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Proactive Resolution of Sovereign and Subnational Debt 主动解决主权和地方债务
Pub Date : 2019-07-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3414394
S. Schwarcz
Sovereign debt restructuring strategies have been mostly reactive, applying only once a nation’s debt burden becomes unsustainable. Reactive strategies are suboptimal for many reasons, including that international law does not yet provide mechanisms—in the corporate sector, provided by bankruptcy law—for correcting collective action and other market failures that impede the restructuring of sovereign debt. A financially troubled nation often faces a dilemma: paying its debt would reduce its ability to provide critical public services, but defaulting would further damage the nation’s fiscal integrity and reputation and could even shock the broader economy. Building on “proactive” strategies designed to resolve corporate debt burdens, this Article examines the proactive resolution of government debt burdens, first addressing the problem of unsustainable sovereign debt and then addressing the growing crisis of unsustainable subnational debt.
主权债务重组策略大多是被动的,只有在一个国家的债务负担变得不可持续时才会适用。由于许多原因,反应性策略是次优的,包括国际法尚未提供机制——在公司部门,破产法提供了纠正集体行动和其他阻碍主权债务重组的市场失灵的机制。陷入财政困境的国家往往面临两难境地:偿还债务会降低其提供关键公共服务的能力,但违约会进一步损害该国的财政诚信和声誉,甚至可能冲击更广泛的经济。本文以旨在解决企业债务负担的“主动”战略为基础,探讨政府债务负担的主动解决方案,首先解决不可持续的主权债务问题,然后解决日益严重的不可持续的地方债务危机。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidity, the Government Balance Sheet, and the Public Sector Discount Rate 流动性、政府资产负债表和公共部门贴现率
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3477069
A. Coleman
This paper provides a review of the modern finance literature examining how liquidity affects the private sector demand for real assets and financial securities. This literature shows that when firms evaluate risky investments they distinguish fundamental earnings risk and liquidity risks, and choose discount rates that link the discount rates they use to the liquidity and structure of their balance sheets. The government can mimic their behaviour by adopting a procedure that (i) ranks projects by discounting their expected costs and benefits by a low ‘fundamental earnings’ discount rate, perhaps 4 – 5 percent; and (ii) imposes a second ‘liquidity’ discount based on the government’s balance sheet structure and debt objectives that simultaneously determines the quantity of investments. By more closely copying private sector practice, this approach will directly link the quantity of investments that a government makes to the discount rates it uses. It will also enable the New Zealand government to reduce the discount rates it uses to evaluate long horizon investments without compromising its aim of ensuring the public and private sectors adopt a common method of evaluating investment projects.
本文回顾了现代金融文献,研究流动性如何影响私人部门对实物资产和金融证券的需求。这些文献表明,当公司评估风险投资时,他们会区分基本收益风险和流动性风险,并选择将贴现率与资产负债表的流动性和结构联系起来的贴现率。政府可以模仿他们的行为,采用一种程序:(i)通过较低的“基本收益”贴现率(可能为4 - 5%)对项目的预期成本和收益进行贴现,从而对项目进行排名;(ii)根据政府的资产负债表结构和债务目标施加第二次“流动性”折扣,这同时决定了投资数量。通过更密切地模仿私营部门的做法,这种方法将把政府的投资数量与其使用的贴现率直接联系起来。它还将使新西兰政府能够减少用于评估长期投资的贴现率,而不会损害其确保公共和私营部门采用评估投资项目的共同方法的目标。
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引用次数: 9
Re-Examining the Debt-Growth Nexus: A Grouped Fixed-Effect Approach 重新审视债务与增长的关系:一种分组固定效应方法
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3415405
Marta Gómez-Puig, S. Sosvilla‐Rivero, I. Martínez‐Zarzoso
This paper uses panel data for 116 countries over the period 1995-2016 to investigate the heterogeneity of the debt-growth nexus across countries and the factors underlying it. In the first step, the grouped fixed effects (GFE) estimator proposed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015) is used to classify countries into groups, with group membership being endogenously determined. In the second step, a multinomial logit model is used to explore the drivers of the heterogeneity detected, among them the quality of institutions, the composition of debt-funded public expenditure, the relative public and private indebtedness, and the maturity of debt. Finally, the underlying factors explaining the time-varying impact of public debt on growth in the country groups identified is also investigated.
本文使用1995年至2016年期间116个国家的面板数据来调查各国债务增长关系的异质性及其背后的因素。第一步,使用Bonhomme和Manresa(2015)提出的分组固定效应(group fixed effects, GFE)估计器将国家划分为组,组成员由内生性决定。第二步,使用多项逻辑模型来探索发现的异质性驱动因素,其中包括机构质量、债务资助公共支出的构成、相对公共和私人债务以及债务期限。最后,还调查了解释公共债务对所确定的国家集团增长的时变影响的基本因素。
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引用次数: 1
Regional Budgets for Four Months of 2019: Trends Retained 2019年四个月区域预算:保持趋势
Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3411539
A. Deryugin
On the back of four months of 2019, the trend of high growth rates of revenues and lower growth rates of expenditures of regional consolidated budgets have been retained. This fact allows even the lowest-income regions to decrease fiscal burden and form reserves aimed at financing events in the framework of national projects.
继2019年4个月之后,地区综合预算收入高增长、支出低增长的趋势继续保持。这一事实使得即使是收入最低的地区也能减轻财政负担,形成储备金,为国家项目框架内的活动提供资金。
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引用次数: 0
A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks Under the Belt and Road Initiative “一带一路”倡议下债务可持续性和财政风险评估框架
Pub Date : 2019-06-17 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8891
Luca Bandiera, Vasileios Tsiropoulos
This paper provides a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries that are located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors in the absence of comprehensive and consistent information on investments and financing terms. Key assumptions relate to the amount of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing and its terms, the size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and the expected impact of growth in the medium and long term of that investment. BRI debt financing is expected significantly increase PPG debt in a number of countries. The paper provides estimates for both the medium and the long term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of BRI investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is not entirely realized. In this initial phase, around one-third of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated to face elevated debt vulnerabilities post- BRI, several of which have already high debt vulnerabilities. The impact of BRI on public debt would improve over the longer term under the assumption of a sustained negative interest rate-growth differential and in the absence of the materialization of BRI related fiscal risks. Still, debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain higher in one-third of countries (11 out of 30 with available data).
本文提供了一个框架,在缺乏全面和一致的投融资条件信息的情况下,评估“一带一路”倡议下预期的基础设施投资对位于“一带一路”交通和互联互通走廊沿线国家债务脆弱性的影响。关键假设涉及公共和公共担保(PPG)债务融资的金额及其条款、已确定的“一带一路”投资的规模和行业类型,以及该投资的中长期增长预期影响。“一带一路”债务融资预计将大幅增加一些国家的PPG债务。本文提供了中期和长期的估计。从中期来看,即2019-2023年,“一带一路”投资的债务融资预计将得到全额支付,而“一带一路”相关基础设施的增长影响尚未完全实现。在这一初始阶段,估计约有三分之一接受评估的“一带一路”受援国在实施“一带一路”后面临更高的债务脆弱性,其中一些国家的债务脆弱性已经很高。长期来看,在持续负利率和负增长差异的假设下,“一带一路”倡议对公共债务的影响将有所改善,且“一带一路”倡议相关的财政风险不会成为现实。尽管如此,预计三分之一的国家(30个可获得数据的国家中有11个)的债务与GDP之比仍将保持较高水平。
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引用次数: 26
Reducing Public Debt: The Experience of Advanced Economies over the Last 70 Years 减少公共债务:发达经济体过去70年的经验
Pub Date : 2019-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3405018
Sofia Bernardini, C. Cottarelli, G. Galli, Carlo Valdes
This paper investigates the episodes of public debt reduction in advanced economies since the Second World War. We find 30 episodes of large reductions in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Four main approaches succeeded in lowering the debt ratio. First, after the end of WWII, high and unexpected inflation eroded a large share of public debt. Second, during the Bretton Woods era, a mix of financial repression, high economic growth and moderate inflation helped reducing public debt. Third, since the 1980s, several advanced economies followed orthodox fiscal adjustments, namely improving their primary balance by reducing expenditure and/or raising taxes. The fourth approach (debt restructuring) was implemented only in one case: Greece in 2011-12. One key finding of our paper is that debt reduction has never been achieved by relaxing fiscal policy (cutting taxes or increasing expenditure), hoping that this would set in motion a growth process sufficiently strong to lower the debt ratio (the so-called “denominator approach” which has recently become fashionable in some countries, including Italy). The empirical evidence of the last 70 years suggests that running a sufficiently strong primary surplus is the only viable option to reduce public debt ratio nowadays, particularly in countries that are part of the euro area.
本文研究了二战以来发达经济体的公共债务削减事件。我们发现,公共债务与gdp之比出现了30次大幅下降。有四种主要方法成功地降低了负债率。首先,二战结束后,出乎意料的高通胀侵蚀了很大一部分公共债务。其次,在布雷顿森林体系时代,金融抑制、经济高增长和温和通胀的组合有助于减少公共债务。第三,自上世纪80年代以来,几个发达经济体遵循了正统的财政调整,即通过削减支出和/或增税来改善基本收支平衡。第四种方法(债务重组)只在一个案例中得到实施:2011年至2012年的希腊。我们的论文的一个关键发现是,债务削减从来没有通过放松财政政策(减税或增加支出)来实现,希望这将启动一个足够强劲的增长过程,以降低负债率(所谓的“分母方法”,最近在包括意大利在内的一些国家变得流行)。过去70年的经验证据表明,维持足够强劲的基本盈余是当前降低公共债务比率的唯一可行选择,尤其是在欧元区国家。
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引用次数: 4
How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades 如何重组主权债务:40年的教训
Pub Date : 2019-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3387455
L. Buchheit, G. Chabert, Chanda DeLong, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
This paper attempts to provide a playbook for the sovereign debt restructuring process, drawing on the experience with sovereign debt restructuring since the 1980s. It begins with a discussion of the participating actors and their interests. It then describes the considerations that must be weighed in designing, negotiating, and concluding a debt restructuring, in light of two problems: asymmetric information between the debtor and the creditors, and creditor coordination problems, which can lead to free riding (the “holdout” problem). The paper focuses on how these problems, which can lead to inefficiently negotiated outcomes, can be managed and minimized in practice.
本文试图借鉴20世纪80年代以来主权债务重组的经验,为主权债务重组过程提供一个剧本。它以讨论参与者及其利益开始。然后,它描述了在设计、谈判和完成债务重组时必须权衡的考虑因素,考虑到两个问题:债务人和债权人之间的信息不对称,以及债权人协调问题,这可能导致搭便车(“钉子户”问题)。本文的重点是如何在实践中管理和最小化这些可能导致低效谈判结果的问题。
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引用次数: 13
Has the 2008 Financial Crisis and its Aftermath Changed the Impact of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in Member States of the European Monetary Union? 2008年金融危机及其余波是否改变了欧洲货币联盟成员国通胀对通胀不确定性的影响?
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12170
Nima Nonejad
We study to what extent the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath have changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in the 12 original member states of the European Monetary Union (EMU). We adopt a time‐varying coefficient regression model with stochastic volatility effects, and extract two measures of inflation uncertainty from our data, namely, (1) The conditional volatility of inflation, (2) The conditional volatility of steady‐state inflation. (1)–(2) represent short‐run and steady‐state inflation uncertainty, respectively. The time‐varying impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Markov‐switching regressions, where switching between the low and high inflation uncertainty regime is determined via an unobserved Markov process. Results suggest that the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath have changed the impact of inflation on (1) and (2) across the selected EMU member states. However, a uniform pattern cannot be detected. For some member states, we document a strong link, whereas for others, the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty is relatively weaker.
本文研究了2008年金融危机及其后果在多大程度上改变了欧洲货币联盟(EMU) 12个原始成员国通货膨胀对通货膨胀不确定性的影响。我们采用随机波动效应的时间变系数回归模型,从我们的数据中提取通货膨胀不确定性的两个度量,即(1)通货膨胀的条件波动率,(2)稳定状态通货膨胀的条件波动率。(1)–(2)分别表示短期‐运行和稳定‐状态通货膨胀不确定性。使用马尔可夫切换回归分析通货膨胀对通货膨胀不确定性的时间变化影响,其中低通货膨胀不确定性和高通货膨胀不确定性之间的切换是通过未观察到的马尔可夫过程确定的。结果表明,2008年金融危机及其余波改变了通货膨胀对欧洲货币联盟成员国(1)和(2)的影响。但是,无法检测到统一的模式。对于一些成员国,我们记录了紧密的联系,而对于其他成员国,通货膨胀对通货膨胀不确定性的影响相对较弱。
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引用次数: 3
Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding out Effect for Public Investment in the EU? 欧盟公共债务是否对公共投资产生挤出效应?
Pub Date : 2019-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3376471
Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli, Willem Vanlaer, W. Marneffe
This paper exploits a panel dataset for 26 EU countries, between 1995 and 2015, to examine the extent to which increased levels of public debt have led to reduced public investment, the so-called ‘debt overhang’ hypothesis. To address endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable approach based on a GMM estimation. Our results validate the debt overhang hypothesis and remain robust across various estimation techniques. The GMM specification with year dummies indicates that a 1% increase in public debt in the EU brings about a reduction in public investment of 0.03%. Moreover, we find evidence that: 1) the results are mainly driven by high-debt countries; 2) the negative impact of debt on investment is slightly smaller in the Eurozone than in the entire EU; 3) both the stock and flow of public debt play a role in reducing public investment with the impact of the latter that is found to be more profound.
本文利用1995年至2015年间26个欧盟国家的面板数据集,检验公共债务水平上升导致公共投资减少的程度,即所谓的“债务过剩”假设。为了解决内生性问题,我们使用基于GMM估计的工具变量方法。我们的结果验证了债务悬置假设,并在各种估计技术中保持稳健。带有年份假数的GMM规范表明,欧盟公共债务每增加1%,公共投资就会减少0.03%。此外,我们发现证据表明:1)结果主要由高债务国家驱动;2)欧元区债务对投资的负面影响略小于整个欧盟;(3)公共债务存量和流动都对公共投资有减少作用,但后者的影响更为深远。
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引用次数: 23
A Long Road to Nowhere: The Legal and Remedial Futility of Challenges to a Restricted Single-Limb CAC Retrofit of Local-Law Italian Debt Stock 漫漫长路漫漫:意大利本地法债务股票有限单分支CAC改造挑战的法律和补救无效
Pub Date : 2019-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3371876
T. Zelinger
As a Eurozone sovereign in desperate need of a debt restructuring, Italy faces the paradoxical pressures of protecting its domestic economy and access to international debt markets while also conducting this restructuring in a way that aligns with Eurogroup supranational policy goals. By implementing a single-limb CAC subject to important restrictions and protections, Italy can effectively obtain the relief it desperately needs while minimizing local-law legal challenges and without running afoul of the intent and purpose of the Treaty Establishing the European Stability Mechanism. This paper recommends the retrofitting of a single-limb CAC on to all of Italy’s local-law debt stock. This CAC would be subject to three important restrictions. First, that it would only allow for the extension of maturities, with the length of the extension to be agreed upon by the Issuer and the holders of 50% of the outstanding principal of affected bonds. Second, the CAC would require that all affected bonds be treated identically, receiving an equal maturity extension. Third, voting would be limited to only those bonds actually affected by changes proposed under these CACs, and calculations regarding what constitutes 50% of outstanding principal would only include principal of actually affected bonds.
作为迫切需要债务重组的欧元区主权国家,意大利面临着既要保护国内经济、进入国际债务市场,又要以符合欧元集团超国家政策目标的方式进行债务重组的矛盾压力。通过实施具有重要限制和保护的单一分支CAC,意大利可以有效地获得其迫切需要的救济,同时最大限度地减少当地法律挑战,并且不会与《建立欧洲稳定机制条约》的意图和宗旨相抵触。本文建议对意大利所有地方法律债务存量进行单一分支CAC改造。该委员会将受到三项重要限制。首先,它只允许延长到期日,延长的期限由发行人和受影响债券未偿还本金的50%的持有人商定。其次,CAC将要求对所有受影响的债券一视同仁,给予同等的到期日延长。第三,投票权将仅限于那些实际受到这些CACs提议的变化影响的债券,有关构成未偿本金50%的计算将只包括实际受影响债券的本金。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Political Economy: Budget
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