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Retail Financial Advice: Does One Size Fit All? 零售金融建议:一种方式适合所有人吗?
Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2522934
Stephen R. Foerster, Juhani T. Linnainmaa, Brian T. Melzer, Alessandro Previtero
Using unique data on Canadian households, we assess the impact of financial advisors on their clients' portfolios. We find that advisors induce their clients to take more risk, thereby raising expected returns. On the other hand, we find limited evidence of customization: advisors direct clients into similar portfolios independent of their clients' risk preferences and stage in the life cycle. An advisor's own portfolio is a good predictor of the client's portfolio even after controlling for the client's characteristics. This one-size-fits-all advice does not come cheap. The average client pays more than 2.7% each year in fees and thus gives up all of the equity premium gained through increased risk-taking.
利用加拿大家庭的独特数据,我们评估了财务顾问对其客户投资组合的影响。我们发现,顾问会诱使客户承担更大的风险,从而提高预期回报。另一方面,我们发现了有限的定制证据:顾问将客户引导到类似的投资组合中,而不考虑客户的风险偏好和生命周期的阶段。即使在控制了客户的特点之后,投资顾问自己的投资组合也能很好地预测客户的投资组合。这种一刀切的建议并不便宜。客户平均每年支付的费用超过2.7%,因此放弃了所有通过增加风险承担而获得的股权溢价。
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引用次数: 125
Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk 逆周期家庭消费风险下的资产定价
Pub Date : 2014-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2395522
G. Constantinides, Anish Ghosh
We show that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and drive asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences. A single state variable drives the conditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth. The estimated model fits well the unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are procyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross-section of excess returns.
我们表明,对家庭消费增长的冲击是负偏的、持续的、逆周期的,并推动资产价格。我们构建了一个精简模型,其中异构家庭具有递归偏好。单一状态变量驱动家庭消费增长的条件横截面时刻。估计模型与居民消费增长的无条件横截面时刻、无风险利率时刻、股权溢价时刻、价格股息比时刻、总股息时刻和消费增长时刻拟合良好。模型隐含的无风险率和市股息率是顺周期的,而市场收益具有逆周期的均值和方差。最后,家庭消费风险解释了超额收益的横截面。
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引用次数: 107
Does the Fed Control Interest Rates? 美联储控制利率吗?
Pub Date : 2013-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2124039
E. Fama
To what extent does TF, the target Federal funds rate set by the Fed, influence other rates? There is lots of variation in rates unrelated to TF, and any effects of TF on rates dissipate quickly for longer maturities. For short rates, all the tests have interpretations in terms of: (i) a Fed that has the power to control rates and uses it, and (ii) a Fed that has little power over rates or chooses not to exercise its power. In the end, there is no conclusive evidence (here or elsewhere) on the role of the Fed versus market forces in the long-term path of interest rates.
美联储设定的联邦基金目标利率TF在多大程度上影响其他利率?利率有许多与流动性无关的变化,而流动性对利率的任何影响在较长的期限内都会迅速消散。对于短期利率,所有的测试都有如下解释:(i)美联储有权控制并使用利率,(ii)美联储对利率几乎没有权力或选择不行使其权力。最后,没有确凿的证据(无论是在这里还是在其他地方)证明美联储与市场力量在长期利率路径上的作用。
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引用次数: 50
The Impact of Government Interventions on CDS and Equity Markets 政府干预对CDS和股票市场的影响
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1573377
Frederic A. Schweikhard, Zoe Tsesmelidakis
We question the impact of government guarantees on the pricing of default risk in credit and stock markets and, using a Merton-type credit model, provide evidence of a structural break in the valuation of U.S. bank debt in the course of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, manifesting in a lowered default boundary, or, under the pre-crisis regime, in higher stock-implied credit spreads. A possible explanation is the asymmetric treatment of debt and equity in rescue measures, which tend to favor creditors. The discrepancies are driven by several factors including firm size, default correlation, and high ratings, thus corroborating our too-big-to-fail hypothesis.
我们质疑政府担保对信贷和股票市场违约风险定价的影响,并使用默顿型信贷模型,提供了2007-2009年金融危机期间美国银行债务估值结构性断裂的证据,表现为违约边界降低,或者在危机前的制度下,表现为更高的股票隐含信用利差。一个可能的解释是,在救助措施中,债务和股权的待遇不对称,往往有利于债权人。这些差异是由几个因素造成的,包括公司规模、违约相关性和高评级,从而证实了我们的“大到不能倒”假设。
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引用次数: 80
Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-Wide Government Guarantees 太过系统性而不能倒闭:期权市场对全部门政府担保的暗示
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1762312
B. Kelly, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in U.S. option markets. A large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the price of financial sector crash insurance during the financial crisis. The difference in costs of out-of-the-money put options for individual banks, and puts on the financial sector index, increases fourfold from its pre-crisis 2003-2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector, which lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks, explains the divergence in the basket-index put spread.
本文研究了2007-2009年金融危机期间美国期权市场金融崩溃保险的定价。在金融危机期间,金融部门崩溃保险的价格中遗漏了大量的总体尾部风险。各家银行的价外看跌期权成本之差,以及金融行业看跌期权指数之差,较2003-2007年危机前的水平增加了4倍。我们提供的证据表明,政府对金融部门的集体担保,对指数看跌期权价格的降低远远超过对单个银行的降低,解释了篮子指数看跌期权价差的差异。
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引用次数: 263
Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much? 为什么(一些)家庭交易如此之多?
Pub Date : 2010-12-11 DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhr009
Juhani T. Linnainmaa
When agents can learn about their abilities as active investors, they rationally "trade to learn" even if they expect to lose from active investing. The model used to develop this insight draws conclusions that are consistent with empirical study of household trading behavior: Households' portfolios underperform passive investments; their trading intensity depends on past performance; and they begin by trading small sums of money. Using household data from Finland, the paper estimates a structural model of learning and trading. The estimated model shows that investors trade to learn even if they are pessimistic about their abilities as traders. It also demonstrates that realized returns are significantly downward-biased measures of investors' true abilities.
当代理人能够了解自己作为积极投资者的能力时,他们会理性地“通过交易来学习”,即使他们预计会因积极投资而亏损。用于发展这一见解的模型得出的结论与家庭交易行为的实证研究一致:家庭的投资组合表现不如被动投资;它们的交易强度取决于过去的表现;他们从小额资金交易开始。利用芬兰的家庭数据,本文估计了一个学习和交易的结构模型。估计模型表明,即使投资者对自己的交易能力感到悲观,他们也会通过交易来学习。研究还表明,已实现收益是衡量投资者真实能力的显著下偏指标。
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引用次数: 93
Chilean Stock Market Expected Return Analysis: A Variance Decomposition 智利股市预期收益分析:方差分解
Pub Date : 2010-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1681822
Ercos Valdivieso
The main objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of expectation changes about discount rate and dividend growth rate over the Chilean market portfolio returns. The model applied was taken from the works of Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1988a), Campbell (1991) and Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2005). The model expresses the unexpected returns as a function of two components related with: (i). news about future dividends growth and (ii). news about future returns of the market portfolio. The results obtained for the period of 1995-2005 show that the component of news about future dividends explains most of the unexpected portfolio returns variance, contrary to Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2005) find in the US data. Indeed, the differences are explained by the lower persistence observed in the variables utilized in estimates; thus, the long term return forecasting is less acute, which augments the estimation errors and finally, the news about dividends growth importance. Considering some feature of the Chilean stock market such as legal, tax, ownership concentration and information quality, news about future returns should not be as important as in the US stock market. The model also allows to divide, the traditional beta of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in two components, i.e.: (i). a component related with the future cash flows and (ii). a component which reflect the relationship between the stock returns with the discount rates of the market portfolio. The results show that the high return observed in the small-value stocks, it due to their beta is predominated for the cash flow risk component. Thus, the adjustment obtained when beta is separating in these components improves relatively with those resulted from the traditional method. Unlike US, in Chile have not been developed a formal methodology that quantifies the incidence of changes in expectations of discount rates and dividends over stock prices. Additionally, this work is the first in applying an approach of decomposition of the systematic risk in Chilean data.
本文的主要目的是量化折现率和股息增长率的预期变化对智利市场投资组合回报的影响。所采用的模型取自Campbell and Shiller (1988,1988a)、Campbell(1991)和Campbell and Vuolteenaho(2005)的著作。该模型将意外收益表示为两个组成部分的函数,这两个组成部分与:(i)有关未来股息增长的消息和(ii)有关市场投资组合未来收益的消息有关。1995-2005年期间获得的结果表明,有关未来股息的新闻成分解释了大部分意外投资组合回报方差,这与Campbell和Vuolteenaho(2005)在美国数据中的发现相反。事实上,这些差异可以解释为,在估计中使用的变量中观察到的持久性较低;因此,长期回报预测不那么敏锐,这增加了估计误差,最后,关于股息增长重要性的消息。考虑到智利股市的一些特点,如法律、税收、股权集中度和信息质量,有关未来回报的消息不应像美国股市那样重要。该模型还允许将资本资产定价模型(CAPM)的传统贝塔分为两个部分,即:(i)与未来现金流量相关的部分和(ii)反映股票收益与市场投资组合贴现率之间关系的部分。结果表明,在现金流风险成分中,由于小价值股票的贝塔系数占主导地位,小价值股票的收益较高。因此,在这些组分中分离β时得到的平差比传统方法得到的平差有了相对的提高。与美国不同的是,智利尚未开发出一种正式的方法来量化贴现率和股息预期变化对股价的影响。此外,这项工作是首次在智利数据中应用系统风险分解方法。
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引用次数: 0
Structure and Determinants of Financial Covenants in Leveraged Buyouts 杠杆收购中金融契约的结构和决定因素
Pub Date : 2010-08-20 DOI: 10.1093/ROF/RFQ031
A. Achleitner, R. Braun, Bastian Hinterramskogler, Florian Tappeiner
We use a proprietary dataset to explore (i) the financial covenant structure and (ii) the determinants of their restrictiveness in leveraged buyouts. With respect to (i) we find that the covenant structure is more standardized in sponsored than in non-sponsored loans: the former show less variation in the included types and combinations of covenants and include more financial covenants than the latter. With respect to (ii) we measure financial covenant restrictiveness precisely as the distance between threshold and financial forecast. We show that two competing mechanisms, reduced information asymmetry costs and increased financial risk, affect the restrictiveness in sponsored loans.
我们使用专有数据集来探索(i)金融契约结构和(ii)杠杆收购中其限制性的决定因素。关于(i),我们发现担保贷款的契约结构比非担保贷款的契约结构更加标准化:前者在契约的类型和组合方面表现出较少的变化,并且比后者包含更多的金融契约。关于(ii),我们将金融契约限制性精确地衡量为阈值与财务预测之间的距离。我们发现两种竞争机制,即信息不对称成本的降低和金融风险的增加,影响了担保贷款的限制性。
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引用次数: 43
The Impact of Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, and Money Supply On Stock Prices 通货膨胀、GDP、失业和货币供给对股票价格的影响
Pub Date : 2009-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1529254
Lena Saeed Shiblee
Knowledge of stock price behavior is very important for investor. This price is influenced by a number of factors in the financial market. Four of the most important factors that affect the stock price are; inflation, GDP, unemployment, and money supply. This paper shows the different effects of; inflation, GDP, unemployment, and money supply on stock price of industrial sector. To examine the different sensitivity of stocks according to what sector it belongs to. The study is done on New York exchange. Chose indefinite companies, from the sector we mentioned, and take CPI as an example of inflation, because it is the closet to the investor decision. We get our data (the rate of CPI and the GDP –M1 & money supply) from Federal Reserve web site; during the period 1994-2007 .The findings show according to our samples that, the four independent variables have different effects on this sector. The strongest variable effect among our collection was money supply; it has a strong positive influence at most companies in our sample. The second variable was CPI as for inflation, and unemployment, both have a weak influence on most companies.
了解股票价格行为对投资者来说是非常重要的。这个价格受到金融市场上许多因素的影响。影响股价的四个最重要的因素是;通货膨胀,GDP,失业和货币供给。本文展示了;通货膨胀、GDP、失业率和货币供应量对工业部门股票价格的影响。考察不同行业股票的不同敏感性。这项研究是在纽约交易所进行的。从我们提到的行业中选择不确定的公司,并将CPI作为通货膨胀的例子,因为它最接近投资者的决策。我们从美联储网站上获得我们的数据(CPI和GDP -M1和货币供应量);研究结果表明,根据我们的样本,四个自变量对该部门有不同的影响。在我们的收集中,最强大的变量效应是货币供应量;在我们的样本中,它对大多数公司都有很强的积极影响。第二个变量是CPI,即通货膨胀和失业率,两者对大多数公司的影响都很弱。
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引用次数: 32
The Experimental Study of Asset Pricing Theory 资产定价理论的实验研究
Pub Date : 2009-11-03 DOI: 10.1561/0500000022
P. Bossaerts
This monograph sets the stage for experiments by first examining a sample data set that looks very much like the typical historical data one gathers from the field, only it was actually generated in the laboratory so that we know what really went on. The example demonstrates how misleading the traditional analysis can be. It then moves on to discuss risk aversion, since asset pricing theory builds on risk aversion. The issue is — is there enough risk aversion in the laboratory given typical levels of compensation? Asset pricing theory also builds on competitive markets and competitive equilibrium, but these are actually purely abstract notions, without any suggestion of how to generate them in practice. The article builds on the path-breaking experimental work of Vernon Smith and Charles Plott who demonstrated that certain trading institutions indeed allow us to bring about competitive markets and competitive equilibrium. The author presents the main findings — first concerning simple static asset pricing models, moving on to dynamic pricing theory, and the implications of ambiguity aversion. Asset pricing theory rarely discusses how markets reach equilibrium, but experiments shed new light on price behavior during equilibration, as well as on off-equilibrium allocation dynamics. This monograph also examines information aggregation and competitive markets for loan and insurance contracts, where adverse selection may preclude equilibration, and even when not, the resulting allocations may be Pareto sub-optimal.
这本专著为实验奠定了基础,首先检查了一个样本数据集,它看起来非常像人们从实地收集的典型历史数据,只是它实际上是在实验室中生成的,这样我们就知道真正发生了什么。这个例子说明了传统的分析是多么具有误导性。接着讨论了风险厌恶,因为资产定价理论建立在风险厌恶的基础上。问题是,考虑到典型的薪酬水平,实验室中是否有足够的风险规避?资产定价理论也建立在竞争市场和竞争均衡的基础上,但这些实际上是纯粹的抽象概念,没有任何关于如何在实践中产生它们的建议。这篇文章建立在弗农·史密斯和查尔斯·普罗特开创性的实验工作的基础上,他们证明了某些交易机构确实允许我们实现竞争市场和竞争均衡。作者提出了主要的发现——首先是关于简单的静态资产定价模型,接着是动态定价理论,以及模糊性规避的含义。资产定价理论很少讨论市场如何达到均衡,但实验揭示了均衡期间的价格行为,以及非均衡配置动态。本专著还研究了贷款和保险合同的信息聚合和竞争市场,其中逆向选择可能会排除均衡,即使没有,结果分配也可能是帕累托次优的。
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引用次数: 14
期刊
Chicago Booth: Fama-Miller Working Paper Series
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