The fundamental rationale for international portfolio diversification is that it expands the opportunities for gains from portfolio diversification beyond those that are available through domestic securities. However, if international stock market correlations are higher than normal in bear markets, then international diversification will fail to yie ld the promised gains just when they are needed most. We evaluate the extent to which observed correlations to monthly returns in bear, calm and bull markets are captured by three popular bivariate distributions: (1) the normal, (2) the restricted GARCH(1,1) of J. P. Morgan's RiskMetrics, and (3) the Student-t with four degrees of freedom. Observed correlations during calm and bull markets are unexceptional compared to these models. In contrast, observed correlations during bear markets are significantly higher than predicted. Higher-than-normal correlations during extreme market downturns result in monthly returns to equal-weighted portfolios of domestic and international stocks that are, on average, more than two percent lower than those predicted by the normal distribution. If the extent of non-normality during bear markets persists over time, then a U.S. investor allocating assets into foreign markets might want to allocate more assets into foreign markets with near-normal correlation profiles and avoid markets with higher-than-normal bear market co-movements.
{"title":"Are the Gains from International Portfolio Diversification Exaggerated? The Influence of Downside Risk in Bear Markets","authors":"K. Butler, D. C. Joaquin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.221992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.221992","url":null,"abstract":"The fundamental rationale for international portfolio diversification is that it expands the opportunities for gains from portfolio diversification beyond those that are available through domestic securities. However, if international stock market correlations are higher than normal in bear markets, then international diversification will fail to yie ld the promised gains just when they are needed most. We evaluate the extent to which observed correlations to monthly returns in bear, calm and bull markets are captured by three popular bivariate distributions: (1) the normal, (2) the restricted GARCH(1,1) of J. P. Morgan's RiskMetrics, and (3) the Student-t with four degrees of freedom. Observed correlations during calm and bull markets are unexceptional compared to these models. In contrast, observed correlations during bear markets are significantly higher than predicted. Higher-than-normal correlations during extreme market downturns result in monthly returns to equal-weighted portfolios of domestic and international stocks that are, on average, more than two percent lower than those predicted by the normal distribution. If the extent of non-normality during bear markets persists over time, then a U.S. investor allocating assets into foreign markets might want to allocate more assets into foreign markets with near-normal correlation profiles and avoid markets with higher-than-normal bear market co-movements.","PeriodicalId":113051,"journal":{"name":"EFMA 2002 London Meetings (Archive)","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131571401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Andrés, F. López-Iturriaga, Juan Antonio Rodriguez-Sanz
This paper analyzes the influence of financial leverage decisions, dividend payout policies and the ownership structure on the firm market value when companies either face, or do not face, profitable growth opportunities. We use a sample of 101 large non-financial publicly traded Spanish companies. Our results confirm the relevance of debt and dividends in terms of firm value creation by showing a negative relationship between firm value and leverage in the presence of growth opportunities. On the contrary, this relationship turns out to be positive when firms have no profitable investment projects and dividends show an outstanding role in improving value creation. Our results also demonstrate the relevance of ownership structure in the allocation of firm resources.
{"title":"Financial Decisions and Growth Opportunities: A Spanish Firms Panel Data Analysis","authors":"P. Andrés, F. López-Iturriaga, Juan Antonio Rodriguez-Sanz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.250717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.250717","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the influence of financial leverage decisions, dividend payout policies and the ownership structure on the firm market value when companies either face, or do not face, profitable growth opportunities. We use a sample of 101 large non-financial publicly traded Spanish companies. Our results confirm the relevance of debt and dividends in terms of firm value creation by showing a negative relationship between firm value and leverage in the presence of growth opportunities. On the contrary, this relationship turns out to be positive when firms have no profitable investment projects and dividends show an outstanding role in improving value creation. Our results also demonstrate the relevance of ownership structure in the allocation of firm resources.","PeriodicalId":113051,"journal":{"name":"EFMA 2002 London Meetings (Archive)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123641876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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