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Test for asymmetry on the ex-pump price of premium gasoline in Ghana, Kenya, and Colombia 加纳、肯尼亚和哥伦比亚优质汽油出厂价格的非对称性检验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2021.01.en073
S. K. Klutse, G. Kiss
Once again, the World has been faced with an oil price shock as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. This has resurrected an old debate of whether retail fuel prices adjust significantly to either increases or decreases in international crude oil prices. With many countries moving towards the deregulation of their petroleum sub-sector, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on retail fuel prices cannot be overlooked. This study investigates the rate at which positive and negative changes in international Brent crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate affected the increases or decreases in the ex-pump price of premium gasoline between February 2012 and December 2019. Using a non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model, the exchange rate was found to play a significant role in fluctuations in the retail price of premium gasoline in Ghana and Colombia in the long run, howev-er, the rate of adjustment between the negative and positive changes was not significant, dispelling the perception of price asymmetry. There was no significant relationship between the ex-pump price of premium gasoline and the international Brent crude oil price in Ghana and Kenya in the long run. This study recommends that the aforementioned countries prioritise the creation of ex-change rate buffers to prevent exchange rate shocks that may affect retail fuel prices.
由于新冠肺炎大流行,世界再次面临油价冲击。这再次引发了一个古老的争论:燃油零售价格是否会随着国际原油价格的上涨或下跌而大幅调整。随着许多国家逐步放松对石油行业的管制,美元汇率对零售燃料价格的影响不容忽视。本研究考察了2012年2月至2019年12月期间,国际布伦特原油价格和美元汇率的正负变化对高档汽油出厂价格涨跌的影响程度。利用非线性自回归分布滞后模型,我们发现汇率在加纳和哥伦比亚高档汽油零售价格的长期波动中发挥了重要作用,然而,正负变化之间的调整速度并不显著,消除了价格不对称的看法。从长期来看,加纳和肯尼亚的优质汽油出厂价格与国际布伦特原油价格之间不存在显著的关系。本研究建议上述国家优先建立汇率缓冲,以防止可能影响零售燃料价格的汇率冲击。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of financial globalisation on stock market volatility in European Union countries 金融全球化对欧盟国家股市波动的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2022.01.en109
Heba F. Zaher, L. Buics
This study examines the impact of financial globalisation on stock market volatility in 24 countries, based on yearly observations from 1993 to 2019. Previous research shows that growing global financial linkages are decreasing countries’ stock market volatility. The financial globalisation composite index consists of two indices. The first is the de facto index, which measures the actual activities and flows between a country and other parts of the world, and the second is the de jure index, which expresses the conditions and policies that enable these activities and flows. According to the authors’ results, the de facto index has no significant effect on countries’ stock market volatility, while there is a significant negative relationship between the de jure index and stock market volatility, underlining the importance of policies and conditions conducive to financial globalisation.
本研究基于1993年至2019年的年度观察,考察了金融全球化对24个国家股市波动的影响。先前的研究表明,日益增长的全球金融联系正在降低各国股市的波动性。金融全球化综合指数由两个指数组成。第一个是事实指数,它衡量一个国家与世界其他地区之间的实际活动和流动;第二个是法律指数,它表达了使这些活动和流动成为可能的条件和政策。根据作者的研究结果,事实指数对各国股市波动没有显著影响,而法律指数与股市波动之间存在显著的负相关关系,这突显了有利于金融全球化的政策和条件的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Great periods of the Hungarian minimum subsistence calculation in international comparison 大时期匈牙利最低生活水平计算的国际比较
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20311/stat2016.k20.en044
Éva Havasi
In addition to giving a short international outlook, the paper aims to provide a historical summary of the Hungarian minimum subsistence calculation. The theoretical and practical arguments for and against this practice are also introduced.
除了给出一个简短的国际展望外,本文还旨在提供匈牙利最低生活计算的历史总结。还介绍了支持和反对这种做法的理论和实践论据。
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引用次数: 0
Personality profile of financial sales staff based on Super’s Work Values Inventory 基于Super工作价值观量表的金融销售人员性格特征分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2022.01.en048
I. Juhász
The primary aim of this study is to build a personality profile for financial sales personnel based on Super’s Work Values Inventory that will help select the best candidates for sales staff in the financial and insurance sectors. This personality profile could be used to decide whether a candidate’s psychometric characteristics are suitable for a financial sales position and meet the requirements of the profession as well as the general expectations of the given firm. To attain this aim, a comparative personality test was conducted in Hungary for the first time on a sample of 1,000 people working in the financial and insurance sectors. The following hypothesis is proposed by the author: Regarding sales associates in the financial and insurance sectors, the number of Super’s Work Values Inventory principal components and the items connected these principal components show a significant difference from the results of a 2006 Hungarian survey. The findings confirm this hypothesis.
本研究的主要目的是基于Super的工作价值观量表建立金融销售人员的个性特征,以帮助选择金融和保险行业销售人员的最佳候选人。这种性格特征可以用来决定候选人的心理特征是否适合金融销售职位,是否符合该行业的要求以及给定公司的总体期望。为了实现这一目标,匈牙利首次对在金融和保险部门工作的1000人进行了比较性格测试。作者提出了以下假设:关于金融和保险部门的销售人员,Super的工作价值观清单主成分的数量以及与这些主成分相关的项目显示出与2006年匈牙利调查结果的显著差异。研究结果证实了这一假设。
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引用次数: 0
Ensuring balance between data access and data protection 确保数据访问与数据保护的平衡
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20311/stat2016.k20.en064
Zoltán Vereczkei
The study, on the one hand, presents the main elements and co-management of the requests for statistical data and the obligation to protect them and, on the other hand, introduces the data access channels of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office that provides balance between data access and data protection.
该研究报告一方面介绍了统计数据请求的主要内容和共同管理以及保护这些数据的义务,另一方面介绍了匈牙利中央统计局在数据获取和数据保护之间取得平衡的数据获取渠道。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of socio-economic status and environmental factors on the academic performance of students at Asmara College of Education 社会经济地位和环境因素对阿斯马拉教育学院学生学业成绩的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2021.01.en051
Solomie Yohannes, Tesfahiwet Yemane, Maekele Okbay
This study examines whether various environmental factors and the socio-economic status of families influence academic achievement (cumulative grade point average) of students at Asmara College of Education (Asmara, Eritrea). A questionnaire survey was conducted among students to gather information on this subject. Descriptive statistics, crosstabs, Person chi-squared tests were used and analysis of variance was performed by the authors to study data. The results indicate that none of the variables examined, except gender of students and learning resources pro-vided by their families to them, affect cumulative grade point averages. Many students perceive that their academic achievement could be improved instead by building intrinsic motivation, plan-ning, and effective time management. Furthermore, Eritrea provides free education at all levels, including higher institutions, which thereby minimizes socio-economic constraints and provides equal opportunities to all citizens. However, parents should pay attention to their children to im-prove their academic performance, while colleges should also support students by providing a conducive environment for learning.
本研究考察了各种环境因素和家庭的社会经济地位是否会影响阿斯马拉教育学院(厄立特里亚阿斯马拉)学生的学业成绩(累积平均绩点)。在学生中进行了问卷调查,以收集有关这一主题的信息。采用描述性统计、交叉表、Person卡方检验和方差分析对数据进行研究。结果表明,除了学生的性别和家庭提供给他们的学习资源外,所有被检查的变量都没有影响累积平均成绩。许多学生认为,他们的学习成绩可以通过建立内在动机、计划和有效的时间管理来提高。此外,厄立特里亚提供各级免费教育,包括高等院校,从而尽量减少社会经济限制,并为所有公民提供平等机会。然而,父母应该关注他们的孩子来提高他们的学习成绩,而大学也应该通过提供一个有利的学习环境来支持学生。
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引用次数: 1
Maturity models : Taking stock and moving forward 成熟度模型:进行评估并向前推进
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2022.01.en003
Padmaka Mirihagalla, G. Vastag
Maturity models (MMs) are based on the premise that improved maturity in organisational capabilities leads to improvements in the desired outcome measures. This promising potential explains the growing popularity of MMs and the large number of publications on the subject in various academic and professional journals. The present study is based on an analysis of 339 MM papers published in 193 journals between 1973 and 2017. After giving a brief overview of the theoretical underpinnings of MMs, the authors focus on answering the question of ‘where to publish to achieve maximum impact’ from the perspective of potential authors. The impact of a publication, measured by the number of citations collected over its lifetime, is influenced by the quality of the journal (measured by the journal’s article influence score by Clarivate Analytics, Scimago Journal Ranking by Scimago, and Scimago Q category) and the length of public availability of the publication. Results from a variety of partitioning models (decision tree, bootstrap forest, and boosted tree) show that publishing in high-quality, recognised journals tends to result in more citations. In other words, in a network of journals, not all citations are equal as citations in selective, highly ranked journals are more equal than others. It is also important to emphasise that Scimago’s Q classification has no bearing on a paper’s post-publication success; Q classification is a noisy and poor measure of a journal’s quality that is not used globally.
成熟度模型(mm)是基于这样一个前提:组织能力成熟度的提高会导致预期结果度量的改进。这种有希望的潜力解释了mm越来越受欢迎,以及在各种学术和专业期刊上发表了大量关于该主题的出版物。本研究基于对1973年至2017年期间在193个期刊上发表的339篇论文的分析。在简要概述了mm的理论基础之后,作者着重从潜在作者的角度回答了“在哪里发表才能获得最大的影响”的问题。一篇出版物的影响力,通过其生命周期内收集的引用次数来衡量,受期刊质量(通过Clarivate Analytics的期刊文章影响力评分、Scimago期刊排名和Scimago Q类别来衡量)和出版物的公开可用性长度的影响。各种划分模型(决策树、自举森林和提升树)的结果表明,在高质量、公认的期刊上发表论文往往会获得更多的引用。换句话说,在一个期刊网络中,并不是所有的引用都是平等的,因为有选择性的、排名靠前的期刊的引用比其他期刊的引用更平等。同样重要的是要强调,Scimago的Q分类与论文发表后的成功无关;Q分类是衡量期刊质量的一种嘈杂而糟糕的方法,并没有在全球范围内使用。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical comparison of typical Hungarian administrative public service processes using key performance indicators 使用关键绩效指标对匈牙利典型行政公共服务程序进行统计比较
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2021.01.en090
L. Buics, E. Süle
This study aims to comparatively analyse the front office operations of two Hungarian gov-ernment windows, one located in a capital city district and the other in a county district centre, to examine the difference in the perceived service levels. First, through an international literature review, the study describes the background of the government window system and the importance of key performance indicators (KPIs). In addition, it demonstrates how KPIs can be measured in a public service context, regardless of the type and complexity of a given service. Second, the study provides a detailed statistical analysis and a comparison of the typical administrative public services related to waiting times, processing times, and lead times. Moreover, it offers an analogy of industrial service process management by presenting how the selected meth-ods and measures can be used to review processes related to an industrial, a manufacturing, or a public service, following a holistic management approach. The study contributes to the literature by using KPIs of the private sector and industry in public service processes and shows how these common KPIs can be measured in the public service context to provide valuable insights into service processes. Finally, it demonstrates the differences between the KPIs of the government windows to help legislators to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of services.
本研究旨在比较分析两个匈牙利政府窗口的前台业务,一个位于首都城市区,另一个位于县区中心,以检查感知服务水平的差异。首先,通过国际文献综述,阐述了政府窗口制度的背景和关键绩效指标(kpi)的重要性。此外,本文还演示了如何在公共服务上下文中度量kpi,而不管给定服务的类型和复杂性如何。其次,该研究对典型的行政公共服务的等待时间、处理时间和交付时间进行了详细的统计分析和比较。此外,它提供了一个工业服务流程管理的类比,通过展示如何使用所选择的方法和措施来审查与工业、制造业或公共服务相关的流程,遵循整体管理方法。该研究通过在公共服务流程中使用私营部门和行业的kpi,为文献做出了贡献,并展示了如何在公共服务环境中衡量这些常见的kpi,从而为服务流程提供有价值的见解。最后,它展示了政府窗口的关键绩效指标之间的差异,以帮助立法者提高服务的效率和效果。
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引用次数: 0
he application of network theory in official statistics 网络理论在官方统计中的应用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2019.02.en003
Á. Kincses, J. Szigeti
The challenges faced by official statistics in the 21st century are manifold. We are surrounded by systems that are becoming substantially more complex. The emergence of new phenomena, such as globalisation, digitalisation, has increased the complexity of the reality that needs to be meaningfully and timeously captured by official statistics; it has resulted in the development of new patterns, routes, and types of data, giving us the opportunity to further improve the relevance of statistics. In response to these trends, we need to find new tools and methods for the measurement of these dynamic phenomena. Network theory is an innovative approach that can help us handle the complexity of the 21st century. However, so far it has not featured in mainstream official statistics.
21世纪官方统计面临的挑战是多方面的。我们周围的系统正变得越来越复杂。全球化、数字化等新现象的出现,增加了现实的复杂性,官方统计数据需要有意义地、及时地捕捉这种复杂性;它导致了新的模式、路线和数据类型的发展,使我们有机会进一步提高统计的相关性。为了应对这些趋势,我们需要找到新的工具和方法来测量这些动态现象。网络理论是一种创新的方法,可以帮助我们处理21世纪的复杂性。然而,到目前为止,它还没有出现在主流官方统计数据中。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical analysis of Hungarian public service processes for key performance indicator measurement 匈牙利公共服务过程关键绩效指标测量的统计分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.35618/hsr2020.02.en071
L. Buics, E. Süle
The sophisticated and extensive toolkit for designing, managing, and measuring industrial processes is constantly expanding and forced to meet the new standards that are set by the limitless amount of data offered by the digitalisation of the industrial environment. However, services are managed under cumbersome conditions, in terms of expectations, measurability, and the modelling techniques used. Key performance indicators (KPIs) have been used for a long time in the private sector and industry compared with the public sector. Companies often use KPIs to measure the performance of individual processes to determine whether they meet or fail the expectations of customers and themselves. While public sector service providers are often monopolistic, the performance measurement also becomes a hot debate in the public sector as the citizens’ demand for quality services increases. This study aims to identify objective KPIs and demonstrate how they can be measured in a public service context, regardless of the type and complexity of the given service. As an example, the authors discuss the front office operations of government windows and the contact affair procedures of guardianship offices. They apply business process modelling in order to map the service processes and perform a statistical analysis to extract waiting, processing and lead times from the available dataset to comprehensively overlook these services. Their goal is to offer an analogy of industrial service process management by presenting how the methods and measures can be used to review processes in an industrial, manufacturing or public service, using a holistic management approach.
用于设计、管理和测量工业过程的复杂而广泛的工具包正在不断扩展,并被迫满足工业环境数字化所提供的无限数据所设定的新标准。然而,就期望、可度量性和所使用的建模技术而言,服务是在繁琐的条件下管理的。与公共部门相比,关键绩效指标(kpi)在私营部门和工业中已经使用了很长时间。公司经常使用kpi来度量单个流程的性能,以确定它们是否满足客户和自己的期望。虽然公共部门服务提供者往往具有垄断性,但随着公民对优质服务需求的增加,绩效评估也成为公共部门的一个热门话题。本研究旨在确定客观的kpi,并展示如何在公共服务环境中衡量它们,而不管给定服务的类型和复杂性如何。以政府窗口的前台运作和监护办公室的联络事务程序为例进行了探讨。他们应用业务流程建模来映射服务流程,并执行统计分析,从可用数据集中提取等待、处理和交付时间,从而全面忽略这些服务。他们的目标是提供一个工业服务过程管理的类比,通过展示如何使用方法和措施来使用整体管理方法来审查工业、制造业或公共服务中的过程。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Hungarian Statistical Review
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