The task of nation building is a daunting one and requires the sharing of statutory responsibilities and allocation of revenue to the components political units to financed development projects. This is designed to promote good governance and even development. The delineation of powers into exclusive, concurrent and residual powers for the federal, state and local government and the allocation of funds to each tier of government underscores propriety of political interdependence to nation building. Section 165 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 and the Allocation of Revenue (Federation Account, etc.) Act No.1 1982 stipulates that the revenues generated by the federal government should be credited into the Federation Account and disburse monthly among the three tiers of government as defined in the Revenue Act 1982. All the tiers of government depend on revenue from the federation account to finance development projects. In spite of this, many state government are unable to finance their capital and recurrent expenditure hence the justification to review the existing revenue sharing formular in favour of them. The fiscal challenge raises question the viability of many states and the need to allocate more resources power to the lower tier governments to enhance their fiscal capability and operation efficiency.
{"title":"Fiscal Responsibility and the Statutory Allocation of National Revenue for Nation Building in Nigeria: An Overview","authors":"Otinche Sunday Inoykwe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3190781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3190781","url":null,"abstract":"The task of nation building is a daunting one and requires the sharing of statutory responsibilities and allocation of revenue to the components political units to financed development projects. This is designed to promote good governance and even development. The delineation of powers into exclusive, concurrent and residual powers for the federal, state and local government and the allocation of funds to each tier of government underscores propriety of political interdependence to nation building. Section 165 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 and the Allocation of Revenue (Federation Account, etc.) Act No.1 1982 stipulates that the revenues generated by the federal government should be credited into the Federation Account and disburse monthly among the three tiers of government as defined in the Revenue Act 1982. All the tiers of government depend on revenue from the federation account to finance development projects. In spite of this, many state government are unable to finance their capital and recurrent expenditure hence the justification to review the existing revenue sharing formular in favour of them. The fiscal challenge raises question the viability of many states and the need to allocate more resources power to the lower tier governments to enhance their fiscal capability and operation efficiency.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"656 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116095029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A government budget is defined as an official document passed by the legislature and approved by the chief executive or President. The two basic elements of any budget are the revenues and expenses. Government Budget is designed for best possible allocation of scarce resources taking into account larger economical and socio-political considerations. According to Aaron Wildavsky, a political scientist worked in government budgeting, public policy and risk management, budgets are political documents; the decisions that lead to the final budget are answers to central political questions, that is, "who gets what and how." Budget is a document which provides the detailed plan of government for the coming financial year with the review of past and designed for the best possible distribution of resources. It is the financial reflection of the government and explains what it does and intends to do. The holistic view of budget has been a rare sight as the tool had not been available. Crystal maze is a framework to analyze Union Budget through various perspectives and provides different ways of looking at the budget and then the analysis can answer that ‘To which sector budget should be linked?’ This Crystal Maze concept has been proposed by Prof. Subhash Sharma in his article named, “Crystal Gazing for Budget Analysis: Seven Ways Framework of Looking at the Budget”. He has observed that everyone needs to understand the Union Budget through “The Budget Crystal”. This Crystal Maze Model takes a holistic view of the budget by looking at it from seven different perspectives viz Common Man, Sectoral, Corporate, Fiscal, Security, Development and Local Global.
{"title":"Analysis of Indian Union Budget 2017-18: A Crystal View","authors":"Siddharth Shastr, Megha Aggarwal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3205863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3205863","url":null,"abstract":"A government budget is defined as an official document passed by the legislature and approved by the chief executive or President. The two basic elements of any budget are the revenues and expenses. Government Budget is designed for best possible allocation of scarce resources taking into account larger economical and socio-political considerations. According to Aaron Wildavsky, a political scientist worked in government budgeting, public policy and risk management, budgets are political documents; the decisions that lead to the final budget are answers to central political questions, that is, \"who gets what and how.\" Budget is a document which provides the detailed plan of government for the coming financial year with the review of past and designed for the best possible distribution of resources. It is the financial reflection of the government and explains what it does and intends to do. The holistic view of budget has been a rare sight as the tool had not been available. Crystal maze is a framework to analyze Union Budget through various perspectives and provides different ways of looking at the budget and then the analysis can answer that ‘To which sector budget should be linked?’ This Crystal Maze concept has been proposed by Prof. Subhash Sharma in his article named, “Crystal Gazing for Budget Analysis: Seven Ways Framework of Looking at the Budget”. He has observed that everyone needs to understand the Union Budget through “The Budget Crystal”. This Crystal Maze Model takes a holistic view of the budget by looking at it from seven different perspectives viz Common Man, Sectoral, Corporate, Fiscal, Security, Development and Local Global.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123609401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
1923’te kurulan cumhuriyetin mali anlamda temel argumani denk butceydi. Dolayisiyla denk butce kendi yagi ile kavrulan bir cumhuriyet ongorusunu zorunlu kiliyordu. Cumhuriyet ilan edilmeden once Buyuk Millet Meclisi kadrolari mali denklik icin Osmanli’dan kalan ic borclardan kurtulmayi tasarladilar. Bu tasari ic borc olmak sartiyla kisa ve uzun vadeli borclari icermekteydi. Bunun icin pesi sira bir dizi yasal duzenlemeler yapildi. 1923-1933 yillari arasinda 1908’den itibaren kayda gecirilmis olan ic borclardan kurtulmak icin 10’un ustunde yasal duzenleme yapilmistir. Bu calismada sozu edilen yasal duzenlemelerin temel sayilabilecek uc tanesi baz alinarak Osmanli’dan kalan ve mulevves (pis, duzensiz) ve seyyiat(gunahlar) olarak tarif edilen ic borclarin mahsubu incelenmistir.
{"title":"Osmanli’Nin Günahlarindan Kurtulmak: Cumhuriyet’İn İç Borç Mahsubu (To Get Rid of the Sins of the Ottoman Empire: Turkish Republic's Internal Debt Offsetting)","authors":"Ferhat Akyüz","doi":"10.19039/sotod.2017.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.19039/sotod.2017.51","url":null,"abstract":"1923’te kurulan cumhuriyetin mali anlamda temel argumani denk butceydi. Dolayisiyla denk butce kendi yagi ile kavrulan bir cumhuriyet ongorusunu zorunlu kiliyordu. Cumhuriyet ilan edilmeden once Buyuk Millet Meclisi kadrolari mali denklik icin Osmanli’dan kalan ic borclardan kurtulmayi tasarladilar. Bu tasari ic borc olmak sartiyla kisa ve uzun vadeli borclari icermekteydi. Bunun icin pesi sira bir dizi yasal duzenlemeler yapildi. 1923-1933 yillari arasinda 1908’den itibaren kayda gecirilmis olan ic borclardan kurtulmak icin 10’un ustunde yasal duzenleme yapilmistir. Bu calismada sozu edilen yasal duzenlemelerin temel sayilabilecek uc tanesi baz alinarak Osmanli’dan kalan ve mulevves (pis, duzensiz) ve seyyiat(gunahlar) olarak tarif edilen ic borclarin mahsubu incelenmistir.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133079708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the impact of austerity plan announcements on employees’ wellbeing. We exploit the unexpected announcement of a drastic wage cut (25%) related to public sector employees in Romania. Using data from the Eurobarometer Surveys and the European Quality of Life Survey, we employ a difference-in-difference research design combined with matching, based on entropy balancing, to identify the causal effects. Our results reveal that the mere announcement of austerity measures leads to an overall drop in life satisfaction among those working in the public sector. We also show that men, and especially married individuals, are most affected by the substantial wage cut announcement. Contrary to previous research, we find that public sector employees with higher levels of education are more likely to be affected by this policy communication compared to those with only secondary or primary levels of education.
{"title":"Austerity Plan Announcements and the Impact on the Employees' Wellbeing","authors":"Alina Botezat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900891","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of austerity plan announcements on employees’ wellbeing. We exploit the unexpected announcement of a drastic wage cut (25%) related to public sector employees in Romania. Using data from the Eurobarometer Surveys and the European Quality of Life Survey, we employ a difference-in-difference research design combined with matching, based on entropy balancing, to identify the causal effects. Our results reveal that the mere announcement of austerity measures leads to an overall drop in life satisfaction among those working in the public sector. We also show that men, and especially married individuals, are most affected by the substantial wage cut announcement. Contrary to previous research, we find that public sector employees with higher levels of education are more likely to be affected by this policy communication compared to those with only secondary or primary levels of education.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116350901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we investigate the Italian regulation on local government budget related to the European fiscal rules (the so-called Domestic Stability Pact), the Constitutional golden rule, and the pre-existing ceilings on new borrowing, with the intent to study the overall effect on local debt and investment expenditure. Our focus is on the municipality level of government. We use a dataset encompassing the main budget items of virtually all municipalities for the period 1999-2009 to perform panel estimation of the efficacy of local fiscal rules in terms of debt reduction and to detect possible unintended effects on investment spending. Empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the Italian system suffers from a lack of coordination between budget constraints and borrowing limits. Our main conclusion is that the decentralization process in Italy has not found an adequate solution yet: on the one hand, local administrations are not equipped to deal with the increased financial responsibility and the progressive sophistication of financial markets; on the other hand, central government has been inconsistent in devolving fiscal powers to municipalities while at the same time adopting multi-layered regulations to restrain local fiscal autonomy in order to pursue the overall public finance control.
{"title":"Municipality Budget Rules and Debt: Is the Italian Regulation Effective?","authors":"D. Monacelli, M. Pazienza, Chiara Rapallini","doi":"10.1111/pbaf.12094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12094","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we investigate the Italian regulation on local government budget related to the European fiscal rules (the so-called Domestic Stability Pact), the Constitutional golden rule, and the pre-existing ceilings on new borrowing, with the intent to study the overall effect on local debt and investment expenditure. Our focus is on the municipality level of government. We use a dataset encompassing the main budget items of virtually all municipalities for the period 1999-2009 to perform panel estimation of the efficacy of local fiscal rules in terms of debt reduction and to detect possible unintended effects on investment spending. Empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the Italian system suffers from a lack of coordination between budget constraints and borrowing limits. Our main conclusion is that the decentralization process in Italy has not found an adequate solution yet: on the one hand, local administrations are not equipped to deal with the increased financial responsibility and the progressive sophistication of financial markets; on the other hand, central government has been inconsistent in devolving fiscal powers to municipalities while at the same time adopting multi-layered regulations to restrain local fiscal autonomy in order to pursue the overall public finance control.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134590456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper examines three major aspects of reform initiatives in budgetary system in India, namely, (i) making the budget performance oriented, (ii) bringing in multi‐year perspective to expenditure planning, and (iii) establishing a rule based budget management system. The reform initiatives have provided basis to pursue further modifications to benefit from the changes. To achieve the intended objectives, the innovations should be accompanied by improvements in associated systems and processes. The performance orientation of the budgeting system requires developing credible performance information, integrating them in the budget decisions, and strengthening the performance management system. Second, the role of multi‐year expenditure planning for effective allocation of resources by countering the entrenched incrementalism in public budget has been acknowledged and the initial progresses need to be reinforced further to establish a credible MTBF system. Third, the desirable elements of next generation fiscal rules should be adopted to improve the effectiveness of the rule based budget management system.
{"title":"Reform Initiatives in the Budgeting System in India","authors":"P. Jena","doi":"10.1111/pbaf.12070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12070","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines three major aspects of reform initiatives in budgetary system in India, namely, (i) making the budget performance oriented, (ii) bringing in multi‐year perspective to expenditure planning, and (iii) establishing a rule based budget management system. The reform initiatives have provided basis to pursue further modifications to benefit from the changes. To achieve the intended objectives, the innovations should be accompanied by improvements in associated systems and processes. The performance orientation of the budgeting system requires developing credible performance information, integrating them in the budget decisions, and strengthening the performance management system. Second, the role of multi‐year expenditure planning for effective allocation of resources by countering the entrenched incrementalism in public budget has been acknowledged and the initial progresses need to be reinforced further to establish a credible MTBF system. Third, the desirable elements of next generation fiscal rules should be adopted to improve the effectiveness of the rule based budget management system.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131967647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Which budgetary institutions result in efficient provision of public goods? We analyze a model with two parties bargaining over the allocation to a public good each period. Parties place different values on the public good, and these values may change over time. We focus on budgetary institutions that determine the rules governing feasible allocations to mandatory and discretionary spending programs. Mandatory spending is enacted by law and remains in effect until changed, and thus induces an endogenous status quo, whereas discretionary spending is a periodic appropriation that is not allocated if no new agreement is reached. We show that discretionary only and mandatory only institutions typically lead to dynamic inefficiency and that mandatory only institutions can even lead to static inefficiency. By introducing appropriate flexibility in mandatory programs, we obtain static and dynamic efficiency. An endogenous choice of mandatory and discretionary programs, sunset provisions and state-contingent mandatory programs can provide this flexibility in increasingly complex environments.
{"title":"Efficiency of Flexible Budgetary Institutions","authors":"T. R. Bowen, Ying Chen, Hülya Eraslan, Jan Zápal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2557771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2557771","url":null,"abstract":"Which budgetary institutions result in efficient provision of public goods? We analyze a model with two parties bargaining over the allocation to a public good each period. Parties place different values on the public good, and these values may change over time. We focus on budgetary institutions that determine the rules governing feasible allocations to mandatory and discretionary spending programs. Mandatory spending is enacted by law and remains in effect until changed, and thus induces an endogenous status quo, whereas discretionary spending is a periodic appropriation that is not allocated if no new agreement is reached. We show that discretionary only and mandatory only institutions typically lead to dynamic inefficiency and that mandatory only institutions can even lead to static inefficiency. By introducing appropriate flexibility in mandatory programs, we obtain static and dynamic efficiency. An endogenous choice of mandatory and discretionary programs, sunset provisions and state-contingent mandatory programs can provide this flexibility in increasingly complex environments.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114349684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eugene Goryunov, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Sergei Germanovich Sinelnikov-Murylev
Russian Abstract: Бюджетный разрыв (fiscal gap) представляет собой индикатор долгосрочной сбалансированности государственных финансов. Данный индикатор используется для того, чтобы оценить, в какой мере действующая фискальная политика позволяет сохранять устойчивость бюджета в многолетней перспективе. В основу его расчета положено межвременное бюджетное ограничение государства (intertemporal budget constraint), которое связывает доходы и расходы государственного бюджета на длительных временных интервалах. Величина бюджетного разрыва определяется как сумма текущей государственной задолженности и приведенной суммы будущих первичных дефицитов бюджета. Оценка бюджетного разрыва для расширенного правительства РФ выполнена в рамках трех сценариев, отличающихся заложенными в них предположениями о демографических тенденциях, темпах роста производительности труда, объеме запасов углеводородного сырья, ценах на нефть и природный газ и т.д. Во всех сценариях бюджетный разрыв оказывается положительным, что свидетельствует о том, что действующая фискальная политика не может обеспечить устойчивости государственных финансов в долгосрочной перспективе. Основными факторами бюджетных дисбалансов являются рост расходов на пенсионное и медицинское обслуживание, обусловленный демографическими тенденциями, а также сокращение роли поступлений от налогообложения нефтегазового сектора вследствие прогнозируемой стагнации добычи. Оценка величины бюджетного разрыва в базовом сценарии составляет 1613 трлн. руб. в ценах 2014 г. или 13,6% суммарной приведенной стоимости ВВП, что сопоставимо с оценками, выполненными для ряда развитых стран. Эта работа является продолжением исследования (Goryunov et al., 2013), выполненного коллективом авторов, под руководством Л. Котликоффа.English Abstract: Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc. Estimated value of fiscal gap is positive in all three scenarios which implies that current fiscal policy cannot provide budget sustainability in the long run. There are two major factors of the budget imbalances: rising health and pension expenditures due to demographics trends and shrinking role of tax revenues from energy sector due to extraction stagnation. Fiscal gap value under intermediate scenario is equal to 1,613 trln 2014 rubles or 13.6% of present value of
俄罗斯Abstract:预算缺口(fiscal gap)是公共财政长期平衡的指标。该指标被用来评估有效的财政政策在多大程度上使预算在长期内保持稳定。他的计算基于国家间预算限制(intertemporal budget constraint)，这将政府的收入和支出与长期时间联系起来。预算差距的大小被定义为当前公共债务的总和和未来初级预算赤字的总和。框架内评估预算差距扩大俄罗斯政府履行三个场景,基于假设的不同人口趋势,劳动生产率,产出增长率的碳氢化合物储量,石油和天然气价格等各个场景财政差距积极财政政策表明,行动不能提供长期公共财政的可持续性。预算失衡的主要因素是人口趋势导致的养老金和医疗支出的增加，以及由于预期的产量停滞，石油天然气部门税收收入的下降。基准场景中的预算缺口估计为2014年价格的1613万亿卢布，或gdp总价值的13.6%，与一些发达国家的估计相当。这篇论文是由l. kotlikoff领导的作家集体完成的后续研究(2013年)。英语Abstract: Fiscal gap是政府财政的长期管理工具。这是一种保护措施，是为了让政府在长时间内采取行动。Fiscal gap是由intertemporal budget connects flows提供的。《Fiscal gap》是《古老的政府debt》和《未来的正义》的定义。在《俄罗斯通用公共工程手册》中，我们有三个标准的基础，原油和自然资源的特别储备，以及长时间的石油和自然资源资源等等。在漫长的旅程中，体格价值是所有三个场景中最重要的。有两个主要的工厂:上升健康和奔腾的趋势和从能量第二部分到外站点的小角色。Fiscal gap value under中间scenario is equal to 1,613 2014 rubles trln or 13.6% of present value of GDP主演is close to Fiscal gap in several advanced economies。这个工作室是一个展览(2013年)一个由劳拉·j·科特利科夫领导的authors head集团。
{"title":"Теоретические Основы Бюджетного Разрыва Как Показателя Долгосрочной Фискальной Устойчивости и Его Оценка Для России (Theoretical Foundations of Fiscal Gap as a Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Indicator and its Estimates for Russia)","authors":"Eugene Goryunov, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Sergei Germanovich Sinelnikov-Murylev","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2600000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2600000","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: Бюджетный разрыв (fiscal gap) представляет собой индикатор долгосрочной сбалансированности государственных финансов. Данный индикатор используется для того, чтобы оценить, в какой мере действующая фискальная политика позволяет сохранять устойчивость бюджета в многолетней перспективе. В основу его расчета положено межвременное бюджетное ограничение государства (intertemporal budget constraint), которое связывает доходы и расходы государственного бюджета на длительных временных интервалах. Величина бюджетного разрыва определяется как сумма текущей государственной задолженности и приведенной суммы будущих первичных дефицитов бюджета. Оценка бюджетного разрыва для расширенного правительства РФ выполнена в рамках трех сценариев, отличающихся заложенными в них предположениями о демографических тенденциях, темпах роста производительности труда, объеме запасов углеводородного сырья, ценах на нефть и природный газ и т.д. Во всех сценариях бюджетный разрыв оказывается положительным, что свидетельствует о том, что действующая фискальная политика не может обеспечить устойчивости государственных финансов в долгосрочной перспективе. Основными факторами бюджетных дисбалансов являются рост расходов на пенсионное и медицинское обслуживание, обусловленный демографическими тенденциями, а также сокращение роли поступлений от налогообложения нефтегазового сектора вследствие прогнозируемой стагнации добычи. Оценка величины бюджетного разрыва в базовом сценарии составляет 1613 трлн. руб. в ценах 2014 г. или 13,6% суммарной приведенной стоимости ВВП, что сопоставимо с оценками, выполненными для ряда развитых стран. Эта работа является продолжением исследования (Goryunov et al., 2013), выполненного коллективом авторов, под руководством Л. Котликоффа.English Abstract: Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc. Estimated value of fiscal gap is positive in all three scenarios which implies that current fiscal policy cannot provide budget sustainability in the long run. There are two major factors of the budget imbalances: rising health and pension expenditures due to demographics trends and shrinking role of tax revenues from energy sector due to extraction stagnation. Fiscal gap value under intermediate scenario is equal to 1,613 trln 2014 rubles or 13.6% of present value of ","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133584045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Governments struggle to allocate funds towards ever-changing priorities, especially when spending increases are limited by austerity. Times of recession might be especially poor moments for reallocations of funds, as budget holders try to protect what they have. This pattern has not been investigated much in the literature. Some fiscal institutions are designed to increase the allocative efficiency of public spending by making it easier for policy-makers to allocate funds towards the most important priorities. Whether fiscal institutions have an effect on allocations is still unclear.Chile provides an opportunity to investigate both ideas. Using an interactive model, the paper finds that budget allocations were more rigid the less additional money was available, and that institutional reforms designed to increase flexibility managed to break the link between spending and reallocations, as well as having a significant and positive effect on the size of annual reallocations.
{"title":"Overcoming Incrementalism: Budget Reforms and Budget Allocations in Chile","authors":"Philipp Krause","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2709234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2709234","url":null,"abstract":"Governments struggle to allocate funds towards ever-changing priorities, especially when spending increases are limited by austerity. Times of recession might be especially poor moments for reallocations of funds, as budget holders try to protect what they have. This pattern has not been investigated much in the literature. Some fiscal institutions are designed to increase the allocative efficiency of public spending by making it easier for policy-makers to allocate funds towards the most important priorities. Whether fiscal institutions have an effect on allocations is still unclear.Chile provides an opportunity to investigate both ideas. Using an interactive model, the paper finds that budget allocations were more rigid the less additional money was available, and that institutional reforms designed to increase flexibility managed to break the link between spending and reallocations, as well as having a significant and positive effect on the size of annual reallocations.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"179 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116160309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russian Abstract: Устойчивость государственных финансов предполагает долгосрочную сбалансированность доходов и расходов государственного бюджета. Сильная зависимость налоговых поступлений от экспорта сырьевых ресурсов в условиях значительных колебаний цен на них придает проблеме поддержания баланса доходов и расходов бюджетной системы особую остроту. Целью работы является разработка модели прогноза основных параметров бюджета России, в том числе, поступлений основных налогов, в целях использования полученных результатов при принятии решений в области бюджетно-налоговой политики, в частности, об изменении уровня налоговой нагрузки в стране, а также публикации прогнозов на регулярной основе. English Abstract: Sustainability of public finances requires a long-term balance of revenues and expenditures of the state budget. The strong dependence of tax revenues from commodity exports in the face of major price fluctuations on them makes the problem of maintaining the balance of income and expenditure of the budget system particularly acute. The aim is to develop a model of the main parameters of the budget forecast of Russia, including revenues from the main taxes in order to use these results in decision-making in the area of fiscal policy, in particular, changes in the tax burden in the country, as well as the publication of forecasts regularly.
俄罗斯的Abstract:公共财政的可持续性意味着公共财政收入和支出的长期平衡。在商品价格大幅波动的情况下，税收收入对商品出口的严重依赖使得维持收入和预算平衡的问题特别尖锐。这项工作的目的是制定一种预测模式，包括俄罗斯的主要预算参数，以利用其在财政政策决策中所取得的成果，特别是改变该国的税收负担水平，并定期发布预测。英语Abstract:公共财政的下限是长时间的恢复和状态budget的扩展。在这张脸的主要问题和布达系统的扩展中，有一个关于分享的决定。The aim is to develop a model of The main parameters of The pl forecast of Russia, including revenues from The main taxes in order to use these results in decision - making in The area of民族党fiscal policy in particular, changes in The负担in The country, as well as The publication of forecasts regularly。
{"title":"Теоретические Основы Прогнозирования Основных Бюджетных Параметров Страны (Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country)","authors":"P. Nazarov, M. Kazakova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2458962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2458962","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: Устойчивость государственных финансов предполагает долгосрочную сбалансированность доходов и расходов государственного бюджета. Сильная зависимость налоговых поступлений от экспорта сырьевых ресурсов в условиях значительных колебаний цен на них придает проблеме поддержания баланса доходов и расходов бюджетной системы особую остроту. Целью работы является разработка модели прогноза основных параметров бюджета России, в том числе, поступлений основных налогов, в целях использования полученных результатов при принятии решений в области бюджетно-налоговой политики, в частности, об изменении уровня налоговой нагрузки в стране, а также публикации прогнозов на регулярной основе. English Abstract: Sustainability of public finances requires a long-term balance of revenues and expenditures of the state budget. The strong dependence of tax revenues from commodity exports in the face of major price fluctuations on them makes the problem of maintaining the balance of income and expenditure of the budget system particularly acute. The aim is to develop a model of the main parameters of the budget forecast of Russia, including revenues from the main taxes in order to use these results in decision-making in the area of fiscal policy, in particular, changes in the tax burden in the country, as well as the publication of forecasts regularly.","PeriodicalId":116921,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Budgeting (Development) (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115420523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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