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Stock portfolio optimization in fireworks algorithm using risk value and comparison with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) 基于风险值的烟花算法股票组合优化及其与粒子群算法的比较
Pub Date : 2021-11-20 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.35.9
Ali Asghar Shahriari, Saeed Daei- Karimzadeh, R. Behmanesh
The nature of business and investment activities is such that earning a return requires risk tolerance. Choosing a stock portfolio is a difficult and difficult task that the investor sees in the face of the many and varied choices that she must choose as one of the best methods. The present study deals with the problem of stock portfolio optimization according to the Value at Risk based intelligent fireworks algorithm and compares it with Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm with the historical simulation method using MATLAB software. The parameters of meta-heuristic algorithms were adjusted by Taguchi method using MINITAB software. Not suspended, used. For reliability of the study, generalized Dickey-Fuller test and PhillipsProne test were used. To evaluate the accuracy of the Conditional Value at Risk model, the kupiec proportion of failure test, Christoffersen independence test and Conditional coverage test are used. A comparison was also made between the models by Lopez test. The execution time of the Particle Swarm Optimization was less than that of the fireworks algorithm at all three levels of confidence, but the convergence speed of the fireworks algorithm was faster than that of the Particle Swarm Optimization at all levels. Findings showed that the Value at Risk model using the fireworks algorithm, despite the longer execution time due to better convergence speed and higher rank of Lopez test has a more appropriate validity for stock portfolio optimization.
商业和投资活动的性质决定了获得回报需要风险承受能力。选择一个股票投资组合是一个困难和困难的任务,投资者看到面对许多不同的选择,她必须选择最好的方法之一。本文研究了基于风险值的智能烟花算法的股票投资组合优化问题,并利用MATLAB软件将其与粒子群优化算法进行了历史仿真比较。采用MINITAB软件对元启发式算法参数进行田口法调整。不是暂停,是使用。为提高研究的信度,采用了广义Dickey-Fuller检验和PhillipsProne检验。为了评估条件风险值模型的准确性,使用了失效比例测试、Christoffersen独立性测试和条件覆盖率测试。采用Lopez检验对模型进行了比较。在所有三个置信度水平上,粒子群算法的执行时间都小于烟花算法,但烟花算法在所有水平上的收敛速度都快于粒子群算法。研究结果表明,尽管烟花算法的风险值模型由于收敛速度更快,执行时间更长,洛佩兹检验等级更高,但对股票投资组合优化具有更合适的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Presentation the Model for Predicting the Factors Affecting Stock Price Crash Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange 提出了德黑兰证券交易所股价崩盘风险影响因素的预测模型
Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.217
F. Valizadeh, Amir Mohamadzadeh, M. Seighali, M. Torabian
T he purpose of this study is to provide a model for predicting the factors affecting the stock price Crash Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In addition to a comprehensive review of the thematic literature related to the stock price crash risk, in the qualitative section, 12 people through theoretical sampling method, selected among capital market experts and then by collecting the required data by means of document reference and interview tools to extract the factors affecting the risk of stock price crash risk using MAXQDA18 software and to extract the model from the structural equation model and PLS software has been used. Statistical population in the quantitative part, a sample of 100 companies was selected from the companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2009 and 2019. The results show , it is possible to provide a model to predict the factors affecting the stock price crash risk and respectively social responsibility in the first priority, business strategies in the second priority, macroeconomic variables in the third priority, managerial ability in the fourth priority, political communication in the fifth priority, variables Financial in the sixth priority and information asymmetry in the seventh priority affect the stock price crash risk.
本研究的目的是提供一个模型来预测影响德黑兰证券交易所股价崩盘风险的因素。除了全面回顾了与股价崩盘风险相关的专题文献外,在定性部分,通过理论抽样的方法,在资本市场专家中选出12人,然后通过文献参考和访谈等工具收集所需的数据,利用MAXQDA18软件提取股价崩盘风险的影响因素,并从结构方程模型和PLS软件中提取模型。统计人口在定量部分,从2009年至2019年在德黑兰证券交易所上市的公司中选取100家公司作为样本。结果表明,可以提供一个模型来预测影响股价崩盘风险的因素,其中社会责任为第一优先,企业战略为第二优先,宏观经济变量为第三优先,管理能力为第四优先,政治沟通为第五优先,财务变量为第六优先,信息不对称为第七优先。
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引用次数: 1
Computation of Financial Inclusion Composite Index in Iran 伊朗金融包容性综合指数的计算
Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.193
Hamed Hamedinia, Behrang Asadi
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引用次数: 0
Managerial confidence and Economic sentiments Index design for listed company's managers of Tehran Stock Exchange 德黑兰证券交易所上市公司经理人信心与经济情绪指数设计
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.245
S. J. Tabatabaei
The current financial literature examines business cycles based on a retrospective approach and emphasizes the rational assumption of humans in evaluating managerial confidence models. the main purpose of the study is to design an index that describes the collective belief of managers towards the economic sectors and represents the economic sentiments and managerial confidence of managers of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The present study includes qualitative and quantitative steps. With a deep search of library resources and with the method of theme analysis, the basic themes that explain confidence are compiled. Then, according to the Delphi method, these topics were assigned to capital market and academic elites for assessment. During the three-step process, the theoretical consensus on the indicators used in the questionnaire was confirmed. In a quantitative step, the confirmatory factor analysis method was used to evaluate the questionnaire's validity. Tests obtained from factor analysis showed that it is appropriate to describe the variables by the hidden variable. And the factor structure of the questionnaire can be verified. Applying the combined index to describe the company's managers' managerial confidence and economic sentiments listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange gets the necessary competence. In addition, analysts, investors, and regulators can use it to determine the attitude of business towards the future of the economy.
当前的金融文献基于回顾性方法考察商业周期,并强调人类在评估管理信心模型时的理性假设。本研究的主要目的是设计一个指数,描述管理人员对经济部门的集体信念,代表在德黑兰证券交易所上市公司的管理人员的经济情绪和管理信心。本研究包括定性和定量两个步骤。通过对文献资源的深入检索,采用主题分析的方法,编制了解释信心的基本主题。然后,根据德尔菲法,将这些课题分配给资本市场和学术精英进行评估。在三个步骤的过程中,对问卷中使用的指标的理论共识得到了确认。在定量步骤中,采用验证性因子分析法对问卷的效度进行评价。因子分析结果表明,用隐变量来描述变量是合适的。并对问卷的因子结构进行了验证。运用综合指数来描述在德黑兰证券交易所上市的公司经理的管理信心和经济情绪,获得了必要的能力。此外,分析师、投资者和监管机构可以用它来确定企业对未来经济的态度。
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引用次数: 0
Presenting the developed model of Benish by using tunneling phenomena based on artificial neural network technique and particle swarm optimization algorithm to identifying profit manipulating companies 提出了基于人工神经网络技术和粒子群优化算法,利用隧道现象建立的Benish模型来识别操纵利润的公司
Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.139
Farhad Azadi, M. Ghanbari, Babak Jamshidi Navid, Javad Masodi
The purpose of this study is to optimize the Bayesian profit management model with tunneling phenomenon and cumulative particle motion optimization algorithm. The statistical population of the study included companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the number of companies under study, including 196 companies listed during the years 2015 to 2020. The research method is descriptive-correlational and in terms of causal-correlational variables and in terms of purpose and event, it is post-event. In order to analyze the data, regression and artificial neural network and cumulative particle motion optimization algorithm were used. The results of the model analysis showed that all financial ratios had a significant effect on the earnings management prediction of insight and the greatest impact on the prediction of earnings management was on the INE tunneling phenomenon and the least on financial leverage. The results of the estimation of the designed neural networks show that the use of cumulative particle optimization algorithm to predict the Profit management for companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is acceptable .
本研究的目的是利用隧道现象和累积粒子运动优化算法对贝叶斯利润管理模型进行优化。本研究的统计人口包括在德黑兰证券交易所上市的公司和研究的公司数量,其中包括2015年至2020年期间上市的196家公司。研究方法是描述性相关的,就因果相关变量而言是描述性相关的,就目的和事件而言是事后相关的。为了对数据进行分析,采用了回归、人工神经网络和累积粒子运动优化算法。模型分析结果表明,各财务比率对洞察力的盈余管理预测有显著影响,对INE隧道现象的盈余管理预测影响最大,对财务杠杆的影响最小。对所设计的神经网络的估计结果表明,利用累积粒子优化算法对德黑兰证券交易所上市公司的利润管理进行预测是可以接受的。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Investigating of Stock Valuation Discount Models in Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange 德黑兰证券交易所上市公司股票估值贴现模型的比较研究
Pub Date : 2021-06-05 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.113
M. Arabsalehi, Alireza Kamali Dehkordi
Stock investing decisions require information which Obtain through valuation models. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of the Dividend Discount Model, the Discounted Cash Flow Model, the Residual Earnings Model and the Abnormal Earnings Growth Model in explaining the stock price changes of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2012-2018 (Iranian calendar 1391-1397). Target sample consists of 105 companies listed in Tehran stock exchange. Collected data were analyzed using T-test method. The results show that in the Tehran Stock Exchange the intrinsic values estimated by the Dividend Discounted and the discounted cash flow model have the highest correlation with the market value of the stocks. These results also indicate that in the Tehran Stock Exchange These results show that cash dividends and cash flows were used more than any other information as a criterion for buying and selling stocks.
股票投资决策需要通过估值模型获得的信息。因此,本研究的目的是比较股利贴现模型、现金流贴现模型、剩余盈余模型和盈余异常增长模型在解释2012-2018年(伊朗历1391-1397)德黑兰证券交易所上市公司股价变化的准确性。目标样本包括在德黑兰证券交易所上市的105家公司。收集的资料采用t检验方法进行分析。结果表明,在德黑兰证券交易所,股利贴现模型和现金流贴现模型估计的内在价值与股票市值的相关性最高。这些结果还表明,在德黑兰证券交易所,这些结果表明,现金股息和现金流量比任何其他信息更被用作买卖股票的标准。
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引用次数: 0
Survey the Impact of Selected Global Commodity Indexes on Metal Ore Mining Index of Tehran Stock Exchange 调查选定的全球商品指数对德黑兰证券交易所金属矿石开采指数的影响
Pub Date : 2021-05-29 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.85
Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi, M. Botshekan, M. Salimi, Meisam Bagheri Kopaei
Regarding the importance of the stock market and commodity indexes as a predictive index, in this study, the effect of selected global commodity indices on the index of metal ores in the Tehran Stock Exchange has been investigated. Using the monthly state data from April 25 th , 2012 to January 20 th , 2020, the impact of the index of Bloomberg industrial metals, and the index of Nasdaq industrial metals on the index of metal ores extraction in Tehran stock exchange were studied by ARDL method. To investigate the existence of the long-term relationship, a bound testing was used. In order to control the effects of liquidity, consumer’s inflation, producer’s inflation, and the exchange rate in the unofficial market on independent and dependent variables, these variables were used as control variables in the model. The results show that the global commodity indexes of CRB without energy, Bloomberg industrial metals index, and Nasdaq industrial metals index have a positive and meaningful relationship with the index of metal ores extraction in the Tehran stock exchange Among the above two indexes, the Nasdaq industrial metals index was more influential on the metal ores extraction index than the Bloomberg industrial metals index.
鉴于股票市场和商品指数作为预测指标的重要性,本研究考察了选定的全球商品指数对德黑兰证券交易所金属矿石指数的影响。利用2012年4月25日至2020年1月20日的月度国家数据,采用ARDL方法研究了彭博工业金属指数和纳斯达克工业金属指数对德黑兰证券交易所金属矿石开采指数的影响。为了研究这种长期关系的存在性,我们使用了界限检验。为了控制流动性、消费者通货膨胀、生产者通货膨胀和非官方市场汇率对自变量和因变量的影响,将这些变量作为模型中的控制变量。结果表明:不含能源的CRB全球商品指数、彭博工业金属指数和纳斯达克工业金属指数与德黑兰证券交易所金属矿石开采指数之间存在正相关关系,其中纳斯达克工业金属指数对金属矿石开采指数的影响大于彭博工业金属指数。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the change in the effect of fundamental variables on return in Tehran Stock Exchange 研究德黑兰证券交易所基本变量对收益影响的变化
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.57
Gholamhossein Asadi, Hossein Abdoh Tabrizi, Mostafa Nemati
1 In this study, the effect of fundamental variables and size on stock return is considered. The aim of the study is to answer two questions about each variable. The first question is how the effects of variables on the return have changed through time. In order to answer this question, the effect of each variable is considered in three consequential time windows: 2004-08, 2009-13, and 2014-18. The second question is on the effects of variables in 2018. The return of the market in this year significantly deviated from the historical average and it could be marked as an anomaly. The study aims to investigate how this irregularity affects the association between return and variables. In order to answer this question, the effect of each variable is considered in two different time windows: 2004-17, 2004-18. The data in this study consists of price and financial statements of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2004 to 2018 which are analyzed by methods used in Fama and French (1993) and Assadi and Eslami (2014). The results suggest that the effect of some variables has changed over time. The results also have shown that market irregularity in 2018 significantly changed the effect of some variables on stock return.
1本研究考虑了基本面变量和规模对股票收益的影响。这项研究的目的是回答关于每个变量的两个问题。第一个问题是变量对收益的影响是如何随着时间而变化的。为了回答这个问题,在三个相应的时间窗口中考虑每个变量的影响:2004-08、2009-13和2014-18。第二个问题是关于变量在2018年的影响。今年的市场回报明显偏离了历史平均水平,这可以被标记为异常。本研究旨在探讨这种不规律性如何影响收益与变量之间的关联。为了回答这个问题,每个变量的影响被考虑在两个不同的时间窗口:2004- 17,2004 -18。本研究的数据包括2004年至2018年德黑兰证券交易所上市公司的价格和财务报表,采用Fama和French(1993)和Assadi和Eslami(2014)使用的方法进行分析。结果表明,随着时间的推移,一些变量的影响发生了变化。研究结果还表明,2018年市场的不规则性显著改变了一些变量对股票收益的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Market Leverage Effect in Fama Frech Model Fama - french模型中的市场杠杆效应
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.9
Ezatolah Abbasian, R. Tehrani, Mojtaba Pakdin Amiri
the model is investigated. Among the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the number of statistical samples in the years under review (2016-2017) includes 1408 companies / year. According to the purpose of this research and the performed test, the result of the present research shows; In the three-factor model test, the effect of market factor and size is significant and the effect of value factor is not significant. Also, in the findings of the test of the three-factor adjustment model and considering the market leverage, the results indicate that the effect of market factors, value, size is significant. In both tests, the effect of market factor is significant and direct and the effect of size factor is significant and inverse. Also, the research results show that the value of the adjusted coefficient of determination in the modified three-factor model is more than the initial model and the addition of market leverage will improve the explanatory power of the model.
对该模型进行了研究。在德黑兰证券交易所上市的公司中,回顾年度(2016-2017年)的统计样本数量包括1408家公司/年。根据本研究的目的和所进行的测试,本研究的结果表明:在三因素模型检验中,市场因素和规模的影响显著,价值因素的影响不显著。此外,在三因素调整模型的检验结果中,考虑市场杠杆,结果表明市场因素、价值、规模的影响显著。在两个检验中,市场因素的影响显著且直接,规模因素的影响显著且反向。同时,研究结果表明,修正后的三因素模型调整后的决定系数值大于初始模型,市场杠杆的加入将提高模型的解释力。
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引用次数: 0
Presentation of the structural model of risk types in banks using the Fuzzy Interpretative Structural Modeling Approach 用模糊解释结构建模方法描述银行风险类型的结构模型
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.52547/jfmp.11.33.173
H. Farsijani, M. Arefnezhad, Somayeh Asadi, Ali Hasanvand
The experiences of recent decades in financial markets, and in particular the banks of different countries, indicate an increase in the importance of risk management in financial activities. Therefore, international efforts are aimed at creating a framework for standards that can be achieved by improving the financial health of the institution, especially banks. The axis of these standards has been manifested in creating an integrated risk management framework in the context of corporate risk management. The main purpose of the present research is to design a structural model of the types of existing risks in the banking sector. By studying thematic literature and using the textual content analysis approach, eleven effective risks were identified and for localization of them in the country's banking sector, Delphi technique was used for three periods of use It turned out The statistical population of the study consisted of managers and experts familiar with the subject and working in the banking sector. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data. The reliability and validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by calculating Kendall's correlation coefficient (0.82) and Goghos and Boucher's correlation coefficient (0.08, 0.06), respectively. In order to design a structural model of risk, an interpretive structural modeling approach was used in fuzzy environment to manage linguistic ambiguity in judgments. The results of the Mick-Mac modeling and analysis showed that liquidity, credit, operational, interest rate, exchange rate risk and risk of laws and regulations are key and basic risks in the banking sector.
近几十年来金融市场,特别是各国银行的经验表明,风险管理在金融活动中的重要性日益增加。因此,国际努力的目的是建立一个标准框架,可以通过改善机构特别是银行的财务健康状况来实现。这些标准的轴心体现在在企业风险管理的背景下创建一个综合风险管理框架。本研究的主要目的是设计银行业现有风险类型的结构模型。通过研究专题文献和使用文本内容分析法,确定了11个有效风险,并使用德尔菲技术进行了三个时期的使用,结果表明,研究的统计人口由熟悉该主题并在银行业工作的管理人员和专家组成。使用研究人员制作的问卷来收集数据。通过计算Kendall相关系数(0.82)和Goghos、Boucher相关系数(0.08、0.06)来验证问卷的信度和效度。为了设计风险的结构模型,采用模糊环境下的解释结构建模方法对判断中的语言歧义进行管理。Mick-Mac建模和分析结果表明,流动性风险、信贷风险、操作风险、利率风险、汇率风险和法律法规风险是银行业的关键和基本风险。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Financial Managment Perspective
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