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Private Versus Shared, Automated Electric Vehicles for U.S. Personal Mobility: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Grid Integration and Cost Impacts 美国个人出行的私人与共享、自动电动汽车:能源使用、温室气体排放、电网整合和成本影响
Pub Date : 2021-02-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575130
C. Sheppard, A. Jenn, J. Greenblatt, Gordon S Bauer, B. Gerke
Transportation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption globally. While the convergence of shared mobility, vehicle automation, and electrification has the potential to drastically reduce transportation impacts, it requires careful integration with rapidly evolving electricity systems. Here, we examine these interactions using a U.S.-wide simulation framework encompassing private electric vehicles (EVs), shared automated EVs (SAEVs), charging infrastructure, controlled EV charging, and a grid economic dispatch model to simulate personal mobility exclusively using EVs. We find that private EVs with uncontrolled charging would reduce GHG emissions by 46% compared to gasoline vehicles. Private EVs with fleetwide controlled charging would achieve a 49% reduction in emissions from baseline and reduce peak charging demand by 53% from the uncontrolled scenario. We also find that an SAEV fleet 9% the size of today's active vehicle fleet can satisfy trip demand with only 2.6 million chargers (0.2 per EV). Such an SAEV fleet would achieve a 70% reduction in GHG emissions at 41% of the lifecycle cost as a private EV fleet with controlled charging. The emissions and cost advantage of SAEVs is primarily due to reduced vehicle manufacturing compared with private EVs.
交通运输是全球温室气体排放和能源消耗增长最快的来源。虽然共享出行、车辆自动化和电气化的融合有可能大幅减少交通影响,但它需要与快速发展的电力系统进行仔细整合。在这里,我们使用美国范围内的模拟框架来研究这些相互作用,包括私人电动汽车(EV),共享自动电动汽车(saev),充电基础设施,受控电动汽车充电,以及电网经济调度模型,以模拟纯电动汽车的个人移动性。我们发现,与汽油车相比,不受控制充电的私人电动汽车将减少46%的温室气体排放。在不受控制的情况下,拥有全车队控制充电的私人电动汽车将实现基线排放量减少49%,峰值充电需求减少53%。我们还发现,只有260万个充电器(每辆电动汽车0.2个)就能满足出行需求。这样的SAEV车队将减少70%的温室气体排放,而与控制充电的私人电动汽车车队相比,其生命周期成本仅为41%。saev的排放和成本优势主要是由于与私人电动汽车相比,汽车制造减少了。
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引用次数: 15
Resolving The Sustainable Finance Conundrum: Activist Policies And Financial Technology 解决可持续金融难题:积极政策和金融技术
Pub Date : 2021-01-25 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3772959
E. Avgouleas
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its devastating impact on public health and social and economic systems has induced citizens, central banks, and governments to rethink sustainable finance. Still, climate change is not the only challenge human societies face today. Racial, gender, and income inequality and the fate of liberal democracy are as important and should feature prominently in public debate and policy-makers’ agendas. Achieving these policy objectives as encapsulated in the United Nations (UN) Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs), requires substantial investment. The growing field of sustainable finance has sought to provide that funding, but the current funding gap remains enormous. The funding gap is the product of three formidable obstacles: (a) legal restrictions, (b) lack of a reliable mechanism for the monitoring and verification of the actual sustainability impact of green investments and policies, and (c) finance models that narrowly measure investment risk and return. These obstacles act like a dam with regards to sustainable finance flows and the dam may only be breached if public policy takes a stronger role in actively encouraging sustainable investment through tax and regulatory incentives. To implement that policy an accord among G-20 countries, from which most private investment flows originate, is required. A tax that would treat capital flows that do not have a direct or indirect sustainability impact, for example, investments in the carbon fuel industry, as a negative externality would constitute a radical departure from the more benign policies tried so far such as reporting/disclosure and pricing of carbon emissions. To be effective it would require international consensus. While calls for a similar levy were also raised in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and went nowhere, the result of the recent US election in combination with the devastating impact of the pandemic may prove the watershed moment. Moreover, cutting-edge financial technology encompassing artificial intelligence, machine learning and blockchain technology can be critical in terms of boosting sustainable finance and creating a scientifically accurate environment for the allocation of the proposed here green taxes and subsidies among investment portfolios. With the advent of autonomous finance gathering momentum there has never been a better time for such a shift in the mechanics of investing.
2019冠状病毒病大流行的爆发及其对公共卫生和社会经济系统的破坏性影响促使公民、中央银行和政府重新思考可持续金融。然而,气候变化并不是当今人类社会面临的唯一挑战。种族、性别和收入不平等以及自由民主的命运同样重要,应该在公共辩论和政策制定者的议程中占据突出地位。要实现联合国可持续发展目标(sdg)中的这些政策目标,需要大量投资。不断发展的可持续金融领域试图提供这种资金,但目前的资金缺口仍然巨大。资金缺口是三个巨大障碍的产物:(a)法律限制;(b)缺乏可靠的机制来监测和验证绿色投资和政策的实际可持续性影响;(c)狭隘地衡量投资风险和回报的融资模式。这些障碍在可持续资金流动方面就像一座大坝,只有公共政策通过税收和监管激励措施在积极鼓励可持续投资方面发挥更大作用,这座大坝才有可能被冲破。要实施这一政策,需要在20国集团(g20)成员国之间达成一项协议,因为大多数私人投资都来自20国集团。如果将对可持续性没有直接或间接影响的资本流动(例如,对碳燃料行业的投资)视为负外部性,将彻底背离迄今为止尝试过的较为温和的政策,如报告/披露和碳排放定价。要想有效,就需要国际共识。尽管在全球金融危机之后也有人呼吁征收类似的税,但没有取得任何进展,但最近美国大选的结果,加上疫情的破坏性影响,可能成为一个分水岭。此外,包括人工智能,机器学习和区块链技术在内的尖端金融技术对于促进可持续金融以及为在投资组合中分配拟议的绿色税收和补贴创造科学准确的环境至关重要。随着自主金融的出现势头日益增强,现在是投资机制发生这种转变的最佳时机。
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引用次数: 5
Niger - Land, Climate, Energy, Agriculture and Development: A Study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security 尼日尔:土地、气候、能源、农业与发展:苏丹-萨赫勒地区发展、就业和粮食安全倡议研究
Pub Date : 2021-01-19 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.308806
R. Adamou, B. Ibrahim, A. Bonkaney, A. Seyni, M. Idrissa
The Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world. Located in the central part, Niger is facing many complex and interconnected challenges which strongly hinder the achievement of the key sustainable development goals (SDGs). The high population growth rate (3.8% per year), weak infrastructure capacity, shortage of essential resources (including water, energy, food) coupled with the adverse impacts of variability and climate change threaten the population and reduce the country’s economic growth efforts. With more than 77% of landmass area receiving less than 150 mm of precipitation yearly, and about 80% of the population depending on rainfed agriculture, water scarcity and dryness constitute serious constraints for the agriculture and livestock sectors. In addition, the unequal distribution of agricultural land and livestock worsens the poverty incidence among households, which is characterized by a GINI coefficient of 0.46 and 0.68 for land and livestock respectively. Access to drinking water remains very poor with high disparities between urban (64%) and rural areas (48%). Water sanitation amounting to only 2% in rural and 38% in urban areas, respectively, also remains a great issue. Elsewhere, several drought and flood episodes have negatively impacted agricultural productivity, causing recurrent famines and livestock losses. The situation is exacerbated by the impacts of land degradation, the advancement of desertification and also by climate change and variability threats, which are projected to increase in magnitude, intensity, duration and number over the country under all climate change scenarios. The country’s high potential of renewable and non-renewable groundwater resources can be used for residential, agricultural and industrial purposes to overcome negative climate change impacts. Regarding the energy sector, the country is currently in an undesirable state, with very limited modern energy services (2% of the population), low electricity access (average rate of 18%, with around 10% in rural areas) and high dependency on traditional biomass (77% of primary energy consumption). However, the country is fortunate to have a tremendous amount of energy resources, including fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) and renewables (solar, hydropower, and wind), that can be used to overcome many of the observed challenges and thereby contribute significantly in the achievement of various SDGs, including those related to affordable and clean energy, no poverty, and zero hunger. Indeed, in addition to resources for electricity production, Niger has a large surface water potential in the Niger River, with an average discharge of 6000 m3/s and length of about 550 km, which can be mobilized for irrigation to enable food security. Therefore, socioeconomic development requires an integrated approach that brings all the key sectors into a common framework in order to solve the aforementioned challenges. Hence, in key development
萨赫勒地区是世界上最易受气候变化影响的地区之一。尼日尔位于中部,面临着许多复杂且相互关联的挑战,这些挑战严重阻碍了关键可持续发展目标的实现。高人口增长率(每年3.8%)、基础设施能力薄弱、基本资源(包括水、能源、食物)短缺,加上可变性和气候变化的不利影响,威胁着人口,降低了该国的经济增长努力。超过77%的陆地面积年降水量低于150毫米,约80%的人口依赖雨养农业,水资源短缺和干旱对农业和畜牧业构成严重制约。此外,农地和牲畜分配不均加剧了农户的贫困发生率,土地和牲畜的基尼系数分别为0.46和0.68。获得饮用水的情况仍然很差,城市(64%)和农村(48%)之间的差距很大。水卫生设施在农村和城市地区分别仅占2%和38%,这仍然是一个大问题。在其他地方,几次干旱和洪水对农业生产力产生了负面影响,造成经常性饥荒和牲畜损失。土地退化的影响、沙漠化的进展以及气候变化和变率的威胁加剧了这种情况,预计在所有气候变化情景下,这些威胁在规模、强度、持续时间和数量上都将增加。该国可再生和不可再生地下水资源的巨大潜力可用于住宅、农业和工业目的,以克服气候变化的负面影响。关于能源部门,该国目前处于不受欢迎的状态,现代能源服务非常有限(占人口的2%),电力获取率低(平均为18%,农村地区约为10%),高度依赖传统生物质(占一次能源消耗的77%)。然而,该国幸运地拥有大量的能源资源,包括化石燃料(石油、煤炭和天然气)和可再生能源(太阳能、水电和风能),可以用来克服许多观察到的挑战,从而为实现各种可持续发展目标做出重大贡献,包括与负担得起的清洁能源、无贫困和零饥饿有关的目标。事实上,除了发电资源外,尼日尔河的地表水潜力巨大,平均流量为6000立方米/秒,长度约550公里,可用于灌溉,以保障粮食安全。因此,社会经济发展需要采取综合办法,将所有关键部门纳入一个共同框架,以解决上述挑战。因此,在关键发展领域,政府、非政府组织以及技术和金融合作伙伴发起并实施了若干发展政策和战略,以减少不平等和贫困,改善该国的生计。
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引用次数: 13
Where is Pollution Moving? Environmental Markets and Environmental Justice 污染在向哪里移动?环境市场与环境正义
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20211004
Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker
Do US air pollution offset markets disproportionately relocate pollution to or from low-income or minority communities? Concerns about an equal distribution of environmental quality across communities--environmental justice--have growing policy influence. We relate prices and quantities of offset transactions to the demographics of the communities surrounding polluting plants. We find little association of offset prices or offset-induced movements in pollution with the share of a community that is Black or Hispanic or with mean household income. This analysis of 12 prominent offset markets suggests that they do not substantially increase or decrease the equity of environmental outcomes.
美国的空气污染抵消市场是否不成比例地将污染转移到或从低收入或少数民族社区?对社区间环境质量公平分配的关注——环境正义——对政策的影响越来越大。我们将抵消交易的价格和数量与污染工厂周围社区的人口统计数据联系起来。我们发现补偿价格或补偿引起的污染运动与黑人或西班牙裔社区的份额或平均家庭收入之间几乎没有关联。对12个主要抵消市场的分析表明,它们并没有大幅增加或减少环境结果的公平性。
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引用次数: 8
The Effect Consumers' Consciousness, Social and Personality Factors on Purchase Intention for Organic Cosmetic in Pakistan 巴基斯坦消费者意识、社会及个性因素对有机化妆品购买意愿的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756979
Rafia Khan, D. Siddiqui
Women always have an inherent love for beauty. Cosmetics have become a routine tool to make women more presentable. Organic cosmetics are produced without the usage of some type of chemical substance. They bear no toxins or impurities to causes threats to public wellbeing and affect the quality of the environment. This research aims at exploring market acceptance and their views about organic cosmetic goods, which will in turn disclose the rising potential of the market and pattern of organic consumerism proposed field of inquiry. Using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the effects of various factors on consumer purchase intention of organic Cosmetic products in Pakistan. These factors included consumer Consciousness about Appearance, Health, Environmental, Price, and Ecological Awareness, along with Subjective Norms, and personal factors like Openness to Experience, and Knowledge of Cosmetic Organic. Primary data is obtained electronically Survey via Social Media using a close-ended questionnaire. The study is conducted in different cities of Pakistan and samples of 300 respondents are considered. The data is analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation modeling. The results suggested that Ecological Awareness and Openness to Experience seems to have a significant positive effect on purchase intentions. Whereas Appearance Consciousness seems to be negatively affecting purchase intention. Research Enable organic marketers to study their marketing campaigns and Researchers to identify holes for potential in-depth research.
女人天生爱美。化妆品已经成为一种常规工具,使女性更有风度。有机化妆品是在不使用某种化学物质的情况下生产的。不含危害公众健康、影响环境质量的毒素和杂质。本研究旨在探讨市场对有机化妆品的接受程度和他们对有机化妆品的看法,从而揭示市场的上升潜力和有机消费主义模式提出的研究领域。运用计划行为理论(TPB)研究巴基斯坦有机化妆品消费者购买意愿的影响因素。这些因素包括消费者对外观、健康、环境、价格和生态意识的意识,以及主观规范,以及个人因素,如对经验的开放程度和对有机化妆品的了解。主要数据以电子方式获得,通过社交媒体使用封闭式问卷调查。该研究在巴基斯坦的不同城市进行,并考虑了300名受访者的样本。采用验证性因子分析和结构化方程模型对数据进行分析。结果表明,生态意识和体验开放性对购买意愿有显著的正向影响。而外表意识似乎对购买意愿有负向影响。研究使有机营销人员能够研究他们的营销活动,研究人员能够发现潜在的深入研究的漏洞。
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引用次数: 1
When Flagships Falter: How Finland and Waterloo Adapted to Anchor Firm Collapse 当旗舰店动摇:芬兰和滑铁卢如何适应锚公司的崩溃
Pub Date : 2020-12-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3744255
Darius Ornston
Why are some communities more resilient to flagship decline than others? This paper compares how Finland and Waterloo, Ontario adapted to the failure of their flagship, high-technology enterprises, Nokia and Research in Motion (RIM). While both regions exhibited a degree of resilience, Nokia’s decline proved more disruptive, causing technology employment to decline by 10% between 2008 and 2016. By contrast, technology employment in Waterloo was roughly stable as RIM shrank and, by some measures, even increased. The Waterloo’s region’s resilience is particularly striking given that RIM employed a higher share of the local labor force. After eliminating several alternative explanations, the paper identifies a tradeoff in the way communities embed flagship firms. In Finland, Nokia’s ties to policymakers and local industry ensured that the benefits of its growth were widely distributed, but this increased regional vulnerability to the firm’s decline. By contrast, RIM’s relatively aloof position within the Waterloo ecosystem limited positive spillovers as it grew, but this permitted the construction of an independent ecosystem which could absorb the resources released by RIM’s collapse. In Finland, this creative reallocation of resources was more painful and protracted.
为什么有些社区比其他社区更能适应旗舰衰退?本文比较了芬兰和滑铁卢,安大略省如何适应他们的旗舰,高科技企业,诺基亚和RIM的失败。虽然这两个地区都表现出一定程度的弹性,但事实证明,诺基亚的衰落更具破坏性,导致2008年至2016年期间技术就业人数下降了10%。相比之下,在RIM萎缩的同时,滑铁卢的技术就业岗位基本保持稳定,从某些方面来看,甚至有所增加。考虑到RIM在当地劳动力中所占的比例更高,滑铁卢地区的恢复力尤其引人注目。在排除了几种可能的解释后,本文确定了社区嵌入旗舰公司的方式的权衡。在芬兰,诺基亚与政策制定者和当地产业的关系确保了其增长的好处被广泛分配,但这也增加了该地区对该公司衰落的脆弱性。相比之下,RIM在滑铁卢生态系统中相对孤立的地位限制了其成长过程中的积极溢出效应,但这使得RIM能够构建一个独立的生态系统,吸收RIM崩溃所释放的资源。在芬兰,这种创造性的资源重新分配更加痛苦和漫长。
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引用次数: 0
Trade and FDI Thresholds of CO 2 emissions for a Green Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲绿色经济中二氧化碳排放的贸易和FDI阈值
Pub Date : 2020-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3713091
S. Asongu, N. Odhiambo
PurposeThis study aims to focus on assessing how improving openness influences carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design/methodology/approachThis study focusses on 49 countries in SSA for the period 2000–2018 divided into: 44 countries in SSA for the period 2000–2012; and 49 countries for the period 2006–2018. Openness is measured in terms of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The empirical evidence is based on the generalised method of moments.FindingsThe following main findings are established. First, enhancing trade openness has a net positive impact on CO2 emissions, while increasing FDI has a net negative impact. Second, the relationship between CO2 emissions and trade is a Kuznets shape, while the nexus between CO2 emissions and FDI inflows is a U-shape. Third, a minimum trade openness (imports plus exports) threshold of 100 (% of gross domestic product (GDP)) and 200 (% of GDP) is beneficial in promoting a green economy for the first and second samples, respectively. Fourth, FDI is beneficial for the green economy below critical masses of 28.571 of net FDI inflows (% of GDP) and 33.333 of net FDI inflows (% of GDP) for first and second samples, respectively. It follows from findings that while FDI can be effectively managed to reduce CO2 emissions, this may not be the case with trade openness because the corresponding thresholds for trade openness are closer to the maximum limit.Originality/valueThis study complements the extant literature by providing critical masses of trade and FDI that are relevant in promoting the green economy in SSA.
本研究旨在评估开放程度的提高如何影响撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的二氧化碳(CO2)排放。设计/方法/方法本研究关注2000-2018年期间SSA的49个国家,分为:2000-2012年期间SSA的44个国家;2006-2018年期间为49个国家。开放程度是以贸易和外国直接投资(FDI)流入来衡量的。经验证据是基于广义矩量法。以下主要发现是确定的。首先,提高贸易开放对二氧化碳排放具有净正影响,而增加外国直接投资则具有净负影响。其次,二氧化碳排放与贸易之间的关系呈库兹涅茨型,而二氧化碳排放与FDI流入之间的关系呈u型。第三,对于第一个和第二个样本而言,最低贸易开放(进口加出口)门槛分别为国内生产总值(GDP)的100%和200%,有利于促进绿色经济。第四,在第一个和第二个样本的FDI净流入(占GDP的百分比)和FDI净流入(占GDP的百分比)分别低于临界质量的28.571和33.333以下,FDI对绿色经济是有益的。研究结果表明,虽然FDI可以有效管理以减少二氧化碳排放,但贸易开放可能并非如此,因为贸易开放的相应阈值更接近最大值。原创性/价值本研究补充了现有文献,提供了大量与促进SSA绿色经济相关的贸易和外国直接投资。
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引用次数: 21
The Geography of Jobs and the Gender Wage Gap 工作的地理位置和性别工资差距
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3695052
Sitian Liu, Yichen Su
Prior studies show that women are more willing to accept lower wages for shorter commutes than men. We show that gender differences in commuting preferences lead to a gender wage gap only if there is a wage penalty for shortening commutes, determined by the geography of jobs. We demonstrate this by showing that the commuting and wage gaps are considerably smaller among workers living near city centers, especially for occupations with a high geographic concentration of high-wage jobs. We highlight the geography of jobs as a key force that amplifies the impact of commuting preferences on the gender wage gap.
先前的研究表明,女性比男性更愿意接受通勤时间较短的低工资。我们表明,通勤偏好的性别差异只会导致性别工资差距,如果缩短通勤时间会受到工资惩罚,这是由工作的地理位置决定的。我们通过显示居住在市中心附近的工人的通勤和工资差距要小得多来证明这一点,特别是对于高薪工作在地理上高度集中的职业。我们强调,工作的地理位置是放大通勤偏好对性别工资差距影响的关键因素。
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引用次数: 7
Street Network Models and Indicators for Every Urban Area in the World 世界各城市的街道网络模型和指标
Pub Date : 2020-09-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3695331
G. Boeing
Cities worldwide exhibit a variety of street network patterns and configurations that shape human mobility, equity, health, and livelihoods. This study models and analyzes the street networks of every urban area in the world, using boundaries derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Street network data are acquired and modeled from OpenStreetMap with the open‐source OSMnx software. In total, this study models over 160 million OpenStreetMap street network nodes and over 320 million edges across 8,914 urban areas in 178 countries, and attaches elevation and grade data. This article presents the study’s reproducible computational workflow, introduces two new open data repositories of ready‐to‐use global street network models and calculated indicators, and discusses summary findings on street network form worldwide. It makes four contributions. First, it reports the methodological advances of this open‐source workflow. Second, it produces an open data repository containing street network models for each urban area. Third, it analyzes these models to produce an open data repository containing street network form indicators for each urban area. No such global urban street network indicator data set has previously existed. Fourth, it presents a summary analysis of urban street network form, reporting the first such worldwide results in the literature.
世界各地的城市呈现出各种各样的街道网络模式和配置,这些模式和配置影响着人类的流动性、公平性、健康和生计。本研究利用全球人类住区层的边界,对世界上每个城市的街道网络进行建模和分析。街道网络数据是用开源的OSMnx软件从OpenStreetMap获取和建模的。该研究总共对178个国家的8,914个城市地区的1.6亿个OpenStreetMap街道网络节点和3.2亿个边缘进行了建模,并附加了高程和坡度数据。本文介绍了该研究的可重复计算工作流程,介绍了两个新的开放数据库,即现成的全球街道网络模型和计算指标,并讨论了全球街道网络形式的总结发现。它有四个贡献。首先,它报告了这个开源工作流程在方法论上的进步。其次,它生成一个包含每个城市区域的街道网络模型的开放数据存储库。第三,对这些模型进行分析,生成包含每个城区街道网络形态指标的开放数据存储库。这样的全球城市街道网指标数据集以前是不存在的。第四,它对城市街道网络形式进行了总结分析,报告了文献中第一次这样的全球结果。
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引用次数: 42
Prevent or Report? Managing Near Misses for Safer Operations 预防还是举报?管理未遂事故,提高操作安全性
Pub Date : 2020-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3259308
Nitin Bakshi, H. Peura
Problem Definition: Firms can reduce the risk of rare disasters by accounting for more frequent near misses: precursor events that could have escalated to a disaster but did not. Investigating a near miss reveals its root cause, allowing the firm to improve process safety and reduce disaster risk. A managing firm, however, usually does not directly observe the occurrence of a near miss but instead relies on the report of an agent (an employee or contractor) who is also responsible for precautionary measures that prevent such incidents. This paper explains why near-miss reporting may not take place in such a decentralized setting. Academic/practical relevance: Literature and practitioners have acknowledged the crucial role of near-miss reports in improving process safety. Nevertheless, even at sophisticated and experienced organizations, disaster inquiries invariably uncover a history of unreported or ignored near misses preceding an accident. We provide an explanation for this persistent phenomenon based on rational economic incentives. Methodology: We examine the firm’s problem through a dynamic principal-agent model that captures the agent’s potential for under-reporting near misses along with moral hazard related to their precautionary effort. Results: We find that the firm may fail to capitalize on near miss information because of conflicting incentives. For instance, the agent may be unwilling to report near misses because the resulting safety improvements hurt them financially. This happens because safety improvements replace the need for the agent’s precautionary effort, thereby lowering moral hazard and allowing the firm to extract more rent from the agent. However, even when the agent is willing to report near misses, we find that the firm may choose not to record them, opting instead to create stronger incentives for precaution. In both scenarios, the firm forgoes opportunities for process-safety improvement and instead focuses on existing precautionary measures. Managerial implications: Our findings highlight the challenges in providing incentives for both reporting and precautionary measures that can result in a failure to leverage near miss information. We examine remedies that alleviate these issues and increase reporting in both voluntary and mandatory reporting environments.
问题定义:企业可以通过考虑更频繁的未遂事件来降低罕见灾害的风险:未遂事件是指可能升级为灾难但没有升级的前兆事件。调查一次未遂事故可以揭示其根本原因,使公司能够提高过程安全性并降低灾难风险。然而,管理公司通常不直接观察“未遂事故”的发生,而是依赖代理(雇员或承包商)的报告,代理也负责采取预防措施,防止此类事件的发生。本文解释了为什么在这样一个分散的环境中不可能发生未遂报告。学术/实践相关性:文献和实践者已经认识到在改进过程安全中,未遂报告的关键作用。然而,即使在经验丰富的老练组织中,灾难调查也总是会发现事故发生前未报告或被忽视的未遂事件的历史。本文从理性经济激励的角度对这一现象进行了解释。方法:我们通过一个动态的委托-代理模型来研究公司的问题,该模型捕捉了代理少报未遂事故的可能性,以及与他们的预防努力相关的道德风险。结果:我们发现,由于相互冲突的激励,公司可能无法利用差一点的信息。例如,代理商可能不愿意报告侥幸脱险,因为由此带来的安全改进会损害他们的经济利益。这是因为安全改进取代了对代理人预防努力的需要,从而降低了道德风险,并允许公司从代理人那里榨取更多的租金。然而,即使代理人愿意报告未遂事件,我们发现公司也可能选择不记录它们,而是选择为预防措施创造更强的激励。在这两种情况下,公司都放弃了过程安全改进的机会,而是专注于现有的预防措施。管理意义:我们的发现强调了在为报告和预防措施提供激励方面的挑战,这些措施可能导致未能利用接近遗漏的信息。我们将研究缓解这些问题的补救措施,并在自愿和强制性报告环境中增加报告。
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GeographyRN: Economic Geography (Topic)
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