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2021 International Conference on Computing, Computational Modelling and Applications (ICCMA)最新文献

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Jack-knifing in small samples of survival data: when bias meets variance to increase estimate precision 小样本生存数据的jack- knife:当偏差满足方差以提高估计精度
Lubomír Štěpánek, Filip Habarta, I. Malá, L. Marek
Estimates performed particularly using small samples are a priori inaccurate. Furthermore, estimations of m-year survival rates, especially for large m ≫ 0, are inevitable of low precision because they are calculated as fractions with both low numerators and denominators. In this study, we use different degrees of jack-knifing of the original dataset used for m-year survival rates estimations to optimize the trade-off between decreasing variance (and increasing accuracy) and increasing bias of the estimates. Assuming the jack-knife enriches the original data in an allowed way since it does not generate new, non-existing observations, the results could suggest overcoming the small sample issue.
特别是使用小样本进行的估计先验上是不准确的。此外,m年存活率的估计,特别是对于大m > 0的存活率,由于其计算为分子和分母都很低的分数,因此精度低是不可避免的。在本研究中,我们对用于m年存活率估计的原始数据集使用不同程度的千斤顶刀,以优化估计的方差减少(和准确性提高)和偏差增加之间的权衡。假设“折刀法”以一种允许的方式丰富了原始数据,因为它不会产生新的、不存在的观测结果,那么结果可能建议克服小样本问题。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of Telecommunication Network Outage Time Using Multilayer Perceptron Modelling Approach 基于多层感知机模型的电信网络中断时间预测
F. Oduro-Gyimah, K. Boateng, Prince Boahen Adu, Kester Quist-Aphetsi
As the demand in communication traffic grows; there should be the provision of reliable telecommunication network to users. Operators however, face a myriad of challenges in fulfilling their part of the contract such as network outage. The phenomenon of network outage has been a challenge that every network operator is consistently trying to avoid. In this study, a multilayer feedforward neural network also called multilayer perceptron (MLP) was adopted to model network outage time of network elements or systems. The MLP network was trained on a 150 samples of daily network outage time data obtained from the Network Operating Centre of an operator in Ghana. The data covered a period of 1st January to 30th May 2018 and was analysed with Matlab software. In developing the model, the input and output layers were kept constant, while the number of neurons were varied from 1 to 20 to obtain a good prediction. The performance of the models were measured by the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Correlation Coefficient (R). After careful and extensive training, validation and testing, 20 models were developed. The MLP selected was 1-4-1 which produced MSE, RMSE, and an R-value of 0.0000024321, 0.00160 and 0.99993 respectively with a prediction accuracy of 97.5%. The study concludes that downtime prediction can be improved by feed forward neural network optimized using Levenberg-Marquardt with sigmoid function in the hidden and linear activation function in the output layer.
随着通信流量需求的增长;向用户提供可靠的电信网络。然而,运营商在履行合同时面临着无数的挑战,比如网络中断。网络中断现象一直是每个网络运营商都在努力避免的挑战。本研究采用多层前馈神经网络,也称为多层感知机(multilayer perceptron, MLP)对网络单元或系统的网络中断时间进行建模。MLP网络是根据从加纳一家运营商的网络运营中心获得的150个每日网络中断时间数据样本进行训练的。数据涵盖2018年1月1日至5月30日期间,并使用Matlab软件进行分析。在开发模型时,输入和输出层保持不变,而神经元数量从1到20不等,以获得较好的预测效果。通过均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和相关系数(R)来衡量模型的性能。经过仔细和广泛的训练、验证和测试,开发了20个模型。选取的MLP为1-4-1,产生MSE、RMSE, r值分别为0.0000024321、0.00160和0.99993,预测精度为97.5%。研究表明,利用Levenberg-Marquardt优化的前馈神经网络可以提高停机时间的预测能力,隐层为sigmoid函数,输出层为线性激活函数。
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引用次数: 4
An alternative to Cox’s regression for multiple survival curves comparison: A random forest-based approach using covariate structure 多生存曲线比较的Cox回归的替代方法:使用协变量结构的随机森林方法
Lubomír Štěpánek, Filip Habarta, I. Malá, L. Marek
There are several established methods for comparing more than two survival curves, namely the scale-rank test or Cox’s proportional hazard model. However, when their statistical assumptions are not met, their results’ validity is affected.In this study, we address the mentioned issue and propose a new statistical approach on how to compare more than two survival curves using a random forest algorithm, which is practically assumption-free. The repetitive generating of many decision trees covered by one random forest model enables to calculate of a proportion of trees with sufficient complexity classifying into all groups (depicted by their survival curves), which is the p-value estimate as an analogy of the classical Wald’s t-test output of the Cox’s regression. Furthermore, a level of the pruning of decision trees the random forest model is built with, can modify both the robustness and statistical power of the random forest alternative. The discussed results are confirmed using COVID-19 survival data with varying the tree pruning level.The introduced method for survival curves comparison, based on random forest algorithm, seems to be a valid alternative to Cox’s regression; however, it has no statistical assumptions and tends to reach higher statistical power.
有几种既定的方法可以比较两条以上的生存曲线,即scale-rank检验或Cox比例风险模型。然而,当他们的统计假设不满足时,他们的结果的有效性受到影响。在本研究中,我们解决了上述问题,并提出了一种新的统计方法,如何使用随机森林算法比较两条以上的生存曲线,这实际上是无假设的。由一个随机森林模型覆盖的许多决策树的重复生成使得能够计算出具有足够复杂性的树的比例,将其分类为所有组(由其生存曲线描述),这是p值估计,类似于Cox回归的经典Wald 's t检验输出。此外,建立随机森林模型的决策树的修剪水平可以修改随机森林方案的鲁棒性和统计能力。利用不同树木修剪水平的COVID-19存活数据证实了所讨论的结果。所介绍的基于随机森林算法的生存曲线比较方法似乎是Cox回归的有效替代方法;然而,它没有统计假设,往往达到更高的统计能力。
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引用次数: 0
Smart model of accessibility and mobility of health care 医疗保健可及性和流动性的智能模式
Mêtowanou H. Ahouandjinou, D. Medenou, R. Houessouvo, M.A. Godwind Houdji
Benin’s health system, like all health systems, is faced with the challenge of providing quality, safe and affordable health care. The problems of understaffing of health care personnel compared to the WHO recommendation on the one hand, and the problems of poor distribution of these health care personnel over the extent of the health care system on the other hand, lead us to think about a model of mobility and accessibility of health care in Benin. This work aims at setting up an intelligent algorithm of accessibility and mobility of health care and will allow any patient embarked at any point of the health system to be taken care of automatically by a doctor and a nurse. To achieve this, we have (i) studied the state of the art of healthcare accessibility and mobility, (ii) modeled the healthcare trajectory, (iii) developed an algorithm for the automatic assignment and management of a patient in a healthcare system and simulated it using operations research and graph tools. The work allowed to set up a dynamic algorithm of accessibility to health care and to answer the challenges of the health care systems.
贝宁的卫生系统与所有卫生系统一样,面临着提供优质、安全和负担得起的卫生保健的挑战。一方面,与世界卫生组织的建议相比,卫生保健人员人手不足的问题,另一方面,这些卫生保健人员在卫生保健系统范围内分布不佳的问题,促使我们思考贝宁卫生保健的流动性和可及性模式。这项工作的目的是建立一个可访问性和移动性的智能算法,使任何病人在卫生系统的任何地点都能得到医生和护士的自动照顾。为了实现这一目标,我们(i)研究了医疗保健可及性和移动性的最新技术,(ii)建立了医疗保健轨迹模型,(iii)开发了一种用于医疗保健系统中患者自动分配和管理的算法,并使用运筹学和图形工具进行了模拟。这项工作允许建立一个可获得卫生保健的动态算法,并回答卫生保健系统的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Machine Learning: Challenges, Limitations, and Compatibility for Audio Restoration Processes 机器学习:音频恢复过程的挑战、限制和兼容性
Owen Casey, Rushit Dave, Naeem Seliya, E. S. Boone
In this paper, machines learning networks are explored for their use in restoring degraded and compressed speech audio. The project intent is to build a new trained model from voice data to learn features of compression artifacting (distortion introduced by data loss from lossy compression) and resolution loss with an existing algorithm presented in ‘SEGAN: Speech Enhancement Generative Adversarial Network’. The resulting generator from the model was then to be used to restore degraded speech audio. This paper details an examination of the subsequent compatibility and operational issues presented by working with deprecated code, which obstructed the trained model from successfully being developed. This paper further serves as an examination of the challenges, limitations, and compatibility in the current state of machine learning.
本文探讨了机器学习网络在恢复退化和压缩语音音频中的应用。该项目的目的是从语音数据中构建一个新的训练模型,以学习压缩伪象(由有损压缩引起的数据丢失引起的失真)和分辨率损失的特征,并使用“SEGAN:语音增强生成对抗网络”中提出的现有算法。然后使用该模型产生的生成器来恢复退化的语音音频。本文详细介绍了由于使用弃用代码而导致的后续兼容性和操作问题,这些问题阻碍了训练模型的成功开发。本文进一步考察了当前机器学习的挑战、限制和兼容性。
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引用次数: 0
Exploration of Endogenous Constraints Leading to Failure of Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Developing Countries (A Case Study of Mallam, Greater Accra Region of Ghana) 发展中国家中小微企业失败的内生约束探析(以加纳大阿克拉地区马拉姆为例)
Emmanuel Kwabla Ocloo, Ebenezer Malcalm, G. Kumar
Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are considered the most enterprises that create jobs in the country when running consistently and very well leading to the achievement of high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflecting in the macro economy. However, this inheritance and dreams of MSMEs are not realized due to some endogenous (internal) metrics or factors. The study seeks to investigate the underlying internal factors leading to failure of selected MSMEs in Mallam in Greater Accra Region of Ghana. However, the entire population targeted for this research was 85 while 70 respondents were randomly drawn out of the total population. The 70 selected respondents assisted in proper flow of information required for the success of the research.The research has employed descriptive research design since it portrays accurate responses from owners that are targeted, MSMEs’ managers in the targeted population. Structured questionnaires were used to collect primary data through direct interview of entrepreneurs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection were applied in this study. The collected data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The findings unraveled two set of endogenous constraints such as entrepreneurial constraints and business or enterprise constraints that lead selected MSMEs to fail in their businesses. Some of the entrepreneurial constraints are poor skills in management, gender and age of entrepreneur, lack of education, and lack of experience. On the other hand, the business challenges are lack of capital, lack of recording accounting data, poor business plan, age and size of company.The study would assist industry players to apply the various constraints identified in their decision-making process. In addition, the research would contribute to existing literature.
微型中小企业(MSMEs)被认为是在该国创造就业机会最多的企业,在持续运行和非常好的情况下,实现了反映在宏观经济中的高国内生产总值(GDP)。然而,由于一些内源性(内部)指标或因素,中小微企业的这种继承和梦想并没有实现。本研究旨在调查导致加纳大阿克拉地区马拉姆中小微企业失败的潜在内部因素。然而,本次研究的目标人群是85人,而70名受访者是随机抽取的。70个选定的答复者协助了研究成功所需的适当信息流动。该研究采用了描述性研究设计,因为它描绘了目标人群中的业主,中小微企业经理的准确反应。采用结构化问卷法,通过对企业家的直接访谈收集原始数据。本研究采用定性与定量相结合的数据收集方法。收集的数据使用SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences)软件进行分析。研究结果揭示了两组内生约束,如创业约束和商业或企业约束,导致选定的中小微企业在其业务中失败。一些创业的制约因素是管理技能差,企业家的性别和年龄,缺乏教育,缺乏经验。另一方面,商业挑战是缺乏资金,缺乏记录会计数据,糟糕的商业计划,公司的年龄和规模。这项研究将协助工业参与者应用其决策过程中确定的各种限制因素。此外,该研究将有助于现有文献。
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引用次数: 0
Selective Blocking Approach of User Equipment in Restricted Communication Zones 限制通信区内用户设备的选择性阻塞方法
Michael Agyare, J. J. Kponyo, F. Oduro-Gyimah
A selective mobile phone communication blocking active interceptor system for specific mobile phone restricted zones is designed. The system provides eligibility of communication based on the type of communication service permitted for the specific restricted locations. The designed system was simulated using a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) toolbox with a set of IF-THEN rules and membership functions (MFs) for the input and output of the system. The eligibility for communication services was designed to suit specific user locations. These locations were converted into input triangular MFs. The output is the decision (“allow” and “not allow”) for each of the inputs. S-shape and Z-shape MFs were used as the output decision variables. The results indicate selective blocking of communication services according to the type of communication service permitted for a specific location. In addition, privileged users were given total access to all communication services for each specific location.
设计了一种针对特定手机禁区的选择性手机通信阻断有源拦截系统。该系统根据特定受限制地点所允许的通信服务类型提供通信资格。利用模糊推理系统(FIS)工具箱对所设计的系统进行仿真,该工具箱采用一组IF-THEN规则和隶属度函数(mf)作为系统的输入和输出。通信服务的资格是为适应特定用户位置而设计的。这些位置被转换成输入三角形mf。输出是对每个输入的决定(“允许”和“不允许”)。s形和z形mf作为输出决策变量。结果表明,根据特定位置允许的通信服务类型,可以选择性地阻塞通信服务。此外,享有特权的用户可以完全访问每个特定地点的所有通信服务。
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引用次数: 0
Cyber Threat Ontology and Adversarial Machine Learning Attacks: Analysis and Prediction Perturbance 网络威胁本体和对抗性机器学习攻击:分析和预测扰动
Abel Yeboah-Ofori, Umar Mukhtar Ismail, Tymoteusz Swidurski, F. Opoku-Boateng
Machine learning has been used in the cybersecurity domain to predict cyberattack trends. However, adversaries can inject malicious data into the dataset during training and testing to cause perturbance and predict false narratives. It has become challenging to analyse and predicate cyberattack correlations due to their fuzzy nature and lack of understanding of the threat landscape. Thus, it is imperative to use cyber threat ontology (CTO) concepts to extract relevant attack instances in CSC security for knowledge representation. This paper explores the challenges of CTO and adversarial machine learning (AML) attacks for threat prediction to improve cybersecurity. The novelty contributions are threefold. First, CTO concepts are considered for semantic mapping and definition of relationships for explicit knowledge of threat indicators. Secondly, AML techniques are deployed maliciously to manipulate algorithms during training and testing to predict false classifications models. Finally, we discuss the performance analysis of the classification models and how CTO provides automated means. The result shows that analysis of AML attacks and CTO concepts could be used for validating a mediated schema for specific vulnerabilities.
机器学习已被用于网络安全领域,以预测网络攻击趋势。然而,攻击者可以在训练和测试期间将恶意数据注入数据集,以引起扰动并预测错误的叙述。由于网络攻击的模糊性和缺乏对威胁环境的理解,分析和预测网络攻击的相关性变得具有挑战性。因此,利用网络威胁本体(CTO)的概念提取CSC安全中的相关攻击实例进行知识表示势在必行。本文探讨了CTO和对抗性机器学习(AML)攻击对威胁预测的挑战,以提高网络安全。新奇的贡献有三个方面。首先,考虑了CTO概念的语义映射和威胁指示器显式知识的关系定义。其次,在训练和测试期间恶意部署AML技术来操纵算法以预测错误的分类模型。最后,我们讨论了分类模型的性能分析以及CTO如何提供自动化的方法。结果表明,对AML攻击和CTO概念的分析可用于验证针对特定漏洞的中介模式。
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引用次数: 2
A DSS-based Comparator for Facial Race Age Estimation 基于 DSS 的面部种族年龄估计比较器
Ebenezer Nii Ayi Hammond, Shijie Zhou, Qihe Liu
Facial age estimation is an essential feature in many applications satisfying the need to provide users with content that corresponds to their ages. However, providing an inclusive facial age estimation solution that is also high-performing is challenging due to the many different factors that influence the face. This article leverages DeepSets for Symmetric Elements (DSS) to propose an approach that aims to extract a reliable set of rich feature vectors for age estimation. It combines a DSS feature extractor, ternary classifier, and a race determiner. Precisely, the extractor consists of a siamese-like layer that applies a regular convolutional neural network to input images and an aggregation module that sums up all of the images and then adds them to the output from the siamese layer. To estimate the age, the ternary classifier obtains the feature vectors seeking to classify them into three possible outcomes that correspond to younger than, similar to, or older than. The correlation is achieved using identical pairs of input and reference images that belong to the same race. The result indicates the similarity between the images: the higher the score, the closer the similarity. With an accuracy of 94.8%, 95.2%, and 90.5% on the MORPH II, a race-inclusive dataset, and the FG-NET, we demonstrate that our proposal exemplifies facial age estimation particularly when the race factor is considered in the estimation.
面部年龄估算是许多应用中的一项基本功能,它能满足为用户提供与其年龄相符的内容的需求。然而,由于影响人脸的因素多种多样,要提供一种具有包容性且性能卓越的人脸年龄估计解决方案具有很大的挑战性。本文利用对称元素深度集(DeepSets for Symmetric Elements,DSS)提出了一种方法,旨在为年龄估计提取一组可靠的丰富特征向量。它结合了 DSS 特征提取器、三元分类器和种族判定器。准确地说,特征提取器由一个类似连体的层和一个聚合模块组成,前者对输入图像应用常规卷积神经网络,后者对所有图像进行汇总,然后将其添加到连体层的输出中。为了估算年龄,三元分类器获取特征向量,将其分为三种可能的结果,分别对应于小于、类似于或大于。相关性是使用属于同一种族的相同输入图像和参考图像对来实现的。结果显示了图像之间的相似度:得分越高,相似度越高。在包含种族的数据集 MORPH II 和 FG-NET 上,我们的准确率分别为 94.8%、95.2% 和 90.5%,证明了我们的建议是面部年龄估算的典范,尤其是在估算中考虑种族因素时。
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引用次数: 0
[Title page iii] [标题页iii]
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2021 International Conference on Computing, Computational Modelling and Applications (ICCMA)
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