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Comparable long-term survival outcomes after lobectomy versus total thyroidectomy treatment of minimal extrathyroidal extension differentiated thyroid cancer patients. 小叶切除术与全甲状腺切除术治疗甲状腺外展分化癌患者的长期生存结果比较。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-aw-507
Weina Song, Xinying Liu, Ying Zhou, Maihuan Wang

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients (tumor size ≤4 cm) with minimal extrathyroidal extension (MEE), which was used to be classified as T3 disease, now are classified as T1/T2 disease according to the largest tumor size. However, few studies explored the survival difference between DTC patients with MEE who received lobectomy or total thyroidectomy treatment. We aimed to compare the long-term survival rate of DTC patients with MEE after total thyroidectomy and lobectomy by using the national cancer registration data.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to examine the long-term survival outcomes after lobectomy versus total thyroidectomy treatment of DTC patients with MEE using the univariate and multivariate survival analysis.

Results: Of 1,889 included DTC patients with MEE, 113 patients (6.0%) received lobectomy and 1,776 patients (94.0%) received total thyroidectomy. DTC patients with MEE who underwent lobectomy experienced a similar cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate compared with those who underwent total thyroidectomy (10-year CSS rate: 99.1% vs. 98.8%, P=0.99). Considering deaths not related to thyroid cancer, the 10-year cumulative incidence of cancer-related death was 0.9% for DTC patients with MEE who underwent lobectomy and 1.2% for those who received total thyroidectomy (P=0.99). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, DTC patients with MEE who received lobectomy experienced a similar risk of death compared to those who underwent total thyroidectomy in both the multivariate Cox regression model [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45-8.80; P=0.36] and the multivariate competing risk regression model [adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR), 1.99; 95% CI: 0.44-8.89; P=0.37].

Conclusions: pT1/pT2 DTC patients with MEE who underwent lobectomy or total thyroidectomy have excellent comparable survival outcomes, which supports the increased use of lobectomy in the treatment of these patients.

背景:分化型甲状腺癌(DTC)患者(肿瘤大小≤4 cm)伴有最小的甲状腺外延伸(MEE),过去被划分为T3疾病,现在根据肿瘤最大大小划分为T1/T2疾病。然而,很少有研究探讨接受肺叶切除术或甲状腺全切除术治疗的DTC合并MEE患者的生存差异。我们的目的是通过使用国家癌症登记数据来比较甲状腺全切除术和肺叶切除术后DTC合并MEE患者的长期生存率。方法:我们采用单因素和多因素生存分析,对伴有MEE的DTC患者进行肺叶切除术和甲状腺全切除术治疗后的长期生存结果进行回顾性队列分析。结果:1,889例合并MEE的DTC患者中,113例(6.0%)行肺叶切除术,1,776例(94.0%)行甲状腺全切除术。与接受甲状腺全切除术的患者相比,接受肺叶切除术的DTC MEE患者的癌症特异性生存率(CSS)相似(10年CSS率:99.1%对98.8%,P=0.99)。考虑到与甲状腺癌无关的死亡,接受肺叶切除术的DTC合并MEE患者的10年累积癌症相关死亡发生率为0.9%,接受甲状腺全切除术的患者为1.2% (P=0.99)。在校正了潜在的混杂因素后,在多因素Cox回归模型中,接受肺叶切除术的DTC MEE患者与接受甲状腺全切除术的患者相比,死亡风险相似[校正风险比(HR), 1.99;95%置信区间(CI): 0.45-8.80;P=0.36]和多元竞争风险回归模型[调整子分布风险比(SHR), 1.99;95% ci: 0.44-8.89;P = 0.37)。结论:经肺叶切除术或甲状腺全切除术的pT1/pT2 DTC合并MEE患者具有良好的可比生存结果,这支持在这些患者的治疗中增加使用肺叶切除术。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal extent of thyroidectomy in clinically node-negative unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma >1 cm and ≤4 cm. 临床淋巴结阴性单侧甲状腺乳头状癌的最佳切除范围为bb0 ~ 1cm及≤4cm。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-1-561
Seong Man Hong, Chang Myeon Song, Yong Bae Ji, Shinje Moon, Jung Hwan Park, Kyung Tae

Background: The optimal extent of thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) measuring >1 cm and ≤4 cm remains a subject of debate. This study aimed to determine the optimal surgical extent for clinically node-negative (cN0) unilateral PTC measuring >1 cm and ≤4 cm and to identify factors associated with recurrence risk.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 403 patients with unilateral cN0 PTC measuring 11-40 mm. Propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis was performed using five covariates including age, sex, tumor size, central neck dissection, and follow-up duration. Patients were stratified by tumor size (11-20 vs. 21-40 mm), degree of extrathyroidal extension (ETE) (none, minimal, and invasion into the strap muscle), and surgical extent (lobectomy vs. total thyroidectomy). Recurrence and survival outcomes were compared.

Results: In the baseline cohorts, among the 403 patients, 304 had 11-20 mm tumors, and 99 had 21-40 mm PTC. Total thyroidectomy was performed in 65.3% of cases. Rates of minimal ETE and strap muscle invasion were 41.4% and 8.2%, respectively. Recurrence rates did not differ significantly by tumor size, ETE status (except strap muscle invasion), or surgical extent. Strap muscle invasion independently predicted recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) =6.380, P=0.01] and was associated with poorer disease-free survival. After PSM, 88 pairs of patients were generated in the lobectomy and total thyroidectomy groups. In the PSM cohort, the recurrence rate did not differ between the two groups. However, the overall complication rate was significantly higher in the total thyroidectomy group (49.5% vs. 24.8%, P=0.009), largely driven by a higher rate of transient hypoparathyroidism (39.1% vs. 7.6%, P<0.001).

Conclusions: In patients with unilateral cN0 PTC measuring 11-40 mm, lobectomy may serve as an appropriate primary surgical option, providing disease control comparable to total thyroidectomy while reducing procedure-related complications, except in those with strap muscle invasion.

背景:甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)的最佳切除范围为bbb1cm和≤4cm仍然是一个有争议的主题。本研究旨在确定临床淋巴结阴性(cN0)单侧PTC的最佳手术范围,测量bbb1cm和≤4cm,并确定与复发风险相关的因素。方法:对403例11 ~ 40mm单侧cN0 PTC患者进行回顾性分析。使用年龄、性别、肿瘤大小、中枢性颈部清扫、随访时间等5个协变量进行倾向评分匹配(PSM)分析。患者根据肿瘤大小(11-20 mm vs 21-40 mm)、甲状腺外扩张程度(无、极小和侵犯带肌)和手术范围(肺叶切除术vs甲状腺全切除术)进行分层。比较复发率和生存率。结果:在基线队列中,403例患者中,304例肿瘤为11-20 mm, 99例肿瘤为21-40 mm。65.3%的病例行甲状腺全切除术。最小te和带肌侵犯率分别为41.4%和8.2%。复发率与肿瘤大小、ETE状态(带状肌侵犯除外)或手术范围无显著差异。带状肌侵犯独立预测复发[危险比(HR) =6.380, P=0.01],并与较差的无病生存相关。经PSM后,肺叶切除术组和甲状腺全切除术组共产生88对患者。在PSM队列中,两组的复发率没有差异。然而,甲状腺全切除术组的总并发症发生率明显较高(49.5% vs. 24.8%, P=0.009),主要是由于短暂性甲状旁腺功能减退的发生率较高(39.1% vs. 7.6%)。结论:在单侧cN0 PTC为11-40 mm的患者中,肺叶切除术可作为适当的主要手术选择,提供与甲状腺全切除术相当的疾病控制,同时减少手术相关并发症,带状肌侵犯患者除外。
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引用次数: 0
Should diabetes be considered for curative surgery in primary hyperparathyroidism? 原发性甲状旁腺功能亢进症是否应考虑糖尿病手术治疗?
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-1-550
Justin Bauzon, Judy Jin, Gustavo Romero-Velez
{"title":"Should diabetes be considered for curative surgery in primary hyperparathyroidism?","authors":"Justin Bauzon, Judy Jin, Gustavo Romero-Velez","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-1-550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21037/gs-2025-1-550","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"15 2","pages":"34"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12968853/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147432430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development and validation of explainable machine learning models for the prediction of survival in patients with M1 breast cancer. 用于预测M1乳腺癌患者生存的可解释机器学习模型的开发和验证。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-350
Long Jin, Qifan Zhao, Shenbo Fu, Zheng Chao, Fei Cao, Jie Wu, Dede Ma, Xulong Zhu, Yuan Zhang

Background: The prognosis of patients with metastatic (M1) breast cancer is controversial, and the prognostic value of local therapy has not been well established. We aimed to develop and validate explainable machine learning (ML)-based survival models to predict overall survival (OS) in this population.

Methods: We retrospectively identified 10,214 female patients with histologically confirmed M1 breast cancer diagnosed between January 2013 and December 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database, each with a single malignant lesion. Patients with ambiguous or incomplete metastasis data were excluded. Candidate predictors included age; sex; laterality; American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor, Node, and Metastasis stage; surgery of the primary site; breast subtype; estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor status; marital status; radiotherapy; chemotherapy; tumor grade; histology; and metastasis to the bone, brain, liver, and lung. Two time-to-OS prediction models-a neural network and a Cox proportional hazards model-were trained, internally validated, and externally tested in a cohort of 100 patients with M1 breast cancer from China. Model interpretability was assessed through global and individual feature importance analyses.

Results: In total, 10,314 patients were enrolled in the study. The median follow-up time was 42 months in the training dataset and 36 months in the test dataset. The deep learning network demonstrated greater stability and accuracy than did the Cox proportional hazards model in predicting patient survival, both on the internal test dataset (concordance index: 0.771 vs. 0.632) and in the external validation (concordance index: 0.782 and 0.650). Several important prognostic factors were identified by the deep learning model, including breast subtype, metastatic site, and surgery status. Surgery was associated with improved OS in patients with bone metastases selected after propensity score matching, with 5-year OS rates of 76.9% and 27.2% in the surgery and nonsurgery groups, respectively (P=0.001).

Conclusions: We developed and externally validated ML models that accurately predict survival in patients with M1 breast cancer. Breast subtype, metastatic site, and surgery status were the most important factors for survival prediction in this population. Patients with non-triple-negative breast cancer and metastasis to the bone may benefit from surgery, while those with metastasis to the brain, lung, or liver may not.

背景:转移性(M1)乳腺癌患者的预后存在争议,局部治疗的预后价值尚未得到很好的确立。我们的目标是开发和验证可解释的基于机器学习(ML)的生存模型,以预测该人群的总生存(OS)。方法:我们回顾性地从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中确定了2013年1月至2018年12月诊断的10,214例组织学证实的M1乳腺癌女性患者,每位患者均有一个恶性病变。排除转移资料不明确或不完整的患者。候选预测因素包括年龄;性;一侧;美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)肿瘤、淋巴结和转移阶段;原发部位手术;乳腺癌亚型;雌激素受体和孕激素受体状态;婚姻状况;放射治疗;化疗;肿瘤年级;组织学;转移到骨头,大脑,肝脏和肺部。两种时间到生存期的预测模型——神经网络和Cox比例风险模型——在来自中国的100例M1乳腺癌患者中进行了训练、内部验证和外部测试。通过整体和个体特征重要性分析来评估模型的可解释性。结果:共有10314例患者入组研究。训练数据集中的中位随访时间为42个月,测试数据集中的中位随访时间为36个月。无论是在内部测试数据集(一致性指数:0.771 vs. 0.632)还是在外部验证(一致性指数:0.782和0.650)上,深度学习网络在预测患者生存方面都表现出比Cox比例风险模型更高的稳定性和准确性。通过深度学习模型确定了几个重要的预后因素,包括乳房亚型、转移部位和手术状态。在倾向评分匹配后选择的骨转移患者中,手术与改善的OS相关,手术组和非手术组的5年OS率分别为76.9%和27.2% (P=0.001)。结论:我们开发并外部验证了能够准确预测M1乳腺癌患者生存的ML模型。乳腺癌亚型、转移部位和手术状态是预测该人群生存的最重要因素。非三阴性乳腺癌和骨转移的患者可能从手术中受益,而那些转移到脑、肺或肝脏的患者可能不会。
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引用次数: 0
Pancreatic anastomotic technique during pancreaticoduodenectomy: does it boil down to surgeon preference? 胰十二指肠切除术中的胰吻合技术:是否归结为外科医生的偏好?
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-aw-508
Edoardo Manca, Harish Lavu, Avinoam Nevler
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引用次数: 0
Prediction model of lateral cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma based on SEER database. 基于SEER数据库的甲状腺乳头状癌侧颈淋巴结转移预测模型。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-aw-472
Yu Qiu, Zedui Fang, Qiang Shen

Background: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the predominant form of thyroid cancer and lymph node metastasis (LNM) significantly impacts patient prognosis. Preoperatively identifying lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) presents significant challenges, as current diagnostic techniques, such as ultrasonography, have limited sensitivity and precision. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for LLNM in patients with PTC, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and external validation cohorts.

Methods: Data from 18,342 patients with PTC diagnosed from 2016 to 2020 were retrieved from the SEER database. The patients were arbitrarily categorized into training (n=12,839) and validation (n=5,503) cohorts. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the independent risk factors for LLNM. A predictive nomogram was developed based on these factors, and its accuracy was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Five independent predictors of LLNM were identified: sex, age, race, tumor (T) stage, and metastasis (M) stage. The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.715 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.706-0.724] in the training cohort and 0.707 (95% CI: 0.693-0.720) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves indicated good agreement between the predicted and actual outcomes, while DCA confirmed the clinical applicability of the model across various risk thresholds.

Conclusions: This study successfully developed a predictive model for LLNM in patients with PTC by integrating demographic and clinicopathological indicators. This model demonstrates significant predictive precision and practical clinical use, assisting medical professionals in identifying high-risk patients and optimizing surgical choices. Further studies incorporating more variables are warranted to improve the diagnostic accuracy of the model.

背景:甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)是甲状腺癌的主要形式,淋巴结转移(LNM)显著影响患者预后。术前识别外侧淋巴结转移(LLNM)提出了重大挑战,因为目前的诊断技术,如超声检查,具有有限的灵敏度和精度。本研究旨在利用来自监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库和外部验证队列的数据,开发和验证PTC患者LLNM的预测模型。方法:从SEER数据库中检索2016年至2020年诊断为PTC的18,342例患者的数据。患者被随机分为训练组(n= 12839)和验证组(n= 5503)。进行单因素和多因素logistic回归分析,以确定LLNM的独立危险因素。基于这些因素建立预测nomogram,并通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校正图和决策曲线分析(DCA)对其准确性进行评估。结果:确定了LLNM的五个独立预测因素:性别、年龄、种族、肿瘤(T)分期和转移(M)分期。nomogram显示出较强的预测能力,训练队列的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.715[95%置信区间(CI): 0.706-0.724],验证队列的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.707 (95% CI: 0.693-0.720)。校正曲线表明预测结果与实际结果吻合良好,而DCA证实了该模型在不同风险阈值下的临床适用性。结论:本研究通过综合人口学和临床病理指标,成功建立了PTC患者LLNM的预测模型。该模型显示了显著的预测精度和实际临床应用,帮助医疗专业人员识别高危患者和优化手术选择。进一步的研究纳入更多的变量是必要的,以提高模型的诊断准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Biological features and locoregional recurrence in early-onset breast cancer: insights from the Young Women's Breast Cancer Study and the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Sporadic and Hereditary Breast Cancer. 早发性乳腺癌的生物学特征和局部复发:来自年轻女性乳腺癌研究和散发性和遗传性乳腺癌预后的前瞻性研究的见解
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-1-578
Wilson Cheah, Robert Stuart Kemp, Ellen Roxane Copson, Ramsey Ian Cutress
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引用次数: 0
Illuminating the future: assessing probe-based near-infrared autofluorescence for parathyroid detection in endocrine surgery. 照亮未来:评估探针为基础的近红外自身荧光检测甲状旁腺在内分泌手术。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-aw-540
Valentine Luzuy-Guarnero, Frédéric Triponez
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引用次数: 0
Enhanced recovery after surgery protocols in adrenal surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 肾上腺手术后增强恢复方案:系统回顾和荟萃分析。
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-aw-513
Giulio Lelli, Angelo Iossa, Alessandra Micalizzi, Manfredi Bruno Sequi, Alessia Fassari, Sara Giovampietro, Francesco De Angelis, Antonio Carbone, Claudio Letizia, Luigi Petramala, Paolo Sapienza, Giuseppe Cavallaro

Background: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocols aim to attenuate the physiological stress of surgery and accelerate postoperative recovery. While widely adopted in several surgical fields, their role in adrenal surgery remains less defined. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the impact of ERAS protocols on perioperative outcomes in patients undergoing adrenalectomy compared with conventional care.

Methods: Eligible studies included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective cohorts, and retrospective comparative analyses involving adult patients undergoing adrenalectomy managed with ERAS versus standard care. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and the Cochrane Library, without time restrictions, with the last search performed in August 2025. Primary outcomes were postoperative length of stay (LOS), pain, and complication rates. Secondary outcomes included functional recovery, gastrointestinal recovery, and hospital costs. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using the RoB 2.0 tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for non-randomized studies. Quantitative synthesis was performed using a random-effects meta-analysis, with standardized mean differences (SMDs) and risk ratios used to summarize continuous and dichotomous outcomes, respectively.

Results: Six comparative studies, including a total of 429 patients, met the inclusion criteria. ERAS protocols were associated with a significant reduction in postoperative LOS, postoperative complications, and pain scores. ERAS pathways also resulted in faster functional recovery, including earlier mobilization, urinary catheter removal, and gastrointestinal recovery, without an increase in major complications. Although individual studies reported cost savings with ERAS implementation, pooled analysis did not demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in hospitalization costs.

Conclusions: ERAS protocols in adrenalectomy are associated with improved perioperative outcomes, faster recovery, and reduced postoperative morbidity without compromising safety. However, the available evidence is limited by heterogeneity and methodological quality. Further high-quality prospective studies are needed to develop and validate standardized ERAS guidelines tailored specifically to adrenal surgery.

背景:ERAS (Enhanced recovery after surgery)方案旨在减轻手术的生理应激,加速术后恢复。虽然在几个外科领域被广泛采用,但它们在肾上腺外科中的作用仍然不太明确。本系统综述和荟萃分析的目的是评估ERAS方案与常规护理相比对肾上腺切除术患者围手术期预后的影响。方法:符合条件的研究包括随机对照试验(rct)、前瞻性队列和回顾性比较分析,涉及接受肾上腺切除术的成人患者,ERAS管理与标准治疗。在PubMed、Scopus、ScienceDirect和Cochrane图书馆进行了系统的文献检索,没有时间限制,最后一次检索是在2025年8月。主要结局是术后住院时间(LOS)、疼痛和并发症发生率。次要结局包括功能恢复、胃肠恢复和住院费用。对随机对照试验使用RoB 2.0工具评估偏倚风险,对非随机研究使用ROBINS-I工具评估偏倚风险。采用随机效应荟萃分析进行定量综合,标准化平均差异(SMDs)和风险比分别用于总结连续和二分类结果。结果:6项比较研究共429例患者符合纳入标准。ERAS方案与术后LOS、术后并发症和疼痛评分显著降低相关。ERAS通路也导致了更快的功能恢复,包括更早的活动、尿导管拔除和胃肠道恢复,而没有增加主要并发症。虽然个别研究报告了ERAS的实施节省了成本,但综合分析并没有显示住院费用的统计学显著降低。结论:肾上腺切除术ERAS方案可改善围手术期预后,更快恢复,降低术后发病率,且不影响安全性。然而,现有证据受到异质性和方法质量的限制。需要进一步的高质量前瞻性研究来制定和验证专门针对肾上腺手术的标准化ERAS指南。
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引用次数: 0
Development and validation of a survival-predicting nomogram for HER2-negative T1-3N0-1 breast cancer treated with breast-conserving surgery: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database analysis. her2阴性T1-3N0-1乳腺癌保乳手术生存预测图的开发和验证:一项监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库分析
IF 1.6 3区 医学 Q3 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-28 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-301
Sirui Zhu, Wei Lu, Ke Zhang, Huaiyu Yang, Chenxuan Yang, Changyuan Guo, Lei Guo, Xuemin Xue, Zhongzhao Wang, Lixue Xuan

Background: Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early-stage breast cancer (BC) exhibits significant heterogeneity, complicating personalized treatment decisions after breast-conserving surgery (BCS). Robust tools integrating baseline risk, treatment response, and sociodemographic factors are needed to optimize survival while minimizing unnecessary toxicity. This study aimed to create a clinical decision-support tool that leverages these multifaceted factors to optimize survival outcomes and minimize treatment toxicity for these patients.

Methods: Utilizing population-level data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program (cases from 2010 to 2016; n=8,384), we constructed and validated prognostic nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in a cohort of HER2-negative, T1-3N0-1 BC patients who underwent BCS followed by radiotherapy. Key prognostic variables were identified through multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The performance of the nomograms was rigorously assessed using the concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, risk stratification was performed by applying optimal cut-off points determined via X-tile software.

Results: Key independent predictors included tumor grade, tumor (T) stage, estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status, marital status, and single primary tumor status. Nomograms significantly outperformed American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th staging (OS C-index: 0.69 vs. 0.63; CSS C-index: 0.74 vs. 0.63). Patients were stratified into low- (33%), middle-, and high-risk (27%) groups. Chemotherapy provided no OS/CSS benefit in low-risk patients but substantially improved outcomes in high-risk patients (P<0.001). Achieving a complete response (CR) following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) was associated with superior survival outcomes, particularly among high-risk patients, whereas a non-complete response (NCR) was linked to worse survival.

Conclusions: We developed the first validated nomograms integrating tumor biology, treatment response, and social factors to optimize HER2-negative BC management. Identifying 'single primary tumor' status as a novel prognostic indicator point to novel tumorigenesis mechanisms. Critically, our findings enable actionable strategies: low-risk patients (33%) may be candidates for avoiding chemotherapy toxicity, while high-risk patients (27%) are potential candidates for more intensive treatment strategies. Patients who fail to achieve a CR should be considered for enrollment in adjuvant trials with novel agents. Adding prospective biomarkers will further refine these precision approaches.

背景:人表皮生长因子受体2 (HER2)阴性的早期乳腺癌(BC)表现出显著的异质性,使保乳手术(BCS)后的个性化治疗决策复杂化。需要整合基线风险、治疗反应和社会人口因素的强大工具来优化生存率,同时最大限度地减少不必要的毒性。本研究旨在创建一种临床决策支持工具,利用这些多方面的因素来优化这些患者的生存结果并最大限度地减少治疗毒性。方法:利用来自监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)项目的人群水平数据(2010年至2016年的病例;n=8,384例),我们构建并验证了her2阴性、T1-3N0-1 BC患者接受BCS后放疗的总生存期(OS)和癌症特异性生存期(CSS)的预后图。通过多变量Cox比例风险回归确定关键预后变量。使用一致性指数(C-index)、随时间变化的受试者工作特征(ROC)分析、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)严格评估nomogram的性能。最后,应用X-tile软件确定的最佳截止点进行风险分层。结果:肿瘤分级、肿瘤(T)分期、雌激素受体(ER)/孕激素受体(PR)状态、婚姻状况、单一原发肿瘤状态为主要独立预测因素。nomogram表现明显优于美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)第七期(OS C-index: 0.69 vs. 0.63; CSS C-index: 0.74 vs. 0.63)。患者被分为低危(33%)、中危(27%)组。化疗在低风险患者中没有提供OS/CSS益处,但在高风险患者中却显著改善了预后(结论:我们开发了第一个整合肿瘤生物学、治疗反应和社会因素的有效nomogram,以优化her2阴性BC的管理。确定“单一原发肿瘤”状态作为一种新的预后指标,指出新的肿瘤发生机制。至关重要的是,我们的研究结果提供了可行的策略:低风险患者(33%)可能是避免化疗毒性的候选人,而高风险患者(27%)是更强化治疗策略的潜在候选人。未能达到CR的患者应考虑加入新药物辅助试验。添加前瞻性生物标志物将进一步完善这些精确方法。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Gland surgery
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