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Analysis of Non-Performing Loans’ Determinants in the Banking Sector of the Republic of Serbia 塞尔维亚共和国银行业不良贷款决定因素分析
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2021-0008
Kristijan Ristić, Mirjana Jemović
Abstract After the financial deregulation that marked the last two decades of the 20th century, banks lost their monopolistic position and faced a number of competitors on the financial market. Fighting for their market share, banks began to grant loans under more relaxed terms. This policy increased the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) and ultimately increased credit risk in the banking sector. The share of non-performing loans in total loans indicates the quality of bank assets, so their analysis and trend are an important parameter in assessing the stability of the banking and overall financial sector. The paper aims to analyze the NPL trend in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia in the period from 2010-2019 and, thus, identify determinants that significantly affect the extent of credit risk. The research uses vector autoregressive model (VAR), and the results confirm that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, return on total assets (ROA), cost efficiency, capital adequacy ratio, and income diversification affect NPLs. The analysis shows that the level of non-performing loans depends on a number of factors, both macroeconomic and bank-specific, which regulatory authorities must keep in mind when assessing the credit risk that banks face.
在20世纪最后20年的金融放松管制之后,银行失去了垄断地位,在金融市场上面临着众多竞争对手。为了争夺市场份额,银行开始以更宽松的条件发放贷款。这一政策增加了不良贷款(NPLs)的份额,最终增加了银行业的信贷风险。不良贷款占总贷款的比例反映了银行资产的质量,因此其分析和趋势是评估银行业和整个金融业稳定性的重要参数。本文旨在分析2010-2019年期间塞尔维亚共和国银行业的不良贷款趋势,从而确定显著影响信贷风险程度的决定因素。研究采用向量自回归模型(VAR),结果证实了国内生产总值(gdp)、通货膨胀、失业率、总资产收益率(ROA)、成本效率、资本充足率和收入多元化对不良贷款的影响。分析显示,不良贷款的水平取决于许多因素,既有宏观经济因素,也有银行自身的因素,监管当局在评估银行面临的信贷风险时必须牢记这些因素。
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引用次数: 3
Empirical Study of the Implementation of Certain Budgeting Concepts in Manufacturing Companies in Serbia 塞尔维亚制造企业预算理念实施的实证研究
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2021-0004
M. Nikodijević, Blagoje M. Novićević, M. Rogan
Abstract The basic indicators of manufacturing industry’s level of development are still at an unenviable level, although it provides the majority of tradable goods of Serbian economy and has the most significant share in gross domestic product. This state of the manufacturing industry in Serbia is the result of an unstable macroeconomic environment and institutional insecurity, as well as an inadequate management approach in companies of this sector. Taking into account the situation, there is an obvious need to change management approach in these companies, which includes improving their budgeting processes and systems. Budgeting, as a management instrument, has become important in companies in Serbia only in the last decades, that is, after the change of the economic system. The results of the conducted empirical study, aiming to perceive the current state and relevant management attitudes regarding the implementation of certain budgeting concepts in manufacturing companies in Serbia, are presented in this paper. The study aims to determine the current presence of certain budgeting concepts, as well as which concepts the management of the sample companies intends to implement in the future, since it considers them an appropriate and a good solution for its company, taking into account the specifics of its environment and business. The presented results will show whether manufacturing companies in Serbia follow global trends in budgeting practices that relate to the implementation of modern budgeting concepts with flexibility, customer focus and performance based as their key features.
虽然制造业提供了塞尔维亚经济的大部分可贸易商品,在国内生产总值中占有最重要的份额,但其发展水平的基本指标仍处于令人羡慕的水平。塞尔维亚制造业的这种状况是宏观经济环境不稳定和体制不安全以及该部门各公司管理办法不足的结果。考虑到这种情况,这些公司显然需要改变管理方法,包括改进其预算流程和系统。预算作为一种管理手段,只是在最近几十年,即在经济制度改变之后,才在塞尔维亚的公司中变得重要起来。本文提出了进行的实证研究的结果,旨在了解塞尔维亚制造公司实施某些预算概念的现状和相关管理态度。该研究旨在确定目前存在的某些预算概念,以及哪些概念的管理样本公司打算在未来实施,因为它认为这是一个适当的,一个很好的解决方案,为其公司,考虑到其环境和业务的具体情况。所提出的结果将显示塞尔维亚的制造公司是否遵循预算实践的全球趋势,这些趋势与实施以灵活性、以客户为中心和以绩效为基础的现代预算概念有关。
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引用次数: 1
Organizational Learning and Innovation in the Tourism Industry as a Basis for Creating Value for Tourists 旅游业组织学习与创新:为游客创造价值的基础
Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2021-0009
Ivana Kostadinović, S. Stanković
Abstract Organizational learning, innovation and creating value for tourists are the main issues in a successful tourism research. From that point of view, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between the variables included in the research: organizational learning, innovation and creating value for tourists. The tested conceptual model didn’t fit well, so it was corrected based on the recommendations for a possible revision of the model. The analysis results indicated a significant impact of organizational learning on innovation and on creating value for tourists. Innovation, also, has a significant impact on creating value for tourists. Furthermore, the results indicated that innovation established the relationship between organizational learning and creating value for tourists. These results show the importance of organizational learning and innovation to improve creating value for tourists.
组织学习、创新和为游客创造价值是成功旅游研究的主要问题。从这个角度来看,本研究的目的是检验研究中包含的变量之间的关系:组织学习,创新和为游客创造价值。经过测试的概念模型不太适合,因此根据可能修改模型的建议对其进行了修正。分析结果表明,组织学习对创新和游客创造价值有显著影响。创新对为游客创造价值也有重要影响。创新在组织学习与游客创造价值之间建立了联系。这些结果表明,组织学习和创新对于提高游客创造价值的重要性。
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引用次数: 5
Assessment of the Accounting Regulations in the Republic of Serbia: Application of Cluster Analysis 塞尔维亚共和国会计条例的评估:聚类分析的应用
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0031
Sunčica Milutinović, O. Grljević, D. Dimitrijevic
Abstract The focus of the paper is on identification of hidden patterns in the opinion of accounting professionals, in order to identify the deficiencies in the legal accounting regulations and to examine their perspective on international and legal accounting regulations. The data collected through the questionnaire was divided using clustering data mining technique. We identified different groups of accountants with specific patterns regarding the expressed attitudes towards both regulations, as well as different groups of accountants with specific patterns regarding the way of obtaining information. The findings point to the prevailing negative attitude towards the legal accounting regulations quality, and differences in the habits and attitudes of certified and non-certified accountants, i.e. accountants who (don’t) use International Financial Reporting Standards. Since there are four developed models, we used them as a basis for proposing a model of information seeking that could mitigate negative views on accounting regulations in the national economy. The key points of the proposed model are the introduction of compulsory continuous professional education and certification of all accountants, as well as activities for the popularization and accessibility of the international accounting regulations.
摘要本文的重点是识别会计专业人士认为的隐藏模式,以找出法律会计法规的不足之处,并审视他们对国际和法律会计法规的看法。利用聚类数据挖掘技术对通过问卷收集的数据进行分割。我们确定了不同的会计师群体对这两项法规所表达的态度具有特定的模式,以及不同的会计师群体对获取信息的方式具有特定的模式。调查结果表明,对法律会计法规质量普遍持消极态度,注册会计师和非注册会计师(即不使用国际财务报告准则的会计师)的习惯和态度存在差异。由于有四个已开发的模型,我们将它们作为提出信息寻求模型的基础,该模型可以减轻对国民经济中会计法规的负面看法。该模式的重点是引入强制性的持续专业教育和对所有会计人员进行认证,以及开展国际会计法规的普及和可及性活动。
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCOUNTING REGULATIONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA: APPLICATION OF CLUSTER ANALYSIS 塞尔维亚共和国会计法规之评估:聚类分析之应用
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ETHEMES-2020-0032
B. N. Čečević, Milica Đorđević
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引用次数: 4
Emerging Markets and Internationalization of Retail: The Case of BRIC Countries 新兴市场与零售业国际化:以金砖四国为例
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0027
S. Mladenovic, I. Mladenović, Marija Ranđelović
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the emerging markets and retail internationalization, with a special focus on the markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, also known as BRIC countries. The paper relies on the fact that the emerging markets, especially the markets of BRIC countries, have recently attracted an increasing attention of the scientific and professional community, as well as international retail companies. After the economic crisis in 2008, the internationalization of retail, as a key business strategy, is changing its direction and form, in order to focus on the emerging markets. Based on the available secondary data sources considering the operations of the largest international retail companies and the attractiveness of the emerging market from 2014 to 2018, we test the hypotheses set in this research. One of the key hypotheses is that a certain number of international retail companies present on the BRIC country market is determined by its ranking on the list of the most attractive markets. We test this hypothesis by constructing a simple regression model for each country individually. Another key hypothesis is that the ranking of a BRIC country on the list of the most attractive markets is the result of various factors. We test this hypothesis using the method of descriptive statistics for each country individually. The obtained research results have economic validity and they fill a scientific niche in the research of the relationship between the attractiveness of the BRIC market and the internationalization of retail. In addition, the obtained results represent the basis for further research of this issue, given the large-scale changes caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.
本文的主要目的是研究新兴市场与零售国际化之间的关系,特别关注巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国,也被称为金砖四国的市场。这篇论文基于这样一个事实,即新兴市场,特别是金砖四国市场,最近吸引了越来越多的科学和专业社区以及国际零售公司的关注。2008年经济危机后,零售业的国际化作为一项重要的经营战略,正在改变其方向和形式,以聚焦于新兴市场。基于现有的二手数据来源,考虑到2014年至2018年最大的国际零售公司的运营和新兴市场的吸引力,我们检验了本研究中设置的假设。其中一个关键假设是,金砖四国市场上存在的一定数量的国际零售公司是由其在最具吸引力市场名单上的排名决定的。我们通过为每个国家单独构建一个简单的回归模型来检验这一假设。另一个关键假设是,金砖四国在最具吸引力市场排行榜上的排名是多种因素共同作用的结果。我们对每个国家分别使用描述性统计的方法来检验这一假设。所得研究结果具有经济有效性,填补了金砖四国市场吸引力与零售业国际化关系研究的科学空白。此外,鉴于全球冠状病毒大流行造成的大规模变化,所获得的结果为进一步研究这一问题提供了基础。
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引用次数: 1
The Influence of Foreign Direct Investment Treatment in Domestic Legislation on the Economic Development of the Republic of Serbia 国内立法中外国直接投资待遇对塞尔维亚共和国经济发展的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0028
Milica Vukajlović, Tamara Milenković Kerković, D. Jocic
Abstract Serbia has been following a policy of subsidizing foreign direct investments since 2006 and it pays great attention to this type of investment capital in the field of development of our economy. Whether this can be considered as justified is a question to which this paper aims to provide an answer. Do the positive aspects of foreign direct investment necessarily come to the leading position in the country importing capital? The analysis of the positive effects of foreign direct investments on the economy of the host country shows that the multiple benefits of such attracted capital certainly exist, but that their manifestation is not unconditional and will depend on numerous factors. Due to the fact that the subsidy policy is current, the criteria for granting state incentives defined by the current regulation should be set so as to contribute to the manifestation of positive effects of foreign direct investments on the Serbian economy. However, their analysis shows that this is not the case. In addition, the impact that foreign direct investment has had on the Serbian economy indicates that the subsidy policy has not given the expected results. Having this in mind, the impact that the treatment of foreign direct investments in domestic legislation has on the economic development of the Republic of Serbia cannot be assessed as satisfactory.
自2006年以来,塞尔维亚一直实行补贴外国直接投资的政策,并非常重视这类投资资本在我国经济发展领域的作用。这是否可以被认为是合理的,这是一个问题,本文旨在提供一个答案。外国直接投资的积极方面一定会在资本输入国占据主导地位吗?对外国直接投资对东道国经济的积极影响的分析表明,这种吸引资本的多重效益肯定存在,但其表现不是无条件的,将取决于许多因素。由于补贴政策是现行的,应制定现行条例所规定的给予国家奖励的标准,以便有助于显示外国直接投资对塞尔维亚经济的积极影响。然而,他们的分析表明,情况并非如此。此外,外国直接投资对塞尔维亚经济的影响表明,补贴政策没有产生预期的结果。考虑到这一点,在国内立法中对外国直接投资的处理对塞尔维亚共和国经济发展的影响不能评价为令人满意。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Digitalisation on Economic Growth, Productivity and Employment 数字化对经济增长、生产力和就业的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0025
Milojko Arsic
Abstract Since the industrial revolution, technological innovations have enabled rise in productivity, employment, standard of living and the total population several times. In the last 15 years productivity growth has slowed-down in the most of large economies, probably due to slow diffusion of advanced IT solutions, but also due to inadequate statistical measurement of the value of IT services and slow progress in complementary and other technologies. The acceleration of productivity growth in the future is possible to foster through larger public investment in infrastructure and fundamental research, tax incentives and subsidies attached to innovations in the private sector, as well as through promotion of entrepreneurship and the reform of education system. The development and diffusion of digitalisation and other technologies is expected to trigger a slight acceleration in productivity, while explosive growth in productivity, as predicted by some theoreticians, is not likely to happen. The net effect of digitalisation on employment will be probably negative, but it is uncertain how much will be offset by a rise in availability of goods and services and creation of new types of goods and services. Employment will depend on the speed of adjustment of education system to technological changes and labour market requirements, as well as on the possibilities for vocational education and change in qualifications. An important reserve, which may reduce a drop in employment and enhance the welfare of citizens, lies in additional reduction of the working hours. In the long run, it is expected that the world population growth is to slowdown and then become negative, which will lead to a decrease in the labour force. In that case, full employment will be attained even with the decline in the number of jobs. In case of long-term massive unemployment, there is also an option for introduction of universal basic income or other type of social benefits, in order to prevent a significant rise in economic inequality.
自工业革命以来,技术创新使生产力、就业、生活水平和总人口提高了好几倍。在过去15年中,大多数大型经济体的生产率增长放缓,这可能是由于先进的IT解决方案传播缓慢,但也可能是由于对IT服务价值的统计测量不足,以及互补技术和其他技术进展缓慢。通过对基础设施和基础研究进行更大的公共投资,对私营部门的创新给予税收优惠和补贴,以及通过促进企业家精神和改革教育制度,将来有可能促进生产率的加速增长。数字化和其他技术的发展和扩散预计将引发生产率的小幅加速,而一些理论家预测的生产率爆炸式增长不太可能发生。数字化对就业的净影响可能是负面的,但目前还不确定,商品和服务供应的增加以及新型商品和服务的创造将在多大程度上抵消这一影响。就业将取决于教育制度适应技术变化和劳动力市场需求的调整速度,也取决于职业教育和改变资格的可能性。可以减少就业下降和提高公民福利的一个重要储备是进一步减少工作时间。从长远来看,预计世界人口增长将放缓,然后变为负增长,这将导致劳动力减少。在这种情况下,即使就业人数减少,也能实现充分就业。在长期大规模失业的情况下,还可以选择实行普遍基本收入或其他类型的社会福利,以防止经济不平等的显著加剧。
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引用次数: 10
Evaluating ICT Usage in Enterprises in Europe: Topsis Approach 评估信息通信技术在欧洲企业的使用:Topsis方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0030
N. Vasilić, Dusica Semencenko, Sanja Popović-Pantić
Abstract The main objective of the paper is to evaluate ICT usage in enterprises in 31 European countries. For that purpose, ICT usage in enterprises index (ICTEI) was developed using the TOPSIS approach based on the entropy method. Subsequently, having used the cluster analysis, countries were classified into clusters according to the observed indicators of ICT usage. Results show that Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Ireland are the top 5 countries when the advanced ICTs are prioritized. Based on the k-means clustering, Finland is a leader in a cluster of a very high ICT usage in enterprises and it is followed by Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. The cluster of high ICT usage in enterprises includes Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and United Kingdom. Finally, the countries characterized by moderate and modest ICT usage are positioned in the remaining two clusters. The results of this research will facilitate the perception of a country’s position in relation to others, but will also signal the need to take measures to strengthen the ICT capacity of the business sector in the countries with a low value of ICTEI.
摘要本文的主要目的是评估31个欧洲国家企业的ICT使用情况。为此,利用基于熵值法的TOPSIS方法编制了企业信息通信技术使用情况指数。随后,在使用聚类分析后,根据观察到的信息和通信技术使用指标将各国分类为聚类。结果显示,芬兰、丹麦、挪威、瑞典和爱尔兰是优先发展先进信息通信技术的前5个国家。基于k均值聚类,芬兰在企业ICT使用率极高的集群中处于领先地位,紧随其后的是丹麦、挪威和瑞典。企业ICT使用率较高的集群包括爱尔兰、荷兰、斯洛文尼亚、西班牙和英国。最后,信息通信技术使用适度和适度的国家位于剩下的两个集群中。这项研究的结果将有助于了解一个国家相对于其他国家的地位,但也将表明需要采取措施加强ICTEI值较低的国家的商业部门的ICT能力。
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引用次数: 3
Justification of the Usury Contract in the Law of the Republic of Serbia: Advantages and Disadvantages 塞尔维亚共和国法律中高利贷合同的正当性:利与弊
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2020-0029
T. Praštalo
Abstract A usury contract is a null and void contract whereby someone, using the condition of another’s misfortune or material hardship, lack of experience, recklessness, or dependency, obtains for himself or for a third party a benefit that is clearly disproportionate to what he or she has given or done in return or committed to give or do. The usury contract violates one of the basic principles of the law of obligations, which is the principle of equality of obligations, in other words, the equality of the value of mutual benefits of the contracting parties. Although the legal definition of the usury contracts (Law on Contracts and Torts, Article 141, paragraph 1) is comprehensive enough, it is not easy for the courts to decide whether one contract is usury or not, i.e. null and void. The subject of this paper is the analysis of the usury contracts through the current case law in the context of the justification of the existence of this institute in the legislation of Serbia, having in mind the division of opinions, and because as much as a party using a person’s difficult material situation is presented in a negative context, the contract of this type is nonetheless a product of the willing action of both parties. The topic of this paper is very sensitive and requires a reasoned methodological approach and analysis. The aim of the paper is also to encourage the affected party in the usury contract to enter into litigation to protect their rights.
高利贷合同是利用他人的不幸或者物质困难、缺乏经验、鲁莽或者依赖他人的条件,为自己或者第三人取得与其所给予、所做的回报或者承诺给予、所做的行为明显不相称的利益的无效合同。高利贷合同违反了义务法的一项基本原则,即义务平等原则,即缔约双方互利价值的平等。虽然高利贷合同的法律定义(《合同法》第141条第1款)非常全面,但法院很难判定一个合同是否为高利贷,即无效。本文的主题是在考虑到意见分歧的情况下,通过现行判例法在塞尔维亚立法中对高利贷合同的存在理由进行分析,并且由于一方利用某人的困难物质状况在负面背景下呈现,因此这种类型的合同仍然是双方自愿行动的产物。本文的主题是非常敏感的,需要一个合理的方法方法和分析。本文的目的也是为了鼓励高利贷合同中受影响的一方提起诉讼以保护自己的权利。
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引用次数: 0
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