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National Accounts in the Anthropocene: Hueting’s Environmental Functions and Environmentally Sustainable National Income: Translation and Relevance for Ecosystem Services 人类世的国民经济核算:huting的环境功能与环境可持续国民收入:生态系统服务的翻译与关联
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3419402
Thomas Colignatus
The UN System of National Accounts (SNA) calculates standard national income (NI) under the condition that owned capital is maintained. Roefie Hueting defined in 1969 environmental functions (state, stock) as the possible uses by humans of the environment. Their actual use (flow) nowadays are also called ecosystem services. Hueting defined in 1986 environmentally sustainable national income (eSNI) (flow) under the condition that the vital environmental functions are maintained for future generations. Then eΔ = NI – eSNI gives the national distance to environmental sustainability. Thus eΔ measures the level of ecosystem services concerning the part that infringes upon environmental sustainability, or the abusive part in the ecosystem services that are provided. This communication aspires at a translation of the terminologies by economist Hueting and ecologists in the research of ecosystem services.
联合国国民经济核算系统(SNA)在保留自有资本的情况下计算标准国民收入(NI)。Roefie Hueting在1969年将环境功能(状态,存量)定义为人类对环境的可能利用。它们的实际用途(流量)现在也被称为生态系统服务。huting在1986年定义了环境可持续国民收入(eSNI)(流量),前提是为子孙后代维持重要的环境功能。然后eΔ = NI - eSNI给出了国家对环境可持续性的距离。因此,eΔ衡量的是生态系统服务的水平,涉及侵犯环境可持续性的部分,或所提供的生态系统服务中滥用的部分。本交流旨在翻译经济学家huting和生态学家在生态系统服务研究中的术语。
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引用次数: 0
Key Sectors in Input-Output Production Networks: An Application to Brexit 投入产出生产网络中的关键部门:对英国脱欧的应用
Pub Date : 2019-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3347545
Raffaele Giammetti, Alberto Russo, M. Gallegati
This paper presents the first detailed and holistic description of the European production network (EPN) and provides different rankings of the most 'systemically important' industries involved in Brexit. Employing techniques of complex networks analysis and Input-Output traditional tools, the study identifies those industries that are key in the complex structure of the UK-EU trade relationships. The method developed would help policy-makers to better understand which tariff would have a more distortive impact, which export sector should be pushed, which imports should be safeguarded. Such information may have foremost importance in the negotiations between the UK and EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit would be not just a problem for the UK, as it is often portrayed, but any form of Brexit could propagate affecting the global production system. Further, by inspecting industries centrality within the EPN, we find that the UK could be less exposed to trade barriers than EU countries.
本文首次对欧洲生产网络(EPN)进行了详细而全面的描述,并对英国脱欧所涉及的最具“系统重要性”的行业进行了不同的排名。该研究采用复杂网络分析技术和传统的投入产出工具,确定了那些在英欧贸易关系复杂结构中至关重要的行业。所开发的方法将有助于政策制定者更好地了解哪种关税会产生更大的扭曲影响,应该推动哪个出口部门,应该保护哪个进口部门。这些信息可能对英国和欧盟之间的谈判至关重要。我们的研究结果表明,英国脱欧不仅是英国的问题,而且任何形式的英国脱欧都可能传播并影响全球生产体系。此外,通过检查EPN内的行业中心性,我们发现英国可能比欧盟国家更少受到贸易壁垒的影响。
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引用次数: 21
Value Chains: Production Upstreamness and Downstreamness Revisited 价值链:生产上下游再考察
Pub Date : 2018-11-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3647496
P. Aroca, R. Jackson
Measures devised to quantify value chain position have been used increasingly in recent years. While the constructs underlying these measures are meaningful, this paper identifies an overlooked implementation problem. Proposed algorithms have been applied as though the underlying data represent flows. Implementation data are drawn from modern input-output accounting frameworks that recognize secondary production explicitly. Unadjusted Use matrices are not conventional flows matrices because they do not identify the industries from which commodities originate. We demonstrate logical inconsistencies that arise, provide correct flow matrix formulations for upstreamness and downstreamness measures, and present empirical comparisons of correct and incorrect formulations.
近年来,为量化价值链位置而设计的措施已越来越多地使用。虽然这些度量的基础结构是有意义的,但本文指出了一个被忽视的实现问题。所提出的算法已被应用,就好像底层数据表示流一样。执行数据来自明确承认二次生产的现代投入产出会计框架。未经调整的使用矩阵不是传统的流量矩阵,因为它们不能确定商品来自哪个行业。我们论证了出现的逻辑不一致,为上游和下游测量提供了正确的流量矩阵公式,并对正确和不正确的公式进行了实证比较。
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引用次数: 0
Public Export Credit Insurance in the Netherlands: An Input-Output Approach 荷兰公共出口信用保险:一种投入产出方法
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3160976
M. van den Berg, Ilke Van Beveren, O. Lemmers, Tommy Span, Adam N. Walker
This study assesses the contribution of the Dutch public export credit insurance facility (ECIF) to Dutch GDP and employment. Unlike previous studies, which generally adopt the gravity model of trade, we adopt an input-output approach. The results show that the contribution of economic activity insured by the public ECIF to GDP averages 0.24 percent annually. This concerns value added generated both by exporters and their domestic suppliers in the value chain. The contribution to employment shows an average of 0.27 percent, accumulating to 95,000 jobs (FTE) over 5 years. The estimated contribution of the public ECIF to the Dutch economy should be considered an upper boundary of its true contribution. Therefore, we examine the extent to which the above economic gains would be realized if the facility was unavailable using highly disaggregated trade data. The basic idea is that if certain products are only exported to certain destinations with the aid of the public ECIF, then this suggests 100 percent additionality. The inconclusiveness of our results underlines the difficulties in assessing the degree of additionality.
本研究评估了荷兰公共出口信用保险设施(ECIF)对荷兰GDP和就业的贡献。与以往一般采用贸易引力模型的研究不同,我们采用了投入产出方法。结果表明,公共基金承保的经济活动对GDP的年均贡献率为0.24%。这涉及出口商及其国内供应商在价值链中创造的附加值。对就业的贡献平均为0.27%,5年内累计创造9.5万个工作岗位(FTE)。公共基金对荷兰经济的估计贡献应被视为其真正贡献的上限。因此,我们使用高度分类的贸易数据来检验如果该设施不可用,上述经济收益将在多大程度上实现。基本的想法是,如果某些产品只在公共ECIF的帮助下出口到某些目的地,那么这意味着100%的附加性。我们的结果的不确定性强调了评估附加性程度的困难。
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引用次数: 1
How to Measure the Local Economic Impact of Universities? Methodological Overview 如何衡量大学对地方经济的影响?方法概述
Pub Date : 2017-07-25 DOI: 10.15196/rs05201
Balázs Kotosz, M. Lukovics, Gabriella Molnár, Bence Zuti
Today, the realization that certain economic units, such as universities or other large tertiary educational institutions have an impact on the economy of their region has gained prominence. There is a growing demand for precise studies on the economic impact of such entities, and the issue has attracted considerable attention in the scientific community. The examination of their economic impact is especially interesting when we compare regions with different levels of development, characterized by a successful international university. The different methods used in the literature render comparisons difficult; therefore, our focus is to recommend a method for investigating universities in different countries. In the absence of regional input-output matrices, a multiplier based approach is suggested for the first and second mission (education and research), while the application of a set of indicators is recommended for the third mission (knowledge transfer-related). There are several substantial problems in assessing the economic impact of universities. First, the definition of impact; second, measuring and estimating first-round expenditures and avoiding double-counting; third, estimating the model parameters (e.g. multipliers); fourth, the quantification of third mission activities. In this paper, we clarify theoretical definitions, resolve some contradictions, and consequently, recommend a feasible method considering the circumstances in Hungary.
今天,某些经济单位,如大学或其他大型高等教育机构,对其所在地区的经济产生影响的认识已经变得突出。人们越来越需要对这些实体的经济影响进行精确的研究,这个问题在科学界引起了相当大的注意。当我们比较以成功的国际大学为特征的不同发展水平的地区时,对其经济影响的考察就显得特别有趣。文献中使用的不同方法使比较变得困难;因此,我们的重点是推荐一种方法来调查不同国家的大学。在没有区域投入产出矩阵的情况下,建议对第一个和第二个任务(教育和研究)采用基于乘数的方法,而对第三个任务(与知识转移有关)则建议采用一套指标。在评估大学的经济影响时,存在几个实质性的问题。第一,影响的定义;第二,衡量和估算第一轮支出,避免重复计算;第三,估计模型参数(如乘数);第四,第三任务活动的量化。在本文中,我们澄清了理论定义,解决了一些矛盾,从而提出了一种可行的方法,并结合匈牙利的情况。
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引用次数: 18
Where is the Consumer Center of St. Petersburg? 圣彼得堡的消费者中心在哪里?
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2970482
K. Kholodilin, I. Krylova, Darya Kryutchenko
In an urban economy, the distribution of people and real estate prices depends on the location of the central business district of a city. As distance from the city center increases, both prices and population density diminish, for travel costs increase in terms of time and money. As manufacturing gradually leaves the cities, the importance of consumer amenities as attractors of population to the urban areas increases. The role of a business center is being replaced by the consumer center. In this paper, we identify the location of the consumer center of St. Petersburg - the second largest city in Russia and its former capital. For this purpose using the data from open sources in the Internet regarding the location of many different types of urban amenities, the indices of their spatial density are computed. Using the weights based on coefficients of spatial variation and survey-based weights, the individual indices are aggregated to two general centrality indices. Their unique maxima correspond to the city center of St. Petersburg, which is located on Nevsky prospekt, between Fontanka river and Liteinyi prospekt.
在城市经济中,人口分布和房地产价格取决于城市中心商务区的位置。随着离市中心距离的增加,物价和人口密度都在下降,因为旅行的时间和金钱成本都在增加。随着制造业逐渐离开城市,消费便利设施作为吸引人口到城市地区的重要因素增加了。商务中心的角色正在被消费者中心所取代。本文确定了俄罗斯第二大城市、俄罗斯前首都圣彼得堡的消费中心位置。为此,利用互联网上有关许多不同类型的城市便利设施位置的开放来源数据,计算了它们的空间密度指数。利用基于空间变异系数的权重和基于调查的权重,将单个指数聚合为两个一般中心性指数。它们独特的最大值对应于圣彼得堡的市中心,位于涅夫斯基大街,在丰坦卡河和Liteinyi大街之间。
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引用次数: 1
Cascading Failures in Production Networks 生产网络级联故障
Pub Date : 2016-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2909868
D. Baqaee
I show how the extensive margin of firm entry and exit can greatly amplify idiosyncratic shocks in an economy with a production network. I show that canonical input-output models, which lack the extensive margin of firm entry and exit, have some crucial limitations. In these models, the systemic importance of a firm does not respond to productivity shocks, depends only on the firm’s role as a supplier, and is equal to or well-approximated by the firm’s size. This means that for every canonical input-output model, there exists a non-interconnected model that has the same aggregate response to productivity shocks. I show that when we allow for entry and exit, the systemic importance of a firm responds endogenously to productivity shocks, depends on a firm’s role not just as a supplier but also as a consumer, and a firm’s systemic influence is no longer well-approximated by its size. Furthermore, I show that nondivisibilities in systemically important industries can cause one failure to snowball into a large-scale avalanche of failures. In this sense, shocks can be amplified as they travel through the network, whereas in canonical input-output models they cannot.
我展示了企业进入和退出的巨大边际如何极大地放大了具有生产网络的经济体中的特殊冲击。我证明了缺乏企业进入和退出的广泛边际的标准投入产出模型有一些关键的局限性。在这些模型中,企业的系统重要性不会对生产率冲击作出反应,它只取决于企业作为供应商的角色,并与企业规模相等或非常接近。这意味着,对于每一个典型的投入产出模型,都存在一个对生产率冲击具有相同总响应的非互连模型。我表明,当我们允许进入和退出时,企业的系统重要性内生地响应生产率冲击,这不仅取决于企业作为供应商的角色,也取决于企业作为消费者的角色,而且企业的系统影响力不再与其规模很好地接近。此外,我还表明,在具有系统重要性的行业中,不可分割性可能导致一次失败像滚雪球一样演变成大规模的失败雪崩。从这个意义上说,冲击在网络中传播时可以被放大,而在规范的输入-输出模型中则不能。
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引用次数: 169
Can Singularity Problem in Economics be solved by Omnipotent Mathematics? 万能数学能解决经济学中的奇点问题吗?
Pub Date : 2015-07-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2634073
T. Das, Ishita Datta Ray
In mathematics, singularity signifies a point at which a given mathematical function or its derivatives is not defined. Singularities are mostly mathematical that occur in the mathematical models describing physical systems. In social science compared to physical science, fewer cases of singularity arise, among which the mostly discussed one is technological singularity. Omnipotent mathematics (OM) is an approach to analyze singularity in a mathematical framework. In this approach “zero” is a non-existent entity which decomposes into quasi-existent entities, which in turn interact with each other to generate an existent entity. The focus of this paper is to address a typical hypothetical singularity problem in economics and try to solve it using omnipotent mathematics. Here the economic input-output model has been used to showcase an economic singularity problem that can be resolved in terms of quasi-existent entity.
在数学中,奇点是指一个给定的数学函数或它的导数没有定义的点。奇点大多是数学上的,出现在描述物理系统的数学模型中。与物理科学相比,社会科学中奇点的出现较少,其中讨论最多的是技术奇点。万能数学是在数学框架中分析奇点的一种方法。在这种方法中,“零”是一个不存在的实体,它分解成准存在的实体,这些实体又相互作用,产生一个存在的实体。本文的重点是讨论经济学中一个典型的假设奇点问题,并试图用万能数学来解决它。在这里,经济投入产出模型被用来展示一个经济奇点问题,这个问题可以用准存在实体来解决。
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引用次数: 0
Sidewalk Stimulus: Economic and Geographic Impacts of Los Angeles Street Vendors 人行道刺激:洛杉矶街头小贩的经济和地理影响
Pub Date : 2015-06-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3380029
Yvonne Yen Liu, P. Burns, D. Flaming
This report estimates the impact of the informal penalty, that is, the cost of exclusion from the mainstream economy, for various stakeholders in the Angeleno ecosystem, from local businesses to neighborhood residents. We investigate three research questions: 1. What is the economic cost of excluding street vendors from the formal economy? 2. What consequences do sidewalk microentrepreneurs have on brick and mortar retail stores and restaurants operating on the same city block? 3. Is there likely to be more or less crime in areas where vendors are present?
本报告估计了非正式惩罚的影响,即被排除在主流经济之外的成本,对洛杉矶生态系统中的各种利益相关者,从当地企业到附近居民。我们调查了三个研究问题:1。将街头小贩排除在正规经济之外的经济成本是多少?2. 人行道上的微型企业家对在同一街区经营的实体零售店和餐馆有什么影响?3.在小贩出没的地区,犯罪是多还是少?
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引用次数: 7
Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy 产出缺口不确定性与实时货币政策
Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781498393454.001
F. Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew J. Swiston, C. Di Bella
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
由于数据订正和难以实时区分周期和趋势,产出缺口估计存在很大的不确定性。鉴于相对于产能的经济活动评估在货币政策中的核心作用,这一点很重要。我们发现,国家统计局往往会高估经济疲软,尤其是在经济衰退期间,而且初始产出缺口估计的不确定性会持续数年。根据产出动态、数据质量和政策框架等特征,只有一小部分产出缺口修正是可以预先预测的。我们还表明,对于一组拉丁美洲通胀目标,典型货币政策规则的处方由于产出缺口修正而发生了巨大变化。这些修正在很大程度上解释了通胀偏离目标的原因,表明这一信息并未在实时政策决策中得到考虑。
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引用次数: 33
期刊
ERN: Input-Output Models (Topic)
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