Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1007/s40996-024-01590-8
Sajjad Pourdoustmohammadi, Ramin Ansari
With the increasing number of construction projects in modern times, there is a pressing need to effectively manage the three key aspects of a project: time, cost, and quality. Among these 3 aspects, time and cost aspects play a very important role in different stages of the project life cycle, because they can influence each other. Delays in the project can lead to increased costs, especially in countries suffering from inflation. Conversely, attempts to complete the project on time despite delays can result in a decrease in quality. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide a risk assessment method based on Bayesian Belief network (BBN) to predict the delay and cost increase as well as the time and cost of the project and also to provide a decision support system (DSS) to determine the most suitable delay reduction strategy in terms of cost it was in construction project. The developed proposed framework was implemented in a 17-story tower and its results were compared with real data from the project. The findings show that the developed BBN has a high degree of accuracy in predicting project delays and cost overruns, and the proposed DDS can effectively determine the most suitable delay reduction strategy while keeping costs under control.
{"title":"Developing a Scenario-Based Optimization Model for Planning Risks in Construction Projects by Integrating a Decision Support System with Bayesian Belief Network Analysis Approach: A Case Study in High-Rise Buildings","authors":"Sajjad Pourdoustmohammadi, Ramin Ansari","doi":"10.1007/s40996-024-01590-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-024-01590-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the increasing number of construction projects in modern times, there is a pressing need to effectively manage the three key aspects of a project: time, cost, and quality. Among these 3 aspects, time and cost aspects play a very important role in different stages of the project life cycle, because they can influence each other. Delays in the project can lead to increased costs, especially in countries suffering from inflation. Conversely, attempts to complete the project on time despite delays can result in a decrease in quality. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide a risk assessment method based on Bayesian Belief network (BBN) to predict the delay and cost increase as well as the time and cost of the project and also to provide a decision support system (DSS) to determine the most suitable delay reduction strategy in terms of cost it was in construction project. The developed proposed framework was implemented in a 17-story tower and its results were compared with real data from the project. The findings show that the developed BBN has a high degree of accuracy in predicting project delays and cost overruns, and the proposed DDS can effectively determine the most suitable delay reduction strategy while keeping costs under control.</p>","PeriodicalId":14550,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-19DOI: 10.1007/s40996-024-01579-3
Peyman Mahmoudi, Rajib Maity, Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi, Kironmala Chanda
The present study aims to investigate a trend of long-term changes in drought proneness in Iran. For this purpose, we first evaluate the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) based on the gridded data of soil moisture of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA, for 64 years (1955–2018) within the Iranian political boundaries. The mutual relations of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were analyzed through the Kendall-Tau correlation coefficient. It was shown that the combination of reliability and vulnerability could be the best combination for developing the Drought Management Index (DMI) on Normal copula. In addition, the long-term trends of change in drought proneness were evaluated through various fuzzy regression models in the framework of DMI. The results of trend analysis indicated that disregarding the northern and western halves of the country, which lack any trend, the long-term trends of change in drought proneness have been increasing in the eastern, southeastern, and central parts, in a way that the highest increasing trend gradient in these regions was 0.0038 for 5-year periods (or 0.228 for the whole 64 years). This increasing trend indicates the higher drought proneness for these areas.
{"title":"Changing Pattern of Drought Proneness Across Iran","authors":"Peyman Mahmoudi, Rajib Maity, Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi, Kironmala Chanda","doi":"10.1007/s40996-024-01579-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-024-01579-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present study aims to investigate a trend of long-term changes in drought proneness in Iran. For this purpose, we first evaluate the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) based on the gridded data of soil moisture of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA, for 64 years (1955–2018) within the Iranian political boundaries. The mutual relations of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were analyzed through the Kendall-Tau correlation coefficient. It was shown that the combination of reliability and vulnerability could be the best combination for developing the Drought Management Index (DMI) on Normal copula. In addition, the long-term trends of change in drought proneness were evaluated through various fuzzy regression models in the framework of DMI. The results of trend analysis indicated that disregarding the northern and western halves of the country, which lack any trend, the long-term trends of change in drought proneness have been increasing in the eastern, southeastern, and central parts, in a way that the highest increasing trend gradient in these regions was 0.0038 for 5-year periods (or 0.228 for the whole 64 years). This increasing trend indicates the higher drought proneness for these areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":14550,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-19DOI: 10.1007/s40996-024-01582-8
Anamika Bandopadhyay, Debabrata Giri
The emerging trend in civil engineering involves incorporating geopolymer into soil amendments. This experimental investigation involved the preparation of composite samples by blending soil, ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), red mud (RM), and phosphogypsum, activated using a sodium-based alkali solution. A series of mechanical and durability tests were conducted to identify the optimal sample for further evaluation. Utilizing a statistical approach, analysis of variance was applied to ascertain the optimal mix design and evaluate the sensitivity of RM, GGBS, and chemicals to strength characteristics. The maximum unconfined compressive strength obtained was 12.08 MPa after 28 days of curing, representing a significant increase of 140 times compared to the original soil, with a 55% soil replacement by weight. As GGBS increased and soil content decreased in the matrix, the composite exhibited brittle behaviour during failure. Weathering resistance was evaluated through wet-dry cycles and submergence in a sulphuric acid solution. It was noticed that structural integrity was achieved by using both sodium silicate and sodium hydroxide. The findings highlighted the crucial role of GGBS among the by-products in enhancing strength and preserving structural integrity. Statistical analysis, with a p-value significantly below 0.05, confirmed the model’s alignment with laboratory results. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the material, the surface morphology and diffractogram of the composite were analysed using scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffractogram, revealing structural and morphological changes in the geopolymer-bonded soil.