This paper studies the effect of unemployment benefits on the unemployment and subsequent employment duration using individual data from the European Community Household Panel, for France, Germany, and the UK. The empirical analysis is based on a two-state mixed proportional hazard model allowing for flexible duration dependence and state specific unobserved heterogeneity. We find that recipients, relative to non-recipients, face lower exit rates from unemployment, while an additional month in unemployment increases their subsequent employment stability. This positive correlation between previous unemployment and subsequent employment duration for the recipients is statistically significant for the short-term unemployed in France and Germany. The results indicate that in these two countries, which provide more generous benefits relative to the UK, recipients who search for a longer period within the first year in unemployment obtain higher employment stability.
本文利用来自欧洲共同体家庭小组(European Community Household Panel)的法国、德国和英国的个人数据，研究了失业救济金对失业和随后就业时间的影响。实证分析基于两状态混合比例风险模型，允许灵活的持续时间依赖和状态特定的未观察到的异质性。我们发现，相对于非受助人，受助人面临着较低的失业退出率，而多一个月的失业会增加他们随后的就业稳定性。对于法国和德国的短期失业者来说，之前的失业和随后的就业时间之间的这种正相关关系在统计上是显著的。结果表明，在这两个国家，相对于英国提供更慷慨的福利，在失业的第一年内寻找更长时间的受助人获得更高的就业稳定性。
{"title":"The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Duration and the Subsequent Employment Stability","authors":"Konstantinos Tatsiramos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.555702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.555702","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of unemployment benefits on the unemployment and subsequent employment duration using individual data from the European Community Household Panel, for France, Germany, and the UK. The empirical analysis is based on a two-state mixed proportional hazard model allowing for flexible duration dependence and state specific unobserved heterogeneity. We find that recipients, relative to non-recipients, face lower exit rates from unemployment, while an additional month in unemployment increases their subsequent employment stability. This positive correlation between previous unemployment and subsequent employment duration for the recipients is statistically significant for the short-term unemployed in France and Germany. The results indicate that in these two countries, which provide more generous benefits relative to the UK, recipients who search for a longer period within the first year in unemployment obtain higher employment stability.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"275 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116556576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In most industrialized countries the majority of employed people are full-time employees with a non-temporary job and work at a workplace of the company in which they are employed. They are making careers at the employer they are employed by and most work-place changes are to other jobs of the same type. But it does not include large groups in the labour market. Many of those who have tenured positions work part-time, not full-time, and many both full-time and part-time workers have fixed-period contracts, contracts which only guarantee employment for a specified period of time. Some demographic groups are overrepresented among those with those types of jobs, young people, women, immigrants, ethnic minorities, and older workers, who to a large extent for different reasons do not have a very strong position in the labour market. In this paper two groups outside the core of full-time employees are analyzed: those employed in temporary employment agencies, and the selfemployed. The size and composition of both groups have changed during the last decade. The number employed by temporary employment agencies has increased in Western Europe as a consequence of deregulation of this sector in the 1990s, and the composition of the selfemployed has changed from mainly being farmers to being business-owners in various sectors. We will use Sweden as an example, but the Swedish experience is not unique. Other countries have similar and in many cases more of those types of employment.
{"title":"Other Forms of Employment: Temporary Employment Agencies and Self-Employment","authors":"P. Andersson, Eskil Wadensjo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.556142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.556142","url":null,"abstract":"In most industrialized countries the majority of employed people are full-time employees with a non-temporary job and work at a workplace of the company in which they are employed. They are making careers at the employer they are employed by and most work-place changes are to other jobs of the same type. But it does not include large groups in the labour market. Many of those who have tenured positions work part-time, not full-time, and many both full-time and part-time workers have fixed-period contracts, contracts which only guarantee employment for a specified period of time. Some demographic groups are overrepresented among those with those types of jobs, young people, women, immigrants, ethnic minorities, and older workers, who to a large extent for different reasons do not have a very strong position in the labour market. In this paper two groups outside the core of full-time employees are analyzed: those employed in temporary employment agencies, and the selfemployed. The size and composition of both groups have changed during the last decade. The number employed by temporary employment agencies has increased in Western Europe as a consequence of deregulation of this sector in the 1990s, and the composition of the selfemployed has changed from mainly being farmers to being business-owners in various sectors. We will use Sweden as an example, but the Swedish experience is not unique. Other countries have similar and in many cases more of those types of employment.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131933204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the dependence of the program effect on varying entry times for a low cost job-search assistance program in Austria. The Austrian targeting policy is to admit every unemployed to a job-search program before the fourth month. The program effect is measured by a shift in the transition rate into employment upon program entry, using the timing-of-events method. Our findings are that the program effect is positive and does not vary significantly for program entries during the first year of unemployment, but it drops drastically thereafter.
{"title":"Employment Effects of Early Interventions on Job Search Programs","authors":"A. Weber, H. Hofer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.525904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.525904","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the dependence of the program effect on varying entry times for a low cost job-search assistance program in Austria. The Austrian targeting policy is to admit every unemployed to a job-search program before the fourth month. The program effect is measured by a shift in the transition rate into employment upon program entry, using the timing-of-events method. Our findings are that the program effect is positive and does not vary significantly for program entries during the first year of unemployment, but it drops drastically thereafter.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124748363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Temporary layoffs are an important feature of the United States labor market. If these employer-employee relationships exist because of valuable job-matches, unemployment among high-productivity laid-off workers may be optimal from societal perspective. However, because of asymmetric information, low-productivity workers may behave strategically, and choose unemployment instead of low-wage jobs, resulting in an inefficient level of unemployment. This paper shows that in such cases, a re-employment bonus may give the correct incentives to laid-off workers and achieve the optimal equilibrium. The paper analyzes the equity properties of such a policy and its cost effectiveness. Finally, the model fits the data and offers several policy implications.
{"title":"Re-Employment Bonuses in a Signalling Model of Temporary Layoffs","authors":"Núria Rodríguez-Planas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.504444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.504444","url":null,"abstract":"Temporary layoffs are an important feature of the United States labor market. If these employer-employee relationships exist because of valuable job-matches, unemployment among high-productivity laid-off workers may be optimal from societal perspective. However, because of asymmetric information, low-productivity workers may behave strategically, and choose unemployment instead of low-wage jobs, resulting in an inefficient level of unemployment. This paper shows that in such cases, a re-employment bonus may give the correct incentives to laid-off workers and achieve the optimal equilibrium. The paper analyzes the equity properties of such a policy and its cost effectiveness. Finally, the model fits the data and offers several policy implications.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"185 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115179513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There are few studies on unemployment duration in developing countries. This is the first study on duration aspect of unemployment in Turkey. We use the results of the Household Labor Force Surveys of 2000 and 2001 to construct a cross-section of durations of unemployment spells. We analyze the determinants of probability of leaving unemployment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labor market conditions are examined. Non-Parametric and parametric estimation methods are used, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity. Two alternative definitions of unemployment are considered. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. Our results indicate that women are experiencing higher unemployment durations then men. Age has a negative and education has a positive effect on the hazard rate. The effect of the local unemployment rate is large and negative. Duration dependence of the exit rate from unemployment is different for men and women. For men, there is slight U-shaped duration dependence, while for women there is no duration dependence.
{"title":"Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey","authors":"A. Tansel, H. Taşçi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.512222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.512222","url":null,"abstract":"There are few studies on unemployment duration in developing countries. This is the first study on duration aspect of unemployment in Turkey. We use the results of the Household Labor Force Surveys of 2000 and 2001 to construct a cross-section of durations of unemployment spells. We analyze the determinants of probability of leaving unemployment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labor market conditions are examined. Non-Parametric and parametric estimation methods are used, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity. Two alternative definitions of unemployment are considered. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. Our results indicate that women are experiencing higher unemployment durations then men. Age has a negative and education has a positive effect on the hazard rate. The effect of the local unemployment rate is large and negative. Duration dependence of the exit rate from unemployment is different for men and women. For men, there is slight U-shaped duration dependence, while for women there is no duration dependence.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"505 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120875536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper a matching model with variable search intensity that incorporates the inactive is developed and calibrated. The model is used to look at possible explanations for the recent sharp decline in the UK working-age unemployment rate, which has been accompanied by only a moderate reduction in the working-age inactivity rate. From the range of different shocks considered, the most plausible combination consists of a significant reduction in unemployment benefits, perhaps reflecting reduced coverage, coupled with an increase in the student population. According to the model, these shocks would not have produced an increase in aggregate wage pressure.
{"title":"A Matching Model of Non-Employment and Wage Pressure","authors":"Andrew Brigden, Jonathan Thomas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.597583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.597583","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper a matching model with variable search intensity that incorporates the inactive is developed and calibrated. The model is used to look at possible explanations for the recent sharp decline in the UK working-age unemployment rate, which has been accompanied by only a moderate reduction in the working-age inactivity rate. From the range of different shocks considered, the most plausible combination consists of a significant reduction in unemployment benefits, perhaps reflecting reduced coverage, coupled with an increase in the student population. According to the model, these shocks would not have produced an increase in aggregate wage pressure.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123272446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed workers. Self- employment is distinct from wage sector employment in two important respects. First, self- employment is a low-income, low- variation alternative to wage work. Second, once a worker enters self-employment, he loses eligibility to receive unemployment insurance benefits—at least until he returns to wage sector employment. The model suggests that flows into self-employment are countercyclical and flows out of self-employment are procyclical. Data from the NLSY for males at least 21 years of age are used to investigate how demographic and economic variables influence the decision to become self- employed. Fixed effects and random effects logit results indicate that young men are more likely to be self-employed when their wage work opportunities are more limited. Specifically, higher local unemployment rates lead workers to self- select into self-employment, as does past unemployment experience. The process is different for Whites and Nonwhites with education being irrelevant for White self- employed workers. In contrast, for Nonwhites higher education reduces the probability of entering self-employment.
{"title":"Self-Employment as an Alternative to Unemployment","authors":"Ellen R. Rissman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.486988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.486988","url":null,"abstract":"Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed workers. Self- employment is distinct from wage sector employment in two important respects. First, self- employment is a low-income, low- variation alternative to wage work. Second, once a worker enters self-employment, he loses eligibility to receive unemployment insurance benefits—at least until he returns to wage sector employment. The model suggests that flows into self-employment are countercyclical and flows out of self-employment are procyclical. Data from the NLSY for males at least 21 years of age are used to investigate how demographic and economic variables influence the decision to become self- employed. Fixed effects and random effects logit results indicate that young men are more likely to be self-employed when their wage work opportunities are more limited. Specifically, higher local unemployment rates lead workers to self- select into self-employment, as does past unemployment experience. The process is different for Whites and Nonwhites with education being irrelevant for White self- employed workers. In contrast, for Nonwhites higher education reduces the probability of entering self-employment.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114652332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Two main hypotheses can be found in literature on why elderly workers have a lower probability of using information technology than their younger peers: lower learning capabilities and reduced incentives to invest in human capital. I use law changes in the unemployment compensation system enacted in Germany during the 1980s and 1990s to demonstrate that "incentives" are more important than "capabilities" in determining variation in IT usage. Elderly workers only fell behind the IT usage rates of their younger peers during the 1980s and 1990s, when unemployment benefits got increasingly generous, thereby reducing their incentives to invest in human capital.
{"title":"The Effects of Changes in the Unemployment Compensation System on the Adoption of it by Older Workers","authors":"A. Spitz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.748784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.748784","url":null,"abstract":"Two main hypotheses can be found in literature on why elderly workers have a lower probability of using information technology than their younger peers: lower learning capabilities and reduced incentives to invest in human capital. I use law changes in the unemployment compensation system enacted in Germany during the 1980s and 1990s to demonstrate that \"incentives\" are more important than \"capabilities\" in determining variation in IT usage. Elderly workers only fell behind the IT usage rates of their younger peers during the 1980s and 1990s, when unemployment benefits got increasingly generous, thereby reducing their incentives to invest in human capital.","PeriodicalId":149087,"journal":{"name":"Unemployment Insurance","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128906497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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