Asset price forecasting is essential for portfolio decision-making. This paper establishes an asset price prediction model based on LSTM neural network to achieve asset price prediction. First, the historical asset price dataset is used as the training set of the model, and this paper set two hidden layers with 50 and 80 neuron units, respectively. Second, the Adam optimizer is used for the second hidden layer to optimize the neural network and minimize the loss function. Finally, the output layer data of asset price prediction is obtained considering the environment and other factors to achieve accurate price prediction. Meanwhile, this paper constructs a Markowitz-Dynamic programming model based on Markowitz and dynamic programming theories. It uses the output data cost of the prediction model to establish optimal portfolio planning, optimize portfolio decisions, and maximize investment returns. The model shown in this paper has significant reference value for investors' portfolio decisions and is essential to help investors obtain higher investment returns to a greater extent.
{"title":"Optimal Portfolio Model based on LSTM Neural Network and Markovitz Theory","authors":"Yuzhe Chen, Hongming Zhang","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584820","url":null,"abstract":"Asset price forecasting is essential for portfolio decision-making. This paper establishes an asset price prediction model based on LSTM neural network to achieve asset price prediction. First, the historical asset price dataset is used as the training set of the model, and this paper set two hidden layers with 50 and 80 neuron units, respectively. Second, the Adam optimizer is used for the second hidden layer to optimize the neural network and minimize the loss function. Finally, the output layer data of asset price prediction is obtained considering the environment and other factors to achieve accurate price prediction. Meanwhile, this paper constructs a Markowitz-Dynamic programming model based on Markowitz and dynamic programming theories. It uses the output data cost of the prediction model to establish optimal portfolio planning, optimize portfolio decisions, and maximize investment returns. The model shown in this paper has significant reference value for investors' portfolio decisions and is essential to help investors obtain higher investment returns to a greater extent.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"1204 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125998207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study used a single-factor online experiment to explore the effect of the presentation of rumor rebuttal information (direct rebuttal vs. positive-negative rebuttal) on rumor credibility, and the role of emotion and depth of information processing in this process. The findings revealed that direct rebuttal significantly reduced rumor credibility to subjects when compared to no rebuttal, while no significant effect was found in positive-negative rebuttal. In addition, positive emotions, negative emotions, and the depth of information processing triggered by rumors partially mediated the effect of direct rebuttal on rumor credibility. This suggests that the method of rebuttal can significantly influence people's perceptions of rumors, and that direct denial may be more effective than rebuttal through detailed explanations containing both positive and negative information, which is practically valuable for effective rebuttals in social governance.
{"title":"Direct Denial or Positive-Negative Rumor Rebuttal? The Effects of Two Types of Rumor Rebuttal and Their Psychological Mechanisms","authors":"Liuying Chen, Jie Zhou, Zhefei Mao, Qiwei Li","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584843","url":null,"abstract":"This study used a single-factor online experiment to explore the effect of the presentation of rumor rebuttal information (direct rebuttal vs. positive-negative rebuttal) on rumor credibility, and the role of emotion and depth of information processing in this process. The findings revealed that direct rebuttal significantly reduced rumor credibility to subjects when compared to no rebuttal, while no significant effect was found in positive-negative rebuttal. In addition, positive emotions, negative emotions, and the depth of information processing triggered by rumors partially mediated the effect of direct rebuttal on rumor credibility. This suggests that the method of rebuttal can significantly influence people's perceptions of rumors, and that direct denial may be more effective than rebuttal through detailed explanations containing both positive and negative information, which is practically valuable for effective rebuttals in social governance.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122391256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the emergence of highly infectious variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Covid-19 inevitably started to spread in Chinese megacities, where the government used to take adequate measures to suppress the increase of Covid-19 cases since 2020. For instance, in the spring of 2022, Shanghai, a megacity with a population of 30 million, was locked down for two months to restrain the outbreak of Covid-19. In the megacities’ long- term lockdown, fresh food supply tends to be crucial, especially when residents cannot store sufficient fresh vegetables without going out for more than a month. In this case, as an emerging business model, the fresh food e-commerce platforms become residents’ primary source of fresh food supply during the lockdown. The operating strategy of the fresh food e-commerce platforms is of great significance for assisting the government in stabling residents’ moods and realizing the dynamic zero policy, which would also be helpful to their penetration. However, the strict quarantine policy of the government reduces the number of delivery riders resulting in soaring prices, which will influence residents’ decisions of whether to bear economic losses of high prices or physical damages due to lack of food. This paper analyzes the strategic choices between the government, fresh food e-commerce platforms, and residents (consumers) through the evolutionary game model, which provides solid suggestions for possible lockdowns in other Chinese megacities against Covid-19.
{"title":"Evolutionary Game Analysis of Fresh Food Supply Guarantee in China's Megacities Lockdown Against Covid-19","authors":"Xueyi Li, Yusen Zhou","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584826","url":null,"abstract":"With the emergence of highly infectious variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Covid-19 inevitably started to spread in Chinese megacities, where the government used to take adequate measures to suppress the increase of Covid-19 cases since 2020. For instance, in the spring of 2022, Shanghai, a megacity with a population of 30 million, was locked down for two months to restrain the outbreak of Covid-19. In the megacities’ long- term lockdown, fresh food supply tends to be crucial, especially when residents cannot store sufficient fresh vegetables without going out for more than a month. In this case, as an emerging business model, the fresh food e-commerce platforms become residents’ primary source of fresh food supply during the lockdown. The operating strategy of the fresh food e-commerce platforms is of great significance for assisting the government in stabling residents’ moods and realizing the dynamic zero policy, which would also be helpful to their penetration. However, the strict quarantine policy of the government reduces the number of delivery riders resulting in soaring prices, which will influence residents’ decisions of whether to bear economic losses of high prices or physical damages due to lack of food. This paper analyzes the strategic choices between the government, fresh food e-commerce platforms, and residents (consumers) through the evolutionary game model, which provides solid suggestions for possible lockdowns in other Chinese megacities against Covid-19.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130381164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aprillia Kresensia Paseru, Chelsea De Valencia, S. Hendratno
This research aims to discover the factors influencing Gen Z on investment decisions of cryptocurrency in Indonesia. Nowadays, cryptocurrency has become famous as most of Indonesian citizens interested to invest in cryptocurrency. Despite the fact that cryptocurrency fluctuates riskier than other instruments, many people still decide to invest in cryptocurrency, including Gen Z. The method used for this research is qualitative with semi-structured interviews conducted to collect data. Semi-structured interview provides more exploratory and inclusive answers from the respondents to support this research. This research contributes to giving more knowledge and insight particularly about the factors influencing the Gen Z on investment decision in cryptocurrency. The results of this research have shown many factors can influence people to decide investing in cryptocurrency, such as investing in cryptocurrency can generate more profit, 24-hour market, and its fame causing a sense of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) which are related to the Theory of Behavioral Finance. There are some other factors such as community with other investors, influencers in social media, and people around. Those factors are related to the Herding Theory where people are likely to follow other investors’ analysis rather than doing their own research and analysis. These findings propose that investors, especially Gen Z, should improve their self-control as well as investment analysis to decide their investments in cryptocurrency. Further research can explore other factors that may be influential by using quantitative method and by giving out questionnaires to reach out more respondents outside Jabodetabek or even outside Indonesia.
{"title":"Analysis Factors Influencing Gen Z on Investment Decisions of Cryptocurrency in Indonesia","authors":"Aprillia Kresensia Paseru, Chelsea De Valencia, S. Hendratno","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584822","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to discover the factors influencing Gen Z on investment decisions of cryptocurrency in Indonesia. Nowadays, cryptocurrency has become famous as most of Indonesian citizens interested to invest in cryptocurrency. Despite the fact that cryptocurrency fluctuates riskier than other instruments, many people still decide to invest in cryptocurrency, including Gen Z. The method used for this research is qualitative with semi-structured interviews conducted to collect data. Semi-structured interview provides more exploratory and inclusive answers from the respondents to support this research. This research contributes to giving more knowledge and insight particularly about the factors influencing the Gen Z on investment decision in cryptocurrency. The results of this research have shown many factors can influence people to decide investing in cryptocurrency, such as investing in cryptocurrency can generate more profit, 24-hour market, and its fame causing a sense of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) which are related to the Theory of Behavioral Finance. There are some other factors such as community with other investors, influencers in social media, and people around. Those factors are related to the Herding Theory where people are likely to follow other investors’ analysis rather than doing their own research and analysis. These findings propose that investors, especially Gen Z, should improve their self-control as well as investment analysis to decide their investments in cryptocurrency. Further research can explore other factors that may be influential by using quantitative method and by giving out questionnaires to reach out more respondents outside Jabodetabek or even outside Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128296315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Safe-haven assets are a safe and effective value storage and risk hedging tool in the period of market turbulence, while risk assets show multiple characteristics such as the coexistence of high risk and high return, great variability, strong volatility and so on. Taking gold and bitcoin, two typical safe-haven and risk assets, as examples, this paper constructs the ARIMA-XGBoost joint prediction model and predicts the future fluctuation trend of gold and bitcoin; At the same time, the prediction results are used to optimize the parameter allocation of the mean variance model, and the effective frontier of the portfolio is calculated under different constraints. The results show that the RMSE of ARIMA-Xgboost model is 5.3 and 83.6 respectively, and the MAPE is 0.35% and 0.80% respectively; The efficient allocation frontier of the portfolio is its Pareto optimal solution, and when the allocation proportion of a single asset is limited, the overall yield of the portfolio is significantly reduced, but it is better than the result of equal weight allocation; ARIMA-Xgboost model has high prediction accuracy, good stability and strong self-learning and self-adaptive ability, which can provide a certain reference for investors or salespeople to make investment decisions.
{"title":"Fluctuation Trend Prediction and Investment Allocation Optimization of Risk Assets and Safe-haven Assets","authors":"Yeyong Zhang, Yusen Liu, Zih-Yuan Zeng","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584817","url":null,"abstract":"Safe-haven assets are a safe and effective value storage and risk hedging tool in the period of market turbulence, while risk assets show multiple characteristics such as the coexistence of high risk and high return, great variability, strong volatility and so on. Taking gold and bitcoin, two typical safe-haven and risk assets, as examples, this paper constructs the ARIMA-XGBoost joint prediction model and predicts the future fluctuation trend of gold and bitcoin; At the same time, the prediction results are used to optimize the parameter allocation of the mean variance model, and the effective frontier of the portfolio is calculated under different constraints. The results show that the RMSE of ARIMA-Xgboost model is 5.3 and 83.6 respectively, and the MAPE is 0.35% and 0.80% respectively; The efficient allocation frontier of the portfolio is its Pareto optimal solution, and when the allocation proportion of a single asset is limited, the overall yield of the portfolio is significantly reduced, but it is better than the result of equal weight allocation; ARIMA-Xgboost model has high prediction accuracy, good stability and strong self-learning and self-adaptive ability, which can provide a certain reference for investors or salespeople to make investment decisions.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126035203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Miller F. Narvas, Y. Prasetyo, Reny Nadlifatin, Irene Dyah Ayuwati, S. F. Persada
Non-conformance cost is one of the key performance indicators in determining the success of executing a project. This study will substantiate the significance of two consecutive fiscal years of non-conformance cost data set in project execution of smart grid. A two-Sample T-Test was used to compare the means of two consecutive years' data sets. All the results of both fiscal years' data set were insignificant. Since it is insignificant, the best recommendation is to thoroughly review the lessons learned from the previous projects and implementation of preventive actions to mitigate or even prevent the occurrence/ reoccurrence of non-conformance and non-conformance costs. A continuous improvement in preventing failures will assure success and increase the profitability margin of the project.
{"title":"Determining the Significance of Two Consecutive Fiscal Years of Non-Conformance Cost Data Set in Project Execution of Smart Grid","authors":"Miller F. Narvas, Y. Prasetyo, Reny Nadlifatin, Irene Dyah Ayuwati, S. F. Persada","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584836","url":null,"abstract":"Non-conformance cost is one of the key performance indicators in determining the success of executing a project. This study will substantiate the significance of two consecutive fiscal years of non-conformance cost data set in project execution of smart grid. A two-Sample T-Test was used to compare the means of two consecutive years' data sets. All the results of both fiscal years' data set were insignificant. Since it is insignificant, the best recommendation is to thoroughly review the lessons learned from the previous projects and implementation of preventive actions to mitigate or even prevent the occurrence/ reoccurrence of non-conformance and non-conformance costs. A continuous improvement in preventing failures will assure success and increase the profitability margin of the project.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114387692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Technological transformation, especially in the digital realm, can bring enormous benefits and open up new opportunities. The purpose of this study is to examine the ability of Indonesian tax consultants in adopting tax technology transformation and how their personality traits influence it. This survey may serve as a matrix for tax consulting firms in selecting attributes to consider when hiring consultants. This study explores the relationships between Indonesian tax consultants’ personality traits and tax technology transformation. Samples obtained from online questionnaires were 112 tax consultants. The data is analyzed using SEM PLS method. The results show that Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness give partly or wholly positive relation to Digital Maturity.
{"title":"The Success Factors on Tax Technology Transformation: Assessment of Personality Traits and Digital Maturity among Indonesian Tax Consultants","authors":"Amanda Benedicta Nursalim, Jocelyn Novita, Levana Dhia Prawati","doi":"10.1145/3584816.3584819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3584816.3584819","url":null,"abstract":"Technological transformation, especially in the digital realm, can bring enormous benefits and open up new opportunities. The purpose of this study is to examine the ability of Indonesian tax consultants in adopting tax technology transformation and how their personality traits influence it. This survey may serve as a matrix for tax consulting firms in selecting attributes to consider when hiring consultants. This study explores the relationships between Indonesian tax consultants’ personality traits and tax technology transformation. Samples obtained from online questionnaires were 112 tax consultants. The data is analyzed using SEM PLS method. The results show that Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness give partly or wholly positive relation to Digital Maturity.","PeriodicalId":113982,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2023 6th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132023645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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