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A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union 欧亚一体化十年:对欧亚经济联盟的事后非参数评估
Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100506
Pierluigi Montalbano , Augusto Cerqua , Zhansaya Temerbulatova

This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after a decade of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with the exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent, which are most similar in terms of pre-treatment trends and features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union but find more positive net effects of the more recent integration steps. Our results ask for additional efforts to complete the Eurasian integration and let its member countries fully benefit from its hoped-for long-term effects.

本文对欧亚一体化实施十年后对成员国双边贸易的影响进行了合理的事后评估。我们克服了当前贸易协定影响实证分析的主要局限性,即关税和非关税壁垒的汇总以及可能存在的自我选择偏差,采用了一种专门设计的非参数方法,以充分利用时间序列横截面数据。因此,我们将欧亚协定成员国的贸易流量与位于欧亚大陆的出口国-进口国对进行了比较,这些国家在处理前的趋势和特征方面最为相似。我们的研究结果证实了之前关于欧亚关税同盟缺乏显著影响的文献,但发现最近的一体化步骤产生了更积极的净影响。我们的结果要求进一步努力完成欧亚一体化,让其成员国充分受益于其预期的长期效应。
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引用次数: 0
(Mis)Alignment between observed and expected monetary policy: The case of Brazil (观察到的货币政策与预期的货币政策(不)一致:巴西的案例
Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100505
Jose Angelo Divino , Carlos Haraguchi

The economic agents’ perception of the monetary policy might not coincide with the central bank conduct. We investigate this issue by using both actual and expected data identified by professional forecasters for Brazil, an emerging economy that has long adopted the inflation-targeting regime. We estimate observed, expected, and forward-looking interest rate rules, apply Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) tests, assess restrictions implied by models of information rigidity, and perform several robustness checks. The estimated policy rules respond to inflation deviations and output gap according to theoretical grounds. Professional forecasters, however, do not believe in aggressiveness to fight inflation in longer forecasting horizons, while FIRE tests unveil information rigidity in the short run. There is a misalignment between the Central Bank practice and the private agents’ perception of the monetary policy in the long but not in the short run, suggesting unanchored long-term inflation expectations.

经济主体对货币政策的看法可能与中央银行的行为并不一致。巴西是一个长期采用通胀目标制的新兴经济体,我们利用专业预测人员确定的实际数据和预期数据对这一问题进行了研究。我们估算了观察利率规则、预期利率规则和前瞻性利率规则,应用了全信息理性预期(FIRE)检验,评估了信息刚性模型所隐含的限制,并进行了若干稳健性检验。估计的政策规则根据理论依据对通货膨胀偏差和产出缺口做出了反应。然而,专业预测者并不认为在较长预测期限内应采取积极措施来应对通胀,而 FIRE 检验则揭示了短期内的信息刚性。中央银行的做法与私人代理人对货币政策的看法在长期不一致,而在短期内不一致,这表明长期通胀预期没有锚定。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of PTA design: Insights from machine learning PTA 设计的决定因素:机器学习的启示
Pub Date : 2024-04-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100504
Stepan Gordeev , Sandro Steinbach

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have emerged as the dominant form of international trade governance. Provisions included in PTAs are increasingly numerous, broad in their purview, deep in their scope, and varied between agreements. We study the economic, political, and geographic determinants of PTA design differences. For each of the hundreds of classified PTA provisions, we consider 287 country-pair characteristics as potential determinants, covering many individual mechanisms the literature has studied. We employ random forests, a supervised machine learning technique, to handle this high dimensionality and complexity. We use a robust variable importance measure to identify the most critical determinants of the inclusion of each PTA provision. Contagion due to competition for export markets, geographic proximity, and governance quality emerge as essential determinants of PTA design. These results motivate future exploration of individual mechanisms our exercise points to.

优惠贸易协定(PTAs)已成为国际贸易治理的主要形式。优惠贸易协定中包含的条款越来越多,范围越来越广,程度越来越深,而且各协定之间的差异也越来越大。我们研究了 PTA 设计差异的经济、政治和地理决定因素。对于数百项分类的 PTA 条款中的每一项,我们都考虑了 287 个国家对的特征作为潜在的决定因素,涵盖了文献中研究过的许多个别机制。我们采用随机森林(一种有监督的机器学习技术)来处理这种高维度和复杂性。我们使用稳健的变量重要性度量来确定纳入每项 PTA 条款的最关键决定因素。出口市场竞争、地理邻近性和治理质量导致的传染成为 PTA 设计的重要决定因素。这些结果促使我们在未来探索我们的工作所指向的个别机制。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies G10 货币之间的极端下行风险关联性和投资组合对冲
Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100503
Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah , Mariem Brahim , Jean-Etienne Carlotti , Aviral Kumar Tiwari , Walid Mensi

This study investigates the frequency connectedness among foreign exchange markets of G10 countries, focusing on tail risk and its implications for portfolio management. To do so, we use a novel framework that combines the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CAViaR) model with the novel time-varying frequency and quantile connectedness method developed by Chatziantoniou et al. (2022) based on Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and Ando et al. (2018) approach. A key value of this paper to the literature is the provision of fresh empirical evidence on the extreme downside linkages among the markets examined. From the average connectedness measures, the top shock transmitters within the network were EUR, NOK, AUD, SEK, and NZD, while the main shock receivers emerged to be JPY and CHF, followed by CAD and GBP. We note that events in the major funding markets (the Eurozone, Japan) have a higher impact on the participants in these same markets than in relatively small markets (New Zealand, Norway). From the dynamic connectedness results, the magnitude of connectedness for the entire sample period increased during the COVID-19 era, compared to the magnitude before the COVID-19 outbreak. The cumulative spillover also reveals that USDNOK is the vastest net transmitter of spillovers to other markets, including SEK, CHF, and AUD. However, the EUR is the largest net beneficiary followed by JPY and CAD. Findings from the time-varying extreme downside analysis suggest that throughout the period, SEK and NOK are the other currencies' strongest and most frequent net spillover shock emitters for the short-, medium-, and long-term dynamics. Currency portfolio implications are discussed.

本研究调查了 G10 国家外汇市场的频率关联性,重点关注尾部风险及其对投资组合管理的影响。为此,我们使用了一个新颖的框架,该框架将条件自回归风险价值(CAViaR)模型与 Chatziantoniou 等人(2022 年)在 Baruník 和 Křehlík (2018 年) 和 Ando 等人(2018 年)方法基础上开发的新颖时变频率和量子关联性方法相结合。本文对文献的一个重要价值是提供了关于所研究市场之间极端下行联系的新经验证据。从平均连通性度量来看,网络内最大的冲击传播者是欧元、挪威克朗、澳元、瑞典克朗和新西兰元,而主要的冲击接收者是日元和瑞士法郎,其次是加元和英镑。我们注意到,与相对较小的市场(新西兰、挪威)相比,主要融资市场(欧元区、日本)发生的事件对这些市场参与者的影响更大。从动态关联度结果来看,与 COVID-19 爆发前的关联度相比,整个样本期间的关联度在 COVID-19 期间有所上升。累积溢出效应还显示,美元兑挪威克朗是向其他市场(包括瑞典克朗、瑞士法郎和澳元)溢出效应最大的净传播者。然而,欧元是最大的净受益者,其次是日元和加元。时变极端下行分析的结果表明,在整个期间,瑞典克朗和挪威克朗是其他货币在短期、中期和长期动态中最强和最频繁的净溢出冲击发射器。本文讨论了货币组合的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does trade openness improve or worsen public governance in sub-Saharan Africa? 贸易开放会改善还是恶化撒哈拉以南非洲的公共治理?
Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100502
Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem , Cédric Feyom

The literature on the effect of trade openness on public governance shows contrasting results. Using a renewed empirical strategy, we contribute to the understanding of this indeterminacy by studying the influence of trade openness on public governance in Sub-Saharan Africa. We also examine how this effect varies with structural characteristics that may be subject to reforms. In this respect, we use an original measure of trade openness. We consider public governance and its three dimensions, namely economic governance, political governance, and institutional governance. Overall, we find that trade openness improves public governance, political governance, and economic governance. On the other hand, it worsens institutional governance. Moreover, these effects of trade openness on the dimensions of public governance depend on the defined levels of technology transfer, foreign direct investment, and natural resources. Our results are robust to different openness and governance indicators, alternative specifications, study periods, endogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. Above all, they highlight the interest of dissociating public governance to understand the contrast observed in the empirical literature.

关于贸易开放对公共治理的影响的文献显示了截然不同的结果。我们采用新的实证策略,通过研究贸易开放对撒哈拉以南非洲公共治理的影响,有助于理解这种不确定性。我们还研究了这种影响是如何随可能进行改革的结构特征而变化的。在这方面,我们使用了一种独创的贸易开放度衡量标准。我们考虑了公共治理及其三个维度,即经济治理、政治治理和制度治理。总体而言,我们发现贸易开放会改善公共治理、政治治理和经济治理。另一方面,贸易开放会恶化制度治理。此外,贸易开放对公共治理的影响取决于技术转让、外国直接投资和自然资源的定义水平。我们的研究结果对不同的开放度和治理指标、替代规格、研究时期、内生性和横截面依赖性都是稳健的。最重要的是,它们凸显了将公共治理分离开来以理解实证文献中观察到的反差的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation 航运成本不确定性、内生制度转换和全球通胀驱动因素
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100500
Christina Anderl , Guglielmo Maria Caporale

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and led to large increases in shipping costs. This paper provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al. (2023). The uncertainty indicator measures overall risk in the shipping market and is shown to represent a useful addition to the existing set of economic and financial uncertainty indices. Both the shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures are then included in structural VAR models for the US, the UK, and the euro area to examine the pass-through to headline CPI, core CPI, PPI, and import price inflation vis-à-vis other global and domestic shocks. The results suggest that shipping cost uncertainty shocks have sizeable effects on all inflation measures and are characterized by a stronger pass-through than that of other domestic or global shocks. Unlike the latter, they also significantly affect core CPI inflation. These findings imply that shipping cost mean and uncertainty should also be considered by policymakers when assessing the global drivers of inflation.

最近的 Covid-19 大流行扰乱了全球供应链,导致航运成本大幅上升。本文利用 Chang 等人(2023 年)开发的具有动态反馈和相互作用的内生制度转换模型,提供了航运成本均值和不确定性度量。不确定性指标衡量航运市场的整体风险,是对现有经济和金融不确定性指数的有益补充。然后,将航运成本均值和不确定性度量纳入美国、英国和欧元区的结构 VAR 模型中,以研究其他全球和国内冲击对总体 CPI、核心 CPI、PPI 和进口价格通胀的传递。结果表明,航运成本的不确定性冲击对所有通胀指标都有相当大的影响,其传递性强于其他国内或全球冲击。与全球冲击不同的是,航运成本不确定性冲击对核心消费物价指数通胀也有显著影响。这些研究结果表明,决策者在评估通货膨胀的全球驱动因素时,也应考虑航运成本的平均值和不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
The gravity of Offshore Financial Centers: Estimating real FDIs using a binary choice model 离岸金融中心的引力:利用二元选择模型估算实际外国直接投资
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100501
Marco Albori, Alessio Anzuini, Fabrizio Ferriani, Luca Rossi

Fiscal and regulatory arbitrage opportunities in Offshore Financial Centers (OFCs) materially distort the economic analysis based on cross-border capital flows. However, despite its significance, there is limited information on the true scale of this phenomenon. This paper focuses on Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and fills this gap by using an extensive list of FDIs determinants and estimating a gravity-like binary choice specification to assess how much bilateral FDIs are driven by economic integration motives versus profit shifting opportunities. We find that the share of so-called phantom FDIs, after rising in 2010–15, stabilized at around 40% of total FDIs in recent years and that this share is systematically larger in OFCs, reconciling available evidence on the abnormal amount of recorded FDIs in these countries.

离岸金融中心(OFCs)的财政和监管套利机会严重扭曲了基于跨境资本流动的经济分析。然而,尽管这一现象十分重要,但有关其真实规模的信息却十分有限。本文以外商直接投资(FDI)为重点,通过使用大量的外商直接投资决定因素清单和类似重力的二元选择规范估算来评估双边外商直接投资在多大程度上受经济一体化动机和利润转移机会的驱动,从而填补了这一空白。我们发现,所谓 "幽灵外国直接投资 "的份额在 2010-15 年间有所上升,近年来稳定在外国直接投资总额的 40% 左右,而且这一份额在开放式金融中心系统性地更大,这与这些国家记录的外国直接投资异常数额的现有证据相吻合。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing the effect of foreign aid on industrialization: Evidence from Africa 分析外国援助对工业化的影响:非洲的证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100498
Honoré Tékam Oumbé , Ronald Djeunankan , Alice Kos A Mougnol

The importance of industrialization as an engine of economic growth and structural transformation has been largely documented. Despite the benefits of industrialization, Africa has witnessed a de-industrialization in recent decades. This means that some important determinants of industrialization remain unidentified in Africa. This study fills this gap by analysing the effect of foreign aid on industrialization in 42 African countries over the period 1995–2021. Using the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments, the following results are established. First, on average, foreign aid hurts industrialization in Africa. Second, the effect of foreign aid depends on the nature of the aid since education and energy aid improve industrialization while health and humanitarian aid negatively affect it. Third, we find a U-shaped relationship between foreign aid and industrialization. Interestingly, democracy and human capital can mitigate the negative effect of foreign aid on industrialization. These results have strong economic policy implications for African countries, showing that they should put in more effort to strengthen their level of democracy and human capital in order to enjoy the positive effect of foreign aid on industrialization. Finally, this research contributes to the development of aid distribution plans that support African nations' industrialization.

工业化作为经济增长和结构转型的引擎,其重要性已得到大量记载。尽管工业化带来了种种好处,但近几十年来,非洲却出现了去工业化的趋势。这意味着非洲工业化的一些重要决定因素仍未确定。本研究通过分析 1995-2021 年间外国援助对 42 个非洲国家工业化的影响,填补了这一空白。利用两步法广义矩法,得出了以下结果。首先,平均而言,外国援助损害了非洲的工业化。其次,外援的影响取决于援助的性质,因为教育和能源援助会提高工业化水平,而卫生和人道主义援助则会对工业化产生负面影响。第三,我们发现外援与工业化之间呈 U 型关系。有趣的是,民主和人力资本可以减轻外援对工业化的负面影响。这些结果对非洲国家的经济政策具有重要意义,表明非洲国家应加大力度加强民主和人力资本水平,以享受外援对工业化的积极影响。最后,本研究有助于制定支持非洲国家工业化的援助分配计划。
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引用次数: 0
Does private share of public external debt support economic growth in developing countries? 公共外债中的私人份额是否支持发展中国家的经济增长?
Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100499
Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa

Over the past years, developing countries have increased their borrowing from international private creditors. So far, however, little is known about the effect of public debt owed to international private creditors (private debt) on economic growth in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of private debt and its main components (i.e., commercial loans, and bond finance) on economic growth. Using panel data over 1970–2017 and covering 70 low -and middle-income countries, the paper finds a positive and significant effect of private debt on GDP per capita growth rate. Private debt appears to stimulate economic growth mainly by improving the efficiency of investment rather than its volume. However, there are differential effects: bond finance has a positive effect, while the effect of commercial loans on growth is negative. The paper discusses the policy implications of the main findings.

过去几年来,发展中国家增加了向国际私人债权人的借款。然而,迄今为止,人们对欠国际私人债权人的公共债务(私人债务)对发展中国家经济增长的影响知之甚少。本文分析了私人债务及其主要组成部分(即商业贷款和债券融资)对经济增长的影响。本文使用 1970-2017 年的面板数据,涵盖 70 个中低收入国家,发现私人债务对人均 GDP 增长率有积极而显著的影响。私人债务似乎主要通过提高投资效率而非投资数量来刺激经济增长。然而,这其中存在着不同的效应:债券融资具有正效应,而商业贷款对经济增长的效应则是负的。本文讨论了主要研究结果的政策含义。
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引用次数: 0
How do foreign-owned suppliers affect economic performance? Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms 外资供应商如何影响经济绩效?来自意大利制造业企业的证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100487
Michele Imbruno , Rosanna Pittiglio , Filippo Reganati

This paper examines how the presence of foreign-owned suppliers (Inward FDI in intermediate good sectors, called input IFDI) affects both the productivity and outward FDI propensity of domestic firms. Using data from Italian manufacturing firms over the period 2005–2012, we find that the degree of a firm's involvement in innovation activities is crucial. More specifically, input IFDI, on average, boosts aggregate productivity in sectors where the majority of firms are involved in innovation activities. These industry productivity gains are due to efficiency improvements within firms, as well as the reallocation of market shares towards more efficient firms. Conversely, in sectors where few firms are involved in innovation activities, input IFDI, on average, leads to productivity losses within firms, entailing larger market share reallocation towards the best performing firms. Our findings further demonstrate that in those sectors with a high degree of innovation activity, input IFDI increases domestic firms' propensity to invest abroad, whereas the opposite is true for the other sectors.

本文探讨了外资供应商的存在(中间产品部门的内向型外国直接投资,称为投入型外国直接投资)如何影响国内企业的生产率和外向型外国直接投资倾向。利用 2005-2012 年期间意大利制造业企业的数据,我们发现企业参与创新活动的程度至关重要。更具体地说,在大多数企业参与创新活动的行业,输入型外国直接投资平均提高了总体生产率。这些行业生产率的提高得益于企业内部效率的提高,以及市场份额向效率更高的企业的重新分配。相反,在只有少数企业参与创新活动的部门,投入型外国直接投资平均会导致企业内部的生产率损失,从而使更大的市场份额重新分配给表现最好的企业。我们的研究结果进一步表明,在创新活动频繁的部门,投入型外国直接投资会增加国内企业的海外投资倾向,而其他部门的情况恰恰相反。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Economics
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