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Oncological characteristics predict permanent hypoparathyroidism following total thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma: a study from China. 肿瘤特征预测乳头状甲状腺癌全甲状腺切除术后的永久性甲状旁腺功能减退:一项来自中国的研究。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-21
Yu-Jing Weng, Zhi-Heng Huang, Lei Min

Background: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common endocrine malignancy, and total thyroidectomy is frequently recommended for patients with bilateral disease, large tumors, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), or lymph node metastasis. Hypoparathyroidism is one of the most clinically significant complications after total thyroidectomy, resulting from inadvertent parathyroid gland (PG) injury, devascularization, or removal. Permanent hypoparathyroidism can lead to chronic hypocalcemia, neuromuscular symptoms, renal impairment, and impaired quality of life. While many studies have investigated risk factors for hypoparathyroidism in general thyroidectomy populations, few have focused specifically on oncological characteristics that predict permanent hypoparathyroidism among PTC patients. This study aimed to evaluate oncological predictors of permanent hypoparathyroidism following total thyroidectomy for PTC in a Chinese population.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including 367 patients with postoperative histological confirmation of PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy at a tertiary center in China between January 2017 and January 2021. Clinical, surgical, and pathological parameters were collected. Hypoparathyroidism was defined as low serum calcium with suppressed parathyroid hormone (PTH), and permanent hypoparathyroidism was defined as persistence beyond 6 months. Univariate analyses were performed to screen potential risk factors, and variables with P<0.1 were included in multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors.

Results: Permanent hypoparathyroidism developed in 27 patients (7.36%). In univariate analysis, ETE, tumor size, number of involved central lymph nodes (CLNs), and presence of parathyroid tissue in pathological specimens were associated with permanent hypoparathyroidism. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated three independent predictors: gross ETE [odds ratio (OR) =3.584, P=0.02], presence of parathyroid tissue in pathological specimens (OR =3.809, P=0.005), and a higher number of involved CLNs (OR =1.147, P=0.049). These findings suggest that tumor aggressiveness and surgical complexity contribute to long-term parathyroid dysfunction.

Conclusions: Tumor invasiveness and surgical-related factors significantly contribute to the risk of permanent hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy in PTC patients. Particular attention should be paid to preserving PGs during extensive resection in cases of gross ETE and heavy CLN involvement.

背景:甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)是最常见的内分泌恶性肿瘤,对于双侧病变、大肿瘤、甲状腺外延伸(ETE)或淋巴结转移的患者,常建议行全甲状腺切除术。甲状旁腺功能减退症是全甲状腺切除术后最重要的临床并发症之一,主要由甲状旁腺(PG)损伤、断流或切除引起。永久性甲状旁腺功能减退可导致慢性低钙血症、神经肌肉症状、肾功能损害和生活质量下降。虽然许多研究调查了一般甲状腺切除术人群中甲状旁腺功能减退的危险因素,但很少有研究专门关注PTC患者中预测永久性甲状旁腺功能减退的肿瘤特征。本研究旨在评估中国人群PTC全甲状腺切除术后永久性甲状旁腺功能减退的肿瘤学预测因素。方法:回顾性队列研究,纳入367例2017年1月至2021年1月在中国三级中心接受甲状腺全切除术的PTC术后组织学证实患者。收集临床、手术和病理参数。甲状旁腺功能减退症定义为低血钙伴甲状旁腺激素(PTH)抑制,永久性甲状旁腺功能减退症定义为持续6个月以上。单因素分析筛选潜在危险因素,变量结果:27例(7.36%)患者出现永久性甲状旁腺功能减退。在单因素分析中,病理标本中te、肿瘤大小、受病灶中央淋巴结(cln)数量和甲状旁腺组织的存在与永久性甲状旁腺功能减退有关。多因素logistic回归显示了三个独立的预测因素:总ETE[比值比(OR) =3.584, P=0.02],病理标本中甲状旁腺组织的存在(OR =3.809, P=0.005),以及更多的cln (OR =1.147, P=0.049)。这些发现提示肿瘤侵袭性和手术复杂性导致长期甲状旁腺功能障碍。结论:PTC患者甲状腺全切除术后发生永久性甲状旁腺功能减退的风险与肿瘤侵袭性及手术相关因素有关。特别注意的是,在广泛切除的情况下,应保留pg的总ETE和严重的CLN累及。
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引用次数: 0
What factors are associated with robotic distal pancreatectomy conversion? 哪些因素与机器人远端胰腺切除术转换相关?
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-438
Jose M Ramia, Cándido Alcázar
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引用次数: 0
Risk factors and predictive nomograms for early mortality in patients with thyroid cancer lung metastasis based on the SEER database and a Chinese population study. 基于SEER数据库和中国人群研究的甲状腺癌肺转移患者早期死亡的危险因素和预测图
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-328
Rui Lv, Yuting Yuan, Jianhua Shi, Jinyu Li, Wei Song, Jiangyang Wan, Chen Zhang, Cheng Chen, Linlin Zhen, Qiang Li

Background: The lung is the most vulnerable site for distant thyroid cancer (TC) metastasis, and individuals who have TC lung metastases (TCLMs) succumb to the illness shortly after diagnosis. This study aims to identify the risk factors of early mortality in TCLM patients and develop a reliable and accurate prediction model. An accurate nomogram for predicting early mortality (survival time ≤3 months) in TCLM patients is necessary.

Methods: Between 2010 and 2015, information gathered from TCLM patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to develop and internally evaluate a prediction model. External validation was performed using data acquired from a Chinese population. All-cause early death (ACED) encompassed mortality from any cause within this period, whereas cancer-specific early death (CSED) specifically referred to deaths explicitly attributed to TC or its complications on the death certificate. The risk factors for CSED and ACED were identified independently using univariate and multivariable logistic regressions. The nomogram's accuracy was confirmed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and calibration curves were used to evaluate the consistency between the model predictions and the actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the model's clinical applicability.

Results: This study included 945 patients, 636 (67.3%) of whom died shortly after diagnosis and 335 (35.4%) of whom died from TCLM-related complications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses independently identified six predictors for ACED and seven predictors for CSED. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the nomogram for predicting ACED and CSED were 0.912 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.889-0.931] and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.691-0.776), respectively. Combined with the results of the calibration curve analysis, these findings demonstrated that the nomograms effectively predicted the risk of early death in both the internal and external sets. DCA revealed that the nomograms provide considerable clinical advantages.

Conclusions: In the present study, nomograms were developed to reliably predict the risk of early mortality in individuals with TCLM. These tools can assist physicians in identifying high-risk patients and implementing tailored treatment plans as soon as possible.

背景:肺是远处甲状腺癌(TC)转移的最易感部位,TC肺转移(TCLMs)的个体在诊断后不久就死于这种疾病。本研究旨在识别TCLM患者早期死亡的危险因素,建立可靠、准确的预测模型。预测TCLM患者早期死亡(生存时间≤3个月)的准确nomogram是必要的。方法:2010年至2015年,利用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中收集的TCLM患者信息,开发并内部评估预测模型。使用从中国人群中获得的数据进行外部验证。全因早期死亡(ced)包括在此期间任何原因造成的死亡,而癌症特异性早期死亡(CSED)具体指死亡证明上明确归因于TC或其并发症的死亡。使用单变量和多变量logistic回归分别确定CSED和ed的危险因素。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析验证nomogram的准确性,并利用标定曲线评价模型预测结果与实际结果的一致性。采用决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型的临床适用性。结果:本研究纳入945例患者,其中636例(67.3%)在诊断后不久死亡,335例(35.4%)死于tclm相关并发症。多变量逻辑回归分析独立地确定了6个预测因素,以及7个预测因素。预测ace和CSED的nomogram curve under area (auc)分别为0.912[95%可信区间(CI) 0.889 ~ 0.931]和0.732 (95% CI: 0.691 ~ 0.776)。结合校准曲线分析的结果,这些发现表明,无论对内组还是对外组,nomogram都能有效地预测早期死亡的风险。DCA显示,图提供了相当大的临床优势。结论:在目前的研究中,nomogram可以可靠地预测TCLM患者的早期死亡风险。这些工具可以帮助医生识别高危患者,并尽快实施量身定制的治疗计划。
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引用次数: 0
Metastasis number and ratio in regional lymph nodes as predictive indicators for distant metastasis in medullary thyroid cancer: beyond American Joint Committee on Cancer nodal staging. 区域淋巴结转移的数量和比例作为甲状腺髓样癌远处转移的预测指标:超越美国癌症淋巴结分期联合委员会
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-378
Zihan Chen, Jiesheng Su, Naishi Li, Weibo Xia

Background: It has been reported that medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) with distant metastasis may result in poor prognosis. The aim of the study was to estimate the risk of distant metastasis in patients with MTC based on metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes, more than just according to the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 744 participants from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) STAT 8.4.3 database from 2018 to 2022. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the predictive value of the condition of positive regional lymph nodes for identifying distant metastasis. The estimates are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: In patients with MTC, the 8th edition of the AJCC node (N) stage could traditionally predict the risk of distant metastasis, with N1a (OR 6.21; 95% CI: 1.46-42.42; P=0.03), and N1b (OR 23.20; 95% CI: 6.69-146.54; P<0.001), compared with the stage of N0. However, the upward trend was relatively more significant in the model with the number of metastatic regional lymph nodes. The number of positive regional lymph nodes could predict the risk of distant metastasis, with 1-10 (OR 9.13; 95% CI: 2.47-59.11; P=0.004), 11-20 (OR 25.72; 95% CI: 6.52-171.29; P<0.001), and >20 (OR 26.44; 95% CI: 6.50-178.95; P<0.001) metastatic regional lymph nodes, compared with no metastasis of regional lymph nodes. Similar results could be found in predicting bone metastasis. The cut-off value of metastatic regional lymph node ratio metastatic regional lymph nodes in predicting distant metastasis was 0.176. Patients with the ratio greater than cut-off value were found to have a significantly higher risk of developing distant metastasis (OR 18.24; 95% CI: 6.33-77.26; P<0.001).

Conclusions: Metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes can be effective predictors for distant metastasis in patients with MTC, which is helpful for the modification of the 8th edition of the AJCC N stage.

背景:有报道称甲状腺髓样癌(MTC)有远处转移可能导致预后不良。本研究的目的是根据转移数量和区域淋巴结的比例来评估MTC患者远处转移的风险,而不仅仅是根据美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)肿瘤-淋巴结-转移(TNM)分期系统。方法:本横断面研究纳入了2018年至2022年监测流行病学和最终结果(SEER) STAT 8.4.3数据库中的744名参与者。采用多变量logistic回归来确定区域淋巴结阳性情况对鉴别远处转移的预测价值。估计值以95%置信区间(ci)的比值比(ORs)表示。结果:在MTC患者中,AJCC第8版淋巴结(N)分期可以传统地预测远处转移的风险,N1a (OR 6.21; 95% CI: 1.46 ~ 42.42; P=0.03)和N1b (OR 23.20; 95% CI: 6.69 ~ 146.54; P20 (OR 26.44; 95% CI: 6.50 ~ 178.95; P)是预测MTC患者远处转移的有效指标,这有助于AJCC第8版N分期的修改。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum: CCNB1 may as a biomarker for the adipogenic differentiation of adipose-derived stem cells in the postoperative fat transplantation of breast cancer. 勘误:CCNB1可能作为乳腺癌术后脂肪移植中脂肪源性干细胞成脂分化的生物标志物。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025b-4

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.21037/gs-23-493.].

[更正文章DOI: 10.21037/gs-23-493]。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between the extent of extrathyroidal extension and lymph node metastasis based on propensity score matching analysis. 基于倾向评分匹配分析甲状腺外展程度与淋巴结转移的关系。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-11-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-319
Shiying Yang, Chun Huang, Jing Zhou, Zhuolin Dai, Xinliang Su

Background: Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) are significant factors influencing the prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, their relationship remains controversial. This study explores the connection between ETE and LNM by using propensity score matching (PSM) to guide individualized treatment.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,045 PTC patients who underwent surgery between January 2023 and June 2024. PSM at a 1:1 ratio was used to balance confounding factors based on univariate and multivariate analyses to investigate the relationship between ETE and LNM.

Results: Among the 1,045 patients, 55.8% had LNM, and 16.1% had ETE. Univariate analysis showed that male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, ETE, and multifocal were associated with LNM (P<0.05). Multivariate analyses identified male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, and multifocal as independent risk factors for LNM (P<0.05). After PSM in the present data set, the difference in LNM rates between ETE and non-ETE groups did not reach statistical significance (P>0.05). Similarly, the relationship between LNM and ETE was analyzed. Univariate analysis showed that age <45 years, tumor location, tumor diameter ≥8 mm, multifocal and LNM were risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age <45 years, tumor located at the isthmus, tumor diameter ≥8 mm and LNM were independent risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). After PSM, no significant difference in ETE was found between patients with and without LNM (P>0.05).

Conclusions: In this single-center, retrospective PSM cohort, we did not observe a significant association between the extent of ETE and LNM in patients with PTC. ETE does not appear to be a reliable indicator for guiding the extent of lymph node dissection. For patients with concurrent ETE, the lymph node dissection range should be personalized.

背景:甲状腺外展及淋巴结转移是影响甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)预后的重要因素。然而,他们的关系仍然存在争议。本研究利用倾向评分匹配(PSM)来指导个体化治疗,探讨te与LNM之间的关系。方法:对2023年1月至2024年6月接受手术治疗的1045例PTC患者进行回顾性分析。在单因素和多因素分析的基础上,采用1:1比例的PSM来平衡混杂因素,探讨ETE与LNM之间的关系。结果:1045例患者中,LNM占55.8%,ETE占16.1%。单因素分析结果为男性,年龄0.05)。同样,我们也分析了LNM和ETE之间的关系。单因素分析显示年龄0.05)。结论:在这个单中心、回顾性PSM队列中,我们没有观察到PTC患者的te程度和LNM之间的显著关联。te似乎不是指导淋巴结清扫程度的可靠指标。对于并发ETE的患者,淋巴结清扫范围应个性化。
{"title":"The relationship between the extent of extrathyroidal extension and lymph node metastasis based on propensity score matching analysis.","authors":"Shiying Yang, Chun Huang, Jing Zhou, Zhuolin Dai, Xinliang Su","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-319","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-319","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) are significant factors influencing the prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, their relationship remains controversial. This study explores the connection between ETE and LNM by using propensity score matching (PSM) to guide individualized treatment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,045 PTC patients who underwent surgery between January 2023 and June 2024. PSM at a 1:1 ratio was used to balance confounding factors based on univariate and multivariate analyses to investigate the relationship between ETE and LNM.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 1,045 patients, 55.8% had LNM, and 16.1% had ETE. Univariate analysis showed that male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, ETE, and multifocal were associated with LNM (P<0.05). Multivariate analyses identified male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, and multifocal as independent risk factors for LNM (P<0.05). After PSM in the present data set, the difference in LNM rates between ETE and non-ETE groups did not reach statistical significance (P>0.05). Similarly, the relationship between LNM and ETE was analyzed. Univariate analysis showed that age <45 years, tumor location, tumor diameter ≥8 mm, multifocal and LNM were risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age <45 years, tumor located at the isthmus, tumor diameter ≥8 mm and LNM were independent risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). After PSM, no significant difference in ETE was found between patients with and without LNM (P>0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In this single-center, retrospective PSM cohort, we did not observe a significant association between the extent of ETE and LNM in patients with PTC. ETE does not appear to be a reliable indicator for guiding the extent of lymph node dissection. For patients with concurrent ETE, the lymph node dissection range should be personalized.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2258-2270"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685776/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modern management of phyllodes tumours: closing the gap between evidence and practice. 叶状肿瘤的现代管理:缩小证据与实践之间的差距。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-11-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-385
Mariam Rizk, Kefah Mokbel
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引用次数: 0
Preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in breast invasive ductal carcinoma patients using a deep learning model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging: a multicenter study. 基于动态增强磁共振成像的深度学习模型预测乳腺浸润性导管癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移:一项多中心研究
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-11-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-365
Changcong Gu, Yuqing He, Jinshi Lin, Zilong Wang, Shuai Guo, Huang Yang, Wenxi Wang, Junyi Sun, Huishu Gan, Haoxiang Li

Background: Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) is the most common histological subtype of breast cancer, and axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) is a pivotal factor in clinical staging, prognostic assessment, and treatment planning. This study aims to develop and validate a deep learning (DL) model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) for the prediction of ALNM in IDC patients.

Methods: This multicenter study conducted a retrospective analysis of DCE-MRI images from 520 patients diagnosed with IDC of the breast. The training and internal validation sets consisted of 411 patients from The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao, while the external testing set included 109 patients from the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Qinhuangdao. Radiomics and DL features were extracted separately from the DCE-MRI images. We evaluated five models (Clinical, Radiomics, Radiomics-Clinical, DL, DL-Clinical) using radiomics features, DL features, and clinical features. Finally, the predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC).

Results: The AUCs for the Clinical model and Radiomics model, which are machine learning models, and the DL-model, were 0.807, 0.840, and 0.865, respectively. The combined models incorporating clinical features, namely the Radiomics-Clinical and DL-Clinical models, achieved AUCs of 0.824 and 0.935, respectively. Among the five models, the DL-Clinical model demonstrated a significant advantage in predicting ALNM. Additionally, this model exhibited robust performance in both internal validation and external testing sets, with AUCs of 0.946 and 0.951, respectively.

Conclusions: The DCE-MRI-based DL-Clinical model provides a non-invasive adjunct tool for preoperative identification of ALNM in patients with breast IDC, thereby enhancing the efficacy of personalized treatment strategies and improving patient quality of life.

背景:浸润性导管癌(Invasive ductal carcinoma, IDC)是乳腺癌最常见的组织学亚型,而腋窝淋巴结转移(axillary lymph node metastasis, ALNM)是影响临床分期、预后评估和治疗计划的关键因素。本研究旨在开发和验证基于动态对比增强磁共振成像(DCE-MRI)的深度学习(DL)模型,用于预测IDC患者的ALNM。方法:本多中心研究对520例诊断为乳腺IDC的患者的DCE-MRI图像进行回顾性分析。训练集和内部验证集包括来自秦皇岛市第一医院的411例患者,外部测试集包括来自秦皇岛市妇幼保健院的109例患者。从DCE-MRI图像中分别提取放射组学和DL特征。我们使用放射组学特征、DL特征和临床特征评估了五个模型(临床、放射组学、放射组学-临床、DL、DL-临床)。最后,使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型的预测性能。结果:作为机器学习模型的临床模型和放射组学模型的auc分别为0.807、0.840和0.865。结合临床特征的放射组学-临床模型和dl -临床模型auc分别为0.824和0.935。在5个模型中,dl -临床模型在预测ALNM方面具有显著优势。此外,该模型在内部验证集和外部测试集上都表现出稳健的性能,auc分别为0.946和0.951。结论:基于dce - mri的dl -临床模型为乳腺IDC患者的ALNM术前识别提供了一种无创辅助工具,从而提高了个性化治疗策略的疗效,提高了患者的生活质量。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying risk factors for poor prognosis and developing prognostic model in patients achieving pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy for breast cancer. 乳腺癌新辅助治疗后病理完全缓解患者预后不良危险因素的识别及预后模型的建立。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-11-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-181
Xixi Lin, Shenkangle Wang, Ziyu Zhu, Zijie Guo, Mingpeng Luo, Qiong Ding, Linbo Wang, Jichun Zhou

Background: A subset of breast cancer patients who achieved pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) still experience poor outcomes, including recurrence, metastasis, and death. This study aims to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes in pCR patients, construct predictive models, elucidate molecular subtype-specific prognostic determinants, and explore the peaks of death and progression events among different subtypes.

Methods: Female patients who received NAT and achieved pCR in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled in this research. This study aims to clarify independent prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) by using Cox regression analyses as well as developing nomograms and random survival forest (RSF) machine learning model to predict prognoses of patients with pCR. Subgroup analysis was performed to clarify molecular subtype heterogeneity, and survival sequential analysis was conducted to identify survival and progression event peaks.

Results: Analyses based on SEER data identified age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, surgical approach, and histological grade as independent predictors of OS [Concordance index (C-index) =0.723; 3-year area under the curve (AUC) =0.707], while EFS predictors included age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, and grade (C-index =0.682; 3-year AUC =0.690). The C-index of OS and EFS nomograms were 0.723 (3-year AUC =0.711) and 0.682 (3-year AUC =0.691) respectively. The RSF model for mortality risk achieved a C-index of 0.721 (3-year AUC =0.73). Prognostic factors varied across molecular subtypes, though T/N stage was a common determinant. Survival sequential peaks for death events occurred at 36 months [triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC)], 114 months (Luminal), and 97 months [human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive subtype], while progression events' peaks were observed at 111 months (TNBC), 114 months (Luminal), and 84 months (HER2-positive subtype).

Conclusions: This study systematically revealed key clinicopathological factors influencing prognosis of pCR patients receiving NAT: tumor burden (T/N stage) emerged as a universal risk factor across molecular subtypes. Survival sequential analysis highlights subtype-specific surveillance priorities: intensified monitoring within 3 years for TNBC, focused follow-up at 7-8 years for HER2-positive subtype, and extended tracking for Luminal subtypes. Both nomograms and the RSF model demonstrated robust predictive performance, providing theoretical and practical tools for precision prognosis management in breast cancer.

背景:一部分在新辅助治疗(NAT)后达到病理完全缓解(pCR)的乳腺癌患者仍然经历较差的预后,包括复发、转移和死亡。本研究旨在确定pCR患者不良结局的危险因素,构建预测模型,阐明分子亚型特异性预后决定因素,探讨不同亚型患者死亡和进展事件的高峰。方法:接受NAT治疗并在SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results)数据库中获得pCR结果的女性患者加入本研究。本研究旨在通过Cox回归分析,建立诺图和随机生存森林(RSF)机器学习模型来预测pCR患者的预后,明确总生存期(OS)和无事件生存期(EFS)的独立预后因素。进行亚组分析以澄清分子亚型异质性,并进行生存序列分析以确定生存和进展事件峰值。结果:基于SEER数据的分析发现,年龄、T分期、N分期、分子亚型、组织学肿瘤类型、手术入路和组织学分级是OS的独立预测因素[一致性指数(C-index) =0.723;3年曲线下面积(AUC) =0.707],而EFS的预测因子包括年龄、T分期、N分期、分子亚型、组织学肿瘤类型和肿瘤分级(C-index =0.682, 3年AUC =0.690)。OS和EFS图c指数分别为0.723(3年AUC =0.711)和0.682(3年AUC =0.691)。RSF模型的死亡风险c指数为0.721(3年AUC =0.73)。预后因素因分子亚型而异,但T/N分期是一个共同的决定因素。死亡事件的生存顺序峰值出现在36个月[三阴性乳腺癌(TNBC)]、114个月(Luminal)和97个月[人表皮生长因子受体2 (HER2)阳性亚型],而进展事件的峰值出现在111个月(TNBC)、114个月(Luminal)和84个月(HER2阳性亚型)。结论:本研究系统揭示了影响pCR患者接受NAT预后的关键临床病理因素:肿瘤负荷(T/N分期)成为跨分子亚型的普遍危险因素。生存序列分析强调了针对亚型的监测重点:加强对TNBC的3年内监测,对her2阳性亚型进行7-8年的重点随访,并延长对Luminal亚型的跟踪。nomogram和RSF模型均表现出稳健的预测性能,为乳腺癌的精确预后管理提供了理论和实践工具。
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引用次数: 0
A warning of a rare complication-delayed tracheal rupture after thyroidectomy: a report of three cases. 甲状腺切除术后罕见并发症迟发性气管破裂的警告:附三例报告。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-11-30 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-304
Yuhan Jiang, Lin Hu, Xueyun Zhao, Hao Gong, Yi Yang, Tianyuchen Jiang, Anping Su

Background: Thyroidectomy is a primary treatment for thyroid diseases, with low mortality but a 3-5% complication rate. Delayed tracheal rupture, though rare, is a life-threatening complication causing severe respiratory compromise and mediastinal infections. This case report of three post-thyroidectomy delayed tracheal ruptures shares clinical experiences to improve recognition, management, and preventive strategies.

Case descriptions: Case 1: A 47-year-old male presented on postoperative day (POD) 5 with dyspnea and subcutaneous emphysema. Computed tomography (CT) confirmed tracheal wall disruption, which was managed surgically with muscle flap packing and prolonged drainage. Case 2: A 53-year-old female developed an irritating cough on POD 9. Imaging revealed tracheal cartilage defects, which were repaired via rotational muscle flap. Case 3: A 54-year-old female experienced rapid-onset stridor and septic shock on POD 2. Despite repeated interventions (thoracostomy, intensive care, and anti-infective therapy), she developed progressive pneumomediastinum and two tracheal fistulae, ultimately requiring surgical re-exploration and prolonged ventilator support. All cases required multidisciplinary management, with varying recovery timelines and outcomes.

Conclusions: Delayed tracheal necrosis carries significant morbidity and mortality risks. Prevention hinges on meticulous preoperative evaluation, intraoperative avoidance of tracheal vascular compromise and thermal injury, and heightened postoperative vigilance for warning signs like dyspnea or subcutaneous emphysema. Management should be tailored to severity, ranging from conservative measures to urgent surgical repair. Early multidisciplinary intervention, including aggressive infection control and airway stabilization, is critical to optimize outcomes in this high-stakes complication.

背景:甲状腺切除术是甲状腺疾病的主要治疗方法,死亡率低,但并发症发生率为3-5%。延迟性气管破裂虽然罕见,但却是危及生命的并发症,可引起严重的呼吸系统损伤和纵隔感染。本文报告三例甲状腺切除术后迟发性气管破裂,分享临床经验,以提高识别、管理和预防策略。病例描述:病例1:47岁男性,术后第5天出现呼吸困难和皮下肺气肿。计算机断层扫描(CT)证实气管壁破裂,手术处理肌肉瓣填塞和延长引流时间。病例2:一名53岁女性在POD 9上出现刺激性咳嗽。影像学显示气管软骨缺损,经旋转肌瓣修复。病例3:一名54岁女性在POD 2上经历了快速发作的喘鸣和感染性休克。尽管多次干预(开胸术、重症监护和抗感染治疗),她仍出现了进行性纵隔气肿和两个气管瘘,最终需要再次手术探查和延长呼吸机支持时间。所有病例都需要多学科管理,恢复时间和结果各不相同。结论:延迟性气管坏死具有显著的发病率和死亡率风险。预防关键在于术前细致的评估,术中避免气管血管损伤和热损伤,术后对呼吸困难或皮下肺气肿等警示信号提高警惕。治疗应根据严重程度量身定制,从保守措施到紧急手术修复。早期多学科干预,包括积极的感染控制和气道稳定,对于优化这一高风险并发症的预后至关重要。
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Gland surgery
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