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Research on the Dynamic Assessment of Comprehensive Risk Measurement and Investment Performance of Financial Assets 金融资产综合风险计量与投资绩效动态评价研究
Yeyong Zhang, Yusen Liu, Sama Zhu
Financial assets have the basic characteristics of risk, profitability, liquidity and so on. How to effectively complete the dynamic monitoring of comprehensive risk and investment performance of financial assets is still an important content of asset investment and management business. This paper takes the characteristic engineering as the basic knowledge theory, takes five stocks in China's A-share market as the research object, uses mathematical statistics and other methods to calculate the economic characteristics and physical characteristics of the selected stocks, and constructs the Comprehensive risk index and Investment performance index through the CRITIC-FAHP subjective-objective weighting method, so as to complete the comprehensive calculation and dynamic evaluation of the risk value and investment performance of the selected financial assets. The calculation results show that the comprehensive index constructed in this paper has high accuracy and good stability, which can avoid the evaluation deviation of the single factor model to a certain extent, and scientifically, comprehensively and deeply reflect the complex characteristics and internal laws of financial assets; At the same time, it can also be combined with Markowitz's Mean-Variance model to optimize its parameter structure and configuration, so as to provide some reference for investors or salespeople to make investment decisions.
金融资产具有风险性、收益性、流动性等基本特征。如何有效地完成对金融资产综合风险和投资绩效的动态监测,仍然是资产投资管理业务的重要内容。本文以特征工程为基础知识理论,以中国a股市场的5只股票为研究对象,运用数理统计等方法计算所选股票的经济特征和物理特征,并通过critical - fahp主客观加权法构建综合风险指数和投资绩效指数。从而完成对所选金融资产的风险价值和投资绩效的综合计算和动态评价。计算结果表明,本文构建的综合指标具有较高的准确性和较好的稳定性,在一定程度上避免了单因素模型的评价偏差,科学、全面、深刻地反映了金融资产的复杂特征和内在规律;同时,也可以结合马科维茨均值-方差模型对其参数结构和配置进行优化,为投资者或销售人员进行投资决策提供一定的参考。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Factors Affecting Accounting Information System Performance on Banking Company 影响银行公司会计信息系统绩效的因素分析
B. Handoko, G. Thomas, Lely Indriati
To support the institution's efficient operation, accounting information systems are crucial, thus it is also required to have an accounting information system that is backed by computerized information technology. This study will ascertain if user participation, individual technical proficiency, training and education programs, top management support, and formalization of system development have an impact on the functionality of the banking accounting information system. 104 people made up the sample for this study, which was gathered using a purposive sampling approach. Multiple linear regression analysis is the method utilized for analysis. The findings demonstrated that top management support, formalization of system development, user participation, personal technical abilities, training and education programs, and technical proficiency all improved the performance of accounting information systems.
会计信息系统是支持机构高效运作的关键,因此也需要一个以计算机化信息技术为后盾的会计信息系统。本研究将确定用户参与、个人技术熟练程度、培训和教育计划、高层管理人员支持和系统开发的正规化是否对银行会计信息系统的功能有影响。104人组成了这项研究的样本,这些样本是用有目的的抽样方法收集的。多元线性回归分析是进行分析的方法。研究结果显示,高层管理人员的支持、系统开发的正规化、使用者的参与、个人的技术能力、培训和教育计划,以及技术熟练程度,都能改善会计信息系统的绩效。
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引用次数: 0
GRU and LSTM Based Adaptive Prediction Model of Crude Oil Prices: Post-Covid-19 and Russian Ukraine War 基于GRU和LSTM的原油价格自适应预测模型:后covid -19和俄乌战争
Yingpeng Cai, Ning Zhang, Shimu Zhang
The crude oil prices, which were stable for consecutive years, have been on a roller coaster since COVID-19. Owing to supply chain crises caused by the pandemic, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the mismatch between excessive monetary policies and environmental protection policies, oil prices fell into negative territory in early 2020 unprecedentedly and hit new highs in recent days. On account of its universal approximation ability for any nonlinear function, the neural network has received substantial attention in asset price prediction. As a data-driven model, there is no doubt that the neural network can digest the past to predict the future. However, it cannot effectively predict those distinctive patterns that did not appear before, which is the case right now. In order to address this problem, a grey box adaptive Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model based on feedback control in the control engineering field is proposed in this paper to compensate for the prediction error of the neural network. According to the experimental data, the correlation coefficients of the Adaptive Long Short-Term Memory (ALSTM) and Adaptive Gate Recurrent Unit (AGRU) proposed in this paper are 0.9895 and 0.9886, respectively, and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of these two models are 3.2184 and 3.3546, respectively. Therefore, the proposed models can improve prediction accuracy.
连续几年保持稳定的原油价格,在新冠疫情后出现了“过山车”。受疫情引发的供应链危机、俄乌战争、过度货币政策与环保政策错配等因素影响,油价在2020年初史无前例地跌至负值,并在近日再创新高。由于神经网络具有对任何非线性函数的通用逼近能力,在资产价格预测中受到了广泛的关注。作为一种数据驱动的模型,毫无疑问,神经网络可以消化过去来预测未来。然而,它不能有效地预测那些以前没有出现过的独特模式,这就是现在的情况。为了解决这一问题,本文在控制工程领域提出了一种基于反馈控制的灰盒自适应递归神经网络(RNN)模型来补偿神经网络的预测误差。实验数据表明,本文提出的自适应长短期记忆(ALSTM)模型和自适应门循环单元(AGRU)模型的相关系数分别为0.9895和0.9886,两个模型的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为3.2184和3.3546。因此,所提出的模型可以提高预测精度。
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引用次数: 0
Status-Quo of IoT in Supply Chain Management - Applications, Potentials and Challenges in Austria: Status-Quo of IoT in Supply Chain Management 物联网在供应链管理中的现状-奥地利的应用、潜力和挑战:物联网在供应链管理中的现状
P. Brandtner, Stefan Schober, Robert Zimmermann, F. Staberhofer
The complexity and uncertainty in Supply Chain Management (SCM) has grown radically over the last years. New technologies provide an avenue for improving SCM activities. In particular, the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is one of the technological advances that has received quite some attention in SCM literature. However, especially for smaller countries such as Austria, the actual status of IoT application in SCM is low and research is often limited to analyzing theoretical potentials. The current paper elaborates the status-quo of IoT in eight different industries in Austria by means of expert interviews. Results show, that IoT is only applied in a very limited way. Still, practitioners agree that it offers huge potential, e.g., to increase supply chain transparency, improve planning in SCM or provide real-time information as basis for risk handling. The main benefits of IoT are seen in form of improved process quality, higher level of customer satisfaction due to tracking and tracing, provision of additional real time data, and the creation of digital supply chain twins. Each analyzed company plans to implement IoT in SCM in the future. The paper provides several starting points for practitioners aiming to implement IoT in SCM. Our results also provide several opportunities for future research, e.g., to compare our findings for Austria with findings from other countries with especial focus on SMEs.
供应链管理(SCM)的复杂性和不确定性在过去几年中急剧增长。新技术为改进供应链管理活动提供了途径。特别是,物联网(IoT)是在SCM文献中受到相当多关注的技术进步之一。然而,特别是像奥地利这样的小国家,物联网在供应链管理中的实际应用地位很低,研究往往局限于分析理论潜力。本文通过专家访谈的方式阐述了奥地利八个不同行业的物联网现状。结果表明,物联网的应用非常有限。尽管如此,从业者还是同意它提供了巨大的潜力,例如,增加供应链的透明度,改善供应链管理的计划,或提供实时信息作为风险处理的基础。物联网的主要好处体现在改进的流程质量、由于跟踪和追踪而提高的客户满意度、提供额外的实时数据以及创建数字供应链双胞胎。每个被分析的公司都计划在未来在SCM中实施物联网。本文为致力于在SCM中实现物联网的从业者提供了几个起点。我们的研究结果也为未来的研究提供了一些机会,例如,将奥地利的研究结果与其他国家的研究结果进行比较,特别关注中小企业。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Social Media on Chinese Students' Choice of Private Universities in China 社交媒体对中国学生选择私立大学的影响
Xiaolie Qi
This study investigates the importance of the social media on Chinese students’ choice of private universities in China and develops strategies to use different type of word-of-mouth. This study adopts a qualitative approach with a plan to conduct an in-depth interview with 25 Chinese private university students in mainland China. This research is also anticipated to add to the roles of offline word-of-mouth, the source credibility, and their relationships. The results indicate the following: 1) Chinese social media online word-of-mouth will directly influence Chinese students’ intention to select private universities. 2) Offline word-of-mouth will indirectly influence Chinese students’ intention to select private universities 3) Information source credibility plays a mediation role between offline word-of-mouth and intention to select private universities. The findings of this study will provide applied knowledge and managerial recommendations for private university who target Chinese students, need to be more actively involved in social media marketing by including online and offline word-of-mouth interactively.
本研究调查了社交媒体对中国学生选择中国私立大学的重要性,并制定了使用不同类型的口碑的策略。本研究采用定性研究方法,拟对25名中国大陆私立大学生进行深度访谈。预计这项研究还将增加线下口碑、来源可信度及其关系的作用。结果表明:1)中国社交媒体网络口碑会直接影响中国学生选择私立大学的意愿。2)线下口碑会间接影响中国学生选择私立大学的意愿3)信息源可信度在线下口碑与选择私立大学意愿之间起中介作用。本研究的结果将为以中国学生为目标的私立大学提供应用知识和管理建议,这些大学需要更积极地参与社交媒体营销,包括线上和线下的互动口碑。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Birth Years on Tendency to Marry: The Moderating Role of Negative Media Information Exposure 出生年龄对结婚倾向的影响:负面媒体信息曝光的调节作用
Yun Gao, Jie Zhou, Zhefei Mao
Previous research has primarily focused on the structure of marriage value and special groups' marriage value and its changing trends, but few have examined public intergenerational tendency to marry. This study constructs a model of moderated chain mediating effects based on social role theory and media communication theory. It explores the chain mediating role of gender roles and gender stereotypes in intimate relationships and the moderating role of negative media information exposure in the effect of birth year on tendency to marry. The results of the study show that:(a) the tendency to marry varies significantly between generations and shows a downward trend; (b)gender roles and gender stereotypes in intimate relationships play a chain mediating role between birth year and tendency to marry;(c) Negative media information exposure positively moderates the relationship between birth year and tendency to marry. Specifically, the greater the exposure to negative media messages, the stronger the negative relationship between birth year and tendency to marry; (d) Negative media information exposure does not moderate the relationship between birth year and gender roles in intimate relationships, nor does it moderate the chain mediating effect between birth years and the tendency to marry through gender roles and gender stereotypes in intimate relationships.
以往的研究主要集中在婚姻价值结构和特殊群体的婚姻价值及其变化趋势上,但很少研究公众的代际结婚趋势。本研究基于社会角色理论和媒介传播理论构建了一个有调节链中介效应模型。探讨性别角色和性别刻板印象在亲密关系中的连锁中介作用,以及负面媒体信息暴露在出生年份对结婚倾向影响中的调节作用。研究结果显示:(a)各代人的结婚倾向差异显著,呈下降趋势;(b)亲密关系中的性别角色和性别刻板印象在出生年份和结婚倾向之间起连锁中介作用;(c)负面媒体信息暴露正调节出生年份和结婚倾向之间的关系。具体而言,负面媒体信息暴露越多,出生年份与结婚倾向之间的负相关关系越强;(d)负面媒体信息暴露并没有调节出生年份与亲密关系中性别角色的关系,也没有调节出生年份与亲密关系中性别角色和性别刻板印象之间的连锁中介效应。
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian Approach to Diagnosing General Linear Profiles 一般线性剖面诊断的贝叶斯方法
Feng Xu
Apart from quick monitoring of abnormal changes in a multivariate process, it is also critical to accurately identify the cause of abnormal changes after a signal in multivariate statistical process control. Most diagnosis methods focus on the distribution of mass characteristics such as mean and/or variance. But the quality of a process may be better characterized by the relationship between the response variable and one or more explanatory variables in many applications, which is called profile problems in literatures. This paper develops a Bayesian approach to diagnosis parameter shifts in profile process. The proposed approach not only accurately identifies shift parameters but also provides the probabilities of shift parameters. Compared with existing methods, the proposed approach outperforms them.
在多变量统计过程控制中,除了快速监测多变量过程中的异常变化外,准确识别信号发出后异常变化的原因也是至关重要的。大多数诊断方法侧重于质量特征的分布,如平均值和/或方差。但在许多应用中,响应变量与一个或多个解释变量之间的关系可能会更好地表征过程的质量,这在文献中被称为剖面问题。本文提出了一种贝叶斯方法来诊断剖面过程中的参数偏移。该方法不仅能准确识别移位参数,而且能给出移位参数的概率。与现有方法相比,该方法具有明显的优越性。
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引用次数: 0
Cryptocurrency Market Volatility Forecasting 加密货币市场波动预测
Yiming Wang
Although cryptocurrencies are catching the fancy of investors for various benefits such as decentralization, low transaction costs, and inflation hedging, their extreme volatility is sometimes keeping many away. Consequently, modeling and forecasting cryptocurrency market volatility are essential to investors’ investment decisions and risk management. However, most previous studies have been limited to Bitcoin volatility, disregarding cryptocurrency market performance as a whole. This study estimates realized volatility of cryptocurrency market with a variety of algorithms employing a portfolio-style technique. After comparison, LSTM networks surpass the conventional GARCH-type models; meanwhile, the hybrid GARCH neural network models perform the worst. This study provides an impetus for a significant number of academics interested in the extreme volatility of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, it illustrates that more sophisticated models may not always lead to better predictive performance.
尽管加密货币因其去中心化、低交易成本和通胀对冲等各种好处而受到投资者的青睐,但它们的极端波动性有时会让许多人望而却步。因此,建模和预测加密货币市场波动对投资者的投资决策和风险管理至关重要。然而,之前的大多数研究都局限于比特币的波动性,而忽视了整个加密货币市场的表现。本研究通过采用投资组合风格技术的各种算法估计加密货币市场的已实现波动性。经过比较,LSTM网络优于传统的garch型模型;同时,混合GARCH神经网络模型表现最差。这项研究为大量对加密货币的极端波动性感兴趣的学者提供了动力。此外,它说明了更复杂的模型可能并不总是导致更好的预测性能。
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引用次数: 0
Usability Evaluation of Communication Tools Used as Remote Support in Machine Service Industry: A Comparison between Microsoft Teams and Skype 机器服务行业远程支持通信工具的可用性评价:微软团队与Skype的比较
Roland Ross F. Flame, Y. Prasetyo, Reny Nadlifatin, Irene Dyah Ayuwati, S. F. Persada, Thanatorn Chuenyindee
Due to pandemic Covid-19, there is an increase and rough transition into remote work. Communication tools/platforms are softwares used by industries to facilitate different functionalities like remote technical support and communication. Especially for service industries, coordinators and engineers adapted on using these tools to support internal and external communications. For a certain machine service company, Skype and Microsoft Teams are the main communication tools used. The objective of this study is to determine the usability/user experience of these tools of engineers and coordinators on their daily activities. System Usability Scale were used to evaluate their user experience. As interpreted using the Curved Grading Scale, only the use of Microsoft Teams of Coordinators is graded as D, and the rest are graded as F. Based on the results on the user experience of coordinators and engineers using platforms Microsoft Teams and Skype, the low scores show that they are struggling with the usability of these tools due to drastic change and adaptability and limitation of activities that these tools can only perform.
由于2019冠状病毒病(Covid-19)大流行,远程工作有所增加,过渡也很艰难。通信工具/平台是行业使用的软件,用于促进远程技术支持和通信等不同功能。特别是对于服务行业,协调员和工程师适应使用这些工具来支持内部和外部通信。对于某机器服务公司来说,Skype和Microsoft Teams是主要使用的通信工具。本研究的目的是确定工程师和协调员在日常活动中使用这些工具的可用性/用户体验。使用系统可用性量表来评估他们的用户体验。根据曲线评分量表的解释,只有Microsoft Teams of coordinator的使用被评为D,其余的都被评为f。根据协调员和工程师使用Microsoft Teams和Skype平台的用户体验结果,低分数表明他们正在努力解决这些工具的可用性,因为这些工具的变化很大,而且这些工具只能执行活动的适应性和局限性。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Topic Content Prediction of Online Reviews: from the Perspective of Bi-directional Sentiment Classification 网络评论主题内容预测研究:基于双向情感分类的视角
Xiaogang Zhao, Ge Li, Hai Shen, Yiwei Dang, Jun Hou, Siwei Dong
To solve the problem of coarse-grained results in the research of topic content prediction, this paper proposes a prediction method for the topic content from the perspective of bi-directional sentiment classification. Firstly, the method uses SnowNLP to classify the sentiment of online reviews; secondly, LDA model is applied to extract the topics and entropy is used to sort topics; finally, Word2Vec is applied to achieve the prediction of the topic content. Example calculation shows that this method effectively solves the problem of coarse-grained prediction results of online reviews’ topic content, and presents the prediction results from positive and negative sentiments. The average precision of positive topics is 86.67%, and the average precision of negative topics is 80.00%.
为了解决主题内容预测研究中结果粗粒度的问题,本文提出了一种双向情感分类视角下的主题内容预测方法。该方法首先利用SnowNLP对网络评论的情感进行分类;其次,采用LDA模型提取主题,并利用熵对主题进行排序;最后运用Word2Vec实现对主题内容的预测。实例计算表明,该方法有效地解决了在线评论主题内容的粗粒度预测问题,并给出了正面和负面情绪的预测结果。正面话题的平均准确率为86.67%,负面话题的平均准确率为80.00%。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business
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