The main purpose of this paper is to show the way to conduct a risk based mortgage loan choice process for low and middle income households in Turkey. There are several studies that analyze the impact of buying a house decision on an investor’s portfolio, which consists of house, stocks and bonds. In this study, house is treated as a single investment. The probability of defaults for the cash flows based on mortgage payments, rents, down payment and depreciation are calculated in order to find the amount of mortgage loan for a given rent and maturity. Net present values of cash flows related with buying a house are calculated via stochastic interest rates based on historical simulation. It is found that the amount of mortgage loan can be determined by risk based approach and a rational choice can be made in terms of household risk management.
{"title":"Choosing the Appropriate Amount of Mortgage Loan: Risk Based Decision Making","authors":"S. Gunay, Kasirga Yildirak","doi":"10.5539/IJEF.V8N11P12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5539/IJEF.V8N11P12","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this paper is to show the way to conduct a risk based mortgage loan choice process for low and middle income households in Turkey. There are several studies that analyze the impact of buying a house decision on an investor’s portfolio, which consists of house, stocks and bonds. In this study, house is treated as a single investment. The probability of defaults for the cash flows based on mortgage payments, rents, down payment and depreciation are calculated in order to find the amount of mortgage loan for a given rent and maturity. Net present values of cash flows related with buying a house are calculated via stochastic interest rates based on historical simulation. It is found that the amount of mortgage loan can be determined by risk based approach and a rational choice can be made in terms of household risk management.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84072519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the local economic impacts of the U.S. military personnel contractions between 1988 and 2000. I propose a novel empirical strategy combining synthetic control and instrumental variables methods, and jointly estimate the causal effects on the equilibrium quantities and prices of local labor, housing, and product markets. Military personnel contractions substantially reduced local civilian employment, but mainly through reductions in in-migration, local population adjusted quickly, resulting in small changes in wages and large declines in rental prices. Relating these empirical findings to a simple spatial equilibrium model, I show that the welfare cost on workers is small while that on landowners is sizable.
{"title":"The Local Economic Impacts of Military Personnel Contractions in the 1990s","authors":"B. Zou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2850556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2850556","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the local economic impacts of the U.S. military personnel contractions between 1988 and 2000. I propose a novel empirical strategy combining synthetic control and instrumental variables methods, and jointly estimate the causal effects on the equilibrium quantities and prices of local labor, housing, and product markets. Military personnel contractions substantially reduced local civilian employment, but mainly through reductions in in-migration, local population adjusted quickly, resulting in small changes in wages and large declines in rental prices. Relating these empirical findings to a simple spatial equilibrium model, I show that the welfare cost on workers is small while that on landowners is sizable.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"146 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86202492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zacharias G. Bragoudakis, M. Emiris, Mihnea Constantinescu
This paper presents a selected review of what the literature discusses in terms of modelling and forecasting house prices. In particular, it distils fundamental and “other” determinants of house prices used in economic models and identifies the most commonly used econometric approaches to estimate and forecast house prices.
{"title":"Selected Review of the Empirical Literature on House Price Modelling and Forecasting: What Does the Literature Say?","authors":"Zacharias G. Bragoudakis, M. Emiris, Mihnea Constantinescu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3160945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160945","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a selected review of what the literature discusses in terms of modelling and forecasting house prices. In particular, it distils fundamental and “other” determinants of house prices used in economic models and identifies the most commonly used econometric approaches to estimate and forecast house prices.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84456255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study is the first to examine the relationship between conspicuous demand and housing price dynamics. We hypothesize that conspicuous consumers would want high‐end homes to signal their wealth and this housing consumption behavior would induce greater deviations from fundamental house prices. We test this by using a unique dataset that matches the consumers’ appetite for nonhousing luxury goods from Google Insights for Search to housing premiums that they pay for high‐end houses in U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) during 2004–2011. The estimation results demonstrate that controlling for a wide range of MSA demographic and economic characteristics, conspicuous demand has a significant, positive relationship with housing premiums. This relationship varies spatially and temporally. Conspicuous demand has a stronger relationship with a price increase in high‐end homes in MSAs with a steady, higher housing premium than in MSAs with a volatile, lower premium during the boom period. In MSAs with a steady, higher housing premium, the relationship remains significant even during the bust period, potentially contributing to maintaining higher housing premiums.
{"title":"Do Conspicuous Consumers Pay Higher Housing Premiums? Spatial and Temporal Variation in the United States","authors":"K. Lee, M. Mori","doi":"10.1111/1540-6229.12115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12115","url":null,"abstract":"This study is the first to examine the relationship between conspicuous demand and housing price dynamics. We hypothesize that conspicuous consumers would want high‐end homes to signal their wealth and this housing consumption behavior would induce greater deviations from fundamental house prices. We test this by using a unique dataset that matches the consumers’ appetite for nonhousing luxury goods from Google Insights for Search to housing premiums that they pay for high‐end houses in U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) during 2004–2011. The estimation results demonstrate that controlling for a wide range of MSA demographic and economic characteristics, conspicuous demand has a significant, positive relationship with housing premiums. This relationship varies spatially and temporally. Conspicuous demand has a stronger relationship with a price increase in high‐end homes in MSAs with a steady, higher housing premium than in MSAs with a volatile, lower premium during the boom period. In MSAs with a steady, higher housing premium, the relationship remains significant even during the bust period, potentially contributing to maintaining higher housing premiums.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78973489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Improving the energy efficiency levels of housing is of particular concern in the private rental market where capital costs and subsequent utility cost savings are not shared in equal measure by landlords and tenants. This problem is particularly pronounced in Germany where rental properties make up the majority of the housing stock. The present study is the largest and most comprehensive study of the value of energy efficiency in the German housing market and investigates the effect of energy efficiency ratings on rental values across 412 markets in Germany. Using a semiparametric hedonic model and an empirical sample of nearly 300k observations with full hedonic characteristics, we find strong evidence that energy-efficient rental units are rented at a premium. A survival hazard model is then used to study the impact of the ratings on time-on-market. It is found that energy-efficient rental properties tend to lease up more quickly than their non-efficient peers. This study provides a robust framework for policy makers and property companies for understanding how energy efficiency and expected utility costs of a rental property affect asking and effective rents.
{"title":"Are Energy Efficiency Ratings Ignored in the German Housing Market? – Evidence from a Large-Sample Hedonic Study","authors":"Marcelo Cajias, F. Fuerst, S. Bienert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2799206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2799206","url":null,"abstract":"Improving the energy efficiency levels of housing is of particular concern in the private rental market where capital costs and subsequent utility cost savings are not shared in equal measure by landlords and tenants. This problem is particularly pronounced in Germany where rental properties make up the majority of the housing stock. The present study is the largest and most comprehensive study of the value of energy efficiency in the German housing market and investigates the effect of energy efficiency ratings on rental values across 412 markets in Germany. Using a semiparametric hedonic model and an empirical sample of nearly 300k observations with full hedonic characteristics, we find strong evidence that energy-efficient rental units are rented at a premium. A survival hazard model is then used to study the impact of the ratings on time-on-market. It is found that energy-efficient rental properties tend to lease up more quickly than their non-efficient peers. This study provides a robust framework for policy makers and property companies for understanding how energy efficiency and expected utility costs of a rental property affect asking and effective rents.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81912800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael C. Bailey, Ruiqing Cao, Theresa Kuchler, J. Stroebel
We document that the recent house price experiences within an individual’s social network affect her perceptions of the attractiveness of property investments, and through this channel have large effects on her housing market activity. Our data combine anonymized social network information from Facebook with housing transaction data and a survey. We first show that in the survey, individuals whose geographically-distant friends experienced larger recent house price increases consider local property a more attractive investment, with bigger effects for individuals who regularly discuss such investments with their friends. Based on these findings, we introduce a new methodology to document large effects of housing market expectations on individual housing investment decisions and aggregate housing market outcomes. Our approach exploits plausibly-exogenous variation in the recent house price experiences of individuals’ geographically-distant friends as shifters of those individuals’ local housing market expectations. Individuals whose friends experienced a 5 percentage points larger house price increase over the previous 24 months (i) are 3.1 percentage points more likely to transition from renting to owning over a two-year period, (ii) buy a 1.7 percent larger house, (iii) pay 3.3 percent more for a given house, and (iv) make a 7% larger downpayment. Similarly, when homeowners’ friends experience less positive house price changes, these homeowners are more likely to become renters, and more likely to sell their property at a lower price. We also find that when individuals observe a higher dispersion of house price experiences across their friends, this has a negative effect on their housing investments. Finally, we show that these individual-level responses aggregate up to affect county-level house prices and trading volume. Our findings suggest that the house price experiences of geographically-distant friends might provide a valid instrument for local house price growth.
{"title":"Social Networks and Housing Markets","authors":"Michael C. Bailey, Ruiqing Cao, Theresa Kuchler, J. Stroebel","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2753881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2753881","url":null,"abstract":"We document that the recent house price experiences within an individual’s social network affect her perceptions of the attractiveness of property investments, and through this channel have large effects on her housing market activity. Our data combine anonymized social network information from Facebook with housing transaction data and a survey. We first show that in the survey, individuals whose geographically-distant friends experienced larger recent house price increases consider local property a more attractive investment, with bigger effects for individuals who regularly discuss such investments with their friends. Based on these findings, we introduce a new methodology to document large effects of housing market expectations on individual housing investment decisions and aggregate housing market outcomes. Our approach exploits plausibly-exogenous variation in the recent house price experiences of individuals’ geographically-distant friends as shifters of those individuals’ local housing market expectations. Individuals whose friends experienced a 5 percentage points larger house price increase over the previous 24 months (i) are 3.1 percentage points more likely to transition from renting to owning over a two-year period, (ii) buy a 1.7 percent larger house, (iii) pay 3.3 percent more for a given house, and (iv) make a 7% larger downpayment. Similarly, when homeowners’ friends experience less positive house price changes, these homeowners are more likely to become renters, and more likely to sell their property at a lower price. We also find that when individuals observe a higher dispersion of house price experiences across their friends, this has a negative effect on their housing investments. Finally, we show that these individual-level responses aggregate up to affect county-level house prices and trading volume. Our findings suggest that the house price experiences of geographically-distant friends might provide a valid instrument for local house price growth.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77238549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of historic amenities on residential housing prices in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. Our study is directed towards identifying the spatial variation of amenity values for churches, palaces, lithic (stone) architecture and other historic amenities via the housing market, making use of both global and local spatial hedonic models.Our empirical evidence reveals that different types of historic and landmark amenities provide different housing premiums. While having a local non-landmark church within 100 meters increases housing prices by approximately 4.2%, higher concentrations of non-landmark churches within 1000 meters yield negative effects in the order of 0.1% of prices with landmark churches having a greater negative impact around 3.4%. In contrast, higher concentration of both landmark and non-landmark lithic structures positively influence housing prices in the order of 2.9% and 0.7% respectively.Global estimates indicate a negative effect of protected zones, however this significance is lost when accounting for heterogeneity within these areas. We see that the designation of historic zones may counteract negative effects on property values of nearby neglected buildings in historic neighborhoods by setting additional regulations ensuring that dilapidated buildings do not damage the city’s beauty or erode its historic heritage.Further, our results from a geographically weighted regression specification indicate the presence of spatial non-stationarity in the effects of different historic amenities across the city of Lisbon with variation between historic and more modern areas.
{"title":"The Effects of Cultural Heritage on Residential Property Values: Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal","authors":"Sofia F. Franco, Jacob L. Macdonald","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2776207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2776207","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of historic amenities on residential housing prices in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. Our study is directed towards identifying the spatial variation of amenity values for churches, palaces, lithic (stone) architecture and other historic amenities via the housing market, making use of both global and local spatial hedonic models.Our empirical evidence reveals that different types of historic and landmark amenities provide different housing premiums. While having a local non-landmark church within 100 meters increases housing prices by approximately 4.2%, higher concentrations of non-landmark churches within 1000 meters yield negative effects in the order of 0.1% of prices with landmark churches having a greater negative impact around 3.4%. In contrast, higher concentration of both landmark and non-landmark lithic structures positively influence housing prices in the order of 2.9% and 0.7% respectively.Global estimates indicate a negative effect of protected zones, however this significance is lost when accounting for heterogeneity within these areas. We see that the designation of historic zones may counteract negative effects on property values of nearby neglected buildings in historic neighborhoods by setting additional regulations ensuring that dilapidated buildings do not damage the city’s beauty or erode its historic heritage.Further, our results from a geographically weighted regression specification indicate the presence of spatial non-stationarity in the effects of different historic amenities across the city of Lisbon with variation between historic and more modern areas.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83011767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Issues of housing in India are synonymous with ignorance of housing in active government involvement at the policy and program formulation levels. They are also due to the problems that unplanned urbanization, income disparity, poverty, illiteracy, and unemployment brought. These issues extenuated the housing problem, causing a housing shortage of 51 million in 2011. Though India has a long history of establishing policies, programs, and institutions to cater to housing, without allocating adequate resources, their impact in ameliorating the shortage has been marginal. This paper argues that to address the housing shortage in India, there is desperate need to prepare a framework for housing by (i) including housing as a constitutional right; (ii) resolving issues of unclear land titles and ensuing claims; (iii) building adequate financial resources for affordable housing programs; (iv) building responsive instruments to facilitate the affordability of housing by all income segments; and (v) overcoming market segmentation, which is currently catering to the housing needs of creditworthy clients and is overlooking the growing demand from middle- and lower-income segments. India needs to leverage its extensive architecture of agencies, policies, and market frameworks for housing by equipping them with adequate resources so they can deliver housing for all.
{"title":"Housing Markets and Housing Policies in India","authors":"P. Tiwari, Jyoti M. Rao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2767342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2767342","url":null,"abstract":"Issues of housing in India are synonymous with ignorance of housing in active government involvement at the policy and program formulation levels. They are also due to the problems that unplanned urbanization, income disparity, poverty, illiteracy, and unemployment brought. These issues extenuated the housing problem, causing a housing shortage of 51 million in 2011. Though India has a long history of establishing policies, programs, and institutions to cater to housing, without allocating adequate resources, their impact in ameliorating the shortage has been marginal. This paper argues that to address the housing shortage in India, there is desperate need to prepare a framework for housing by (i) including housing as a constitutional right; (ii) resolving issues of unclear land titles and ensuing claims; (iii) building adequate financial resources for affordable housing programs; (iv) building responsive instruments to facilitate the affordability of housing by all income segments; and (v) overcoming market segmentation, which is currently catering to the housing needs of creditworthy clients and is overlooking the growing demand from middle- and lower-income segments. India needs to leverage its extensive architecture of agencies, policies, and market frameworks for housing by equipping them with adequate resources so they can deliver housing for all.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"360 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76426634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As the U.S. emerges from the Great Recession, there is concern about slowing rates of new household formation and declining interest in homeownership, especially among younger households. Potential reasons that have been posited include tight mortgage credit and housing supply, changing preferences over tenure in the wake of the foreclosure crisis, and weak labor markets for young workers. In this paper, we examine how individual housing choices, and the stated motivations for these choices, reflect local housing affordability and individual financial circumstances, focusing particularly on young households. The analysis makes use of new individual-level data from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). We find that housing affordability is correlated with county-level tenure rates and individual-level probability of homeownership for households with heads under age 40. However, it appears that young households' perceived barriers to homeownership are more closely related to individual financial circumstances than local housing market conditions.
{"title":"What are the Perceived Barriers to Homeownership for Young Adults?","authors":"Jeff Larrimore, J. Schuetz, Samuel Dodini","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2016.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.021","url":null,"abstract":"As the U.S. emerges from the Great Recession, there is concern about slowing rates of new household formation and declining interest in homeownership, especially among younger households. Potential reasons that have been posited include tight mortgage credit and housing supply, changing preferences over tenure in the wake of the foreclosure crisis, and weak labor markets for young workers. In this paper, we examine how individual housing choices, and the stated motivations for these choices, reflect local housing affordability and individual financial circumstances, focusing particularly on young households. The analysis makes use of new individual-level data from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). We find that housing affordability is correlated with county-level tenure rates and individual-level probability of homeownership for households with heads under age 40. However, it appears that young households' perceived barriers to homeownership are more closely related to individual financial circumstances than local housing market conditions.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"188 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81886574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage- backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the implied turnover and rate response measures are in fact significantly related to macroeconomic measures such as consumption growth, the unemployment rate, housing values, credit availability, and market uncertainty. Implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage- backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing Programs.
{"title":"Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities","authors":"Mikhail Chernov, Brett Dunn, F. Longstaff","doi":"10.1093/RFS/HHX140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/RFS/HHX140","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage- backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the implied turnover and rate response measures are in fact significantly related to macroeconomic measures such as consumption growth, the unemployment rate, housing values, credit availability, and market uncertainty. Implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage- backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing Programs.","PeriodicalId":12014,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82441331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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