We build a competitive equilibrium model of securitization in the presence of demand for safety by some investors. Securitization allows to create safe assets by pooling idiosyncratic risks from loan originators, leading to higher aggregate loan issuance. Yet, the distribution of loan risks out of their originators creates a moral hazard problem. An increase in the demand for safety leads to a securitization boom and riskier originated loans. When demand for safety is high, welfare is Pareto higher than in an economy with no securitization despite the origination of riskier loans. Aggregate lending expansions driven by demand for safety may, paradoxically, lead to riskier loan issuance than expansions driven by standard credit supply shocks.
{"title":"Demand for Safety, Risky Loans: A Model of Securitization","authors":"Anatoli Segura Velez, Alonso Villacorta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612804","url":null,"abstract":"We build a competitive equilibrium model of securitization in the presence of demand for safety by some investors. Securitization allows to create safe assets by pooling idiosyncratic risks from loan originators, leading to higher aggregate loan issuance. Yet, the distribution of loan risks out of their originators creates a moral hazard problem. An increase in the demand for safety leads to a securitization boom and riskier originated loans. When demand for safety is high, welfare is Pareto higher than in an economy with no securitization despite the origination of riskier loans. Aggregate lending expansions driven by demand for safety may, paradoxically, lead to riskier loan issuance than expansions driven by standard credit supply shocks.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77906984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.04
Ronel Elul, Deeksha Gupta, David K. Musto
When home prices threaten to decline, lenders bearing more of a community’s mortgage risk have an incentive to combat this decline with new lending that boosts demand. We test whether this incentive drove the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to guarantee riskier mortgages in early 2007, as the chance of substantial declines grew from small to significant. To identify the effect we relate new risky lending to regional variation in the GSEs’ exposure and the interaction of this variation with home-price elasticity. We focus on the GSEs’ discretion across potential purchases by reference to the credit-score threshold that triggers manual underwriting. We conclude that this incentive helps explain the GSEs’ expansion of risky lending shortly before the financial crisis.
{"title":"Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times","authors":"Ronel Elul, Deeksha Gupta, David K. Musto","doi":"10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.04","url":null,"abstract":"When home prices threaten to decline, lenders bearing more of a community’s mortgage risk have an incentive to combat this decline with new lending that boosts demand. We test whether this incentive drove the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to guarantee riskier mortgages in early 2007, as the chance of substantial declines grew from small to significant. To identify the effect we relate new risky lending to regional variation in the GSEs’ exposure and the interaction of this variation with home-price elasticity. We focus on the GSEs’ discretion across potential purchases by reference to the credit-score threshold that triggers manual underwriting. We conclude that this incentive helps explain the GSEs’ expansion of risky lending shortly before the financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76387974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Small business lending has historically been very local, but distances between small businesses and their lenders have steadily increased over the last forty years. This paper investigates a new lending strategy made possible by distant small business lending: industry specialization. Using data on all Small Business Administration 7(a) loans from 2001-2017, we document a substantial increase in remote, specialized small business lenders, i.e., lenders that originate many distant loans and concentrate these loans within a small number of industries. These lenders target low-risk industries and, consistent with expertise, experience better loan performance within these industries. We then examine whether this industry-specialized lending serves as a substitute or complement to traditional, geographically specialized lending. We exploit the staggered entry of a remote, specialized lender to estimate the impact of specialized lending on credit access. Entry significantly increases total lending, with no evidence of substitution away from other lenders. The results indicate that specialized lending can deepen credit markets by providing new loans to low-risk but underfinanced small businesses.
{"title":"Distant Lending, Specialization, and Access to Credit","authors":"Wenhua Di, Nathaniel Pattison","doi":"10.24149/wp2003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2003","url":null,"abstract":"Small business lending has historically been very local, but distances between small businesses and their lenders have steadily increased over the last forty years. This paper investigates a new lending strategy made possible by distant small business lending: industry specialization. Using data on all Small Business Administration 7(a) loans from 2001-2017, we document a substantial increase in remote, specialized small business lenders, i.e., lenders that originate many distant loans and concentrate these loans within a small number of industries. These lenders target low-risk industries and, consistent with expertise, experience better loan performance within these industries. We then examine whether this industry-specialized lending serves as a substitute or complement to traditional, geographically specialized lending. We exploit the staggered entry of a remote, specialized lender to estimate the impact of specialized lending on credit access. Entry significantly increases total lending, with no evidence of substitution away from other lenders. The results indicate that specialized lending can deepen credit markets by providing new loans to low-risk but underfinanced small businesses.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91462267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses loan-level data to investigate heterogeneity in loan prepayment incidence, and argues that refinancing is affected by a mortgage pricing convention that underestimates co-borrowers' actual creditworthiness. Specifically, we find a substantial difference in prepayment incidence between sole borrowers and co-borrowers. We also find this difference to vary across sub-sets of co-borrowers in a predictable manner. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit the variation across time in mortgage rates to confirm that the difference in prepayment incidence exists only during a period of declining mortgage rates. At an aggregate level, we find that geographic areas with higher concentration of co-borrowers are having a higher prepayment rate. These results are directly relevant to the valuation of mortgage-backed securities by offering an additional explanation for the observed variation in refinancing decisions that is related to institutional aspects of the loan process.
{"title":"Refinance Incidence and Information Loss in Predicting Prepayment Risk","authors":"K. Tzioumis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3510992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3510992","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses loan-level data to investigate heterogeneity in loan prepayment incidence, and argues that refinancing is affected by a mortgage pricing convention that underestimates co-borrowers' actual creditworthiness. Specifically, we find a substantial difference in prepayment incidence between sole borrowers and co-borrowers. We also find this difference to vary across sub-sets of co-borrowers in a predictable manner. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit the variation across time in mortgage rates to confirm that the difference in prepayment incidence exists only during a period of declining mortgage rates. At an aggregate level, we find that geographic areas with higher concentration of co-borrowers are having a higher prepayment rate. These results are directly relevant to the valuation of mortgage-backed securities by offering an additional explanation for the observed variation in refinancing decisions that is related to institutional aspects of the loan process.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77513981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper examines the impact of bank consolidation on financial inter-mediation using data from the Nigerian bank industry from 2002 to 2010. Two models were specified and estimated: one for the lending activity and the other for the deposit activities. The model for lending activity has an interest rate on the loan as the dependent variable and deposit rate represents the dependent variable in the deposit model. The results showed that merger and acquisition, which was the main policy instrument for bank consolidation, has a significant effect on both lending and deposit activities of the banks in Nigeria. The result also shows that changes in the degree of average competition in bank markets proxied by the spread between interest rate among the banks is positive and significant in both the loan and deposit markets. This confirms the high level of price competition among the banks. The consolidation exercise had significant positive effects on both financial inter-mediation and especially on deposit mobilization. The study concluded though, the consolidation policy might have had other side effects, it has at least led to higher deposit mobilization, higher competition but however, it has led to higher cost of borrowing and spread between lending and deposit rates.
{"title":"The Impact of Merger and Acquisition on Financial Intermediation: Empirical Evidence from Nigerian Banking Industry","authors":"O. Saibu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3510430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3510430","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the impact of bank consolidation on financial inter-mediation using data from the Nigerian bank industry from 2002 to 2010. Two models were specified and estimated: one for the lending activity and the other for the deposit activities. The model for lending activity has an interest rate on the loan as the dependent variable and deposit rate represents the dependent variable in the deposit model. The results showed that merger and acquisition, which was the main policy instrument for bank consolidation, has a significant effect on both lending and deposit activities of the banks in Nigeria. The result also shows that changes in the degree of average competition in bank markets proxied by the spread between interest rate among the banks is positive and significant in both the loan and deposit markets. This confirms the high level of price competition among the banks. The consolidation exercise had significant positive effects on both financial inter-mediation and especially on deposit mobilization. The study concluded though, the consolidation policy might have had other side effects, it has at least led to higher deposit mobilization, higher competition but however, it has led to higher cost of borrowing and spread between lending and deposit rates.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79029981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banks are crucial enablers of financial and economic development. They have an immense corporate social responsibility (CSR) towards society. Bank´s CSR activities are considered increasingly vital for their own success and sustainable growth, especially as they operate in a business environment with multiple stakeholder demands and an increasing awareness of CSR. In 2014, an CSR-Directive was established. The ultimate aim of the Directive is to encourage a more sustainable economy by strengthening both the comparability and relevance of non-financial information disclosure across the European Union (EU). The Directive was required to be adopted by banks and other companies for financial year 2017. This study analyses the quality of the CSR information discloses by 76 banks in the European Monetary Union (EM) in the years 2017 and 2018. To assess the quality of the reported information a disclosure index study was conducted. Furthermore, an OLS regression was performed to test seven hypotheses concerning the relationship between the extend of the banks´ CSR reporting and size, profitability, common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, number of pages containing CSR information, ownership type, availability of an external audit, and communication channel used. In addition, the banks´ reported commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) are presented, and the disclosed information on the extent to which climate-change related risks are integrated in the banks´ risk management framework for lending activities are addressed.
{"title":"Corporate Social Responsibility Reports of European Banks – An Empirical Analysis of the Disclosure Quality and its Determinants","authors":"Edgar Loew, Deborah Klein, Adrian Pavicevac","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3514159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3514159","url":null,"abstract":"Banks are crucial enablers of financial and economic development. They have an immense corporate social responsibility (CSR) towards society. Bank´s CSR activities are considered increasingly vital for their own success and sustainable growth, especially as they operate in a business environment with multiple stakeholder demands and an increasing awareness of CSR. In 2014, an CSR-Directive was established. The ultimate aim of the Directive is to encourage a more sustainable economy by strengthening both the comparability and relevance of non-financial information disclosure across the European Union (EU). The Directive was required to be adopted by banks and other companies for financial year 2017. This study analyses the quality of the CSR information discloses by 76 banks in the European Monetary Union (EM) in the years 2017 and 2018. To assess the quality of the reported information a disclosure index study was conducted. Furthermore, an OLS regression was performed to test seven hypotheses concerning the relationship between the extend of the banks´ CSR reporting and size, profitability, common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, number of pages containing CSR information, ownership type, availability of an external audit, and communication channel used. In addition, the banks´ reported commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) are presented, and the disclosed information on the extent to which climate-change related risks are integrated in the banks´ risk management framework for lending activities are addressed.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84121816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accounting research has long claimed that banks time sales of available-for-sale securities to smooth earnings. We find that what the prior literature calls smoothing is more accurately characterized as boosting of low earnings. That is, the “smoothing” behavior is asymmetric, occurring at the low end of the earnings distribution, where banks sell at gains to boost low earnings. Furthermore, the intent behind some of this gain-selling at the low end of the earnings distribution appears to be to manage reported earnings from negative to positive, rather than to create a smooth earnings path. We also find that these gain-selling tendencies are of low frequency. At the high end of the earnings distribution, we find little statistically or economically significant earnings smoothing via realization of securities losses or realization of smaller-than-normal securities gains. Previously unavailable data that separates the net realized gain/loss into its gross components reveals that banks generally are reluctant to sell securities at losses, and when they do realize losses they typically offset the losses with realized gains. Overall, results suggest that when accounting standards insulate earnings from unrealized changes in security fair values, the primary form of earnings management that occurs is occasional gain-selling to boost low earnings or beat the zero-earnings benchmark.
{"title":"Do Banks Really Sell Securities to Smooth Earnings?","authors":"J. Aland, Jeffrey J. Burks","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3506414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3506414","url":null,"abstract":"Accounting research has long claimed that banks time sales of available-for-sale securities to smooth earnings. We find that what the prior literature calls smoothing is more accurately characterized as boosting of low earnings. That is, the “smoothing” behavior is asymmetric, occurring at the low end of the earnings distribution, where banks sell at gains to boost low earnings. Furthermore, the intent behind some of this gain-selling at the low end of the earnings distribution appears to be to manage reported earnings from negative to positive, rather than to create a smooth earnings path. We also find that these gain-selling tendencies are of low frequency. At the high end of the earnings distribution, we find little statistically or economically significant earnings smoothing via realization of securities losses or realization of smaller-than-normal securities gains. Previously unavailable data that separates the net realized gain/loss into its gross components reveals that banks generally are reluctant to sell securities at losses, and when they do realize losses they typically offset the losses with realized gains. Overall, results suggest that when accounting standards insulate earnings from unrealized changes in security fair values, the primary form of earnings management that occurs is occasional gain-selling to boost low earnings or beat the zero-earnings benchmark.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76839505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike traditional firm production, gig economy workers provide their own physical capital. As a consequence, the low‐income households for whom gig economy opportunities are most valuable often borrow to participate. In the context of ride‐share, difference‐in‐difference analysis reveals increased vehicle purchases, borrowing, utilization, and employment around entry, but financially constrained individuals cannot participate. To assess the equilibrium importance of financing, I build and estimate a structural model of the gig economy. Access to finance proves critical for the gig economy's growth: without finance, equilibrium quantities would be 40% lower and prices 90% higher, and only higher‐income households could participate as drivers.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
{"title":"Financing the Gig Economy","authors":"Greg Buchak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3766338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3766338","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike traditional firm production, gig economy workers provide their own physical capital. As a consequence, the low‐income households for whom gig economy opportunities are most valuable often borrow to participate. In the context of ride‐share, difference‐in‐difference analysis reveals increased vehicle purchases, borrowing, utilization, and employment around entry, but financially constrained individuals cannot participate. To assess the equilibrium importance of financing, I build and estimate a structural model of the gig economy. Access to finance proves critical for the gig economy's growth: without finance, equilibrium quantities would be 40% lower and prices 90% higher, and only higher‐income households could participate as drivers.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73733876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deposits flow out of the US banking system in January and February and flow in later in the year. In response to this outflow, banks increase rates on retail deposit products in January, including time, savings, and money market deposit accounts. Banks tend to offer highest deposit rates in January, after which the rates decline monotonically, reaching the minimum in December. The effect is more pronounced after the financial crisis, when banks relied less on nondeposit borrowings to replace outflowing liquidity. Consistent with the seasonal outflow of deposits, increased reliance on deposits, especially demand deposits, is associated with a stronger January effect in deposit rates at the bank level.
{"title":"Deposit Flow Seasonalities and the January Effect in Retail Deposit Rates","authors":"Vladimir Kotomin, A. Meshcheryakov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3491403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3491403","url":null,"abstract":"Deposits flow out of the US banking system in January and February and flow in later in the year. In response to this outflow, banks increase rates on retail deposit products in January, including time, savings, and money market deposit accounts. Banks tend to offer highest deposit rates in January, after which the rates decline monotonically, reaching the minimum in December. The effect is more pronounced after the financial crisis, when banks relied less on nondeposit borrowings to replace outflowing liquidity. Consistent with the seasonal outflow of deposits, increased reliance on deposits, especially demand deposits, is associated with a stronger January effect in deposit rates at the bank level.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87300077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Les crises bancaires peuvent etre extremement couteuses. La detection precoce des vulnerabilites peut aider a prevenir ou a attenuer ces couts. Nous developpons un modele d’alerte precoce des crises bancaires systemiques qui combine la technologie d’arbre de regression avec un algorithme statistique (CRAGGING), dans le but d’ameliorer sa precision et de surmonter les inconvenients des modeles precedemment utilises. Notre modele possede un large eventail de fonctionnalites souhaitables. Il fournit des seuils critiques determines de maniere endogene pour un ensemble d’indicateurs utiles, presentes sous la forme intuitive d’une structure d’arbre de decision. Notre cadre prend en compte les relations conditionnelles entre differents indicateurs lors de la fixation des seuils d’alerte precoce. Cela facilite la production de signaux d’alerte precoce precis par rapport aux signaux d’un modele logit et d’un arbre de regression standard. Notre modele suggere egalement que des agregats de credits eleves, a la fois en termes de volume et par rapport a une tendance a long terme, ainsi qu’une faible perception du risque de marche, sont parmi les indicateurs les plus importants pour predire l’accumulation de vulnerabilites dans le secteur bancaire.
{"title":"Learning from Trees: A Mixed Approach to Building Early Warning Systems for Systemic Banking Crises","authors":"Carmine Gabriele","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3486928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3486928","url":null,"abstract":"Les crises bancaires peuvent etre extremement couteuses. La detection precoce des vulnerabilites peut aider a prevenir ou a attenuer ces couts. Nous developpons un modele d’alerte precoce des crises bancaires systemiques qui combine la technologie d’arbre de regression avec un algorithme statistique (CRAGGING), dans le but d’ameliorer sa precision et de surmonter les inconvenients des modeles precedemment utilises. Notre modele possede un large eventail de fonctionnalites souhaitables. Il fournit des seuils critiques determines de maniere endogene pour un ensemble d’indicateurs utiles, presentes sous la forme intuitive d’une structure d’arbre de decision. Notre cadre prend en compte les relations conditionnelles entre differents indicateurs lors de la fixation des seuils d’alerte precoce. Cela facilite la production de signaux d’alerte precoce precis par rapport aux signaux d’un modele logit et d’un arbre de regression standard. Notre modele suggere egalement que des agregats de credits eleves, a la fois en termes de volume et par rapport a une tendance a long terme, ainsi qu’une faible perception du risque de marche, sont parmi les indicateurs les plus importants pour predire l’accumulation de vulnerabilites dans le secteur bancaire.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76949270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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