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Investment Timing and Capacity Decisions with Time-to-Build in a Duopoly Market 双寡头市场中投资时机和产能决策与建设时间
Pub Date : 2019-02-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3331490
Haejun Jeon
Abstract In this study, we investigate optimal investment timing and capacity decisions in the presence of time-to-build and competition. Due to uncertain time-to-build, a leader, who invests first, may have its product enter the market after a follower’s. We show that a dominated firm with the longer time-to-build can become a leader by making the investment earlier than a dominant firm with shorter investment lags. The leader’s capacity choice increases with the dominated firm’s time-to-build, even if the dominated entity is the leader. This finding is consistent with the observation in the electric vehicles market in which a relatively new firm with little experience of mass production makes aggressive investment early on, while the biggest carmakers capable of mass production are timing their investment. With a welfare-maximizing policy, however, the dominant firm with the shorter time-to-build always becomes the leader. There is a significant loss of social welfare with the dominated firm being the leader, and the loss increases with the asymmetry of time-to-build.
摘要本文研究了在建设时间和竞争条件下的最优投资时机和产能决策。由于构建时间的不确定性,先投资的领先者,其产品可能会在后来者之后进入市场。研究表明,相对于投资滞后时间较短的主导企业,建设时间较长的主导企业可以通过更早的投资成为领导者。即使被主导企业是领导者,领导者的能力选择也会随着被主导企业建设时间的增加而增加。这一发现与电动汽车市场的观察结果一致,在电动汽车市场上,一家相对较新、没有大规模生产经验的公司会在早期大举投资,而有能力大规模生产的最大汽车制造商则会选择投资时机。然而,在福利最大化政策下,建设时间较短的占主导地位的企业总是成为领导者。当被支配的企业成为领导者时,社会福利的损失是显著的,并且这种损失随着建造时间的不对称而增加。
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引用次数: 12
Measuring the Welfare of Intermediaries 衡量中介机构的福利
Pub Date : 2018-12-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3285205
J. Donna, Pedro Pereira, Tiago Pires, A. Trindade
We investigate the welfare of intermediaries in oligopolistic markets where intermediaries offer additional services. We exploit the unique circumstance that in the empirical setting studied, outdoor advertising, consumers can purchase from manufacturers or intermediaries. Intermediaries provide additional services to the consumers and charge a margin for them. Intermediaries provide the following additional services: search services (information about products), purchase-aggregation services (access to quantity discounts), and consulting services. We specify an equilibrium model and structurally estimate it using market-level data. The demand includes consumers with costly search and channel-specific preferences. The supply includes two distribution channels. One features bargaining about wholesale prices between manufacturers and intermediaries and downstream price competition. The other is vertically integrated. We show how Google search data can be used to identify the search-cost parameters. We use the estimated model to simulate counterfactual scenarios where intermediaries do not offer additional services. We find that the three services considered provide value to consumers, with search playing a prominent role. Our analysis helps explain why intermediaries are ubiquitous in modern economies despite the double marginalization. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.
我们研究了在寡头垄断市场中,中介机构提供额外服务的中介机构的福利。我们利用独特的情况,即在实证研究的背景下,户外广告,消费者可以从制造商或中介购买。中间商为消费者提供额外的服务,并收取一定的利润。中间体提供以下附加服务:搜索服务(关于产品的信息)、购买聚合服务(获得数量折扣)和咨询服务。我们指定了一个均衡模型,并使用市场水平的数据对其进行结构性估计。这些需求包括有昂贵搜索费用和特定渠道偏好的消费者。供应包括两个分销渠道。一个特点是制造商和中间商之间的批发价格议价和下游价格竞争。另一个是垂直整合。我们将展示如何使用Google搜索数据来确定搜索成本参数。我们使用估计模型来模拟中介不提供额外服务的反事实情景。我们发现,这三种服务为消费者提供了价值,其中搜索发挥了突出的作用。我们的分析有助于解释,尽管存在双重边缘化,中介机构为何在现代经济中无处不在。这篇论文被市场营销学的Matthew Shum接受。
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引用次数: 2
The Importance of Data Access Regimes for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning 数据访问机制对人工智能和机器学习的重要性
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3357652
B. Martens
Digitization triggered a steep drop in the cost of information. The resulting data glut created a bottleneck because human cognitive capacity is unable to cope with large amounts of information. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) triggered a similar drop in the cost of machine-based decision-making and helps in overcoming this bottleneck. Substantial change in the relative price of resources puts pressure on ownership and access rights to these resources. This explains pressure on access rights to data. ML thrives on access to big and varied datasets. We discuss the implications of access regimes for the development of AI in its current form of ML. The economic characteristics of data (non-rivalry, economies of scale and scope) favour data aggregation in big datasets. Non-rivalry implies the need for exclusive rights in order to incentivise data production when it is costly. The balance between access and exclusion is at the centre of the debate on data regimes. We explore the economic implications of several modalities for access to data, ranging from exclusive monopolistic control to monopolistic competition and free access. Regulatory intervention may push the market beyond voluntary exchanges, either towards more openness or reduced access. This may generate private costs for firms and individuals. Society can choose to do so if the social benefits of this intervention outweigh the private costs. We briefly discuss the main EU legal instruments that are relevant for data access and ownership, including the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) that defines the rights of data subjects with respect to their personal data and the Database Directive (DBD) that grants ownership rights to database producers. These two instruments leave a wide legal no-man's land where data access is ruled by bilateral contracts and Technical Protection Measures that give exclusive control to de facto data holders, and by market forces that drive access, trade and pricing of data. The absence of exclusive rights might facilitate data sharing and access or it may result in a segmented data landscape where data aggregation for ML purposes is hard to achieve. It is unclear if incompletely specified ownership and access rights maximize the welfare of society and facilitate the development of AI/ML.
数字化引发了信息成本的急剧下降。由此产生的数据过剩造成了一个瓶颈,因为人类的认知能力无法处理大量的信息。人工智能和机器学习(AI/ML)引发了基于机器的决策成本的类似下降,并有助于克服这一瓶颈。资源相对价格的巨大变化给这些资源的所有权和使用权带来了压力。这解释了对数据访问权的压力。ML在访问大而多样的数据集上蓬勃发展。我们讨论了以当前形式的ML开发人工智能的访问制度的影响。数据的经济特征(非竞争、规模经济和范围经济)有利于大数据集中的数据聚合。非竞争意味着需要专有权,以便在数据生产成本高昂时激励数据生产。获取与排除之间的平衡是有关数据制度的辩论的核心。我们探讨了获取数据的几种模式的经济含义,从排他性垄断控制到垄断竞争和自由获取。监管干预可能会推动市场超越自愿交换,要么走向更开放,要么减少准入。这可能会给企业和个人带来私人成本。如果这种干预的社会效益超过私人成本,社会可以选择这样做。我们将简要讨论与数据访问和所有权相关的主要欧盟法律文书,包括定义数据主体对其个人数据的权利的《通用数据保护条例》(GDPR)和授予数据库生产者所有权的《数据库指令》(DBD)。这两项文书留下了一个广阔的法律无人区,数据获取由双边合同和技术保护措施来决定,这些合同和技术保护措施将独家控制权交给事实上的数据持有者,并由推动数据获取、交易和定价的市场力量来决定。缺乏专有权可能会促进数据共享和访问,或者可能导致数据分割,难以实现ML目的的数据聚合。目前尚不清楚,不完全指定的所有权和访问权是否能最大限度地提高社会福利,并促进人工智能/机器学习的发展。
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引用次数: 8
Technology Transfer: Barriers and Opportunities 技术转让:障碍与机会
Pub Date : 2018-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3269202
Luis C. Corchón, C. Garcia
In this paper we study technology transfer in a duopoly model with heterogeneous goods under quantity and price competition. We obtain three conclusions: Firstly, under product heterogeneity, technology transfer can take any form. Secondly, the properties found in the homogeneous case generalize to the heterogeneous case with various degrees of generality. Finally, if demand is not symmetric we may find full technology transfer between firms with different sizes and that firms with similar technology do not engage in technology transfer. We find evidence of the latter in the market for antidepressants.
本文研究了数量和价格竞争条件下异质商品双寡头模型下的技术转移问题。我们得到三个结论:第一,在产品异质性下,技术转移可以采取任何形式。其次,在同质情况下发现的性质推广到异质情况,具有不同程度的普遍性。最后,如果需求不对称,我们可能会发现不同规模的企业之间存在完全的技术转移,而技术相似的企业不从事技术转移。我们在抗抑郁药市场上发现了后者的证据。
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引用次数: 0
WiFi Helps Define the Relevant Market for Wireless Services WiFi有助于定义无线服务的相关市场
Pub Date : 2018-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3260271
Harold W. Furchtgott-Roth
The Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) has recognized that WiFi plays an increasingly important role as a competitor to the services offered by the mobile wireless industry, including when evaluating the state of competition in the mobile wireless marketplace. When reviewing proposed mergers, however, the FCC relies on a product market definition, “mobile telephony/broadband services,” that has been unchanged for approximately a decade and that does not account for the changed role of WiFi in the competitive marketplace during this time. Notably, the FCC continues to rely on this market definition without undertaking any particular analysis and without the support of any empirical evidence. Since the FCC adopted its market definition: (1) the choice of WiFi has become a clear reflection of how Americans use wireless devices; (2) market conditions for wireless services have changed rapidly; (3) more data has migrated to WiFi offload — transmitting wireless data to a WiFi network — than has remained on the cellular networks, and most wireless services are used in both nomadic and fixed environments; (4) WiFi capabilities in wireless devices have evolved and become ubiquitous; (6) new technologies have not appeared to lessen demand for WiFi; (7) cable providers are challenging wireless carriers with WiFi offload and wireless services; and (8) consumers have become sensitive to price and quality in choosing between cellular services or WiFi. When the use of WiFi for consumer data offload is examined, a hypothetical monopolist may reveal that “mobile telephony/broadband services” are not a separate market. The FCC’s market definition was first adopted in 2008, when 3G technologies were first being deployed and 4G was only on the planning boards. Today, the technologies of 2008, and the associated market definitions, are outdated. Instead, new 5G technologies are being deployed. In this context, the FCC’s reliance on an outdated market definition results in an inaccurate understanding of competition in the market. Before conducting competitive analyses of the mobile marketplace, the FCC should carefully examine consumer choices of communications services and develop market definitions that reflect current technologies and consumer practices. WiFi, and the businesses that provide it, likely discipline prices of wireless services and are part of the same economic market.
美国联邦通信委员会(“FCC”)已经认识到,作为移动无线行业提供的服务的竞争者,WiFi扮演着越来越重要的角色,包括在评估移动无线市场的竞争状态时。然而,在审查拟议的合并时,FCC依赖于一个产品市场定义,即“移动电话/宽带服务”,这一定义在大约10年的时间里一直没有改变,并且没有考虑到WiFi在这一时期竞争激烈的市场中角色的变化。值得注意的是,FCC继续依赖这一市场定义,而没有进行任何特定的分析,也没有任何经验证据的支持。自FCC通过其市场定义以来:(1)WiFi的选择已经成为美国人如何使用无线设备的清晰反映;(2)无线服务的市场环境变化迅速;(3)更多的数据迁移到WiFi卸载(将无线数据传输到WiFi网络),而不是留在蜂窝网络上,大多数无线服务既用于游牧环境,也用于固定环境;(4)无线设备的WiFi功能不断发展,变得无处不在;(6)新技术并未减少对WiFi的需求;(7)有线电视提供商正以WiFi卸载和无线服务挑战无线运营商;(8)消费者在选择手机服务还是WiFi服务时对价格和质量变得敏感。当对使用WiFi进行消费者数据卸载进行调查时,一个假设的垄断者可能会揭示“移动电话/宽带服务”不是一个独立的市场。美国联邦通信委员会的市场定义最早是在2008年采用的,当时3G技术刚刚开始部署,4G只是在规划委员会上。今天,2008年的技术和相关的市场定义已经过时了。相反,新的5G技术正在部署。在这种情况下,FCC对过时的市场定义的依赖导致了对市场竞争的不准确理解。在对移动市场进行竞争分析之前,FCC应该仔细检查消费者对通信服务的选择,并制定反映当前技术和消费者实践的市场定义。WiFi和提供WiFi的企业可能会约束无线服务的价格,它们属于同一个经济市场。
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引用次数: 0
Content and Access Provision in a Discrete Competition Model 离散竞争模型中的内容和访问供应
Pub Date : 2018-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3141844
Bronwyn E. Howell, P. Potgieter
The non-rival, non-excludable and infinitely expansible characteristics of digital goods with marginal cost of zero strongly favours the use of bundling strategies. Theoretical tractability requires most models in the current literature to make highly stylized assumptions, rarely observed or anticipated in the real-life situations, motivating inquiry. This paper considers a competition model in which: * the firms, consumers and differentiated products are finite in number; * prices are discrete and not continuous; * consumers may purchase multiple items in a single product category where the degree of complementarity or substitutability of the product categories can also vary across consumers; and * where consumer-specific cost savings are obtained when purchasing multiple items from the same firm. Approximate solutions are obtained through numerical simulation. Firms act in concert to maximise the total firm revenue. Our main finding is that the interplay between maximal firm revenue, consumer surplus and prices is very complex and that high firm revenue and high consumer surplus are not antithetic. It suggests also that consumer surplus and market concentration are not necessarily related. Many market outcomes that are observed may be due to chance rather than design as diverse outcomes can accompany situations that are, to the firms, difficult to distinguish.
边际成本为零的数字商品的非竞争、非排他性和无限扩展性的特点,强烈支持使用捆绑策略。理论上的可追溯性要求当前文献中的大多数模型做出高度程式化的假设,很少在现实生活中观察或预期,激发探究。本文考虑了一个竞争模型:*企业、消费者和差异化产品的数量是有限的;*价格是离散的,不是连续的;*消费者可能在单一产品类别中购买多个项目,而产品类别的互补性或可替代性程度也可能因消费者而异;当消费者从同一家公司购买多种商品时,可以节省特定的成本。通过数值模拟得到近似解。公司一致行动以使公司的总收入最大化。我们的主要发现是,最大企业收入、消费者剩余和价格之间的相互作用非常复杂,高企业收入和高消费者剩余并不是对立的。它还表明,消费者剩余和市场集中度并不一定相关。观察到的许多市场结果可能是偶然的,而不是设计的,因为不同的结果可能伴随着企业难以区分的情况。
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引用次数: 0
Trust Building in Credence Goods Markets 诚信商品市场中的信任建设
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3029721
Yuk-fai Fong, Ting Liu, Xiaoxuan Meng
We study trust building in credence-goods markets in a dynamic setting. When consumers’ expected loss is low and it is efficient to fix only the more severe problem, there is no trade in the one-shot game. In the repeated game, an expert’s honesty is monitored through consumers’ rejection of his recommendations. The expert’s profit in the optimal equilibrium weakly increases in the discount factor but does not achieve the first best, which contrasts sharply with the optimal equilibrium in experience-goods markets. The optimal equilibrium involves undertreatment if the expert is sufficiently patient, and overtreatment if he is moderately patient. (JEL C73, D82, D83, Z13)
我们研究动态环境下信用商品市场的信任建立。当消费者的预期损失较低,并且只解决较严重的问题是有效的,在一次性博弈中不存在交易。在重复的游戏中,通过消费者拒绝专家的建议来监测专家的诚实。专家在最优均衡下的利润随着贴现因子的增加而微弱增加,但没有达到第一优,这与体验品市场的最优均衡形成鲜明对比。最优平衡包括:如果专家足够耐心,治疗不足;如果他有中等耐心,治疗过度。(凝胶c73, d82, d83, z13)
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引用次数: 6
The Stable Coexistence of Oligopolies and the Competitive Fringe 寡头垄断与边缘竞争的稳定共存
Pub Date : 2018-07-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3219757
V. Gonharenko, Dmitry S. Pokrovsky, S. Alexander
In this paper, we introduce a simple new theory on mixed competition between oligopolistic firms and the competitive fringe, assuming a comparative advantage for big firms and free entry for small _rms. Oligopolies are defined as conglomerates, each part of which benefits from joint operations through lower costs. Our theory implies that (i) industries with a few oligopolies arise as a stable outcome of mixed competition; (ii) mixed competition differs from the monopolistic competition of single-product firms due to the underproduction of oligopolistic firms and differs from pure oligopolistic competition sine constraints on this underproduction are imposed by the competitive fringe; (iii) a positive shock in the market size an strengthen or weaken the competitiveness of the economy through the growth of the number of oligopolies
在本文中,我们引入了一个简单的关于寡头垄断企业和竞争边缘之间混合竞争的新理论,假设大企业具有比较优势,小企业可以自由进入。寡头垄断被定义为企业集团,其中每个部分都通过降低成本从联合经营中受益。我们的理论表明:(1)少数寡头垄断的产业是混合竞争的稳定结果;(ii)混合竞争不同于单一产品企业的垄断竞争,因为寡头垄断企业的生产不足;混合竞争不同于纯粹寡头垄断竞争,因为这种生产不足是由竞争边缘施加的约束;(3)市场规模的积极冲击,通过寡头数量的增长增强或削弱经济的竞争力
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引用次数: 1
Real Estate Investments, Product Market Competition and Stock Returns 房地产投资、产品市场竞争与股票收益
Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12201
Moussa Diop
By limiting operating flexibility, real estate investments are found to increase firm risk, thus expected returns. This study introduces product market competition as a critical determinant of the relation between real estate investments and stock returns. As part of capacity strategies, these investments are generally associated with increased market power and lower cash flow volatility in oligopolistic industries. I present a simple model of oligopolistic competition showing a negative relation between real estate holdings and firm beta, and empirically confirm this prediction. Controlling for product market competition enhances identification of the endogenous relation between real estate investments and stock returns.
通过限制经营灵活性,发现房地产投资增加了企业风险,从而增加了预期收益。本研究将产品市场竞争作为房地产投资与股票收益关系的关键决定因素。作为产能战略的一部分,这些投资通常与寡头垄断行业中增加的市场力量和较低的现金流波动性有关。我提出了一个简单的寡头垄断竞争模型,显示房地产持有量与公司贝塔系数之间的负相关关系,并实证证实了这一预测。对产品市场竞争的控制增强了对房地产投资与股票收益内生关系的识别。
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引用次数: 6
Imperfectly Competitive Markets, Trade Unions and Inflation: Do Imperfectly Competitive Markets Transmit More Inflation Than Perfectly Competitive Ones? A Theoretical Appraisal 不完全竞争市场、工会与通货膨胀:不完全竞争市场比完全竞争市场传递更多通货膨胀吗?理论评价
Pub Date : 2018-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3269220
Luis C. Corchón
In this paper we study the theoretical plausibility of the conjecture that inflation arises because imperfectly competitive markets (ICM in the sequel) translate cost pushes in large price increases. We define two different measures of inflation transmission. We compare these measures in several models of ICM and in perfectly competitive markets (PCM in the seque!). In each case we find a necessary and sufficient condition for an ICM to transmit more inflation -according to the two measures- than that transmitted by a PCM.
在本文中,我们研究了通货膨胀是由于不完全竞争市场(续篇中的ICM)转化成本推动价格大幅上涨而引起的猜想的理论合理性。我们定义了通货膨胀传导的两种不同度量。我们在ICM和完全竞争市场(序列中的PCM !)的几个模型中比较了这些措施。在每种情况下,我们都找到了ICM比PCM传递更多通货膨胀的必要和充分条件。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
ERN: Monopoly
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