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Evaluation of Investment Strategies with Options 期权投资策略的评价
Pub Date : 2002-06-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.313978
Ana Fernandes, C. Machado-Santos
The financial literature has revealed that option strategies originate asymmetric return distributions, providing new investment opportunities, particularly in the control and reduction of risk. On the other hand, given the inadequacy of the measures based upon mean and variance, we highlight the work of Leland (1999), which proposes a modification of the traditional risk measure (beta) of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to incorporate other moments of the return distributions. In this context, we applied this methodology on six dynamic hedging strategies with options on the FTSE 100 Index (covered calls at-, in- and out-of-the-money and protective puts at-, in- and out-of-the-money), in the sense of evaluating its performance. The results indicate that the new risk measure is statistically more significant than the traditional beta of CAPM, for that the information supplied by the measure of the performance (modified alpha) seems to be more reliable. However, the values of modified alphas reveal that these dynamic strategies result in excess returns close to zero (as theoretically expected), suggesting that the market price of these options appears to be in equilibrium, i.e., the options seem to be correctly priced.
金融文献表明,期权策略产生了不对称的收益分布,提供了新的投资机会,特别是在控制和降低风险方面。另一方面,考虑到基于均值和方差的度量的不足,我们重点介绍了Leland(1999)的工作,他提出了对资本资产定价模型(CAPM)的传统风险度量(beta)的修改,以纳入收益分布的其他时刻。在此背景下,我们将该方法应用于富时100指数期权的六种动态对冲策略(包括价内、价外的备兑看涨期权和价内、价外的保护性看跌期权),以评估其表现。结果表明,新的风险度量比传统的CAPM的beta具有统计显著性,因为由绩效度量(修正alpha)提供的信息似乎更可靠。然而,修正后的alpha值表明,这些动态策略导致超额收益接近于零(正如理论预期的那样),这表明这些期权的市场价格似乎处于均衡状态,即期权似乎是正确定价的。
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引用次数: 5
An Empirical Investigation of Ecns and the Dealer Market: Order Imbalances and Spread Patterns Ecns与交易商市场的实证研究:订单失衡与价差模式
Pub Date : 2002-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.313961
Robin K. Chou, G. Shyy, Mei-kung Chen
After adopting Order Handling Rules in 1997, the Nasdaq Stock Market has become a hybrid market with both the quote-driven (market makers, the dealer market) and the order-driven (the Electronic Communication Networks, ECNs) trading systems. We study the Nasdaq stocks to empirically examine the spread patterns of ECNs and the dealer market under order imbalances. The results show that the spread size is much smaller in ECNs than that in the dealer market. The spread size decreases as the participation rate of ECNs increases. It is also found that the spread size does not fluctuate with the order imbalance conditions in ECNs. However, in the dealer market, the spread size is maximized when orders are balanced and minimized when orders are imbalanced.
自1997年采用《指令处理规则》以来,纳斯达克股票市场已成为一个兼有报价驱动(做市商、交易商市场)和指令驱动(电子通信网络,ecn)交易系统的混合市场。本文以纳斯达克股票为研究对象,实证研究了订单失衡下ecn和交易商市场的价差模式。结果表明,ecn的价差规模远小于交易商市场。随着ecn参与率的增加,价差大小减小。研究还发现,在ecn中,价差大小不随序不平衡条件的变化而波动。然而,在交易商市场中,当订单平衡时,点差规模最大,当订单不平衡时,点差规模最小。
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引用次数: 4
The Influence of Capital Structure on Company Value with Different Growth Opportunities 不同成长机会下资本结构对公司价值的影响
Pub Date : 2002-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.313960
Kevin C. W. Chen
In this paper, we will try to empirically test the influence of the debt structure on the company value given different growth opportunities with the companies incorporated in Netherlands. It is well accepted that the market value of any firm is independent of its capital structure, given the assumptions of capital markets are "perfect". It is observed that the optimal capital structures are closely related to the growth potential of the firms and some other variables, such as: the size and the industry characteristics. Building on the argument that high-growth firms corporate value is negatively correlated with leverage, whereas for "low-growth" firms corporate value is positively correlated with leverage, we should observe that the growth opportunities may influence the optimal capital structure. The reason is that the optimal leverage may shift with the changes of growth opportunities that lead to the changes of agency costs of debt and cost of managerial discretion. In this context, we will try to empirically test 1: The correlation between Tobin's Q and leverage will be positive given the differences in growth opportunities; and 2: The correlation between Tobin's Q and leverage will be negative for high-growth firms and positive for low-growth firms. We expect that the signalling function of the debt will overweight the influence of the growth opportunities on the debt structure if hypothesis one is proved. Otherwise, the influence of the growth opportunities on the shift of the agency cost of debt and agency cost of managerial discretion will dominate the model. Finally, the influence of zero-debt capital structure is tested and discussed.
在本文中,我们将尝试以在荷兰注册的公司为样本,在给定不同成长机会的情况下,实证检验债务结构对公司价值的影响。人们普遍认为,在资本市场是“完美的”的假设下,任何公司的市场价值都与其资本结构无关。研究发现,最优资本结构与企业的成长潜力以及规模、行业特征等变量密切相关。基于高增长公司的公司价值与杠杆负相关,而“低增长”公司的公司价值与杠杆正相关的论点,我们应该观察到成长机会可能会影响最优资本结构。这是因为最优杠杆可能随着增长机会的变化而发生变化,从而导致债务代理成本和管理自由裁量权成本的变化。在此背景下,我们将尝试进行实证检验1:考虑到增长机会的差异,托宾Q与杠杆之间的相关性将为正;和2:托宾Q与杠杆的相关关系对于高增长企业为负,对于低增长企业为正。如果假设1成立,我们预计债务的信号功能将超过增长机会对债务结构的影响。否则,增长机会对债务代理成本和管理自由裁量权代理成本转移的影响将主导模型。最后,对零债务资本结构的影响进行了检验和讨论。
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引用次数: 35
Profitability of Contrarian vs Momentum Strategies: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange 逆向投资与动量策略的盈利能力:来自伊斯坦布尔证券交易所的证据
Pub Date : 2002-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.315379
Recep Bildik, Guzhan Gulay
Financial academics and practitioners have recognized that average stock returns are related to past performance and cross-section of stock returns is that predictable based on past returns. Number of researchers report that past losers (negative or lowest return-stocks) outperform past winners (positive or highest return-stocks) or vice versa over the subsequent three to five years not only in US markets but also in other stock markets. This study examines the momentum and contrarian effects on stock returns in one of the leading emerging markets, Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) between years 1991 and 2000 by using the same empirical methodology in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). It also investigates the weak-form efficiency of the stock market by examining the profitability of a number of contrarian strategies based on past prices, size, price, book-to-market, earnings-to-price ratios of stocks. Prior loser-stocks are found to outperform prior winner-stocks consistent with the predictions of the overreaction hypothesis. Compounded annual return difference between the top-winners and top-losers is around 15% in favor of loser-stocks since the average return difference during the 10-year period is 1.14% per month. Empirical findings for the longer-term average returns up to 36 month holding periods reveal a reversal of returns from 15 months to 36 months. On the other hand, we find that average abnormal returns and the average abnormal return difference per month between losers and winners increase as the holding period extends. Results also indicate that there is a downward trend in average returns for the winner stocks based upon the length of past returns that is used for portfolio formation but upward trend for the losers. Profitability of the strategies is robust to changes in the size of the portfolios. We also find that contrarian profits in January are significantly higher than those in non-January months, particularly for the short-term holding periods such as one and three months, however, losers outperform the winners in most of the months of the year. The overreaction is significantly stronger for smaller firms than for larger firms. Losers portfolio are typically smaller, lower priced, high-B/M and high-E/P stocks (as distressed stocks) than stocks in the winners portfolio. Our evidence indicates that there is significant price, size, B/M and E/P effects in stock returns in ISE, consistent to previous empirical work. After we analyzed 80 different strategies based on five different factors such as past-return, size, price, B/M and E/P, in various length of formation and holding periods, we find that stocks that have lower price, smaller size, lower past-return, higher-B/M and E/P are significantly provide higher returns than others. Price, size and E/P-based portfolios earn a larger return than loser-winner portfolios suggested by the overreaction hypothesis. Large profits of winners&losers portfolios might be subsumed or caused by the ot
金融学者和从业者已经认识到,股票的平均回报与过去的表现有关,股票回报的横截面是基于过去的回报来预测的。许多研究人员报告说,过去的输家(负或最低回报的股票)在随后的三到五年里表现优于过去的赢家(正或最高回报的股票),反之亦然,不仅在美国市场,而且在其他股市也是如此。本研究采用与Jegadeesh和Titman(1993)相同的实证方法,考察了1991年至2000年间主要新兴市场之一伊斯坦布尔证券交易所(ISE)股票回报的动量和反向效应。它还根据股票的过去价格、规模、价格、账面市值比和市盈率,通过检验一些反向策略的盈利能力,研究了股票市场的弱形式效率。先前的输家股票表现优于先前的赢家股票,这与过度反应假说的预测相一致。最大赢家和最大输家之间的复合年回报率差约为15%,因为10年期间的平均回报率差为每月1.14%。对于长期平均回报率(最长可达36个月)的实证研究发现,从15个月到36个月的回报率出现了逆转。另一方面,我们发现平均异常收益和月平均异常收益差随着持仓期的延长而增大。结果还表明,基于用于组合形成的过去回报长度,赢家股票的平均回报呈下降趋势,而输家的平均回报呈上升趋势。这些策略的盈利能力随着投资组合规模的变化而变化。我们还发现,1月份的反向利润明显高于非1月份的利润,尤其是短期持有期,如1个月和3个月,然而,在一年中的大多数月份,输家的表现都优于赢家。小公司的过度反应明显强于大公司。与赢家投资组合中的股票相比,输家投资组合通常是规模较小、价格较低、高账面价值比和高市盈率的股票(即不良股票)。我们的证据表明,ISE的股票回报存在显著的价格、规模、B/M和E/P效应,与之前的实证工作一致。基于过去收益、规模、价格、市净率、市净率、市净率等5个不同因素,在不同的形成周期和持股期对80种不同策略进行分析后发现,股价较低、规模较小、过去收益较低、市净率和市净率较高的股票显著高于其他股票。以价格、规模和市盈率为基础的投资组合比过度反应假说所建议的输赢投资组合获得更大的回报。赢家和输家投资组合的巨额利润可能包含或由其他因素引起,如规模、市盈率和市盈率效应。这很可能是一种与其他因素有关的基于尺寸的现象。另一方面,研究结果表明,输家比赢家风险更大,因为他们对所有三个Fama-French因素都更敏感,然而,显著的反向利润与风险因素部分相关,并没有被Fama和French的三因素模型所捕获。赢家和输家投资组合的巨大异常回报和过度反应效应可能只能部分解释风险因素。最后,我们的研究结果表明,ISE的股票收益存在逆向效应,或者更具体地说是“赢家和输家效应”,买进过去的输家、卖出过去的赢家的逆向交易策略为投资者带来了与DeBondt和Thaler(1985)一致的显著异常利润。然而,证据也与过度反应一致,部分与行为假设和风险一致,反向策略盈利背后的原因需要通过使用新的解释性风险因素和假设来仔细审查。
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引用次数: 24
The Price Elasticity of the Euro to Movements in Foreign Reserves Through European Central Bank Intervention 欧洲央行干预下欧元对外汇储备变动的价格弹性
Pub Date : 2002-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.303319
T. Brailsford, J. Penm, R. Terrell
Since its introduction on 1 January 1999, the Euro has become the second most widely traded currency, behind the US Dollar and ahead of the Japanese Yen. Over the first three years of 1999-2001, the weakness of the Euro was a significant feature of foreign exchange markets. The Euro's weakness confounded earlier general expectations that it would trend upward relative to the US Dollar. Movements in exchange rates can be affected by Central Bank intervention. This paper investigates the price elasticity of the Euro to potential European Central Bank intervention. The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. Conventional methods to test for Granger causal relations among variables, which affect the movements of forex markets, can be undertaken with vector error-correction (VECM) modelling. However the standard VECM approach is traditionally focused on full order time-series structures, which are based on nonzero elements in all elements of all coefficient matrices. Specifically, in tests of indirect causality and/or Granger non-causality in a VECM, the outcome of the causality detection is crucially dependent upon finding zero coefficients where the true structure does indeed include zero coefficients. This VECM, with allowance for possible zero entries in the coefficient matrices, is referred to as a zero-non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM. This paper employs ZNZ patterned VECM modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables (VECMX modelling) is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate, such as the initial rate existing at 1 January 1999.
自1999年1月1日推出以来,欧元已成为仅次于美元、领先日元的第二大交易货币。在1999年至2001年的头三年,欧元的疲软是外汇市场的一个显著特征。欧元的疲软打乱了之前普遍的预期,即欧元相对于美元将呈上升趋势。汇率变动可能受到中央银行干预的影响。本文研究了欧元对欧洲央行潜在干预的价格弹性。本文采用一种新的时间序列方法来考察欧元汇率与外汇储备水平之间的关系。检验影响外汇市场走势的变量之间格兰杰因果关系的传统方法,可以采用向量误差校正(VECM)模型。然而,传统的标准VECM方法侧重于全阶时间序列结构,它基于所有系数矩阵的所有元素中的非零元素。具体来说,在VECM中间接因果关系和/或格兰杰非因果关系的测试中,因果关系检测的结果至关重要地依赖于找到零系数,而真实结构确实包含零系数。这个VECM,考虑到系数矩阵中可能的零条目,被称为零-非零(ZNZ)模式VECM。本文采用ZNZ模式VECM模型研究外汇储备、欧洲货币联盟货币供给与欧元汇率之间的格兰杰因果关系。研究结果证实,外汇储备可能会影响欧元汇率的走势。此外,使用带有外生变量的新西兰元VECM模型(VECMX模型)来估计当前需要的外汇储备数量,以便再次实现欧元的目标汇率,例如1999年1月1日的初始汇率。
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引用次数: 1
The Ex-Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior in the Chinese Stock Market 中国股票市场除息日股价行为
Pub Date : 2002-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.314881
N. Travlos, Nikolaos T. Milonas, J. Xiao, Cunkai Tan
This paper analyzes the ex-dividend day stock price behavior in the Chinese stock market. This market allows to examine the impact of tax effects while keeping any microstructure factors constant. The findings from non-taxable stocks show that their price, on the ex-dividend day, falls by an amount that is not statistically different from the dividend. For the taxable sample, stock prices of small dividend yield stocks fall proportionally to the dividend paid. For the large dividend yield stocks, the price adjustment depends on the effective tax rate on dividend income. The overall findings are consistent with the tax hypothesis.
本文分析了中国股票市场除息日股价行为。这个市场允许在保持任何微观因素不变的情况下检查税收影响的影响。对非应税股票的研究结果显示,在除息日,它们的价格下跌幅度与派息日没有统计学差异。对于应税样本,小股息收益率股票的股价与支付的股息成比例下跌。对于高股息率的股票,价格调整取决于股息收入的有效税率。总体调查结果与税收假设一致。
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引用次数: 41
Negotiation and the IPO Offer Price: A Comparison of Integer Versus Non-Integer Ipos 谈判与IPO报价:整数与非整数IPO的比较
Pub Date : 2002-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.304964
Daniel Bradley, Jr. Cooney, Bradford D. Jordan, Ashutosh Kumar Singh
We investigate the pricing of 4,989 equity IPOs with offer dates between 1981 and 2000. Approximately three-fourths of these IPOs have integer offer prices. Average initial returns for IPOs with integer offer prices are significantly higher (24.5%) than those priced on the fraction of the dollar (8.1%). This result is robust through time and after conditioning for other effects known to influence initial returns. We hypothesize that integer vs. fractional dollar IPOs are the result of negotiations between the issuing firm and underwriter. Under this negotiation hypothesis, the frequency of integer pricing should be an increasing function of the offer price and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the value of the firm. Empirical evidence, supportive of the negotiation hypothesis, is presented.
我们研究了发行日期在1981年至2000年之间的4,989次股票ipo的定价。其中约四分之三的ipo发行价为整数。整数发行价的ipo平均初始回报率(24.5%)明显高于零头发行价的ipo(8.1%)。这一结果是稳健的,随着时间的推移,并在其他已知的影响初始收益的影响条件。我们假设整数美元与小数美元ipo是发行公司与承销商之间谈判的结果。在这个谈判假设下,整数定价的频率应该是要约价格和围绕企业价值的不确定性程度的递增函数。提出了支持谈判假设的经验证据。
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引用次数: 118
International Corporate Investment and the Role of Financial Constraints 国际企业投资与金融约束的作用
Pub Date : 2002-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.313964
W. Cleary
International evidence over the 1987-1997 period suggests that the capital expenditures of firms that are financially constrained are much less sensitive to the availability of internal funds than unconstrained firms. The evidence is particularly strong when firms are classified according to financial health, but is also prevalent for groups formed according to dividend behavior and firm size. The results provide strong support for the generality of the results of Kaplan and Zingales (1997) and Cleary (1999). A major reason for the weak investment-cash flow sensitivity displayed by unhealthy firms is that they appear to be busy building up financial slack, which has long-term value, as postulated by Myers and Majluf (1984).
1987-1997年期间的国际证据表明,财政拮据的公司的资本支出对内部资金可用性的敏感性远低于不受限制的公司。当公司根据财务状况进行分类时,这一证据尤为明显,但对于根据股息行为和公司规模组成的集团来说,这一证据也很普遍。研究结果有力地支持了Kaplan and Zingales(1997)和Cleary(1999)研究结果的一般性。正如Myers和Majluf(1984)所假设的那样,不健康的公司表现出较弱的投资-现金流敏感性的一个主要原因是,它们似乎忙于建立具有长期价值的财务松弛。
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引用次数: 17
Richardson Extrapolation Techniques for the Pricing of American-Style Options 美式期权定价的Richardson外推技术
Pub Date : 2002-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.313962
San‐Lin Chung, Chuang-Chang Chang, R. Stapleton
In this article, the authors reexamine the American‐style option pricing formula of R. Geske and H.E. Johnson (1984), and extend the analysis by deriving a modified formula that can overcome the possibility of nonuniform convergence (which is likely to occur for nonstandard American options whose exercise boundary is discontinuous) encountered in the original Geske–Johnson methodology. Furthermore, they propose a numerical method, the Repeated‐Richardson extrapolation, which allows the estimation of the interval of true option values and the determination of the number of options needed for an approximation to achieve a given desired accuracy. Using simulation results, our modified Geske–Johnson formula is shown to be more accurate than the original Geske–Johnson formula for pricing American options, especially for nonstandard American options. This study also illustrates that the Repeated‐Richardson extrapolation approach can estimate the interval of true American option values extremely well. Finally, the authors investigate the possibility of combining the binomial Black–Scholes method proposed by M. Broadie and J.B. Detemple (1996) with the Repeated‐Richardson extrapolation technique. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:791–817, 2007
在本文中,作者重新审视了R. Geske和H.E. Johnson(1984)的美式期权定价公式,并通过推导一个修正公式来扩展分析,该公式可以克服原始Geske - Johnson方法中遇到的非均匀收敛的可能性(这可能发生在行使边界不连续的非标准美式期权中)。此外,他们提出了一种数值方法,即重复-理查德森外推法,该方法可以估计真实期权值的区间,并确定逼近所需的期权数量,以达到给定的期望精度。仿真结果表明,本文提出的修正Geske-Johnson公式比原Geske-Johnson公式对美式期权,特别是非标准美式期权的定价更为准确。本研究还表明,重复-理查德森外推法可以很好地估计真实美式期权价值的区间。最后,作者探讨了将M. Broadie和J.B. Detemple(1996)提出的二项式Black-Scholes方法与repeat - Richardson外推技术相结合的可能性。©2007 Wiley期刊公司马可福音27:791-817,2007
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引用次数: 77
Managerial Equity Ownership and the Demand for Outside Directors 管理层股权与外部董事的需求
Pub Date : 2001-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.314829
K. Peasnell, P. Pope, S. Young
This paper investigates the relationship between managerial equity ownership and the demand for outside directors in the U.K. corporate control process. In recognition of both the benefits (incentive-alignment effects) and costs (entrenchment effects) of managerial ownership, we propose and test for evidence of a convex association between the proportion of outside board members and the level of insider ownership. Two non-linear specifications (quadratic and logarithmic) are estimated and compared with the simple linear relationship assumed in prior research. Cross-sectional results provide strong evidence that the association between board composition and managerial ownership is indeed non-linear, with both the quadratic and logarithmic models outperforming the linear specification. Further analysis indicates that of the two non-linear models, the logarithmic specification dominates. These findings are also confirmed by an analysis of changes in board composition in response to the Cadbury Report's best practice recommendations on the use of outside directors. Overall, our results suggest that the role of outside directors and their association with managerial ownership is more complex than the simple substitution effect previously assumed.
本文研究了英国公司控制过程中管理层股权与外部董事需求之间的关系。考虑到管理层所有权的利益(激励对齐效应)和成本(堑壕效应),我们提出并检验了外部董事会成员比例与内部人所有权水平之间存在凸关联的证据。估计了两种非线性规格(二次和对数),并与先前研究中假设的简单线性关系进行了比较。横截面结果提供了强有力的证据,证明董事会组成和管理层所有权之间的关联确实是非线性的,二次和对数模型都优于线性规范。进一步分析表明,在两种非线性模型中,对数规范占主导地位。针对吉百利报告中关于聘请外部董事的最佳实践建议,对董事会构成变化的分析也证实了这些发现。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,外部董事的作用及其与管理层所有权的关系比之前假设的简单替代效应更为复杂。
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引用次数: 149
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