Background: The lung is the most vulnerable site for distant thyroid cancer (TC) metastasis, and individuals who have TC lung metastases (TCLMs) succumb to the illness shortly after diagnosis. This study aims to identify the risk factors of early mortality in TCLM patients and develop a reliable and accurate prediction model. An accurate nomogram for predicting early mortality (survival time ≤3 months) in TCLM patients is necessary.
Methods: Between 2010 and 2015, information gathered from TCLM patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to develop and internally evaluate a prediction model. External validation was performed using data acquired from a Chinese population. All-cause early death (ACED) encompassed mortality from any cause within this period, whereas cancer-specific early death (CSED) specifically referred to deaths explicitly attributed to TC or its complications on the death certificate. The risk factors for CSED and ACED were identified independently using univariate and multivariable logistic regressions. The nomogram's accuracy was confirmed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and calibration curves were used to evaluate the consistency between the model predictions and the actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the model's clinical applicability.
Results: This study included 945 patients, 636 (67.3%) of whom died shortly after diagnosis and 335 (35.4%) of whom died from TCLM-related complications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses independently identified six predictors for ACED and seven predictors for CSED. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the nomogram for predicting ACED and CSED were 0.912 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.889-0.931] and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.691-0.776), respectively. Combined with the results of the calibration curve analysis, these findings demonstrated that the nomograms effectively predicted the risk of early death in both the internal and external sets. DCA revealed that the nomograms provide considerable clinical advantages.
Conclusions: In the present study, nomograms were developed to reliably predict the risk of early mortality in individuals with TCLM. These tools can assist physicians in identifying high-risk patients and implementing tailored treatment plans as soon as possible.
背景:肺是远处甲状腺癌(TC)转移的最易感部位,TC肺转移(TCLMs)的个体在诊断后不久就死于这种疾病。本研究旨在识别TCLM患者早期死亡的危险因素,建立可靠、准确的预测模型。预测TCLM患者早期死亡(生存时间≤3个月)的准确nomogram是必要的。方法:2010年至2015年,利用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中收集的TCLM患者信息,开发并内部评估预测模型。使用从中国人群中获得的数据进行外部验证。全因早期死亡(ced)包括在此期间任何原因造成的死亡,而癌症特异性早期死亡(CSED)具体指死亡证明上明确归因于TC或其并发症的死亡。使用单变量和多变量logistic回归分别确定CSED和ed的危险因素。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析验证nomogram的准确性,并利用标定曲线评价模型预测结果与实际结果的一致性。采用决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型的临床适用性。结果:本研究纳入945例患者,其中636例(67.3%)在诊断后不久死亡,335例(35.4%)死于tclm相关并发症。多变量逻辑回归分析独立地确定了6个预测因素,以及7个预测因素。预测ace和CSED的nomogram curve under area (auc)分别为0.912[95%可信区间(CI) 0.889 ~ 0.931]和0.732 (95% CI: 0.691 ~ 0.776)。结合校准曲线分析的结果,这些发现表明,无论对内组还是对外组,nomogram都能有效地预测早期死亡的风险。DCA显示,图提供了相当大的临床优势。结论:在目前的研究中,nomogram可以可靠地预测TCLM患者的早期死亡风险。这些工具可以帮助医生识别高危患者,并尽快实施量身定制的治疗计划。
{"title":"Risk factors and predictive nomograms for early mortality in patients with thyroid cancer lung metastasis based on the SEER database and a Chinese population study.","authors":"Rui Lv, Yuting Yuan, Jianhua Shi, Jinyu Li, Wei Song, Jiangyang Wan, Chen Zhang, Cheng Chen, Linlin Zhen, Qiang Li","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-328","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-328","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The lung is the most vulnerable site for distant thyroid cancer (TC) metastasis, and individuals who have TC lung metastases (TCLMs) succumb to the illness shortly after diagnosis. This study aims to identify the risk factors of early mortality in TCLM patients and develop a reliable and accurate prediction model. An accurate nomogram for predicting early mortality (survival time ≤3 months) in TCLM patients is necessary.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Between 2010 and 2015, information gathered from TCLM patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to develop and internally evaluate a prediction model. External validation was performed using data acquired from a Chinese population. All-cause early death (ACED) encompassed mortality from any cause within this period, whereas cancer-specific early death (CSED) specifically referred to deaths explicitly attributed to TC or its complications on the death certificate. The risk factors for CSED and ACED were identified independently using univariate and multivariable logistic regressions. The nomogram's accuracy was confirmed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and calibration curves were used to evaluate the consistency between the model predictions and the actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the model's clinical applicability.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This study included 945 patients, 636 (67.3%) of whom died shortly after diagnosis and 335 (35.4%) of whom died from TCLM-related complications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses independently identified six predictors for ACED and seven predictors for CSED. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the nomogram for predicting ACED and CSED were 0.912 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.889-0.931] and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.691-0.776), respectively. Combined with the results of the calibration curve analysis, these findings demonstrated that the nomograms effectively predicted the risk of early death in both the internal and external sets. DCA revealed that the nomograms provide considerable clinical advantages.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In the present study, nomograms were developed to reliably predict the risk of early mortality in individuals with TCLM. These tools can assist physicians in identifying high-risk patients and implementing tailored treatment plans as soon as possible.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 12","pages":"2456-2480"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12771145/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145917547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-31Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-378
Zihan Chen, Jiesheng Su, Naishi Li, Weibo Xia
Background: It has been reported that medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) with distant metastasis may result in poor prognosis. The aim of the study was to estimate the risk of distant metastasis in patients with MTC based on metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes, more than just according to the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.
Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 744 participants from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) STAT 8.4.3 database from 2018 to 2022. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the predictive value of the condition of positive regional lymph nodes for identifying distant metastasis. The estimates are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Results: In patients with MTC, the 8th edition of the AJCC node (N) stage could traditionally predict the risk of distant metastasis, with N1a (OR 6.21; 95% CI: 1.46-42.42; P=0.03), and N1b (OR 23.20; 95% CI: 6.69-146.54; P<0.001), compared with the stage of N0. However, the upward trend was relatively more significant in the model with the number of metastatic regional lymph nodes. The number of positive regional lymph nodes could predict the risk of distant metastasis, with 1-10 (OR 9.13; 95% CI: 2.47-59.11; P=0.004), 11-20 (OR 25.72; 95% CI: 6.52-171.29; P<0.001), and >20 (OR 26.44; 95% CI: 6.50-178.95; P<0.001) metastatic regional lymph nodes, compared with no metastasis of regional lymph nodes. Similar results could be found in predicting bone metastasis. The cut-off value of metastatic regional lymph node ratio metastatic regional lymph nodes in predicting distant metastasis was 0.176. Patients with the ratio greater than cut-off value were found to have a significantly higher risk of developing distant metastasis (OR 18.24; 95% CI: 6.33-77.26; P<0.001).
Conclusions: Metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes can be effective predictors for distant metastasis in patients with MTC, which is helpful for the modification of the 8th edition of the AJCC N stage.
{"title":"Metastasis number and ratio in regional lymph nodes as predictive indicators for distant metastasis in medullary thyroid cancer: beyond American Joint Committee on Cancer nodal staging.","authors":"Zihan Chen, Jiesheng Su, Naishi Li, Weibo Xia","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-378","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-378","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>It has been reported that medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) with distant metastasis may result in poor prognosis. The aim of the study was to estimate the risk of distant metastasis in patients with MTC based on metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes, more than just according to the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This cross-sectional study involved 744 participants from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) STAT 8.4.3 database from 2018 to 2022. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the predictive value of the condition of positive regional lymph nodes for identifying distant metastasis. The estimates are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In patients with MTC, the 8th edition of the AJCC node (N) stage could traditionally predict the risk of distant metastasis, with N1a (OR 6.21; 95% CI: 1.46-42.42; P=0.03), and N1b (OR 23.20; 95% CI: 6.69-146.54; P<0.001), compared with the stage of N0. However, the upward trend was relatively more significant in the model with the number of metastatic regional lymph nodes. The number of positive regional lymph nodes could predict the risk of distant metastasis, with 1-10 (OR 9.13; 95% CI: 2.47-59.11; P=0.004), 11-20 (OR 25.72; 95% CI: 6.52-171.29; P<0.001), and >20 (OR 26.44; 95% CI: 6.50-178.95; P<0.001) metastatic regional lymph nodes, compared with no metastasis of regional lymph nodes. Similar results could be found in predicting bone metastasis. The cut-off value of metastatic regional lymph node ratio metastatic regional lymph nodes in predicting distant metastasis was 0.176. Patients with the ratio greater than cut-off value were found to have a significantly higher risk of developing distant metastasis (OR 18.24; 95% CI: 6.33-77.26; P<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Metastasis number and ratio of regional lymph nodes can be effective predictors for distant metastasis in patients with MTC, which is helpful for the modification of the 8th edition of the AJCC N stage.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 12","pages":"2497-2508"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12771182/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145917616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-31Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025b-4
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.21037/gs-23-493.].
[更正文章DOI: 10.21037/gs-23-493]。
{"title":"Erratum: <i>CCNB1</i> may as a biomarker for the adipogenic differentiation of adipose-derived stem cells in the postoperative fat transplantation of breast cancer.","authors":"","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025b-4","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025b-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article DOI: 10.21037/gs-23-493.].</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 12","pages":"2535-2536"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12771180/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145917576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-30Epub Date: 2025-11-25DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-319
Shiying Yang, Chun Huang, Jing Zhou, Zhuolin Dai, Xinliang Su
Background: Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) are significant factors influencing the prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, their relationship remains controversial. This study explores the connection between ETE and LNM by using propensity score matching (PSM) to guide individualized treatment.
Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,045 PTC patients who underwent surgery between January 2023 and June 2024. PSM at a 1:1 ratio was used to balance confounding factors based on univariate and multivariate analyses to investigate the relationship between ETE and LNM.
Results: Among the 1,045 patients, 55.8% had LNM, and 16.1% had ETE. Univariate analysis showed that male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, ETE, and multifocal were associated with LNM (P<0.05). Multivariate analyses identified male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, and multifocal as independent risk factors for LNM (P<0.05). After PSM in the present data set, the difference in LNM rates between ETE and non-ETE groups did not reach statistical significance (P>0.05). Similarly, the relationship between LNM and ETE was analyzed. Univariate analysis showed that age <45 years, tumor location, tumor diameter ≥8 mm, multifocal and LNM were risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age <45 years, tumor located at the isthmus, tumor diameter ≥8 mm and LNM were independent risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). After PSM, no significant difference in ETE was found between patients with and without LNM (P>0.05).
Conclusions: In this single-center, retrospective PSM cohort, we did not observe a significant association between the extent of ETE and LNM in patients with PTC. ETE does not appear to be a reliable indicator for guiding the extent of lymph node dissection. For patients with concurrent ETE, the lymph node dissection range should be personalized.
{"title":"The relationship between the extent of extrathyroidal extension and lymph node metastasis based on propensity score matching analysis.","authors":"Shiying Yang, Chun Huang, Jing Zhou, Zhuolin Dai, Xinliang Su","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-319","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-319","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) are significant factors influencing the prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, their relationship remains controversial. This study explores the connection between ETE and LNM by using propensity score matching (PSM) to guide individualized treatment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,045 PTC patients who underwent surgery between January 2023 and June 2024. PSM at a 1:1 ratio was used to balance confounding factors based on univariate and multivariate analyses to investigate the relationship between ETE and LNM.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 1,045 patients, 55.8% had LNM, and 16.1% had ETE. Univariate analysis showed that male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, ETE, and multifocal were associated with LNM (P<0.05). Multivariate analyses identified male sex, age <45 years, tumor size ≥8 mm, and multifocal as independent risk factors for LNM (P<0.05). After PSM in the present data set, the difference in LNM rates between ETE and non-ETE groups did not reach statistical significance (P>0.05). Similarly, the relationship between LNM and ETE was analyzed. Univariate analysis showed that age <45 years, tumor location, tumor diameter ≥8 mm, multifocal and LNM were risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age <45 years, tumor located at the isthmus, tumor diameter ≥8 mm and LNM were independent risk factors for ETE (P<0.05). After PSM, no significant difference in ETE was found between patients with and without LNM (P>0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In this single-center, retrospective PSM cohort, we did not observe a significant association between the extent of ETE and LNM in patients with PTC. ETE does not appear to be a reliable indicator for guiding the extent of lymph node dissection. For patients with concurrent ETE, the lymph node dissection range should be personalized.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2258-2270"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685776/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-30Epub Date: 2025-11-21DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-385
Mariam Rizk, Kefah Mokbel
{"title":"Modern management of phyllodes tumours: closing the gap between evidence and practice.","authors":"Mariam Rizk, Kefah Mokbel","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-385","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-385","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2127-2130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685773/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Background: Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) is the most common histological subtype of breast cancer, and axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) is a pivotal factor in clinical staging, prognostic assessment, and treatment planning. This study aims to develop and validate a deep learning (DL) model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) for the prediction of ALNM in IDC patients.
Methods: This multicenter study conducted a retrospective analysis of DCE-MRI images from 520 patients diagnosed with IDC of the breast. The training and internal validation sets consisted of 411 patients from The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao, while the external testing set included 109 patients from the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Qinhuangdao. Radiomics and DL features were extracted separately from the DCE-MRI images. We evaluated five models (Clinical, Radiomics, Radiomics-Clinical, DL, DL-Clinical) using radiomics features, DL features, and clinical features. Finally, the predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC).
Results: The AUCs for the Clinical model and Radiomics model, which are machine learning models, and the DL-model, were 0.807, 0.840, and 0.865, respectively. The combined models incorporating clinical features, namely the Radiomics-Clinical and DL-Clinical models, achieved AUCs of 0.824 and 0.935, respectively. Among the five models, the DL-Clinical model demonstrated a significant advantage in predicting ALNM. Additionally, this model exhibited robust performance in both internal validation and external testing sets, with AUCs of 0.946 and 0.951, respectively.
Conclusions: The DCE-MRI-based DL-Clinical model provides a non-invasive adjunct tool for preoperative identification of ALNM in patients with breast IDC, thereby enhancing the efficacy of personalized treatment strategies and improving patient quality of life.
{"title":"Preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in breast invasive ductal carcinoma patients using a deep learning model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging: a multicenter study.","authors":"Changcong Gu, Yuqing He, Jinshi Lin, Zilong Wang, Shuai Guo, Huang Yang, Wenxi Wang, Junyi Sun, Huishu Gan, Haoxiang Li","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-365","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-365","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) is the most common histological subtype of breast cancer, and axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) is a pivotal factor in clinical staging, prognostic assessment, and treatment planning. This study aims to develop and validate a deep learning (DL) model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) for the prediction of ALNM in IDC patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This multicenter study conducted a retrospective analysis of DCE-MRI images from 520 patients diagnosed with IDC of the breast. The training and internal validation sets consisted of 411 patients from The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao, while the external testing set included 109 patients from the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Qinhuangdao. Radiomics and DL features were extracted separately from the DCE-MRI images. We evaluated five models (Clinical, Radiomics, Radiomics-Clinical, DL, DL-Clinical) using radiomics features, DL features, and clinical features. Finally, the predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The AUCs for the Clinical model and Radiomics model, which are machine learning models, and the DL-model, were 0.807, 0.840, and 0.865, respectively. The combined models incorporating clinical features, namely the Radiomics-Clinical and DL-Clinical models, achieved AUCs of 0.824 and 0.935, respectively. Among the five models, the DL-Clinical model demonstrated a significant advantage in predicting ALNM. Additionally, this model exhibited robust performance in both internal validation and external testing sets, with AUCs of 0.946 and 0.951, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The DCE-MRI-based DL-Clinical model provides a non-invasive adjunct tool for preoperative identification of ALNM in patients with breast IDC, thereby enhancing the efficacy of personalized treatment strategies and improving patient quality of life.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2288-2301"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685781/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Background: A subset of breast cancer patients who achieved pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) still experience poor outcomes, including recurrence, metastasis, and death. This study aims to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes in pCR patients, construct predictive models, elucidate molecular subtype-specific prognostic determinants, and explore the peaks of death and progression events among different subtypes.
Methods: Female patients who received NAT and achieved pCR in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled in this research. This study aims to clarify independent prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) by using Cox regression analyses as well as developing nomograms and random survival forest (RSF) machine learning model to predict prognoses of patients with pCR. Subgroup analysis was performed to clarify molecular subtype heterogeneity, and survival sequential analysis was conducted to identify survival and progression event peaks.
Results: Analyses based on SEER data identified age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, surgical approach, and histological grade as independent predictors of OS [Concordance index (C-index) =0.723; 3-year area under the curve (AUC) =0.707], while EFS predictors included age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, and grade (C-index =0.682; 3-year AUC =0.690). The C-index of OS and EFS nomograms were 0.723 (3-year AUC =0.711) and 0.682 (3-year AUC =0.691) respectively. The RSF model for mortality risk achieved a C-index of 0.721 (3-year AUC =0.73). Prognostic factors varied across molecular subtypes, though T/N stage was a common determinant. Survival sequential peaks for death events occurred at 36 months [triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC)], 114 months (Luminal), and 97 months [human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive subtype], while progression events' peaks were observed at 111 months (TNBC), 114 months (Luminal), and 84 months (HER2-positive subtype).
Conclusions: This study systematically revealed key clinicopathological factors influencing prognosis of pCR patients receiving NAT: tumor burden (T/N stage) emerged as a universal risk factor across molecular subtypes. Survival sequential analysis highlights subtype-specific surveillance priorities: intensified monitoring within 3 years for TNBC, focused follow-up at 7-8 years for HER2-positive subtype, and extended tracking for Luminal subtypes. Both nomograms and the RSF model demonstrated robust predictive performance, providing theoretical and practical tools for precision prognosis management in breast cancer.
背景:一部分在新辅助治疗(NAT)后达到病理完全缓解(pCR)的乳腺癌患者仍然经历较差的预后,包括复发、转移和死亡。本研究旨在确定pCR患者不良结局的危险因素,构建预测模型,阐明分子亚型特异性预后决定因素,探讨不同亚型患者死亡和进展事件的高峰。方法:接受NAT治疗并在SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results)数据库中获得pCR结果的女性患者加入本研究。本研究旨在通过Cox回归分析,建立诺图和随机生存森林(RSF)机器学习模型来预测pCR患者的预后,明确总生存期(OS)和无事件生存期(EFS)的独立预后因素。进行亚组分析以澄清分子亚型异质性,并进行生存序列分析以确定生存和进展事件峰值。结果:基于SEER数据的分析发现,年龄、T分期、N分期、分子亚型、组织学肿瘤类型、手术入路和组织学分级是OS的独立预测因素[一致性指数(C-index) =0.723;3年曲线下面积(AUC) =0.707],而EFS的预测因子包括年龄、T分期、N分期、分子亚型、组织学肿瘤类型和肿瘤分级(C-index =0.682, 3年AUC =0.690)。OS和EFS图c指数分别为0.723(3年AUC =0.711)和0.682(3年AUC =0.691)。RSF模型的死亡风险c指数为0.721(3年AUC =0.73)。预后因素因分子亚型而异,但T/N分期是一个共同的决定因素。死亡事件的生存顺序峰值出现在36个月[三阴性乳腺癌(TNBC)]、114个月(Luminal)和97个月[人表皮生长因子受体2 (HER2)阳性亚型],而进展事件的峰值出现在111个月(TNBC)、114个月(Luminal)和84个月(HER2阳性亚型)。结论:本研究系统揭示了影响pCR患者接受NAT预后的关键临床病理因素:肿瘤负荷(T/N分期)成为跨分子亚型的普遍危险因素。生存序列分析强调了针对亚型的监测重点:加强对TNBC的3年内监测,对her2阳性亚型进行7-8年的重点随访,并延长对Luminal亚型的跟踪。nomogram和RSF模型均表现出稳健的预测性能,为乳腺癌的精确预后管理提供了理论和实践工具。
{"title":"Identifying risk factors for poor prognosis and developing prognostic model in patients achieving pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy for breast cancer.","authors":"Xixi Lin, Shenkangle Wang, Ziyu Zhu, Zijie Guo, Mingpeng Luo, Qiong Ding, Linbo Wang, Jichun Zhou","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-181","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-181","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A subset of breast cancer patients who achieved pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) still experience poor outcomes, including recurrence, metastasis, and death. This study aims to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes in pCR patients, construct predictive models, elucidate molecular subtype-specific prognostic determinants, and explore the peaks of death and progression events among different subtypes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Female patients who received NAT and achieved pCR in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled in this research. This study aims to clarify independent prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) by using Cox regression analyses as well as developing nomograms and random survival forest (RSF) machine learning model to predict prognoses of patients with pCR. Subgroup analysis was performed to clarify molecular subtype heterogeneity, and survival sequential analysis was conducted to identify survival and progression event peaks.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Analyses based on SEER data identified age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, surgical approach, and histological grade as independent predictors of OS [Concordance index (C-index) =0.723; 3-year area under the curve (AUC) =0.707], while EFS predictors included age, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, histological tumor type, and grade (C-index =0.682; 3-year AUC =0.690). The C-index of OS and EFS nomograms were 0.723 (3-year AUC =0.711) and 0.682 (3-year AUC =0.691) respectively. The RSF model for mortality risk achieved a C-index of 0.721 (3-year AUC =0.73). Prognostic factors varied across molecular subtypes, though T/N stage was a common determinant. Survival sequential peaks for death events occurred at 36 months [triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC)], 114 months (Luminal), and 97 months [human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive subtype], while progression events' peaks were observed at 111 months (TNBC), 114 months (Luminal), and 84 months (HER2-positive subtype).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study systematically revealed key clinicopathological factors influencing prognosis of pCR patients receiving NAT: tumor burden (T/N stage) emerged as a universal risk factor across molecular subtypes. Survival sequential analysis highlights subtype-specific surveillance priorities: intensified monitoring within 3 years for TNBC, focused follow-up at 7-8 years for HER2-positive subtype, and extended tracking for Luminal subtypes. Both nomograms and the RSF model demonstrated robust predictive performance, providing theoretical and practical tools for precision prognosis management in breast cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2159-2178"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685783/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-30Epub Date: 2025-11-24DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-304
Yuhan Jiang, Lin Hu, Xueyun Zhao, Hao Gong, Yi Yang, Tianyuchen Jiang, Anping Su
Background: Thyroidectomy is a primary treatment for thyroid diseases, with low mortality but a 3-5% complication rate. Delayed tracheal rupture, though rare, is a life-threatening complication causing severe respiratory compromise and mediastinal infections. This case report of three post-thyroidectomy delayed tracheal ruptures shares clinical experiences to improve recognition, management, and preventive strategies.
Case descriptions: Case 1: A 47-year-old male presented on postoperative day (POD) 5 with dyspnea and subcutaneous emphysema. Computed tomography (CT) confirmed tracheal wall disruption, which was managed surgically with muscle flap packing and prolonged drainage. Case 2: A 53-year-old female developed an irritating cough on POD 9. Imaging revealed tracheal cartilage defects, which were repaired via rotational muscle flap. Case 3: A 54-year-old female experienced rapid-onset stridor and septic shock on POD 2. Despite repeated interventions (thoracostomy, intensive care, and anti-infective therapy), she developed progressive pneumomediastinum and two tracheal fistulae, ultimately requiring surgical re-exploration and prolonged ventilator support. All cases required multidisciplinary management, with varying recovery timelines and outcomes.
Conclusions: Delayed tracheal necrosis carries significant morbidity and mortality risks. Prevention hinges on meticulous preoperative evaluation, intraoperative avoidance of tracheal vascular compromise and thermal injury, and heightened postoperative vigilance for warning signs like dyspnea or subcutaneous emphysema. Management should be tailored to severity, ranging from conservative measures to urgent surgical repair. Early multidisciplinary intervention, including aggressive infection control and airway stabilization, is critical to optimize outcomes in this high-stakes complication.
{"title":"A warning of a rare complication-delayed tracheal rupture after thyroidectomy: a report of three cases.","authors":"Yuhan Jiang, Lin Hu, Xueyun Zhao, Hao Gong, Yi Yang, Tianyuchen Jiang, Anping Su","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-304","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-304","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Thyroidectomy is a primary treatment for thyroid diseases, with low mortality but a 3-5% complication rate. Delayed tracheal rupture, though rare, is a life-threatening complication causing severe respiratory compromise and mediastinal infections. This case report of three post-thyroidectomy delayed tracheal ruptures shares clinical experiences to improve recognition, management, and preventive strategies.</p><p><strong>Case descriptions: </strong>Case 1: A 47-year-old male presented on postoperative day (POD) 5 with dyspnea and subcutaneous emphysema. Computed tomography (CT) confirmed tracheal wall disruption, which was managed surgically with muscle flap packing and prolonged drainage. Case 2: A 53-year-old female developed an irritating cough on POD 9. Imaging revealed tracheal cartilage defects, which were repaired via rotational muscle flap. Case 3: A 54-year-old female experienced rapid-onset stridor and septic shock on POD 2. Despite repeated interventions (thoracostomy, intensive care, and anti-infective therapy), she developed progressive pneumomediastinum and two tracheal fistulae, ultimately requiring surgical re-exploration and prolonged ventilator support. All cases required multidisciplinary management, with varying recovery timelines and outcomes.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Delayed tracheal necrosis carries significant morbidity and mortality risks. Prevention hinges on meticulous preoperative evaluation, intraoperative avoidance of tracheal vascular compromise and thermal injury, and heightened postoperative vigilance for warning signs like dyspnea or subcutaneous emphysema. Management should be tailored to severity, ranging from conservative measures to urgent surgical repair. Early multidisciplinary intervention, including aggressive infection control and airway stabilization, is critical to optimize outcomes in this high-stakes complication.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2361-2367"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685785/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145721358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-30Epub Date: 2025-11-25DOI: 10.21037/gs-2025-248
Yvonne L Eaglehouse, Sarah Darmon, Michele M Gage, Craig D Shriver, Kangmin Zhu
Background: In the United States (U.S.) population, thyroid cancer incidence, aggressiveness, and survival have been shown to vary by patient age at diagnosis and biological sex. Surgery is a primary treatment for low-risk thyroid cancer and surgical outcomes can greatly influence patient outcomes and survival. It is unknown whether patients differ in postoperative outcomes of thyroid cancer surgery by age at diagnosis and sex. We aimed to study the topic in the U.S. Military Health System (MHS) to address this gap in knowledge.
Methods: We used the Military Cancer Epidemiology (MilCanEpi) database to study a cohort of patients aged 18 years and older diagnosed with T1-2N0M0 papillary thyroid cancer between 2001 and 2014 who received thyroidectomy surgery. We estimated the adjusted risk ratio (ARR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in association with patient age at diagnosis and biological sex for 30-day general and local thyroid complications and hospital readmissions using multivariable Poisson regression.
Results: The study included 2,041 patients with 2.3% experiencing a general complication, 12.1% a thyroid complication, and 13.9% a readmission within 30 days after surgery. Overall, rates of general and thyroid complications as a whole were not statistically different for patients aged 40-49 or 50 years and older relative to age 18-39 years in multivariable models. However, patients 50 years or older had a statistically lower risk of hypoparathyroidism (ARR =0.37; 95% CI: 0.19-0.73) and also lower rates of readmission (ARR =0.68; 95% CI: 0.49-0.93) compared to patients aged 18-39 years. There were no statistically significant differences in the outcomes for men compared to women.
Conclusions: In the MHS, we observed some variation in risk of complications and readmissions by patient age at diagnosis for those undergoing thyroidectomy for T1-2N0M0 papillary thyroid cancer. More research is needed to understand the factors underlying lower risk of complications among older adults, or conversely, higher risk for complications among young adult patients with papillary thyroid cancer.
{"title":"Patient age at diagnosis and biological sex in association with postoperative outcomes of thyroidectomy for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer in the U.S. Military Health System.","authors":"Yvonne L Eaglehouse, Sarah Darmon, Michele M Gage, Craig D Shriver, Kangmin Zhu","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-248","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-248","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In the United States (U.S.) population, thyroid cancer incidence, aggressiveness, and survival have been shown to vary by patient age at diagnosis and biological sex. Surgery is a primary treatment for low-risk thyroid cancer and surgical outcomes can greatly influence patient outcomes and survival. It is unknown whether patients differ in postoperative outcomes of thyroid cancer surgery by age at diagnosis and sex. We aimed to study the topic in the U.S. Military Health System (MHS) to address this gap in knowledge.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used the Military Cancer Epidemiology (MilCanEpi) database to study a cohort of patients aged 18 years and older diagnosed with T1-2N0M0 papillary thyroid cancer between 2001 and 2014 who received thyroidectomy surgery. We estimated the adjusted risk ratio (ARR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in association with patient age at diagnosis and biological sex for 30-day general and local thyroid complications and hospital readmissions using multivariable Poisson regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study included 2,041 patients with 2.3% experiencing a general complication, 12.1% a thyroid complication, and 13.9% a readmission within 30 days after surgery. Overall, rates of general and thyroid complications as a whole were not statistically different for patients aged 40-49 or 50 years and older relative to age 18-39 years in multivariable models. However, patients 50 years or older had a statistically lower risk of hypoparathyroidism (ARR =0.37; 95% CI: 0.19-0.73) and also lower rates of readmission (ARR =0.68; 95% CI: 0.49-0.93) compared to patients aged 18-39 years. There were no statistically significant differences in the outcomes for men compared to women.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In the MHS, we observed some variation in risk of complications and readmissions by patient age at diagnosis for those undergoing thyroidectomy for T1-2N0M0 papillary thyroid cancer. More research is needed to understand the factors underlying lower risk of complications among older adults, or conversely, higher risk for complications among young adult patients with papillary thyroid cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2187-2199"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685778/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Background: Pancreaticoduodenectomy is the primary treatment modality for pancreatic and periampullary malignancies. Postoperative collections in the surgical area are common complications, and the management of such collections often requires ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage. However, when collections occur in challenging areas, conventional methods usually prove ineffective. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of an improved ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage technique for managing collections in challenging areas following pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Methods: This retrospective study included 31 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at the Qingchun Campus of The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2023 to September 2024 and developed fluid collections in challenging locations. All patients provided written informed consent before the procedure. Three different techniques were employed based on the location of the collections. Hydrodissection uses saline to separate tissues, creating a safe needle pathway. Modified trocar technique blunts the catheter tip by withdrawing the trocar stylet, reducing the risk of damage to adjacent organs. The transhepatic method involves passing a catheter through the liver to reach the target collection. After successful catheter placement, we evaluated and compared the technical and clinical success rates of the three methods and analyzed the associated complications.
Results: A total of 31 patients with fluid collections in challenging areas were included in this study. Among these, the transhepatic method was the most frequently used technique (77.42%), followed by hydrodissection (12.90%) and the modified trocar technique (9.68%). Notably, all procedures achieved 100% technical success. The overall clinical success rate was 83.87% (26/31), with no statistically significant differences observed among the methods. No severe complications were reported in any of the cases.
Conclusions: Ultrasound-guided drainage is a safe and effective procedure for managing fluid collections in challenging locations following pancreaticoduodenectomy.
{"title":"Ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage of collections in difficult locations after pancreaticoduodenectomy: experiences from a single Chinese institution.","authors":"Tao Jiang, Qunying Li, Zhuang Deng, Chao Cheng, Xinyan Jin, Tianan Jiang","doi":"10.21037/gs-2025-278","DOIUrl":"10.21037/gs-2025-278","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pancreaticoduodenectomy is the primary treatment modality for pancreatic and periampullary malignancies. Postoperative collections in the surgical area are common complications, and the management of such collections often requires ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage. However, when collections occur in challenging areas, conventional methods usually prove ineffective. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of an improved ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage technique for managing collections in challenging areas following pancreaticoduodenectomy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective study included 31 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at the Qingchun Campus of The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2023 to September 2024 and developed fluid collections in challenging locations. All patients provided written informed consent before the procedure. Three different techniques were employed based on the location of the collections. Hydrodissection uses saline to separate tissues, creating a safe needle pathway. Modified trocar technique blunts the catheter tip by withdrawing the trocar stylet, reducing the risk of damage to adjacent organs. The transhepatic method involves passing a catheter through the liver to reach the target collection. After successful catheter placement, we evaluated and compared the technical and clinical success rates of the three methods and analyzed the associated complications.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 31 patients with fluid collections in challenging areas were included in this study. Among these, the transhepatic method was the most frequently used technique (77.42%), followed by hydrodissection (12.90%) and the modified trocar technique (9.68%). Notably, all procedures achieved 100% technical success. The overall clinical success rate was 83.87% (26/31), with no statistically significant differences observed among the methods. No severe complications were reported in any of the cases.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Ultrasound-guided drainage is a safe and effective procedure for managing fluid collections in challenging locations following pancreaticoduodenectomy.</p>","PeriodicalId":12760,"journal":{"name":"Gland surgery","volume":"14 11","pages":"2179-2186"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12685782/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145722311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}