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Fuzzy inference system for environmental vulnerability assessment of protected areas: a case study of the Itupararanga environmental protection area in southeastern Brazil 保护区环境脆弱性评价的模糊推理系统——以巴西东南部Itupararanga环境保护区为例
Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2260361
Pedro Henrique de Godoy Fernandes, Tatiana Acácio da Silva, Miqueias Lima Duarte, Jackson de Sousa, Francisco Antônio Dupas
Abstract:In this paper, we present an environmental vulnerability index (EVI) based on the fuzzy inference system. The factors used for the formulation of the EVI were forest factor (FF), hydrological factor (HF) and environmental factor (EF), and used the Itupararanga environmental protection area (EPA) as a case study. The results showed that for the years studied (2012 and 2019), most forest fragments were classified as having a very low FF. Almost half of the water bodies presented a very low HF in 2012, which was also the case in 2019. Most areas of the EPA were classified as having a medium EF in 2012, while in 2019 they were classified as low. From these indices, in the two years, it was observed that most areas were classified with a very low EVI. Despite the very low EVI, it was observed that fragments with areas smaller than 50 hectares were suppressed. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage the creation of public policies aimed at the conservation of areas subject to anthropogenic pressure and restoration of forests in suppressed areas.Keywords: Atlantic Forestforest fragmentsenvironmental fragilityfuzzy logicDisclaimerAs a service to authors and researchers we are providing this version of an accepted manuscript (AM). Copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proofs will be undertaken on this manuscript before final publication of the Version of Record (VoR). During production and pre-press, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal relate to these versions also. Additional informationFundingThis study was supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brazil (CAPES) – Code Financing 001.
摘要:提出了一种基于模糊推理系统的环境脆弱性指数(EVI)。EVI的构成因子为森林因子(FF)、水文因子(HF)和环境因子(EF),并以Itupararanga环境保护区(EPA)为例进行了研究。结果表明,在研究的年份(2012年和2019年),大多数森林碎片被归类为FF非常低。2012年,几乎一半的水体呈现出非常低的HF, 2019年也是如此。EPA的大多数地区在2012年被列为中等污染指数,而在2019年被列为低污染指数。从这些指数来看,在两年中,大多数地区被划分为极低的EVI。尽管EVI很低,但面积小于50公顷的碎片被抑制。因此,有必要鼓励制定公共政策,以养护受到人为压力的地区和恢复被砍伐地区的森林。关键词:大西洋森林森林碎片环境脆弱性模糊逻辑免责声明作为对作者和研究人员的服务,我们提供这个版本的接受稿件(AM)。在最终出版版本记录(VoR)之前,将对该手稿进行编辑、排版和审查。在制作和印前,可能会发现可能影响内容的错误,所有适用于期刊的法律免责声明也与这些版本有关。本研究由巴西高级医疗卫生机构(CAPES) -编码融资001提供资金支持。
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引用次数: 0
Risk management and components’ coordination assessment in the design of a composite riverine flood defence system 复合型河道防洪系统设计中的风险管理和部件协调评估
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2249436
M. Behrouz, Saeed Alimohammadi
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of river response to water abstractions in the Weyib Watershed, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚韦伊布流域河流对取水的响应评估
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2248488
M. Aredo, T. K. Lohani, A. Mohammed
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引用次数: 1
Development of a watershed health assessment framework integrating ecological, social, cultural, economic and policy attributes 制定一个综合生态、社会、文化、经济和政策属性的流域健康评估框架
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2242830
Shella I. Talampas, S. Shrestha, S. Mohanasundaram, H. Loc
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引用次数: 0
Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins located within data-scarce areas using XGBoost: role of feature engineering and explainability 使用XGBoost在数据稀缺地区的未测量盆地进行流量预测:特征工程的作用和可解释性
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2245809
M. Alipour
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引用次数: 1
The Small Dams Safety Index (SDSI): a tool for small dams safety assessment 小型水坝安全指数(SDSI):小型水坝安全评价工具
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2022.2047711
Willian Leandro Henrique Pinto, Laura Maria Canno Ferreira Fais
ABSTRACT There is a great number of small dams around the world, usually built in private rural properties, for irrigation, animal watering or aquaculture; as they are getting old, the probability of a failure increases. In Brazil, the Brazilian National Policy of Dam Safety was approved, but it is intended only for large dams, unless it is classified with medium or high Associated Potential Damage. Usually, risk analysis methods are used to assess the safety of a dam, but this may be unfeasible for small dams, as it is costly and time-consuming, which is not affordable for small dams’ managers. This article proposed the Small Dams Safety Index (SDSI), which is a matrix with classification criteria to evaluate the safety of small dams. Besides providing a general level of the safety of a dam, it also helps to prioritize actions of maintenance, allowing the small dam’s manager to optimize time and financial resources.
世界上有大量的小型水坝,通常建在私人的农村土地上,用于灌溉、动物灌溉或水产养殖;随着年龄的增长,失败的可能性也在增加。在巴西,巴西国家大坝安全政策获得批准,但它只适用于大型水坝,除非它被归类为中等或高度相关潜在损害。通常采用风险分析的方法来评估大坝的安全性,但对于小型大坝来说,这种方法可能不可行,因为它成本高,耗时长,对于小型大坝的管理者来说是无法承受的。本文提出了小坝安全指数(SDSI),它是一个带有分类标准的矩阵,用于评价小坝的安全性。除了提供大坝的总体安全水平外,它还有助于确定维护行动的优先级,使小水坝的管理者能够优化时间和财务资源。
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引用次数: 1
Riparian health conditions of headwater streams in Southwestern Nigeria 尼日利亚西南部水源溪流的河岸健康状况
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2022.2047710
Olutoyin Adeola Fashae, Opeyemi Caleb Fatayo, Adeyemi Olusola
ABSTRACT River health assessments and threat analysis on the riparian corridors in Sub-Saharan Africa have received little or no attention, therefore this study assessed the healthiness of riparian corridors using the Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition (RARC) indices within a river catchment. The biogeography of the riparian corridor, factors responsible for the modification of riparian vegetation, and causes of riparian disturbance were examined. Twelve study sites were randomly selected from where reaches were identified. The riparian corridor extents were delimited from the bank of the river to the uppermost point within reaches. Species diversity indices were computed while bank height, width, and average depth were measured. Also, cross-sectional area and river discharge were derived along each riparian zone using standard measurement techniques. The ecological values and threat severity along each riparian zone were assessed following the RARC model. The ecological values and disturbance level revealed r as −0.7(p < 0.05). The variation in species composition along the river orders suggests that the first-order streams have the highest number of taxa. The level of ecological destruction is fairly low in the first-order streams and increases as order increases. This study concludes that higher-order rivers have low diversity, low ecological values, and consequently, relatively poor health, especially when under severe anthropogenic pressure.
摘要/ ABSTRACT摘要:撒哈拉以南非洲地区的河流健康评估和河流廊道威胁分析很少受到关注,因此本研究利用RARC指数对流域内河流廊道的健康状况进行了评估。研究了滨水廊道的生物地理特征、滨水廊道植被变化的影响因素和滨水廊道干扰的成因。从确定河段的地方随机选择12个研究地点。河岸走廊的范围从河岸到可及的最高点被划定。计算物种多样性指数,同时测量河岸高度、宽度和平均深度。此外,还利用标准测量技术计算了各河岸带的横截面积和河流流量。采用RARC模型对各河岸带的生态价值和威胁程度进行了评价。生态值和干扰程度r为- 0.7(p < 0.05)。物种组成沿河流阶的变化表明,一级溪流的分类群数量最多。一级河流的生态破坏程度较低,随等级的增加而增加。研究认为,高阶河流多样性低,生态价值低,健康状况相对较差,特别是在严重的人为压力下。
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引用次数: 1
Colorado River Basin: conflict management under hydrologic stress and institutional gridlock 科罗拉多河流域:水文压力和制度僵局下的冲突管理
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2229802
N. Grigg
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引用次数: 0
Post-processing quantitative precipitation forecasts using the seasonally coherent calibration model 利用季节相干定标模式的后处理定量降水预报
Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2218094
Nibedita Samal, R. Ashwin, Qichun Yang, Ankit Singh, Sanjeev Kumar Jha, Q. J. Wang
Skilful precipitation ensemble forecasts are necessary to produce trustworthy hydrologic predictions. Raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to be error-prone. In this study, sub-basin averaged deterministic QPFs with five-day lead times from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are post-processed through the Seasonally Coherent Calibration (SCC) model for the Narmada and Godavari River basins of India. The SCC model incorporates seasonal climatology from long observations into forecasts and produces calibrated forecasts based on a joint probability model. The SCC model results are compared with the post-processed forecasts from the state-of-the-art Quantile Mapping (QM) method. The results suggest that the probabilistic ensemble forecasts generated from the SCC model have improved skill throughout five-day lead times. Further, the application of SCC-calibrated precipitation forecasts is demonstrated using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate streamflow forecasts.
熟练的降水集合预报是产生可靠的水文预报所必需的。从数值天气预报(NWP)模式得到的原始定量降水预报(QPFs)是容易出错的。在这项研究中,通过对印度Narmada和Godavari河流域的季节性相干校准(SCC)模型进行后处理,从欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)获得的具有5天提前期的次流域平均确定性qpf。SCC模式将长期观测的季节气候学纳入预报,并根据联合概率模型产生校准后的预报。SCC模型结果与最先进的分位数映射(QM)方法的后处理预测进行了比较。结果表明,由SCC模型生成的概率集合预测在五天的提前期内提高了技能。此外,利用水土评估工具(SWAT)演示了scc校准降水预报的应用,以生成径流预报。
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引用次数: 0
Flood Susceptibility Mapping using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process for Cedar Rapids, Iowa 用模糊层次分析法绘制爱荷华州锡达拉皮兹市洪水易感性图
IF 2.5 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2216936
Beyza Atiye Cikmaz, Enes Yildirim, I. Demir
Floods affect over 2.2 billion people worldwide, and their frequency is increasing at an alarming rate compared to other natural disasters. Presidential disaster declarations have issued increasingly almost every year in Iowa for the past 30 years, indicating that the state is on the rise of flood risk. While significant scientific and technological advancement is becoming available for many flood mitigation activities, their on-the-ground consequences are hampered, among other things, by the lack of tools to quickly integrate the growing data into accessible and usable flood mitigation decisions. A multi-disciplinary approach is required, in which the underlying hydrologic processes that cause floods are closely linked with watershed-level socio-economic functions using effective collaboration tools to ensure community participation in the co-production of mitigation plans while paying attention to socio-environmental justice principles. Considering the existing limitations and needs, we conducted a flood risk assessment by utilizing geophysical and socio-economic datasets for a case study in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Flood risk outputs are generated based on three main risk groups: geophysical-based flood risk, socioeconomic risk, and combined flood risk. Our results indicate that high- and very-high-risk flood susceptibility zones are primarily located in central urban areas with lower elevations. According to overall results, a large area of Cedar Rapids consists of a medium risk level according to the flood risk map combined with the fuzzy AHP method. The results show that high and very high-risk areas are 16% of the examined area, medium, low and very low-risk areas correspond to 84%. Besides, nearly 40% of the population lives in high to very high flood risk zones.
洪水影响着全世界超过22亿人,与其他自然灾害相比,洪水的频率正在以惊人的速度增加。在过去的30年里,爱荷华州几乎每年都会发布越来越多的总统灾难宣言,这表明该州的洪水风险正在上升。尽管许多防洪活动正在取得重大的科学和技术进步,但由于缺乏将不断增长的数据快速整合到可访问和可用的防洪决策中的工具,这些活动的实地后果受到了阻碍。需要一种多学科的方法,其中导致洪水的基本水文过程与流域层面的社会经济功能密切相关,使用有效的合作工具确保社区参与共同制定缓解计划,同时注意社会环境正义原则。考虑到现有的局限性和需求,我们利用地球物理和社会经济数据集在爱荷华州锡达拉皮兹进行了洪水风险评估。洪水风险输出基于三个主要风险组:基于地球物理的洪水风险、社会经济风险和综合洪水风险。我们的研究结果表明,高风险和极高风险的洪水易发区主要位于海拔较低的中心城区。根据总体结果,根据洪水风险图和模糊AHP方法,锡达拉皮兹大面积地区属于中等风险等级。结果显示,高风险和非常高风险地区占检查地区的16%,中风险、低风险和非常低风险地区占84%。此外,近40%的人口生活在高到极高的洪水风险区。
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引用次数: 7
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International Journal of River Basin Management
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