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Real Output and Prices Adjustments Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes 不同汇率制度下的实际产出与价格调整
Pub Date : 2013-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2370627
Rajmund Mirdala
Exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies refers to one of the most crucial policy decision in the beginning of the 1990s employed during the initial stages of the transition process. During the period of last two decades we may identify some crucial milestones in the exchange rate regimes evolution in the European transition economies. due to existing diversity in exchange rate arrangements in the European transition economies in the pre-ERM2 period there seems to be two big groups of countries - “peggers” (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and “floaters” (Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak republic, Slovenia). Despite the fact, there seems to be no real prospective alternative to euro adoption for the European transition economies, we emphasize disputable effects of sacrificing monetary sovereignty in the view of positive effects of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate based adjustments in the country experiencing sudden shifts in the business cycle. In the chapter we analyze effects of the real exchange rate volatility on real output and inflation in ten European transition economies. From estimated VAR model (recursive Cholesky decomposition is employed to identify structural shocks) we compute impulse-response functions to analyze responses of real output and inflation to negative real exchange rate shocks. Results of estimated model are discussed from a prospective of the fixed versus flexible exchange rate dilemma. To provide more rigorous insight into the problem of the exchange rate regime suitability we estimate the model for each particular country employing data for two subsequent periods 2000-2007 and 2000-2011.
欧洲转型经济体的汇率制度演变是指1990年代初在转型进程的最初阶段所采用的最关键的政策决定之一。在过去二十年中,我们可以确定欧洲转型经济体汇率制度演变的一些关键里程碑。由于欧洲转型经济体在第二货币汇率制度之前的汇率安排的现有多样性,似乎有两大类国家- -“钉住”(保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛)和“浮动”(捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克共和国、斯洛文尼亚)。尽管事实如此,对于欧洲转型经济体来说,似乎没有真正的替代欧元的前景,但我们强调,鉴于汇率波动和基于汇率的调整对经历商业周期突然转变的国家的积极影响,牺牲货币主权的有争议的影响。在本章中,我们分析了10个欧洲转型经济体的实际汇率波动对实际产出和通货膨胀的影响。从估计的VAR模型(采用递归Cholesky分解来识别结构性冲击)中,我们计算脉冲响应函数来分析实际产出和通货膨胀对负实际汇率冲击的响应。从固定汇率与浮动汇率困境的角度讨论了估计模型的结果。为了对汇率制度适用性问题提供更严格的见解,我们使用2000-2007年和2000-2011年两个后续时期的数据来估计每个特定国家的模型。
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引用次数: 7
The Available Scope of the Assumption of Representative Agent 委托代理的适用范围
Pub Date : 2013-12-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2365158
Yong Tao
In the statistical physics, each microstate must be permitted by the Newton equations (or Schrodinger equations). Likewise, each microstate of economic system must be allowed by the general equilibrium theory. Our study shows that the competitive economy, over a long time scale, would produce a large number of general equilibria each of which can be regarded as a possible microstate of this economy. Then by the principle of maximum entropy, we can obtain the most probable macrostate, which is shown as the revenue distribution of a society. In particular, we verify that the “assumption of representative agent” in modern micro-founded macroeconomics only holds in an ideal situation where the perfect competition involving a single industry is taken into account.
在统计物理学中,每一个微观状态都必须被牛顿方程(或薛定谔方程)所允许。同样,经济系统的每一个微观状态都必须为一般均衡理论所允许。我们的研究表明,竞争经济在很长一段时间内会产生大量的一般均衡,每一个一般均衡都可以被视为竞争经济的一个可能的微观状态。然后根据最大熵原理,得到最可能的宏观状态,即社会的收入分配。特别是,我们验证了现代微观宏观经济学中的“代表性代理人假设”仅在考虑单个行业完全竞争的理想情况下成立。
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引用次数: 0
Макроэкономические Факторы Динамики Фондового Рынка РФ (Macroeconomic Factors of the Russian Stock Market Dynamics) МакроэкономическиеФакторыДинамикиФондовогоРынкаРФ(俄罗斯股票市场动态的宏观经济因素)
Pub Date : 2013-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2360818
Vadim Zyamalov, Marina Turuntseva, Y. Ulyanenko
Целью данной работы является исследование влияния макроэкономических показателей на финансовые рынки и анализ степени влияния этих факторов. В первом разделе приведѐн краткий обзор работ по рассматриваемой теме, сформулированы гипотезы, касающиеся влияния различных макроэкономических показателей на стоимость финансовых активов и их доходность, и приведено теоретическое обоснование данных гипотез. This paper is about the macroeconomic indices and their effect on the financial markets and the investigation of the level of this impact. The authors provide a review of the publications on the subject, formulate hypothesis on the issue. The paper was prepared on the basis of the research carried out in accordance with the State job RANEPA in 2012.
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引用次数: 0
Alternative Specifications of Bank Lending in France and Germany: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications 法德两国银行借贷的另类规范:理论、证据与政策启示
Pub Date : 2013-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2339150
Robert E. Krainer
In this paper I compare a capital budgeting model of of bank lending based on stock valuations to a supply/demand model based on an interest rate channel for France and Germany using non-nested hypothesis tests and omitted variables tests. For France both tests indicate a strong rejection of the supply/demand model with an interest rate channel and non-rejection of the capital budgeting model with a stock market channel. The results for Germany are mixed. For Monetary Financial Institutions the non-nested hypothesis tests rejected both models. For the commercial banking sector of Monetary Financial Institutions both tests rejected the supply/demand model but did not reject the capital budgeting model. Do these results have any implications for policy? If volatility in share prices cause volitility in bank lending which in turn causes volitility in real economic activity, then government may want to begin thinking about ways to dampen the volatility in the stock market such as imposing more stringent margin requirements on stock purchases and open market operations by central banks in a broad index of equity shares. I then consider the feasibility of Central Banks buying and selling a diversified portfolio of equites.
在本文中,我使用非嵌套假设检验和省略变量检验比较了基于股票估值的银行贷款资本预算模型和基于利率渠道的供给/需求模型。对于法国,这两项测试都表明强烈拒绝带有利率渠道的供给/需求模型,而不拒绝带有股票市场渠道的资本预算模型。德国的结果喜忧参半。对于货币金融机构,非嵌套假设检验拒绝了这两个模型。对于货币金融机构的商业银行部门,这两项测试都拒绝了供需模型,但没有拒绝资本预算模型。这些结果对政策有什么启示吗?如果股价的波动导致银行贷款的波动,进而导致实体经济活动的波动,那么政府可能需要开始考虑抑制股市波动的方法,比如对股票购买和央行在广泛的股票指数中进行的公开市场操作施加更严格的保证金要求。然后,我考虑央行买卖多元化股票组合的可行性。
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引用次数: 1
The Capital Structure and Governance of a Mortgage Securitization Utility 一家抵押贷款证券化公司的资本结构与治理
Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2339288
P. Mosser, Joseph S. Tracy, Joshua Wright
We explore the capital structure and governance of a mortgage-insuring securitization utility operating with government reinsurance for systemic or “tail” risk. The structure we propose for the replacement of the GSEs focuses on aligning incentives for appropriate pricing and transfer of mortgage risks across the private sector and between the private sector and the government. We present the justification and mechanics of a vintage-based capital structure, and assess the components of the mortgage guarantee fee, whose size we find is most sensitive to the required capital ratio and the expected return on that capital. We discuss the implications of selling off some of the utility’s mortgage credit risk to the capital markets and how the informational value of such transactions may vary with the level of risk transfer. Finally, we explore how mutualization could address incentive misalignments arising out of securitization and government insurance, as well as how the governance structure for such a financial market utility could be designed.
我们探讨了一个抵押贷款保险证券化公用事业的资本结构和治理与政府再保险系统或“尾部”风险。我们提出的替代gse的结构侧重于在私营部门之间以及私营部门与政府之间调整激励措施,以适当定价和转移抵押贷款风险。我们提出了基于年份的资本结构的理由和机制,并评估了抵押担保费用的组成部分,我们发现其规模对所需资本比率和该资本的预期回报最为敏感。我们将讨论向资本市场出售一些公用事业的抵押贷款信用风险的影响,以及此类交易的信息价值如何随风险转移水平而变化。最后,我们探讨了共同化如何解决由证券化和政府保险引起的激励失调,以及如何设计这种金融市场效用的治理结构。
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引用次数: 5
Robust Political Economy: An Institutional Alternative Against Monetary Disequilibrium and Market Discoordination 稳健政治经济学:对抗货币不均衡和市场不协调的制度选择
Pub Date : 2013-09-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2340332
Pablo Paniagua
The scope of this essay seeks to understand how we can achieve a more stable and dynamically self-correcting monetary arrangement which will minimize the likelihood of having severe monetary disruptions on the economic system. We wish to find systems that minimize systemic macroeconomic disequilibrium, which arises whenever money severely distorts the structure of relative prices, creating market discoordination and hampering economic exchanges. Monetary equilibrium theory provides the propitious theoretical tool allowing us to comprehend how monetary disequilibrium may arise within the economic system. It also serves as a benchmark to which we can compare different monetary institutions; this enables us to determine which system might perform closer to our monetary equilibrium benchmark. Under this framework, we analyze two monetary arrangements: central banking and free-banking. Through a process of institutional comparison, we can establish which one can minimize overall market discoordination and therefore will do the least harm to the epistemic role of prices and other market signals in communicating the embedded information present in them. Finally using the framework of Robust Political Economy, we reevaluate the main assumptions which sustain the case for a centralized monetary institution on being capable of reaching the monetary equilibrium benchmark. We specifically reevaluate the assumptions concerning political pressure, self-interest, aligned incentives and the degree of decisionmakers’ omniscience present in central banking and free-banking. By relaxing these assumptions, we analyze how different monetary arrangements would be considered robust or fragile in achieving and maintaining monetary equilibrium.
本文的范围旨在理解我们如何才能实现更稳定和动态自我纠正的货币安排,这将最大限度地减少对经济体系造成严重货币破坏的可能性。我们希望找到使系统性宏观经济失衡最小化的制度,这种失衡在货币严重扭曲相对价格结构、造成市场失调和阻碍经济交流时就会出现。货币均衡理论为我们理解经济体系中的货币不均衡是如何产生的提供了有利的理论工具。它也可以作为一个基准,我们可以比较不同的货币机构;这使我们能够确定哪个系统的表现更接近我们的货币均衡基准。在这个框架下,我们分析了两种货币安排:中央银行和自由银行。通过制度比较的过程,我们可以确定哪一种制度可以最大限度地减少整体市场的不协调,从而对价格和其他市场信号在传达它们所包含的信息时的认知作用造成的伤害最小。最后,使用稳健政治经济学的框架,我们重新评估了支持集中式货币机构能够达到货币均衡基准的主要假设。我们特别重新评估了有关中央银行和自由银行中存在的政治压力、自利、一致激励和决策者无所不知程度的假设。通过放宽这些假设,我们分析了在实现和维持货币均衡方面,不同的货币安排如何被认为是稳健的或脆弱的。
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引用次数: 0
Back to Baseline in Britain: Adaptation in the British Household Panel Survey 英国回归基线:英国家庭小组调查中的适应
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12007
A. Clark, Y. Georgellis
We look for evidence of adaptation in wellbeing to major life events using eighteen waves of British panel data. Adaptation to marriage, divorce, birth of child and widowhood appears to be rapid and complete; this is not so for unemployment. These findings are remarkably similar to those in previous work on German panel data. Equally, the time profiles with life satisfaction as the wellbeing measure are very close to those using a twelve-item scale of psychological functioning. As such, the phenomenon of adaptation may be a general one, rather than being found only in German data or using single-item wellbeing measures.
我们使用18波英国面板数据寻找幸福适应重大生活事件的证据。对结婚、离婚、生孩子和守寡的适应似乎是迅速而彻底的;失业问题并非如此。这些发现与之前对德国面板数据的研究非常相似。同样,将生活满意度作为健康衡量标准的时间概况与使用12项心理功能量表的时间概况非常接近。因此,适应现象可能是一种普遍现象,而不是只在德国的数据中发现,也不是只使用单项福利指标。
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引用次数: 242
Optimal Monetary Policy with the Sticky Information Model of Price Adjustment: Inflation or Price‐Level Targeting? 价格调整粘性信息模型下的最优货币政策:通货膨胀还是价格水平目标制?
Pub Date : 2013-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2012.00441.x
M. Arslan
I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.
本文利用价格调整的粘性信息模型研究了新凯恩斯宏观经济框架下的最优货币政策。该模型求解了最优政策,并比较了在这种最优政策下,当经济受到成本推动冲击时,三种替代货币政策制度对福利的影响。这些货币政策制度是不受约束的政策、价格水平目标制和通货膨胀目标制。结果表明,最优政策取决于价格粘性程度和冲击持续时间。如果价格足够灵活,或者冲击足够持久,通胀目标制就会成为最优政策。然而,如果价格不是很灵活,冲击不是很持久,那么不受约束的政策或价格水平目标制可能比通胀目标制更可取。结果还表明,随着价格变得更加灵活,福利损失通常会变得更大。
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引用次数: 1
Rethinking Potential Output: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle 重新思考潜在产出:嵌入金融周期信息
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpw063
C. Borio, Piti Disyatat, M. Juselius
This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicates that output may be on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable whenever financial imbalances are building up. More generally, as long as potential output is identified with the non-cyclical component of output fluctuations and financial factors play a key role in explaining the cyclical part, ignoring these factors leaves out valuable information. Within a simple and transparent framework, we show that including information about the financial cycle can yield measures of potential output and output gaps that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. In the context of policy applications, such "finance-neutral" output gaps are shown to yield more reliable estimates of cyclically adjusted budget balances and to serve as complementary guides for monetary policy.
本文认为,纳入有关金融周期的信息对于改进潜在产出和产出缺口的衡量方法非常重要。从概念上讲,将潜在产出与非通胀产出区分开来的限制太大。潜在产出被认为是可持续的;然而,经验表明,每当金融失衡加剧时,即使通胀处于低位且稳定,产出也可能处于不可持续的道路上。更一般地说,只要潜在产出被认定为产出波动的非周期性组成部分,金融因素在解释周期性部分方面发挥关键作用,忽略这些因素就会遗漏有价值的信息。在一个简单而透明的框架内,我们表明,包含有关金融周期的信息可以产生潜在产出和产出缺口的衡量指标,这些指标不仅可以更精确地估计,而且在实时方面也更加稳健。在政策应用方面,这种“金融中性”产出缺口显示出对周期性调整预算平衡的更可靠估计,并可作为货币政策的补充指南。
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引用次数: 271
Real Frictions and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Roles of Distribution Service and Transaction Cost 实际摩擦与实际汇率动态:分配服务与交易成本的作用
Pub Date : 2012-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2319721
In Huh, Inkoo Lee
The fact that fluctuations in real exchange rates are highly volatile and persistent has been the central puzzle in international macroeconomics. This paper studies the role of real frictions in accounting for the puzzling behavior of real exchange rates. We show that the introduction of distribution costs and nontradable goods in an otherwise standard competitive model dramatically improves its ability to rationalize observed real exchange rate dynamics. We view our framework as complementary to those that emphasize the role of nominal rigidities.
实际汇率的波动具有高度的波动性和持久性,这一事实一直是国际宏观经济学的核心难题。本文研究了实际摩擦在解释实际汇率令人困惑的行为中的作用。我们证明,在一个标准的竞争模型中引入分销成本和不可贸易商品,极大地提高了其合理化观察到的实际汇率动态的能力。我们认为我们的框架是对那些强调名义刚性作用的框架的补充。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)
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