The EU bank resolution framework relies heavily on banks' internal capacity for loss-absorption and recapitalization through the issuance of bail-inable financial instruments (MREL). Meanwhile, the existing collective funding arrangements (resolution and deposit insurance funds) seem inadequate to support other alternatives, such as resolution transfer strategies or administrative liquidation. Based on resolution experience and evidence thus far, such regulatory architecture cannot work effectively on all EU banks regardless of size and business model. Many retail banks – both significant and less significant with deposits higher than 40% of their total liabilities and own funds (TLOF) – struggle to comply with the existing framework due to their funding model and difficulty to tap capital markets. Ultimately, efforts to improve their resolvability could threaten their viability. In order to improve the resolvability of retail banks, regulators need to enhance resolution transfer strategies which would ultimately reduce MREL requirements. Credible transfer strategies though require credible financing arrangements when a buyer is not readily available. Therefore, resolution funds would need to be able to contribute more than the current 5% TLOF in order to credibly supplement bail-in. Otherwise, regulators should incentivize banks to establish voluntary collective industry funds – similar or identical to institutional protection schemes, which would finance transfer-based resolution strategies integrated into the resolution plans. Participation in such voluntary funds would occur in exchange for lower MREL requirements. The use of transfer strategies in conjunction with the establishment of voluntary industry funds would significantly reduce MREL requirements for retail banks.
{"title":"Making Retail Banks Resolvable","authors":"Ioannis G. Asimakopoulos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3471187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3471187","url":null,"abstract":"The EU bank resolution framework relies heavily on banks' internal capacity for loss-absorption and recapitalization through the issuance of bail-inable financial instruments (MREL). Meanwhile, the existing collective funding arrangements (resolution and deposit insurance funds) seem inadequate to support other alternatives, such as resolution transfer strategies or administrative liquidation. Based on resolution experience and evidence thus far, such regulatory architecture cannot work effectively on all EU banks regardless of size and business model. Many retail banks – both significant and less significant with deposits higher than 40% of their total liabilities and own funds (TLOF) – struggle to comply with the existing framework due to their funding model and difficulty to tap capital markets. Ultimately, efforts to improve their resolvability could threaten their viability. In order to improve the resolvability of retail banks, regulators need to enhance resolution transfer strategies which would ultimately reduce MREL requirements. Credible transfer strategies though require credible financing arrangements when a buyer is not readily available. Therefore, resolution funds would need to be able to contribute more than the current 5% TLOF in order to credibly supplement bail-in. Otherwise, regulators should incentivize banks to establish voluntary collective industry funds – similar or identical to institutional protection schemes, which would finance transfer-based resolution strategies integrated into the resolution plans. Participation in such voluntary funds would occur in exchange for lower MREL requirements. The use of transfer strategies in conjunction with the establishment of voluntary industry funds would significantly reduce MREL requirements for retail banks.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79085375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accurate modeling of operational risk is important for a bank and the finance industry as a whole to prepare for potentially catastrophic losses. One approach to modeling operational is the loss distribution approach, which requires a bank to group operational losses into risk categories and select a loss frequency and severity distribution for each category. This approach estimates the annual operational loss distribution, and a bank must set aside capital, called regulatory capital, equal to the 0.999 quantile of this estimated distribution. In practice, this approach may produce unstable regulatory capital calculations from year-to-year as selected loss severity distribution families change. This paper presents truncation probability estimates for loss severity data and a consistent quantile scoring function on annual loss data as useful severity distribution selection criteria that may lead to more stable regulatory capital. Additionally, the Sinh-arcSinh distribution is another flexible candidate family for modeling loss severities that can be easily estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Finally, we recommend that loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold be collected so that loss severity data can be treated as censored data.
{"title":"On the Selection of Loss Severity Distributions to Model Operational Risk","authors":"Daniel P. Hadley, H. Joe, N. Nolde","doi":"10.21314/JOP.2019.229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JOP.2019.229","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate modeling of operational risk is important for a bank and the finance industry as a whole to prepare for potentially catastrophic losses. One approach to modeling operational is the loss distribution approach, which requires a bank to group operational losses into risk categories and select a loss frequency and severity distribution for each category. This approach estimates the annual operational loss distribution, and a bank must set aside capital, called regulatory capital, equal to the 0.999 quantile of this estimated distribution. In practice, this approach may produce unstable regulatory capital calculations from year-to-year as selected loss severity distribution families change. This paper presents truncation probability estimates for loss severity data and a consistent quantile scoring function on annual loss data as useful severity distribution selection criteria that may lead to more stable regulatory capital. Additionally, the Sinh-arcSinh distribution is another flexible candidate family for modeling loss severities that can be easily estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Finally, we recommend that loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold be collected so that loss severity data can be treated as censored data.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79836416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the context of securities settlement, a trade is said to fail if on the settlement date either the seller does not deliver the securities or the buyer does not deliver funds. Settlement fails may have consequences for the parties directly involved and for the system as a whole. Chains of fails, for example, could lead to gridlock situations and large volume of fails can affect the liquidity and smooth functioning of financial markets. In this paper, we consider UK government bonds (gilts) and UK equities settlement data to examine the determinants of settlement fails and to explore the network characteristics of chains of settlement fails with the aim of identifying an optimal strategy to conduct a buy‑in process that could resolve cascades of fails.
{"title":"Securities Settlement Fails Network and Buy‑In Strategies","authors":"Pedro Gurrola-Perez, Jieshuang He, Gary Harper","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3449458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449458","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of securities settlement, a trade is said to fail if on the settlement date either the seller does not deliver the securities or the buyer does not deliver funds. Settlement fails may have consequences for the parties directly involved and for the system as a whole. Chains of fails, for example, could lead to gridlock situations and large volume of fails can affect the liquidity and smooth functioning of financial markets. In this paper, we consider UK government bonds (gilts) and UK equities settlement data to examine the determinants of settlement fails and to explore the network characteristics of chains of settlement fails with the aim of identifying an optimal strategy to conduct a buy‑in process that could resolve cascades of fails.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83244915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show that banks that are facing relatively high locally non-diversifiable risks in their home region expand more across states than banks that do not face such risks following branching deregulation in the United States during the 1990s and 2000s. Further, our evidence shows that these banks take into account the local risks in potential target regions: they expand more into counties where risks are relatively high and positively correlated with risks in their home region. This suggests that these banks do not only diversify but also build on their expertise in local risks when they expand into new regions.
{"title":"What Drives Banks' Geographic Expansion? The Role of Locally Non-Diversifiable Risk","authors":"R. Gropp, Felix Noth, U. Schüwer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3347766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3347766","url":null,"abstract":"We show that banks that are facing relatively high locally non-diversifiable risks in their home region expand more across states than banks that do not face such risks following branching deregulation in the United States during the 1990s and 2000s. Further, our evidence shows that these banks take into account the local risks in potential target regions: they expand more into counties where risks are relatively high and positively correlated with risks in their home region. This suggests that these banks do not only diversify but also build on their expertise in local risks when they expand into new regions.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"208 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77747370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bancassurance is not just a sale of insurance products at bank counters, but a complex cooperation involving both partners in the project realization, with the goal of satisfying their own interests as well as clients' interests. In the Republic of Serbia, banks began to deal with insurance activities in 2007. Since then, the sale of insurance products through banks has been constantly growing. The paper will present the current bancassurance models in the Republic of Serbia: integral distribution; expert distribution and combined distribution. The paper will present the comprehensive condition of bancassurance in the Republic of Serbia, above all the legal framework of the bancassurance concept; activities necessary for the successful implementation of bancassurance; market participants; competition among banking products and insurance products; the current level of cooperation between banks and insurance companies. Participants in the insurance market established by the Republic of Serbia, such as the National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, the Serbian Export Credit and Insurance Agency and the Deposit Insurance Agency, will be presented in paper, with an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of state insurance regulations. By gathering facts and data based on available literature and public databases, the current state of the insurance market and the possibilities for further development of bancassurance in the Republic of Serbia will be determined. The choice of a bancassurance model is essential for the successful functioning of the overall concept and its long-term sustainability in a dynamic business environment. The paper points to the fact that by designing an adequate bancassurance model, there may be a significant development of the Serbian financial services market.
{"title":"Bancassurance: Challenges and Opportunities in Republic of Serbia","authors":"Ivana Marinović Matović","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3433967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3433967","url":null,"abstract":"Bancassurance is not just a sale of insurance products at bank counters, but a complex cooperation involving both partners in the project realization, with the goal of satisfying their own interests as well as clients' interests. In the Republic of Serbia, banks began to deal with insurance activities in 2007. Since then, the sale of insurance products through banks has been constantly growing. The paper will present the current bancassurance models in the Republic of Serbia: integral distribution; expert distribution and combined distribution. The paper will present the comprehensive condition of bancassurance in the Republic of Serbia, above all the legal framework of the bancassurance concept; activities necessary for the successful implementation of bancassurance; market participants; competition among banking products and insurance products; the current level of cooperation between banks and insurance companies. Participants in the insurance market established by the Republic of Serbia, such as the National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, the Serbian Export Credit and Insurance Agency and the Deposit Insurance Agency, will be presented in paper, with an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of state insurance regulations. By gathering facts and data based on available literature and public databases, the current state of the insurance market and the possibilities for further development of bancassurance in the Republic of Serbia will be determined. The choice of a bancassurance model is essential for the successful functioning of the overall concept and its long-term sustainability in a dynamic business environment. The paper points to the fact that by designing an adequate bancassurance model, there may be a significant development of the Serbian financial services market.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90431754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand. This study develops an empirical test to determine whether the household demand channel of credit supply expansion is present, and it implements the test using both a natural experiment in the United States in the 1980s based on banking deregulation and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades. Consistent with the importance of the household demand channel, credit supply expansion boosts non-tradable sector employment and the price of non-tradable goods, with limited effects on tradable sector employment. Such credit expansions amplify the business cycle, leading to more severe recessions.
{"title":"How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels","authors":"Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, Emil Verner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2971086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2971086","url":null,"abstract":"Credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand. This study develops an empirical test to determine whether the household demand channel of credit supply expansion is present, and it implements the test using both a natural experiment in the United States in the 1980s based on banking deregulation and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades. Consistent with the importance of the household demand channel, credit supply expansion boosts non-tradable sector employment and the price of non-tradable goods, with limited effects on tradable sector employment. Such credit expansions amplify the business cycle, leading to more severe recessions.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"116 12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84250215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Extant theory holds that new entrants’ pre-entry experience is an important asset that enhances their post-entry performance. While the logic is compelling, empirical findings have been inconsistent. We argue that this gap results, in part, because the empirical literature tends to confound two distinct mechanisms. Pre-entry experience may act: (a) directly by increasing an entrant’s post-entry performance (silver spoon effect) and (b) indirectly by influencing the properties of new entrant learning post-entry (helping hand effect). This latter mechanism has received sparse attention in the literature. We build on prior work on learning curves to develop a theory of how pre-entry experience impacts the rate and asymptote of post-entry learning curves, and how context dissimilarity bounds the relationship. We test the theory using a longitudinal census of new entrants in U.S. commercial banking. In the absence of accounting for the indirect effect, our estimates show that pre-entry experience appears to be performance reducing for new entrants. We then estimate models in which we account for post-entry learning curves. We find strong support for the positive implications of pre-entry experience — it improves new entrant performance at entry by 12.5 percent via the direct effect, and increases an entrant’s post-entry experiential learning rate by 211 percent via the indirect effect.
{"title":"How Does Pre-Entry Experience Enhance Entrant Performance? Evidence From Learning Curves of New Banks","authors":"Z. Cao, Hart E. Posen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3398999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3398999","url":null,"abstract":"Extant theory holds that new entrants’ pre-entry experience is an important asset that enhances their post-entry performance. While the logic is compelling, empirical findings have been inconsistent. We argue that this gap results, in part, because the empirical literature tends to confound two distinct mechanisms. Pre-entry experience may act: (a) directly by increasing an entrant’s post-entry performance (silver spoon effect) and (b) indirectly by influencing the properties of new entrant learning post-entry (helping hand effect). This latter mechanism has received sparse attention in the literature. We build on prior work on learning curves to develop a theory of how pre-entry experience impacts the rate and asymptote of post-entry learning curves, and how context dissimilarity bounds the relationship. We test the theory using a longitudinal census of new entrants in U.S. commercial banking. In the absence of accounting for the indirect effect, our estimates show that pre-entry experience appears to be performance reducing for new entrants. We then estimate models in which we account for post-entry learning curves. We find strong support for the positive implications of pre-entry experience — it improves new entrant performance at entry by 12.5 percent via the direct effect, and increases an entrant’s post-entry experiential learning rate by 211 percent via the indirect effect.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78895145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Darren J. Aiello, Mark J. Garmaise, Gabriel Natividad
The U.S. mortgage market exhibits competitive instability in which some lenders rapidly emerge from the fringe to substantial market shares. Using inferred discontinuities in application acceptance models to generate local lending shocks, we analyze the impact on a lender of a surge in originations by its competitors. We show that the quickest-growing (but not the largest) competitors divert applications and originations from other lenders. Facing a quickly growing competitor, lenders charge higher interest rates, partially because of the increased risk of their loans. Loan performance suffers for other lenders as the quickest-growing competitor’s originations increase.
{"title":"Competing for Deal Flow in Local Mortgage Markets","authors":"Darren J. Aiello, Mark J. Garmaise, Gabriel Natividad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3032669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3032669","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The U.S. mortgage market exhibits competitive instability in which some lenders rapidly emerge from the fringe to substantial market shares. Using inferred discontinuities in application acceptance models to generate local lending shocks, we analyze the impact on a lender of a surge in originations by its competitors. We show that the quickest-growing (but not the largest) competitors divert applications and originations from other lenders. Facing a quickly growing competitor, lenders charge higher interest rates, partially because of the increased risk of their loans. Loan performance suffers for other lenders as the quickest-growing competitor’s originations increase.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90350894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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