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Does immigration increase crime? The advantage of dynamic threshold models with finer geographic units 移民会增加犯罪吗?具有更精细地理单元的动态阈值模型的优势
Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100534
Akinori Tomohara

This study investigates whether immigration and crime rates are positively related, by applying dynamic panel threshold models to fine geographic units. This is distinct from previous studies, in which static and continuous models are applied to coarse geographic units. This analysis reveals that the immigration-crime relationship has structural breaks (or discontinuities). The favorable ethnic network externalities on crime emerge after the immigrant share reaches a certain level in the community. This analysis also shows that the immigration-crime relationship observed in fine geographic units disappears when coarsely classified units are used. If geographic aggregation obscures heterogeneity among cities, the immigration-crime relationship is underestimated. These results suggest the advantage of dynamic threshold models with fine geographic units compared to traditional static and continuous models with coarse geographic units when discussing the immigration-crime relationship.

本研究通过对精细地理单元应用动态面板阈值模型,调查移民与犯罪率是否正相关。这与以往的研究不同,以往的研究将静态和连续模型应用于粗略的地理单元。该分析表明,移民与犯罪的关系存在结构性断裂(或不连续性)。当移民在社区中的比例达到一定水平后,对犯罪有利的种族网络外部性就会出现。这项分析还表明,在使用粗略分类的单位时,在精细地理单元中观察到的移民与犯罪的关系就会消失。如果地理聚合掩盖了城市间的异质性,那么移民与犯罪的关系就会被低估。这些结果表明,在讨论移民与犯罪的关系时,采用精细地理单元的动态阈值模型比采用粗略地理单元的传统静态连续模型更有优势。
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引用次数: 0
Financial fragility, regime change, and monetary policy in an open economy – A model and empirical application to emerging market countries 开放经济中的金融脆弱性、政权更迭和货币政策--新兴市场国家的模型和经验应用
Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100532
Willi Semmler , Marieme Toure

July 20, 2023 (Revised April 15, 2024) The experiences of the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis encouraged economists to develop new open-economy dynamic finance-macro models. Such models allow for nonlinearities -- to study the effects of contractionary currency devaluation -- in contrast to models of expansionary currency devaluation. The generic dynamic model of the finance-macro link in this paper includes the dynamics of the inflation rates, output gap, and financial variables (credit flows, risk premia, and exchange rates). The theoretical model with nonlinearities shows that there can be resilient or non-resilient outcomes of the dynamics. The level of resilience is however dependent on some empirical vulnerabilities. Relevant empirics show the risk premium is related not only to domestic real macro and financial variables, but also to the exchange rate and the foreign currency reserves. Econometrically, this paper explores the regime-dependent interaction of the output gap and financial variables in a two-regime non-linear Logistic Vector Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive (LVSTAR) model with a logistic-type transition function. This empirical study reveals that the financial variables of emerging economies show regime-dependent responses to external shocks. Therefore, a positive shock to the risk premia in a negative output gap regime entails an exchange rate depreciation, and accelerating contractions. Overall, however, a diversity of EM economies are examined in terms of their response to external shocks and their resilience levels. This research also has implications for international portfolio holdings.

2023 年 7 月 20 日(2024 年 4 月 15 日修订) 1997-98 年亚洲金融危机和 2008-09 年全球金融危机的经历鼓励经济学家开发新的开放经济动态金融宏观模型。与扩张性货币贬值模型相比,此类模型允许非线性因素--以研究收缩性货币贬值的影响。本文中金融与宏观联系的通用动态模型包括通货膨胀率、产出缺口和金融变量(信贷流、风险溢价和汇率)的动态变化。非线性理论模型表明,动态结果可能有弹性,也可能无弹性。然而,弹性的程度取决于一些经验上的脆弱性。相关经验表明,风险溢价不仅与国内实际宏观和金融变量有关,还与汇率和外汇储备有关。从经济学角度看,本文在一个具有逻辑型转换函数的双制度非线性逻辑矢量平滑转换自回归(LVSTAR)模型中,探讨了产出缺口与金融变量的制度依赖性互动关系。这项实证研究表明,新兴经济体的金融变量对外部冲击的反应与制度有关。因此,在负产出缺口体制下,风险溢价的正向冲击会导致汇率贬值和加速收缩。不过,总体而言,研究考察了新兴市场经济体对外部冲击的反应及其复原力水平。这项研究对国际投资组合也有影响。
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引用次数: 0
What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts 有什么好处?军事冲突对通货膨胀的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100535
Ulrich Eydam, Florian Leupold

Military conflicts and wars affect the development of a country in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 151 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance-based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries. These findings are robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict-induced inflation is not driven solely by the increase in the money supply.

军事冲突和战争会从不同方面影响一个国家的发展。通货膨胀率上升是与冲突相关的潜在重要经济影响。高通胀率会破坏投资,拖累私人消费,威胁宏观经济稳定。此外,这些影响不一定局限于冲突发生地,也可能波及其他国家。因此,要了解冲突如何影响经济,并对武装冲突的代价进行更全面的评估,就必须考虑到通货膨胀的影响。为了厘清冲突与通货膨胀之间的关系并量化这种关系,我们对 1950-2019 年期间的 151 个国家进行了面板分析。为捕捉间接通胀效应,我们构建了基于距离的溢出指数。总体而言,我们的分析结果证实了冲突与通胀率之间在统计上具有显著的正向直接联系。此外,我们还记录了冲突与未卷入国家的通货膨胀率之间具有统计意义的正向间接关联。这些结果在不同的模型规格下都是稳健的。此外,我们的结果表明,冲突引发的通货膨胀并不仅仅是由货币供应量的增加所驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Intra-African migration and the real exchange rate 非洲内部移民和实际汇率
Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100526
Morel Tien

Africa’s openness to migration is strongly continental (about 80% of African migrants are settled in Africa). This paper explores how intra-continental migration impacts the real exchange rates of African economies. International migration may impact the real exchange rate through many pathways (demand-side and supply-side effects on prices, indirect effects through demography structure and remittances), thus leading to contradictory effects. Using a sample of 51 African countries over the period 1990–2019, econometric estimations show evidence that an increase in net intra-African migration exerts an appreciating effect on the real exchange rate of host countries. This finding holds when controlling for potential endogeneity using gravity-based instruments for migration.

非洲对移民的开放具有强烈的大陆性(约 80% 的非洲移民在非洲定居)。本文探讨了非洲大陆内部移民如何影响非洲经济体的实际汇率。国际移民可能通过多种途径(需求方和供应方对价格的影响、通过人口结构和汇款产生的间接影响)对实际汇率产生影响,从而导致相互矛盾的效应。利用 1990-2019 年期间 51 个非洲国家的样本,计量经济学估计显示,非洲内部净移民的增加对东道国的实际汇率产生了升值效应。在使用基于引力的移民工具控制潜在的内生性时,这一结论成立。
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引用次数: 0
Population aging, pensions, informality and labor market frictions in Lebanon. Reforms and policy choices 黎巴嫩的人口老龄化、养老金、非正规性和劳动力市场摩擦。改革与政策选择
Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100531
Marie-Claude Kamar , Riccardo Magnani

We evaluate the effects of population aging on the macroeconomic evolution of the Lebanese economy and the financial sustainability of its major pension schemes. We use an OLG model with labor market frictions as in de la Croix et al. (2013). Individuals are differentiated by their origin, age, gender, and education and choose the sector of activity, which implies that the size of the informal sector is endogenous. We assess the long-run implications of population aging and show that the public sector pension scheme is unsustainable. In contrast, the private sector scheme is insufficient to ensure decent living standards for the elderly. Finally, we evaluate the effects of two pension reforms. We first propose a mix of measures that guarantee the sustainability of the public sector scheme. Then, we evaluate the impact of the pension reform introduced in December 2023 and of an alternative reform aiming at increasing the size of the private sector scheme to improve the living standards for the elderly.

我们评估了人口老龄化对黎巴嫩经济的宏观经济演变及其主要养老金计划的财务可持续性的影响。我们使用的是一个具有劳动力市场摩擦的 OLG 模型,与 de la Croix 等人(2013 年)的模型相同。个人按出身、年龄、性别和教育程度进行区分,并选择活动部门,这意味着非正规部门的规模是内生的。我们对人口老龄化的长期影响进行了评估,结果表明公共部门养老金计划是不可持续的。相比之下,私营部门的计划不足以确保老年人体面的生活水平。最后,我们对两项养老金改革的效果进行了评估。首先,我们提出了保证公共部门计划可持续性的一系列措施。然后,我们评估了 2023 年 12 月推出的养老金改革以及旨在扩大私营部门计划规模以提高老年人生活水平的替代改革的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Australian stock market: Evidence from multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL (MTNARDL) approach COVID-19 大流行对澳大利亚股市的非对称冲击:多阈值非线性 ARDL (MTNARDL) 方法的证据
Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100533
Partha Gangopadhyay , Rudra P. Pradhan , Narasingha Das

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Australian stock market using a novel methodology (multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL). We find that, in the short-term, the pandemic's impact is statistically insignificant for moderate levels of pandemic intensity (30–70% range). However, for both more severe outbreaks (above 70%) and less intense initial stages (below 30%), the pandemic shows short-term negative effects. Interestingly, these adverse effects become consistent across all intensity levels in the long-term. Additionally, our analysis reveals counterintuitive relationships between daily economic activity and stock market performance at different pandemic intensity thresholds.

本研究采用新颖的方法(多阈值非线性 ARDL)研究了 COVID-19 大流行病对澳大利亚股市的非对称影响。我们发现,在短期内,大流行病的影响对于中等程度的大流行病强度(30%-70% 范围)在统计上并不显著。然而,对于更严重的爆发(高于 70%)和强度较低的初始阶段(低于 30%),大流行都会产生短期负面影响。有趣的是,从长期来看,这些负面影响在所有强度水平上都是一致的。此外,我们的分析还揭示了在不同的大流行强度阈值下,日常经济活动与股市表现之间的反直觉关系。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Economic Policy Uncertainty spillovers: A cross-border analysis of global and BRIC economies 经济政策不确定性溢出效应评估:对全球和 "金砖四国 "经济体的跨境分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100530
Umar Kayani , M. Kabir Hassan , Austin Dejan , Maaz Khan , Farrukh Nawaz

This study empirically assesses the dynamics of variation in economic policy uncertainty over the financial markets of BRIC countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Using monthly frequency data from January 2003 to June 2023 and employing Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover estimation framework, we find a significant influence of global economic policy uncertainty on the BRIC economies that varies with the time horizons. The findings show a total spillover of 35.65% in the global and BRIC economic policy uncertainty. The highest gross directional spillover is reported globally and in China, while Brazil shows the lowest directional gross economic policy uncertainty spillover. However, the global economic policy uncertainty transmits the highest net directional spillover. The study provides practical policy implications in adopting a comprehensive, globally informed approach to economic policy decisions and risk mitigation strategies to navigate the evolving landscape of economic policy uncertainties effectively.

本研究通过实证评估了经济政策不确定性对金砖四国(包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)金融市场的动态变化。利用 2003 年 1 月至 2023 年 6 月的月度频率数据,并采用 Diebold 和 Yilmaz(2012 年)的溢出效应估计框架,我们发现全球经济政策不确定性对金砖四国经济的显著影响随时间跨度而变化。研究结果显示,全球和金砖四国经济政策不确定性的总溢出率为 35.65%。全球和中国的总定向溢出率最高,而巴西的总经济政策不确定性定向溢出率最低。然而,全球经济政策不确定性传递的净定向溢出效应最高。这项研究提供了切实可行的政策含义,即在经济政策决策和风险缓解战略中采用全面、全球知情的方法,以有效驾驭不断变化的经济政策不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Trade openness, governance quality, and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的贸易开放度、治理质量和经济增长
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100527
Olugbenga A. Onafowora , Oluwole Owoye

The existing literature on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth is extensive, but there is a dearth of research that examines whether this relationship is contingent on the quality of governance institutions in a country. In this study, we address this gap by investigating the moderating effects of governance quality on the trade openness-economic growth nexus in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the 2000–2021 period. We utilize six indicators of governance quality from the World Bank's world governance indicators and employ correlation and the dynamic panel System Generalized Method of Moments technique for robust and efficient analysis, which yields more accurate results when the number of cross-sections exceeds the time dimension of the dataset. Our findings indicate that governance effectiveness, rule of law, control of corruption, and regulatory quality have a significantly positive impact on the positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth. In contrast, the moderating effects of voice and accountability and political stability on the trade openness-economic growth relationship are negative and statistically significant. Based on these results, we conclude that each governance dimension has distinct effects on the trade openness-economic growth nexus. In term of policy recommendation, policymakers need to harness the benefits of international trade for promoting economic growth; therefore, LAC countries should focus on investing in institutional quality and designing policies that would enhance the overall quality and effectiveness of governance.

关于贸易开放与经济增长之间关系的现有文献很多,但很少有研究探讨这种关系是否取决于一国治理机构的质量。在本研究中,我们通过研究 2000-2021 年间治理质量对拉丁美洲和加勒比地区(LAC)贸易开放与经济增长关系的调节作用,弥补了这一空白。我们利用世界银行世界治理指标中的六个治理质量指标,并采用相关性和动态面板系统广义矩法技术进行稳健、高效的分析,当截面数量超过数据集的时间维度时,该技术会产生更准确的结果。我们的研究结果表明,治理有效性、法治、腐败控制和监管质量对贸易开放度与经济增长之间的正相关关系有显著的积极影响。相比之下,发言权和问责制以及政治稳定性对贸易开放度与经济增长关系的调节作用为负,且在统计上显著。基于这些结果,我们得出结论,各个治理维度对贸易开放与经济增长之间的关系具有不同的影响。在政策建议方面,决策者需要利用国际贸易的好处来促进经济增长;因此,拉丁美洲和加勒比国家应重点投资于机构质量,并制定政策来提高治理的整体质量和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Unravelling the impact of political risk on industrialization: Evidence from Africa 解读政治风险对工业化的影响:非洲的证据
Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100528
Hervé Kaffo Fotio , Abdoul Karim

Despite the growing concern about the economic costs of political risk, relatively little is known about its effect on industrialization. This paper fills the knowledge gap by investigating the impact of political risk on industrialization and relative transmission mechanisms using data from 34 African countries over the 2000–2019 period. Findings from Driscoll and Kraay (1998), system GMM, and quantile regressions show that political risk has a direct negative impact on industrialization. When considering the sub-dimensions of political risk, results show that the increase in government risk, internal and external conflict risk, military politics risk, ethnic tensions risk, investment profile risk, corruption risk, bureaucratic quality risk, and socioeconomic risk adversely affect industrialization. Further, the mediation analysis reveals that political risk does not only have a direct effect on industrialization but also an indirect impact through its adverse effects on financial integration, financial development, and internet penetration. Finally, the net impact is negative and suggests that political risk hinders Africa's industrialization.

尽管人们越来越关注政治风险的经济成本,但对其对工业化的影响却知之甚少。本文利用 2000-2019 年间 34 个非洲国家的数据,研究了政治风险对工业化的影响及其相对传导机制,从而填补了这一知识空白。Driscoll 和 Kraay(1998 年)、系统 GMM 和量子回归的研究结果表明,政治风险对工业化有直接的负面影响。在考虑政治风险的子维度时,结果显示政府风险、内部和外部冲突风险、军事政治风险、种族紧张局势风险、投资状况风险、腐败风险、官僚素质风险和社会经济风险的增加会对工业化产生不利影响。此外,中介分析表明,政治风险不仅直接影响工业化,还通过对金融一体化、金融发展和互联网渗透率的不利影响产生间接影响。最后,净影响是负面的,表明政治风险阻碍了非洲的工业化。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum to “Remittances, financial development, and income inequality: A panel quantile regression approach” [Int. Econ. 175 (2023) 171-186] 对 "汇款、金融发展和收入不平等:面板量化回归方法" [Int. Econ. 175 (2023) 171-186] 更正
Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100529
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引用次数: 0
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International Economics
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