Infectious Diseases of Poverty最新文献

Background: As one of the non-pharmacological interventions to control the transmission of COVID-19, determining the quarantine duration is mainly based on the accurate estimates of the incubation period. However, patients with coarse information of the exposure date, as well as infections other than the symptomatic, were not taken into account in previously published studies. Thus, by using the statistical method dealing with the interval-censored data, we assessed the quarantine duration for both common and uncommon infections. The latter type includes the presymptomatic, the asymptomatic and the recurrent test positive patients.

Methods: As of 10 December 2020, information on cases have been collected from the English and Chinese databases, including Pubmed, Google scholar, CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) and Wanfang. Official websites and medias were also searched as data sources. All data were transformed into doubly interval-censored and the accelerated failure time model was applied. By estimating the incubation period and the time-to-event distribution of worldwide COVID-19 patients, we obtain the large percentiles for determining and suggesting the quarantine policies. For symptomatic and presymptomatic COVID-19 patients, the incubation time is the duration from exposure to symptom onset. For the asymptomatic, we substitute the date of first positive result of nucleic acid testing for that of symptom onset. Furthermore, the time from hospital discharge or getting negative test result to the positive recurrence has been calculated for recurrent positive patients.

Results: A total of 1920 laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases were included. Among all uncommon infections, 34.1% (n = 55) of them developed symptoms or were identified beyond fourteen days. Based on all collected cases, the 95th and 99th percentiles were estimated to be 16.2 days (95% CI 15.5-17.0) and 22.9 days (21.7‒24.3) respectively. Besides, we got similar estimates based on merely symptomatic and presymptomatic infections as 15.1 days (14.4‒15.7) and 21.1 days (20.0‒22.2).

Conclusions: There are a certain number of infected people who require longer quarantine duration. Our findings well support the current practice of the extended active monitoring. To further prevent possible transmissions induced and facilitated by such infectious outliers after the 14-days quarantine, properly prolonging the quarantine duration could be prudent for high-risk scenarios and in regions with insufficient test resources.

Background: Chagas disease is endemic in Latin America and, over the last few decades, due to population movements, the disease has spread to other continents. Early diagnosis and treatment are critical in terms of improving outcomes for those living with Chagas disease. However, poor knowledge and awareness is one of barriers that affects access to Chagas disease diagnosis and treatment for the population at risk. Information regarding immigrants' knowledge concerning Chagas disease control and prevention is insufficient in non-endemic countries and, therefore, this study sought to assess Chagas disease knowledge and awareness within the Bolivian community residing in Madrid.

Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out in March-August 2017. A total of 376 Bolivians answered a structured questionnaire. A knowledge index was created based on respondents' knowledge about transmission, symptoms, diagnosis, and place to seek treatment. Multivariate logistic regressions analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with respondents' knowledge of Chagas disease.

Results: A total 159 (42.4%) of Bolivians interviewed about their knowledge of Chagas disease were men and 217 (57.6%) were women. Vinchuca was mentioned as mode of transmission by 71% of the Bolivians surveyed, while only 9% mentioned vertical transmission. Almost half of the Bolivians did not know any symptom of Chagas disease and only 47% knew that a specific blood test is necessary for diagnosis. Most of Bolivians were aware of the severity of Chagas disease, but 45% of Bolivians said that there is no cure for Chagas and 96% did not know any treatment. Based on the index of knowledge generated, only 34% of Bolivians had a good knowledge about Chagas disease transmission, symptoms, diagnosis and treatment. According to the multiple logistic regression analysis, knowledge regarding Chagas disease, diagnosis and treatment was significantly higher amongst older Bolivians who had secondary education at least, as well as amongst those who had already been tested for Chagas disease.

Conclusions: This study found that most of the Bolivian population living in Spain had poor knowledge about Chagas disease transmission, symptoms, diagnostic methods and treatment. A poor understanding of the disease transmission and management is one of the most important barriers when it comes to searching for early diagnosis and appropriate care.

Background: The China National Health Commission-Gates TB Project Phase III implemented a comprehensive TB control model including multiple interventions to address the burden of drug-resistant TB (DRTB). This study aims to evaluate the quality of DRTB clinical services and assess the financial burden of DRTB patients during the intervention period.

Methods: A mixed-methods approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in the three project provinces: Zhejiang, Jilin and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The quantitative data included de-identified DRTB registry data during 2015-2018 in project provinces from China CDC, medical records of DRTB patients registered in 2018 (n = 106) from designated hospitals, and a structured DRTB patient survey in six sample prefectures in 2019. The quality of clinical services was evaluated using seven indicators across patient screening, diagnosis and treatment. Logistic regression was conducted to explore factors associated with the extremely high financial burden. Semi-structured in-depth interviews with policymakers and focus group discussions with physicians and DRTB patients were conducted to understand the interventions implemented and their impacts.

Results: The percentage of bacterially confirmed patients taking a drug susceptibility test (DST) increased significantly between 2015 and 2018: from 57.4 to 93.6% in Zhejiang, 12.5 to 86.5% in Jilin, and 29.7 to 91.4% in Ningxia. The treatment enrollment rate among diagnosed DRTB patients also increased significantly and varied from 73 to 82% in the three provinces in 2018. Over 90% of patients in Zhejiang and Jilin and 75% in Ningxia remained in treatment by the end of the first six months' treatment. Among all survey respondents 77.5% incurred extremely high financial burden of treatment. Qualitative results showed that interventions on promoting rapid DST technologies and patient referral were successfully implemented, but the new financing policies for reducing patients' financial burden were not implemented as planned.

Conclusions: The quality of DRTB related clinical services has been significantly improved following the comprehensive interventions, while the financial burden of DRTB patients remains high due to the delay in implementing financing policies. Stronger political commitment and leadership are required for multi-channel financing to provide additional financial support to DRTB patients.

Malaria was once one of the most serious public health problems in China, with more than 30 million malaria cases annually before 1949. However, the disease burden has sharply declined and the epidemic areas has shrunken after the implementation of an integrated malaria control and elimination strategy, especially since 2000. Till now, China has successfully scaled up its efforts to become malaria-free and is currently being evaluated for malaria-free certification by the WHO. In the battle against malaria, China's efforts have spanned generations, reducing from an incidence high of 122.9/10 000 (6.97 million cases) in 1954 to 0.06/10 000 (7855 cases) in 2010. In 2017, for the first time, China reached zero indigenous case of malaria, putting the country on track to record three consecutive years of zero transmission by 2020, accoding to the National Malaria Elimination Action Plan (2010-2020). China's efforts to eliminate malaria is impressive, and the country is dedicated to sharing its lessons learned in malaria elimination-including, but not limited to, the application of novel genetics-based approaches-with other nations through new initiatives. China will promote international relationships and establish collaborative platforms on a wide range of topics in roughly 65 countries, including 20 African nations. China's experience in applying innovative genetics-based approaches and tools to characterize malaria parasite populations, including surveillance of markers related to drug resistance, categorization of cases as indigenous or imported, and objective identification of the likely sources of infections to inform efforts towards malaria control and elimination in Africa could offer game-changing results when applied to settings with ongoing transmission.

Background: Dengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the years. The main objective of this study was to explore the epidemiological patterns of dengue since its first outbreak (2006) to 2019 in Nepal.

Methods: This study is a retrospective analysis that covers the last 14 years (2006-2019) of reported dengue cases from Epidemiology Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal. Reported cases were plotted over time and maps of reported case incidence were generated (from 2016 through 2019). An ecological analysis of environmental predictors of case incidence was conducted using negative binomial regression.

Results: While endemic dengue has been reported in Nepal since 2006, the case load has increased over time and in 2019 a total of 17 992 dengue cases were reported from 68 districts (from all seven provinces). Compared to the case incidence in 2016, incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-15.3] and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; 95% CI 45.8-438.4). A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI 0.01-0.20). However, the association between elevation and reported cases varied across the years. In 2018 there was a cluster of cases reported from high elevation Kaski District of Gandaki Province. Our results suggest that dengue infections are increasing in magnitude and expanding out of the lowland areas to higher elevations over time.

Conclusions: There is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the lowland Terai region, with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14 years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics.

Background: Malaria and neglected communicable protozoa parasitic diseases, such as leishmaniasis, and trypanosomiasis, are among the otherwise called diseases for neglected communities, which are habitual in underprivileged populations in developing tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Some of the currently available therapeutic drugs have some limitations such as toxicity and questionable efficacy and long treatment period, which have encouraged resistance. These have prompted many researchers to focus on finding new drugs that are safe, effective, and affordable from marine environments. The aim of this review was to show the diversity, structural scaffolds, in-vitro or in-vivo efficacy, and recent progress made in the discovery/isolation of marine natural products (MNPs) with potent bioactivity against malaria, leishmaniasis, and trypanosomiasis.

Main text: We searched PubMed and Google scholar using Boolean Operators (AND, OR, and NOT) and the combination of related terms for articles on marine natural products (MNPs) discovery published only in English language from January 2016 to June 2020. Twenty nine articles reported the isolation, identification and antiparasitic activity of the isolated compounds from marine environment. A total of 125 compounds were reported to have been isolated, out of which 45 were newly isolated compounds. These compounds were all isolated from bacteria, a fungus, sponges, algae, a bryozoan, cnidarians and soft corals. In recent years, great progress is being made on anti-malarial drug discovery from marine organisms with the isolation of these potent compounds. Comparably, some of these promising antikinetoplastid MNPs have potency better or similar to conventional drugs and could be developed as both antileishmanial and antitrypanosomal drugs. However, very few of these MNPs have a pharmaceutical destiny due to lack of the following: sustainable production of the bioactive compounds, standard efficient screening methods, knowledge of the mechanism of action, partnerships between researchers and pharmaceutical industries.

Conclusions: It is crystal clear that marine organisms are a rich source of antiparasitic compounds, such as alkaloids, terpenoids, peptides, polyketides, terpene, coumarins, steroids, fatty acid derivatives, and lactones. The current and future technological innovation in natural products drug discovery will bolster the drug armamentarium for malaria and neglected tropical diseases.

Background: The detection of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is a major health concern in China. We aim to summarize interventions related to the screening and detection of DR-TB in Jiangsu Province, analyse their impact, and highlight policy implications for improving the prevention and control of DR-TB.

Methods: We selected six prefectures from south, central and north Jiangsu Province. We reviewed policy documents between 2008 and 2019, and extracted routine TB patient registration data from the TB Information Management System (TBIMS) between 2013 and 2019. We used the High-quality Health System Framework to structure the analysis. We performed statistical analysis and logistic regression to assess the impact of different policy interventions on DR-TB detection.

Results: Three prefectures in Jiangsu introduced DR-TB related interventions between 2008 and 2010 in partnership with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Gates Foundation). By 2017, all prefectures in Jiangsu had implemented provincial level DR-TB policies, such as use of rapid molecular tests (RMT), and expanded drug susceptibility testing (DST) for populations at risk of DR-TB. The percentage of pulmonary TB cases confirmed by bacteriology increased from 30.0% in 2013 to over 50.0% in all prefectures by 2019, indicating that the implementation of new diagnostics has provided more sensitive testing results than the traditional smear microscopy. At the same time, the proportion of bacteriologically confirmed cases tested for drug resistance has increased substantially, indicating that the intervention of expanding the coverage of DST has reached more of the population at risk of DR-TB. Prefectures that implemented interventions with support from the Global Fund and the Gates Foundation had better detection performance of DR-TB patiens compared to those did not receive external support. However, the disparities in DR-TB detection across prefectures significantly narrowed after the implementation of provincial DR-TB polices.

Conclusions: The introduction of new diagnostics, including RMT, have improved the detection of DR-TB. Prefectures that received support from the Global Fund and the Gates Foundation had better detection of DR-TB. Additionally, the implementation of provincial DR-TB polices led to improvements in the detection of DR-TB across all prefectures.

Background: Male sex workers are at high-risk for acquisition of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We quantified incidence rates of STIs and identified their time-varying predictors among male sex workers in Mexico City.

Methods: From January 2012 to May 2014, male sex workers recruited from the largest HIV clinic and community sites in Mexico City were tested for chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis, and HIV at baseline, 6-months, and 12-months. Incidence rates with 95% bootstrapped confidence limits were calculated. We examined potential time-varying predictors using generalized estimating equations for a population averaged model.

Results: Among 227 male sex workers, median age was 24 and baseline HIV prevalence was 32%. Incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were as follows: HIV [5.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.15-10.31], chlamydia (5.15; 95% CI: 2.58-9.34), gonorrhea (3.93; 95% CI: 1.88-7.83), syphilis (13.04; 95% CI: 8.24-19.94), hepatitis B (2.11; 95% CI: 0.53-4.89), hepatitis C (0.95; 95% CI: 0.00-3.16), any STI except HIV (30.99; 95% CI: 21.73-40.26), and any STI including HIV (50.08; 95% CI: 37.60-62.55). In the multivariable-adjusted model, incident STI (excluding HIV) were lower among those who reported consistently using condoms during anal and vaginal intercourse (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.00-0.68) compared to those who reported inconsistently using condoms during anal and vaginal intercourse.

Conclusions: Incidence of STIs is high among male sex workers in Mexico City. Consistent condom use is an important protective factor for STIs, and should be an important component of interventions to prevent incident infections.

Background: Despite major reductions in malaria burden across Myanmar, clusters of the disease continue to persist in specific subregions. This study aimed to assess the predictors of test positivity among people living in Paletwa Township of Chin State, an area of persistently high malaria burden.

Methods: Four villages with the highest malaria incidence from Paletwa Township were purposively selected. The characteristics of 1045 subjects seeking malaria diagnosis from the four assigned village health volunteers from January to December, 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Their household conditions and surroundings were also recorded using a checklist. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were applied to investigate potential associations between individual and household characteristics and malaria diagnosis.

Results: In 2017, the Paletwa township presented 20.9% positivity and an annual parasite index of 46.9 cases per 1000 people. Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant species and accounted for more than 80.0% of all infections. Among 1045 people presenting at a clinic with malaria symptoms, 31.1% were diagnosed with malaria. Predictors for test positivity included living in a hut [adjusted odds ratios (a OR): 2.3, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.2-4.6], owning farm animals (aOR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6), using non-septic type of toilets (aOR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-8.4), presenting with fever (aOR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0), having a malaria episode within the last year (aOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4-5.8), traveling outside the village in the previous 14 days (aOR: 4.5, 95% CI: 1.5-13.4), and not using bed nets (a OR: 3.4, 95% CI: 2.3-5.1). There were no statistically significant differences by age or gender in this present analysis.

Conclusions: The results from this study, including a high proportion of P. falciparum infections, little difference in age, sex, or occupation, suggest that malaria is a major burden for these study villages. Targeted health education campaigns should be introduced to strengthen synchronous diagnosis-seeking behaviors, tighten treatment adherence, receiving a diagnosis after traveling to endemic regions, and using bed nets properly. We suggest increased surveillance, early diagnosis, and treatment efforts to control the disease and then to consider the local elimination.

Background: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused substantial disruptions to health services in the low and middle-income countries with a high burden of other diseases, such as malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential in malaria-endemic countries in Africa.

Methods: We present a data-driven method to quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), could lead to the change of malaria transmission potential in 2020. First, we adopt a particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate epidemiological parameters in each country by fitting the time series of the cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases. Then, we simulate the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under two groups of NPIs: (1) contact restriction and social distancing, and (2) early identification and isolation of cases. Based on the simulated epidemic curves, we quantify the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and NPIs on the distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Finally, by treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020, we evaluate the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential based on the notion of vectorial capacity.

Results: We conduct case studies in four malaria-endemic countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia, in Africa. The epidemiological parameters (i.e., the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the duration of infection [Formula: see text]) of COVID-19 in each country are estimated as follows: Ethiopia ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), Nigeria ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), Tanzania ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), and Zambia ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]). Based on the estimated epidemiological parameters, the epidemic curves simulated under various NPIs indicated that the earlier the interventions are implemented, the better the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, the effect of combined NPIs is better than contact restriction and social distancing only. By treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020 as a baseline, our results show that even with stringent NPIs, malaria transmission potential will remain higher than expected in the second half of 2020.

Conclusions: By quantifying the impact of various NPI response to the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential, this study provides a way to jointly address the syndemic between COVID-19 and malaria in malaria-endemic countries in Africa. The results suggest that the early intervention of COVID-19 can effectively reduce the scale of the epidemic and mitigate its impact on malaria transmission potential.