Recent research in behavioural finance has tested for evidence of mood misattribution influencing investor decision-making. The approach adopted is to test for a relationship between widely experienced mood proxy variables and equity returns. Variables ranging from weather, to Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), to sporting events, amongst other variables, have all been used in the process of these investigations. This paper conducts a comprehensive, econometrically robust, analysis of the influence of mood proxy variables across a global range of 37 equity market indices and 22 small cap indices. Our study combines key mood proxy variables tested in a range of previous papers in one study. We specifically test for SAD, Daylight Savings Time Changes, lunar, and geomagnetic effects. Only SAD appears to have any effect, worldwide.
{"title":"Are Weather Induced Moods Priced in Global Equity Markets?","authors":"M. Dowling, B. Lucey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.805944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.805944","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research in behavioural finance has tested for evidence of mood misattribution influencing investor decision-making. The approach adopted is to test for a relationship between widely experienced mood proxy variables and equity returns. Variables ranging from weather, to Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), to sporting events, amongst other variables, have all been used in the process of these investigations. This paper conducts a comprehensive, econometrically robust, analysis of the influence of mood proxy variables across a global range of 37 equity market indices and 22 small cap indices. Our study combines key mood proxy variables tested in a range of previous papers in one study. We specifically test for SAD, Daylight Savings Time Changes, lunar, and geomagnetic effects. Only SAD appears to have any effect, worldwide.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114024797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recently there has been some interest in the credit risk literature in models which involve stopping times related to excursions. The classical Black-Scholes-Merton-Cox approach postulates that default may occur, either at or before maturity, when the firm's value process falls below a critical threshold. In the excursion approach the duration of default, the time period from the financial distress announcement through its resolution, is explicitly modeled. In this contribution, we provide a review of the literature on excursion time models of credit risk. Moreover, we examine the effects on credit spreads structure of different specifications of the event that triggers default.
{"title":"Valuing Defaultable Bonds: An Excursion Time Approach","authors":"M. Nardon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.858944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.858944","url":null,"abstract":"Recently there has been some interest in the credit risk literature in models which involve stopping times related to excursions. The classical Black-Scholes-Merton-Cox approach postulates that default may occur, either at or before maturity, when the firm's value process falls below a critical threshold. In the excursion approach the duration of default, the time period from the financial distress announcement through its resolution, is explicitly modeled. In this contribution, we provide a review of the literature on excursion time models of credit risk. Moreover, we examine the effects on credit spreads structure of different specifications of the event that triggers default.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122310162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The solution adopted in Basel II to deal with procyclicality of capital requirements (i.e. through the cycle ratings and long-run average estimates of default probabilities) implies a reduction in the risk-sensitivity that contradicts the original spirit of the new framework.In order to preserve risk-sensitivity and to dampen procyclicality at the same time, Pederzoli and Torricelli (2005) set up a model which relies on a business cycle forecast in the estimation of the default probability and provide an application for the US. The modelling approach hinges on a forward-looking definition of capital requirements, in anticipation of the business cycle with a possible smoothing effect on the business cycle turning points.The present paper checks the robustness of the approach for the Italian case, where alternative business cycles chronologies are used and ratings have to be approximated by exploiting default data provided by the Bank of Italy. Findings suggest that the comparison between the alternative chronologies is an important issue.
{"title":"Forward-Looking Estimation of Default Probabilities with Italian Data","authors":"G. Marotta, C. Pederzoli, C. Torricelli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.715921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.715921","url":null,"abstract":"The solution adopted in Basel II to deal with procyclicality of capital requirements (i.e. through the cycle ratings and long-run average estimates of default probabilities) implies a reduction in the risk-sensitivity that contradicts the original spirit of the new framework.In order to preserve risk-sensitivity and to dampen procyclicality at the same time, Pederzoli and Torricelli (2005) set up a model which relies on a business cycle forecast in the estimation of the default probability and provide an application for the US. The modelling approach hinges on a forward-looking definition of capital requirements, in anticipation of the business cycle with a possible smoothing effect on the business cycle turning points.The present paper checks the robustness of the approach for the Italian case, where alternative business cycles chronologies are used and ratings have to be approximated by exploiting default data provided by the Bank of Italy. Findings suggest that the comparison between the alternative chronologies is an important issue.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133673535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Traditionally, analysts and traders have expected to see a stable, reasonably predictable, relationship between the price (and thus the rate of return) of gold and silver. Both these metals retain important industrial, commercial and investment uses. Recent research has cast some doubt on this assumption. We find that while over the 1990's the relationship may well have been more unstable, when a longer timeframe is examined the relationship is stable but weakening. This we hypothesize is due to the changing nature of the demand patterns for gold versus silver.
{"title":"The Evolving Relationship between Gold and Silver 1978-2002: Evidence from a Dynamic Cointegration Analysis: A Note","authors":"Edel Tully, B. Lucey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.739646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.739646","url":null,"abstract":"Traditionally, analysts and traders have expected to see a stable, reasonably predictable, relationship between the price (and thus the rate of return) of gold and silver. Both these metals retain important industrial, commercial and investment uses. Recent research has cast some doubt on this assumption. We find that while over the 1990's the relationship may well have been more unstable, when a longer timeframe is examined the relationship is stable but weakening. This we hypothesize is due to the changing nature of the demand patterns for gold versus silver.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127749515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we generalize the Clark-Jokung 50% portfolio theorem(Management Science, 1999) to an arbitrary threshold and we apply it to a wide and well-known family of distributions, the elliptical distributions (multivariate normal, Student t, multivariate exponential,...). We consider the specific case of a two-asset portfolio where the cumulative conditional expected outcome on one asset is greater or equal to the cumulative conditional expected outcome of the other asset.We show that when the joint distribution of the returns of the two assets follows an elliptical distribution, the conditions for 100alpha% portfolio theorem to hold are a higher expected return for the dominant asset and that the threshold 100alpha% is less than the percentage invested in the minimum-variance portfolio.
{"title":"Portfolio Rules for Conditional Stochastic Dominance: Applications to the Elliptical Distributions","authors":"Ephraim Clark, Octave Jokung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.899599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.899599","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we generalize the Clark-Jokung 50% portfolio theorem(Management Science, 1999) to an arbitrary threshold and we apply it to a wide and well-known family of distributions, the elliptical distributions (multivariate normal, Student t, multivariate exponential,...). We consider the specific case of a two-asset portfolio where the cumulative conditional expected outcome on one asset is greater or equal to the cumulative conditional expected outcome of the other asset.We show that when the joint distribution of the returns of the two assets follows an elliptical distribution, the conditions for 100alpha% portfolio theorem to hold are a higher expected return for the dominant asset and that the threshold 100alpha% is less than the percentage invested in the minimum-variance portfolio.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123737260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Julio Pindado, Luis Fernandes Rodrigues, Chabela de la Torre
This study examines the determinants of financial insolvency costs, by making use of a more accurate indicator of the probability of insolvency and considering the effect of institutional differences on these costs. We find that insolvency costs are positively related to the probability of financial insolvency, and negatively related to leverage and the holding of liquid assets. Insolvency costs increase with underinvestment processes, which in turn emerge as a consequence of the high probability of financial insolvency. Employment reductions are also a widespread practice for reacting to the crisis, even though the effect of this policy on insolvency costs depends on institutional differences. Finally, the sensitivity of insolvency costs to the probability of financial insolvency, leverage and the holding of liquid assets depends on the institutional context as well.
{"title":"Determinants of Financial Insolvency Costs: New Evidence from International Data","authors":"Julio Pindado, Luis Fernandes Rodrigues, Chabela de la Torre","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.528082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.528082","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the determinants of financial insolvency costs, by making use of a more accurate indicator of the probability of insolvency and considering the effect of institutional differences on these costs. We find that insolvency costs are positively related to the probability of financial insolvency, and negatively related to leverage and the holding of liquid assets. Insolvency costs increase with underinvestment processes, which in turn emerge as a consequence of the high probability of financial insolvency. Employment reductions are also a widespread practice for reacting to the crisis, even though the effect of this policy on insolvency costs depends on institutional differences. Finally, the sensitivity of insolvency costs to the probability of financial insolvency, leverage and the holding of liquid assets depends on the institutional context as well.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122267497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The existence of daily seasonal patterns in the returns to 5 base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (Aluminium, Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel) is examined, using robust methods, over the 1989-2002 period. The paper begins by examining the extent of daily seasonality in asset returns, the majority of papers on this area dealing with equities. However, there is some evidence of daily seasonality in areas other than corporate liabilities, particularly in gold. No papers have to date been published that have examined the issue in base metals. The paper then describes the operations of the London Metal Exchange, the exchange on which the metal contracts analysed here are traded. The data are cash market data on a daily frequency from January 1989 to the end of August 2002. The paper then proceeds to discuss methodological issues, pointing out the need to adjust for large sample sizes and for the distributional characteristics of the data prior to making any inferences regarding the existence or otherwise of seasonality. The roles of resampling methods, robust regressions (Least Trimmed of Squares, M-Class Estimators and Least Absolute Deviation Regression) are also discussed, as are non-parametric methods. The results indicate that daily seasonality does appear to exist in the metal markets, particularly important days being Monday and Thursday. Monday is the lowest return of the week and also negative, with Thursday being the highest (Friday being the second highest). Thus the metal market appears to show the stereotypical pattern of daily seasonality that was commonly described in the literature on the equity markets.
{"title":"Daily Seasonality in Lme Base Metal Returns 1989-2002: A Robust Analysis","authors":"B. Lucey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.368301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.368301","url":null,"abstract":"The existence of daily seasonal patterns in the returns to 5 base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (Aluminium, Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel) is examined, using robust methods, over the 1989-2002 period. The paper begins by examining the extent of daily seasonality in asset returns, the majority of papers on this area dealing with equities. However, there is some evidence of daily seasonality in areas other than corporate liabilities, particularly in gold. No papers have to date been published that have examined the issue in base metals. The paper then describes the operations of the London Metal Exchange, the exchange on which the metal contracts analysed here are traded. The data are cash market data on a daily frequency from January 1989 to the end of August 2002. The paper then proceeds to discuss methodological issues, pointing out the need to adjust for large sample sizes and for the distributional characteristics of the data prior to making any inferences regarding the existence or otherwise of seasonality. The roles of resampling methods, robust regressions (Least Trimmed of Squares, M-Class Estimators and Least Absolute Deviation Regression) are also discussed, as are non-parametric methods. The results indicate that daily seasonality does appear to exist in the metal markets, particularly important days being Monday and Thursday. Monday is the lowest return of the week and also negative, with Thursday being the highest (Friday being the second highest). Thus the metal market appears to show the stereotypical pattern of daily seasonality that was commonly described in the literature on the equity markets.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123021852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Duration is often applied to relate bond price changes to changes in the yield to maturity (or key interest rates). As the relationship between bond price and yield is non-linear, convexity characteristics can be used to improve the linear first order approximation. In this paper, we show that knowledge of a bond’s duration (or key rate durations) allows a better price return approximation than is suggested in the literature. The proposed approximations may be helpful in Value-at-Risk analyses where duration (and convexity) approximations are used as fast alternatives for full revaluation. Our main approximation formula is based on only duration but incorporates quasi-convexity characteristics. This signifies a substantial improvement in approximation accuracy, even for substantial yield changes. The approximants based on duration and convexity are virtually exact, even for extreme yield changes.
{"title":"Duration and Bond Return Approximation: The Quasi-Convexity Effect","authors":"Winfried Hallerbach","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1429763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1429763","url":null,"abstract":"Duration is often applied to relate bond price changes to changes in the yield to maturity (or key interest rates). As the relationship between bond price and yield is non-linear, convexity characteristics can be used to improve the linear first order approximation. In this paper, we show that knowledge of a bond’s duration (or key rate durations) allows a better price return approximation than is suggested in the literature. The proposed approximations may be helpful in Value-at-Risk analyses where duration (and convexity) approximations are used as fast alternatives for full revaluation. Our main approximation formula is based on only duration but incorporates quasi-convexity characteristics. This signifies a substantial improvement in approximation accuracy, even for substantial yield changes. The approximants based on duration and convexity are virtually exact, even for extreme yield changes.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127987512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Edward R. Lawrence, Gordon V. Karels, Suchi Mishra, A. Prakash
We examine the robustness of the Fama-French three-factor model in several bear and bull market periods. Data on bull and bear market periods are from the website of Global Financial Data. The data on the monthly returns of the 25 Fama French portfolios and the explanatory variablesmR, SMB, and HML are taken from the website of Dr. Kenneth French. We test for the significance of the individual regression parameters as well as for the equality of the coefficient vectors in each of the adjacent bear-bull periods. To make sure that our tests are not influenced by heteroskadisticity we use Toyoda's test to test the equality of the coefficient vectors in each of the adjacent bull-bear periods. We find that the model performs equally well in both bear and bull periods. In comparison to earlier bull-bear periods, however, the coefficient of determination decreases significantly in later periods. Furthermore, using cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals and log likelihood ratio techniques, we find a structural change in the model in the year 2000. We use the Welch test to identify which regression parameters induce this structural change. We find that all the coefficients associated with explanatory variables undergo significant changes; however, the constant term remains insignificant. We conclude that the parameters of the Fama-French three-factor model are generally not influenced by bear and bull market conditions. This finding may make the FF three-factor model more usefulthe prediction of future bull-bear market period may become redundant in estimating the risk premium. The regime change in the FF three-factor model in the year 2000 indicates that one should use post-1999 data to compute the parameters of the FF three-factor model to estimate the risk premium.
{"title":"The Structural Changes in the Ff Three-Factor Model and its Robustness in the Bear-Bull Market Periods","authors":"Edward R. Lawrence, Gordon V. Karels, Suchi Mishra, A. Prakash","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.850307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.850307","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the robustness of the Fama-French three-factor model in several bear and bull market periods. Data on bull and bear market periods are from the website of Global Financial Data. The data on the monthly returns of the 25 Fama French portfolios and the explanatory variablesmR, SMB, and HML are taken from the website of Dr. Kenneth French. We test for the significance of the individual regression parameters as well as for the equality of the coefficient vectors in each of the adjacent bear-bull periods. To make sure that our tests are not influenced by heteroskadisticity we use Toyoda's test to test the equality of the coefficient vectors in each of the adjacent bull-bear periods. We find that the model performs equally well in both bear and bull periods. In comparison to earlier bull-bear periods, however, the coefficient of determination decreases significantly in later periods. Furthermore, using cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals and log likelihood ratio techniques, we find a structural change in the model in the year 2000. We use the Welch test to identify which regression parameters induce this structural change. We find that all the coefficients associated with explanatory variables undergo significant changes; however, the constant term remains insignificant. We conclude that the parameters of the Fama-French three-factor model are generally not influenced by bear and bull market conditions. This finding may make the FF three-factor model more usefulthe prediction of future bull-bear market period may become redundant in estimating the risk premium. The regime change in the FF three-factor model in the year 2000 indicates that one should use post-1999 data to compute the parameters of the FF three-factor model to estimate the risk premium.","PeriodicalId":149679,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Finance & Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133277285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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