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Finance and the Supply of Housing Quality 金融与住房质量供给
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3446411
Michael Reher
I show how financial intermediaries affect rental housing quality and affordability by supplying real estate investors with financing for quality improvement projects (i.e., renovations). First, I document a historic surge in improvement activity since the Great Recession. Then, using exogenous variation generated by a 2015 change in regulatory capital requirements, I find that a reallocation of bank credit toward improvement projects accounts for 24% of quality improvements since 2015. The shock increases the supply of high-quality apartments and lowers their rent. However, it raises the average apartment's rent and accounts for 32% of historically high rent growth over 2015-16.
我展示了金融中介如何通过向房地产投资者提供质量改善项目(即翻新)的融资来影响租赁住房的质量和可负担性。首先,我记录了自大衰退以来改善活动的历史性激增。然后,利用2015年监管资本要求变化所产生的外生变化,我发现,自2015年以来,银行信贷向改善项目的再分配占质量改善的24%。这种冲击增加了优质公寓的供应,降低了租金。然而,它提高了公寓的平均租金,占2015-16年历史最高租金增长的32%。
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引用次数: 10
"Not in My Backyard!" the 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany “不要在我的后院!”2015年德国难民危机
Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3697189
Kathleen Kürschner Rauck
This paper exploits the sudden mass arrival of refugees to Germany in 2015 to study potential price penalties suffered by residential property in vicinity of refugee reception centers (RRCs). Using novel data on exact locations of publicly-run RRCs in 2014 and 2015 and monthly offers of single-family homes for sale from Germany’s leading online property broker ImmobilienScout24, we find strong evidence in spatial DiD regressions for a sizeable negative effect on house price growth in proximity to such sites. Detached and semi-detached houses located within a 15-minute walking distance of RRCs exhibit, on average, 13 percentage points lower price growth than comparable dwellings beyond this threshold. We corroborate our finding in a battery of robustness tests and additional explorations, including sample restrictions that consider exclusively property on offer for sale within 40 minutes walking distance to RRCs and exogenous variation in the exposure to such sites. ‘Not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) stances among the resident population may explain our finding.
本文利用2015年难民突然大规模抵达德国的情况,研究难民接待中心(rrc)附近住宅物业可能遭受的价格处罚。利用2014年和2015年公共运营的RRCs确切位置的新数据,以及德国领先的在线房地产经纪人ImmobilienScout24每月出售的单户住宅报价,我们在空间DiD回归中发现了强有力的证据,表明这些站点附近的房价增长存在相当大的负面影响。距离RRCs步行15分钟内的独立式和半独立式住宅的价格涨幅平均比超过这一阈值的同类住宅低13个百分点。我们通过一系列稳健性测试和额外的探索证实了我们的发现,包括只考虑距离RRCs步行40分钟内出售的房产的样本限制,以及暴露在这些地点的外源性变化。常住人口中“不要在我家后院”(邻避)的态度可能解释了我们的发现。
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引用次数: 2
Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe 欧洲家庭债务与经济增长
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3684399
Luca Barbaglia, S. Manzan, Elisa Tosetti
We investigate the role and impact of household debt on the economic performance of the European economy during the double-dip recession of 2008-2013. We use a loan-level data set of millions of residential mortgages originated between 2000 and 2013 to calculate regional indicators of household debt and property prices. The detailed information allows us to construct a measure of interest rate mis-pricing during the housing boom that we use to identify the effect of a credit shock on household debt. Our analysis provides three main conclusions. First, in the period 2004-2006 the measure of credit shock was negative in most European regions which indicates that credit conditions were significantly relaxed relative to earlier years. Second, we find that regions in which household leverage increased more rapidly during the 2004-2006 period experienced a more severe decline in output and employment after 2008. These results are consistent with the view that an aggregate credit supply shock in Europe boosted household leverage and house prices. Third, we find that the credit shock had the largest effect on increasing leverage for the low-income and the middle-income households, although the change in leverage of the middle-income households represents a more powerful predictor of the decline in economic activity.
我们研究了2008-2013年双底衰退期间家庭债务对欧洲经济表现的作用和影响。我们使用2000年至2013年间数百万笔住房抵押贷款的贷款水平数据集来计算家庭债务和房地产价格的区域指标。这些详细信息使我们能够构建一个衡量房地产繁荣期间利率错误定价的指标,我们用它来确定信贷冲击对家庭债务的影响。我们的分析提供了三个主要结论。首先,在2004-2006年期间,大多数欧洲地区的信贷冲击指标为负,这表明信贷条件相对于前几年明显宽松。其次,我们发现,在2004-2006年期间家庭杠杆率增长较快的地区,在2008年之后的产出和就业下降更为严重。这些结果与欧洲总信贷供应冲击推高了家庭杠杆率和房价的观点一致。第三,我们发现信贷冲击对低收入和中等收入家庭杠杆增加的影响最大,尽管中等收入家庭杠杆的变化代表了经济活动下降的更有力的预测指标。
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引用次数: 0
The Health Consequence of Rising Housing Prices in China 中国房价上涨对健康的影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3686433
Y. Xu, Feicheng Wang
China has experienced a rapid boom in real estate prices in the last few decades, leading toa substantial increase in living costs and heavy financial burdens on households. Usingan instrumental variable approach, this paper exploits spatial and temporal variation inhousing price appreciation linked to individual-level health data in China from 2000 to 2011.We find robust evidence that increases in housing prices significantly raise the probability ofresidents having chronic diseases. This negative health impact is more pronounced amongindividuals from low-income families, households that purchased rather than inheritedor was allocated the home, and those who migrated from rural to urban areas. We alsofind evidence that marriage market competition exacerbates these negative health effects,particularly for males and parents with young adult sons. Further empirical results suggestthat housing price appreciation induces negative health consequences through increasedwork intensity, higher mental stress, and reduced sleep time. This paper provides a novelexplanation to the increased prevalence of chronic diseases in China.
在过去的几十年里,中国经历了房地产价格的快速上涨,导致生活成本大幅增加,家庭经济负担沉重。本文采用工具变量方法,分析了2000 - 2011年中国住房价格升值与个人健康数据的时空变化关系。我们发现有力的证据表明,房价的上涨显著提高了居民患慢性病的可能性。这种对健康的负面影响在低收入家庭、购买而非继承或分配住房的家庭以及从农村迁移到城市地区的个人中更为明显。我们还发现有证据表明,婚姻市场竞争加剧了这些负面的健康影响,尤其是对男性和有年幼成年儿子的父母而言。进一步的实证结果表明,房价升值会通过增加工作强度、增加精神压力和减少睡眠时间而对健康产生负面影响。本文对中国慢性病患病率的上升提供了一个新的解释。
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引用次数: 7
Airbnb and Rents: Evidence from Berlin Airbnb和租金:来自柏林的证据
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3676909
Tomaso Duso, C. Michelsen, Maximilian Schäfer, Kevin Ducbao Tran
Cities worldwide have regulated peer-to-peer short-term rental platforms claiming that those platforms remove apartments from the long-term housing market, causing an in- crease in rents. Establishing and quantifying such a causal link is, however, challenging. We investigate two policy changes in Berlin to first assess how effective they were in regulating Airbnb, the largest online peer-to-peer short-term rental platform. We document that the policy changes reduced the number of entire homes listed on Airbnb substantially, by eight to ten listings per square kilometer. In particular the introduction of limitations on the misuse of regular rental apartments as short-term accommodations, also strongly reduced the average number of days per year that Airbnb listings are available for booking. In a second step, we then use this policy-induced change in Airbnb supply to assess the impact of Airbnb on rents in the city. Our results suggest that each nearby apartment on Airbnb increases average monthly rents by at least seven cents per square meter. This effect is larger for Airbnb listings that are available for rent for a larger part of the year. Further analyses suggest some effect heterogeneity across the city. In particular, areas with lower Airbnb density tend to be affected more by additional Airbnb listings.
世界各地的城市都对p2p短租平台进行了监管,声称这些平台将公寓从长期住房市场中移除,导致租金上涨。然而,建立和量化这种因果关系是具有挑战性的。我们调查了柏林的两项政策变化,首先评估了它们对Airbnb(最大的在线点对点短期租赁平台)的监管效果。我们的文件显示,这些政策变化大幅减少了Airbnb上的完整房源数量,每平方公里减少了8到10个房源。特别是对将普通出租公寓误用为短期住宿的限制措施的引入,也大大减少了Airbnb房源每年可供预订的平均天数。在第二步中,我们使用这种政策引起的Airbnb供应变化来评估Airbnb对城市租金的影响。我们的研究结果表明,Airbnb上每套附近公寓的平均月租金每平方米至少增加7美分。对于在一年中大部分时间都可以出租的Airbnb房源来说,这种影响更大。进一步的分析表明,整个城市的影响存在一定的异质性。特别是,Airbnb密度较低的地区往往更容易受到Airbnb新增房源的影响。
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引用次数: 15
Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE Model with Housing 收益率曲线与宏观经济:来自住房的DSGE模型的证据
Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3659679
Xiaojin Sun, K. Tsang
The slope of the yield curve has long been found to be a useful predictor of future economic activity, but the relationship is unstable. One change we have identified in this paper is that, starting from the 1990s, movements at the long end of the yield curve have an increase in predictive power. We use a medium-scale DSGE model with a housing sector and a yield curve as a guide to find out the sources of such change. The model implies that an increase in the short-term interest rate and a decrease in the long-term interest rate have different impacts on the economy, and to use the slope as a predictor one needs to distinguish movements at the two ends of the yield curve. Based on simulated data from the model, we find that nominal wage rigidities and the capital adjustment costs are closely related to the predictive power of the yield curve. This result is further confirmed with actual data.
长期以来,人们一直认为收益率曲线的斜率是预测未来经济活动的有用指标,但这种关系并不稳定。我们在本文中发现的一个变化是,从20世纪90年代开始,收益率曲线长端走势的预测能力有所增强。我们使用一个中等规模的DSGE模型,以住房部门和收益率曲线为指导,找出这种变化的来源。该模型表明,短期利率的上升和长期利率的下降对经济有不同的影响,要使用斜率作为预测指标,需要区分收益率曲线两端的变动。基于模型的模拟数据,我们发现名义工资刚性和资本调整成本与收益率曲线的预测能力密切相关。实际数据进一步证实了这一结果。
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引用次数: 0
Azerbaijan Housing Market at the Harmony of Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition and Mechanism Design 布林德-瓦哈卡协调下的阿塞拜疆住房市场分解与机制设计
Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3796007
N. Mammadova, Arzu Haydarova, A. Malikova, H. Aliyev, O. Mammadov
Being argumentative in nature and referring to Oaxaca Decomposition for the purpose of defining the main drivers of rental flats and houses, be new, old, repaired, or unrepaired, together with applying the difference in difference method to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy, this paper calls into the question of how to inaugurate a country-specific two-sided matching algorithm for rental house allocation based on the empirical results. Model 3 is built on time series data to evaluate the policy implementation by the Azerbaijani government to provide households with financial aid. Based on Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition, the main findings of the study manifest that for the repaired and unrepaired houses, the price discrimination is mainly explained by the room number while this is an area of the houses per meter square that explains the price gap between old and new flats. The Difference in Difference model signifies that the increase in the number of mortgage loans from 50.000 AZN to 150.000 AZN declined demand more than the increase in supply. Additionally, the study offers 2 Matching Algorithm and Mechanism Design for the allocation of rental houses with existing tenants and newcomers in addition to tenants and owners without initial endowments through YRMH-IGYT in two-sided matching markets.
本文具有论证性质,参考瓦哈卡分解(Oaxaca Decomposition)来定义租赁公寓和房屋的主要驱动因素,即新、旧、维修或未维修,并运用差中之差方法来评估政策的有效性,如何在实证结果的基础上,开启一种针对具体国家的租赁房屋分配双边匹配算法。模型3基于时间序列数据来评估阿塞拜疆政府对家庭提供财政援助的政策执行情况。基于Blinder-Oaxaca分解,研究的主要发现表明,对于修复和未修复的房屋,价格歧视主要由房间数来解释,而这是每平方米房屋的面积,解释了新旧公寓之间的价格差距。差异中的差异模型表明,抵押贷款数量从5万AZN增加到15万AZN时,需求的下降大于供应的增加。在双边匹配市场中,通过YRMH-IGYT给出既有租户和新租户以及无初始禀赋的租户和业主的租赁房屋配置匹配算法和机制设计。
{"title":"Azerbaijan Housing Market at the Harmony of Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition and Mechanism Design","authors":"N. Mammadova, Arzu Haydarova, A. Malikova, H. Aliyev, O. Mammadov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3796007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3796007","url":null,"abstract":"Being argumentative in nature and referring to Oaxaca Decomposition for the purpose of defining the main drivers of rental flats and houses, be new, old, repaired, or unrepaired, together with applying the difference in difference method to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy, this paper calls into the question of how to inaugurate a country-specific two-sided matching algorithm for rental house allocation based on the empirical results. Model 3 is built on time series data to evaluate the policy implementation by the Azerbaijani government to provide households with financial aid. Based on Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition, the main findings of the study manifest that for the repaired and unrepaired houses, the price discrimination is mainly explained by the room number while this is an area of the houses per meter square that explains the price gap between old and new flats. The Difference in Difference model signifies that the increase in the number of mortgage loans from 50.000 AZN to 150.000 AZN declined demand more than the increase in supply. Additionally, the study offers 2 Matching Algorithm and Mechanism Design for the allocation of rental houses with existing tenants and newcomers in addition to tenants and owners without initial endowments through YRMH-IGYT in two-sided matching markets.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85530120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth 位置,位置,位置:制造业和房价增长
Pub Date : 2020-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3607876
Xiangyu Feng, Nir Jaimovich, Krishna Rao, S. Terry, Nicolas Vincent
Exploiting data on tens of millions of housing transactions, we show that (1) house prices grew by less in manufacturing-heavy US regions, (2) that this pattern is especially present for the lowest-value homes, and (3) that price declines coincided with worse labor market outcomes, consistent with an income channel. Counterfactual accounting exercises reveal that regional differences in the growth of these lowest-value homes are an important driver of the changes in overall house price inequality. Hence, the economic decline in manufacturing-heavy areas extends far beyond income and employment flows to house prices.
利用数以千万计的住房交易数据,我们表明:(1)美国以制造业为主的地区房价涨幅较小,(2)这种模式尤其适用于最低价值的房屋,(3)价格下跌与劳动力市场结果恶化相吻合,与收入渠道一致。反事实的会计实践表明,这些最低价值房屋增长的地区差异是整体房价不平等变化的重要驱动因素。因此,在以制造业为主的地区,经济下滑远远超出了收入和就业流向房价的范围。
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引用次数: 1
Decision Tree and Boosting Techniques in Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Valuation Models (AI-AVM) 基于人工智能的自动估值模型(AI-AVM)中的决策树和提升技术
Pub Date : 2020-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3605798
T. Sing, J. Yang, S. Yu
This paper develops an artificial intelligence-based automated valuation model (AI-AVM) using the decision tree and the boosting techniques to predict residential property prices in Singapore. We use more than 300,000 property transaction data from Singapore’s private residential property market for the period from 1995 to 2017 for the training of the AI-AVM models. The two tree-based AI-AVM models show superior performance over the traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) model when predicting the property prices. We also extend the application of the AI-AVM to more homogenous public housing prices in Singapore, and the predictive performance remains robust. The boosting AI-AVM models that allow for inter-dependence structure in the decision trees is the best model that explains more than 88% of the variance in both private and public housing prices and keep the prediction errors to less than 6% for HDB and 9% for the private market. When subject the AI-AVM to the out-of-sample forecasting using the 2017-2019 testing property sale samples, the prediction errors remain within a narrow range of between 5% and 9%.
本文开发了一个基于人工智能的自动估值模型(AI-AVM),使用决策树和提升技术来预测新加坡的住宅物业价格。我们使用了1995年至2017年期间新加坡私人住宅房地产市场的30多万笔房地产交易数据来训练AI-AVM模型。两种基于树的AI-AVM模型在预测房地产价格时表现出优于传统多元回归分析(MRA)模型的性能。我们还将AI-AVM的应用扩展到新加坡更同质化的公共住房价格,预测性能仍然强劲。考虑决策树中相互依赖结构的增强AI-AVM模型是最好的模型,它解释了超过88%的私人和公共住房价格差异,并将组屋的预测误差控制在6%以下,私人市场的预测误差控制在9%以下。当使用2017-2019年测试房产销售样本对AI-AVM进行样本外预测时,预测误差保持在5% - 9%的狭窄范围内。
{"title":"Decision Tree and Boosting Techniques in Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Valuation Models (AI-AVM)","authors":"T. Sing, J. Yang, S. Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3605798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3605798","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops an artificial intelligence-based automated valuation model (AI-AVM) using the decision tree and the boosting techniques to predict residential property prices in Singapore. We use more than 300,000 property transaction data from Singapore’s private residential property market for the period from 1995 to 2017 for the training of the AI-AVM models. The two tree-based AI-AVM models show superior performance over the traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) model when predicting the property prices. We also extend the application of the AI-AVM to more homogenous public housing prices in Singapore, and the predictive performance remains robust. The boosting AI-AVM models that allow for inter-dependence structure in the decision trees is the best model that explains more than 88% of the variance in both private and public housing prices and keep the prediction errors to less than 6% for HDB and 9% for the private market. When subject the AI-AVM to the out-of-sample forecasting using the 2017-2019 testing property sale samples, the prediction errors remain within a narrow range of between 5% and 9%.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91072306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
House Price Forecasting Based on Hybrid Multi-regression Model 基于混合多元回归模型的房价预测
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3601507
Shivdutt Vishwakarma, Swasti Singhal
It is important to manage the production by analyzing the demand in the market. The market faces uncertain demands, short life cycle and lack of historical sales data due to which, forecasting becomes challenging. Various approaches have been proposed over the past few decades concerning this issue. This paper forms a basis for understanding the prediction mechanism by presenting a comprehensive literature review along with various domains in which sales forecasting can be done. For any prediction process we can’t define a certain model that will just outperform every other model but we can try and find suitable model according to the data. We have defined various models and also a hybrid model to predict the selling price of house based on its features, thus feature engineering is also applied to extract a fruitful dataset.
通过分析市场需求来管理生产是很重要的。由于市场需求不确定,生命周期短,缺乏历史销售数据,因此预测变得具有挑战性。在过去的几十年里,关于这个问题提出了各种各样的方法。本文通过全面的文献综述以及可以进行销售预测的各个领域,为理解预测机制奠定了基础。对于任何预测过程,我们都不能定义一个特定的模型,它将优于其他所有模型,但我们可以根据数据尝试找到合适的模型。我们定义了各种模型和混合模型,根据房屋的特征来预测房屋的销售价格,从而应用特征工程提取了一个富有成效的数据集。
{"title":"House Price Forecasting Based on Hybrid Multi-regression Model","authors":"Shivdutt Vishwakarma, Swasti Singhal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3601507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3601507","url":null,"abstract":"It is important to manage the production by analyzing the demand in the market. The market faces uncertain demands, short life cycle and lack of historical sales data due to which, forecasting becomes challenging. Various approaches have been proposed over the past few decades concerning this issue. This paper forms a basis for understanding the prediction mechanism by presenting a comprehensive literature review along with various domains in which sales forecasting can be done. For any prediction process we can’t define a certain model that will just outperform every other model but we can try and find suitable model according to the data. We have defined various models and also a hybrid model to predict the selling price of house based on its features, thus feature engineering is also applied to extract a fruitful dataset.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78577958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)
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