International Economics最新文献

英文中文

Measuring political leader's geopolitical risk perceptions 衡量政治领导人的地缘政治风险认知

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100631

Asei Ito , Jaehwan Lim , Hongyong Zhang

Does a political leader's perception of geopolitical risk influence the real economy? If so, to what extent and through what mechanisms? Using local-language sources, we explore these questions by constructing a geopolitical risk index based on textual data from statements made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and examining its relationship to firms' investment behavior in China. The index shows notable spikes in April 2016, June 2018, and April 2022, corresponding to terrorist attacks in neighboring countries, U.S.-China tensions, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that an increase in the geopolitical risk index is associated with a decline in firms' investment rates. Specifically, a 100 % increase in the index leads to a 14.1 % reduction in investment. Notably, while firms with high effective interest rates and greater exposure to international trade are adversely affected by the geopolitical risk, politically connected firms are less affected, indicating their ability to mitigate its negative effects. Our findings advance the geopolitical risk literature by highlighting the role of political leaders' perceptions, utilizing local sources to measure this factor, and examining the moderating effect of political connections under geopolitical risks.

政治领导人对地缘政治风险的看法会影响实体经济吗？如果是，在多大程度上，通过什么机制？该指数在2016年4月、2018年6月和2022年4月出现了明显的峰值，对应的是邻国的恐怖袭击、美中关系紧张以及俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争。我们发现地缘政治风险指数的增加与企业投资率的下降有关。具体来说，指数增加100%导致投资减少14.1%。值得注意的是，虽然具有高实际利率和国际贸易敞口较大的公司受到地缘政治风险的不利影响，但具有政治关系的公司受到的影响较小，这表明它们有能力减轻地缘政治风险的负面影响。我们的研究结果通过强调政治领导人认知的作用，利用当地资源来衡量这一因素，并检查政治关系在地缘政治风险下的调节作用，从而推进了地缘政治风险文献。

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引用次数: 0

Global production scenarios: Actual unbundling, potential rebundling and geoeconomic rewiring across value chains 全球生产情景：跨价值链的实际拆分、潜在重新捆绑和地缘经济重新布线

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100616

Raffaele Giammetti , Ariel L. Wirkierman

We analyze the cross-country distributional effects of global production reconfiguration by means of two multisectoral accounting exercises. First, we simulate counterfactuals that decouple input structures from final demand composition, showing that it is not trade integration per se that determines value-added outcomes, but the fit between production architectures and final demand geography. Second, we model three geoeconomic fragmentation scenarios – involving unilateral provocation and retaliatory decoupling – based on bloc-specific trade restrictions among US-led, China-led and Non-Aligned country blocs. Results reveal asymmetric impacts: large, globally embedded economies face significant losses, while gains concentrate in geoeconomically aligned or flexibly positioned economies. Sectoral outcomes vary with value-chain positioning. The paper provides a global multisectoral accounting perspective to analyses of supply chain disruptions, emphasizing that the same inter-country input trade interdependence that once brought efficiency gains may now act as a constraint in shaping resilience under trade realignment.

我们通过两个多部门的会计练习来分析全球生产重组的跨国分配效应。首先，我们模拟了将输入结构与最终需求组成分离的反事实，表明决定增值结果的不是贸易整合本身，而是生产架构与最终需求地理之间的契合。其次，我们基于美国领导的、中国领导的和不结盟国家集团之间特定的贸易限制，模拟了三种地缘经济分裂情景——包括单边挑衅和报复性脱钩。研究结果揭示了不对称影响：全球一体化的大型经济体面临重大损失，而收益集中在地缘经济结盟或定位灵活的经济体。各行业的结果因价值链定位而异。本文为供应链中断分析提供了全球多部门会计视角，强调曾经带来效率提高的国家间投入贸易相互依赖，现在可能成为贸易调整下形成韧性的制约因素。

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引用次数: 0

IMF programs for growing out of debt: Evidence of a catalytic effect on foreign direct investment 国际货币基金组织摆脱债务的计划：对外国直接投资产生催化作用的证据

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100604

Grégory Donnat

The financing needs of developing countries are substantial due to repeated crises in recent years. In this global context, policymakers seek financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address balance of payments issues, despite developing countries' growing reluctance towards IMF loans tied to conditions and fear of adverse market reactions post-IMF agreement. This paper aims to explore whether IMF financial support can attract additional private investment to these countries, by identifying the presence of a catalytic effect of IMF programs between 1985 and 2021. Employing an instrumental variable approach to correct for selection bias, we find that IMF programs have a catalytic effect on foreign direct investment, especially programs involving longer-term IMF engagement conditioned on structural reforms in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, we show that IMF programs foster the attraction of greenfield FDI. However, the catalytic effect depends on the economic sector, particularly those characterized by low external financial dependence and high sunk costs. Finally, we highlight that medium-term IMF commitments contribute to reassuring investors regarding macroeconomic stability.

由于近年来危机不断，发展中国家的融资需求很大。在这种全球背景下，政策制定者寻求国际货币基金组织（IMF）的财政援助，以解决国际收支问题，尽管发展中国家越来越不愿意接受IMF有条件的贷款，并担心IMF达成协议后的不利市场反应。本文旨在通过确定1985年至2021年期间IMF计划的催化效应，探讨IMF的金融支持是否能吸引更多的私人投资到这些国家。采用工具变量方法来纠正选择偏差，我们发现IMF项目对外国直接投资具有催化作用，特别是涉及以低收入和中低收入国家结构性改革为条件的IMF长期参与的项目。此外，我们表明，国际货币基金组织的计划促进了绿地FDI的吸引力。但是，催化作用取决于经济部门，特别是那些对外部财政依赖性低和沉没成本高的经济部门。最后，我们强调，IMF的中期承诺有助于让投资者对宏观经济稳定放心。

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引用次数: 0

Foreign direct investment, economic growth, governance quality and the informal economy: Empirical insights from an emerging economy 外国直接投资、经济增长、治理质量与非正规经济：来自新兴经济体的实证见解

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100619

Cong Minh Huynh , Nam Hoai Tran

This paper empirically investigates how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows affect the informal economy by using a panel data set of 63 provinces in Vietnam from 2006 to 2021. The results show that: i) FDI inflows reduce the informal economy through the channels of boosting economic growth and improving local governance quality; ii) the formal economy and the informal economy are substitutes; iii) local governance quality reduces informal activities. Additionally, poverty and unemployment emerge as the primary forces driving Vietnam's informal economic activities, while strategic fiscal policy and urbanization can effectively shrink the informal sector.

本文利用2006 - 2021年越南63个省的面板数据，实证研究了外商直接投资（FDI）流入对非正规经济的影响。结果表明：1)FDI流入通过促进经济增长和提高地方治理质量的渠道减少了非正规经济；(2)正规经济与非正规经济互为替代；地方治理质量减少了非正式活动。此外，贫困和失业成为推动越南非正规经济活动的主要力量，而战略性财政政策和城市化可以有效地缩小非正规部门。

引用次数: 0

Impacts of trade diversion from China in the United States market on wages in a third country: Evidence from Thailand 中国在美国市场的贸易转移对第三国工资的影响：来自泰国的证据

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100603

Kazunobu Hayakawa , Sasatra Sudsawasd

Since the latter half of the 2010s, China's exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China's exports, i.e., trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China's exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers' characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skill occupations decreased, while the gap between middle- and high-skill occupations increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused “wage polarization” in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.

自2010年代后半期以来，受中美贸易战和中国防控新冠肺炎等因素影响，中国对美国出口逐渐减少。这种减少导致包括泰国在内的第三国通过替代中国的出口而增加对美国市场的出口，即贸易转移。在此背景下，本研究实证考察了中国对美出口变化所导致的对美出口变化对泰国工资的影响。特别地，我们根据工人的特点检验了异质性效应。为此，我们使用2017年第一季度至2023年第二季度的个人层面季度数据进行回归分析。我们的主要发现是，低技能和中等技能职业之间的工资差距缩小了，而中技能和高技能职业之间的工资差距扩大了。也就是说，对美出口的增加造成了泰国的“工资两极分化”。我们还发现，对美出口的增加扩大了年龄上的工资差距，但缩小了性别上的工资差距。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the combined effects of inspections and technical assistance on international trade 评价视察和技术援助对国际贸易的综合影响

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100613

Linda Fernandez , Monica Das

We investigate the effects of import inspections and technical assistance on international trade through a dynamic analysis of the timing and impact of importer and exporter efforts to address information asymmetries and biosecurity risks. We employ the Multiple Indicator Solution with panel data of technical assistance, inspections and exports for 30 countries. Results show that both inspections and technical assistance have a positive and significant impact on trade volume, while minimizing biosecurity risks in trade, thereby aligning with goals of the World Trade Organization. The impact of technical assistance on exports depends on the type of assistance and country characteristics.

我们通过动态分析进口商和出口商努力解决信息不对称和生物安全风险的时机和影响，调查进口检查和技术援助对国际贸易的影响。我们采用多指标解决方案，其中包含30个国家的技术援助、检验和出口的面板数据。结果表明，检查和技术援助都对贸易额产生了积极而显著的影响，同时最大限度地降低了贸易中的生物安全风险，从而符合世界贸易组织的目标。技术援助对出口的影响取决于援助的类型和国家特点。

引用次数: 0

Regional heterogeneity in the impacts of drought in China 中国干旱影响的区域异质性

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100611

Jiana Chen

Droughts pose a critical global challenge, threatening food security, water resources, and economic stability. In large, ecologically diverse countries like China, understanding how droughts disproportionately affect economies at both national and subnational scales is vital, as regional vulnerabilities can exacerbate broader socioeconomic disruptions. However, previous research has rarely analyzed drought impacts comprehensively at both national and regional levels, limiting the ability to capture the full extent of economic heterogeneities and design effective mitigation strategies. This study examines regional heterogeneities in drought impacts across China, aiming to identify how different regions respond to drought-induced shocks and inform targeted policy interventions. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with sign restrictions, the analysis reveals that while droughts modestly reduce national output, regional impacts vary significantly. Areas heavily reliant on agriculture, those with diverse vegetation ecosystems, and regions with underdeveloped infrastructure face the most severe economic consequences. Supply-side sectors, particularly agriculture, suffer significant productivity losses, driving sharp increases in national food prices. Accommodation and transportation costs also show prolonged inflationary trends, indicating persistent secondary economic effects. To enhance resilience, this study advocates for region-specific strategies in resource allocation and policy-making. By aligning policies with each region's unique economic vulnerabilities and ecological traits, governments can more effectively mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced droughts.

干旱是一项重大的全球挑战，威胁着粮食安全、水资源和经济稳定。在像中国这样生态多样的大国，了解干旱如何在国家和地方层面对经济产生不成比例的影响至关重要，因为区域脆弱性会加剧更广泛的社会经济破坏。然而，以往的研究很少在国家和区域两级全面分析干旱的影响，从而限制了充分了解经济异质性和设计有效缓解战略的能力。本研究考察了中国各地干旱影响的区域异质性，旨在确定不同地区如何应对干旱冲击，并为有针对性的政策干预提供信息。利用带有符号限制的结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型分析表明，干旱虽然会适度减少国家产出，但区域影响差异很大。严重依赖农业的地区、植被生态系统多样的地区以及基础设施欠发达的地区面临的经济后果最为严重。供给侧部门，特别是农业，遭受了巨大的生产力损失，推动了国家粮食价格的急剧上涨。住宿和交通费用也显示出长期的通货膨胀趋势，表明持续的次级经济影响。为了增强韧性，本研究提倡在资源分配和政策制定方面采取有区域特色的战略。通过将政策与每个地区独特的经济脆弱性和生态特征相结合，政府可以更有效地减轻气候引起的干旱的不利影响。

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引用次数: 0

Trade in Business Services’ booms: The case of Ghana 商业服务贸易的繁荣：加纳的案例

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100598

Andrea Ariu

This paper analyzes the growth of trade in Business Services with a particular focus on Ghana. This country experienced the fastest and most important increase in Business Services exports recorded in recent years. This spectacular growth has led Ghana to export as much as a developed country and improved its economy. The main factor underneath this growth is the improved capacity to export Business Services, which is likely to be accounted by an impressive inflow of foreign companies attracted by the economic and political conditions, together as the establishment of the secretariat of the African Continental Free Trade Area. These results are not specific to Ghana. In other African and non-African countries supply-side determinants show to be the main propellant of Business Services trade growth.

本文分析了商业服务贸易的增长，特别关注加纳。该国在商业服务出口方面经历了近年来最快和最重要的增长。这种惊人的增长使加纳的出口达到了发达国家的水平，并改善了其经济。这一增长背后的主要因素是商业服务出口能力的提高，其原因可能是由于经济和政治条件以及非洲大陆自由贸易区秘书处的建立吸引了大量外国公司的流入。这些结果并非仅针对加纳。在其他非洲和非非洲国家，供给方面的决定因素显示是商业服务贸易增长的主要推进剂。

引用次数: 0

Does financial inclusion increase participation in global value chains? Evidence from African countries 普惠金融能提高全球价值链参与度吗？来自非洲国家的证据

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100618

Dieudonné Mignamissi , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Xaverie Possi Tebeng , Yolande E. Ngoungou

The present paper assesses how financial inclusion promotes the participation of Africa in global value chains (GVC), contingent on financial development and institutional quality. We consider 32 African countries over the period 2004–2018, and rely on fixed effects regressions and the Lewbel (2012) instrumental variable technique. Our findings show that financial inclusion promotes the participation of countries in GVC. Moreover, financial development and institutional quality are mechanisms by which financial inclusion indirectly promotes the participation of corresponding countries in GVC. It follows that financial inclusion has both direct and indirect positive effects on GVC participation. Our results underscore the need for integrated policy frameworks that strengthen inclusive finance, deepen financial sector development, and improve institutional quality to boost African economies’ participation in international production networks.

本文评估了金融普惠如何促进非洲参与全球价值链（GVC），这取决于金融发展和制度质量。我们考虑了2004-2018年期间的32个非洲国家，并依靠固定效应回归和Lewbel（2012）工具变量技术。研究结果表明，普惠金融促进了各国参与全球价值链。此外，金融发展和制度质量是普惠金融间接促进相应国家参与全球价值链的机制。由此可见，普惠金融对全球价值链参与具有直接和间接的正向影响。我们的研究结果强调，需要建立综合政策框架，加强普惠金融，深化金融部门发展，提高制度质量，以促进非洲经济体参与国际生产网络。

引用次数: 0

Does English proficiency promote international trade? 精通英语能促进国际贸易吗？

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100628

Cristina Strango , Mihai Mutascu , Scott W. Hegerty

This study examines the impact of English proficiency on international trade using panel ARDL models with data from 105 countries spanning the period from 2011 to 2023. The findings reveal that English proficiency facilitates long-term growth in trade volumes by reducing transaction costs and enhancing global market access. However, its effects on trade balances are mixed, with regions such as Europe and Latin America experiencing negative associations, while Asia and the Middle East benefit from export-driven gains. In contrast, minimal long-term impact is observed in Africa due to linguistic diversity and structural challenges. The study highlights regional and contextual differences, emphasizing the importance of tailored policies to maximize trade benefits.

The extended results, which also include native English-speaking countries, reinforce the core findings and provide stronger evidence that English proficiency has a significant and positive effect on trade volume.

本研究使用面板ARDL模型考察了英语水平对国际贸易的影响，数据来自105个国家，时间跨越2011年至2023年。研究结果表明，英语水平通过降低交易成本和提高全球市场准入，促进了贸易额的长期增长。然而，它对贸易平衡的影响是喜忧参半的，欧洲和拉丁美洲等地区经历了负面关联，而亚洲和中东则受益于出口驱动的增长。相比之下，由于语言多样性和结构挑战，在非洲观察到的长期影响很小。该研究强调了地区和背景差异，强调了制定有针对性的政策以实现贸易利益最大化的重要性。扩展结果（也包括以英语为母语的国家）强化了核心发现，并提供了更有力的证据，证明英语水平对贸易额有显著的积极影响。

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