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Asset Prices and Federal Reserve Behavior 资产价格与美联储行为
Pub Date : 2001-05-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.263170
Marc D. Hayford
The legislated goals of monetary policy are price stability and maximum employment; asset price stability is not a direct goal of monetary policy. In setting monetary policy, does the Fed also consider the level of the stock market? This paper examines empirically if monetary policy, since the October 19, 1987 stock market crash, has been influenced by high valuations of the stock market. A close examination of the data, a careful reading of the FOMC available transcripts and various econometric estimations of an augmented Taylor rule lead to the conclusion that the Fed has accommodated the high valuations of the stock market as measured by the S&P500 Index.
货币政策的法定目标是物价稳定和就业最大化;资产价格稳定不是货币政策的直接目标。在制定货币政策时,美联储是否也会考虑股市的水平?本文实证考察了1987年10月19日股市崩盘以来的货币政策是否受到股市高估值的影响。仔细研究这些数据,仔细阅读联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)现有的会议记录,以及对增强的泰勒规则(Taylor rule)的各种计量经济学估计,可以得出这样的结论:按照标准普尔500指数(S&P500 Index)的衡量,美联储已经适应了股市的高估值。
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引用次数: 0
Moment Condition Failure Australian Evidence 力矩状态失效澳大利亚证据
Pub Date : 2001-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.269049
J. Annaert, Marc J. K. de Ceuster, A. Hodgson
Statistical population moments may be finite or infinite. Determining whether certain moments of a population are finite or not based on a finite sample turns out to be a very daunting and difficult task. If one assumes stock returns to behave according the sum stable law, characteristic exponent point estimates of approximately 1.5 are found for Australian stocks. This result is fully in line with previous US findings and implies that the population variance is infinite. Hill-estimates, on the other hand, are above 2 for all stocks, indicating that the second moments do exist. This conflicting result is resolved by showing that the (unconditional) sum stable hypothesis can be rejected firmly. We do this by setting up a simulation experiment, in which we show that combinations of the Hill-estimate and the characteristic exponent produced by the real data are extremely unlikely for sum stables. These results confirm the existence of at least second moments. There is a good chance that third moments exist as well but this calls for further research.
统计总体矩可能是有限的,也可能是无限的。在有限样本的基础上确定总体的某些时刻是否有限是一项非常艰巨和困难的任务。如果假设股票收益遵循总和稳定定律,则澳大利亚股票的特征指数点估计约为1.5。这一结果与美国之前的研究结果完全一致,并暗示人口方差是无限的。另一方面,所有股票的希尔估计都在2以上,表明第二时刻确实存在。这个矛盾的结果通过证明(无条件)和稳定假设可以被坚决地拒绝而得到解决。我们通过建立一个模拟实验来做到这一点,在这个实验中,我们表明希尔估计和真实数据产生的特征指数的组合对于求和稳定是极不可能的。这些结果证实了至少秒矩的存在。第三时刻很有可能也存在,但这需要进一步的研究。
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引用次数: 2
Investing in Size and Book-to-Market Portfolios Using Information About the Macroeconomy: Some New Trading Rules 利用宏观经济信息投资规模和账面市值比:一些新的交易规则
Pub Date : 2001-03-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.265181
Michael J. Cooper, Huseyin Gulen, Maria Vassalou
We propose new trading strategies that invest in size and book-to-market (B/M) decile portfolios. These trading strategies are based on a forecast model that uses mainly business cycle-related variables as predictors. Extensive out-of-sample experiments show profitable predictability in the returns of the decile portfolios. In particular, the proposed strategies outperform passive investments in the same deciles, as well as SMB- and HML-type of strategies. A key characteristic of the proposed strategies is that the long and short positions can be invested in different decile portfolios across time. This is in contrast to the traditional SMB- and HML-type of strategies that always go long and short on the same portfolios. Active strategies that involve the market portfolio, SMB and HML are also examined. A significant level of predictability is identified for SMB. Our results suggest that time variation in SMB and HML is linked to variations in aggregate, macroeconomic, nodiversifiable risk. Thus, our results most closely support a risk-based explanation for SMB and HML.
我们提出了新的交易策略,投资于规模和账面市值比(B/M)十分位投资组合。这些交易策略基于一个预测模型,该模型主要使用与商业周期相关的变量作为预测因子。大量的样本外实验表明,十分位数投资组合的收益具有可预测性。特别是,所提出的策略在相同的十分位数上优于被动投资,以及SMB和hml类型的策略。所提出的策略的一个关键特征是,多头和空头头寸可以在不同的时间内投资于不同的十分位数组合。这与传统的SMB和html类型的策略形成对比,后者总是在相同的投资组合上做多做空。积极的策略,涉及市场组合,中小企业和HML也进行了审查。为SMB确定了一个重要的可预测性水平。我们的研究结果表明,中小企业和HML的时间变化与总体、宏观经济、不可分散风险的变化有关。因此,我们的结果最密切地支持基于风险的SMB和HML解释。
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引用次数: 42
Assessing Market Risk for Hedge Funds and Hedge Funds Portfolios 评估对冲基金和对冲基金投资组合的市场风险
Pub Date : 2001-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.268527
F. Lhabitant
We suggest an empirical model to analyze the investment style of individual hedge funds and funds of funds. Our approach is based on a mixture of the style analysis approach suggested by Sharpe (1988), the factor push approach used in stress testing, and historical simulation. An interesting and straightforward extension of this model is the estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) figures. This extension is tested using a very intuitive implementation over a large sample of 2,934 hedge funds over the 1994-2000 period. Both the in-the-sample and the out-of-sample results suggest that the proposed approach is useful and may constitute a valuable tool for assessing the investment style and risk of hedge funds.
我们提出了一个实证模型来分析单个对冲基金和基金的基金的投资风格。我们的方法是基于Sharpe(1988)提出的风格分析方法、压力测试中使用的因素推动方法和历史模拟的混合。该模型的一个有趣而直接的扩展是对风险价值(VaR)数字的估计。这个扩展是使用一个非常直观的实现在一个大样本的2,934对冲基金在1994-2000年期间进行测试。样本内和样本外的结果都表明,所提出的方法是有用的,并且可能构成评估对冲基金投资风格和风险的有价值的工具。
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引用次数: 54
Sub-Optimal Acquisition Decisions Under a Majority Shareholder System: An Empirical Investigation 大股东制度下的次优收购决策:实证研究
Pub Date : 2001-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.261311
Stefano Mengoli, M. Bigelli
The high separation of ownership from control achieved in many Italian listed companies through the concurrent use of non-voting shares and stock pyramiding may favour acquisitions made to increase private benefits of the controlling shareholders rather than all the shareholders' wealth. A standard event study methodology is carried out on three different samples of acquisitions during 1989-1996 period in order to test the hypothesis. Firstly, we find evidence that poor performance is more likely to occur in acquiring firms where the separation of ownership from control (as measured by the o/c ratio) is higher. Moreover, value-enhancing transactions are found to be more likely embarked by acquirors smaller in size, with higher prior-performance and higher growth. Secondly, restricting the sample to aquirors with both voting and non-voting shares we show that the average cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in a 60-day event window is +0.48 percent for the voting versus a significantly lower -4.41 percent for the non-voting shares. We explain this picture as evidence that on one side the average acquisition has been overpaid (as suggested by the negative sign of the non-voting shares). On the other side it reveals that the transaction was expected to lead to higher private benefits to the majority shareholders (as suggested by the revaluation of the vote component as difference between the two classes of shares). Finally, the market reaction to 19 acquisitions where both bidder and seller are held by the same controller clearly shows that the price is set so as to transfer wealth towards the companies located at the upper levels, where the ownership of the majority shareholders is less diluted. We interpret these findings as evidence that through the separation of ownership from control entrenched-majority shareholders owning only a minor fraction of cash flow rights may lead corporate wealth destroying investment decisions. Moreover, we show that the risk of expropriation seems to be the major principal-agent problem in a country characterised by poor legal investor protection, of which Italy may be an ideal archetype
许多意大利上市公司通过同时使用无投票权股份和股票金字塔实现了所有权与控制权的高度分离,这可能有利于增加控股股东的私人利益而不是所有股东的财富的收购。为了检验这一假设,对1989-1996年期间三个不同的收购样本采用了标准事件研究方法。首先,我们发现证据表明,在所有权与控制权分离程度较高的收购公司中(以o/c比率衡量),业绩不佳的可能性更大。此外,价值提升交易更有可能由规模较小的收购方进行,这些收购方具有更高的先验绩效和更高的成长性。其次,将样本限制为具有表决权和无表决权股份的收购者,我们表明,在60天的事件窗口中,有表决权股票的平均累积异常回报(CARs)为+ 0.48%,而无表决权股票的平均累积异常回报(CARs)显著低于- 4.41%。我们将这幅图解释为证据,一方面,平均收购价过高(如无投票权股份的负号所示)。另一方面,它揭示了该交易预计会给大股东带来更高的私人利益(正如重估两类股票之间的差异所表明的那样)。最后,市场对19宗投标方和卖方均由同一控制人持有的收购的反应清楚地表明,价格的设定是为了将财富转移给位于上层的公司,在那里,大股东的所有权较少被稀释。我们将这些发现解释为证据,通过所有权与控制权的分离,拥有一小部分现金流权利的根深蒂固的大股东可能导致企业财富破坏投资决策。此外,我们表明,在一个以投资者法律保护不力为特征的国家,征用风险似乎是主要的委托代理问题,意大利可能是一个理想的原型
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引用次数: 4
Approximations for the Value-at-Risk Approach to Risk-Return Analysis 风险收益分析的风险价值逼近方法
Pub Date : 2001-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.269733
Dirk Tasche, L. Tibiletti
An evergreen debate in Finance concerns the rules for making portfolio hedge decisions. A traditional tool proposed in the literature is the well-known standard deviation based Sharpe Ratio, which has been recently generalized in order to involve also other popular risk measures p, such as VaR (Value-at-Risk) or CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk). This approach gives the correct choice of portfolio selection in a mean-p world as long as p is homogeneous of order 1. But, unfortunately, in important cases calculating the exact incremental Sharpe Ratio for ranking profitable portfolios turns out to be computationally too costly. Therefore, more easy-to-use rules for a rapid portfolio selection are needed. The research in this direction for VaR is just the aim of the paper. Approximation formulae are carried out which are based on certain derivatives of VaR and involve quantities similar to the skewness and kurtosis of the random variables under consid-eration. Starting point for the approximations is the observation that the partial derivatives of portfolio VaR with respect to the portfolio weights are just the conditional expectations of the asset returns given that the portfolio return equals VaR. Since the conditional expec-tation of a random variable Y given another random variable X can be considered the best possible regression of Y versus X in least squares sense, the idea is to replace the conditional expectation by polynomial regression or, more generally, by finite-dimensional regression of Y versus X. In case of the variables obeying an elliptical joint distribution, the resulting approximation formulae coincide with the exact formula for the standard deviation taken as risk measure. By means of a number of numerical examples and counter-examples the properties of the formulae are discussed.
在金融领域,关于投资组合对冲决策规则的争论由来已久。文献中提出的一个传统工具是众所周知的基于标准差的夏普比率,它最近被推广,以涉及其他流行的风险度量,如VaR(风险价值)或CVaR(风险条件价值)。该方法给出了在均值-p世界中,只要p是阶1齐次的,就能正确选择投资组合的方法。但不幸的是,在一些重要的案例中,计算精确的增量夏普比率来对盈利的投资组合进行排名的计算成本太高。因此,需要更易于使用的规则来快速选择投资组合。在这个方向上对VaR进行研究正是本文的目的所在。基于VaR的某些导数,并涉及与所考虑的随机变量的偏度和峰度相似的量,给出了近似公式。近似的起点是观察到投资组合VaR相对于投资组合权重的偏导数只是资产回报的条件期望,假设投资组合回报等于VaR。由于随机变量Y给定另一个随机变量X的条件期望可以被认为是最小二乘意义上Y与X的最佳回归,其思想是用多项式回归或更一般地,通过Y对x的有限维回归,当变量服从椭圆联合分布时,得到的近似公式与作为风险度量的标准差的精确公式相吻合。通过若干数值算例和反例,讨论了公式的性质。
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引用次数: 22
Interest Parity, Cointegration and the Term Structure: Testing in an Integrated Framework 利率平价、协整与期限结构:在整合框架下的检验
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.268909
D. Georgoutsos, Georgios P. Kouretas
In this paper we develop a methodology for testing the validity of the expectations theory of the term structure and the uncovered interest parity within the framework provided by cointegration theory. For this purpose, we apply the multivariate cointegration technique suggested by Johansen (1988, 1991) using data on interest rates from the eurodollar and euromark markets with maturity ranging from 7 days to 1 year. First, we were able to find nine statistically significant cointegrating vectors among the system of ten interest rates. Second, given that more than one long-run relationships were found we imposed independent linear and homogeneous restrictions on the system and the joint structure of the expectations theory and the UIP could not be rejected implying that our proposed framework is a valid framework to study the interdependence of monetary policy in an integrated scheme. Finally, with the application of tests for parameter stability in cointegrated models we show that our cointegration results are sample independent and that the estimated coefficients do not suffer from instabilities in recursive estimations.
在本文中,我们开发了一种在协整理论提供的框架内测试期限结构预期理论和未发现的利率平价的有效性的方法。为此,我们采用Johansen(1988, 1991)提出的多元协整技术,使用期限从7天到1年的欧洲美元和欧洲马克市场的利率数据。首先,我们能够在10个利率系统中找到9个统计上显著的协整向量。其次,鉴于发现了多个长期关系,我们对系统施加了独立的线性和同质限制,期望理论和UIP的联合结构不能被拒绝,这意味着我们提出的框架是研究综合方案中货币政策相互依赖的有效框架。最后,通过对协整模型参数稳定性检验的应用,我们表明我们的协整结果是样本无关的,估计的系数在递归估计中不受不稳定性的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Shareholder Wealth Experience of Buyers in Corporate Divestitures: Impact of Business Strategy, Growth Opportunities and Bargaining Power 企业剥离中买方股东财富经验:企业战略、成长机会和议价能力的影响
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.277473
G. Alexandrou, P. Sudarsanam
Whether corporate acquisitions create or destroy value for shareholders is still an unresolved issue. One type of corporate acquisition is made when another firm carries out a divestiture. Evidence on the wealth effects of such partial acquisitions is limited to a few US studies. This study examines the wealth experience of buyers in 877 UK corporate divestitures during 1987-93 and seeks to identify the factors determining the wealth gains. We focus on value created by the acquirer through its business strategy and by exploiting its growth opportunities and on value distributed from the seller to the buyer due to the relative bargaining power of the seller and the buyer. We find that buyers experience significant buy and hold abnormal returns of 0.48% over three days following the divestiture announcement. Thus in contrast to many full takeovers, partial acquisitions create value. We also report that buyers enjoy larger gains when they buy from financially healthy sellers and during recessions. Economic environment rather than firm-specific growth opportunities lead to higher returns. Materially larger purchases create more value. UK buyers buying UK divisions of the seller have an information advantage over UK purchasers of foreign divisions and experience larger wealth increases. The study highlights the importance of environmental, firm-specific and transactional characteristics in determining the value gains from partial acquisitions.
企业收购是为股东创造价值还是破坏价值,仍是一个悬而未决的问题。一种公司收购是当另一家公司进行资产剥离时进行的。有关这种部分收购的财富效应的证据仅限于美国的几项研究。本研究考察了1987- 1993年间877家英国公司剥离的买家的财富体验,并试图确定决定财富收益的因素。我们关注收购方通过其商业战略和利用其增长机会创造的价值,以及由于卖方和买方的相对议价能力而从卖方分配给买方的价值。我们发现,在宣布剥离后的三天内,买家经历了显著的买入和持有异常回报0.48%。因此,与许多全面收购不同,部分收购能创造价值。我们还报告说,当买家从财务状况良好的卖家那里购买时,以及在经济衰退期间,他们会获得更大的收益。经济环境而不是公司特定的增长机会导致更高的回报。事实上,更大的购买创造了更多的价值。购买卖方的英国部门的英国买家比购买外国部门的英国买家具有信息优势,并且经历更大的财富增长。该研究强调了环境、特定公司和交易特征在决定部分收购的价值收益方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 3
Consistent High-Precision Volatility from High-Frequency Data 从高频数据中获得一致的高精度波动性
Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.261149
Fulvio Corsi, G. Zumbach, Ulrich A. Müller, M. Dacorogna
type="main" xml:lang="en"> Estimates of daily volatility are investigated. Realized volatility can be computed from returns observed over time intervals of different sizes. For simple statistical reasons, volatility estimators based on high-frequency returns have been proposed, but such estimators are found to be strongly biased as compared to volatilities of daily returns. This bias originates from microstructure effects in the price formation. For foreign exchange, the relevant microstructure effect is the incoherent price formation, which leads to a strong negative first-order autocorrelation ρ(1)≃40 per cent for tick-by-tick returns and to the volatility bias. On the basis of a simple theoretical model for foreign exchange data, the incoherent term can be filtered away from the tick-by-tick price series. With filtered prices, the daily volatility can be estimated using the information contained in high-frequency data, providing a high-precision measure of volatility at any time interval. (J.E.L.: C13, C22, C81).
type="main" xml:lang="en">对每日波动率的估计进行了研究。已实现的波动率可以通过在不同大小的时间间隔内观察到的回报来计算。由于简单的统计原因,已经提出了基于高频收益的波动率估计器,但与每日收益的波动率相比,这种估计器被发现有强烈的偏差。这种偏差源于价格形成过程中的微观结构效应。对于外汇,相关的微观结构效应是不连贯的价格形成,这导致一阶负自相关ρ(1)随时间变化的回报达到40%,并导致波动性偏差。在外汇数据的一个简单的理论模型的基础上,不连贯的项可以从逐点价格序列中过滤掉。通过过滤价格,可以使用高频数据中包含的信息来估计每日波动率,从而在任何时间间隔内提供高精度的波动率测量。(j.e.l.: c13, c22, c81)。
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引用次数: 152
Is the London Market Competitive? A Study of Trading Behavior of London Market Makers 伦敦市场竞争激烈吗?伦敦做市商交易行为研究
Pub Date : 2000-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.246457
Rosita P. Chang, Chunlin Liu, S. Rhee
A Study of Trading Behavior of London Market Makers Abstract This study examines the competitiveness of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) on the basis of trading activities of different market makers for a sample of FTSE-100 component stocks. Specifically, the relations studied between market shares of individual market makers and their price- and quantity-setting behavior, preferenced trading activities, and trading profitability infer the competitiveness of the London market. The results show that market makers can obtain relative larger shares of public order flows through posting more competitive prices with greater quote depths. No evidence is found to support that preferenced trading distort the market shares of trading among market makers because it is limited to small-sized trades. However, this study does suggest that those market makers who takes more trading risks are not only rewarded with larger market shares of public order flows but also compensated with higher spread profit margins. The overall findings from the study indicate that the LSE is a competitive dealership market.
摘要本研究以富时100指数成分股为样本,以不同做市商的交易活动为基础,考察伦敦证券交易所(LSE)的竞争力。具体而言,通过研究个体做市商的市场份额与其定价定量行为、偏好交易活动和交易盈利能力之间的关系,可以推断出伦敦市场的竞争力。结果表明,做市商可以通过报价深度越大、价格越有竞争力来获得相对较大的公共订单流量份额。没有证据支持优先交易扭曲了做市商之间交易的市场份额,因为它仅限于小规模交易。然而,本研究确实表明,那些承担更多交易风险的做市商不仅可以获得更大的公共订单流市场份额,还可以获得更高的点差利润率。研究的总体结果表明,伦敦经济学院是一个竞争激烈的经销商市场。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
European Financial Management Association Meetings (EFMA) (Archive)
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