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Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Maize Production in Tanzania: Time Series Analysis 影响坦桑尼亚玉米生产因素的经济分析:时间序列分析
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/vzvysz15
Abel Moshi, M. Nestory, Bernard Mlilile
Maize is an important food and income earner for rural and urban dwellers in Tanzania. Despite efforts done by the government and private sector, the yield of maize has remained significantly below the average of less than 2 metric tonnes per hectare. This threatens food insecurity and poverty for rural people. This study analyses the economic factors affecting maize production in Tanzania for a period of 61 years. Time series data on aggregate maize production, fertilizer price, total area under maize cultivation, the total seed used, expected price of maize and average annual rainfall for the period 1961-2020 were analyzed using a vector error correction model. Empirical findings revealed that the total area under maize cultivation, the total seed used and average annual rainfall have a positive relationship with aggregate maize production; but fertilizer price and expected price of maize have a negative relationship with aggregate maize production. In terms of statistical significance, the study found that the area cultivated was statistically significant; but seed used, price of fertilizer, expected price of maize and average annual rainfall were statistically insignificant. The study recommends formulation of policies about intensive agriculture, fertilizer and seed subsidization and irrigation schemes to increase productivity.  
玉米是坦桑尼亚农村和城市居民的重要食物和收入来源。尽管政府和私营部门做出了努力,但玉米产量仍然远远低于每公顷不到2公吨的平均水平。这威胁到农村人口的粮食不安全和贫困。本研究分析了影响坦桑尼亚61年玉米生产的经济因素。采用向量误差修正模型对1961-2020年玉米总产量、肥料价格、玉米种植总面积、玉米种子总用量、玉米预期价格和年均降雨量的时间序列数据进行了分析。实证结果表明:玉米种植面积、种子利用总量和年均降雨量与玉米总产量呈正相关;化肥价格和玉米预期价格与玉米总产量呈负相关。在统计显著性方面,研究发现种植面积具有统计学显著性;种子使用量、化肥价格、玉米预期价格和年平均降雨量在统计学上不显著。该研究建议制定有关集约化农业、肥料和种子补贴以及灌溉计划的政策,以提高生产力。
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引用次数: 0
Smallholder farmers’ Resilience Capacity to Climate Change Shocks at Kikombo ward in Dodoma Region Dodoma地区Kikombo区小农应对气候变化冲击的能力
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/yce66628
Wenseslaus Marko, Gemma Mafwolo, O. Mzirai, M. Maguta
Despite the fact that, climate change is a threat worldwide, semi-arid areas are more vulnerable to its distress. This study was conducted at Kikombo Ward in Chamwino District to examine the local community’s resilience capacity to climate change shocks using 73 families which were randomly selected. Cross tabulation, correlation, and Binary logistic regression were used to study the variables using IBM SPSS version 20. The results revealed that 97% of the respondents were aware of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, but only 43.7% were practicing Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA). Even though 43.7% of smallholder farmers reported to practice CSA, their crop production was still low which raises questions about the effectiveness and challenges faced in the application of CSA. The findings further disclosed that most of the CSA practices were not done in the farmers' plots or were done partially. Challenges facing smallholder farmers in practicing CSA included; a lack of knowledge on the proper application of the CSA practices (p=0.023) as well as the cost of tools and inputs (p=0.034). The findings indicate that, most of the households had low resilience capacity to climate change shocks and the community's ability to absorb climate change shocks depended mainly on income accrued from small businesses. Services provided to promote the adoption of CSA were inadequate and therefore insignificant in enhancing the adoption of CSA. In this regard, the government and development partner’s support are highly recommended for optimum CSA application in the community.  
尽管气候变化是一个全球性的威胁,但半干旱地区更容易受到其困扰。本研究在Chamwino区的Kikombo区进行,利用随机选择的73个家庭来检验当地社区对气候变化冲击的抵御能力。使用IBM SPSS version 20对变量进行交叉表、相关和二元逻辑回归分析。结果显示,97%的受访者意识到气候变化对农业的影响,但只有43.7%的受访者正在实施气候智慧型农业(CSA)。尽管43.7%的小农报告采用了CSA,但他们的作物产量仍然很低,这使人们对CSA的有效性和应用面临的挑战产生了疑问。研究结果进一步揭示,大多数CSA做法不是在农民的地块上进行的,或者是部分进行的。小农实施CSA面临的挑战包括:缺乏正确应用CSA实践的知识(p=0.023)以及工具和投入的成本(p=0.034)。研究结果表明,大多数家庭对气候变化冲击的抵御能力较低,社区吸收气候变化冲击的能力主要依赖于小企业的收入积累。为促进采用集体文化评价而提供的服务不足,因此对促进采用集体文化评价的作用微不足道。在这方面,强烈建议政府和发展伙伴的支持,以使CSA在社区中得到最佳应用。
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引用次数: 0
Private Sector Participation in Local Government Planning and Budgeting Processes: Experiences from Makete and Njombe Districts Councils 私营部门参与地方政府规划和预算编制过程:来自Makete和Njombe区议会的经验
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/y4cj5756
Berine R. Magaria, Z. Masanyiwa, Nzoja E. Shauri
The private sector is a key development partner, thus, its participation in government development planning and budgeting processes is crucial. This study investigated private sector participation in planning and budgeting processes in local government authorities in Makete and Njombe District Councils in Njombe Region. The specific objectives of the study were to examine spaces for private sector participation, and establish factors influencing private sector participation in LGAs’ development planning and budgeting processes. The study involved 40 purposively selected private sector organizations’ officials and 15 LGAs officials. Data were collected through structured interviews, key informant interviews and documentary reviews. The descriptive analysis technique was used for data analysis. Qualitative data were analysed for qualitative content analysis. The study found that the main spaces for private sector participation in LGA’s planning and budgeting processes were the submission of annual plans and budgets to LGAs, attending LGAs’ annual planning and budgeting meetings, and inviting LGAs officials to attend private sector planning and budgeting processes. The main factors influencing the private sector’s participation in LGAs planning and budgeting processes were: the policies of the private organisations, the need for transparency and accountability, the need for government support, the organization’s scope of operation and fora for lobbying and advocacy. It was concluded that the existing mechanisms were generally ‘closed’ or ‘invited’ spaces, which offered limited participation space for the private sector. Thus, there is a need for the government to widen participation spaces for the public sector, including by putting in place clear modalities for involving the private sector in LGA’s development planning and budgeting processes.  
私营部门是一个关键的发展伙伴,因此,它参与政府发展规划和预算编制过程是至关重要的。这项研究调查了私营部门参与恩琼贝省马凯特和恩琼贝区议会地方政府当局规划和预算编制过程的情况。这项研究的具体目标是审查私营部门参与的空间,并确定影响私营部门参与地方政府发展规划和预算编制过程的因素。研究对象包括40名有意挑选的私营机构官员和15名地方政府官员。通过结构化访谈、关键信息提供者访谈和文献回顾收集数据。数据分析采用描述性分析技术。对定性资料进行定性内容分析。研究发现,私营部门参与地方政府规划和预算编制过程的主要空间是向地方政府提交年度计划和预算,参加地方政府年度规划和预算编制会议,邀请地方政府官员参加私营部门的规划和预算编制过程。影响私营部门参与地方政府规划和预算编制过程的主要因素是:私营组织的政策、透明度和问责制的需要、政府支持的需要、组织的业务范围以及游说和宣传的论坛。得出的结论是,现有机制一般是“封闭”或“邀请”的空间,这为私营部门提供了有限的参与空间。因此,政府有必要扩大公共部门的参与空间,包括制定明确的模式,让私营部门参与地方政府的发展规划和预算编制过程。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Affecting Night Market Traders’ Performance in Tanzania: A Case of Forodhani Night Market in Unguja 坦桑尼亚夜市商人业绩的影响因素——以Unguja Forodhani夜市为例
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/wm4dz957
Ester Ugulumu, M. Nestory, Oscar Mpasa
This study assessed the factors affecting the night market traders’ sales performance. The factors examined were the age, sex, marital status, trade experience, startup capital, number of employees, business type, and years of schooling of a night market trader. The study employed a cross-sectional research design whereby structured and semi-structured interviews were used for data collection. Probability and non-probability sampling techniques were employed to select a sample of 98 night market traders. Data were analysed by using a multiple linear regression model. The findings revealed that traders’ experience, start-up capital, number of employees, business type, years of schooling and sex of a night market trader significantly influenced sales performance. Therefore, entrepreneurial educators should craft strategies and learning environments that validate and stimulate women’s identity in a way that does not compete with the behaviour of the idealised male entrepreneur also government should establish a special campaign to motivate financial institutions to open up a special window for night market traders in accessing loans and accommodate entrepreneurs’ skills in teaching curriculum starting from primary to university education levels
本研究评估影响夜市商贩销售业绩的因素。考察的因素是夜市商贩的年龄、性别、婚姻状况、交易经验、启动资金、员工人数、业务类型、受教育年限。本研究采用横断面研究设计,采用结构化和半结构化访谈进行数据收集。采用概率和非概率抽样技术,选取了98名夜市商贩作为样本。采用多元线性回归模型对数据进行分析。研究发现,夜市商贩的经验、启动资金、员工人数、业务类型、受教育年限和性别对其销售业绩有显著影响。因此,企业家教育工作者应制定战略和学习环境,以一种不与理想化的男性企业家的行为竞争的方式验证和激发妇女的身份,政府也应开展一项特别运动,激励金融机构为夜市商人提供获得贷款的特别窗口,并在从小学到大学教育水平的教学课程中适应企业家的技能
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Living Arrangements of Older Persons in Rural Areas of Kasulu District in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚卡苏鲁县农村地区老年人生活安排的决定因素
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/5k4xec35
T. Mdendemi, I. Mpeta, A. Mkelenga, L. Macha
The study was conducted in Kasulu District Council to assess the determinants of the living arrangements of older persons in rural areas of Tanzania. A multistage sampling technique was applied to obtain 379 older persons to whom a questionnaire was administered for data collection. Data analysis was done using the likelihood chi-square ratio test and multinomial logistic regression using IBM SPSS statistics and STATA. It was found that 38% of older persons lived with a spouse and children while only 14% lived alone. Household size was a strong predictor of all types of living arrangements for older persons implying that the addition of one person to the household of an older person would increase the possibility of an older person living with a spouse and children relative to living alone. The marital status of the relative with whom the older person would prefer to live with was also a strong predictor. Also, it was found that older persons who had sources of income-generation were more likely to live with their relatives than those who had no sources of personal income. An older person with no education or low education was more likely to live with a relative compared to an educated one, and the effects were statistically significant for all categories of living arrangements. Furthermore, it was also found that a never-married older person had a reduced chance of living with a spouse. It is recommended that the current elderly and aging policy which puts more emphasis on family care for elderly members should be revised.  
这项研究是在卡苏鲁区议会进行的,目的是评估坦桑尼亚农村地区老年人生活安排的决定因素。采用多阶段抽样技术,对379名老年人进行问卷调查,收集数据。数据分析采用似然卡方检验和多项逻辑回归,采用IBM SPSS统计和STATA。调查发现,38%的老年人与配偶和子女生活在一起,而只有14%的老年人独自生活。家庭规模是老年人所有类型生活安排的一个强有力的预测指标,这意味着老年人家庭中增加一个人将增加老年人与配偶和子女同住的可能性,而不是独居。老年人喜欢与之同居的亲属的婚姻状况也是一个强有力的预测因素。此外,调查发现,有收入来源的老年人比没有个人收入来源的老年人更有可能与亲属同住。与受过教育的老人相比,没有受过教育或受教育程度较低的老人更有可能与亲戚住在一起,这种影响在所有类别的生活安排中都具有统计学意义。此外,研究还发现,从未结过婚的老年人与配偶生活在一起的机会减少。建议修改现行的老年人和老龄化政策,该政策更加强调家庭对老年人的照顾。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Tax Productivity Performance in Tanzania: A Time Series Analysis 坦桑尼亚税收生产力绩效的决定因素:时间序列分析
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/0373gw62
M. Awadh, N. Ngowi, Anicet Rwezaula
The study was focused on assessing the determinants of tax productivity performance in Tanzania adopting a time series analysis based on data spanning from the year 1996 to 2020. A time series using the multivariate regression model of the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLSM) was employed to analyze the data. The findings of the study show that GDP as a proxy of economic factors, the share of agriculture in GDP as a proxy of structural factors and regulatory quality as a proxy of institutional factors have a positive significant relationship with the dependent variable (i.e., total tax as a percent of GDP). On the other hand, the industrial sector, trade volume (i.e., export and import), and control of corruption were insignificant factors influencing the dependent variable (i.e., total tax as a percent of GDP). As part of the policy implication, we recommend that there should be sustainable initiatives to formalize the agricultural sector. Improve the industrial sector, trade volume and institutional environment to widen the tax base and increase tax revenue to align with the country’s economic development
该研究的重点是评估坦桑尼亚税收生产力绩效的决定因素,采用基于1996年至2020年数据的时间序列分析。采用普通最小二乘法(OLSM)多元回归模型的时间序列对数据进行分析。研究结果表明,GDP作为经济因素的代理,农业在GDP中的份额作为结构性因素的代理,监管质量作为制度因素的代理,与因变量(即总税收占GDP的百分比)呈显著正相关。另一方面,工业部门、贸易量(即进出口)和对腐败的控制是影响因变量(即税收总额占国内生产总值的百分比)的无关紧要的因素。作为政策含义的一部分,我们建议应采取可持续举措,使农业部门正规化。改善产业结构、贸易规模和制度环境,扩大税基,增加税收,使之与国家经济发展相适应
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Multidimensional Poverty in Rural Tanzania 坦桑尼亚农村多维贫困的决定因素
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/kavham44
Geofrey Charles, Sixtus Otieno, M. Kimaro, Elisante Heriel, Tuntufye Mwakasisi, Johnson Mganga
This study examines the determinants of multidimensional poverty in rural Tanzania. Poverty is still a challenge in Tanzania, particularly in rural areas, since its incidence rate of decrease is slower than in urban areas. The study used binary logistic regression to identify the key determinants of multidimensional poverty in rural Tanzania. Both the Alkire-Foster (2011) counting and binary logistic regression methods were applied to estimate the Multidimensional Poverty Index and determinants of multidimensional poverty respectively. The research utilized data that were already collected by the Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey in 2017. The Alkire and Foster estimates, showed that, the majority of the households living in rural Tanzania (74.43 percent) were poor. Additionally, the findings showed that, the dimension of living standard (56.6%) contributes more to the total MPI, followed by health (23.2) and education (20.2%). Binary logit regression model estimates showed that, the factors being studied were proven to be statistically significant determinants that have an impact on multidimensional poverty in rural Tanzania. Moreover, female-headed households were 1.22 times more likely to be multi-dimensionally poor compared to male-headed households at the 5% level of significance. The findings reveal that age, education levels and married decrease the probability of being poor. Similarly, the model revealed that, people who use family planning are less likely to be poor (odd ratio, 0.79). This study has important policy implications for reducing multidimensional poverty in rural Tanzania. The government should prioritize improving access to basic amenities, housing, and infrastructure, and promote education and family planning services. Gender-sensitive policies and programs are also needed to address gender inequalities in rural Tanzania. For example, the government should invest in rural infrastructure development programs, such as the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Programme, which aims to provide safe water and sanitation facilities to rural communities.  
本研究考察了坦桑尼亚农村多维贫困的决定因素。贫穷在坦桑尼亚仍然是一个挑战,特别是在农村地区,因为其发生率下降的速度比城市地区慢。该研究使用二元逻辑回归来确定坦桑尼亚农村多维贫困的关键决定因素。采用Alkire-Foster(2011)计数和二元逻辑回归方法分别估算了多维贫困指数和多维贫困的决定因素。该研究利用了2017年坦桑尼亚人口与健康调查已经收集的数据。阿尔凯尔和福斯特的估计表明,生活在坦桑尼亚农村的大多数家庭(74.43%)是贫困的。此外,研究结果表明,生活水平维度对总MPI的贡献最大(56.6%),其次是健康(23.2)和教育(20.2%)。二元logit回归模型估计表明,所研究的因素已被证明是影响坦桑尼亚农村多维贫困的统计上显著的决定因素。此外,在5%显著性水平上,女性户主家庭的多维贫困可能性是男性户主家庭的1.22倍。研究结果显示,年龄、教育水平和婚姻状况会降低贫穷的可能性。同样,该模型显示,实行计划生育的人不太可能贫穷(奇数比,0.79)。这项研究对减少坦桑尼亚农村的多维贫困具有重要的政策意义。政府应优先改善基本设施、住房和基础设施,并促进教育和计划生育服务。还需要制定对性别问题敏感的政策和方案,以解决坦桑尼亚农村的性别不平等问题。例如,政府应投资农村基础设施发展项目,如农村供水和卫生项目,旨在为农村社区提供安全用水和卫生设施。
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引用次数: 0
The Risk Management Practices and Organisational Performance in Public Institutions: A Case of DUWASA and TANESCO in Dodoma 公共机构的风险管理实践与组织绩效:杜多马市杜瓦萨和TANESCO的案例
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/gqcc5138
M. Nestory, Ester Ugulumu, Oscar Mpasa
This paper assesses the risk management practices and organizational performance of public institutions. Specifically, the paper assessed, the types of risks faced by public institutions, the strategies used in managing them and the role of risk management practices in improving organizational performance.  Probability and non-probability sampling techniques were employed to select employees from TANESCO and DUWASA. Both descriptive (multiple responses) and inferential statistics (ordinal regression) were used for data analysis. The findings revealed that public institutions face procurement risks, financial risks, and unethical risks. Risk reduction, risk transfer, and risk acceptance were the preferred strategies to manage risks within organizations. The “Spearman's Rank Correlation” results show that there is a significant and positive correlation between risk treatment (r= 0.735, p= 0.05), risk identification (r=0.528, p=0.01), and organizational performance in TANESCO while there is a significant and positive correlation between risk treatment (r=0.683, p=0.01), risk identification (r=0.461, p=0.05), risk analysis (r=0.450, p= 0.05) and organization performance in DUWASA. Ordinal regression results show that risk management processes (establishing scope, context and criteria = 2.678, risk identification =2.766, and risk treatment= 3.930) were a significant and positive predictor of organizational performance in TANESCO at the one percent level, while risk identification (1.619) and risk treatment (2.158) were significant and positive predictors of organizational performance in DUWASA at the one and five percent levels respectively. Therefore, public institutions should integrate risk management processes with other core functions of the organization if organizational objectives are to be achieved
本文评估了公共事业单位的风险管理实践和组织绩效。具体而言,本文评估了公共机构面临的风险类型、管理风险的策略以及风险管理实践在提高组织绩效方面的作用。采用概率和非概率抽样技术从TANESCO和DUWASA中选择员工。采用描述性统计(多重反应)和推理统计(有序回归)进行数据分析。调查结果显示,公共机构面临采购风险、财务风险和不道德风险。风险减少、风险转移和风险接受是管理组织内风险的首选策略。“Spearman’s Rank Correlation”结果显示,TANESCO的风险处理(r= 0.735, p=0.05)、风险识别(r=0.528, p=0.01)与组织绩效呈显著正相关,DUWASA的风险处理(r=0.683, p=0.01)、风险识别(r=0.461, p=0.05)、风险分析(r=0.450, p=0.05)与组织绩效呈显著正相关。有序回归结果表明,风险管理过程(建立范围、背景和准则= 2.678,风险识别=2.766,风险处理= 3.930)在1%的水平上是TANESCO组织绩效的显著正向预测因子,而风险识别(1.619)和风险处理(2.158)分别在1%和5%的水平上是DUWASA组织绩效的显著正向预测因子。因此,如果要实现组织目标,公共机构应该将风险管理过程与组织的其他核心职能相结合
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引用次数: 0
Participation in School Committees in Monitoring Primary School Projects in the Nyang’hwale District in Tanzania 参加学校委员会监测坦桑尼亚尼扬瓦莱区的小学项目
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.59557/kykk3z52
Z. Masanyiwa, Berine R. Magaria, Nzoja E. Shauri
School committees hold a central role in decision making on various issues about the development and delivery of primary education, including the monitoring of school projects. This study examined the participation of school committees in monitoring primary school projects in selected schools in Nyang’hwale District in the Geita Region. Specifically, the study determined the extent of school committee members’ participation in monitoring school projects and examined factors influencing the school committee’s participation in monitoring primary school projects. A purposive sampling technique was used to select 17 primary schools and 136 school committee members and key informants involved in the study. Data were collected through structured interviews using a structured questionnaire, key informant interviews and documentary review, and were analyzed for descriptive statistics, chi-square test and binary logistic regression. Results showed that most of the school committee members participated in project identification and planning, but less in budgeting activities. The main factors that influenced the participation of school committees were their perceived ability to speak up in meetings, their willingness to participate and their source of information. It was concluded that school committees’ participation in monitoring school projects was limited and constrained by gender imbalance. Thus, there is a need for capacity building for school committees to enhance their capacity for their roles and responsibilities.
学校委员会在制定有关小学教育发展和提供的各种问题的决策方面发挥核心作用,包括监督学校项目。这项研究审查了学校委员会参与监测盖塔地区Nyang 'hwale区选定学校的小学项目的情况。具体而言,本研究确定了学校委员会成员参与监督学校项目的程度,并考察了影响学校委员会参与监督小学项目的因素。采用有目的抽样的方法,选取17所小学、136名校委会成员和关键线人参与研究。采用结构化问卷、关键信息人访谈和文献回顾等结构化访谈方法收集数据,并采用描述性统计、卡方检验和二元逻辑回归进行分析。结果显示,大部分校委会成员参与了项目的确定和规划,但较少参与预算活动。影响学校委员会参与的主要因素是他们在会议上发言的能力、他们参与的意愿和他们的信息来源。结论是,学校委员会参与监测学校项目受到性别不平衡的限制和制约。因此,有必要对学校委员会进行能力建设,以提高其发挥作用和承担责任的能力。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
RPJ: Rural Planning Journal
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