International Economics最新文献

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Economic sustainability and institutional quality in the green energy transition: Evidence from developing economies 绿色能源转型中的经济可持续性和制度质量：来自发展中经济体的证据

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100669

Amar Rao , Mariem Aloulou , Vishal Dagar , Ashutosh Yadav

This study examines whether renewable energy adoption unconditionally contributes to economic outcomes in developing countries, or whether it can, under certain institutional conditions, impede economic progress. Analyzing panel data from 45 developing countries (2000–2020) using Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, we find a statistically significant negative association between an increasing renewable energy share and both GDP growth and GDP per capita. Crucially, institutional quality plays a pivotal moderating role. While stronger institutions, such as control of corruption and rule of law, mitigate negative impacts on per capita income and employment, they paradoxically appear to exacerbate the negative effect on overall GDP growth, suggesting a more transparent internalization of transition costs in better-governed environments. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate significant heterogeneity across income levels: low-income countries experience positive economic effects from renewable energy adoption, whereas lower-middle-income countries face more pronounced negative impacts. These results challenge the uniformly positive narrative of green growth, underscoring that the energy transition involves significant economic trade-offs critically dependent on a nation’s institutional framework and developmental stage. Policymakers must adopt context-specific strategies to navigate these complexities effectively.

本研究考察了可再生能源的无条件采用是否有助于发展中国家的经济成果，或者在某些制度条件下，它是否会阻碍经济进步。使用Driscoll-Kraay标准误差分析了45个发展中国家（2000-2020）的面板数据，我们发现可再生能源份额的增加与GDP增长和人均GDP之间存在统计学上显著的负相关。至关重要的是，制度质量起着关键的调节作用。虽然更强大的制度，如控制腐败和法治，减轻了对人均收入和就业的负面影响，但矛盾的是，它们似乎加剧了对总体GDP增长的负面影响，这表明在治理更好的环境中，转型成本的内部化更加透明。此外，我们的研究结果显示了不同收入水平的显著异质性：低收入国家采用可再生能源对经济产生了积极影响，而中低收入国家则面临更明显的负面影响。这些结果挑战了绿色增长的一贯积极叙述，强调了能源转型涉及重大的经济权衡，这严重依赖于一个国家的制度框架和发展阶段。决策者必须采取针对具体情况的策略，有效应对这些复杂性。

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引用次数: 0

Employment sentiment behavior during European economic crises: Time trends and persistence analysis 欧洲经济危机期间的就业情绪行为：时间趋势与持续性分析

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100670

María Isabel Luna Kanematsu , Manuel Monge , Juan Infante

This study analyzes employment sentiment dynamics in the Euro Area during recessions using long memory models and time–frequency causality tests. Results show strong persistence in expectations and evidence of bidirectional causality with recession indicators. Employment sentiment serves as a short- and medium-term predictor of recessions, while downturns have lasting effects on labor market perceptions. These findings highlight the relevance of sentiment indicators for macroeconomic forecasting and policy design.

本研究利用长记忆模型和时频因果关系检验分析了衰退期间欧元区就业情绪的动态变化。结果显示，预期具有很强的持久性，并有证据表明衰退指标具有双向因果关系。就业情绪是经济衰退的中短期预测指标，而经济低迷对劳动力市场的看法有持久影响。这些发现突出了情绪指标与宏观经济预测和政策设计的相关性。

引用次数: 0

Connectivity and contagion: How industry networks shape the transmission of shocks in global value chains 连通性与传染：产业网络如何塑造全球价值链冲击的传导

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100666

Charlie Joyez

We study how disruptions propagate through global value chains (GVCs) and how network structure conditions their effects. Using Eora country–industry data for 189 countries and 26 industries (1996–2015), shocks are defined by a distribution-based rule; exposure counts disrupted upstream/downstream partners, and redundancy counts non-disrupted pre-existing links. We estimate fixed-effects impact models—where robustness is smaller contemporaneous deterioration conditional on exposure—and a grouped-time complementary log–log hazard—where resilience is faster return to the pre-shock level. Two findings emerge. First, exposure propagates, depressing output, value added, and exports, and slowing recovery. Second, redundancy mitigates these effects, offsetting the impact and raising the recovery hazard. As an illustration, high-technology activities appear less sensitive on impact and recover faster than low-technology ones, an advantage explained by higher redundancy despite deeper connections. These results suggest that strengthening robustness and resilience requires deepening GVC integration through strategic redundant linkages, rather than retreating from openness.

我们研究破坏如何通过全球价值链（GVCs）传播，以及网络结构如何制约其影响。利用Eora对189个国家和26个行业（1996-2015年）的国别行业数据，冲击是由基于分布的规则定义的；暴露计数中断的上游/下游合作伙伴，冗余计数未中断的先前存在的链接。我们估计了固定效应冲击模型，其中稳健性是指暴露条件下较小的同期恶化，以及分组时间互补对数-对数风险，其中弹性是指更快地恢复到冲击前的水平。有两个发现。首先，风险敞口会扩散，抑制产出、增加值和出口，减缓复苏。其次，冗余减轻了这些影响，抵消了影响并提高了恢复风险。举例来说，高技术活动似乎对冲击不那么敏感，而且比低技术活动恢复得更快，这一优势可以用尽管联系更深，但冗余度更高来解释。这些结果表明，增强稳健性和弹性需要通过战略冗余联系深化全球价值链整合，而不是退出开放。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the effect of uncertainty in policy decisions on the sustainability of the Stability and Growth Pact: A functional analysis approach 评估政策决策中的不确定性对《稳定与增长公约》可持续性的影响：功能分析方法

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100668

Bernardo Maggi

We model the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) efficiency criterion for managing tax revenues within a stochastic optimal control problem and analyze the role of uncertainty stemming from unexpected public expenditure. We employ a functional analysis approach based on the Riccati equation, specifically tailored for this stochastic setting, and assess the stability properties of the model. We have the following results: (i) the optimal tax revenue is a nonstationary process in a long-run cointegration equilibrium with long-term public debt, which is a nonstationary process, too; (ii) the long-run equilibrium is not viable during a prolonged downturn of the economic cycle; (iii) a monetary policy responding to fiscal shocks may postpone the noncompliance with the SGP; (iv) the probability of noncompliance with the SGP based on a logistic regression model is increasing with the extent of political uncertainty, and declines as the upper limit for the socially sustainable average tax rate rises. Our analysis shows that structural reforms should be directed to mitigate the cost of uncertainty in public expenditure and improve the quality of public services.

我们在随机最优控制问题中建立了《稳定与增长公约》（SGP）税收管理效率标准模型，并分析了意外公共支出带来的不确定性的作用。我们采用基于Riccati方程的泛函分析方法，专门针对这种随机设置，并评估模型的稳定性。结果表明：(1)最优税收是与长期公共债务长期协整均衡的非平稳过程，而长期公共债务也是一个非平稳过程；（ii）长期均衡在经济周期的长期低迷中是不可行的；（iii）应对财政冲击的货币政策可能会推迟不遵守SGP；(4)基于logistic回归模型的不遵守SGP的概率随着政治不确定性程度的增加而增加，随着社会可持续平均税率上限的提高而下降。我们的分析表明，结构性改革应着眼于降低公共支出不确定性的成本，提高公共服务质量。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring financial integration in GCC stock markets: Dynamics, risk premia, and the path to enhanced cooperation 衡量海湾合作委员会股票市场的金融一体化：动态、风险溢价和加强合作的途径

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100667

Salem Boubakri , Cyriac Guillaumin

The goal of this study is to examine the extent and dynamics of regional financial integration among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by analysing local stock market returns through various risk premia related to both regional stock and exchange markets. Our approach employs the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), which incorporates the degree of financial integration when pricing market risk premia. Additionally, we introduce a regional currency basket, the Khaleeji, to establish a reference currency for the region and to prospect the twin objective: reducing the peg to the US dollar and fostering regional monetary cooperation. Our key findings reveal that GCC stock markets are influenced by both regional and local financial shocks and crises. Long-term analysis demonstrates that the regional risk premium is significant for GCC countries, with stronger cooperation potentially improving regional risk-sharing. The results further suggest that the level of regional financial integration varies across countries, reflecting a partial integration among GCC countries. The growing importance of regional risk premia and financial integration may stimulate increased financial cooperation within the GCC, ultimately leading to enhanced economic integration.

本研究的目的是通过分析与区域股票和交易所市场相关的各种风险溢价的当地股票市场回报，来检验海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家之间区域金融一体化的程度和动态。我们的方法采用国际资本资产定价模型（ICAPM），该模型在定价市场风险溢价时纳入了金融整合程度。此外，我们还引入了一篮子区域货币，即Khaleeji，以建立该地区的参考货币，并展望双重目标：减少与美元的挂钩，促进区域货币合作。我们的主要发现表明，海湾合作委员会股票市场受到区域和地方金融冲击和危机的影响。长期分析表明，海湾合作委员会国家的区域风险溢价显著，加强合作可能会改善区域风险分担。结果进一步表明，区域金融一体化水平因国家而异，反映了海湾合作委员会国家之间的部分一体化。区域风险溢价和金融一体化的重要性日益增加，可能会刺激海湾合作委员会内部金融合作的增加，最终导致经济一体化的加强。

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引用次数: 0

Multilateral trade liberalization and preference erosion: the case of the United Kingdom Global Tariff 多边贸易自由化与优惠侵蚀：以英国全球关税为例

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100665

Maria Cipollina , Luca Salvatici

We assess the impact of the UK Global Tariff (UKGT) using detailed data on tariffs and imports from 2012 to 2021 to estimate sectoral elasticities of substitution and compute theoretically consistent tariff margins, which incorporate information on multilateral trade resistance. We quantify the impact of the new UK multilateral trade policy by comparing the 2021 trade data with a counterfactual scenario, assuming that tariffs remained unchanged. Our approach exploits cross-product and cross-country variation in treatment over time to identify which countries/sectors are likely to be negatively/positively affected by the UKGT. Distinguishing between final and intermediate imports also allows us to shed light on the UK's role in global value chains. Our results highlight that trade shocks affect all partners, not just targeted exporters, and that changes in trade costs for some influence the competitiveness and trade flows of others.

我们使用2012年至2021年关税和进口的详细数据来评估英国全球关税（UKGT）的影响，以估计部门替代弹性，并计算理论上一致的关税边际，其中包括多边贸易阻力的信息。我们通过将2021年的贸易数据与假设关税保持不变的反事实情景进行比较，量化了英国新多边贸易政策的影响。我们的方法利用跨产品和跨国家的待遇差异，以确定哪些国家/部门可能受到UKGT的负面/积极影响。区分最终进口和中间进口还可以让我们了解英国在全球价值链中的作用。我们的研究结果强调，贸易冲击影响所有合作伙伴，而不仅仅是目标出口国，而且一些国家的贸易成本变化会影响其他国家的竞争力和贸易流量。

引用次数: 0

Do political parties shape global risk? Evidence from United States presidential leadership and geopolitical volatility 政党会影响全球风险吗？证据来自美国总统的领导力和地缘政治的动荡

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100658

Nasr G. Elbahnasawy , Osama D. Sweidan

This study investigates whether the political party controlling the U.S. presidency systematically influences the country's geopolitical risk profile. Using monthly data from 1946 to 2025, we employ a vector autoregressive framework to analyze the dynamic, contemporaneous, and conditional effects of presidential party affiliation on U.S. geopolitical risk. Our results reveal no significant direct effect of presidential party identity on geopolitical risk, suggesting broad institutional continuity in U.S. foreign policy. However, we uncover a statistically significant interaction effect: geopolitical risk rises during recessionary periods under Republican administrations, but remains stable under Democratic ones. This asymmetry supports theoretical arguments from the public choice and diversionary conflict literatures, indicating that foreign policy assertiveness may intensify when political ideology intersects with economic stress. In addition, we find that U.S. geopolitical risk is significantly influenced by international spillovers from the geopolitical risks of key allies and rivals. Our findings contribute to the literature on the political economy of foreign policy and provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and international observers seeking to understand how domestic politics, economic cycles, and external shocks interact to shape global risk dynamics.

这项研究调查了控制美国总统职位的政党是否系统性地影响了该国的地缘政治风险状况。使用1946年至2025年的月度数据，我们采用向量自回归框架来分析总统政党归属对美国地缘政治风险的动态、同期和条件影响。我们的研究结果显示，总统政党身份对地缘政治风险没有显著的直接影响，这表明美国外交政策具有广泛的制度连续性。然而，我们发现了统计上显著的相互作用效应：在共和党执政的经济衰退时期，地缘政治风险上升，但在民主党执政期间保持稳定。这种不对称支持了公共选择和转移性冲突文献中的理论论点，表明当政治意识形态与经济压力相交时，外交政策的自信可能会加剧。此外，我们发现美国地缘政治风险受到主要盟友和竞争对手地缘政治风险国际溢出效应的显著影响。我们的研究结果为外交政策的政治经济学文献做出了贡献，并为政策制定者、投资者和国际观察家提供了宝贵的见解，帮助他们了解国内政治、经济周期和外部冲击如何相互作用，形成全球风险动态。

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引用次数: 0

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited: Capital mobility stuck in traffic? 费尔德斯坦-堀冈之谜重现：资本流动受困于交通堵塞？

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100657

Wenjie Zheng

This paper reexamines the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle using data from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 196 economies during the 1980–2024 period. Our analysis contributes to the literature through three key insights into capital dynamics. First, in contrast to previous studies, we find relatively low savings-retention coefficients among OECD countries, statistically significant at the 1% level. Second, cross-country comparison reveals pronounced U-shaped patterns in savings-retention coefficients, indicating substantial heterogeneity in capital flows between emerging and developing economies and advanced economies. Third, within-country estimates show that higher GDP per capita is linked to lower savings, implying that wealthier economies retain less. Between-country results indicate that advanced economies exhibit savings-retention coefficients than emerging and developing ones. Finally, we show that a low savings-retention coefficient is a sufficient but not necessary condition for high international capital mobility. As a result, tests of perfect capital mobility should be interpreted as relative rather than absolute measures. Overall, the results suggest that the puzzle persists mainly in emerging Asia economies, but its strength has been decreasing over time.

本文利用国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》（WEO） 1980-2024年期间196个经济体的数据，重新审视了费尔德斯坦-堀冈之谜。我们的分析通过对资本动态的三个关键见解为文献做出了贡献。首先，与之前的研究相比，我们发现经合组织国家的储蓄-保留系数相对较低，在1%的水平上具有统计学意义。其次，跨国比较显示，储蓄保持系数呈明显的u型，表明新兴经济体和发展中经济体与发达经济体之间的资本流动存在巨大异质性。第三，国内估计表明，较高的人均GDP与较低的储蓄有关，这意味着较富裕的经济体保留的储蓄较少。国与国之间的结果表明，发达经济体的储蓄-保留系数高于新兴经济体和发展中经济体。最后，我们证明低储蓄保留系数是高国际资本流动性的充分条件，但不是必要条件。因此，对完全资本流动性的测试应被解读为相对而非绝对的衡量标准。总体而言，研究结果表明，这一难题主要存在于亚洲新兴经济体，但其强度已随着时间的推移而减弱。

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引用次数: 0

Overseas patenting and exports: Does patenting in China work? 海外专利与出口：在中国申请专利有效吗？

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100656

Chih-Hai Yang

Overseas patenting is a trade-related strategy aiming at protecting innovations in foreign markets. This study examines the export effect of patenting in China, which is the largest trade country with a weak intellectual property rights (IPRs) regime. Using a country-level panel dataset on exports to and patenting in China, the empirical results show that, overall, there is no export-enhancing effect of patenting in China on exporting to China. When separating exports into different categories based on the Harmonized System and matching them with their corresponding International Patent Classification codes, we find that the export effects are heterogeneous: patents have an export-enhancing effect for complex products, particularly electronics goods, but not for non-complex goods. From a dynamic perspective, this export-enhancing effect diminishes as China's technological capabilities advance, combined with weak IPR protection. Consequently, this positive effect disappeared in the 2010s.

海外专利是一种与贸易有关的战略，旨在保护国外市场的创新。本研究考察了中国专利的出口效应，中国是世界上最大的贸易国，但知识产权制度薄弱。利用国家层面的对华出口和中国专利行为面板数据，实证结果表明，总体而言，中国专利行为对对华出口不存在出口促进效应。在将出口按协调制度划分为不同的类别并与相应的国际专利分类代码进行匹配时，我们发现出口效应是异质的：专利对复杂产品（特别是电子产品）具有出口促进作用，但对非复杂产品没有出口促进作用。从动态的角度来看，随着中国技术能力的提高，加上知识产权保护不力，这种出口促进效应会减弱。因此，这种积极影响在2010年代消失了。

引用次数: 0

Stay firm: Importer-exporter relations, Incoterms and the use of trade preferences 坚定立场：进出口关系，国际贸易术语解释通则和贸易优惠的使用

International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100655

Lars Nilsson , Wouter Decoster

The literature on the use of trade preferences has grown richer over the past decade thanks to improved data availability and a greater interest in the topic. Some recent studies suggest that firm level data are needed to better understand why only some transactions make use of preferences.

The few papers that rely on firm level data to assess the use of trade preferences tend to focus on whether large firms use preferences more extensively than small firms do. However, the literature does not examine whether an importing firm consistently uses preferences when importing from a specific exporter or from multiple exporters (and vice-versa for exporting firms). Similarly, the use of Incoterms in this context is rarely analysed.

This paper uses transaction level data of Belgian firms’ imports from exporting firms in eight countries. It provides an overview of preference-eligible imports, potential duty savings, and use of trade preferences by origin, Incoterms, firm-pair, and firm-pair-product categories. The empirical analysis then assesses the impact of these dimensions on the use of trade preferences, including the effects of the importer being an intermediary/logistics services provider, and of goods being placed in a customs warehouse before being declared.

由于数据可用性的提高和对这一主题的更大兴趣，关于贸易优惠使用的文献在过去十年中变得更加丰富。最近的一些研究表明，需要公司层面的数据来更好地理解为什么只有一些交易利用了偏好。少数依靠企业层面数据来评估贸易优惠使用的论文倾向于关注大公司是否比小公司更广泛地使用优惠。然而，文献并没有检验进口企业在从一个特定的出口商或从多个出口商进口时是否始终使用优惠（反之亦然）。同样，在这种情况下，对国际贸易术语解释通则的使用也很少进行分析。本文使用比利时公司从八个国家的出口公司进口的交易水平数据。它概述了符合优惠条件的进口，潜在的关税节省，以及按原产地，国际贸易术语解释通则，公司对和公司对产品类别使用贸易优惠。然后，实证分析评估了这些维度对贸易优惠使用的影响，包括进口商作为中介/物流服务提供商的影响，以及货物在申报前被放置在海关仓库的影响。

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