19-25 ages when compared to the control group of individuals 26-34. Conditional on filing a claim, we also find an approximate 9% reduction in the mean total auto insurance paid amount in the 19-25 ages compared to the 26-34 ages. We do not identify any effects of the policy on the PIP auto insurance line.
《平价医疗法案》医疗保险覆盖范围的扩大如何影响通过责任保险(如汽车保险)提供的医疗服务的支付?从理论上讲,扩大覆盖范围可能导致医疗保险支付取代汽车保险支付。另外,扩大健康保险的覆盖范围可能会增加医疗保健的利用,增加汽车责任索赔的支付。这两种机制的净效应只能凭经验来确定。我们通过检查2010 ACA依赖的覆盖范围扩展来评估健康保险-汽车保险的相互作用。在2010年之前,19岁及以上的个人被排除在其父母健康保险计划的健康保险范围之外。2010年9月,作为ACA的一部分,个人被允许在26岁之前继续享受医疗保险。我们使用这一政策变化和来自约占汽车客运市场60%的保险公司的索赔数据来评估扩大健康保险覆盖范围对汽车责任索赔支付的影响。使用差异中的差异研究设计,我们发现,与26-34岁的对照组相比,受政策影响的19-25岁年龄组的BI索赔总数减少了约10%。在提出索赔的条件下,我们还发现,与26-34岁的人群相比,19-25岁人群的平均汽车保险支付总额减少了约9%。我们不确定该政策对PIP汽车保险线的任何影响。
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引用次数: 2
Sunk Costs and Screening: Two-Part Tariffs in Life Insurance 沉没成本和筛选:人寿保险的两部分关税
Pub Date : 2017-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2863171
James M. Carson, C. Ellis, R. Hoyt, Krzysztof Ostaszewski
There are large, upfront, fixed costs to writing a life insurance policy. Both agent commission and direct underwriting costs (e.g., fees for physicals and blood tests) are fully paid a few years into contracts that can last 10-30 years. Because of these upfront costs, insurers can actually lose money on policies when the consumer lapses early into the contract, even if no death benefit is ever paid out. Thus, to properly price contracts, insurers must estimate lapse risks. However, consumers will often have private knowledge of their lapse likelihood, leading to adverse selection. We develop a model of insurance pricing under heterogeneous lapse rates with asymmetric information about lapse likelihood within the context of an optional two-part tariff as a screening device for future policyholder behavior. We then test for consumer self-selection using detailed, policy-level data on life insurance backdating (a common practice that resembles a two-part tariff). We are able to identify, through a control function approach, the information about lapse risk a consumer reveals when they choose to backdate. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: we are the first to consider life insurance lapsing as a form of adverse selection; we also explore, both theoretically and empirically, the role of optional two-part tariffs as a screening mechanism using life insurance backdating as our primary example. We find that consumers who are less likely to lapse self-select into the two-part tariff pricing structure and also document consumer behavior consistent with sunk cost fallacy.
写一份人寿保险单有很大的前期固定成本。代理佣金和直接承保费用(例如,体检和验血费用)在几年内全部支付,合同可以持续10-30年。由于这些前期成本,当消费者在合同早期失效时,即使没有支付死亡赔偿金,保险公司实际上也会在保单上赔钱。因此,为了合理地为合同定价,保险公司必须估计失效风险。然而,消费者往往会私下知道他们的失误可能性,导致逆向选择。我们建立了一个基于非对称信息的异质性失效率下的保险定价模型,在可选的两部分关税背景下,失效可能性作为未来投保人行为的筛选装置。然后,我们使用人寿保险回溯(一种类似于两部分关税的常见做法)的详细政策级数据来测试消费者的自我选择。通过控制函数方法,我们能够识别消费者在选择回溯日期时透露的失效风险信息。我们对文献的贡献是双重的:我们是第一个将人寿保险失效视为逆向选择的一种形式;我们还从理论和经验两方面探讨了可选的两部分关税作为筛选机制的作用,并以人寿保险回溯为主要例子。我们发现,消费者不太可能陷入两部分关税定价结构的自我选择,并且也记录了与沉没成本谬误一致的消费者行为。
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引用次数: 5
Big Data-Driven Healthcare Project Financing 大数据驱动的医疗项目融资
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2925790
Roberto Moro Visconti
Healthcare investments are faced by the need to match growing expenses, due to ageing population trends, with public budget constraints. Infrastructural PF packages are by now popular and effective, although they are rigid and long-termed. Big data-driven value chains add unprecedented information to project financing (PF) and public private partnerships (PPPs), especially in healthcare investments. Big data and Internet of Health sensors, currently adopted in telemedicine, can be applied even to PF strategies, providing useful information to data-driven business plans. Public and Private Partners interact through networking big data and interoperable databases, boosting value co-creation, improving Value for Money, and reducing risk. Policy makers can conveniently use networked big data to enrich their feasibility plans, whereas private managers may extract precious information from public healthcare databases. Big data can also help shortening supply chain passages, boosting economic marginality and easing the sustainable planning of smart healthcare investments.
由于人口老龄化趋势,医疗保健投资面临着需要与公共预算限制相匹配的日益增长的费用。基础架构PF包现在很流行,也很有效,尽管它们是严格的和长期的。大数据驱动的价值链为项目融资(PF)和公私合作伙伴关系(ppp)提供了前所未有的信息,特别是在医疗保健投资方面。目前在远程医疗中采用的大数据和健康互联网传感器甚至可以应用于PF战略,为数据驱动的商业计划提供有用的信息。公共和私营合作伙伴通过网络大数据和可互操作的数据库进行互动,促进价值共同创造,提高物有所值,降低风险。政策制定者可以方便地使用联网大数据来丰富他们的可行性计划,而私人管理者可以从公共医疗数据库中提取宝贵的信息。大数据还可以帮助缩短供应链通道,提高经济边际性,并简化智能医疗投资的可持续规划。
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引用次数: 1
Testing for Parental Inequality Aversion. Evidence from Mexico 父母不平等厌恶的测试。来自墨西哥的证据
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3084645
Anastasia Terskaya
We analyse how children’s disability affects intra-household investment decisions. By means of a general preference model, we show that variation in family size and health conditions can be used to infer whether parents are averse to inequality in the distribution of quality among their children or if, instead, they care more about efficiency. In particular, we exploit the fact that parents of only children cannot possibly exhibit inequality aversion. We apply our identification strategy to Mexican cross-sectional data and find evidence that parents are inequality averse. Specifically, our results show that inequality aversion induces an average increase of 0.7-0.8 years of schooling for disabled individuals when non-disabled siblings are present. We also show that the effect differs by the gender of the child. Particularly, parental inequality aversion is relevant for males but not for females. While parental inequality aversion does not close the schooling gap between disabled and non-disabled males, its estimated effect is economically relevant, as it represents about 13-15 percent of the disability gap in education, which amounts to 5.3 years of schooling in Mexico.
我们分析了儿童残疾如何影响家庭内部投资决策。通过一般偏好模型,我们表明家庭规模和健康状况的变化可以用来推断父母是否反对在子女之间分配质量的不平等,或者他们是否更关心效率。特别是,我们利用了独生子女的父母不可能表现出不平等厌恶这一事实。我们将我们的识别策略应用于墨西哥横截面数据,并发现父母厌恶不平等的证据。具体而言,我们的研究结果表明,当非残疾兄弟姐妹在场时,不平等厌恶会导致残疾个体平均增加0.7-0.8年的受教育年限。我们还表明,这种影响因孩子的性别而异。特别是,父母对不平等的厌恶与男性有关,而与女性无关。虽然父母对不平等的厌恶并不能缩小残疾和非残疾男性之间的就学差距,但其估计的影响与经济相关,因为它代表了残疾教育差距的13- 15%,这相当于墨西哥5.3年的学校教育。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Demand & Supply in Health Economics eJournal
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